公司点评报告 · 有色金属行业 阎予露 ☎: 010-80927659 回购股份彰显信心 盈利能力有望持续改善。 --2025 年一季报点评 华立 2025 年 04 月 28 日 ☎：021-20252629 金力永磁(股票代码:300748.SZ) 网: huali@chinastock.com.cn 推荐 维持评级 分析师登记编码：S0130516080004 分析师 网: yanyulu@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040004 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-25 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 300748 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 20.45 | | 上证指数 | 3,295.06 | | 总股本(万股) | 137213 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 113434 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 232 | 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-28 金力永磁 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河有色】公司点评_金力永磁：订单饱满产销创 新高,产能扩张如期推进 20250331 www.ch ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues increasing from 891.76 million in 2024 to 1642.01 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.65% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 208.58 million in 2024 to 377.76 million in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory with a CAGR of about 28.05% [5][7] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 39.03% in 2024 to 44.98% in 2027, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [5][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 891.76 million - 2025: 1118.01 million (growth rate: 25.37%) - 2026: 1361.01 million (growth rate: 21.74%) - 2027: 1642.01 million (growth rate: 20.65%) [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 208.58 million - 2025: 241.55 million (growth rate: 15.81%) - 2026: 295.02 million (growth rate: 22.13%) - 2027: 377.76 million (growth rate: 28.05%) [5][7] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - PE ratio is projected to decrease from 45.73 in 2024 to 25.25 in 2027, indicating improved valuation metrics [5][7] - PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.92 in 2024 to 3.91 in 2027, reflecting a more attractive investment proposition [5][7] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is forecasted to decrease from 263.31 million in 2024 to 226.69 million in 2025, before increasing to 424.05 million by 2027 [6][7]

| 19.77 | 22.00 | 22.80 | 24.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -17.24 | 11.27 | 3.64 | 5.26 | | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.89 | 3.03 | | -9.51 | 21.58 | 3.40 | 4.76 | | 40.20 | 36.32 | 36.84 | 36.67 | | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.65 | | 19.06 | 15.68 | 15.16 | 14.47 | | 市场数据 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 000779.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 9.44 | | 上证指数 | 3,295.06 | | 总股本(万股) | 46,482.95 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 46.478.89 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 43.88 | | | | 公司点评报告 ·建筑行业 E券 CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(亿元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | ...

Group 1 - The first quarter of 2025 saw a turnaround in profits for industrial enterprises in China, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, totaling 1509.36 billion yuan, supported by strong policy effects and a robust economic foundation [17][21] - The manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with profits turning positive, driven by a strong industrial value-added growth of 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter [17][20] - The high-tech manufacturing sector led profit improvements, with a notable 14.3% growth in March, indicating a strong contribution to high-quality industrial development [20][21] Group 2 - The April Politburo meeting emphasized the need for a stable and active capital market, highlighting the importance of high-quality development to counter external uncertainties [23][25] - The meeting proposed to enhance consumer spending and support for the service sector, indicating a strategic shift towards boosting domestic demand as a long-term goal [29][31] - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at increasing high-quality housing supply and optimizing the acquisition of existing properties, which may further stimulate housing demand [35][37] Group 3 - The report indicates a focus on fostering new pillar industries and enhancing the quality of existing industries, particularly through technological innovation and the establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market [31][32] - The government plans to implement structural monetary policy tools to support specific sectors such as technology, consumption, and foreign trade, which is expected to invigorate market activity [28][29] - The emphasis on improving the income of low- and middle-income groups and developing service consumption reflects a commitment to enhancing consumer purchasing power and economic resilience [29][31]

Domestic Policy Insights - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, maintaining stability for six consecutive months[2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion CNY, indicating increased liquidity support[2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures[4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.74% to close at 21,980.74 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.96%[8] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 231.26 billion HKD, up by 18.48 billion HKD from the previous week[13] - The PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 9.86 and 1.04, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7% and 2.2%[19] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector saw the highest increase at 8.37%, followed by information technology at 5.98%[11] - Consumer staples and telecommunications sectors declined by 0.29% and 2.73%, respectively[11] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 5.85%, positioned at the 23rd percentile since 2010[25] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as consumer and technology sectors[41] - Industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, and utilities, are recommended for investment[41] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is considered attractive for medium to long-term investments[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies poses a risk to market stability[43] - Potential disruptions from tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiments are highlighted as significant risks[43]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In the first quarter of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 150.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% compared to the previous value of -0.3%[1] - Total operating revenue reached 32.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, up from 2.8% previously[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded 4.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points, although it decreased by 0.16 percentage points year-on-year[2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The primary driver for the profit turnaround was a robust increase in industrial added value, which grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly increase of 7.7% in March[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in March fell by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price pressures that could affect profit margins[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.9 days, up by 4.0 days year-on-year, which may negatively impact cash flow and economic recovery[2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Future Outlook - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 5.8% to a growth of 3.5%, with March showing a significant increase of 14.3%[2] - Equipment manufacturing and specialized equipment sectors saw profit increases of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively, driven by equipment upgrades[2] - The report highlights concerns about potential export declines due to tariff impacts and the need for sustained domestic economic momentum to support future growth[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a projected growth rate of 2.8% to 3% for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming period [4][6][8] - It emphasizes the importance of OPEC+ decisions on market dynamics, particularly in relation to supply and pricing strategies [4][17] - The analysis includes a detailed examination of various indices, showing significant performance variations across different markets, with DAX and S&P 500 showing notable trends [6][8][9] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of global economic conditions on the industry, particularly focusing on inflation rates and monetary policies [4][6] - It notes that the industry is experiencing shifts due to technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, which are reshaping market strategies [4][17] - The analysis includes a comparison of performance metrics across major indices, highlighting the resilience of certain sectors amidst economic fluctuations [6][8] Company Analysis - Specific companies within the industry are identified as key players, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing market share and operational efficiency [4][17] - The report outlines financial performance metrics for these companies, indicating a trend towards increased profitability and investment in innovation [4][6] - It also addresses potential challenges faced by these companies, including regulatory pressures and competitive dynamics [4][17]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share index increased by 1.15% during the week from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with the CSI 1000, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.38% respectively, outperforming the overall A-share index [2][4]. - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the CSI 1000 outperforming the CSI 300, which only rose by 0.38%. The cyclical and growth styles also performed well, increasing by 2.44% and 1.41% respectively [2][4]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Activity - The A-share market saw a slight increase in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 11,466 billion yuan, up by 379.79 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate was 1.3974%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [11][13]. - A total of 21 new funds were established during the week, with a total issuance of 22.292 billion units. Among these, 15 were equity funds, accounting for 84.45 billion units, which is an increase of 15.66 billion units from the previous week [18][40]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - As of April 25, 2025, the PE (TTM) ratio for the overall A-share index rose by 1.42% to 18.22 times, placing it at the 56.31% percentile since 2010, indicating a historical average level. The PB (LF) ratio increased by 0.55% to 1.53 times, which is at the 10.79% percentile, indicating a historical low [28][36]. - The A-share bond yield spread was recorded at 3.8265%, which is near the 86.09% percentile level since 2010, suggesting a relatively low risk premium compared to historical standards [36][38]. Group 4: Fund Management Trends - Public funds have increased their allocation to hard technology sectors in the first quarter of 2025, with significant increases in the allocation to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the North Exchange, while the allocation to the main board and ChiNext has decreased [39][42]. - The focus of active equity funds has shifted towards technology manufacturing sectors, particularly in automotive, electronics, and machinery equipment, while consumer sectors such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and retail have also gained attention [42][39]. Group 5: Policy Insights - The April Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of a "sustained, stable, and active capital market," which reflects a more proactive policy stance aimed at boosting investor confidence. The meeting called for the implementation of more proactive macro policies to support the A-share market [43][44]. - Key investment areas highlighted include dividend-paying sectors with strong performance and defensive attributes, technology sectors benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors that are expected to improve due to enhanced domestic demand strategies [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting affirmed the economic work since this year, stating that the economy shows a positive trend, social confidence is continuously boosted, and high - quality development is steadily advanced. However, the foundation for the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy needs further consolidation, and external shock impacts are increasing [1]. - More proactive and effective macro - policies should be implemented, making full use of fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policy will see an acceleration in the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and monetary policy may involve reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the creation of new structural monetary policy tools [1]. - Supporting consumption and expanding domestic demand, as well as preventing risks and ensuring people's livelihoods, are key directions. Policies will focus on boosting service consumption, clearing restrictive measures in the consumption field, and promoting the stable recovery of the real estate market [2]. - In the face of increasing Sino - US trade frictions, the government will strengthen support for enterprises, such as increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance fund for job - retention returns for affected enterprises [3]. - The meeting emphasizes the leading role of technological innovation in developing new - quality productive forces and plans to launch a "technology board" in the bond market [3]. - The impact of the meeting on the bond market is expected to be neutral in the short term, with long - term bond yields likely to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the peak supply of government bonds in May and the actual impact of external demand on the macro - economy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation Review and Judgment - The meeting affirmed the economic work since this year, with the economy showing a positive trend, social confidence continuously boosted, and high - quality development steadily advanced. But it also pointed out that the foundation for the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy needs further consolidation, and external shock impacts are increasing [1]. 3.2 Policy Orientation 3.2.1 Macro - policy - Fiscal policy: Use and make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. It is expected that the supply of government bonds will peak from May, and the short - term fiscal support for the economic fundamentals to stabilize will be more obvious [1]. - Monetary policy: Use and make full use of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a re - emphasis on "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts". New structural monetary policy tools and new policy - based financial tools will be created to support economic development in areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [1]. 3.2.2 Consumption and Domestic Demand - Support consumption and expand domestic demand. Increase the income of low - and middle - income groups, vigorously develop service consumption, and enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. Clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field and set up service consumption and pension re - loans [2]. 3.2.3 Risk Prevention - Continue to resolve debts and focus on the stable recovery of the real estate market. Accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, increase the supply of high - quality housing, optimize the policy for purchasing existing commercial housing, and consolidate the stability of the real - estate market [2]. 3.2.4 Support for Enterprises - In the context of increasing Sino - US trade frictions, increase the proportion of unemployment insurance fund for job - retention returns for enterprises greatly affected by tariffs, and strengthen support for enterprises going global [3]. 3.2.5 Technological Innovation - Place technological innovation in a prominent position, cultivate and expand new - quality productive forces, build a number of emerging pillar industries, and promote key core technology research. Innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market and accelerate the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [3]. 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - The impact of the meeting on the bond market is expected to be neutral in the short term, with long - term bond yields likely to fluctuate. On one hand, observe the impact of the peak supply of government bonds in May and the timing and intensity of loose monetary policy implementation; on the other hand, pay attention to the actual impact of external demand on the macro - economy [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a revenue growth rate of 24.92% in 2025, followed by 23.72% in 2026 and 21.32% in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 32.02% in 2025, 24.84% in 2026, and 23.75% in 2027 [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable, with slight increases from 64.51% in 2024 to 65.70% in 2027 [4] - The company’s diluted EPS is projected to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2024 to 2.29 yuan in 2027 [4] Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is expected to grow from 442.83 million yuan in 2024 to 830.31 million yuan in 2027 [7] - Operating profit is projected to increase from 152.94 million yuan in 2024 to 315.49 million yuan in 2027 [7] - Net profit is forecasted to rise from 133.75 million yuan in 2024 to 276.06 million yuan in 2027 [7] Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 1460.09 million yuan in 2024 to 1829.79 million yuan in 2027 [6] - Current assets are projected to increase from 851.29 million yuan in 2024 to 1224.82 million yuan in 2027 [6] - Total liabilities are expected to rise from 154.64 million yuan in 2024 to 227.11 million yuan in 2027 [6] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 112.32 million yuan in 2024 to 276.82 million yuan in 2027 [6] - The net cash increase is expected to turn positive, from -68.41 million yuan in 2024 to 88.15 million yuan in 2027 [6]