Group 1: Trading Holiday Arrangements - CME's agricultural products, live hogs, live cattle, cocoa, coffee, 11 - number sugar, ICUS's cotton and orange juice are on holiday on June 19; CME's interest rates, bonds, indices close early at 01:00 on the 20th, metals and energy close early at 02:30 on the 20th, and low - sulfur diesel, Brent crude, WTI close early at 01:30 on the 20th; ICEU's sugar closes early at 00:00 on the 20th [2] - BMD's all products are on holiday on June 27; DCE, INE, ZCE's all products are on holiday on June 19 [2] Group 2: Key News - Oil prices rise slightly after fluctuations due to speculation of US joining Middle - East conflict; London copper falls slightly as traders weigh Middle - East situation and tight supply; spot gold drops [3] - The US dollar rises slightly, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fall as US officials prepare for possible strike on Iran; the RMB is stable [4] Group 3: Economic Data - In the US, the Michigan consumer confidence index in June is 60.50 (expected 53.60); the New York manufacturing survey index in June is - 16.00 (expected - 7.00); retail sales in May decline by 0.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.7%); etc [5] - In China, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in May is 7.9% (expected 8.1%); the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in May is 6.4% (expected 4.9%); etc [5] Group 4: Energy Futures Market Overview - New York crude (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 75.14, a daily increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month increase of 20.86%, and a 3 - month increase of 13.34% [6] - Brent crude (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 76.7, a daily increase of 0.33%, a 1 - month increase of 18.02%, and a 3 - month increase of 10.15% [6] - Natural gas (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 3.989, a daily increase of 3.58%, a 1 - month increase of 15.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 14.74% [6] Important Data - EIA crude inventory changes by - 1147.3 barrels (previous - 364.4); EIA natural gas inventory changes by 95 billion cubic feet per day (previous 109) [9] - The total number of drilling rigs is 555 (previous 559); the number of oil drilling rigs is 439 (previous 442) [9] Group 5: Metal Futures Market Overview - Gold (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 3408.1, a daily increase of 0.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.97%, and a 3 - month increase of 9.58% [7] - Silver (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 36.913, a daily decrease of 0.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.22%, and a 3 - month increase of 6.64% [7] Important Data - COMEX gold inventory is 3778.42 million ounces (change - 0.03); COMEX silver inventory is 49573.51 million ounces (change - 84.8) [10] - SPDR gold trust total is 947.37 tons (change 1.43); ISHARE silver trust total is 47182.39 million ounces (change - 127.25) [10] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Futures Market Overview - The US dollar index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 98.468, a daily increase of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.08% [8] - The euro (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 1.1544, a daily decrease of 0.03%, a 1 - month increase of 1.84%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.66% [8] Important Data - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.3909% (change 0.05%); the 10 - year German Treasury yield is 2.497% (change 1.19%) [11] Group 7: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The small - cap Dow Jones index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 42512, a daily decrease of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.82%, and a 3 - month decrease of 0.45% [12] - The small - cap S&P 500 index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 6034.25, a daily decrease of 0.07%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.20% [12] Important Data - The US federal funds target rate is 4.5% (change 0.00%); LIBOR US dollar overnight is 5.06157 (change 0.20%) [15] Group 8: Soft Commodity and Agricultural Product Futures Market Overview - No. 2 cotton (DEC 25) has a settlement price of 66.67, a daily decrease of 1.98%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.48%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.15% [13] - No. 11 sugar (OCT 25) has a settlement price of 16.31, a daily decrease of 1.21%, a 1 - month decrease of 7.80%, and a 3 - month decrease of 17.21% [13] Important Data - ICE non - commercial net position has different values and changes in different cases; ICE commercial net position also has corresponding values and changes [16]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.04% at 3388.81 points, the Shenzhen Component rising 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.23%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.12% to close at 23710.69 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.46% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.16%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 1819.29 million HKD[1] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating two potential rate cuts by the end of the year[8] - The Fed's dot plot suggests a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, alongside an increase in unemployment and inflation expectations[8] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for June showed a preliminary value of 60.50, compared to previous values of 52.20 and 53.60[17] Geopolitical Developments - Tensions escalated as Iran refused to surrender, with President Trump convening a war room meeting, although no final decision on military action was made[8] - Reports indicated that the U.S. might attack Iran within 24 hours if negotiations fail[12] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector continued to rise, while precious metals showed significant gains[1] - The banking sector led the gains in the A-share market, reflecting investor confidence amid economic uncertainties[1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to significant concerns over regional stability and potential disruptions in oil supply, causing oil prices to surge. Bloomberg's industry research predicts WTI crude oil could rise to $125 per barrel due to this conflict [8][11]. Market Performance - A-shares opened lower with major indices declining: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.75% to 3377 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.13%. The mining and precious metals sectors showed the most gains [1][5]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 0.59% at 23892.56 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.72% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.85%. The oil, gas, precious metals, and coal sectors experienced significant increases, while the technology sector remained weak [1][5]. Economic Indicators - In China, government bond issuance has driven credit growth in May, although household loan demand remains weak. The People's Bank of China reported a net financing of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan ($204 billion) from government bonds, marking a nearly 20% increase year-on-year [11]. - The report anticipates that industrial production and fixed asset investment will remain stable, while retail growth may drop below 5% due to worsening real estate investment [8][11]. Company-Specific Developments - Tesla supplier Sanhua Intelligent Control plans to raise approximately HKD 7.7 billion through an IPO, with 30% of the proceeds allocated for global R&D and innovation, and another 30% for expanding production capacity in China [10]. - Baize Medical is also conducting an IPO, expecting to raise around HKD 620 million, with a significant portion of the funds aimed at enhancing its oncology services [10]. - The report notes that Wuxi Biologics Holdings Ltd is planning to sell 82.9 million shares at a discount, raising approximately HKD 2.2 billion [13]. Geopolitical Impacts - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has raised fears of a broader regional conflict, with potential implications for global energy prices and market stability. The situation has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [11]. - The report indicates that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route, oil prices could spike significantly, further impacting inflation and economic policies in the U.S. [11]. Regulatory Changes - Taiwan has implemented technology export controls on Huawei and SMIC, which may hinder their access to critical semiconductor manufacturing technologies [11]. Summary of Key Data - The report includes various financial metrics and forecasts, such as the anticipated rise in oil prices and the performance of specific sectors within the stock market, reflecting the broader economic implications of geopolitical tensions [1][11].

Economic Indicators - The US core inflation rate for May has been below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that businesses are largely absorbing higher tariff costs without passing them on to consumers[8] - The US May tariff revenue reached a record high of $23 billion, a year-on-year increase of $17 billion, representing a 270% growth[13] - The US budget deficit for May was $316 billion, a 17% decrease compared to the previous year[13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.21%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.84% at 24366.94 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.09% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.12%[1] Trade Relations - President Trump announced that China will "take the lead" in supplying rare earths and magnets as part of a framework agreement reached during US-China negotiations[8] - The framework agreement includes maintaining current tariff levels, which are lower than before Trump's presidency, and allowing Chinese students to enroll in US universities[8] Monetary Policy - Following the inflation data, the market is pricing in an over 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[8] - Trump has called for a 100 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, arguing it would significantly reduce interest payments on maturing debt[8]

新永安期货市场快讯 XIN YONGAN Futures Express 2025年6月10日星期二 www.yafco.com.hk 六月假期交易休市时间安排： | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.19 | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.2 | 6.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CME | 农产品 | 休市 | BMD | 所有产品 指数产品 | 休市 正常 | 休市 正常 | | | 生猪、活牛 | 休市 | | | | | | | 利率及债券 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | | | | | | 外汇 | 正常 | HKEX | 金属产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 指数 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | MSCI指数 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 金属 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 货币产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | | | | 橡胶TSR20 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 能源 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 日经指数 | 正常 | 正常 正常 | | | 可可、咖啡、11号糖 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% to 3399.77 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.65% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.07%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index jumped 1.63% to 24181.43 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.78% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising 1.74%[1] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong reached 245.83 billion HKD[1] US-China Negotiations - US-China trade talks in London are ongoing, with the US indicating a willingness to relax some export controls in exchange for China easing rare earth supply restrictions[7] - The US is reportedly preparing to lift recent restrictions on chip design software, aircraft engine parts, chemicals, and nuclear materials[7] Economic Indicators - In May, Taiwan's exports surged by 39% year-on-year, reaching a record high of 51.74 billion USD, driven by demand for emerging technologies[14] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3285.26 billion in May, showing a slight increase from the previous month[19] Corporate Actions - Tencent Holdings announced a share buyback of 5 billion HKD for 968,000 shares, representing approximately 0.17% of its equity[16] - Midea Group recalled 1.7 million air conditioning units in North America, with minimal impact on profits due to low complaint rates[16]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% at 3385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.19% and 0.45% respectively[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.48% to 23792.54 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both down 0.63%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was HKD 235.62 billion[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%[20] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield increasing by 11.64 basis points to 4.0365% following the positive employment data[14] Trade Relations - U.S. and China officials are set to hold a new round of trade talks focusing on rare earth issues, following a recent phone call between the leaders of both countries[14] - President Trump has called for a 1% interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, citing that Europe has already cut rates multiple times[14] Market Sentiment - The strong U.S. employment data has led traders to reduce their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September now estimated at around 70%[14] - The market is reacting cautiously to the ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties, with employers reportedly "stockpiling labor" amid concerns over tariffs and economic slowdown[14]

Economic Data and Market Trends - US economic activity showed signs of slowing down, with the ISM services index falling to 49.9, indicating contraction for the first time in a year[8] - The Dow Jones decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.01% to 5970.81 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.32%[1] - A-shares strengthened post-holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.42% to 3376.2 points[1] Sector Performance - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% to 23654.03 points, led by gains in the consumer sector and active trading in precious metals[1] - Jewelry stocks maintained strong performance, while brokerage stocks were active, and beer-related stocks received a boost[1] US-China Relations and Technology - US Commerce Secretary stated that China currently lacks the capacity for large-scale production of advanced chips, estimating only about 200,000 units can be produced, which is minimal compared to demand[8] - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a broad economic impact from tariff policies and rising uncertainty, with labor demand weakening across all regions[12] Investment and Corporate Actions - Shiu Fook Jewelry plans to raise funds through an IPO to expand its sales network, with a valuation potentially exceeding 10 billion RMB[10] - Nidec Corporation announced a share buyback plan of up to 8 billion RMB, having repurchased approximately 664,000 A-shares for about 1.55 billion RMB[13]

Core Insights - The report highlights the tightening of US restrictions on semiconductor sales to China, specifically targeting chip design software, which may impact major EDA software providers like Synopsys and Cadence [8][12] - Nvidia reported strong quarterly earnings and a robust revenue outlook, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure, despite challenges in the Chinese market [8][12] - The report notes a decline in major A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the Hang Seng Index down 0.53% [1][5] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is facing increased scrutiny and restrictions from the US government, which is likely to affect the supply chain and market dynamics [8][12] - Nvidia's CEO emphasized the unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure globally, indicating a potential shift in economic sectors due to advancements in AI technology [12] - The report mentions that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, with concerns about persistent inflation affecting economic growth forecasts [12] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's second-quarter revenue is projected to reach approximately $45 billion, with an expected loss of about $8 billion in revenue due to export restrictions to China [12] - SHEIN is shifting its IPO plans from London to Hong Kong, aiming to enhance its global corporate image and attract Western investors [10] - Shenzhen-based Fast Innovation Technology has submitted an IPO application in Hong Kong, reporting a 13% decline in profits for 2024 compared to 2023 [10]

2025年5月28日星期三 ➢ 欧盟拟加快与美谈判；美消费信心 大增。A股主要股指大面积走低，北 证50微微收涨。上证指数跌0.18%报 3340.69点，深证成指跌0.61%，创业 板指跌0.68%。消费股拉升，农药、 化肥等行业涨幅亦居前，机器人、 算力产业链领跌。港股转涨，午后 强势。恒生指数涨0.43%报23381.99 点，恒生科技指数涨0.48%，恒生中 国企业指数涨0.38%。医疗保健个股 活跃。大市成交2032.683亿港元。外 盘方面，周一欧洲主要股指收盘多 数走高。美国三大股指全线收涨， 道指涨1.78%，标普500指数涨2.05% 报5921.54点，纳指涨2.47%。美国5 月消费者信心创四年来最大增幅。 欧盟拟加快与美方贸易谈判。 頁1 ➢ 欧盟寻求加快与美国的贸易谈判，据 悉重点放在关键行业以及关税和非关 税壁垒上。特朗普对欧盟的主动态度 表示赞赏。 ➢ 美国5月份消费者信心指数意外创四 年来最大增幅，中美贸易休战令受访 者对经济和就业的展望改善。 资料来源：彭博 ➢ 中国加大海外魅力攻势，总理李强呼 吁东南亚和海湾国家深化合作，共同 发展大市场。他还强调将加大政策支 持力度以扩大 ...