2025年4月17日星期四 ➢ 鲍威尔泼降息冷水；中国不排除与美谈 判。A股再度尾盘翻红。上证指数涨 0.26%报3276点，深证成指跌0.85%，创 业板指跌1.21%。贵金属和酒店板块涨 幅居前。港股低开下跌，尾盘小幅修复 跌幅。恒生指数收跌1.91%报21056.98点， 恒生科技指数跌3.72%，恒生中国企业 指数跌2.55%。贵金属和房地产服务涨 幅居前。大市成交2200亿港元。外盘方 面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。美国 三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.73%，标 普500指数跌2.24%报5275.7点，纳指跌 3.07%。据悉中国对与美国谈判持开放 态度，而特朗普政府准备利用关税谈判 施压其他国家限制对华贸易。美国3月 零售大增，鲍威尔强调关税的通胀影响， 淡化降息预期。 资料来源：彭博 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 | 21056.98 | -1.91 | 4.97 | | --- | --- | --- | | 7779.01 | -2.55 | 6.71 | | 4796.28 | -3.72 | 7.34 | | 138.1 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.26% to 3276 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.85% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.21%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.91% at 21056.98 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 3.72% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 2.55%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 220 billion HKD[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased significantly in March, with a month-on-month growth of 1.4%[1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[19] - China's GDP growth for Q1 was reported at 5.4% year-on-year[19] Federal Reserve and Trade Relations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed interest rate cut expectations, emphasizing the need to prevent tariffs from causing persistent inflation[1] - China expressed an open attitude towards trade negotiations with the U.S., contingent on the U.S. showing more respect and appointing a liaison for talks[1][14] Sector Performance - Precious metals and hotel sectors showed strong performance, while the technology sector faced declines in both Hong Kong and the U.S. markets[1] - Shenzhen Holdings reported a 83.5% year-on-year increase in contract sales for Q1, amounting to approximately 3.133 billion RMB[12]

2025年4月11日星期五 ➢ 中美贸易战升级；美国CPI意外降温。 A股高开，横盘震荡。上证指数收涨 1.16%报3223.64点，深证成指涨2.25%， 创业板指涨2.27%。科技行业大幅反弹， 大消费回暖。港股高开，收盘小幅走 低。恒生指数收涨2.06%报20681.78点， 恒生科技指数涨2.66%，恒生国企指数 涨1.76%。贵金属及电讯持续反弹，幅 度居前。大市成交3955.345亿港元。 外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上 涨。美国三大股指大幅收跌，道指跌 2.5%，标普500指数跌3.46%报5268.05 点，纳指跌4.31%。川普对华贸易战再 升级，加征的中国关税总税率激增到 至少145%，并进一步调高小额包裹关 税。美国3月CPI近五年来首次环比下 降，联储会官员强调应对关税冲击通 膨的必要性。 | 20681.78 | 2.06 | 3.10 | | --- | --- | --- | | 7668.38 | 1.76 | 5.19 | | 4813.74 | 2.66 | 7.74 | | 139.39 | -0.57 | -2.52 | | 3223.64 | 1.16 | -3.8 ...

资料来源：彭博 ➢ 美国对华104%关税即将生效；离岸人民币创 纪录新低。A股窄幅震荡，尾盘拉升，上证 指数收涨1.58%报3145.55点，深证成指涨 0.64%，创业板指涨1.83%。中字头以及内需 行业反弹幅度居前，如农牧饲渔、食品饮料、 商业百货等；电机、消费电子、汽车、纺织 服装等仍受关税冲击，持续下跌。港股多空 对垒，宽幅震荡。恒生指数收涨1.51%报 20127.68点，恒生科技指数涨3.79%，恒生 国企指数涨2.31%。半导体、贵金属及钟表 珠宝反弹幅度居前。市场成交额4331.567亿 港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上 涨。美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.84%， 标普500指数跌1.57%报4982.77点，纳指跌 2.15%。美国104%的对华关税将在数小时后 生效，离岸人民币创美国大选以来最大跌幅 并触及纪录新低，李强称中方有充足政策工 具对冲外部不利影响。 2025年4月9日星期三 | 59.58 | -1.85 | -19.39 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2990.20 | 0.56 | 11.21 | | 8655.50 | -0.88 | -1.2 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.24% to 3342.01 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.4%[1] - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.52% to 22849.81 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 2.09%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was HKD 2894.93 billion[1] Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump announced a baseline tariff of 10% on most U.S. imports, effective immediately, with higher tariffs on certain countries starting April 9[7] - China retaliated by imposing a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10, matching the U.S. tariff rate[11] - Analysts estimate that the new tariffs could reduce China's exports to the U.S. by approximately 80%[11] TikTok Negotiations - TikTok received a 75-day extension for negotiations to finalize a deal to sell its U.S. operations, which was previously close to completion[7] - The deal fell through due to heightened tensions from the new tariffs imposed by the U.S.[11] Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the economic impact of the new tariffs could exceed expectations, potentially leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth[11] - Powell indicated that the Fed would not rush to adjust interest rates due to the uncertainty surrounding government policies[11]

2025年4月3日星期四 ➢ 对等关税引爆全球；中国据悉限制企业 新增对美直接投资。上证指数涨0.05%报 3350.13点，深证成指涨0.09%，创业板 指涨0.13%。人形机器人概念走强，带动 电机行业涨幅居前。港股早盘宽幅震荡， 午后偏弱运行 。恒生指数跌 0.02%报 23202.53点，恒生科技指数涨0.35%，恒 生中国企业指数跌0.07%。半导体行业拉 涨，电讯、保险、科技涨幅居前。大市 成交2165.98亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三 大股指收盘全线下跌。美国三大股指全 线收涨，道指涨0.56%，标普500指数涨 0.67%报5670.97点，纳指涨0.87%。特朗 普宣布对所有贸易伙伴起步10%的对等 关税，中国被加征34%。欧盟、加拿大 等国料祭出反制措施，北京尚未做出回 应，据悉中国近期已限制企业新增对美 国直接投资。 | 71.71 | 0.72 | -1.19 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3166.20 | 0.64 | 17.85 | | 9700.50 | 0.08 | 10.64 | | 2490.50 | -0.66 | -2.39 | | 1029.50 | ...

Market Performance - A-shares declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% at 3335.75 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.97%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.31% at 23119.58 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.03%[1] - European stock indices closed lower, while the Dow Jones increased by 1% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.55% to 5611.85 points[1] Economic Indicators - China's liquidity gap in April remains close to 3 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing liquidity issues[1][15] - The sales amount of China's top 100 real estate companies in March decreased by 11% year-on-year, reflecting weak recovery in the real estate sector[15] Policy and Market Expectations - President Trump is expected to announce details on reciprocal tariffs, which may impact inflation and market conditions[1][15] - The New York Fed President expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation, indicating potential economic implications[15] Corporate Actions - JD Industrial has re-applied for a Hong Kong listing, aiming to raise approximately $1 billion (around 7.8 billion HKD) for expansion and strategic investments[13] - Jiangsu Hongxin's stock opened 46% higher but later fell back to the IPO price of 2.5 HKD, indicating volatility in market reception[13]

2025年3月31日星期一 ➢ 美经济滞胀风险；中资大行定增A股。A 股下跌。上证指数跌0.67%报3351.31点， 深证成指跌0.57%，创业板指跌0.79%。 贵金属冲高，多元金融走强；化工产链 大面积回调。港股大挫，尾盘收复部分 失地。香港恒生指数收盘跌 0.65%报 23426.6点，恒生科技指数跌1.48%，恒 生中国企业指数跌0.82%。贵金属板块冲 高，医药、电讯走强。大市成交2296.22 亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收盘 全线下跌。美国三大股指全线收跌，道 指 跌 1.69% ， 标 普 500 指数跌 1.97% 报 5580.94点，纳指跌2.7%。美国经济面临 滞胀风险，美联储看重的通胀指标创下 一年来最大升幅，而消费支出再次弱于 预期。中国四家国有银行计划定向增发 A股，合计募集5200亿元以补充资本。 资料来源：彭博 | 23426.60 | -0.65 | 16.78 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8606.51 | -0.82 | 18.06 | | 5506.47 | -1.48 | 23.24 | | 132.71 | 0.36 | -7.20 | | ...

Market Performance - A-shares showed a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.15% to 3373.75 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.41% at 23578.8 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.29%[1] - The US Dow Jones fell by 0.37%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.33% and 0.53%, respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth for Q4 was revised up to an annualized rate of 2.4%, compared to a previous estimate of 2.3%[8] - The core PCE price index for Q4 was adjusted down to 2.6%[8] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, was revised down to a growth rate of 4%[8] International Relations - The US is seeking to control major infrastructure and natural resource investments in Ukraine, aiming to exclude European influence[8] - High-level trade officials from South Korea, Japan, and China are set to meet to discuss economic cooperation in response to US trade pressures[8]

Market Overview - The US announced a 25% tariff on all non-American manufactured cars, effective April 2, which is expected to generate an additional $100 billion in annual revenue for the US government[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to 3368.7 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.26%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.6% at 23483.32 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.01% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.44%[1] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.12% to 5712.2 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.31%[1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 2.04%[1] - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with some indices closing higher and others lower[1] Trade Relations - Trump indicated a willingness to consider lowering tariffs on China in exchange for support in the sale of TikTok's US operations to an American company[11] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to encourage other countries to reduce trade barriers and address the US trade deficit[11] Economic Stimulus - Chinese central bank advisor Huang Yiping stated that if economic growth loses momentum, the government is prepared to deploy more stimulus measures[11] - The Chinese economy has shown a good start this year, with a focus on structural reforms and boosting consumer and business confidence[11] Carbon Market Expansion - China announced an expansion of its national carbon emissions trading market to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, potentially adding 1500 key emission units and covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions[11]