"增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 CGS-NDI 专题报告 "增长滤镜"下的东盟消费潜力再评估 2025 证 10 证 14 证 核心观点 分析师 首席经济学家 章俊 证8092 -8906 证zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 研究助理：田冀霖 证tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 研究助理：刘小逸 证liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 东盟消费规模增长预测 证证证证证Euromonitor 证证证证证证证证证证 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 东盟消费潜力的再审视 ：2025 证证证证证证证证证证 IP 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ...

为何进出口数据再超预期？ —— 9 月进出口数据解读 2025 证 10 证 13 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 风险提示： 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证 证证证 证证证证证证证 证证证 证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2 宏观动态报告 1 ⚫ 10 月 13 日海关总署公布 9 月进出口数据： 9 证证证证证证证 3286 证证证证 证证证证证 8.3% 证证证 4.4% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2.9% 证证证 2381 证证证证证证 7.4% 证证证 1.3% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1.7% 证 证证证证 904.5 证证证证证证 1023 证证证证 证 ⚫ 9 月出口增速反弹回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The release of Sora 2 by OpenAI is expected to further drive demand for computing power and storage [3]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rapid development phase, with significant contributions from domestic storage manufacturers to capital expenditures in wafer foundries [3]. - The advanced packaging segment of the semiconductor industry is becoming increasingly important, driven by new applications in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [3]. - The demand for digital chips is being propelled by the growth of AI, with a notable increase in the need for CPUs, GPUs, and high-performance storage chips [3]. - The report highlights the potential for a cyclical upswing in the storage chip industry due to advancements in AI [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - Major domestic foundry SMIC maintains capital expenditures at USD 7-8 billion per year [3]. - Longxin Technology's IPO guidance status has changed to "Acceptance of Guidance" [3]. - Longchuan Technology expects a net profit of RMB 400-450 million for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 180.67%-215.75% [3]. - Domestic semiconductor materials are gradually achieving localization, with companies like Dinglong Co. forecasting a net profit of RMB 190-220 million for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 19.89%-38.82% [3]. Integrated Circuit Packaging and Testing - The packaging and testing sector is experiencing rapid growth and technological upgrades, with advanced packaging becoming a key path for performance enhancement [3]. Analog and Digital Chip Design - The recovery in demand from consumer electronics, enterprise markets, and industrial sectors is noted, while the automotive market has not yet shown signs of recovery [3]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a "GPU+ASIC" heterogeneous computing model, driven by major cloud providers' investments in self-developed ASICs [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Chipone Technology, Cambrian, and SMIC due to their potential in AI infrastructure and storage chip sectors [3].

2025 年 10月 11 日 实际上,虽然 5月12日中美日内瓦联合声明之后,中美贸易摩擦总体上 呈现趋缓迹象,但9月份以来美国在部分领域对中国再度施压。9月8日, 美国战略金属公司(USSM)与巴基斯坦签署谅解备忘录,共同开发稀土及 关键矿产资源链,包括勘探、选矿和冶炼等环节。9月12日,美国商务部 将复旦微电子等 23 家中国企业列入实体清单,收紧半导体、AI 领域技术 出口。9 月份,对中国电动汽车、太阳能电池、家具、重卡等领域加征 25~100%的关税。 轮船和稀土是中美博弈的核心议题。轮船之所以成为中美博弈的核心,是 因为它不仅承载全球贸易运输,还直接关联造船业和军事潜力。通过对中 资船舶和中国制造船舶征收港务费,可以间接提高中国商品出口成本,同 时打击中国的造船业;而民用造船业又是军用造船的基础,也触及战略与 军事能力,成为双方博弈的重要议题。而稀土是当今世界最为重要的战略 资源之一,被誉为现代工业的"维生素",是高科技制造和军工产业的关 键原材料。美国高科技产业和军事工业对稀土依赖极高,但自身供应严重 依赖进口,中国的稀土出口管控直接影响其相关产业链的稳定运行。因此 稀土成为中美博弈中的另一个 ...

研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 9 月央国企 ESG 策略有所回撤 ——ESG 与央国企月度报告（2025 年 9 月） 2025 年 10 月 10 日 ESG 与央国企月度报告 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ ESG 筛选策略（沪深 300）：该策略是采用我们在 2023 年 12 月 8 日发布 的《厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策略解析与优化构建》报告中呈现的筛 选策略，不但充分考察了 ESG 所提供的增量风险信息，还结合了马科维兹资 产组合理论。详细内容可参考原报告。策略表现：本周截止 9 月 26 日，ESG 筛选策略（沪深 300）最新一个月总回报为-2%，相对总回报为-3%、最大涨 幅为 1%，最大跌幅为-3%，夏普比例为-2.80。 ⚫ ESG 舆情整合策略（沪深 300）：该策略是采用我们在 2025 年 2 月 28 日 发布的《穿越市场周期变幻：E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The mechanical equipment industry is entering the "AI Era," which will create significant investment opportunities centered around AI infrastructure and AI empowerment [4][15] - The report highlights the historical performance of the mechanical equipment sector during previous five-year plans, indicating that each era has distinct characteristics that influence investment opportunities [6][10] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Five-Year Plans - The mechanical equipment industry has shown varying performance across the past four five-year plans, with significant growth during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (642% increase) and a decline during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (-21% decrease) [6][7] - The industry ranked second among 28 sectors during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and seventh during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, reflecting its evolving significance [7][8] 2. AI Infrastructure: Driving Demand for PCB Equipment, AIDC, Liquid Cooling, and Semiconductor Equipment - The AI computing revolution is expected to drive structural growth in PCB demand, with a projected annual growth rate of 16.3% for AI server-related HDI from 2023 to 2028 [19] - The report anticipates that the global PCB market will reach $73.565 billion in 2024, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase, and $94.661 billion by 2029 [19] - AI servers significantly increase the unit value of PCBs, with a single AI server PCB valued at $500-$800, compared to $200-$300 for traditional servers [20] - The report identifies challenges in capacity expansion, including long delivery times for high-end equipment and complex process validations [21] 3. AI Empowerment: The Rise of Embodied Intelligent Robots - The report discusses the practical applications of embodied intelligent robots in industrial logistics, elderly care, and specialized environments, emphasizing their potential to improve efficiency and safety [4][15] - It highlights the importance of technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness in the deployment of these robots [4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI infrastructure and AI empowerment as key investment directions for the mechanical equipment industry during the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan [4][15] - Specific recommendations include AI PCB equipment, AIDC power generation equipment, liquid cooling solutions, and semiconductor equipment [4][15] 5. Related Listed Companies - The report provides insights into key companies in the PCB equipment sector, such as Dazhu CNC, Chipbond Technology, and Dongwei Technology, highlighting their market performance and technological advancements [40][41]

Group 1 - The development of new quality productivity is a primary task for accelerating the transition from old to new driving forces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is crucial for achieving the goals set for 2035 and completing the reform tasks outlined in the Third Plenary Session [4][6][11] - The concept of "new quality productivity" was first proposed during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the need to cultivate strategic emerging industries and future industries to enhance new driving forces [24][25] - The importance of new quality productivity has been highlighted in various policy meetings, indicating a strategic focus on innovation and the integration of technology and industry [23][24][25] Group 2 - The macro background for developing new quality productivity includes the need for high-quality economic growth, a shift from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, and addressing challenges posed by an aging population and declining investment rates in traditional sectors [12][14][20][22] - The policy framework is continuously strengthening, with multiple government meetings emphasizing the need to promote technological innovation and industry transformation to enhance new quality productivity [23][24][25] Group 3 - New quality productivity encompasses several industries, including strategic emerging industries such as new generation information technology, biotechnology, new energy, and advanced manufacturing, as well as future industries driven by cutting-edge technologies [4][25][31] - Traditional industries are also targeted for transformation and upgrading, focusing on areas like industrial internet, digital infrastructure, and artificial intelligence, which are essential for enhancing productivity [46][47] - The digital economy plays a significant role in the new quality productivity framework, with rapid growth projected in both digital industrialization and the digitalization of traditional industries [50][55] Group 4 - The investment outlook for new quality productivity themes suggests that technology companies with genuine technological barriers will be a key investment focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant growth expected in related sectors [4][6] - The new quality productivity index has shown substantial performance, with a cumulative increase of 92.23% from September 2024 to September 2025, outperforming the overall A-share index [4][6] - Capital market reforms are expected to further enhance the valuation of new quality productivity themes, attracting more resources to this area and promoting structural transformation and high-quality development [4][6]

——2025 年中秋国庆假期数据点评 维持 顾熹闽 本报告由中国银河证券股份有限公司（以下简称银河证券）向其客户提供。银河证券无需因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 若您并非银河证券客户中的专业投资者,为保证服务质量、控制投资风险、应首先联系银河证券机构销售部门或客户经理,完成投 资者适当性匹配,并充分了解该项服务的性质、特点、使用的注意事项以及若不当使用可能带来的风险或损失。 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 证券|CGS 行业点评 · 社会服务行业 分析师承诺及简介 本人承诺以勤勉的执业态度,独立、客观地出具本报告,本报告清晰准确地反映本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不 曾与、现在不与、未来也将不会与本报告的具体推荐或观点直接或间接相关。 顾熹闻 社会服务行业首席分析师。同济大学金融学硕士,8年证券研究经验。曾先后任职于海通证券、民生证券、国联证券, 2022 年 7 月加入中国银河证券。曾获 2022 第十届 Choice 社会服务业最佳分析师，2020 年《财经》杂志行业盈利预测最准确分 析师。 免责声明 本报告所载的全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客户的投资咨询建议,并非作为买卖、认购证券或其它 ...

尢∠㬅㚫 u役侁㬸尢∠ ╭䟯ⴶ⿇檙⚥䯬 AI ⊭∠掲╪⋽⑂╖䞟㬜 2025 10 1 役侁㬸尢∠ 㞩圯 勛㜃徜劎 lupei_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130521060001 哂㨉 010 -80927637 hutianhao _yj @chinastock.com.cn ☋㮍㈌ ⠹䰅欩 010 -66568589 wuyanjing @chinastock.com.cn S0130519070001 灏⍯ 021 20257809 S0130525070004 䫤⿺䂥䇪 300 尾䞟⬀ 2024 -10 -1 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2020-01-02 2020-03-02 2020-05-02 2020-07-02 2020-09-02 2020-11-02 2021-01-02 2021-03-02 2021-05-02 2021-07-02 2021-09-02 2021-11-02 2022-01-02 2022-03-02 2022-05-02 2022-07-02 2022-09-02 2022-11-02 ...

Collaboration Framework: Building a Multi-Dimensional Cooperation System Centered on Digital Intelligence and Innovation - The China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO) has become a significant platform for cooperation between China and ASEAN, with the 22nd CAEXPO held in Guangxi from September 17-21, 2025, focusing on "Digital Empowerment for Development, Innovation Leading the Future" [5][6] - The expo featured over 3,260 enterprises from 60 countries, marking a historical high in scale and participation, with a significant emphasis on high-level political and business engagement [6][7] - The CAEXPO showcased a dedicated AI pavilion with over 1,200 exhibits, where AI-related products accounted for more than 50% of the total exhibits, highlighting the integration of advanced technology into various sectors [12][13] Capital Market: Major Indices Rise, Bond Market Shows Moderate Volatility - From September 1 to 19, 2025, ASEAN major stock indices exhibited a mixed performance, with gains ranging from -1.35% to +4.07%, led by Indonesia (+4.07%) and Thailand (+3.88%) [19][20] - The ASEAN currencies strengthened against the US dollar during the same period, with notable appreciation in the Thai Baht (1.40%) and Malaysian Ringgit (0.44%) [28] - The bond markets in ASEAN showed moderate fluctuations, with Malaysia's 10-year government bond yield remaining stable between 3.39% and 3.43%, reflecting market confidence in its economic stability [32][33] Cooperation with China: Upgrading Institutional Framework and Expanding Diverse Industries - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement is set to be signed in October 2025, marking a significant institutional upgrade in bilateral economic cooperation [37][39] - High-level interactions between Chinese and ASEAN leaders have intensified, enhancing political trust and paving the way for practical cooperation in trade, security, and cultural exchanges [39][40] - The focus of cooperation is shifting towards digitalization and green development, with practical measures in cross-border e-commerce, smart manufacturing, and educational collaboration being implemented [41][42]