Macro Economic Outlook - The report predicts a 5.1% growth in real GDP for 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.4%, 4.9%, and 4.7% respectively [4][5] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 5.0%, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of durable goods [4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 3.7%, while export growth is anticipated to be around 1.5% for the year [4][5] - CPI is expected to remain low with a year-on-year increase of approximately 0%, while PPI is forecasted to be -2.3% [5] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see a recovery in innovative drugs, with a focus on medical devices and services [10][12] - The report highlights a favorable environment for innovative drugs due to supportive policies and an expected increase in investment activity [11][12] - Medical device procurement data shows signs of recovery, indicating a release of pent-up demand [12] - The medical services sector is anticipated to experience growth due to nationwide payment reforms and signs of recovery in the ophthalmology field [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pharmaceutical consumption driven by domestic consumption stimulus policies [12][13] Integrated Circuit Industry (Ziguang Guowei) - Ziguang Guowei is positioned as a leading player in the integrated circuit industry, focusing on special integrated circuits and smart security chips [16][19] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the special integrated circuit sector, which is projected to see significant growth in the coming years [16][19] - The automotive electronics segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with the MCU market expected to grow significantly [17][19] - The company plans to initiate a share buyback program to enhance employee motivation and support sustainable development [18][19] Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector shows signs of month-on-month improvement in sales, with May 2025 seeing a 10.34% increase in sales area compared to April [22][25] - Despite a negative year-on-year growth of 2.90% in sales area for the first five months, the report indicates a potential stabilization in the housing market due to policy support [22][25] - Real estate development investment is projected to decline by 10.70% year-on-year, but monthly investment showed an 8.68% increase in May [23][25] - The report suggests that leading real estate companies with strong operational capabilities are likely to gain market share [25]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the home appliance sector, particularly in companies with stable performance and increasing dividend rates [8]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from long-term stability due to its essential nature and competitive advantages globally, despite facing short-term pressures from market competition and external factors like tariffs [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of government subsidy policies, particularly the "old-for-new" program, which is anticipated to continue supporting consumer demand in 2024 and 2025 [7][8]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the white goods sector, emphasizing the significance of companies' performance stability and dividend yield in the current low-risk interest rate environment [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The home appliance sector has outperformed the market since 2023, with the SW home appliance index showing increases of 3.8% in 2023, 25.4% in 2024, and 1.93% in 2025 YTD [7][12]. - The sector's performance is attributed to the essential nature of large appliances and the benefits from government subsidy policies [7][12]. 2. Domestic Sales Supported by Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated the market, with retail sales expected to grow significantly due to government support [42][44]. - The retail market for home appliances is projected to reach CNY 1,030.7 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [42]. 3. Overseas Market Dynamics - The report notes a shift in the global supply chain, with Chinese home appliance companies expected to benefit from increased order concentration in the U.S. market by 2026 [7][8]. - Exports of home appliances are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2023 and 14.1% in 2024, with significant increases in air conditioning exports [7][8]. 4. White Goods Market Insights - The air conditioning market is expected to remain strong in 2024, driven by government subsidies, although competition in the online market is intensifying [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades in the refrigerator and washing machine segments, which are expected to maintain stable sales due to their essential nature [7][8]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Visual, and Gree Electric, focusing on their stable earnings and high dividend yields [8]. - The black goods sector presents opportunities due to improved global competitiveness, while the cleaning appliance segment is highlighted for its growth potential following industry consolidation [7][8].

行业周报 · 通信行业 算力筑基,光网跃迁 2025年06月16日 一周通信板块指数下跌,智能卡、光器件等子板块相关标的表现较好。本 周上证指数跌幅为0.25%;深证成指跌幅为0.60%;创业板指数涨幅为0.22%; 一级行业指数中,通信板块跌幅为 0.78%。根据我们对于通信行业公司划分子 板块数据,智能卡、光器件等子板块相关标的表现较好,板块涨幅分别为 3.88%、3.51%。通信板块个股中,上涨、维持和下跌的个股占比分别为 24.62%、1.54%和 73.84%。本周通信行业重点事件中,全球数据中心加速规 模化与高密度化发展,光通信因 AI 算力需求推动 800G/1.6T 光模块爆发,同 时空芯光纤技术突破加速但产业化仍面临挑战。 5G 与 AI 业务相关度高,盈利能力企稳回升,典型 ETF 基金介绍。中证 ● 5G 通信主题指数成分股中有约 70%的标的业务与 5G 相关、约 76%的标的业 务与 AI 相关,5G 相关度主要分布于[80%,100%]的区间,AI 相关度主要分布 于[0%,20%]的区间。中证 5G 通信主题指数成分股 2024 年合计实现营业收入 17,885.12 亿/+16 ...

美股回落,国际油价收涨超 4%，白银再破历 史高位 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 机械：核电人形机器人专题报告——工业应用场景巡礼。国内核电人形机器人 ● 产业发展提速:自2024年3月起,国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心联合上 海电气中央研究院,针对核电行业极端环境需求,开展了大量技术攻关与联合 实验,成功部署首款针对核电产业日常生产的人形机器人并进驻核电场景训练 场,相关项目也顺利完成阶段性验收。同时,国家和上海、杭州、北京、深圳 等地纷纷出台人形机器人相关政策,从技术研发、应用推广等多方面给予支持, 为人形机器人深度融入核电产业、推动核电智能化发展奠定了坚实基础。核电 领域作为危险、重复、繁重的工业应用场景,有望率先实现具身智能赋能与落 地。 滑费:5月社零提速彰显国补刺激、新消费活跃。5月社零增长提速，受益于 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 17 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 5 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:政策效果充分释放,经济表现好于预期--5 月经济数据解读。5 月经 济保持良好增长态势,供需两端均有不俗表现。从供给端出发,5月工业增加 值同比增长 5.8%,服务生产指数 6.2%,生产法拟合的 5 月 当月 GDP 增速约 为 5.6%(前值 5.6%)。需求方面,消费表现好于投资,消费品以旧换新政策 效果充分释放,5月社会消费品零售总额同比+6.4%,创24年以来增速新高。 投资结构保持稳定,各分项增速均出现不同程度的回落,其中,制造业投资 +8.5%(前值 8.8%)，关税冲击对外向型企业资本开支意愿形成一定抑制; 基建投资+5.6%(前值 5.8%）、传统基建增长乏力,后续等待政策性金融工 具发力;地产投资-10.7%（前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically focusing on humanoid robots in the nuclear power sector [4]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China's nuclear power sector is accelerating, with significant advancements in technology and applications, supported by national and local policies [8][11]. - Humanoid robots are designed to operate in extreme environments typical of nuclear power plants, enhancing operational efficiency and safety [25][26]. - The investment suggestion emphasizes focusing on companies actively engaged in the nuclear power humanoid robot sector, such as Jingye Intelligent, Shanghai Electric, Shenhao Technology, Yijiahe, and others [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Development Acceleration of Humanoid Robots in Nuclear Power - The establishment of innovation centers and successful deployment of humanoid robots in nuclear settings mark significant milestones in the industry [11][12]. - The first humanoid robot for daily operations in nuclear power was successfully deployed, indicating a shift from theoretical exploration to practical application [11]. 2. Basic Information and Classification of Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robots are characterized by their ability to withstand high radiation and operate autonomously in hazardous environments, significantly improving safety and efficiency in nuclear operations [25][26]. - The classification of nuclear robots includes humanoid and non-humanoid types, with humanoid robots offering greater flexibility and capability in complex tasks [29][30]. 3. Industry Chain of Nuclear Robots - The industry chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers, midstream production and assembly, and downstream application in various nuclear power operations [53][54]. - The demand for humanoid robots spans multiple applications, including safety inspections, maintenance, and emergency response, enhancing overall operational efficiency [53]. 4. Key Companies in the Sector - Jingye Intelligent is recognized as a leader in nuclear industrial robotics, focusing on spent fuel processing and developing advanced robotic solutions [8]. - Shanghai Electric has initiated a humanoid robot training center, enhancing the development of industrial-grade humanoid robots [8]. - Shenhao Technology and Yijiahe are also making strides in the nuclear robotics field, collaborating to develop intelligent inspection robots [8]. 5. Future Development Potential - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to become integral to the nuclear power industry, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies from various regions [16][48]. - The collaboration among industry players and research institutions is expected to foster innovation and accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots in nuclear applications [48].

北交所日报 北交所日报(2025.06.16) 2025 年 06 月 16 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎: 010-8092-7663 @:fanxiangxiang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 2025-06-16 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 1. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 2. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 3. 【中国银河证券】Deepseek 冲击波:北交所_ 中小企业的智能化赋能 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 6 月 16 日, 北证 50 涨跌幅为+1.84%, 收于 1408.15 点。北证 50 指数 ● 开盘点位为 1373.30 点，最高点位达 1408.15 点，最低点位为 1371.90 点。 同日, 上证指数收于 3388.73 点, 涨跌幅为+0.35%; 沪深 ...

行业点评报告·消费行业 5 月社零提速彰显国补刺激、新消费活跃 2025年6月16日 核心观点 当前情况下,市场担心国家补贴后续的连续性。相比而言,新消费展现出的高 增长更受人关注。 分析师 何伟 ☑: hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 陈柏儒 極：chenbairu_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521080001 顾熹闽 网：guximin_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 谢芝优 网: xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 郝帅 网: haoshuai@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524040001 刘光意 网: liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 张迪 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 刘来珍： ...

行业点评报告 · 化工行业 中东地缘冲突升级,原油风险溢价回升 核心观点 0 关注实质性供应损失,石油平衡表面临冲击。我们认为,当前 Brent73 美 元/桶的油价中包含了市场对地缘扰动不确定性的担忧,但并未完全考虑未来 原油市场若出现实质性中断的情况。考虑到地缘局势演变具有较大的不确定 性,分情况来看:1)若全球石油供应未出现损失。下半年石油市场仍维持累 库预期,油价或将冲高回落。重点关注美国页岩油成本对油价的支撑,预期 2025 年下半年 Brent 油价运行区间 60-70 美元/桶。2）若伊朗石油对外供应 断崖式下跌。下半年石油市场累库预期有望被扭转,短期的供应缺口或提振 Brent 原油价格中枢至 80 美元/桶,随着后续 OPEC 和美国页岩油逐步增产 弥补供应缺口,油价或逐步回落。3)若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。下半年石油市 场累库预期有望被扭转,供应缺口或致使 Brent 原油价格短期挑战 100美元/ 桶,后续油价走势与霍尔木兹海峡何时恢复正常通行、OPEC 部分国家增产、 美国页岩油增产节奏等息息相关。 2025年6月16日 化工行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 霍启迪 ☎：010-8092-76 ...

宏观研究报告 —5 月经济数据解读 2025 年 6 月 16 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☎：010-8092-7606 極zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 研究助理:铁伟奥 www.chinastock.com.cn 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎： 010-8092-7780 网: lvlei _yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码： S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证券研究报告 宏观研究报告 中国银河证券|CGS 台。6 月 14 日李强总理主持国常会时,提出要构建房地产发展新模式,更大 力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 工业:工业增加值边际放缓。5月份,工业增加值从上月 6.1%下降到 5.8%, ● 边际增速连续两个月放缓,不过依然高于去年同期 5.6%的基数,凸显了工业 经济的韧性。一方面,进入五月日内瓦谈判让贸易商松了口气,外需并不 ...