2025 年 09 月 14 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 房地产 地方继续出台地产支持政策，碧桂园重新被纳入港股通 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/09/06-2025/09/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 1.1 新房成交量 1.1.1 成交周环比：上周 34 城周成交环比下降 12%，一二线环比下 降 12%、三四线环比下降 8% 上周(9.6-9.12)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 194.9 万平米，环比下降 11.9%，较 24 年周均成交 291.7 万平米下降 33.2%，较本年周均成交 233.3 万平米下降 16.4%。 其中一二线城市合计成交 182.7 万平米，环比下降 12.1%，较 24 年周均成交 261.2 万平米下降 30.1%，较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the internet e-commerce industry, recommending investments in Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo [4]. Core Insights - The online retail penetration rate continues to rise, with the total retail sales in the first seven months of 2025 reaching 28.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The online retail sales amounted to 8.7 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate increase of 1.2 percentage points to 30.6% [4][7]. - Major e-commerce platforms have accelerated their growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume), with JD.com leading the industry due to favorable national subsidy policies during the 618 shopping festival. Alibaba and Pinduoduo also showed healthy growth, while Meituan faced pressure due to intensified competition [4][13]. - The integration of AI into e-commerce platforms is driving significant changes, with the AI cloud market expected to grow by 149% to 51.8 billion yuan in 2025. Leading companies like Alibaba Cloud are experiencing substantial revenue growth from AI-related products [4][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Growth in Online Consumption and Increased Focus on Instant Retail - Instant retail and e-commerce are showing initial synergy effects, with platforms experiencing healthy growth in their core businesses. The rapid expansion of instant retail is changing fulfillment models, with significant growth in express delivery volumes [4][7]. - The 618 shopping festival saw a notable increase in sales, with instant retail sales growing by 19% year-on-year to 29.6 billion yuan, indicating the effectiveness of collaborative efforts among major platforms [4][39]. 2. Impact of National Subsidies and Investment in Instant Retail - The report highlights the deepening impact of national subsidies and investments in instant retail, leading to a divergence in revenue growth among major platforms. JD.com outperformed expectations, while Meituan's performance was below expectations due to competitive pressures [4][47]. - Revenue growth rates for major platforms in Q2 2025 were as follows: JD.com at 22.4%, Meituan at 11.7%, Pinduoduo at 7.2%, and Alibaba at 1.8% [4][47]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the 618 shopping festival, combined with national subsidies and investments in instant retail, has driven overall industry traffic upward, although profit margins are under pressure. The platforms' profitability is becoming increasingly differentiated, with JD.com and Pinduoduo showing strong performance [4][47]. - The ongoing investments in AI and new business layouts are expected to provide structural improvements for long-term growth, reinforcing a positive outlook for the platforms' future development [4][47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The company reported a 12.0% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.125 billion yuan, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 499 million yuan, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 40.61% year-on-year to 54 million yuan, aligning with market expectations [7][6] - The company is undergoing transformation and investment, with a projected net profit of 165 million, 207 million, and 241 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 16.5% respectively. The current market valuation corresponds to P/E ratios of 55x, 44x, and 38x for the respective years [7][6] - The company has outlined four strategic focuses: high-end positioning, national expansion, health empowerment, and youth engagement, which are expected to enhance operational performance and profitability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 2.309 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 36.6% [6][9] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 38.41%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix optimization and cost reductions [7] - The company’s cash flow from sales in the first half of 2025 was 1.102 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [7]

2025 年 09 月 12 日 通胀不再是联储核心矛盾？ ——美国 8 月 CPI 点评 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 王茂宇 (8621)23297818× wangmy2@swsresearch.com 美国 8 月整体 CPI 表现基本符合预期，但核心 CPI 结构呈现两大特征：关税对商品通胀传导有 限、超级核心服务通胀走弱，市场对于联储年内降息三次预期再度强化。 一、概览：8 月美国 CPI 基本符合市场预期，但结构显示通胀压力有限 从表面来看，8 月美国 CPI 基本符合市场预期，但结构显示通胀压力有限。美国 8 月 CPI 同比 2.9%，市场预期 2.9%，环比 0.4%，市场预期 ...

-注册制新股纵览 20250912 投资提示: 2025 年 09 月 12 日 云汉芯城：国内领先的电子元器件线上分销商 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 任奕璇 (8621)23297818× renyx2@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，云汉芯城 1.47 分，位于总分的 19.6%分位。云汉芯城于 ○ 2025 年 9 月 11 日招股，将在创业板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算云汉芯城 AHP 得分分别为 1.47 分、2.21 分，分别位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分的 19.6%、38.9%分位, 分别处于下游偏上、中游偏上水平。 假设以 95%入围率计，中性预期情形下，云汉芯城网下 A、 B 两类配售对象的配售比例分别是：0.0223%、 ...

2025 年 09 月 12 日 云汉芯城：国内领先的电子元器件线上分销商 ——注册制新股纵览 20250912 投资提示： 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 任奕璇 (8621)23297818× renyx2@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 相关研究 - ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，云汉芯城 1.47 分，位于总分的 19.6%分位。云汉芯城于 2025 年 9 月 11 日招股，将在创业板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算云汉芯城 AHP 得分分别为 1.47 分、2.21 分，分别位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分的 19.6%、38.9%分位， 分别处于下游偏上、中游偏上水平。假设以 95%入围率计，中 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9][8] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned for growth under the support of its major shareholder, the Jianfa Group, which enhances its operational platform and opportunities for development [8][9] - The company is actively seeking transformation opportunities in urban renewal and business extension, aligning with national policies promoting urban development [49][8] - The construction business is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues and profits increasing over the next few years, reflecting resilience in a challenging market [9][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jianfa Hecheng, established in 1995, specializes in engineering supervision, design consulting, and project management, and was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016 [18] - The company became controlled by the Xiamen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission after Jianfa Group acquired a 29.01% stake in 2021 [18] Business Expansion - The company has rapidly expanded its construction business, with revenues from this segment reaching 57 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 86.2% of total revenue [24][22] - The construction business has seen a significant increase in revenue share from 30.2% in 2022 to 86.2% in 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards this area [24][22] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 9.371 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.8% [7] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 122 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.4% [7] - The company’s earnings per share are projected to be 0.47 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 23X [9][7] Market Opportunities - The urban renewal initiative is anticipated to become a new growth engine for the construction industry, as the market transitions from new construction to renovation and maintenance of existing structures [49][8] - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to expand its capabilities in new materials and technologies, enhancing its competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [48][8] Investment Analysis - The report estimates a market value of approximately 40 billion yuan for the company based on a conservative price-to-earnings multiple of 25.0X for 2027, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the current market capitalization of 28.3 billion yuan [9][8]

上 市 公 司 建筑装饰 2025 年 09 月 12 日 建发合诚 (603909) ——建发系协同发展迎新，存量蓝海市场打造机遇 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.86 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 11.35/6.70 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.10 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 2,831 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.31/12,979.89 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | --- | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.19 | | 资产负债率% | 76.18 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 261/261 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11 05-11 06-11 07-11 ...

电力设备 2025 年 09 月 12 日 奥特维 (688516) 上 市 公 司 ——光伏设备主业反转，固态/储能/BC 业务爆发在即 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 46.02 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 66.33/31.08 | | 市净率 | 3.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.35 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 14,479 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.31/12,979.89 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.79 | | 资产负债率% | 72.70 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 315/315 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11 05-1 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 ——业绩不及预期，纤维规模持续扩张，超美斯贡献第二 成长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 649 | 483 | 1,135 | 1,366 | 1,577 | | 同比增长率（%） | 1.4 | 89.7 | 74.9 | 20.3 | 15.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 130 | 66 | 200 | 248 | 300 | | 同比增长率（%） | -15.3 | 41.1 | 53.3 | 24.2 | 21.1 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.89 | 1.10 | 1.34 | | 毛利率（%） | 37.7 | 31.2 | 35.8 | 36.7 | 38.0 | | ROE（%） | 9.7 | 4.8 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 15.9 | | 市盈率 ...