风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Recommended" [2][4][48] Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by policy support, technological iteration, and globalization. The recent market has shown rapid rotation of hotspots, suggesting a favorable environment for left-side layout in less crowded sectors [4][48] - The operating rate of engineering machinery has decreased, while export demand continues to recover. In May 2025, the average operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year-on-year and 2.45 percentage points month-on-month [4][49] - Domestic demand is expected to recover due to a new round of concentrated replacement cycles, the gradual effects of real estate easing policies, and the catalytic effects of national large-scale replacement policies [49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The machinery equipment index rose by 1.18% from June 3 to June 6, 2025, ranking 18th among 31 primary industries. Sub-industries such as laser equipment (+5.08%) and engineering machinery components (+3.46%) performed well, while textile and apparel equipment (-1.77%) and engineering machinery complete machines (-1.16%) saw declines [4][48] - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with domestic sales of 12,547 units (+16.4%) and exports of 9,595 units (+19.3%) [40][49] Key Data - As of May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The production index and new orders index showed signs of recovery, indicating improved business expectations and operational activities [18][50] - The production of industrial robots in April 2025 was 71,547 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, attributed to the "old-for-new" policy and effective loan interest subsidies for equipment upgrades [29][51] Company Focus - Companies to watch include XCMG (000425.SZ), Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Zoomlion (000157.SZ) for engineering machinery, and Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ), Neway CNC (688697.SH), and Haitian Precision (601882.SH) for general equipment [4][49][50] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-tech segments such as reducers and servo systems, as well as system integrators benefiting from diversified downstream applications [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the machinery equipment industry [2][51]. Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by policy support, technological iteration, and globalization, despite recent market underperformance [4][51]. - April excavator sales increased by 17.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both domestic and export markets, supported by new replacement cycles and favorable policies [52][53]. - The manufacturing PMI recorded at 49, reflecting a slight decline, but the report suggests potential structural opportunities amidst a weak recovery [53][54]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The machinery equipment index fell by 2.22% from May 19 to May 23, ranking 30th among 31 primary industries, with all sub-industries showing declines [4][51]. - Notable declines were observed in automation equipment (-3.42%) and general equipment (-3.45%) [4][51]. Excavator Sales - In April 2025, a total of 22,142 excavators were sold, marking a 17.6% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 12,547 units (up 16.4%) and exports at 9,595 units (up 19.3%) [52][53]. - From January to April 2025, total excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a 21.4% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 31.9% and exports up 9.02% [52][53]. Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was recorded at 49, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [53][54]. - New orders PMI was at 49.2, and production PMI at 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [53][54]. Industrial Robot Production - In April 2025, industrial robot production surged by 51.5% year-on-year, totaling 71,547 units, attributed to government policies promoting equipment upgrades [54][54]. - The report suggests potential investment opportunities in high-tech segments such as reducers and servo systems, as well as system integrators benefiting from diverse application scenarios [54]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies for potential investment, including XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ) in the excavator segment [52][53]. - For the machine tool sector, companies like Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ) and Neway CNC (688697.SH) are recommended due to expected demand growth from government support [53][54].

报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消 费复苏"双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权 益市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 本文摘自：2025年5月19日发布的 轮动加速，主线掘金 顾一格 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120006 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 转债市场快速触底反弹，当前估值性价比优于4月初水平。 全市场转债价格中位数从4月初的120.94元快 速下跌至4月7日的115元，随后修复至120.13元。平价在90-110元的转债的加权平均转股溢价率先被动 拉升，后随着正股上涨逐步消化，目前为21.07%，略低于4月初的水平（22.44%）。高平价转债（平价 在130元以上）的加权平均转股溢价率较4月初明显压缩，偏债转债的估值水平也已逼近4月初水平，转债 整体性价比较4月初更高。考虑到5-6月权益市场有望继续走出升势，转债市场信用风险相对可控，低利 率背景下转债仍有较多的刚性需求。当前平衡和偏股型转债估值相对合理，跟涨弹性较好。 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和， ...

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请 详见完 整版报告。 【 食品饮料】首选新消费、高成长——食品饮料行业周报 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 固收】轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的冲击基本修复。 4 月 3 日以来，权益 市场上演了"关税冲击 - 缓和预期交易 - 协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。 4 月初中美关税摩擦升级，投资 者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击， 4 月 7 日上证指数单日下跌 7.34% ，转债相对抗 跌，随后市场逐步反弹。 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议，中美第一阶段的关税摩擦告一段 落。截至 5 月 16 日，上证指数、沪深 300 、万得全 A 指数已超过 4 月 2 日的水平，中证 1000 也已 修复至接近 4 月 2 日的水平。 回顾 2018-2019 年中美贸易摩擦，双方交锋的中后期权益市场对于利空的 ...

轮动加速，主线掘金 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 本报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消费复苏" 双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权益 市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 投资要点： | 轮动加速，主线掘金 | [Table_Authors] | 顾一格(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 转债市场点评 | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Table_Summary] 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的 冲击基本修复。4 月 3 日以来，权益市场上演了"关税冲击-缓和预 期交易-协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。4 月初中美关税摩擦升级， 投资者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击，4 月 7 日 上证指数单日下跌 7.34%，转债相对抗跌，随后市场逐步反弹。5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈 ...

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...