Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly fading, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year[56]

⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 2024-09-13 2024-10-10 2024-10-28 2024-11-13 2024-11-29 2024-12-17 2025-01-03 2025-01-21 2025-02-14 2025-03-04 2025-03-20 2025-04-08 2025-04-24 2025-05-15 2025-06-03 2025-06-19 2025-07-07 2025-07-23 2025-08-08 2025-08-26 2025-09-11 交通运输(申万) 沪深300 =国银河证券|CGS 行业周报 ·交通运输行业 量实现 4.52 亿吨,同比+4.47%;铁路货运周转量实现 3042.17 亿吨公里,同 比+6.50%。 公路：2025年 7 月，公路客运量为 9.50 亿人,同比-4.35%;公路旅客周转量 为 441.13 亿人公里,同比-2.22%;公路货运量实现 36.99 亿吨,同比+3.28%; 公路货运周转量实现 6742.80 亿吨公里,同比+3.41%。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股 ...

行业点评报告 ·银行业 政府债支撑减弱，存款搬家延续 —— 2025 年 8 月金融数据点评 2025 年 9 月 14 日 银行 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ：010-8092-7617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-09-12 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 社融转为同比少增：8 月新增社融 2.57 万亿元，同比少增 4630 亿元；截至 8 月末，社融存量同比+8.81%，增速环比-0.17pct。受发行减少与高基数影响， 政府债对社融的支撑减弱。人民币信贷仍少增，居民和企业部门有效信贷需求 仍待修复。M1 继续改善、M2 保持平稳，存款搬家现象延续。 ⚫ 人民币贷款与政府债发行 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In September, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 304,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%[1] - As of September 12, the average number of domestic flights was 12,800, a month-on-month decrease of 12.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2023.7, a month-on-month increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year increase of 2.84%[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of September 13, the average operating rate of blast furnaces rebounded by 3.47 percentage points to 83.58%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production averaged 42.62%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of PTA production increased by 5.47 percentage points to 74.95%[1] Price Performance - As of September 12, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week-on-week, while the price of eggs rose by 2.41% week-on-week[1] - The PPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%[4] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.87% and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.22% as of September 12[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of interbank pledged repos increased to 7.5 trillion yuan[3] - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8670%, an increase of 4 basis points[3] Overseas Macro and Market - The U.S. CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations[4] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4, the lowest since May of this year[4]

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Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance from September 8 to September 12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.82% to 26,388.16 points, marking the highest level since September 2021 [4][5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.31%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 3.40% [4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong market, all but the healthcare sector saw gains, with real estate, information technology, and materials leading the way with increases of 6.56%, 6.08%, and 5.71% respectively [5][12] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 303.03 billion, a decrease of HKD 12.76 billion from the previous week [12] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 60.82 billion, an increase of HKD 27.76 billion compared to the previous week [12] - The short-selling amount averaged HKD 34.40 billion, which accounted for 11.38% of the trading volume, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the previous week [12] Group 3 - As of September 12, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.04 times and 1.23 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.7% and 4.47% from the previous week [17] - The Hang Seng Technology Index had a PE ratio of 23.12 times and a PB ratio of 3.38 times, indicating that it is positioned at the 31% and 73% percentile levels since 2019 [17] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.25%, which is at the 5% percentile level since 2010 [20][26] Group 4 - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors with high earnings growth but relatively low valuations, such as consumer discretionary and healthcare [40] - It also suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as the AI industry chain and consumer sectors [40] - Financial sectors with high dividend yields are expected to provide stable returns amid uncertainties [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - The evolution of AI is shifting from code and models to a global collaborative system centered around data, computing power, and open-source resources. The reliance on ground-based data centers is transitioning to "computing satellites" for space data processing and deep space exploration [1]. - The "Trinity Computing Constellation," consisting of 12 computing satellites, has been successfully launched, marking the establishment of a new category of satellites focused on in-orbit computing. This innovation significantly enhances response speed and decision-making efficiency [1]. - The business model of the Trinity Computing Constellation includes three main directions: space computing leasing, space communication and star cable plans, and monetization of intelligent data assets [1]. - The strategic vision includes deploying "solar satellites" at the L5 point for deep space exploration, addressing the need for independent computing power in long-term space missions [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential market growth in B2B computing scheduling and data transmission, aligning with national policies and presenting global opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic leap in space computing and the new opportunities in satellite internet, highlighting the shift from traditional communication to intelligent infrastructure [1]. Market Potential - The demand for computing power and data transmission in the B2B market is identified as a core growth area for satellite communication commercialization [1]. Policy Alignment - The developments align with China's "integrated space-ground" strategy and the "East Data West Computing" initiative, suggesting favorable policy conditions for industry growth [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Putian Technology, Tongyu Communication, Zhenyou Technology, and others that are positioned to benefit from these trends in the satellite communication sector [1].

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 太空算力的战略跃迁,卫星互联网迎来新空间 2025 年 09月 12 日 核心观点 通信行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 赵良毕 ☎：010-8092-7619 网: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030003 www.chinastock.com.cn 研究助理:刘璐 网: yj.liulu@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-09-11 150% 100% 00% 相关研究 1. 【银河通信】行业点评_联通获卫星移动通信牌 照,卫星通信进程加速 2. 【银河通信】行业点评:卫星互联组网或加速,市 场增量迎来大空间 3. 【银河通信】行业深度报告_太空算力:打破传统 地天观,重构天基智能版图 4. 【银河通信】行业深度报告_揽星补地贯通寰宇, 拓维重构数智之疆 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件: 近日,在 2025 Inclusion·外滩大会上,阿里云创始人、之江实验室主 ● 任表示,AI 的演进已进入"变量发生了变化"的关键阶段：竞争不 ...

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 太空算力的战略跃迁,卫星互联网迎来新空间 2025 年 09月 12 日 核心观点 通信行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 赵良毕 ☎：010-8092-7619 网: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030003 2. 【银河通信】行业点评:卫星互联组网或加速,市 场增量迎来大空间 3. 【银河通信】行业深度报告_太空算力:打破传统 地天观,重构天基智能版图 4. 【银河通信】行业深度报告_揽星补地贯通寰宇, 拓维重构数智之疆 研究助理:刘璐 网: yj.liulu@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-09-11 150% 100% 00% 相关研究 1. 【银河通信】行业点评_联通获卫星移动通信牌 照,卫星通信进程加速 赵良毕,通信&中小盘首席分析师。北京邮电大学通信硕士,复合学科背景,2022年加入中国银河证券。8年中国移动通信产 业研究经验，6年证券从业经验。曾获得 2018/2019年〈机构投资者 II-财新〉通信行业最佳分析师前三名，2020年获得 Wind（万 得）金牌通 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the issuance of the second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs progresses, Sci - tech Bonds have certain investment value at the current stage. The inflow of incremental funds is expected to compress the spreads of Sci - tech Bond ETF component bonds, and investors can look for opportunities in the potential spread compression of component bonds [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs Issued, Incremental Funds to Enter the Market - On September 12, 2025, 14 Sci - tech Bond ETFs of the second batch were issued. Among them, 10 track the CSI AAA Sci - tech Corporate Bond Index, 3 track the SSE AAA Sci - tech Corporate Bond Index, and 1 tracks the SZSE AAA Sci - tech Corporate Bond Index. They were declared on August 20, approved on September 8, and officially issued on September 12 [1][7]. - Referring to the first batch, the second - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs are expected to be listed from late September to early October. The first batch took about a month from application to listing, and the second - batch issuance is from September 12 - 18 [8]. - It is estimated that the second - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs will raise 37 - 42 billion yuan, bringing incremental funds to the Sci - tech Bond market. The first batch of 10 ETFs had a cap of 3 billion yuan each and raised 28.99 billion yuan in total, reaching 96.6% of the cap [1][12]. 3.2 Characteristics of Underlying Assets and Market Effects of the First Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs - As of September 11, the first - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs held 633 Sci - tech Bonds, with remaining maturities mostly 2 - 3 years and 4 - 5 years, implied ratings mostly AAA and AA +, and industries mostly in the industrial sector [2][14]. - The passive allocation effect of the first - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs significantly affected the valuation of component bonds. The excess spreads of component bonds (calculated as the spread of Sci - tech Bond ETF component bonds minus the spread of medium - and short - term notes of the same maturity and rating) narrowed significantly during the issuance and construction periods. The process can be divided into three stages: from issuance to listing, the excess spread compressed by 5.1BP to - 7.9BP; after listing, it continued to decline by nearly 5BP to - 12.7BP; although there was a slight correction in credit bonds, the expected new issuance of Sci - tech Bond ETFs drove the excess spread to repair to - 12.6BP [2][21]. 3.3 Seize Opportunities in Spread Compression with Incremental Funds - The second - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs are expected to bring 37 - 42 billion yuan of incremental funds. Similar to the first batch, the excess spreads of their component bonds are expected to compress again during the concentrated construction and allocation period after September 12 [3][27]. - The yields of existing ETF component bonds are generally 4 - 20BP lower than non - component bonds in the index, showing an obvious premium. Attention should be paid to the degree of gambling [3][28]. - There are still over 363 index component bonds not fully covered by the first - batch ETFs. Investors can select high - quality individual bonds that meet the requirements of new ETF construction to capture spread compression opportunities [4][28].