Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported an operating revenue of 182.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 860 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][6] - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 44.6 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 1.45 billion yuan, reducing the loss by 2.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4][6] - The company is actively expanding its capacity and international route network, having introduced 78 new aircraft in 2025, bringing the total fleet to 972, with plans for further growth in the coming years [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total operating revenue for 2026 is 200.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.12 billion yuan in 2026, with a significant increase forecasted for 2027 at 9.82 billion yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 9.5% in 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.1% [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - Passenger revenue for 2025 was 156.7 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, while cargo revenue reached 19.7 billion yuan, up 5.2% [6] - The company’s operational cost per seat kilometer decreased by 4% to 0.42 yuan, benefiting from lower fuel prices and improved fuel efficiency [6] Strategic Developments - The company plans to introduce new international routes, including Beijing-Helsinki and Xiamen-Vientiane, to capitalize on the growing demand for international travel [6] - The company’s fleet expansion strategy is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market, with a focus on increasing international capacity [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.09 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 892 million yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year [8] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 91%, with a total cash dividend of 810 million yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 5.5% [8] - The gross profit margin has shown a steady increase, reaching 45.1% for 2025, despite a rise in operating expenses [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store operations and has seen a reduction in inventory levels, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 16.33 billion yuan for 2026, 17.74 billion yuan for 2027, and 19.27 billion yuan for 2028, with expected growth rates of 8.2%, 8.6%, and 8.6% respectively [7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.003 billion yuan for 2026, 1.129 billion yuan for 2027, and 1.285 billion yuan for 2028, with growth rates of 12.4%, 12.6%, and 13.8% respectively [7] - The earnings per share are projected to be 0.37 yuan for 2026, 0.42 yuan for 2027, and 0.48 yuan for 2028 [7] Segment Performance - The children's clothing segment (Balabala) generated revenue of 10.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth of 5.2%, while the casual wear segment (Semir) saw a revenue decline of 3.2% to 4.05 billion yuan [8] - Online sales reached 6.97 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, while offline direct sales increased by 30.3% to 2.02 billion yuan [8]

Core Insights - The report maintains the judgment of a "two-phase upward market," currently in a "first-phase upward market" followed by a consolidation phase, with potential upward clues in the A-share market yet to be fully priced in [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on global comparative advantages in China's energy security and supply chain safety, capturing opportunities in the outbound chain Alpha [2][11] Market Performance - The "Top Ten Gold Stocks" portfolio from Shenwan Hongyuan experienced a decline of 6.92% from March 1 to March 31, 2026, with 9 A-shares averaging a drop of 6.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.22 percentage points [11] - Since the first release of gold stocks on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase of the gold stock portfolio has reached 434.39%, with the A-share portfolio rising by 337.25% [2][11] Investment Recommendations - Suggested sectors for investment include renewable energy, transportation, basic chemicals, and public utilities, focusing on cyclical sectors [2][11] - The report highlights specific stocks such as China Merchants Energy, Shijia Photon, and Guizhou Moutai as part of the recommended portfolio, emphasizing their potential for growth [3][11] Company-Specific Insights - China Merchants Energy is positioned as a core asset in energy security, benefiting from market dynamics that increase freight rates due to geopolitical factors [11] - Shijia Photon is noted for its strong position in the optical chip industry, with significant growth potential in its product offerings [11] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to maintain stable pricing and market growth, supported by market reforms [11] Industry Trends - The report indicates a strong upward trend in the advanced packaging market, with a projected growth from $51.9 billion in 2024 to $78.6 billion by 2028, highlighting the increasing demand for high-end epoxy encapsulants [15] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Huahai Chengke and Yangnong Chemical showing resilience and growth potential amid fluctuating raw material prices [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huahai Chengke, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Insights - Huahai Chengke is a leading domestic manufacturer of epoxy encapsulation materials, transitioning from domestic substitution to global supply through the acquisition of Hengsuohuawei, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and market position [6][7]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high demand, with significant growth in advanced packaging materials, which are crucial for the evolution of semiconductor technology [6][7]. - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth for Huahai Chengke, with projected net profits of 107 million, 139 million, and 189 million yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 99% from 2025 to 2028 [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening in Semiconductor Packaging - Huahai Chengke has established itself in the epoxy encapsulation material sector, with a focus on high-end product development accelerated by the acquisition of Hengsuohuawei [15]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 332 million yuan in 2024, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, and 458 million yuan in 2025, a 38.1% increase [5][21]. 2. Rapid Development of Advanced Packaging - The storage industry is leading the semiconductor boom, driving demand for materials [32]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach 791.7 billion USD in 2025, with a 25.6% year-on-year growth [32]. 3. Strengthening Competitive Advantage - The acquisition of Hengsuohuawei has positioned Huahai Chengke as the second-largest global producer of epoxy encapsulation materials, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [6][7]. - The company is focusing on technological advancements and expanding its product offerings to maintain its competitive edge in the high-end market [6][7]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Analysis - The report anticipates significant profit growth, with net profits expected to increase dramatically over the next few years, supported by a robust market for advanced packaging materials [5][7]. - The company's PEG ratio for 2026 is projected at 0.99, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported stable net profit on a comparable basis, with expectations for increased order demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [1] - The company demonstrated resilience in a challenging trade environment, with a slight decline in net profit attributed to one-time gains in the previous year [7] - The company maintains a strong cash reserve and a high dividend payout ratio, indicating financial stability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 28,663 million RMB (15% YoY growth) - 2025: 30,994 million RMB (8% YoY growth) - 2026E: 32,461 million RMB (5% YoY growth) - 2027E: 34,179 million RMB (5% YoY growth) - 2028E: 36,019 million RMB (5% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2024: 6,241 million RMB (37% YoY growth) - 2025: 5,825 million RMB (-7% YoY decline) - 2026E: 6,031 million RMB (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 6,519 million RMB (8% YoY growth) - 2028E: 6,900 million RMB (6% YoY growth) [6] - The company has a projected PE ratio of 10 for 2026 and 9 for 2028, with a target market capitalization of 915 billion RMB, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current market value [7] Revenue Structure Analysis - The revenue structure for the company in 2025 shows strong growth in leisure categories, with sales figures as follows: - Sports: 209.7 million RMB (+5.9% YoY) - Leisure: 84.1 million RMB (+16.7% YoY) - Underwear: 14.0 million RMB (-2.3% YoY) - Others: 2.1 million RMB (-3.4% YoY) [7] - Revenue by region indicates that the European and American markets outperformed China, with respective growth rates of +20.6% and +21.0% [7] - Major clients such as Uniqlo and Adidas have shown consistent growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 performance, which met market expectations, with a revenue of 1.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.54% [4][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 310 million yuan, down 12.56% year-on-year, but a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 148.57% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.4 yuan for every 10 shares [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company from 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - Total revenue is projected to decline to 1.073 billion yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 1.468 billion yuan by 2028 [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 108 million yuan in 2025 to 238 million yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 29.3% in 2025 to 34.1% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [5][7]. Business Performance and Strategic Initiatives - The company has seen a comprehensive improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 29.28% in 2025, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 10.0%, up 3.85 percentage points [6]. - The fastest growth segment is the brand online management services, which saw a revenue increase of 8.63% year-on-year [6]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance service capabilities, with expectations for significant growth in AI-driven business segments in 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.9% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations. The total operating revenue for 2025 is projected to be 1.09 trillion yuan, a decline of 5.76% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.168 yuan per share (before tax) for 2025, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 18.10%, which is an increase of 2.31 percentage points compared to 2024 [6] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with expected net profits of 21.6 billion yuan and 21.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decline in growth rates [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: 1,160,311 million yuan (2024), 1,093,494 million yuan (2025), 1,082,061 million yuan (2026E), 1,080,013 million yuan (2027E), and 1,095,253 million yuan (2028E) [5][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 27,887 million yuan (2024), 22,892 million yuan (2025), 21,573 million yuan (2026E), 21,520 million yuan (2027E), and 22,277 million yuan (2028E) [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 7.9% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2028 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 was below market expectations, with a significant decline in net profit and core net profit, leading to a generous dividend payout with a dividend yield of 4.5% [7] - The company aims for a sales target of 100 billion in 2026, despite a 7.2% decline in sales amount in 2025 [7] - The company has a strong cash position and low financing costs, maintaining a green status under the "three red lines" policy [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 86,457 million in 2025 to 83,518 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.4% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to drop significantly to 61 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5% [6][8] - The company’s cash position was 467.6 billion in 2025, with a total debt of 1,048 billion, indicating a stable financial structure [7]

上 市 公 司 房地产 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 31 日 中国海外发展 (00688) ——业绩下滑符合预期，投资加码、融资改善 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 11.55 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8374.3 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.12/11.36 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,264.13 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 10,944.88 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8830 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -15% 5% 25% HSCEI 中国海外发展 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 1970s, during the two oil crises, the gold price increased nearly 20 - fold, rising from an average monthly price of $35 per ounce to a maximum of $675 per ounce. The gold price trends during the two oil crises had different rhythms and magnitudes of increase [3][8]. - In the short - term, the gold price has significantly corrected. This is mainly due to the high oil prices under the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and liquidity tightening. In the long - term, the trend of de - globalization still exists, and it is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold [3]. - Referring to the two oil crises, as oil prices remain high, the gold price will resume its upward trend. The central bank's gold purchases will dominate the rise of the gold price, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [58][62][74]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Two Oil Crisis Reviews 3.1.1 First Oil Crisis (1973.10 - 1974.3) - **Oil Price**: After the outbreak of the Fourth Middle - East War in October 1973, the oil price rose from $3 per barrel to $13 per barrel. After the cancellation of the oil embargo on the US in March 1974, the oil price declined but stabilized at around $10 per barrel [8][9]. - **Inflation**: The rapid increase in oil prices led to double - digit CPI in the US in 1974, with a peak of 12.2% in November 1974 [10]. - **Economic Recession**: The US GDP growth rate started to decline in Q4 1973, turned negative in Q2 1974, and returned to positive growth five quarters later [11]. - **Gold Price**: In the early stage, the gold price fluctuated due to the strong US dollar index. From November 1973 to April 1974, it rose rapidly by 81%. After the oil price peaked in March 1974, the gold price briefly declined and then rose to a new high. From 1975 - 1976.8, due to economic recovery and the selling of gold by the IMF and the US Treasury, the gold price corrected by nearly 40% [17][19][22]. 3.1.2 Second Oil Crisis (1978 end - 1980 end) - **Oil Price**: Due to the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $13 per barrel to $43 per barrel, with an increase of about 180% in 1979 [29]. - **Inflation**: The inflation rate in the US accelerated, with the CPI year - on - year growth rate rising from 6.7% at the end of 1977 to 13.3% in April 1980 [29]. - **Economic Situation**: The US economy fell into stagflation again, with the GDP growth rate starting to decline in Q2 1979 [29]. - **Gold Price**: In 1979, due to the weak US dollar index, the gold price rose by 119%. In 1980, under the strong monetary tightening policy, the gold price first reached a peak and then corrected. After 1980, as the US gradually emerged from inflation, the gold price started a downward trend [27][30][33]. 3.2 Current Gold Price Analysis - **Oil Price Increase**: In late February 2026, due to the full - scale escalation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil price soared from $70 per barrel to over $110 per barrel, with an increase of nearly 50% [43]. - **Gold Price Decline**: The gold price did not rise but fell, mainly due to the strong US dollar, inflation concerns, and liquidity shocks. The gold price also moved in the same direction as the stock market, mainly affected by liquidity shocks [44][48][56]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Gold - **Resumption of Gold Price Increase**: Referring to the two oil crises, as long as the oil price remains high for a long time or has a second jump, forming a strong inflation expectation, and the macro - economy shows a decline in economic growth due to high oil prices, the gold price will resume its upward trend in a stagflation - like environment [61]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have accelerated their gold purchases. It is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [62][73][74]. 3.4 Recommended Targets - The report recommends paying attention to Zijin Gold International, Chifeng Gold, Shan Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. [3]