Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company Yongding Co., Ltd. (600105.SH) [2] Core Views - Yongding Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from the integration of optical and electronic technologies, with significant growth potential in laser chip and high-temperature superconducting materials [5][8] - The company has diversified its operations beyond cable manufacturing to include automotive wiring harnesses, optical communication, power engineering, superconductors, and big data services, establishing itself as a comprehensive solution provider [5][8] - The report highlights the robust growth in the optical module industry and the potential for domestic superconductors to exceed 10 billion in market size [5][25] Summary by Sections Section 1: Development and Growth - Yongding Co., Ltd. has evolved from a single cable manufacturer to a multi-industry player, with projected revenue contributions from automotive wiring harnesses (29.3%), optical communication (27.1%), and power engineering (25.3%) in 2024 [5][8] - The company is focusing on the full industrial chain of optical communication, with significant investments in laser chips and superconducting materials [5][8] Section 2: Optical Module Industry - The optical module market is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 22% from 2024 to 2029, with domestic suppliers increasing their market share [51] - Major global tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is expected to drive demand for optical modules [49][51] Section 3: Laser Chip and Superconducting Material Expansion - Yongding Co., Ltd. is set to establish a domestic IDM laser chip factory, with an expected annual production capacity of 15 million photonic integrated chips [5][8] - The company plans to expand its production capacity for high-temperature superconducting materials to 20,000 km within the next 2-3 years [5][8] Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 360.05 million, 140.73 million, and 209.56 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.25, 0.10, and 0.14 yuan [5][8] - The report emphasizes the company's strong financial performance and growth trajectory, driven by its diversified business model [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a projected performance in line with the benchmark index [11]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 1,817.02 million yuan in 2024 to 3,500 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.62% in the final year [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 202.17 million yuan in 2024 to 493.59 million yuan in 2027, with a notable profit growth rate of 47.50% in 2027 [5][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 34.20% in 2024 to 37.14% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,817.02 million yuan in 2024 to 3,500 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 15.57%, 21.08%, 18.18%, and 34.62% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 202.17 million yuan in 2024 to 493.59 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -20.91%, 37.45%, 20.42%, and 47.50% respectively [5][7]. Key Financial Ratios - The projected diluted EPS is expected to rise from 0.47 yuan in 2024 to 1.15 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [5][7]. - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 56.83 in 2024 to 23.28 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [5][7]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are expected to grow from 6,414.67 million yuan in 2024 to 7,755.92 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a healthy asset growth trajectory [6]. - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 254.59 million yuan in 2024 to 572.95 million yuan in 2027, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [6].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In July, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%[2] - The average subway passenger volume in the first week of August increased by 0.48% year-on-year but decreased by 3.65% month-on-month[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1982.2 in the first week of August, up 8.5% month-on-month and 14.9% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of August 9, the average operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.24 percentage points to 83.63%[2] - The average operating rate of rebar was 44.12%, up 0.84 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The average daily coal consumption of power plants in July was 5.305 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] Price Performance - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.53% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of key monitored vegetables increased by 3.21%[2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.87% as of August 7, while the prices of coking coal, iron ore, and rebar increased by 8.80%, 2.62%, and 0.38% respectively[2] International Macro - Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a slight decline in demand[3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased to 226,000 but did not reach levels that would significantly raise the unemployment rate[3] - The Eurozone services PMI remained stable at 51.0, with Germany at 50.6 and France at 48.5[3] Risks - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, and unexpected geopolitical changes[3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.43%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.17%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.03% during the week from August 4 to August 8 [2][4]. - All 11 sectors in the Hong Kong stock market experienced gains, with materials, information technology, and energy sectors leading the way, increasing by 9.82%, 3.21%, and 3.13% respectively [5][10]. - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 226.55 billion, a decrease of HKD 56.19 billion from the previous week, while the average short-selling amount was HKD 27.72 billion, down by HKD 3.11 billion [12][18]. Group 2 - As of August 8, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 11.33 times and 1.18 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.84% and 1.87% from the previous week, placing them at the 84% and 83% percentile levels since 2019 [18][20]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.56%, which is at the 8% percentile level since 2010, while the risk premium relative to the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 7.14%, at the 61% percentile level since 2010 [20][25]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from favorable policies or have shown better-than-expected mid-year performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for several key companies in the construction sector, including China State Construction (601668.SH), China Railway (601390.SH), China Railway Construction (601186.SH), China Communications Construction (601800.SH), and Anhui Construction (600502.SH) [5][6]. Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to benefit from strong policy support and a robust dividend mechanism, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns [9][12]. - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, serving as a cornerstone for economic stability, with a high overall dividend yield in the sector [9][17]. - The report highlights significant disparities in dividend yields among leading companies in the real estate and decoration sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Infrastructure as a Cornerstone for Growth - Policies are increasingly encouraging listed companies to enhance their dividend mechanisms, with recent regulatory changes promoting cash dividends [12][13]. - Infrastructure investment growth remains strong, with broad infrastructure investment growth at 8.9% and narrow infrastructure investment growth at 4.6% in the first half of 2025 [17][18]. 2. Divergence in Dividend Yields in Real Estate and Decoration - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with notable differences in dividend yields among leading firms [9][12]. - China State Construction and Shaanxi Construction have dividend yields of 4.80% and 3.61%, respectively, while decoration firms like Jianghe Group and Zhengzhong Design show higher yields of 7.00% and 3.45% [9][12]. 3. High Dividend Ratios in Engineering Consulting - Engineering consulting firms exhibit high dividend ratios, with companies like Metro Design and Design Institute showing yields of 3.26% and 3.24% [9][12]. 4. High Dividend Ratios in Steel Structure, International Engineering, and Chemical Engineering - Companies in these sectors, such as Yaxiang Integration and China National Chemical, report high dividend yields, indicating strong financial health and shareholder returns [9][12]. 5. Recommendations for High Dividend and High Yield Stocks - The report recommends several companies with strong dividend yields, including Anhui Construction (5.54%), Sichuan Road and Bridge (4.98%), and Tunnel Shares (4.84%) [9][20][21].

Macro Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - In July, China's export value was 321.78 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, while imports were 223.54 billion USD, growing by 4.1% [2][3] - The trade surplus in July was 98.2 billion USD, down from 114.8 billion USD in the previous month [2] Export and Import Trends - Export growth is supported by global economic resilience and increased export and transshipment activities, with July's global manufacturing PMI at 49.7% [3] - The export growth to the US continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in July [4] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU showed stability, with ASEAN exports maintaining a growth rate of 16.6% [4] Company Insights: Xtep International (1368.HK) - Xtep focuses on a diversified brand matrix covering both mass and professional sports markets, positioning itself as a leading running shoe brand in China [1][13] - The company reported a revenue of 13.577 billion yuan in 2024, with an adjusted year-on-year growth of 6.5% and a net profit of 1.238 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.23% [13] - Xtep's main brand is experiencing steady growth, supported by increased R&D investment, which has a compound growth rate of 13.96% [13] Company Insights: Zhaozhao Point Glue (873726) - Zhaozhao Point Glue specializes in intelligent dispensing equipment, breaking the foreign monopoly in the high-end dispensing market [21][23] - The company has a comprehensive intellectual property system covering core components, equipment, and application processes, which is expected to optimize its product structure as it deepens customer cooperation [24] - The domestic market has seen a shift towards replacing mid-to-low-end products, with significant potential for high-end product substitution in the future [23] Company Insights: Yingzi Network (688475) - Yingzi Network reported a revenue of 2.827 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [16][17] - The company’s smart home business is a key growth driver, with smart entry business revenue growing by 32.99% [17] - The company has launched new AI products and expanded its market presence, with a focus on enhancing brand influence and competitiveness [17][19] Summary of Key Metrics - The overall import and export environment is showing signs of pressure, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations and tariff uncertainties [7] - The performance of specific companies like Xtep and Yingzi Network indicates a positive growth trajectory despite broader economic challenges [13][17] - Zhaozhao Point Glue's focus on high-end dispensing technology positions it well for future growth in a competitive market [21][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the bond market oscillated weakly due to factors such as the central bank's protection of the capital market, short - term settlement of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the "anti - involution" driving the equity and commodity markets. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively [1][8]. - In August, from the fundamental perspective, focus on the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI in domestic and external demand, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the improvement of the prosperity index. Also, observe the possible disturbances of the improvement of key data such as real estate on the fundamentals and expectations [2]. - In terms of supply, the single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds are expected to drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August may be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2]. - Regarding the capital market, there may be phased fluctuations due to the end of the month and the peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturities. After entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2]. - From the policy perspective, the Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - In terms of institutional behavior, institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened Bearishly - In July, affected by multiple factors, the bond market oscillated weakly. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively. The term spread widened by 2BP to 32BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds steepened bearishly in July, with the medium - and long - end yields generally rising more. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds generally increased [9]. - Overseas, US inflation continued to rise slightly, labor data improved, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted further [10]. 2. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: The Capital Market is Likely to Return to Normal, and Supply will Reach a Peak in the Second Half of the Year - **Fundamentals**: For the July macro - data to be released, pay attention to the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI, and the impact of real estate data improvement on fundamentals and expectations [2][28]. - **Supply**: The single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds will drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2][41]. - **Capital Market**: There may be phased fluctuations at the end of the month, but after entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2][48]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds. The adjustment of government bond VAT may also affect institutional allocation logic [3][68]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: Focus on the Balance between Stocks and Bonds, the Bond Market will Oscillate Downward, and Pay Attention to Trading Opportunities - In August, the main points of concern are the return of the capital market to a loose state under the central bank's protection, the shift from the stock - bond seesaw to the balance between stocks and bonds, the peak supply of government bonds due to the acceleration of special bond issuance, and the short - term impact of the change in government bond VAT [74]. - In terms of interest rates, the bond market's capital market in August is likely to return to a stable state under the central bank's protection. The bond market is still in a favorable environment, but the implementation of broad - based monetary policies needs to be awaited. The subsequent market is likely to evolve from the stock - bond seesaw to a balanced state. Short - term bond interest rates may decline marginally. Strategies include maintaining an appropriate duration, focusing on band trading, paying attention to the trading value of old bonds and the allocation value of new bonds, taking profits when yields are low, and increasing allocations when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.75% [76]. 3. Important Economic Calendar for August - The table provides the expected release dates and market expectations of various economic indicators in July and August, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, etc. [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the net financing scale of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the primary market was negative, with the issuance mainly being unrated bonds. The total issuance scale increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year, mainly due to Shimao Group Holdings Co., Ltd. issuing new bonds for debt restructuring. Most of the main sectors had positive net financing, with real - estate US dollar bonds being the main force in issuance [1][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory (1) 7月中资美元债净融资规模为负，发行以无评级为主 - As of July 31, 2025, 85 new Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were issued in the primary market, mainly real - estate US dollar bonds, with a total issuance scale of $19.387 billion, a 55% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year increase. The average issuance coupon rate was 3.79%. 98 bonds matured, with a maturity scale of $20.017 billion. The net financing scale for the month was - $629 million. The significant increase in issuance scale was mainly due to Shimao Group issuing $11.734 billion in new bonds for debt restructuring [1][7]. - In terms of different ratings, 2 investment - grade bonds were newly issued, with a scale of $744 million; 13 matured, with a scale of $5.55 billion, and the net financing scale was - $4.806 billion. No high - yield bonds were newly issued, 5 matured, with a scale of $1.6 billion, and the net financing scale was - $1.6 billion. 83 unrated bonds were newly issued, with a scale of $18.643 billion; 80 matured, with a scale of $12.867 billion, and the net financing scale was $5.777 billion [2][12][14]. (2) 主要板块净融资规模多数为正，地产美元债为发行主力 - Real - estate US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 6 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $11.734 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 2.17%. All were new bonds issued by Shimao Group for debt restructuring. 11 bonds matured, with a scale of $4.419 billion. The net financing scale for the month was $7.314 billion, and no material defaults occurred [3][18]. - Financial US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 55 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $3.789 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 2.98%. 55 bonds matured, with a scale of $5.669 billion. The net financing scale for the month was - $1.88 billion, and no material defaults occurred [3][27]. - Urban investment US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 12 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $1.725 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 5.74%. 12 bonds matured, with a scale of $1.198 billion. The net financing scale for the month was $527 million, and no material defaults occurred [3][34].

出口延续强韧性,进口增长超预期 -7 月进出口数据解读 2025 年 8 月 7 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 8 月 7 日海关总署公布 7 月进出口数据: 7 月我国出口商品 3217.8 亿美元, 0 同比增速为 7.2%(前值 5.9%)，过去十年出口增速同期均值为 3.6%。进口 2235.4 亿美元,增速 4.1%(前值 1.1%),过去十年进口增速同期均值为 0.6%。 贸易顺差 982 亿美元（前值 1148 亿美元）。 7 月出口增速延续小幅回升，其一全球经济景气度仍具韧性，其二抢出口 0 和转口贸易仍有所支撑:一是全球制造业 PMI 仍具韧性。7月 IMF 发布最 新全球经济展望,预计 2025 年和 2026 年的全球经济增速将分别为 3.0%和 3.1%,较今年 4 月预测值分别上调 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。7 月全球制造业 PMI 为 49.7%(前值 50.4%),欧英越印墨等均有不同幅度上行,其中越南 PMI 上行 3.5 个百分点，墨西哥 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the core viewpoint that the financial system supporting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry is expected to mature by 2027, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of financial services and ensuring the effective satisfaction of credit demand from manufacturing enterprises [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of various financial tools such as loans, bonds, equity, and insurance working in synergy to support the manufacturing sector [2][3] - It identifies six key highlights of the policy, including the emphasis on "new industrialization," the collaborative effort of financial tools, and the focus on long-term financing for manufacturing [2] Manufacturing and Industry Focus - The report suggests paying attention to key industries such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, industrial software, and advanced materials, which are expected to benefit from financial support for "supplementing and extending" investments [3] - It emphasizes the importance of hard technology and specialized small and medium enterprises, advocating for early-stage financing and long-term investment in sectors like new-generation information technology and high-end equipment [3] - The report also highlights the role of green finance in promoting low-carbon transitions in manufacturing, recommending investments in environmental protection and resource utilization [3] Digital Economy and Regional Development - The report discusses the need for financial institutions to optimize resource allocation to support industrial transfers to less developed regions, focusing on advanced manufacturing clusters and innovative industry clusters [4] - It highlights the importance of preventing "involution" in competition, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, to promote high-quality development [4] Public Utilities and Renewable Energy - The report notes a significant decline in new installations for wind and solar energy in June, with expectations for substantial growth in renewable energy installations in the coming years [18][19] - It mentions the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the hydropower industry [19] - The report indicates that the demand for green electricity is becoming clearer, with new policies enhancing the consumption responsibility for renewable energy [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the thermal power sector that have a large market coal exposure and are less affected by coal price fluctuations [22] - It suggests that the water and nuclear power sectors have significant investment value due to low interest rates [22] - The report encourages capturing opportunities in the renewable energy sector, supported by ongoing reforms and policies promoting green electricity consumption [22]