Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The effective credit demand in the banking sector remains weak, with a slowdown in deposit migration observed [5]. - Social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total social financing stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The contribution of government bonds and RMB loans to social financing has weakened, while corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing have gained traction [5]. - The demand for credit from the household sector continues to be weak, with a notable decrease in short-term loans [5]. - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have declined, indicating a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. - The report suggests that the support from government bonds for social financing is diminishing, and credit demand still needs to recover [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing dividend value of banks, driven by factors such as a low-interest-rate environment and substantial dividend payouts, and continues to favor the banking sector [5]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry Overview - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in effective credit demand and a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. Social Financing and Credit Demand - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total stock grew by 8.5% [5]. - RMB loans increased by 405.3 billion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan [5]. - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, indicating insufficient consumer demand [5]. Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.9% and 8% respectively, with a month-on-month decline [5]. - The total deposits in financial institutions increased by 1.41 trillion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, highlighting their ongoing dividend value [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which is expected to boost consumer confidence in the textile and apparel sector. The retail sales of clothing showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to October 2025, with a notable increase of 6.3% in October alone, indicating a potential shift from "moderate recovery" to "accelerated warming" in 2026 [3] - Despite challenges such as tariff fluctuations and overseas inventory cycles, textile exports maintained a positive growth of 1.2% year-on-year from January to November 2025. However, apparel exports faced a decline of 3.7% during the same period, highlighting the pressure on finished garment exports [3] - The report highlights the significance of innovation and technological advancement in the industry, with leading companies focusing on product innovation and digital transformation to enhance competitiveness and meet evolving consumer demands for high-quality and sustainable products [3] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-demand outdoor sports brands and textile manufacturers with overseas production capabilities. Recommended companies include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, among others [3]

Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 6.2% in the previous month[1] - M2 growth rate also fell to 8.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.2% previously[1] - New social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.5%[1] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans amounted to 390 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.4%[1] - Resident deposit growth rate continued to decline, estimated at 9.56% in November, down from 9.69%[1] - Total new deposits in financial institutions were 1.41 trillion yuan, with resident deposits increasing by 670 billion yuan and corporate deposits by 645.3 billion yuan[3] Social Financing Insights - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by corporate bond financing and off-balance-sheet financing, while government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy were the main drag[4] - Effective social financing growth rate (excluding government financing) was 6.00%, up from 5.92%[6] - Government bond financing growth rate fell to 18.8%, down from 19.2%[6] Market and Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated[7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy[7] - The market expects 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, totaling a reduction of 10-20 basis points[7]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2025.12.12） 2025 年 12 月 12 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-12-12 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美美到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 12 月 12 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为+0.31%，收于 1,447.69 点。北证 50 指 数开盘点位为 1,434.11 点，最高点位达 1,477.11 点 ...

Group 1: Key Signals for 2026 Opening Up - The overall keyword shifts from "stability" to "diversity" and "win-win" in international cooperation[2] - Emphasis on institutional opening, particularly in the service sector and free trade pilot zones, transitioning from "quantitative" to "qualitative" changes[9] - "Integration" in trade and investment is identified as the future development direction[11] Group 2: Key Support Points for Implementation - Strengthening the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port as a new high ground for institutional opening, with a focus on financial and trade investment openness[18] - Promoting synchronization of domestic and foreign trade policies, standard recognition, and smooth capital flow to facilitate integrated development[19] - Enhancing the level of China's service industry while reasonably reducing opening restrictions to promote service trade and exports[19]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, indicating a potential recovery in valuations as the sector transitions to high-quality development [4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and accelerate the construction of a new development model for the sector [4]. - The average transaction price for residential properties in China as of October 2025 was 9,588.1 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.78% [4]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 396 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of implementing city-specific policies to manage new housing supply and reduce inventory levels [4]. - The reform of the housing provident fund system is expected to expand its applicability, enhancing support for housing purchases and rental payments [4]. - The report anticipates a dual supply model of both commercial and affordable housing to meet diverse residential needs [4]. - The conference also called for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, which could benefit shopping centers and service consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference's focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes measures to control new housing supply and manage inventory effectively [4]. - The report notes the necessity of encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing to address basic residential needs [4]. New Development Model - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the housing provident fund system, which aim to broaden its usage for various housing-related expenses [4]. - The implementation of new standards for residential projects is expected to enhance property management and service quality [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including: - Strong developers: China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [4]. - Quality property management: Greentown Service [4]. - Leading commercial real estate: Hang Lung Properties [4]. - Major construction firms: Greentown Management Holdings [4]. - Leading real estate agencies: Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [4].

Economic Projections - The projected change in real GDP for 2025 is 1.7%, increasing to 2.3% in 2026, and stabilizing at 2.0% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, with a long-term average of 1.8%[6] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.2% by 2028, maintaining a long-term rate of 4.2%[6] - PCE inflation is projected to decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, with a long-term target of 2.0%[6] Federal Funds Rate - The Federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% in 2025, decreasing to 3.1% by 2027 and stabilizing at 3.0% in the long run[6] - The September projection for the Federal funds rate was consistent with the current projections, indicating stability in monetary policy expectations[6] Market Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability of the Federal funds rate being between 325-350 basis points by January 2026, with probabilities increasing for subsequent meetings[11] - By March 2026, the probability of the rate being between 350-375 basis points rises to 52.0%[11] Inflation and Economic Stability - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, aligning with the long-term inflation target[6] - The projections suggest a gradual stabilization of inflation rates, contributing to overall economic stability[6]

美国启动"创世纪计划"，以 AI 驱动科研革命 —— 数字经济双周报（2025 年第 22 期） 2025 年 12 月 10 日 核心观点 ⚫ 本期焦点：美国近期启动的"创世纪计划"显示其试图通过人工智能全面 重塑国家科研体系，并在全球科技竞争中保持主导地位。 该计划由总统行政令推出，由能源部负责执行，重点是整合国家实验室的超级 计算机、科研数据与安全云环境，建设统一的"美国科学与安全平台"。平台 将支撑高性能计算、科学基础模型与自动化实验等能力，使科研人员能够在统 一框架 下利用 数十年 积累 的 实验数 据开展 模型训 练与 实 验推演 ，提高 科研效 率。计划同时推动企业深度参与，OpenAI、谷歌、微软、英伟达等公司获得 优先合作机会，并在标准制定中拥有更大影响力，企业也将以算力和工程能力 反哺政府项目。 当前，欧洲、中国等地区都在积极发展"AI for Science"。美国也尝试通过 制度与 资源整 合把人 工智 能 纳入科 研主链 条，以 争取 下 一阶段 科学创 新的主 导权。 分析师 彭雅哲 ：010-80927607 ：pengyazhe_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师 ...

通胀还能持续回升吗？ —— 11 月物价数据解读 2025 证 12 证 10 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 宏观动态报告 ⚫ 1 1 月份 CPI 环比 微跌 0.1 %（前值 0.2%），同比上涨 0.7%（前值 0.2 %）， 其中翘尾因素较上月改善约 0.6 个百分点 。整体来看 翘尾因素叠加食品拖累 减弱是 CPI 回升主因 。证证证证证证证证 0.3% 证证证 0.7% 证证证证证证证 证证证证 -0.4% 证证证证证 2.9% (证证-4.4% )证证证 CPI 证证证证证 0.54 证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 0.2%证证证 -0.1% 证证证证证证证证证证证 0.1% 证 核心 CPI 环 ...