Market Performance - A-shares showed a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.15% to 3373.75 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.41% at 23578.8 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.29%[1] - The US Dow Jones fell by 0.37%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.33% and 0.53%, respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth for Q4 was revised up to an annualized rate of 2.4%, compared to a previous estimate of 2.3%[8] - The core PCE price index for Q4 was adjusted down to 2.6%[8] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, was revised down to a growth rate of 4%[8] International Relations - The US is seeking to control major infrastructure and natural resource investments in Ukraine, aiming to exclude European influence[8] - High-level trade officials from South Korea, Japan, and China are set to meet to discuss economic cooperation in response to US trade pressures[8]

2025年3月27日星期四 ➢ 美国宣布汽车进口税；特朗普暗示对 华关税可有条件降低。A股维持低迷。 上证指数跌0.04%报3368.7点，深证成 指跌0.05%，创业板指跌0.26%。化纤涨 幅居前，汽车产链活跃。港股窄幅震 荡，偏强运行。恒生指数收盘涨0.6%报 23483.32点，恒生科技指数涨1.01%， 恒生中国企业指数涨0.44%。贵金属涨 幅居前，恒大汽车一度涨超200%。大 市成交1997.653亿港元。外盘方面，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。美国三大 股指全线收跌，道指跌0.31%，标普500 指数跌1.12%报5712.2点，纳指跌2.04%。 特朗普宣布对所有非美产汽车征收25% 关税，他愿考虑降低对华关税以换取 中国同意TikTok交易。 资料来源：彭博 | 23483.32 | 0.60 | 17.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8654.26 | 0.44 | 18.72 | | 5573.04 | 1.01 | 24.73 | | 131.69 | -0.02 | -7.91 | | 3368.70 | -0.04 | 0.51 | | 10643.82 | ...

2025年3月25日星期二 ➢ 特朗普暗示减免对等关税；MLF操作调 整。A股顽强，尾盘翻红。上证指数收 盘涨0.15%报3370.03点，深证成指涨 0.07%，创业板指涨0.01%。旅游酒店热 度高，大金融走强。港股震荡，A股收 盘后港股急涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.91%报 23905.56点，恒生科技指数涨1.72%，恒 生中国企业指数涨1.24%。半导体反弹， 航海系走强，有色行业活跃。大市成交 2331.08亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大 股指收盘小幅下跌。美国三大股指全线 收涨，道指涨1.42%，标普500指数涨 1.76%报5767.57点，纳指涨2.27%。特朗 普计划几天内公布汽车关税，并暗示下 周不少国家将获得对等关税减免。中国 央行称本月起MLF采用多重价位中标方 式，周二将开展4500亿元操作。 资料来源：彭博 | 23905.56 | 0.91 | 19.17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8850.69 | 1.24 | 21.41 | | 5736.83 | 1.72 | 28.40 | | 129.64 | -0.70 | -9.34 | | 3370.03 | 0. ...

2025年3月20日星期四 ➢ 鲍威尔安抚关税担忧；腾讯营收大增。 A股反弹乏力，午后走低，上证指数 收盘跌0.1%报3426.43点，深证成指跌 0.32%，创业板指跌0.28%。电力行业 爆发，贵金属强势，银行业全行业上 涨。港股偏强震荡。恒生指数收盘涨 0.12%报24771.14点，恒生科技指数跌 1.05%，恒生中国企业指数跌0.15%。 医疗保健行业涨幅居前，保险股继续 向好。大市成交2718.59亿港元。外盘 方面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.92%， 标普500指数涨1.08%报5675.29点，纳 指涨1.41%。鲍威尔预测关税对通胀影 响不会持久，金融市场如释重负。腾 讯营收创一年来最快增长，计划加快 AI投资。 资料来源：彭博 | 24771.14 | 0.12 | 23.49 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9163.67 | -0.15 | 25.70 | | 6041.19 | -1.05 | 35.21 | | 128.68 | 0.13 | -10.01 | | 3426.43 | -0.10 | 2.23 | | 10979.0 ...

2025年3月19日星期三 ➢ 普京拒绝全面停火；小米营收增长强 劲。A股整固，上证指数横盘震荡收 涨0.11%报3429.76点，深证成指弱势 震荡收涨0.52%，创业板指涨0.61%。 比亚迪带动高压快充概念股掀涨停潮， 创新药、黄金行业走强。港股高开日 内维持强势。恒生指数收盘涨2.46%报 24740.57点，恒生科技指数涨3.96%， 恒生中国企业指数涨2.79%。贵金属维 持强势，零售、汽车、医疗保健、保 险等多行业领涨。大市成交2859.352 亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收 盘全线上涨。美国三大股指全线收跌， 道指跌0.62%，标普500指数跌1.07%报 5614.66点，纳指跌1.71%。普京回绝 全面停火建议，仅同意限制对乌克兰 能源设施的攻击。小米营收强劲增长， 关注腾讯周三公布业绩。 | 24740.57 | 2.46 | 23.33 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9177.80 | 2.79 | 25.90 | | 6105.50 | 3.96 | 36.65 | | 128.51 | -1.63 | -10.13 | | 3429.76 | 0.11 | 2. ...

2025年3月18日星期二 ➢ 经合组织(OECD)下调对大多数成员国 的经济展望，预计今年全球经济增速将 放缓至3.1%，美国明年GDP增速降至 1.6%。美国2月份零售销售表现不及预 期，1月份数据被下修，加剧外界对消 费支出的担忧。 ➢ 据悉美国贸易代表试图为下个月将实施 的全面新关税注入秩序，部分关税有可 能不会在4月初生效，需要等待贸易代 表办公室或商务部进行可能持续数月的 调查。 资料来源：彭博 ➢ 比亚迪发布最新闪充技术，5分钟充电 可续航约400公里，远远超过特斯拉， 几乎与普通汽车加油一样快。 2025年3月18日星期二 | 2561 | 维升药业－Ｂ | 18/03/2025 | 21/03/2025 | HKD | 75.28 | 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2610 | 南山铝业国际 | 20/03/2025 | 25/03/2025 | HKD | 31.50 | 100 | | 6693 | 赤峰黄金 | 2025-03-10 | 13.72 | 9.53x | 28.00 | 13.72 | 14.00 ...

| 66.25 | 0.33 | -5.91 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2920.90 | 0.74 | 9.55 | | 9662.50 | 1.41 | 10.20 | | 2703.00 | 0.33 | 5.94 | | 1011.25 | -0.25 | -1.15 | | 470.25 | -0.38 | 0.91 | | 103.42 | -0.46 | -4.61 | | 7.23 | -0.50 | 1.59 | | 1.09 | 0.93 | 5.03 | | 67.70 | -0.41 | 5.51 | | 23782.14 | | --- | | 23585 | | 24181 | | 23170.84 | | 21254.91 | | 19430.25 | | 63.11 | 183 35 3511-15 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Units 3511-15, 35/F, Cosco Tower, Grand Millennium Plaza, www.yafco.com.hk 183 ...

2025年2月6日星期四 ➢ 美国服务业放缓；美邮政接收中港包裹。 A股蛇年首个交易日承压，上证指数单 边下挫，深证成指弱势震荡。软件开发 股涨幅居前；贵金属强势。港股宽幅震 荡。恒生指数收盘跌0.93%报20597.09点， 恒生科技指数跌0.95%，恒生国企指数跌 1.01%。科技咨讯、油气及贵金属行业涨 幅居前。大市成交1922.11亿港元。外盘 方面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。美 国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.71%，标 普500指数涨0.39%报6061.48点，纳指涨 0.19%。美国服务业增长放缓。美国邮政 服务称将继续接收来自中国内地和香港 的包裹。 资料来源：彭博 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 12/F & 25/F, CMA Building, 64-66 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong | 20597.09 | -0.93 | | 2.68 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7566.27 | -1.01 | | 3.79 | | 4930.20 | - ...

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%[9] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to increase from 4.0% to 4.4%[9] - PCE inflation for 2024 is adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%[9] Market Trends - In December, US retail sales increased by 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%[12] - The December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 165,000[17] - The December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[18] Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes in Q4 2024 shows equities down by 10.49% and commodities down by 15.04%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.4% in 2024[10] Currency Analysis - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was at 98.36, reflecting a 3.04% change[22] - The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate, impacting trade dynamics[32] Monetary Policy - The Federal funds rate is expected to be at 4.375% in 2024, with four rate cuts anticipated[9] - By the end of 2025, the rate is projected to drop below 3.5%[9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that Trump won the 2024 presidential election, with the Republican Party controlling both the Senate and the House, which is expected to facilitate the implementation of his policy agenda [4][5] - Key policies proposed by Trump include significant tax cuts, increased trade tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and a push for domestic fossil fuel production [5][6] - The anticipated impact of these policies on the U.S. economy includes an increase in U.S. debt issuance, potential inflationary pressures, and significant labor market disruptions due to immigration policies [6] Group 2 - The analysis of Trump's first term suggests that the performance of major U.S. assets during the "majority government period" (2016-2018) is crucial for predicting future asset trends [10] - During the majority government period, the U.S. economy experienced a peak in growth, with GDP growth reaching 2.51%, which was not significantly higher than the 2.44% average during Obama's second term [12] - The report highlights that the stock market saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 19.42% in 2017, driven by strong performances in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors [18] Group 3 - In the minority government period (2019), economic activity slowed, and the stock market rebounded with the S&P 500 index increasing by 28.88%, led by the technology sector [26] - The report notes that the energy sector faced significant declines, while the healthcare sector showed resilience during this period [26] - The analysis of the stock market performance indicates a "stronger gets stronger" trend, particularly in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors [26] Group 4 - The report discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, noting that the stock market remained bullish with a 16.26% increase in the S&P 500 index in 2020, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic [34] - The technology sector continued to outperform, while the energy sector faced significant declines [34] - The report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policies during the pandemic significantly influenced market dynamics, leading to increased liquidity and stock price appreciation [34] Group 5 - The report concludes that Trump's policies are likely to continue influencing the economy and capital markets, with potential implications for various sectors, including consumer discretionary, financials, and healthcare [40][43] - The analysis suggests that the consumer discretionary sector may continue its strong performance, while financial institutions could benefit from increased lending in a lower interest rate environment [43] - The report recommends specific stocks within the consumer discretionary and financial sectors, highlighting companies like Amazon and Bank of America as potential investment opportunities [44]