证 券 研 究 报 告 红利回报稳中有进 燃气降本蓄势待发 2026年公用事业行业投资策略 证券分析师：王璐 A0230516080007 朱赫 A0230524070002 2025.11.18 投资分析意见 ◼ 火电：容量电价改善盈利稳定性，火电分红能力有望提升 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 水电：秋汛偏丰利好今冬明春水电蓄能，看好折旧到期和财务费用改善提升利润空间 • 2025年9月秋汛来水同比大幅增长，上游蓄水量显著提高，保障今冬明春发电量无虞。水电进入资本开支下降阶段，降息周期中可通过债务结构优化等方式降低 利息支出。2026年是三峡水电站机组折旧到期的小高峰，打开盈利空间。推荐长江电力、国投电力、川投能源和华能水电等大水电公司。 • 火电稳定的容量收入来源有效对冲了电量电价波动的风险，使火电企业的盈利结构从 "单一电量依赖" 转向 "电量收入 + 容量收入 + 辅助服务收入" 的多元 化模式。推荐煤电一体化的国电电力、内蒙华电，产业链布局的广州发展。以及大机组占比高的大唐发电、华能国际（A+H）、华电国际。 ◼ 核电：商业模式类比水电，成长性提升估值水平 • 核电燃 ...

证券分析师：任杰 A0230522070003 宋涛 A0230516070001 联系人： 郝子禹 A0230524060003 2025.11.18 投资要点：出海、成长与复苏共舞 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 出海、成长与复苏共舞 2026年建筑材料行业投资策略 ◼ 2025年回顾：水泥与玻纤基本面修复较强，消费建材多支个股表现出自身独特能力；反内卷、特种布、出海带动下建材指数表现出色。 ◼ 2026年展望： 1）建材企业出海正同时进入布局加速期与初步收获期，中国企业在新兴市场的市场竞争力进一步巩固； 2）过去4年积 极应对市场变化，进行渠道结构、产品结构、销售结构深度调整的优势公司将进一步受益； 3）内需降幅有望收窄，反内卷及市场化出 清带动顺周期板块供给收缩，盈利有望进一步改善；同时具备优势现金流、盈利稳定性强、分红具备吸引力的企业有望跑出相对优势； 4）高景气玻璃纤维盈利贡献有望进一步扩大。 ◼ 1.出海先锋：先发布局开花结果，后发布局落地可期。重点关注华新建材、科达制造、西部水泥。 ◼ 2.渠道变革：主动调整求变，逆境展现企业经营能力。重点关注 ...

时发 行业电 相关研究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 若研究报 证券分析师 数据闭环 周一刻钟，大事快评（W130） 我们认为当算法模型真正实现由 PB 级数据驱动时，将形成难以复制的竞争壁垒。即便 ● 竞争对手获取了模型架构或挖走核心人员，若缺乏底层庞大的数据积累，也无法在短期 内复刻同等能力的算法。这与早期通过购买"自盒"方案进行简单优化的阶段截然不 同，单纯依靠堆砌服务器已无法解决问题。我们认为，踏实构建数据闭环将为企业带来 半年至一年的确定性领先优势。基于此逻辑,我们认为小鹏、理想及华为等头部企业在 智能驾驶领域已建立起半年至一年的领先优势，其技术护城河具备高确定性。 投资分析意见：基于科技+国央企改革两条主线, 1）推荐国内强α主机厂如比亚迪、吉 ● 利、小鹏：2）智能化趋势：华为鸿蒙高端智能的典型代表：关注江淮汽车、赛力斯等， 推荐理想汽车、科博达、德赛西威、经纬恒润;3)国央企整合推荐关注上汽集团、东风 集团股份、长安汽车；4）具备强业绩增长、机器人布局，或海外拓展能力的零部件企 业：推荐福耀玻璃、新泉股份、福达股份、双环传动、银轮股份、无锡振华等，关注敏 实集团、拓普集团。 核心风险：原材 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 品牌端成长为王，上下游边际改善 2026年美容护理行业投资策略 证券分析师：王立平 A0230511040052 王盼 A0230523120001 聂霜 A0230524120002 2025.11.18 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 4 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究；注:医美指数采用申万医疗美容主要成分股爱美客、华熙生物、锦波生物、昊海生科的 ①受Q1美妆社零表现平淡， 头部国货品牌控费影响GMV 表现等因素影响，SW美容护 理表现略显疲软 图1：2025年以来美容护理板块行情复盘 ②38促销国货表现突出，板块关注度提升，同时港股新消费 毛戈平、上美股份等标的，助力板块抢滩新消费投资热点 ③25H2需求端疲软，渠道费用高企，国 际品牌反击等问题持续影响业绩表现，同 时交易层面受TMT等板块高涨等影响， SW美容护理指数回调并跑输大盘 平均累计涨跌幅计算而来；因此不完全符合SW美容护理指数走势。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 回顾美容护理板块表现：SW美容护理指数经过22-24年的回调，于25H1回暖，期间最高涨幅超1 ...

Core Insights - The insurance sector is characterized by a "high elasticity" label, with a significant profit increase driven by investment performance, as evidenced by a 68% year-on-year profit growth in Q3 2025, with investment performance contributing 79% of the pre-tax profit increment for the first three quarters [3][11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strong rule of law, strict regulation, risk mitigation, and development promotion, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing the legal framework and regulatory environment for the insurance industry [3][27][28] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost dividend insurance, while property insurance is undergoing comprehensive governance to improve high-risk insurance types [3][19][27] - The strategic positioning of insurance assets is evolving, with a notable increase in stock and fund investments by listed insurance companies, projected to reach an additional 875.2 to 943.4 billion yuan in A-shares from 2025 to 2027 [3][11][19] - The insurance sector's valuation recovery is anticipated to continue, with recommendations to focus on undervalued, high-elasticity stocks such as China Life, Ping An, and others [3][19][21] Review of Performance - The insurance sector index has risen by 13.5% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.1 percentage points [6][10] - In Q3 2025, the total net profit of listed insurance companies reached 426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, with significant contributions from investment performance [11][12][19] Policy Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines key directions for the insurance industry, focusing on high-quality development, technological independence, and comprehensive reform [24][28] - The regulatory environment is expected to remain stringent, with a focus on risk mitigation and the promotion of sustainable growth in the insurance sector [27][31] Liability and Asset Management - The "anti-involution" policy is driving a shift towards dividend insurance, while property insurance is seeing a rationalization of competition [3][19][27] - The strategic focus on asset allocation is expected to enhance the investment capabilities of insurance funds, with a projected increase in equity market allocations [3][11][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on undervalued, high-elasticity stocks within the insurance sector, highlighting companies such as China Life and Ping An as key investment opportunities [3][19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings (688036) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year [7] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [7] - The company is actively developing practical AI features to enhance local user experience in Africa and South Asia [7] - The mobile internet business has reached a monthly active user count exceeding 10 million, with significant progress in monetization [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 74.2 billion yuan to 70.3 billion yuan, and net profit forecast has been reduced from 6.2 billion yuan to 4.1 billion yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 68.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.3% [6] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to be 70.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is forecasted at 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 20.3% in 2025, slightly recovering from 19.5% in 2025Q1-3 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.6% in 2025, up from 10.7% in 2025Q1-3 [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Investment Strategy Overview - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with a 32% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 14 percentage points [3][11] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "value reversal" and "technology empowerment" as the main themes for 2026, focusing on original innovation and breakthroughs in key technologies [4] Emerging Industries - Robotics is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2026, with attention on Tesla's humanoid robot product iterations and changes in the domestic supply chain [5][27] - Unmanned logistics is gaining traction globally, driven by reduced labor costs and improved economic efficiency, positioning it as a key player in manufacturing upgrades [5][38] - The low-altitude economy is being supported by government initiatives, with a focus on logistics and emergency rescue applications [42][43] Economic Drivers - The PCB industry is experiencing increased demand for drilling equipment due to the expansion of AI PCB production [50] - The tool industry is seeing a cyclical price transmission, with a notable recovery expected in Q3 2025 [66] - The lithium battery sector is witnessing explosive growth in demand, with global shipments projected to reach 5,127 GWh by 2030 [69] - The gas turbine market is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by AI infrastructure expansion [79] Equipment Updates - The engineering machinery sector is seeing unexpected growth in excavator sales, with a 7.77% year-on-year increase in October 2025 [88] - The railway investment is entering a critical phase, with fixed asset investments expected to reach historical highs in 2025 [99] Key Companies - Notable companies in the robotics sector include Tesla, Huawei, and various startups like UBTECH and Figure AI, which are rapidly advancing their product offerings [30][31] - In the PCB equipment market, companies like Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech are maintaining strong market positions with significant revenue growth [51][54] - The gas turbine supply chain includes major players like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Siemens Energy, with a focus on domestic component replacement [79]

证 券 研 究 报 告 盈利新周期，估值新起点，迎银行长牛 2026年银行业投资策略 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 站在当下，我们更为坚定地看好银行板块正处于长牛修复的起点：2018年以来银行板块从"破净"到估值深度承压（最低0.49倍PB）再到当前行业整体 仍仅约0.7倍PB，核心压制无外乎两点："看不清的风险趋势"、"难以扭转的盈利下行"。相对乐观的是，这两点在当下都已"拨云见日"。 ◼ 不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国 和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超 70%分位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively developing practical AI features to enhance user experience in local languages, particularly in Africa and South Asia [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and gross margins, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on comparative PE ratios [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 70.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 4.10 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 20.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 16.6% [6] Market Position - The company ranks third globally in smartphone market share with a 14.0% share, and fourth in global smartphone market share with 8.7% [7] - In Africa, the company holds over 40% market share in the smartphone segment, leading in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India as well [7] Business Development - The company's mobile internet business has reached over 10 million monthly active users, exploring localized business models [7] - The company has invested 2.14 billion yuan in R&D for the first three quarters of 2025, representing 4.32% of its revenue [7]