继往开来 攻坚克难 资本市场赋能普惠金融高质量发展 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 证 券 研 究 报 告 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 普惠金融高质量发展新阶段，资本市场重要性凸显。2023年10月，国务院印发《国务院关于推进普惠金融高质量发展的实施意见》，《实施意见》 重点提及"提升资本市场服务普惠金融效能"，凸显资本市场重要性。理解高质量普惠金融，首先明确两点内容，1）何为"重点领域"，《实施意 见》提出四大领域，小微企业、乡村振兴、民生领域和绿色低碳；2）理解"多层次机构组织体系"，一方面，各类银行机构强调分工明确、各具特 色、有序竞争；另一方面，其他各类机构特色化补充，凸显资本市场的重要性。 ◼ 小微企业：构建"北交所-新三板-区域性股权市场"梯度化中小企业培育体系。1）打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地，截至目前，北交所上市公司数 量282家，民营企业数量占比达86%、专精特新小巨人市值含量达57%、近三年平均研发比例约5%。展望未来，建议北交所优化上市标准、研究前 沿科技领域中小企业准入机制，完善再融资、并购重组等制度工具。2）强化多层次资本市场互联互通 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 黄金 ETF 涨幅领先，科创板块逆市 净申购 ——指数化投资周报 20251117 ⚫ 产品成立募集情况： 产品成立方面，最近一周作为跨境配置主要方向的天弘国证港股通科技 ETF、国联安恒生 港股通科技主题 ETF 等 5 只产品上市；长盛中证 A500 指数增强 A 等 8 只产品成立。中 加北证 50 成份指数增强 A、华泰柏瑞上证科创板综合指数增强 A 等指数增强产品集中成 立。 募集方面，未来一周 2 只指数产品结束募集，无指数产品将开始募集。结束募集的指数产 品创金合信中证 A500 指数增强 A 和华泰保兴中证全指指数增强 A 等 2 只产品。 申报方面，最近一周共计 28 只指数产品进行申报。近期新申报基金维系行业主题多元特 点，聚焦不同内容赛道主题基金包括易方达中证细分化工产业主题 ETF、华宝国证商用卫 星通信产业 ETF、广发国证工业软件主题 ETF 等 18 只产品；联接基金包括南方中证港股 通互联网 ETF 联接、兴业中证全指自由现金流 ETF 联接基金等 6 只产品。 证 券 研 证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@sws ...

证券研究报告 较红利股息差已转正，扩募与资产扩容并进 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 任奕璇 A0230525050002 2025.11.17 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ REITs量价企稳收涨0.4%，消费个券驱动领涨，交通反弹而产业园承压。周期资源品板块走强，长债收益率低位企 稳，11月上半月中证REITs先抑后扬，累计收涨0.4%。板块分化加剧，长假预期与CPI转正带动消费板块领涨 (+1.62%)，个券金茂商业涨幅领衔；交通超跌反弹(+1.42%)，超八成个券上涨；产业园(-1.96%)与物流(-0.40%) 表现偏弱，前者跌幅较10月扩大，后者跌幅收窄。流动性方面，REITs市场量价趋稳，上半月日均换手率0.49%， 较10月同期提升0.2pcts；其中，产业园资金大举流出，消费虽涨但换手率变化不大，反映资金或在内部择券交易。 ◼ REITs较红利股之息差由负转正，较股债已具配置优势。派息率方面，产权类REITs最新派息率为4.40%，与10Y国 债收益率息差为2.58% ...

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Overall Industry Analysis - The report indicates a systemic recovery opportunity for the food and beverage industry in 2026 after a five-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2025, with key external indicators being the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a focus on cyclical attributes in the liquor and catering supply chain [4][19]. - The liquor sector is expected to see a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026, following a significant decline in sales and prices in Q3 2025, with a projected stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [4][7][19]. - The report emphasizes that if the fundamentals recover as anticipated, a dual boost in valuation and performance is expected by the end of 2026 and into 2027, marking a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][7][19]. Group 2: Liquor Investment Strategy - The liquor sector has experienced a significant decline in sales, with Q3 2025 showing a 50% year-on-year drop compared to Q3 2023, and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall as the market seeks a balance between volume and price [4][7][8]. - Key recommended companies in the liquor sector include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, with a focus on strategic positioning for quality firms as the market stabilizes [4][7][8]. - Historical performance analysis from 2012 to 2015 suggests that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points, indicating a potential recovery in Q3 2026 [4][7][23]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Investment Strategy - The report identifies systemic opportunities in the consumer goods sector, with CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [4][19]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili Group, Qingdao Beer, Anjuke Food, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on firms that possess pricing power and are positioned for systematic recovery if CPI continues to improve [4][19]. - The report highlights that if CPI improves consistently, leading companies in various sub-sectors will also experience systematic recovery [4][19].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 股债混合固定久期产品发行 ——海外创新产品周报 20251117 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：股债混合固定久期产品发行。上周美国共 16 只新发产品，单股票产 品、数字货币产品数量较多。Discipline Funds 上周发行 Defined Duration 系列 ETF， 通过股债混合产品形式来锚定目标久期，除了新发的 5 年、20 年久期产品，另有 10 年 久期产品在此前通过其他 ETF 更名，该系列产品主要通过 CAPE 等估值指标来评估股票 的久期，并与匹配的债券组合结合以获得给定时间区间内更稳健的收益，产品主要通过投 资其他 E ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 17 日 猪价震荡走弱亏损幅度扩大，上市宠企 "双十一"销售表现亮眼 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.11.9-2025.11.16） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 2.7%，沪深 300 下跌 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：绿康生化（27.6%）、 ST 佳沃（23.2%）、平潭发展（22.2%）、中粮糖业（18.0%）、粤海饲料（15.6%），跌幅前五 名：邦基科技（-22.2%）、安德利（-13.1%）、乖宝宠物（-5.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that due to safety and environmental inspections, coal production is expected to tighten, leading to an anticipated increase in coal prices during the heating season [3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, noting price increases and supply constraints in key production areas [3][10][11]. - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rebound during the peak season, recommending specific companies for investment based on their price elasticity and valuation [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of central ecological and environmental inspections across several provinces and major state-owned enterprises, which may impact coal production [9]. - It mentions the release of guidelines by the National Energy Administration aimed at integrating coal with new energy sources, emphasizing low-carbon transitions [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others have seen declines [10]. - Coking coal prices have generally increased, with specific price points provided for various regions [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes an increase in daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports, indicating a tightening supply situation [22]. - It highlights a decrease in power plant inventories and an increase in daily consumption rates, suggesting a growing demand for coal [5][22]. International Oil Prices - The report indicates a rise in Brent crude oil prices, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [17]. Shipping Costs - Domestic and international shipping costs have increased, which could affect overall coal pricing and supply chain logistics [28]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market capitalization, earnings per share, and price-to-earnings ratios [33].

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 17 日 关注军贸及消耗类武器，军工进入 配置周期 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 47 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 跌 0.18%，沪深 300 下跌 1.08%，创业板指下跌 3.01%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the public utilities and environmental protection sectors [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity production in October, with total generation reaching 800.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [4][11] - Hydropower and thermal power contributed the most to the increase in electricity generation, while wind power saw a decline of 11.9% compared to the previous year [4][10] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends globally, with stable prices in Asia and fluctuations in Europe and North America [22][40] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Production - In October, thermal power generation was 513.8 billion kWh, up 7.3% year-on-year, while hydropower generation reached 135.1 billion kWh, up 28.2% [4][11] - The total increase in electricity generation for October was approximately 58.6 billion kWh, with thermal power contributing 35 billion kWh and hydropower contributing 29.7 billion kWh [10][11] - The Three Gorges Reservoir achieved its water storage target of 175 meters, supporting future hydropower generation [10] 2. Natural Gas Market - As of November 14, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $3.49/mmBtu, a weekly decrease of 7.32% [22] - The TTF spot price in Europe was €30.80/MWh, showing a slight weekly change of 0.81% [22] - Northeast Asia's LNG spot price remained stable at $11.10/mmBtu, with domestic supply being sufficient [22][40] 3. Investment Recommendations - For hydropower, the report recommends companies like Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower due to favorable autumn water conditions [20] - In the green energy sector, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are suggested for their stable returns and high utilization hours [20] - For nuclear power, the report highlights China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power as key players due to ongoing approvals for new units [20] - In the thermal power sector, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to decreasing fuel costs [20] - The report also suggests focusing on integrated natural gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy for their potential recovery in profitability [42][43]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].