CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The report discusses the recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the prohibition of monopolistic behaviors such as price and capacity coordination, while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standard improvements [4] - The report notes a continued upward trend in industry chain prices, with expectations for profit recovery in 2026 as terminal demand gradually warms up [4] - The rise of commercial space and the acceleration of the space photovoltaic industry are emphasized, with significant plans for deploying solar energy networks in space [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to the photovoltaic industry's silicon material integration platform, citing monopolistic concerns [4] - The framework for collaborative governance among enterprises, power generation parties, and associations is outlined, focusing on compliance and quality standards [4] Industry Price Trends - Recent data indicates that the average transaction price for N-type silicon material has increased to 59,200 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83% [4] - Prices for N-type silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen upward adjustments, with average prices reaching 1.4 to 1.7 CNY per piece and 0.39 CNY per watt, respectively [4] Space Photovoltaic Development - Elon Musk's plan to deploy 100GW of solar energy satellites annually is highlighted, alongside China's phased deployment of gigawatt-level space data centers from 2025 to 2035 [4] - The report anticipates that space photovoltaic technology will become commercialized within the next 10-15 years, driven by decreasing launch costs and breakthroughs in battery technology [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaic, including JunDa Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4] - It also recommends attention to leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, such as LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - Companies benefiting from anti-involution policies in the silicon material segment, such as Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy, are also highlighted [4] - The report advises monitoring companies that prioritize synergy in energy storage and are relatively independent from the main chain, such as Sungrow Power Supply and others [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector aim to prevent monopolistic behaviors while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standards [4] - The prices in the industry continue to rise, indicating a recovery, with silicon material prices increasing by 9.83% week-on-week to 59,200 CNY/ton [4] - The commercial space sector is emerging, with plans for deploying solar energy satellites, which could lead to significant advancements in space photovoltaic technology [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to silicon material integration in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on preventing monopolistic practices [4] - Compliance measures are being established to ensure fair competition among industry participants [4] Industry Performance - The prices of N-type silicon wafers and cells have seen increases, with N-type cell prices rising to 0.39 CNY/W and TOPCon module prices reaching 0.7 CNY/W [4] - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2026 as terminal demand recovers [4] Technological Advancements - The report emphasizes the potential of space photovoltaic technology, which can generate energy continuously and is projected to become commercialized in the next 10-15 years [4] - The focus is on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaics, such as Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 0.22% to close at 1,496.28 points on January 7, 2026, with a trading volume of 275.48 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.09% [1][2] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 47.70 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and STAR Market [1][8] - The sectors with the largest gains include Oil & Petrochemicals (+6.0%), Nonferrous Metals (+5.4%), and Communications (+1.6%), while the sectors with the largest declines include Computers (-2.2%), Defense & Military (-1.8%), and Pharmaceuticals & Biology (-1.5%) [1][2] Trading Performance - On January 7, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 903.09 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 549.77 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume was 10.35 billion shares, indicating a recovery compared to the average daily trading volume of 19.40 billion yuan from the previous week [1][5] Stock Performance - Among the 287 listed companies, 95 saw an increase in stock price, while 187 experienced a decline. The top gainers included Jiaxian Co. (+25.68%), Huitong New Materials (+16.83%), and Jiuling Technology (+8.29%) [1][6] - The largest declines were observed in Jinhao Medical (-14.76%), Tianming Technology (-12.58%), and Guoyuan Technology (-11.59%) [1][7] Valuation Insights - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange companies is 47.70 times, with the highest sector being Nonferrous Metals at 130.5 times, followed by Household Appliances at 90.9 times and Food & Beverage at 82.3 times [1][8] - The P/E ratios for STAR Market and ChiNext are 76.06 times and 45.01 times, respectively, indicating that the North Exchange maintains a higher valuation compared to these markets [1][9] Sector Analysis - The North Exchange shows a mixed performance across various sectors, with significant gains in Oil & Petrochemicals and Nonferrous Metals, while sectors like Computers and Pharmaceuticals are underperforming [1][10] - The distribution of listed companies across sectors indicates a diverse market presence, with a notable concentration in sectors such as Machinery and Chemicals [1][11]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The Ministry of Commerce and 9 other departments issued the "Notice on Implementing Green Consumption Promotion Actions" to enhance the green consumption incentive mechanism and promote widespread green consumption behavior[2] - The notice focuses on three main areas: strengthening the supply of green products, cultivating new growth points for green consumption, and optimizing the green consumption environment[3][4] Group 2: Key Measures - It emphasizes enhancing the supply of green agricultural products, promoting green home appliances, and improving the quality of green services in sectors like dining and accommodation[3] - The notice proposes the establishment of a universal green consumption points system to encourage green purchasing and support public services for points users[4] - It advocates for the development of a green recycling system to reduce single-use plastics and promote the circulation of second-hand goods[4] Group 3: Policy Evolution - The green consumption policy has evolved from focusing on energy-saving appliances and electric vehicles in 2016 to now including green agricultural products and services like green housekeeping and accommodation[5] - The policy mechanism has shifted from "single incentives" to a "systematic collaborative empowerment" approach, integrating incentives, guarantees, and regulations[9] Group 4: Implementation and Risks - The notice aims to cover the entire supply chain, from production to circulation and recycling, ensuring a comprehensive approach to green consumption[9] - Risks include potential underperformance in policy implementation and misunderstandings regarding the policy[10]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.82% to close at 1,493.04 points on January 6, 2026, with a trading volume of 259.89 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.97% [3][4][6] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 47.74 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and STAR Market [3][10] - The sectors that performed well include non-ferrous metals (+11.1%), home appliances (+4.5%), computers (+4.4%), and machinery (+3.0%), while the pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 0.5% [3][4] Trading Performance - On January 6, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 903.76 billion yuan, with 396.77 billion shares listed, of which 253.49 billion shares were tradable [3][4] - The average daily trading volume for the previous week was 194.04 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in trading levels on January 6 [3][4] Stock Performance - Among the 287 listed companies, 264 saw an increase in stock prices, while 21 experienced declines. Notable gainers included Hanxin Technology (+29.99%) and Tianli Composite (+29.99%), while Jin Hao Medical saw a significant drop of 14.57% [3][8][9] - The top ten stocks by market performance on January 6 included Hanxin Technology, Tianli Composite, and Beiyikang, with respective market capitalizations of 30.35 billion yuan, 95.63 billion yuan, and 39.80 billion yuan [8][9] Valuation Analysis - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for companies on the North Exchange is 47.74 times, with the highest sector being non-ferrous metals at 126.1 times, followed by home appliances at 92.8 times and food and beverage at 81.7 times [3][10] - The valuation of the North Exchange continues to be higher than that of the ChiNext, which has a P/E ratio of 44.85 times [3][10] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed the highest increase in stock prices, reflecting strong market interest and potential growth opportunities [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector, in contrast, faced challenges, as indicated by the decline in stock prices, suggesting potential issues within the industry [3][4][9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [3] - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on fundamental factors tailored to national enterprises, considering both general and industry-specific factors [5][6] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool using the CSI National Enterprise Index (000955.CSI) and stocks listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange for over six months with central or local state-owned enterprise attributes [3] - Classify industries into dividend-oriented and growth-oriented categories based on ZX third-level industry logic [3][4] - Select general factors such as ROE (TTM), operating cash ratio, labor productivity, asset-liability ratio, and dividend yield [5][6] - Incorporate industry-specific factors like ROIC, prepayment growth rate, inventory turnover rate, and capital expenditure/depreciation ratio for different industries [6][8] - Adjust factor weights based on industry characteristics, emphasizing dividend yield for dividend-oriented industries and reducing the weight of asset-liability ratio for growth-oriented industries [9] - Calculate scores using weighted averages of general and industry-specific factors, normalize the scores, and assign weights to stocks based on their scores [11] - Formula for stock weight: $$w_{i}={\frac{s c o r e_{i}^{3}}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}s c o r e_{i}^{3}}}$$ [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively captures the characteristics of national enterprises, balancing dividend stability and growth potential [5][6] Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [19] - **Model Construction Idea**: Focus on technology stocks with high R&D investment and strong growth potential, using fundamental factors to identify stocks in their growth and mature stages [20][23] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool based on SW third-level industries and R&D investment criteria (R&D expenses > 5% of revenue or R&D personnel > 10% of total employees) [19][20] - Exclude stocks in the shock and decline stages based on cash flow lifecycle analysis [22][23] - Select general factors such as profitability, growth ability, technical level, supply chain concentration, and alpha factors [24][28] - Incorporate specific factors for growth and mature stages, such as management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, accounts receivable turnover rate, and PB-ROE [24][28] - Adjust scores using R&D expense multipliers to emphasize high R&D industries [28][29] - Formula for stock weight: $$w e i g h t_{i}={\frac{s c o r e_{i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{50}s c o r e_{i}}}$$ [30] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy highlights technology stocks with strong R&D capabilities and growth potential, effectively capturing industry-specific dynamics [24][28] Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [38] - **Model Construction Idea**: Focus on consumer stocks with direct-to-consumer business models, using fundamental factors to identify stocks with strong growth, profitability, and governance [38][39] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool based on SW third-level industries, categorizing stocks into daily manufacturing, optional manufacturing, daily services, and optional services [38][39] - Select general factors such as growth-profitability-cash flow composite factor, operating cash flow ratio, ESG management score, and economic sensitivity [40][41] - Incorporate specific factors like market share, R&D expense ratio, accounts receivable turnover rate, and marketing expense ratio [40][41] - Adjust scores using PS (TTM) multipliers to emphasize stocks with lower price-to-sales ratios [46][47] - Formula for stock weight: $$w e l g h t_{i}={\frac{S c o r e_{i}^{a d j}}{\sum_{i=1}^{50}S c o r e_{i}^{a d j}}}$$ [48] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively identifies consumer stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential, balancing profitability and governance [40][41] --- Model Backtesting Results National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 22.93% [12][15] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.85% [15] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0961 [15] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.9963 [15] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -23.01% [15] Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 30.61% [31][34] - **Annualized Volatility**: 27.61% [34] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.1070 [34] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.8962 [34] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -34.16% [34] Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 24.86% [49][52] - **Annualized Volatility**: 22.99% [52] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0825 [52] - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.0197 [52] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -24.38% [52]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2026.01.05） 2026 年 01 月 05 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-01-05 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美"到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2026.01.05） -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 北交所算数平均涨跌幅 A股算数平均涨跌幅 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) has shown a total return of -2% for the latest month, with a relative total return of -5%, a maximum gain of 1%, and a maximum loss of -3% as of December 30, 2025 [3][6] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy (CSI 300) has reported a total return of -5% for the latest month, with a relative total return of -8%, a maximum gain of 0.16%, and a maximum loss of -5% as of December 30, 2025 [6][9] - The overall market performance in December showed a decline in both pure ESG strategies and ESG & central state-owned enterprise strategies, while the pure central state-owned enterprise strategy yielded positive returns [10][11] Group 2 - The cumulative return rates as of December 29, 2025, are as follows: ESG & central state-owned enterprises at 88.80%, central state-owned enterprises at 74.30%, ESG at 100.13%, and the entire A-share market at 31.52% [10][11] - The monthly performance for December indicates a decline of -2.20% for ESG & central state-owned enterprises, a slight increase of 0.27% for central state-owned enterprises, and a minor decline of -0.11% for the ESG sector [10][11] - The number and issuance of ESG funds have decreased during the month [10] Group 3 - Valuation metrics show that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the entire A-share market is at 22.28, while the P/E ratios for central state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises are at 10.07 and 10.41, respectively [15][16] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 18,724 billion yuan, while central state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises had trading volumes of 591 billion yuan and 919 billion yuan, respectively [15][16] Group 4 - The national carbon market has seen a decrease in trading volume, with the closing price for carbon emission allowances at 72.87 yuan per ton, up from 59.65 yuan per ton previously [21][23] - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances in December was 46.2182 million tons, down from 47.7532 million tons [21][23]

Core Insights - The ESG strategies experienced a slight pullback this week, with the ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) declining by 1.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.59%, resulting in an excess return of -0.45% [1][4] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy also saw a decline of 0.82%, again underperforming the CSI 300 benchmark, leading to an excess return of -0.23% [1][8] ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, evaluates the incremental risk information provided by ESG factors and incorporates Markowitz portfolio theory [1][4] - Performance metrics as of December 31, 2025: - Total return for the last month: -3% - Relative total return: -4% - Maximum gain: 1% - Maximum loss: -3% - Sharpe ratio: -6.52 [1][7] ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, derived from the report published on February 28, 2025, also assesses the incremental risk information from ESG sentiment while applying Markowitz portfolio theory [1][8] - Performance metrics as of December 31, 2025: - Total return for the last month: -4% - Relative total return: -6% - Maximum gain: 0.2% - Maximum loss: -4% - Sharpe ratio: -8.78 [1][11]