Economic Overview - Industrial production increased by 5.2% in December, driven by strong export growth[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a recovery, with a 0.2% increase in December compared to a decline of 1.9% in the previous year[1] - Profit margins improved slightly to 5.31%, with manufacturing sector margins continuing to show an upward trend[1] Inventory and Cost Management - Inventory levels shifted to a passive reduction, with a decrease of 6.73% in December[1] - Cost pressures remain, but there was an improvement in cash flow management, with a 3.6% increase in cash turnover[1] Profit Structure and Future Outlook - The profit structure is upgrading, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors being the main contributors to profit growth, showing increases of 7.7% and 39.8% respectively[1] - Looking ahead, industrial profit growth is expected to continue into 2025, supported by domestic demand expansion policies and potential growth in service consumption[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, particularly recommending leading passenger car companies and those involved in the intelligent and humanoid robotics supply chains [5]. Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive sales are expected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to 34.4 million units, with domestic sales rising by 6.7% to 27.3 million units, driven by the continued implementation of vehicle replacement policies [1][2][9]. - Exports are projected to grow by 12.1% to 7.1 million units, marking the first time exports exceed 7 million units, supported by the increasing international market influence of domestic brands and high growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][10]. - NEV sales are anticipated to rise by 28.2% to 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate increasing by 7.0 percentage points to 47.9% [2][10]. - For 2026, automotive sales are forecasted to grow by 1% to 34.75 million units, with NEV sales expected to increase by 15.2% to 1.9 million units, supported by ongoing policy optimization and expansion in overseas markets [3][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - 2025 automotive sales are projected at 34.4 million units, with domestic sales at 27.3 million units and exports at 7.1 million units [2][10]. - NEV sales are expected to reach 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate of 47.9% [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing strong domestic demand and high export growth, contributing to a high level of market activity in 2025 [2][10]. - The influence of domestic brands in international markets is increasing, particularly in the NEV segment, which is driving export growth [2][10]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue providing support for the domestic automotive market in 2026, despite some adjustments in tax incentives [3][11]. - The transition to NEVs is accelerating in the commercial vehicle market, with significant achievements in overseas market expansion for domestic NEV products [2][10].

Core Insights - The ESG screening strategy achieved an excess return of 0.12% for the week ending January 23, 2026, with a total return of -2% over the last month, compared to a relative total return of -3% [1][4][7] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy underperformed, with a weekly decline of 0.86% and a total return of -3% for the last month, resulting in a relative total return of -5% [1][8][11] ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The strategy utilizes insights from the report published on December 8, 2023, which integrates ESG factors with Markowitz portfolio theory [1][4] - Weekly performance: down 0.50% against the CSI 300's decline of 0.62%, yielding an excess return of 0.12% [1][4] - Monthly performance metrics include a total return of -2%, maximum gain of 2%, maximum loss of -3%, and a Sharpe ratio of -2.44 [1][4][7] ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - This strategy is based on the report released on February 28, 2025, which also combines ESG sentiment with Markowitz portfolio theory [1][8] - Weekly performance: down 0.86% compared to the CSI 300's -0.62%, resulting in an excess return of -0.24% [1][8] - Monthly performance metrics show a total return of -3%, maximum gain of 1%, maximum loss of -4%, and a Sharpe ratio of -3.98 [1][8][11] Performance Statistics - For the ESG screening strategy, the annualized average return since inception is 19%, with a maximum drawdown of -8% and a tracking error of 1% [7] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy has an annualized average return of 27% since inception, with a maximum drawdown of -10% and a tracking error of 1% [11]

- The report highlights the performance of quantitative funds, particularly index-enhanced funds, with the China Securities 1000 Index Enhanced Fund achieving a weekly median excess return of 0.72%[3][4][7] - The China Securities 500 Index Enhanced Fund showed a weekly median excess return of -0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index Enhanced Fund achieved 0.42% during the same period[3][4][5] - Other index-enhanced funds recorded a weekly median return of 0.14%, with the best-performing fund achieving a return of 7.42% and the worst-performing fund at -3.19%[3][4][8] - Absolute return (hedging) funds had a weekly median return of 0.12%, while other active quantitative funds achieved a significantly higher weekly median return of 2.35%[3][8][10] - Multi-factor funds demonstrated strong performance with a weekly median return of 3.78%, and the best-performing fund in this category achieved a return of 5.32%[15][19][20] - Big data-driven active investment funds achieved a weekly median return of 1.50%, with the best-performing fund reaching 6.00% and the worst-performing fund at -1.59%[15][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its dividend value and low valuation as attractive for long-term investors [5][10]. Core Insights - A package of fiscal and financial policies has been introduced to support the banking sector, particularly in optimizing loan structures and stabilizing interest margins [7][8]. - The banking sector has experienced a decline of 7.44% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market, primarily due to passive fund outflows [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for credit growth and structural optimization in the banking sector, driven by government policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises [8][9]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The report discusses the implementation of six fiscal and financial policies aimed at enhancing credit support for small and medium enterprises, including a 1.5% interest subsidy on loans [7][8]. - These policies are expected to lower overall financing costs and stimulate demand, thereby benefiting the banking sector [8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector index fell by 2.70% during the week, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.62% [18]. - State-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks saw declines of 4.36%, 3.08%, 0.43%, and 0.70%, respectively [18]. Valuation and Company Performance - As of January 23, 2026, the banking sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 0.64, indicating a 32.99% discount compared to the overall A-share market [35]. - The sector's dividend yield is reported at 4.92%, which is higher than the average for all A-shares, ranking second among industries [35]. - Eight listed banks have reported stable earnings recovery for 2025, with most showing growth in total assets compared to 2024 [15][16].

Price Trends Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound, but this does not equate to comprehensive re-inflation, as its influence on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is conditional and phase-dependent[1] - The divergence between CPI and PPI is attributed to increased labor costs, supply-demand imbalances, and changes in policy environments[1] - In 2012, CPI was at 24% while PPI was significantly lower, indicating a historical trend of divergence[4] Causal Relationships - A significant unidirectional positive causality exists from PPI to CPI, while the reverse is not statistically significant[1] - The price transmission mechanism shows variability over time; during demand expansion and policy alignment, PPI positively influences CPI, but this effect weakens during economic adjustments[1] Future Price Outlook - Short to medium-term price increases are primarily driven by rising international commodity prices, leading to cost-push and substitution effects[1] - A 10% increase in crude oil extraction prices is projected to raise PPI by approximately 0.35 percentage points and CPI by about 0.15 percentage points[1] - A similar 10% increase in non-ferrous metal extraction prices is expected to increase PPI and CPI by approximately 0.18 and 0.05 percentage points, respectively[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include economic structural adjustments and macroeconomic regulatory factors that may impact the transmission of PPI to CPI[1]

Group 1 - The stock position of actively managed equity funds decreased, while the A-share position continued to rise, with a total stock value of 3.39 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, down by 0.19 trillion yuan from Q3 2025. The A-share market value was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.08 trillion yuan [2][8] - The stock allocation structure saw a decrease of 1.40 percentage points to 84.22%, remaining at a historically high level since 2005. The proportion of A-shares in asset allocation continued to rise, increasing by 0.66 percentage points to 72.18% [2][8] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for the ChiNext board increased from 23.62% to 24.83%, while the allocation ratios for other boards declined, with the Sci-Tech Innovation board down by 0.93 percentage points [12][13] - The large-cap style's holding value ratio increased by 1.24 percentage points, while the small-cap style decreased by 0.38 percentage points. Among the five major style indices, the cyclical style's holding value ratio rose by 3.23 percentage points [14][16] Group 3 - In terms of industry allocation, 18 primary industries saw an increase in holding value ratios, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals, communication, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, and machinery equipment, each rising by over 0.5 percentage points [17][20] - The top ten industries with increased holdings included communication equipment, industrial metals, insurance II, components, energy metals, general equipment, chemical products, minor metals, airport operations, and grid equipment [31][32] Group 4 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the allocation ratio for actively managed equity funds decreased to 16.10%, down by 3.09 percentage points from Q3 2025. The materials sector saw a significant increase in holding value ratio by 2.42 percentage points, while the financial sector increased by 2.33 percentage points [40][42] - The top five industries in the Hong Kong stock market included software services, medical biology, consumer discretionary retail, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, with respective holding values of 626 billion yuan, 430 billion yuan, 344 billion yuan, 237 billion yuan, and 213 billion yuan [45][46] Group 5 - The concentration of the top twenty stocks held by actively managed equity funds showed slight fluctuations, with 17 A-shares and 3 Hong Kong stocks. The number of stocks in the electronic and non-bank financial sectors increased by one, while those in the electric power equipment and medical biology sectors decreased by one [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of six fiscal and financial policies aims to stimulate domestic demand, focusing on structural optimization and interest margin improvement [3] - The fiscal interest subsidies, typically between 1-1.5 percentage points, are designed to lower overall financing costs, boost investment and consumption demand, and guide financial resources towards key areas such as technology innovation and support for small and micro enterprises [3] - The report highlights that the fiscal policies will positively support banks in optimizing their structures and stabilizing interest margins, with expectations of a narrowing decline in interest margins due to the upcoming maturity of high-interest fixed deposits in 2026 [3] - The establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and the optimization of risk-sharing mechanisms for corporate bonds are expected to enhance banks' asset quality and increase their willingness to issue long-term loans [3] - The report suggests that the collaborative fiscal and financial policies will directly benefit credit growth, structural optimization, and risk expectation improvement, while the stable interest margin guidance remains unchanged [3] Summary by Sections Banking Industry - The report emphasizes the positive impact of fiscal policies on credit growth and structural optimization, with a focus on improving risk expectations and stabilizing interest margins [3] - Specific recommendations for individual banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and China Merchants Bank [3]

Policy Coordination - Five new fiscal policies were released on January 20, 2026, focusing on consumer loans and private investment, demonstrating effective coordination with the central bank's monetary policies[1] - The policies aim to enhance domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises[1] Fiscal Policy Details - A new interest subsidy policy for small and medium enterprises offers a 1.5% annual subsidy with a loan cap of 50 million, targeting 14 key industrial chains[2] - A special guarantee plan for private investment has a total quota of 500 billion, implemented over two years, with a compensation cap raised to 5%[2] - The equipment upgrade loan interest subsidy policy includes a 1.5% annual subsidy for technology innovation loans, with a two-year term[3] Economic Projections - The fiscal policy framework for 2026 indicates an increase in total expenditure, with a projected narrow deficit rate of around 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.9 trillion[6] - The broad budget deficit is expected to be around 12.5 trillion, with a broad deficit rate of about 8.5%[6] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic economic recovery, inadequate policy implementation, and significant weakness in the real estate market[9]

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of quantitative funds, particularly index-enhanced funds, absolute return funds, and other active quantitative funds, without detailing specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[2][3][4] - The performance of index-enhanced funds is highlighted, with the CSI 300 Index Enhanced Funds achieving a weekly excess return median of 0.49%, while CSI 500 Index Enhanced Funds had a negative weekly excess return median of -0.25%. CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Funds and CSI A500 Index Enhanced Funds recorded weekly excess return medians of 0.43% and 0.39%, respectively[3][4][5] - Absolute return (hedging) funds achieved a weekly return median of 0.19%, while other active quantitative funds recorded a higher weekly return median of 1.51%[8][9][10] - Other strategy funds, such as multi-factor funds, demonstrated strong performance with a weekly return median of 1.89%, while big data-driven active investment funds showed a negative weekly return median of -0.89%[15][19][20]