2025 年 7 月 2 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 中国 6 月财新制造业 PMI 50.4 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ESG: 6 月 ESG 央国企策略绝对收益为 2.97%。ESG 筛选策略（沪深 300）: ● 该策略是采用我们在 2023年 12月 8日发布的《厚积薄发,志存高远——ESG 投资策略解析与优化构建》报告中呈现的筛选策略,不但充分考察了 ESG 所 提供的增量风险信息,还结合了马科维兹资产组合理论。详细内容可参考原报 告。策略表现:截止 6 月 29 号,本月总回报为 1%,相对 总回报 为-1%、最大 涨幅为 3%，最大跌幅为-2%，夏普比例为 1.83。 化工：原油重回供需定价,关注成长属性标的。预计近期 Brent 油价在 60-70 0 美元/桶区间震荡运行,成本端暂不是左右行业盈利的关键,关键看行业供需 改善情况。近期全球地缘冲突 ...

2025 年 7 月 1 日 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 6月份 PMI 49.7, 制造业景气水平继续改善 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 宏观:畅想"十五五"的三大关键词——"十五五"系列报告之一。第一个关 ● 键词:承上启下,把握"十五五"时期的阶段性要求。第二个关键词:坚定不 移,更加强调大力发展新质生产力。第三个关键词:因势利导,进一步强化消 费的基础性作用。 宏观： 6 月 PMI: 积极和担忧都有哪些? 6 月份的 PMI 既有好消息也有令人 ● 担忧的方面,好消息是需求回到扩张区间带动生产继续上行,价格指数有所反 弹,采购指数站到荣枯线上,库存也有所增加。以上信息反映了我国经济有足 够的韧性,在对等关税暂缓和政策靠前发力的结合下,二季度经济比去年同期 表现更有韧性,二季度货币政策委员会例会对国内经济形势的判断为"呈现向 好态势,社会信心持续提振"。但另一方面, ...

宏观动态报告 6 月 PMI: 积极和担忧都有哪些 2025 年 6 月 30 日 国家统计局 6 月 30 日发布数据: 2025 年 6 月 份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.7%（前值 49.5%），制造业景气水平继续改善。建筑业商务活动指数为 52.8% （前值 51%）；服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.1个百分点。6 月份 PMI 的好消息是需求回到扩张区间并带动生产继续上行,同时价格指数有所反弹, 结合采购指数站到荣枯线上表明内生动能正在复苏。但另一方面，从业人员指数和 小型企业 PMI 回落也体现了当前微观主体在外部冲击之下面临一定的经营困难。 总体上在对等关税暂缓和政策靠前发力结合下，二季度经济比去年同期表现更有韧 性。 一、需求重回扩张,带动生产保持强势。6月生产指数 51%(前值 50.7%)。新 订单指数 50.2%(前值 49.8%)，新出口订单 47.7% (前值 47.5%）。6月 PMI 积 极的一面是新订单指数进入扩张区间,反映了扩大内需政策的效果,内生动能修复 明显,供需缺口(生产-新订单)收缩 0.1pct 至-0.8pct。从高频数据上看,6月前 ...

核心观点 本周焦点:政策与实践共振,数字货币加速落地。 0 近期,央行数字货币、稳定币等数字货币领域重要事件频发,市场关注度提升。 一是美国《GENIUS法案》顺利通过参议院审议,该法案是数字资产行业首次 获得联邦层面的法律规范,为稳定币市场发展与规范带来新的契机与挑战,或 将对国际货币秩序、美元资产体系具有潜在重构效应。二是中国提出设立数字 人民币国际运营中心,进一步推动数字人民币的国际化运营与金融市场业务 发展。三是国泰君安国际证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务,成为 首家获批加密货币交易的中资券商。 随着数字货币再次成为市场焦点,应理解央行数字货币、稳定币和比特币虽均 为数字货币的重要组成部分,但存在本质上的不同。货币属性方面,央行数字 货币是法币的数字化,稳定币是挂钩货币的代币,比特币只是资产而非货币。 市场规模方面,在国际市场中比特币的市值占据主导,稳定币的交易量占据主 导。价格稳定性方面,稳定币如 USDT、USDC 等币值基本稳定,而比特币涨 跌极易受到全球货币政策、重大行业事件冲击、通胀预期等因素影响。 2025年6月 30 日 分析师 数字经济周报(202506 第 3 期) 政策与实 ...

Macro Overview - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.7% [7][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [5][4] - The focus of structural monetary policy tools will be on technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market [5][4] Industrial Profit Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded a cumulative 4.97% from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.22 percentage points [8] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [11] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly in sectors related to new consumption and high-tech manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious stance on the bond market [13] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may provide a favorable environment for small-cap stocks, especially in the technology sector [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy continuity and the impact of international trade negotiations on domestic industries [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Ying Shi Innovation, a leader in the panoramic camera market, is projected to achieve revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.3% from 2022 to 2024 [27] - The company holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market, indicating strong competitive positioning [29] - The demand for smart imaging devices is diversifying, with applications in outdoor sports and vlogging, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [28]

策略研究 · 周度报告 地缘风险缓和、港股反弹回升 2025年06月29日 核心观点: 分析师 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23, 港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13, ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 地缘风险缓和、港股反弹回升 2025年06月29日 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23, 港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13, 地方两会对 ...

Profit Trends - From January to May 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The operating revenue for the same period was CNY 54.76 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[1] - In March 2025, profits saw a significant monthly decline of 9.1% year-on-year[1] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% in May 2025, indicating a marginal decline after a period of expansion[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% year-on-year in May, widening from a previous decline of 2.4%[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded 4.97% from January to May, with a year-on-year drop of 0.22 percentage points[1] Inventory and Costs - As of May 2025, finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.65 trillion, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has been declining[1] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.5 days, up by 4.1 days year-on-year, indicating cash flow pressure on enterprises[1] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.61, an increase of CNY 0.24 year-on-year, while operating expenses decreased by CNY 0.14 to CNY 8.29[1] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[1] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, highlighting challenges in the consumer goods sector[1] - The "new consumption" sectors, such as smart consumer devices, showed significant profit growth, with increases of 101.5% in profit for smart devices[1]

Key Insights - The report highlights the performance of various investment strategies during the period from June 10 to June 23, with low-price enhancement strategy, improved dual-low strategy, and high-price high-elasticity strategy recording returns of 0.0%, -0.7%, and -2.2% respectively, against a benchmark of -0.2% [2][3] - Year-to-date performance shows these strategies yielding 4.5%, 15.7%, and 24.6% respectively, with cumulative excess returns of -0.4%, 10.8%, and 19.7% [2][3] - The report notes a significant increase in solar and wind power installations, with solar power achieving a record monthly installation of 92.92 GW in May, contributing to a total of 1,084.45 GW installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 56.9% [6][7] - The coal price drop is expected to improve the market outlook for thermal power generation, suggesting a focus on companies with significant coal exposure and minimal reductions in long-term electricity prices for 2025 [9] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to enhance inclusivity and adaptability, allowing unprofitable companies to list under specific standards and introducing new measures to support technology firms [12][14] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The low-price enhancement strategy outperformed during the recent market adjustment, while the improved dual-low and high-price high-elasticity strategies still showed significant excess returns year-to-date [2][3] - The report provides a detailed list of holdings for each strategy, indicating a diversified approach across various sectors [3][6] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report emphasizes the robust growth in renewable energy installations, particularly solar and wind, which are expected to continue expanding due to favorable policies and market conditions [6][7] - The anticipated increase in renewable energy capacity aligns with national energy goals, suggesting a positive outlook for green energy investments [9] Group 3: Sci-Tech Innovation Board - The "1+6" policy is a significant reform aimed at revitalizing the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with measures designed to attract more technology companies and improve the listing process for startups [12][14] - The report notes the current trading activity and performance metrics of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a mixed market response but potential for future growth [12][13]

Computer Industry - The computer industry has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 since the beginning of 2025, driven by the Deepseek catalyst, with Q1 showing overall strength before a pullback in Q2 due to annual report season and tariff issues [2][3] - The second half of 2025 presents a good opportunity for investment in AI, as the current domestic AI investment shows a mismatch between short and long-term needs. The "new supply-side reform" is expected to create significant investment opportunities through consumption creation, investment quality improvement, and export upgrades [2][3] Mechanical Industry - The mechanical sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.04% since the beginning of 2025, with notable performance in wind power equipment, robotics, and lithium battery equipment. The first quarter of 2025 saw a marginal recovery in mechanical enterprise performance, although gross margins slightly declined [7][8] - The second half of 2025 is expected to focus on new investment opportunities in humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and controllable nuclear fusion, alongside a recovery in domestic demand and stable export performance in engineering machinery [7][10] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has seen a recovery in domestic travel and logistics demand since early 2025, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and supply-demand optimization. The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a supply gap, leading to improved profitability [12][13] - The logistics sector is experiencing unexpected growth in demand, with the introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles providing cost-reduction opportunities and reshaping the industry landscape [12][14] Defense Industry - The defense industry is experiencing a bottoming out of performance, with Q1 2025 revenue at 109.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%. However, the decline in net profit is expected to stabilize, with a focus on domestic production and military trade as key investment themes for the second half of 2025 [16][19] - Geopolitical tensions are driving demand for military trade, with expectations for China's global market share to increase significantly by 2030, creating substantial growth opportunities in the defense sector [17][19] Company Focus: Geokang Technology - Geokang Technology, formerly known as Geokang Instruments, is focusing on intelligent monitoring terminals and related products, with plans to enhance its core competitiveness through increased R&D investment and technological innovation [21][24] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from strong downstream demand in sectors such as water conservancy, energy, and transportation, with significant investments expected in these areas through 2025 [23][24]