证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 传媒 2025 年 09 月 15 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 研究支持 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 重视互联网云计算重估 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 20250908-20250912 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ...

建筑装饰 2025 年 09 月 15 日 固投持续走弱，基建投资承压 看好 ——2025 年 1-8 月投资数据点评 本期投资提示： 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 1-8 月固定资产投资持续走弱，制造业投资增速同步回落。国家统计局公布 2025 年 1-8 月投资数据，全国固定资产投资累计同比+0.5%，增速较 1-7 月-1.1pct，制造业投资同比+5.1%，增速较 1-7 月-1.1pct，固投和制造业 投资同步走弱。 ⚫ 基建投资承压，交通、水利、公用事业类投资增速均呈现压力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with stable growth in the anti-aging business and significant expansion in the lubricating oil additives segment [1][6] - The anti-aging agent business continues to expand, with a focus on increasing the proportion of high-end products and global market development [6] - The second phase of the Kangtai project is gradually releasing capacity, showing a clear trend of increasing volume and profit [6] - The life sciences business is moving towards market introduction, and the electronic-grade PI business is accelerating domestic and international integration [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to competitive pressures, with expected net profits of 5.05 billion, 6.1 billion, and 7.15 billion respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,095 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 505 million in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year growth [2] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.20 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 21.9% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.4% in 2025 [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2025, the closing price is 35.24 yuan, with a market capitalization of 7,860 million [3] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.8, indicating a relatively high safety margin compared to the historical average [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 6.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.69% [6] - Domestic demand for potassium fertilizer is supporting a high level of market activity, while the lithium carbonate market is expected to recover from its low point [6] - The company is actively pursuing exploration projects for potassium and lithium resources in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Africa [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 17.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.123 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 31.3% [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.16 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 18 [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 20.26 yuan, with a market capitalization of 107.207 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.7 [3] - The average price of potassium fertilizer in Q2 2025 was approximately 2,994 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.65% [6] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced and sold 1.9898 million tons and 1.7779 million tons of potassium fertilizer, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 20.5% [6] - For lithium carbonate, production and sales in the first half of 2025 were 20,000 tons and 20,600 tons, respectively, with significant growth in Q2 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 801 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.25% [6] - The company is expected to see significant growth in profits due to the completion of its projects in Henan, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 56% from 2025 to 2027 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 1,803 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 205 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 164% [2] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.48 yuan [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 21.5% in 2025 [2] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 12% in 2025 [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 16.79 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4,020 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35 for 2025 [2][3] - The company has a book value per share of 3.56 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.65% [3] Project Updates - The company has successfully launched the first phase of its polyurethane industrial park in Henan, with some facilities already in stable operation and supplying products [6] - The company is developing high-performance polyurethane products, which are expected to enhance its market position and profitability [6]

2025 年 09 月 15 日 中欧基金旗下两只沪深 300 指数增 强基金的配置价值分析 ——基金经理研究系列报告之八十 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 (8621)23297818× denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 模型信号：多维度提示关注沪深 300 的配置价值。（1）沪深 300 指数的成交额占比近 期有所提升；（2）沪深 300 在高质量、高股息性价比与成分股待涨占比突出的三大特征。 基本面特征——高质量的宽基指数、性价比特征——股息性价比逐渐突出、成分股细拆 维度——年内高涨幅股票占比偏低，部分高质量个股仍"待涨"；（3）从市场短期价量 指标入手，模型维持提示大盘风格占优信号，短期内 5 日 RSI 相对 20 日 RSI 大幅下滑， 信号提示强烈，此时具备强大盘属性的沪深 300 指 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 盛瀚 (8621)23297818× shenghan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 09 月 15 日 猪价跌速加快，调控力度或将加码，重视生 猪反内卷进程 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.9.8-2025.9.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 农林牧渔 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 4.8%，沪深 300 上涨 1.4%。个股涨幅前五名：众兴菌业（27.2%）、 邦基科技（19.0%）、立华股份（17.3%）、金新农（17.2%）、*ST 傲农（16.8%），跌幅前五名： 万辰集团（-11.3%）、安德利（-8.7%）、晓鸣股份（-5.7%）、乖宝宠 ...

今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3871 | -0.12 | 5.58 | 1.52 | | 深证综指 | 2462 | -0.25 | 9 | 2.36 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.61 | 9.9 | 16.21 | | 中盘指数 | 0.06 | 12.08 | 17.94 | | 小盘指数 | 0.17 | 7.73 | 13.61 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电机Ⅱ | 3.39 | 23.88 | 21.23 | | 其他电子Ⅱ | 2.77 | 14.81 | 27.17 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 2.69 | 24.86 | 60.34 | | 地面兵装Ⅱ | 2.57 | -17.72 | 38. ...

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 14 日 新增地方债发行提速，26 年提前批 额度下达 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250912 相关研究 《发行明显回落，但下周再提速— —地方债周度跟踪 20250905》 2025/09/08 《发行保持高位，但下周发行较少— —地方债周度跟踪 20250829》 2025/08/31 《新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟 踪 20250822》 2025/08/24 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 《发行开始降速，近期流动性下降 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250808》 2025/08/10 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 研 究 债 券 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 09 月 14 日 亚钾国际 (000893) ——业绩符合预期，量价维持高位，项目进展顺利 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 38.62 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 38.98/14.50 | | 市净率 | 2.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 31,352 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,870.60/12,924.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.58 | | 资产负债率% | 34.60 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 924/812 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 01-12 02-12 03-12 04-12 05-12 06-1 ...