Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a marginal recovery in medium to long-term loans, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy measures being released [1] - Social financing (社融) has shown a year-on-year decrease, with a month-on-month decline in growth rate. In December, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan [5] - The growth of RMB loans and corporate bonds has made a significant positive contribution to social financing increment, with RMB loans increasing by 975.7 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 135.5 billion yuan [5] - Corporate loans have shown a notable increase, with a total increase of 1.1 trillion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion yuan, indicating a marginal recovery in financing demand from the real economy [5] - The M2 growth rate has risen, with M1 and M2 increasing by 3.8% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The report suggests that the government bond's contribution to social financing has weakened towards the end of the year, while RMB credit shows signs of marginal improvement, primarily supported by corporate loans [5] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, the total social financing stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2 percentage points [5] - The structure of corporate loans has improved, with medium to long-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan and short-term loans by 370 billion yuan [5] Loan Data - As of the end of December, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 6.4% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - The demand for loans from the household sector remains weak, with a decrease of 916 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion yuan [5] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the continued attractiveness of the banking sector's dividend value, recommending specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [5]

Financial Data Insights - In December 2025, M1 growth rate was 3.8%, while M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%[2] - The significant rise in M2 was primarily driven by a substantial reduction in non-bank deposits[11] - The overall social financing growth rate declined, mainly due to government bond financing[13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank introduced eight monetary policy measures focusing on structural tools to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and micro enterprises[33] - A 50 basis point (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut is expected in the first quarter of 2026, while comprehensive interest rate cuts will require further observation[35] - The central bank emphasized that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit "two-way fluctuations and maintain flexibility" with expectations of a gradual appreciation towards 6.9 by the end of 2026[34] Investment Implications - Investment in the Chinese stock market is anticipated to yield excess returns, particularly during the "spring rally" investment opportunity[36] - Bond market dynamics are expected to oscillate between upward and downward pressures, with yields projected between 1.6% and 1.9%[36] - Structural opportunities in commodities are identified as certain, indicating potential for investment[36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the offshore wind sector in Europe, particularly following the recent awarding of 8.4GW capacity in the UK AR7 auction, with a budget increase to £1.8 billion [4]. Core Insights - The offshore wind capacity awarded in the UK AR7 auction is 8.44GW, with a budget increase to £1.8 billion, addressing previous issues of low pricing and insufficient new capacity [4]. - The report highlights that from 2025 to 2030, Europe is expected to see a total new installed capacity of 139.6GW for offshore wind and 47.6GW for onshore wind, with a CAGR of 28.6% and 11.5% respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes that the UK and Germany will be the main contributors to new offshore wind installations, accounting for 27.7% and 20.1% respectively from 2025 to 2034 [4]. - The report suggests that domestic manufacturers are likely to benefit from the growing European offshore wind market, with companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Mingyang Smart Energy leading the way in overseas orders [4]. Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Capacity and Budget - The UK AR7 auction results show a significant increase in offshore wind capacity awarded, with a budget that has doubled to £1.8 billion, improving project economics through a 14% increase in electricity prices [4]. European Market Growth - The report forecasts a substantial increase in offshore wind installations starting in 2026, with a sharp rise expected by 2029, reaching 11.77GW in 2030 [4]. Key Players and Opportunities - Companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Dongfang Cable are highlighted as key players benefiting from the European market expansion, with significant orders already secured [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the offshore wind sector in Europe, particularly following the recent awarding of 8.4GW capacity in the UK AR7 auction, with a budget increase to £1.8 billion [4]. Core Insights - The offshore wind capacity awarded in the UK AR7 auction is 8.44GW, with a budget increase to £1.8 billion, addressing previous issues of low pricing and insufficient new additions [4]. - The report highlights that the European offshore wind market is expected to see significant growth starting in 2026, with Germany and the UK being the primary contributors [4]. - The auction results indicate a strong demand for offshore wind projects, with a projected CAGR of 28.6% for offshore wind installations in Europe from 2025 to 2030 [4]. - The report suggests that Chinese manufacturers who have successfully entered the European market for tower, cable, and component manufacturing are likely to benefit from this growth [4]. Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Capacity and Budget - The UK AR7 auction results show a significant increase in awarded capacity and budget, with fixed prices for offshore wind set at £89-91/MWh, which is an improvement compared to previous auctions [4]. - The report notes that the auction results are a response to past issues, with a 14% increase in electricity prices improving project economics [4]. Market Growth Projections - According to Wind Europe, the total new installed capacity for offshore and onshore wind in Europe is projected to be 139.6GW and 47.6GW respectively from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 28.6% for offshore wind [4]. - The report anticipates a sharp increase in offshore wind installations starting in 2029, with 11.77GW expected to be added in 2030 alone [4]. Key Players and Opportunities - Major companies such as Daikin Heavy Industries, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Oriental Cable are highlighted as key players benefiting from the European offshore wind market expansion [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for floating wind power to achieve full commercialization by 2030, with Europe leading the way [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) on January 15, 2026, with the BSE 50 index declining by 2.28% to close at 1,544.84 points, indicating a challenging market environment [3] - The overall trading volume on the BSE reached 33.219 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.29%, showing a recovery compared to the previous week's average daily trading volume of 26.131 billion yuan [3] - The report notes that most sectors on the BSE experienced declines, with notable exceptions in the power equipment and transportation sectors, which saw slight increases of 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively [3] Market Performance - The BSE 50 index opened at 1,561.03 points, peaked at 1,573.71 points, and hit a low of 1,538.95 points during the trading session [3] - In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,112.60 points with a decline of 0.33%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.20% to 4,751.43 points [3] - The report indicates that 287 listed companies on the BSE had 61 gainers, 3 unchanged, and 223 decliners, with Tianming Technology leading the gainers at +11.56% [3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of BSE-listed companies is reported at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.50 times, which is higher than the P/E ratios of the STAR Market (79.37 times) and the ChiNext (46.18 times) [3][10] - The highest average P/E ratio among sectors on the BSE is in non-ferrous metals at 131.2 times, followed by telecommunications at 89.1 times and household appliances at 87.8 times [3][10] Sector Analysis - The report details that the media sector experienced the largest decline at -16.5%, followed by the computer sector at -8.1% and the oil and petrochemical sector at -5.5% [3] - The top gainers in the market included companies from various sectors, with notable performances from Tianming Technology (+11.56%), Lihua Shares (+8.41%), and Xinweiling (+8.26%) [8] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in companies such as Meideng Technology (-23.12%), Xingtou Measurement Control (-20.96%), and Zhongcheng Technology (-17.29%) [9] Trading Activity - The trading activity on the BSE was characterized by a total trading volume of 1.341 billion shares on the same day [3] - The most actively traded stocks included Xingtou Measurement Control with a trading volume of 1.35 billion yuan, followed by Liujin Technology at 1.01 billion yuan and Hengtong Light at 915 million yuan [3] Company Performance - The report provides detailed financial data for the top ten gainers and losers, highlighting their market capitalization, revenue, net profit, and P/E ratios [8][9] - For instance, Tianming Technology had a market cap of 2.423 billion yuan with a revenue of 253 million yuan and a net profit of 62 million yuan, resulting in a P/E ratio of 49.25 [8] - In contrast, Meideng Technology had a market cap of 3.466 billion yuan with a revenue of 148 million yuan and a net profit of 42 million yuan, leading to a P/E ratio of 85.65 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing a positive start to the year, with an index increase of 18.04%, ranking third among SW primary industries, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 3.96% and the CSI 300's increase of 2.42% [3] - AI applications are becoming the core driving force behind the current upward trend in the computer sector, with the Wind AI application index rising by 19.25% [3] - The commercialization of AI applications is expected to transition from a usable to a useful stage in 2026, creating investment opportunities in both AI applications and domestic computing power [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry index has shown significant growth, outperforming major indices, indicating a potential bottom reversal in industry sentiment [3] AI Application Trends - The report highlights a surge in AI application catalysts, with major companies like MiniMax and Zhiyuan AI showing strong market performance post-IPO [3] - Collaborations between companies such as NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are expected to drive advancements in AI-assisted drug discovery, further enhancing the AI application landscape [3] B-end vs C-end AI Applications - B-end AI applications are anticipated to see rapid growth, with a focus on sectors like marketing, industrial software, healthcare, and finance [3] - C-end applications are viewed as long-term value investments, leveraging existing user bases and brand strength to enhance product offerings through AI [3] Domestic Computing Power - The demand for data centers is expected to rise, with a recovery in domestic AIDC bidding starting in Q4 2025, leading to accelerated data center deployments by major internet companies in 2026 [3] - The restoration of H200 supply is projected to improve model training efficiency, further driving the need for domestic computing power chips [3] Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities include major players in large models and Maas manufacturers, domestic computing power and data center supply chains, and various AI application sectors [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the industry, indicating a "Neutral" stance, with expected performance relative to the benchmark index within the range of -5% to 10% [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected growth rate of 2.67% for the industry, with a specific mention of a 4.73% growth observed in 2015 [5]. - It notes a slight increase in performance metrics, with a 0.31% and 0.56% change in relevant indicators [5]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Performance**: The industry is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, with a focus on the 2.67% growth rate and historical performance of 4.73% in 2015 [5]. - **Analyst Background**: The report is authored by Zhang Qi, a non-bank analyst with two years of experience in non-bank research, holding a PhD from the University of International Business and Economics, and has been with China Galaxy Securities Research Institute since December 2020 [7].

公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 收入突破 200 亿元，维持长线价值区间判断 —— 公司业绩预告点评 2026 年 01 月 14 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 20,913 | 26,559 | 32,217 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 32.04 | 27.00 | 21.31 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,474 | 5,679 | 6,980 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 34.48 | 26.95 | 22.90 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 6.40 | 8.60 | 10.92 | 13.42 | | PE | 40.33 | 29.99 | 23.62 | 19.22 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | | 推荐 维持评级 | 分析师 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj ...

Export Performance - In December 2025, China's exports reached $357.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, and above the ten-year average of 3.4%[1] - Imports in December totaled $243.6 billion, with a growth rate of 5.7%, significantly higher than the previous month's 1.9% and the ten-year average of 0.8%[1] - The trade surplus for December was $114.14 billion, compared to $111.68 billion in the previous month[1] Market Dynamics - The strong export growth in December was supported by global economic recovery and ongoing market diversification, with ASEAN exports growing by 11.2% and exports to Hong Kong increasing by 31.4%[1][5] - The PMI for global manufacturing remained above the threshold at 50.4, indicating continued economic expansion, which positively influenced export orders[5] Product Categories - High-tech product exports grew by 16.6%, while mechanical and electrical products saw a 12.1% increase; however, labor-intensive product exports continued to decline, with a rate of -8.5%[3][20] - Notable increases in specific categories included automotive exports rising by 71.6% and integrated circuits by 47.7%[3][20] Regional Trade Insights - Exports to the United States continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 30%, contributing negatively to overall export growth[1][14] - Exports to Africa remained strong, with a growth rate of 21.8%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to overall export growth[1][14] Future Outlook - China's overall export growth for 2025 is projected at 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% in 2024, with expectations of continued resilience despite external uncertainties[25] - The ongoing diversification of export markets and improvements in product competitiveness are expected to support future growth[25][32]

宏观动态报告 2026 年 1 月 14 日 分析师 张迪 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 同比温和、环比偏强 研究助理：吴佳文 -12 月美国 CPI 点评 风险提示 ☎: 010-8092-7737 1. 服务价格回落不及预期的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 通胀整体符合预期,但环比结构偏强:美国 2025 年 12 月未季调 CPI 同比升 2.7%,与预期一致,前值为 2.7%;季调后 CPI 环比升 0.3%,符合预期。未季调 核心 CPI 同比升 2.6%,略低于预期 2.7%,与前值持平;季调后核心 CPI 环比升 0.2%,低于预期 0.3%。从同比角度看变化有限,通胀已经脱离快速回落阶段; 从环比看，食品与服务项带来一定上行压力，通胀呈现黏性特征。 ● 食品价格广泛走强,是当月通胀的主要推动项:食品环比上涨 0.7%,对整体通 胀贡献约 0.10 个百分点,是本月增幅的主要来源。居家食品与外食均升 0.7%, 其中谷物烘焙升 ...