Global Asset Performance - Central banks' monetary policies are diverging, with Australia raising interest rates for the first time in two years, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged [4][5] - Amazon is expected to increase capital expenditures by over 50% this year to build AI infrastructure, impacting its stock price negatively [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance is seen as favorable for economic stability, with a projected growth of approximately 2.2% in 2026 [4][5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold rose by 5.13%, while COMEX silver fell by 1.28% due to increased margin requirements and selling pressure from leveraged positions [9][10] - The core logic for gold's bull market has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [10] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from global green transitions, indicating a positive long-term demand structure [10] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed a significant bull steepening, with the 2-year yield declining sharply due to weak labor market data, while long-term yields fell less due to inflation concerns [20][24] - The Chinese bond market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with the yield curve showing complex changes, particularly in the 10-year and 30-year bonds [24][25] - Long-term expectations suggest a potential decline in Chinese bond yields, with the 10-year yield possibly falling to the 1.6%-1.8% range by the end of 2026 [25] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.51%, driven by a significant sell-off in global tech stocks and traditional safe-haven trading [27] - The euro against the dollar fell by 0.30%, influenced by the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates and easing inflation pressures [34] - The British pound declined by 0.95%, affected by internal policy disagreements and expectations of potential rate cuts [39] Equity Market - The market is shifting from tech growth stocks to value stocks, with traditional sectors like finance and energy leading gains, while tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ faced declines [43][48] - Notable performances include the Indian SENSEX30 rising by 3.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.50% [43] - The outlook suggests that if higher interest rates become the norm, growth stocks may face ongoing valuation pressure, while stable value stocks could outperform [48]

Group 1 - The pricing environment of the A-share market has not undergone a significant shift, reflecting the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic totals and the A-share market. Economic recovery signs are evident for 2025, but the pace of recovery in 2026 will require time [2][4] - The A-share market exhibits a notable "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, with historical trends indicating a preference for high-dividend, consumer, and defensive sectors before the festival, while small-cap and growth styles tend to perform better post-festival [2][12] - The current valuation levels of the A-share market are relatively high, with the overall A-index PE (TTM) at 23.04 times, placing it in the 93.71 percentile since 2010, while the PB (LF) is at 1.90 times, in the 54.40 percentile [2][17] Group 2 - Two important supports for the A-share market are policy stability and liquidity. Since September 2024, a series of policies have been introduced to stabilize expectations and increase market liquidity, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the capital market [2][4] - The A-share market's upward momentum remains strong, with a significant probability of an increase post-Spring Festival. A cautious strategy of "lightly holding stocks during the festival" is recommended to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for participation in the spring market [2][4] - Key investment directions include sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and construction materials, as well as focus areas like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, and aerospace [2][4][31]

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

摒弃"难减排"标签：高碳行业科学脱碳的关键前提 ——报告点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 3. 【银河 ESG】聚焦 ESG 分歧的指数增强策略能否 带来超额收益？ 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 11. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融研究：理论与实践的系统 性综述 12. 【银河 ES ...

Market Performance - On February 3, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 3.27%, closing at 1,549.51 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 21.55 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.28%[1] - The North Exchange's total market capitalization reached 937.94 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.40 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - All sectors on the North Exchange experienced gains, with the top performers being Communication (+5.1%), Computer (+3.6%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (+3.5%)[1] - Among the 292 listed companies, 273 saw an increase in stock price, while 18 declined[1] Stock Highlights - The top gainer was *ST Yun Chuang, which surged by 30.00%, followed by Liancheng CNC (+18.18%) and Gebijia (+13.91%)[1] - The largest trading volumes were recorded by Liancheng CNC (1.634 billion CNY), Hengtong Light (999.5 million CNY), and Liujin Technology (964 million CNY)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange stood at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.90 times, which is higher than the ChiNext's P/E of 45.85 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratios by sector on the North Exchange were in Non-ferrous Metals (138.1 times), followed by Communication (89.7 times) and Food & Beverage (87.9 times)[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][17]

策略研究 · 策略专题 2025 年业绩预告有哪些线索值得关注？ 2026 年 02 月 02 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2026-01-23，公募基金 2025 年四季度持仓有哪些 看点？ 2026-01-06，如何理解"非理性繁荣"下的"理性 泡沫" ？——AI 泡沫系列研究之总量篇 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投 资的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政 ...

ESG 策略周度报告 本周 ESG 策略小幅回撤 ——ESG 策略周度报告（20260130） 2026 年 2 月 2 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 2.【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合策 略新径 3.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 5.94%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250419） 4.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 0.79%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250425） ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 5.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 评级下调数居多，策略有 所回撤——ESG 策略周度报告（20250430） 6. 【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略绝对收益为 2.16%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250510） www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ...

Group 1: Export Growth and Economic Outlook - China's export growth is projected to be 5.4% in 2026, slightly down from 5.5% in 2025, driven by resilient export competitiveness and market diversification[1] - Global economic growth is forecasted to be between 2.6% and 3.3% in 2026, a slight decline from 2025, indicating a fragile recovery[2] - Leading indicators suggest that China's exports will remain strong in the first half of 2026, despite external demand uncertainties[2] Group 2: Global Trade Environment - The number of global trade restrictions has reached a historical high from 2020 to 2025, reversing decades of trade liberalization trends[2] - In 2026, while the intensity of the "tariff war" may ease, targeted restrictions are expected to proliferate, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on specific semiconductors[2][10] - Global merchandise trade volume showed a monthly average growth rate of 4.4% as of November 2025, a significant rebound from 0.9% in 2023[2][16] Group 3: China's Supply Chain Dominance - China accounted for 14.6% of global exports and 28% of global manufacturing GDP in 2024, indicating its dominant position in the global supply chain[3][23] - From 2019 to 2024, China captured 28.9% of the new export markets in the fastest-growing sectors, significantly higher than its overall export share[4][25] - China's export competitiveness in high-tech products, such as semiconductors and industrial robots, has improved, with its share in global robot exports rising from 11.3% in 2017 to nearly parity with Germany by 2024[5][27] Group 4: Export Market Diversification - In 2025, China's export share to the U.S. decreased by 3.5 percentage points, while shares to ASEAN and the EU increased by 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively[5][30] - Direct investment in Belt and Road countries surged from 5.4% in 2024 to 18.4% in the first eleven months of 2025, enhancing China's international standards and technology influence[5][30] - Despite trade tensions, China's trade surplus with other economies has increased, indicating a stable position in global supply chains[5][31]

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to significant market fluctuations and a rebound in the U.S. dollar[1] - Warsh's focus on supply-side reforms and a strong dollar concept may lead to a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts, despite expectations for a reduction[1] - The market is currently pricing in the risks associated with Warsh's potential balance sheet reduction strategy[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption has shown stability, with subway passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, while the number of domestic flights decreased by 1.4%[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in production activity[3] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.4% week-on-week, while vegetable prices fell by 0.8%[4] Group 3: Inflation and Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.5%, while Brent crude increased by 1.3% amid geopolitical tensions[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed results, with some industrial product prices experiencing volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply conditions[6] - Consumer price index (CPI) data indicated a decrease in vegetable prices, while egg prices continued to rise due to supply constraints[4] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - Local governments issued new general bonds totaling 45.6 billion yuan, with a significant increase in special bonds issuance[8] - The total outstanding local government debt surpassed 56 trillion yuan, reflecting proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth[8]

分析师 陶贻功 ☎：010-80927673 行业点评报告 · 公用事业行业 源装机创新高,用电量结构优化 -- 2025年全年电力数据点评 2026年1月 30 日 公用事亦 推荐 维持评级 网: taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 梁悠南 ☎：010-80927656 网: liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：s0130523070002 研究助理:马敏 z: mamin_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-1-30 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河环保公用】行业点评_风光装机增速分化,用 电量增速放缓 【银河环保公用】行业点评_水电电量降幅扩大，用 电量增速放缓 【银河环保公用】行业点评_风光新增装机下滑，用 电量增速加快 【银河环保公用】行业点评_太阳能单月装机创新高, 火电发电量由降转增 【银河环保公用】行业点评_太阳能装机持续高增长, 水核发电量增速下降 www.chinastock.com.c ...