风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Recommended" [2][4][48] Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by policy support, technological iteration, and globalization. The recent market has shown rapid rotation of hotspots, suggesting a favorable environment for left-side layout in less crowded sectors [4][48] - The operating rate of engineering machinery has decreased, while export demand continues to recover. In May 2025, the average operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year-on-year and 2.45 percentage points month-on-month [4][49] - Domestic demand is expected to recover due to a new round of concentrated replacement cycles, the gradual effects of real estate easing policies, and the catalytic effects of national large-scale replacement policies [49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The machinery equipment index rose by 1.18% from June 3 to June 6, 2025, ranking 18th among 31 primary industries. Sub-industries such as laser equipment (+5.08%) and engineering machinery components (+3.46%) performed well, while textile and apparel equipment (-1.77%) and engineering machinery complete machines (-1.16%) saw declines [4][48] - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with domestic sales of 12,547 units (+16.4%) and exports of 9,595 units (+19.3%) [40][49] Key Data - As of May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The production index and new orders index showed signs of recovery, indicating improved business expectations and operational activities [18][50] - The production of industrial robots in April 2025 was 71,547 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, attributed to the "old-for-new" policy and effective loan interest subsidies for equipment upgrades [29][51] Company Focus - Companies to watch include XCMG (000425.SZ), Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Zoomlion (000157.SZ) for engineering machinery, and Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ), Neway CNC (688697.SH), and Haitian Precision (601882.SH) for general equipment [4][49][50] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-tech segments such as reducers and servo systems, as well as system integrators benefiting from diversified downstream applications [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the machinery equipment industry [2][51]. Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by policy support, technological iteration, and globalization, despite recent market underperformance [4][51]. - April excavator sales increased by 17.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both domestic and export markets, supported by new replacement cycles and favorable policies [52][53]. - The manufacturing PMI recorded at 49, reflecting a slight decline, but the report suggests potential structural opportunities amidst a weak recovery [53][54]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The machinery equipment index fell by 2.22% from May 19 to May 23, ranking 30th among 31 primary industries, with all sub-industries showing declines [4][51]. - Notable declines were observed in automation equipment (-3.42%) and general equipment (-3.45%) [4][51]. Excavator Sales - In April 2025, a total of 22,142 excavators were sold, marking a 17.6% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 12,547 units (up 16.4%) and exports at 9,595 units (up 19.3%) [52][53]. - From January to April 2025, total excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a 21.4% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 31.9% and exports up 9.02% [52][53]. Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was recorded at 49, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [53][54]. - New orders PMI was at 49.2, and production PMI at 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [53][54]. Industrial Robot Production - In April 2025, industrial robot production surged by 51.5% year-on-year, totaling 71,547 units, attributed to government policies promoting equipment upgrades [54][54]. - The report suggests potential investment opportunities in high-tech segments such as reducers and servo systems, as well as system integrators benefiting from diverse application scenarios [54]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies for potential investment, including XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ) in the excavator segment [52][53]. - For the machine tool sector, companies like Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ) and Neway CNC (688697.SH) are recommended due to expected demand growth from government support [53][54].

报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消 费复苏"双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权 益市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 本文摘自：2025年5月19日发布的 轮动加速，主线掘金 顾一格 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120006 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 转债市场快速触底反弹，当前估值性价比优于4月初水平。 全市场转债价格中位数从4月初的120.94元快 速下跌至4月7日的115元，随后修复至120.13元。平价在90-110元的转债的加权平均转股溢价率先被动 拉升，后随着正股上涨逐步消化，目前为21.07%，略低于4月初的水平（22.44%）。高平价转债（平价 在130元以上）的加权平均转股溢价率较4月初明显压缩，偏债转债的估值水平也已逼近4月初水平，转债 整体性价比较4月初更高。考虑到5-6月权益市场有望继续走出升势，转债市场信用风险相对可控，低利 率背景下转债仍有较多的刚性需求。当前平衡和偏股型转债估值相对合理，跟涨弹性较好。 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和， ...

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请 详见完 整版报告。 【 食品饮料】首选新消费、高成长——食品饮料行业周报 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 固收】轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的冲击基本修复。 4 月 3 日以来，权益 市场上演了"关税冲击 - 缓和预期交易 - 协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。 4 月初中美关税摩擦升级，投资 者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击， 4 月 7 日上证指数单日下跌 7.34% ，转债相对抗 跌，随后市场逐步反弹。 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议，中美第一阶段的关税摩擦告一段 落。截至 5 月 16 日，上证指数、沪深 300 、万得全 A 指数已超过 4 月 2 日的水平，中证 1000 也已 修复至接近 4 月 2 日的水平。 回顾 2018-2019 年中美贸易摩擦，双方交锋的中后期权益市场对于利空的 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...