双贲驭险,中期伏波 -- 申万宏源 2026 年全球资产配置投资策略 展望 2026 年, 全球资产配置环境或从美联储预防式降息, 逐步过渡至财政 与货币政策双宽松驱动的再通胀周期，密切关注年内流动性拐点对资产轮 动的影响。国内大类资产逻辑也有望逐步从流动性宽松推动转向基本面趋 势准动。 | 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3972 -0.46 3.45 -1.16 | | 深证综指 2512 0.01 4.79 -0.7 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -0.65 | 1.69 | 18.16 | | 中盘指数 --0.32 -- | 2.64 | 27.58 | | 小盘指数 | 5.26 | 25.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海川 | 6.47 | 18.46 | 24.24 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 6.2 | 26.46 | 57.21 | | 地面兵装II | 6.05 | 4.27 | 47.35 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 全球关税博弈变量逐步落定，不改核心制造全球竞争力，看好两大产业链、一个涨价周期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 整固蓄势，挖掘新消费，看好全球制造 2026年纺织服装行业投资策略 证券分析师：王立平 A0230511040052 求佳峰 A0230523060001 刘佩 A0230523070002 研究支持： 朱本伦 A0230125090001 联系人： 求佳峰 A0230523060001 2025.11.18 投资要点 ◼ 回顾25年纺织服装板块表现，截至11月14日，SW纺织服饰指数上涨16.9%，相对收益位居 全市场第17位。展望26年，我们认为多数品牌仍处于复苏进程，制造板块确定性更高。 ◼ 内需25年低位整固，26-27年有望回暖，围绕年轻消费群体特征，挖掘新消费高景气方向 • 高性能户外，当前低渗透率，未来高空间：24年中国户外高性能服饰市场规模1027亿元（同比 +17%），品牌市占率CR10仅27%，头部格局未定，推荐【安踏体育/波司登/滔搏/361度】，建议关 注已递交招股书的【伯希和】、奥运营销催化【李宁】、索康尼运营优异的【特 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the rapid development of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, highlighting that the number of clinical trials has reached a global leading position, with a significant increase in new drug approvals [3][5][7] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from a "fast follower" to an "innovation leader" model, actively engaging in cutting-edge fields such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, and mRNA vaccines, with a notable increase in the number of products in late-stage development [8][11][18] - The report identifies two main investment directions: the transformation of biotech companies into biopharma and the revaluation of traditional pharmaceutical companies during their innovation transition, suggesting specific companies to watch in both categories [3][4] Group 2 - China's integration into the global innovative drug value chain is deepening, with a growing number of global multi-center clinical trials led by Chinese companies, indicating a shift in the global drug development landscape [3][24] - The report notes that the contribution of Chinese companies to global clinical trials has significantly increased, with a projection of 1,903 innovative drug clinical trials registered in China by 2024 [7][24] - The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in high-potential therapeutic areas, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with substantial market shares in these segments [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising trend of BD (business development) transactions involving Chinese assets, with a notable increase in transaction amounts and numbers, indicating China's growing influence in the global pharmaceutical innovation landscape [33][44] - It highlights that the majority of license-out projects are now in early stages, reflecting the international interest in early-stage Chinese innovations, particularly in oncology and metabolic therapies [39][44] - The report points out that major multinational corporations (MNCs) are increasingly seeking next-generation blockbuster products from China to fill revenue gaps due to impending patent expirations [62][66]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is at the beginning of a systematic valuation uplift, with the implied equity risk premium (ERP) reaching a low of approximately 5%, indicating potential for further downward adjustment in the long term [10][20][28] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's industry structure has significantly changed over the past decade, with new economy sectors like technology surpassing traditional sectors in market capitalization and trading volume, which should lead to an upward adjustment in valuation levels [28][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the technology sector, with companies like Alibaba Cloud showing strong revenue growth and profitability improvements due to AI-related services [87][90] Group 2 - The report discusses the interwoven dynamics of fundamentals and liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, noting that improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to enhance risk appetite and attract foreign investment [4][62] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant inflow of foreign capital, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which is expected to reduce the offshore discount and align valuations more closely with global markets [31][35] - The report identifies the cyclical themes and dividend-paying stocks as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and utilities, which are expected to benefit from improving economic indicators [91]

证 券 研 究 报 告 乘势外资东风，锚定核心资产 2026年港股行业比较投资策略 证券分析师：刘雅婧 A0230521080001 林丽梅 A0230513090001 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 冯彧 A0230525080001 王胜 A0230511060001 联系人：刘雅婧 A0230521080001 2025.11.17 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 ◼ 四、2025年外资已在重估中国资产，后续A-H溢价有望持续收敛。2025年港股IPO活跃，外资参与度环比过去两年也有明显上升， 截止2025年11月14日，外资基石投资者占全部基石投资者占比分别约为41.6%、40.4%、59.7%，合计投资金额分别约为64亿港元、 110亿港元、311亿港元。与此同时，2025年以来A-H溢价不断收敛，隐含外资对在中国香港上市的核心资产关注度提高（港股估值 更贵的代表性公司为宁德时代、药明康德、招商银行等）， 后续多家高端制造企业赴港上市，港股市场代表中国转型和竞争力的资产 将逐渐增多，提供更多可买资产。静态估值来看，恒生指数、恒生科技指数以10Y中国国债作为无风 ...

投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 亚钾国际 (000893) ——业绩符合预期，钾肥景气继续上行，在建项目有望年 内投建 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,548 | 3,867 | 6,550 | 9,825 | 13,095 | | 同比增长率（%） | -9.0 | 55.8 | 84.6 | 50.0 | 33.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 950 | 1,363 | 1,887 | 3,114 | 4,359 | | 同比增长率（%） | -23.1 | 163.0 | 98.5 | 65.0 | 40.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.04 | 1.49 | 2.04 | 3.37 | 4.72 | | 毛利率（%） | 49.5 | 58.9 | 54.7 | 57.9 | 59.5 | | ROE（%） | 7.9 | 10.4 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 86.88 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 114.52/63.30 | | 市净率 | 4.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.35 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 19,214 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,972.03/13,202.00 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.34 | | 资产负债率% | 53.42 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 265/221 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 11-18 12-18 01-18 02-18 03-18 04-18 05-18 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 江丰电子 沪深300指数 ...

音增双 高品 2025 年 11 月 17 日 上市节奏放缓，收益创近期新低 完增市场双周报 2025.11.03-2025.11.16 本期投资提示: 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 新增节奏放缓, 过会项目数增加。截至 2025 年 11 月 17 日, 上两周 (11 月 3 日至 11 月 16 日) 新增 12 宗定增项目 (其中竞价 5 宗)，环比减少 10 宗; 终止 8 宗 (其中竞价 4 宗)， 环比减少 8 宗; 发审委通过 12 宗(其中竞价 6 宗)，环比增加 5 宗; 证监会通过 2 宗 (均 为竞价项目），环比减少 13 宗；处于正常待审阶段的定增项目共 624 个，其中已获发审委 审核通 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市两段论 申万宏源2026年A股投资策略 证券分析师： 傅静涛 A0230516110001 程翔 A0230518080007 韦春泽 A0230524060005 林丽梅 A0230513090001 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 冯彧 A0230525080001 金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 陆灏川 A0230520080001 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 李一民 A0230515080002 董易 A0230519110003 2025.11.17 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一、全球竞争加剧，已经是无法回避的时代背景。"十五五"规划外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"，直面话语权竞争。A股也应拥抱"竞争思维"，不要惧怕竞争：竞争事件催化 确实仍会冲击风险偏好，但竞争加剧已成事实，A股正在转向定价竞争的成败得失。 ◼ 优化外循环是"十五五"规划表述变化较多的内容。对 ...