Investment Rating - The public utility industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating [1] Core Insights - The growth rate of electricity consumption is accelerating, with significant regional differentiation in the results of competitive bidding for mechanism electricity prices [1] - The thermal power generation has shifted from decline to growth, with an increase in electricity consumption [6] - The competitive bidding results for mechanism electricity prices show notable regional disparities, with some areas experiencing price changes ranging from -90% to +63% [6] Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights the acceleration in electricity consumption growth and the regional differences in electricity pricing mechanisms [1][9] Industry Data - The report provides data on carbon trading market conditions, indicating a price of 70.14 and a growth of 14.80% [19] - It also includes electricity industry data showing a 10.4% increase in electricity consumption in October 2025, with specific figures for various categories [22] Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - The report suggests investment opportunities based on the observed trends in electricity consumption and pricing mechanisms [6][7]

行业月报 ·公用事业行业 用电量增速加快，各地机制电价竞价结果分化明显 ǒǒ ➂≈㬲屄≢⛭㐶㛙⢈ 2025 11 30 核心观点 公用事业行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 橧愰⛤ 010 -80927673 taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130522030001 㲪㓔➗ 010 -80927656 liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130523070002 䰩争⛮䠜睵湚㥼 mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025 11 28 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12/2 2025/1/2 2025/2/2 2025/3/2 2025/4/2 2025/5/2 2025/6/2 2025/7/2 2025/8/2 2025/9/2 2025/10/2 2025/11/2 SW 300 相关研究 1. _Q3 2._Q3 3._ 7 www.chinastock.com.cn z 火电电量由降转增，用电量增速加快。 10 8002 7.9% 9 6.4pct 10 +7.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][5] Core Insights - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of up to 66.44 million H shares, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [5] - The issuance is projected to have a manageable dilution effect on earnings per share (EPS), estimated at around 11% post-issuance, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 26X for 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation [5] - The funds raised from the H share issuance will be utilized for enhancing overseas market supply chain infrastructure, brand promotion, and exploring investment opportunities in foreign markets [5] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 15,839 million yuan in 2024 to 32,658 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.67% [2][7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,327 million yuan in 2024 to 7,096 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 22.90% [2][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 45%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][7] Market Position and Growth Potential - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned to benefit from the expanding functional beverage market in China, with significant growth potential compared to competitors like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong [5] - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and expanding into international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, with plans to establish a presence in the U.S. and Middle East in the long term [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory dynamics and sales performance as the new fiscal year begins, particularly around the Chinese New Year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by deepening chip layouts, which will open up high growth potential for performance [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 1,592 million, with a decline to 1,327 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1,738 million in 2026 and reaching 2,380 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.94% from 2025 to 2027 [2][7]. - The report highlights a strong commitment to performance, with expected EPS growth from 0.07 in 2025 to 0.35 in 2027, indicating a robust recovery and profitability trajectory [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a decline of 16.61% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 30.93% in 2026 and 36.94% in 2027 [2][7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from 100 million in 2025 to 325 million in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit margin from 3.9% in 2025 to 12.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [7]. Market Performance - The industry is projected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a relative performance graph indicating a positive trend [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic acquisitions and collaborations within the industry to enhance competitive positioning and market share [6]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts express confidence in the industry's growth potential, citing strong R&D capabilities and synergies with core business operations as key drivers for future success [6][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market fluctuated more significantly during the policy window period, with the overall yield oscillating upward and the curve slightly steepening. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. As of November 28, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5BP to 1.84%, and the 1-year Treasury yield went up 2BP to close at 1.4%, with the term spread widening by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - In December, attention should be paid to the statements of key central meetings, the subsequent operation scale of the central bank's restarted Treasury bond trading, the actual implementation of the public offering fee new regulations, and the marginal constraints of the "ceiling and floor" state of the 10-year bond on the current market pricing of 1.85%. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared. It is recommended to seize the current key position with high cost - effectiveness [4][5][66]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Slightly Steepened - In November, affected by factors such as capital - side fluctuations, the continued play of the stock - bond seesaw effect, and repeated policy expectations, the bond market's volatility intensified. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. The term spread widened by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - Different maturities of the Treasury yield curve showed structural differentiation, with the ultra - short and medium - long - term yields rising more significantly. The implied tax rate of policy - bank bonds generally rebounded [9]. - Overseas, the market expected that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December was 15.3%, while the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut rose to around 85%. As of November 28, compared with the end of October, the US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.02%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion narrowed by 14BP to around 218BP [10]. - Throughout November, the bond market showed different trends in each week. The first week saw an oscillating upward trend in yields; the second week presented a narrow - range consolidation pattern; the third week showed a differentiation between short - and long - term yields; and the fourth week witnessed a steep upward shift in yields [16][19][22]. II. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Statements of Key Central Meetings in December and Whether Institutions Will Make a Pre - emptive Move at the Year - End - **Fundamentals**: Continue to focus on the impact of inflation improvement, the resilience of exports under high - base effects, the improvement of PMI sentiment, the possible warming of real - estate supply and demand data, and the possible improvement of the shortfall in social financing [2][23]. - **Supply Side**: It is expected that the net supply of government bonds in December will be around 650 billion yuan, basically falling back to a relatively low level within the year. The use of the remaining quota will drive the continued issuance of special bonds [2][42]. - **Funding Side**: Although the scale of government bond issuance will fall to a low level within the year, the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit next month may put pressure on the liquidity of the banking system. However, the central bank's attitude of care is clear, and it is expected that the funding side will be generally balanced and loose [2][46]. - **Policy Side**: Focus on the two major economic meetings in December. It is expected that there will be updates on policies related to broad - money, active fiscal policies, consumption, real estate, and debt resolution. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased [3][56]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In November, various institutions generally increased their holdings, with the allocation - oriented investors increasing their positions while the trading - oriented investors reducing their scale. In December, pay attention to the possible marginal redemptions of wealth management products after the formal implementation of the public offering sales fee new regulations, the trading games of public funds and other trading - oriented investors, the possible increase in holdings by wealth management products and rural commercial banks in the banking system, and the allocation layout of insurance - based allocation - oriented investors [3][59][60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market Will Be Mainly Volatile, and Seize the Allocation Cost - Effectiveness at the Short - Term Ceiling of 1.85% - Consider multiple aspects such as fundamentals, supply, funding, policies, and institutional behavior. In December, the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile. The allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity [66][67][68]. III. Important Economic Calendar for December The report lists important economic indicators to be announced in December and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, CPI, PPI, and other data [70].

Core Insights - The ESG strategies experienced a pullback this week, with the ESG screening strategy and the ESG sentiment integration strategy both showing negative performance relative to the benchmark [1][5][9]. ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, showed a decline of 0.80% as of November 28, 2025, compared to a 1.64% increase in the CSI 300 benchmark, resulting in an excess return of -2.44% [5][8]. - Over the last month, the total return was -0.4%, with a relative total return of 2%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -3%. The Sharpe ratio was -0.97 [5][8]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: 0% (last month), -1% (last 3 months), 5% (last 6 months), 12% (last year), 5% (year-to-date), 75% (since inception) [8]. - Relative Total Return: 2% (last month), -2% (last 3 months), -13% (last 6 months), -3% (last year), -10% (year-to-date), 59% (since inception) [8]. - Maximum Drawdown: -3% (last month), -3% (last 3 months), -4% (last 6 months), -8% (last year), -7% (year-to-date), -8% (since inception) [8]. ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, based on the report published on February 28, 2025, declined by 0.88% as of November 28, 2025, compared to the CSI 300 benchmark's 1.64% increase, leading to an excess return of -2.52% [9][12]. - The total return for the last month was 1%, with a relative total return of 3%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -1%. The Sharpe ratio was 1.79 [9][12]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: 1% (last month), 1% (last 3 months), 5% (last 6 months), 16% (last year), 8% (year-to-date), 123% (since inception) [12]. - Relative Total Return: 3% (last month), 1% (last 3 months), -13% (last 6 months), 1% (last year), -7% (year-to-date), 106% (since inception) [12]. - Maximum Drawdown: -1% (last month), -4% (last 3 months), -6% (last 6 months), -6% (last year), -6% (year-to-date), -10% (since inception) [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power sector, including 大唐发电, 建投能源, 川投能源, 长江电力, and 中国广核, all of which are recommended for investment [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the power sector is entering a new phase of development, with fire power generation expected to benefit from capacity pricing and auxiliary services, leading to improved profitability and stability [4][5]. - Hydropower is projected to see growth driven by decreasing financial costs and increased installed capacity, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - Nuclear power is entering a phase of active development, with a significant increase in approved and under-construction capacity expected in the coming years [4]. - The renewable energy sector faces challenges with pricing pressures but has potential for growth through integration with green hydrogen and other technologies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The public utility sector index increased by 4.9% from January to October 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 16.0% [11]. - Fire power generation saw a profit increase of 16.8%, while nuclear and wind power faced profit declines of 12.4% and 16.4%, respectively [21]. 2. Fire Power - Fire power generation is transitioning to a more stable and regulated model, with expected capacity growth and improved profitability due to new pricing mechanisms [25]. - The average utilization hours for fire power are projected to decrease to around 3500 hours by 2030, reflecting a shift in operational dynamics [30]. 3. Hydropower - Hydropower generation is expected to benefit from improved water conditions and financial efficiencies, with long-term growth potential [4]. - The report highlights that financial costs are decreasing, and depreciation periods are expiring, contributing to the sector's attractiveness [4]. 4. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is set for significant growth, with a focus on the approval of new units and advancements in fourth-generation technology [4]. - The report notes that the approved capacity for nuclear power is expected to exceed operational capacity by 107% in the coming years [4]. 5. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector is facing challenges with pricing, as competitive pricing mechanisms are being introduced, potentially impacting profitability [5]. - The report suggests that integrating renewable energy with technologies like green hydrogen could open new growth avenues [5]. 6. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cost advantages in the renewable energy sector, such as 龙源电力 and 三峡能源 [5]. - It also suggests that the investment strategy should consider the stability of fire power profitability and the attractive dividend yields of hydropower companies in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery with metro passenger volume increasing by 4.7% year-on-year as of November 28[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in November reached 1.384 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2184.0, up 9.5% month-on-month and 42.9% year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - National daily coal consumption in power plants decreased by 2.68% year-on-year to 4.72 million tons as of November 29[2] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces recorded 82.30%, down 1.55 percentage points month-on-month[2] - Cement dispatch rate was 33.44%, down 4.27 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting weak construction activity[2] Price Performance - Pork prices fell by 0.26% week-on-week, while vegetable prices increased by 1.23%[2] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.84% and Brent crude by 1.02% as of November 29, indicating volatility in oil prices[2] - The average wholesale price of apples increased by 2.14%, driven by reduced production and quality issues[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Special new bonds issued totaled 1.35 trillion yuan, with a significant acceleration in issuance[2] - MLF net injection reached 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of net MLF injections[2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the 30-year yield at 2.1851%[2] Overseas Macro - US economic activity shows signs of marginal cooling, with retail sales increasing only 0.2% in September[3] - Ongoing US-Russia peace negotiations face significant unresolved issues, maintaining high uncertainty in the conflict[3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, indicating a return to low levels, but continued claims remain high at 1.96 million[3]

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions[1] - The production index rose to 50% from 49.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.2% from 48.8%[2] - The new export orders index improved significantly by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, suggesting a recovery in external demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.2%[3] - The inventory index for finished products decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating a passive destocking trend among enterprises[4] - Raw material inventory remained stable at 47.3%, while procurement volume increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction industry index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, driven by year-end project completions[6] - The service industry index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 59.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline in consumer-related services[6] - Significant increases in export orders were noted in textiles, non-metallic minerals, general equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals[2]

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - Profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 is 1.9%, down from 3.2% in the previous period[1] - The main reasons for the narrowing profit growth are the weakening low base effect and declining production[1] - Industrial production in October 2025 decreased by 4.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price and Profit Margin Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight improvement in October 2025, increasing by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.1% in the previous month[1] - Profit margins slightly decreased to 5.25% from 5.26% in the previous month[1] - Mining industry profit margins improved slightly, while manufacturing and utility sectors saw a decline compared to September[1] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Weak demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.82% in October 2025[1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.3% in October 2025, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Implications - Future profit trends are expected to stabilize after short-term fluctuations, supported by domestic demand expansion policies[2] - External demand and geopolitical risks will also influence future profit trajectories[2] - Equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors remain the main drivers of profit growth[1]