Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both of which are at the 81% and 82% percentile levels since 2019 [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, which is at the 8% percentile since 2010 [2][20] - The report suggests that sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and "anti-involution" industries, should be closely monitored [2][37] - The performance of companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports is expected to rebound, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][38]

核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 策略研究 · 周度报告 港股热度持续升温,场内热点轮动加速 2025 年 07 月 20 日 相关研究 | 2025-06-27, 2025 年大类资产中期投资展望:驭变谋 | | --- | | 势 | | 2025-06-22. 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, | | 见机而作 | | 2025-06-21,2025年 A 股中期投资展望:筑基行稳. | | 重塑鼎新 | | 2025-06-10. 稳定币概念股投资展望 | | 2025-05-29. 上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? | | 2025-05-07,关键时间节点的发布会:一揽子金融政策 | | 稳市场稳预期 | | 2025-04-25,4月中央政治局会议解读:"持续稳定和 | | 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? | | 2025-04-23,公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? | | 2025-04-08,汇金入市,坚定看多 | | 2025-04-03. 港股 ...

反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过 宏观周报（7 月 14 日-20 日） 2025 年 7 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3719 国：zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 日雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 本周关注:7月18日,工信部在国新办新闻发布会上宣布,钢铁、有色金 属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台,明确将推动重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能,具体方案近期陆续发布。自7月1日 中央财经委会议明确提出要"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争",关注后续 相关政策出台。国内方面,出行市场暑期热度上升,外需本周继续回升;反 内卷成效果初现,焦煤、焦炭及 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the AI sector, highlighting significant growth potential and investment opportunities in both domestic and international markets [4][9]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with the U.S. AI industry showing an 80.19% increase since the beginning of 2024, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq index, which rose by 38.47% during the same period [9][13]. - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low-cost strategies, fostering user habits that could lead to long-term profitability [9][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a complete AI ecosystem in China, driven by domestic innovation and a large user base, which is expected to enhance the commercial viability of AI applications [9][34]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. AI Market Review - The U.S. AI sector has shown a clear upward trend in 2024, driven by technological advancements and product upgrades, with significant contributions from major companies like OpenAI and Google [13][17]. - The report notes that the AI sector's performance is supported by macroeconomic improvements and increased investor interest in AI-related stocks [17][21]. 2. Comparison of U.S. and Chinese AI Industries - The U.S. maintains a lead in AI due to early investments and advancements in foundational research and chip technology, while China is rapidly catching up through policy support and a rich application landscape [24][28]. - Chinese companies are narrowing the performance gap with innovative models and open-source strategies, which are expected to enhance their competitive edge [24][30]. 3. AI Applications Across Industries - The report categorizes AI applications into various sectors, including advertising, content generation, e-commerce, and education, highlighting their transformative potential [11][47]. - AI's integration into advertising is particularly emphasized, with advancements in content generation and targeted ad placements driving efficiency and effectiveness [47][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Alibaba, Meitu, Kuaishou, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI revolution [9][12]. - It suggests that the ongoing evolution of foundational AI models will facilitate broader application across industries, leading to significant investment opportunities [9][12].

Group 1: Middle East Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalations[5] - The potential for localized control or conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global shipping and energy supply[6] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade of the Strait could lead to a supply gap of approximately 12.7% of global oil demand[6] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25% compared to pre-conflict levels[6] - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest exposure to risks from Middle Eastern energy supplies[7] - The chemical industry will be directly impacted, with disruptions likely to affect downstream sectors such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[8] Group 3: China's Response and Strategies - China must diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, particularly in energy and chemicals[8] - Key products at risk include liquefied propane and butane (50.5% reliance), crude oil and asphalt (48.2%), and various chemical compounds (42.4%)[8] - The report suggests enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring alternative import channels from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[73]

分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 能持续修复吗? 2025年7月18日 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2 月以来核心 CPI 增速持续修复, 6 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%,涨幅比上月 扩大 0.1 个百分点,创近 14个月以来新高。我们认为,金饰品价格上行、以 旧换新政策对耐用商品价格的支撑以及服务价格温和回升是核心 CPI 持续修 复的主因。展望下半年,金价现处于阶段性高位,短期震荡为主,走高或仍需 等待因素催化;受制于部分耐用品需求提前释放以及高基数效应影响,耐用商 品价格或先走高后小幅回落;服务价格修复仍有空间,但动能或将偏缓。整体 而言,三季度核心 CPI 同比增速在耐用消费品和暑期出行需求支撑下或将继 续回升,四季度可能出 ...

□国银河证券|CGS 全球 AI 竞速，重视海外映射+国内创新 AI 系列深度报告 | 传媒互联网行业分析师：岳铮 研究助理：祁天睿 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 ·传媒互联网行业 全球 AI 竞速、重视海外映射+国内创新 AI 系列深度报告 2025年7月18日 核心观点 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | | EPS | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 9988.HK 阿里巴巴-W | | 6.70 | 7.29 | 8.36 | 9.10 | 15.48 | 14.22 | 12.40 | 11.40 | | 1357.HK | 美图公司 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 52.04 | 52.04 | 39.03 | 29. ...

宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 能持续修复吗? 2025年7月18日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2 月以来核心 CPI 增速持续修复, 6 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%,涨幅比上月 扩大 0.1 个百分点,创近 14个月以来新高。我们认为,金饰品价格上行、以 旧换新政策对耐用商品价格的支撑以及服务价格温和回升是核心 CPI 持续修 复的主因。展望下半年,金价现处于阶段性高位,短期震荡为主,走高或仍需 等待因素催化;受制于部分耐用品需求提前释放以及高基数效应影响,耐用商 品价格或先走高后小幅回落;服务价格修复仍有空间,但动能或将偏缓。整体 而言,三季度核心 CPI 同比增速在耐用消费品和暑期出行需求支撑下或将继 续回升,四季度可能出 ...

9 中国银河证券|CGS and the production and the start of the comment of the works of the world of the works of the 中东局势不确定性将如何影响全球产业链? 首席经济学家:章俊 研究助理:李沁蔓、田冀霖 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全球产业链系列专题研究报告 中东局势不确定性将如何影响全球产业链? 2025年7月18日 核心观点 中东局势与市场观点: ● 近年来,中东地区地缘局势不确定性高企。当前部分冲突虽阶段性降温. 但区 域内结构性矛盾依然存在,外溢风险仍不可忽视。市场普遍认为,不稳定局势 仍将带来能源市场波动并引发供应风险,但现有研究更多剖析冲突下的能源价 格走势与短期航运威胁。本报告将系统分析中东局势的延续与升级对全球供应 链的潜在中长期影响,旨在为产业与政策层提供前瞻性判断与应对建议。 本文围绕中东局势对全球供应链的中长期影响展开系统研判: ® 我们认为,尽管霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁的可能性较低,伊朗对该海峡的控制力 仍是全球 ...

Group 1: Middle East Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalation[5] - The potential for localized control or conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global shipping and energy supply[6] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade of the Strait could lead to a supply gap of approximately 12.7% of global oil demand[6] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25% compared to pre-conflict levels[6] - Affected oil transport includes 9.7% for China, 3-4% for India, Japan, and South Korea, and 1.5% for Europe[6] - The energy and chemical sectors will face immediate impacts, which will transmit to transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[7] Group 3: Regional Economic Dependencies - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are most exposed to risks from Middle Eastern energy supplies[7] - In 2025 Q1, China imported 5.4 million barrels per day from the Strait, highlighting its dependency[47] - European and American reliance on the Strait is decreasing, but they remain vulnerable in high-tech supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors[55] Group 4: Recommendations for China - China should diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on the Middle East, such as energy and chemicals[8] - The report suggests enhancing domestic production capabilities in sectors like fertilizers and energy chemicals to reduce dependency[8] - Exploring alternative import channels from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil is recommended to mitigate supply risks[73]