责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 2025 年 7 月 18 日 银河观点集萃 美国 6 月零售销售环比增长 0.6% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:"五年规划"何以重要?——"十五五"系列报告之二。"十五五"规 ● 划建议稿有望在今年四季度出炉。中国即将进入"十五五"时期（2026-2030 年)。厘清五年规划重要性、编制方法与程序、演进历程和重要关注点,对我 们科学把握"十五五"时期长期投资趋势具有重要意义。 固收:6月到期规模为 21 年以来新高,新发中金融美元债为主力 -- 中资美 ● 元债一级市场跟踪。一级市场:6月中资美元债净融资规模为负。6月中资美 元债净融资规模为负,发行和到期规模均以无评级为主。主要板块净融资规模 均为负,金融美元债为发行主力。 ● CGS-NDI:中美企业 AI 战略加速分化---数字经济周报(202507第1期)。 本期焦点：云计算龙头企业加码全球数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. CPI increased to 2.7% year-on-year in June, with core CPI at 2.9%, indicating a rise in the prices of various goods, although the overall inflation remains moderate [2][3][4] - The increase in CPI is attributed to several factors, including a high base effect from 2024, a rise in core goods prices, and a narrowing deflationary impact from energy prices [3][4][5] - Short-term expectations suggest a mild rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while equity markets may face volatility due to high valuations and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 2: Urban Development and Real Estate - The 2025 Central Urban Work Conference emphasized a shift in urban development from rapid expansion to quality improvement, focusing on urban renewal and infrastructure investment [8][9] - The conference identified seven key tasks for urban development, including optimizing urban systems, promoting innovation, and enhancing livability [8][9] - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from new development models and urban renewal projects, with a focus on improving living conditions through the renovation of old housing and urban villages [28][30] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Real Estate - The urbanization rate in China is projected to reach 67% by 2024, indicating a transition to a stable development phase, which may lead to a recovery in real estate valuations [30] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, but the implementation of urban renewal policies may improve the performance of leading real estate companies [10][30] - The report suggests that companies with lower financing costs and high market share in core areas are likely to see operational improvements and valuation recovery [10][30] Group 4: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Growth Layer aims to support unprofitable hard-tech companies, providing a dedicated regulatory framework to facilitate their growth [32][35] - The new regulations are designed to balance market stability with the need for innovation, ensuring that companies meet specific profitability criteria while protecting investor interests [33][35] - The ongoing supportive policies for capital markets are expected to enhance the overall performance of the securities sector, with a focus on long-term capital expansion [35]

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Cha Bai Dao (2555.HK) with a "Buy" rating, anticipating a performance turnaround in 2025 [4][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the combination of industry recovery and product innovation is expected to drive a reversal in the company's performance. The tea beverage industry is entering a favorable cycle, benefiting from external delivery platform subsidies and a stabilization of competition [4][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Cha Bai Dao is a leading mid-range tea beverage brand in China, with a national presence and a focus on product diversity. As of 2024, the company operates 8,395 stores across various city tiers, with a significant presence in first and new first-tier cities [10][13]. - The company has established a strong franchise model and supply chain capabilities, maintaining its position as the third-largest player in the ready-to-drink tea market in China [12][13]. Industry Dynamics - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028. The market is currently characterized by a low penetration rate compared to developed markets [56][59]. - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with external subsidies from delivery platforms driving demand. The competitive landscape is stabilizing as brands shift from aggressive price competition to value-based competition [56][75]. Growth Potential - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its store network both domestically and internationally. The report anticipates significant growth in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, with a CAGR of 49.4% in store openings in lower-tier cities from 2020 to 2024 [10][12]. - Cha Bai Dao's product matrix includes a variety of tea beverages, with a focus on innovation and consumer trends. The company aims to launch new products weekly, enhancing its competitive edge [10][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Cha Bai Dao's revenue will recover from 49.18 billion yuan in 2024 to 57.60 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from 472 million yuan in 2024 to 922 million yuan in 2025. The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.38, 12.22, and 10.74, respectively [5][10]. - The financial performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet and cash flow management. The company has a low debt ratio of 28.40% as of 2024, indicating a strong financial position [53][54].

杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030004 策略研究 · 专题报告 A 股风格转换的历史复盘与回测分析 2024 年 07 月 16 日 核心观点: 分析师 网: wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 相关研究 2025-06-27，2025年大类资产中期投资展望：驭变 谋势 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望: 时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-21, 2025 年 A 股中期投资展望: 筑基行稳, 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10, 稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07,关键时间节点的发布会:一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25, 4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定 和活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 20 ...

| | | 分析师 行业点评报告 · 银行业 城市更新主线明确,关注信贷和资产质量改善机遇 中央城市工作会议解读 2025年7月16日 核心观点 银行 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-07-15 -20% 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件: 7月14-15日,中央城市工作会议举行,以推进城市更新为重要抓手, ● 大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升等。从银行角度带来增量信贷和 资产质量改善机遇: 政策效果兑现高度依赖资金配套,拓展银行增量信贷空间:会议以城市更 ● 新为核心抓手,着力推动基础设施升级、加快构建房地产发展新模式、建设便 捷高效的智慧城市,撬动增量融资需求。今年 5月发布的《关于持续推进城市 更新行动的意见》指出要健全多元化投融资方式,包括中央预算内资金、超 ...

| | | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 行业点评报告 · 银行业 城市更新主线明确,关注信贷和资产质量改善机遇 中央城市工作会议解读 2025年7月16日 核心观点 银行 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-07-15 -20% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 事件: 7月14-15日,中央城市工作会议举行,以推进城市更新为重要抓手, ● 大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升等。从银行角度带来增量信贷和 资产质量改善机遇: 政策效果兑现高度依赖资金配套,拓展银行增量信贷空间:会议以城市更 ● 新为核心抓手,着力推动基础设施升级、加快构建房地产发展新模式、建设便 捷高效的智慧城市,撬动增量融资需求。今年 5月发布的《关于持续推进城市 更新行动的意见》指出要健全多元化投融资方式,包括中央预算内资金、超 ...

2025 年 7 月 16 日 银河观点集萃 每日晨报 责任编辑 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:从央行新闻发布会再看股债汇三角——2025年 6 月金融数据及新闻发 布会解读。货币政策展望:我们认为 507一揽子货币政策的推出可以被视为货 币政策走向实质性宽松的宣告,但并非宽松的顶点,下半年货币宽松可能会超 出市场预期。我们预计下半年货币政策的首要目标仍然是经济增长和充分就 业。从外部看,美元的拐点已经出现,将出现趋势性下行,非美货币的压力减 轻,人民币汇率压力已释放,将为货币宽松创造顺风条件。从内部来看有两条 主线:一是美国对中国加征关税可能给中国出口带来一定冲击,中国经济增速 可能阶段性放缓,并面临一定的就业压力;二是下半年可能依然处在低通胀环 境,实际利率仍然偏高,依然有调降的必要性。展望下半年,宽松的路径可能 包括进一步的降息降准,预计下半年还会有 1-2 次降息,总计调降政策利率 20-30BP,从而引导 LPR 下行,并传导至贷款、存款利率的进一步下行。50BP 的降准也有望落地。其他可能的宽松路径还包括新型政策性金融工具的推出、 PSL 的重启、结构性货币政策工 ...

银河策略 · 点评报告 中央城市工作会议利好 A 股市场哪些板块? -2025 年中央城市工作会议内容解读 核心观点: 2025 年 07 月 15 日 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 極: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030004 周美丽 网: zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 王雪莹 网: wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S01305250600003 相关研究 2025-06-27, 2025 年大类资产中期投资展望:驭变 谋势 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望: 时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-21, 2025 年 A 股中期投资展望: 筑基行稳, 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07,关键时间节点的发布会:一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25,4月中央政治局会议解读: ...