核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 策略研究 · 策略点评 12 月中央政治局会议对投资的启示 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，公募基金三季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，2025 年 11 月投资组合报告："十五 五"新蓝图与市场新机遇 2025-10-29，变局蕴机遇，驶向新蓝海——《"十五 五"规划建议》解码 A 股投资全景图 2025-10-22，布局消费主题 ...

固收研究报告 政策表态倾斜"存量"，债市区间运行 ——12 月中央政治局会议简评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 核心观点 ⚫ 前期回顾和当下形势判断：会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，表示"统筹国内国际两个 大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现""经济运行 总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解 取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定"，预计今年 5%的 GDP 增速 目标完成概率较大；同时也明确了明年经济工作的方向，定调明年"要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效""持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"，对于明年经济在稳增 长的基础上更加注重存量的优先盘活与使用、质量效能的提高更加看重。 ⚫ 各个方向政策如何定调？ 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。本次针对宏观政策 取向要求延续去年 12 月以及今年 7 月的"更加积极"，针对货币和财政政策的表述， 财政政策"更加积极"、货币政策"适度宽松"，意味着今年的宏观政策得到认可，明 年 将 延 续今 年 的整 体 政策 方 向，积 极 扩 张的 财 政政 策 以及 适 ...

"逆""跨"结合，提质增效 ——12 月政治局会议解读 2025 证 12 证 8 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 -8096 证zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 路自愿 证136-7105 -7587 证luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525070001 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the pure ESG strategy achieved an excess return of 5.01% in November 2025, indicating strong performance in the ESG investment space [1] - The ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) reported a total return of -0.4% for the latest month, with a relative total return of 2%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -3% [3][6] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy (CSI 300) achieved a total return of 1% for the latest month, with a relative total return of 3%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -1% [7][10] Group 2 - The market performance in November showed that the pure ESG strategy, ESG & SOE strategy, and pure SOE strategy all generated excess returns, with the pure ESG strategy yielding the highest returns [12] - As of December 1, 2025, the cumulative return for the ESG & SOE strategy was 93.93%, while the pure SOE strategy had a cumulative return of 75.30%, and the pure ESG strategy reached 101.42% [12] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 was 19,145 billion CNY, indicating an increase compared to previous values [17] Group 3 - The valuation situation shows that the PE ratio for the CSI 300 is at a high level, with a PE ratio of 21.85, while the SOE PE ratio is 10.36 and the national enterprise PE ratio is 10.17 [17] - The average daily trading volume for SOEs was 657 billion CNY, reflecting an increase from previous periods [17] - The national carbon market saw an increase in both transaction volume and price, with the closing price for carbon emission allowances at 59.65 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [23]

Export Performance - In November, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.1%[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year export growth rate for November is 2.8%[5] - The increase in exports is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from last year[6] Import Trends - Imports in November totaled $218.67 billion, with a growth rate of 1.9%, slightly up from 1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year import growth rate for November is 0%[7] - Industrial production recovery and increased demand for certain commodities, such as grains (15.4% growth) and rubber (11.3% growth), supported import growth[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion, an increase from $90.07 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, significantly up from 0.9% previously, likely due to pre-Christmas shipping demands[15] - Exports to the US saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28.6%, worsening from -25.2%[15] - Exports to Africa rebounded to 27.6%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[16] Product-Specific Insights - The export growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products improved, with automotive exports increasing by 53% and integrated circuits by 34.2%[22] - Labor-intensive products showed varying recovery, with a notable improvement in toys and textiles[24] Future Outlook - Cumulative export growth from January to November was 5.4%, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.8% for 2024[26] - The export growth outlook remains resilient despite uncertainties in US-China relations and global economic conditions[26] Risks - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[33]

分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 宏观动态报告 美国中期选举前瞻：政治重心内移？ 2025 年 12 月 7 日 铁伟奥 ：13683240373 ：tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 风险提示 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 2026 年美国迎来中期选举，对于特朗普政府而言，内政和外交事务的优先级可能 面临阶段性调整。美国以三权分立闻名，国会（众议院+参议院）掌握立法权，中 期 选 举 将 改 选全 部 众 议 院席 位和 三 分 之 一 的参 议 院 席 位， 同时 涉 及 州 长 及地 方 议 会席位的换届。中期选举是对特朗普重掌政权两年以来成果的检验，一旦失去国会 控制权，特朗普将再次面临"跛脚鸭"困境。 ⚫ 总统"跛脚"有何影响？其一，政策推进效率大幅度下滑。根据美国立法流程，法 案须经两院分别表决通过才能生效，若执政党政府未能 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Domestic consumption shows improvement with a year-on-year decline in passenger car retail sales narrowing to 1.2%[3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high for December 2023, increasing by 23.2%[3] - Movie box office revenue surged due to the release of a popular animated film, contributing to a 5.4% increase in overall entertainment spending[3] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - Seasonal production continues to decline, with a decrease of 2.92 percentage points in production intensity[3] - Real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak, with production intensity at 32.55%[3] - The chemical industry shows varied performance, with PTA production at 73.81%[3] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in pork prices while fruit and vegetable prices continue to rise, with CPI growth at 1.06%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects rising prices in crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI crude oil prices up by 2.61%[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are increasing, influenced by U.S. employment and inflation data[3] - Hassett is likely to succeed the current Fed chair, with a clear bias towards easing monetary policy[4]

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Group 1 - The report suggests a cautious investment strategy in the convertible bond market due to reduced liquidity and market volatility, recommending a defensive approach with a focus on large-cap, debt-oriented products and value styles [2][50]. - The recommended allocation includes 70% in defensive sectors such as infrastructure, military, refining, and banking, while 30% is allocated to high-elasticity sectors like consumption and technology, which may benefit from potential policy support [2][50]. - The report highlights a recommended convertible bond portfolio for December, including specific bonds such as Shanlu Convertible Bond and Shenghong Convertible Bond, among others [2][50]. Group 2 - The report reviews the convertible bond market in November, noting a 2.2% decline in the stock market and a 0.7% decline in convertible bonds, with a shift towards defensive sectors [4][6]. - It indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on the continuation of style shifts and policy impacts from upcoming central meetings [35][46]. - The report emphasizes the performance of various sectors, with steel bonds leading gains at 11.8%, while non-bank financials and telecommunications experienced declines [19][22]. Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of quantitative strategies, noting that low-volatility strategies outperformed high-volatility strategies in the recent period, with year-to-date returns of 16.55% for low-volatility strategies [52][53]. - It highlights the importance of low-price factors in convertible bond selection, which have historically provided a safety margin while allowing for upside potential [53][55]. - The report provides insights into the market structure, indicating a significant reduction in the overall market size of convertible bonds, which has implications for future valuations and investment strategies [35][39].

产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 "十五五"系列研究报告 产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 2025 证 12 证 04 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 8096 证zhangjun _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 研究助理：刘小逸 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证证证证证证证证证证证证证·证证 证证证证证证证证证证 ...