Group 1: Deposit Migration Identification - Deposit migration is identified when the growth rate of resident deposits declines for more than three consecutive months and is lower than the M2 growth rate[1] - Historical data shows that since 1996, there have been seven rounds of deposit migration in China[1] Group 2: Types of Deposit Migration - The seven rounds of deposit migration can be categorized into three types: institutional reform-triggered, yield-chasing, and confidence-restoration[2] - The second and third rounds were driven by institutional reforms, with significant capital market reforms occurring during these periods[2] Group 3: Economic Context and Asset Performance - During institutional reform-triggered periods, both stock and real estate markets experienced significant increases, while interest rates and long-term bond yields rose sharply[4] - In yield-chasing periods, stock market gains were limited, but the real estate market saw notable increases, with long-term bond yields rising moderately[4] Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent financial data indicates a significant increase in non-bank deposits year-on-year, while resident deposits have decreased sharply[3] - The current macroeconomic policy shift aims to stabilize economic downturn risks, which may lead to a confidence restoration type of deposit migration[4]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - The global major asset performance from August 18 to August 22, 2025, showed a mixed trend, with US stocks experiencing volatility while other markets performed better[38] - The US stock market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices narrowed their declines amid tech stock volatility[38] Group 2: Commodity Markets - The gold market remains under pressure due to fluctuating investor sentiment and geopolitical risks, impacting demand and pricing[2] - The oil market is influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and global economic recovery signals, with inventory levels affecting price stability[2] Group 3: Bond Market - US Treasury yields are expected to slightly decline in the coming quarters, with current levels facing limited adjustment due to mixed economic signals[18] - The Chinese bond market saw an upward adjustment in yields across various maturities, driven by reduced liquidity expectations and a shift in market sentiment[19] Group 4: Currency Market - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend, decreasing from 98.15 to 97.72, reflecting a 0.12% decline due to weak retail sales data and market expectations of interest rate cuts[23] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the medium to long term, influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and China's economic recovery signals[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jiangsu Bank [1][4]. Core Views - Jiangsu Bank has shown steady performance with an increase in revenue growth, achieving operating income of 44.864 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.238 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year [4]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% as of June 2025, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous quarter, marking a historical low [4]. - The bank's net interest income reached 32.939 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 19.1% year-on-year, driven by strong asset scale growth [4]. - The bank is focusing on expanding its retail business and wealth management, with retail assets under management (AUM) increasing by 14.39% year-to-date [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Jiangsu Bank's H1 2025 operating income was 44.864 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.238 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year. The annualized weighted average ROE was 15.64%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 9.38% and 7.95% year-on-year, respectively [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio was 0.84% as of June 2025, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter. The ratio of loans under scrutiny was 1.24%, down 9 basis points [4]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 331.02%, indicating a strong risk mitigation level [4]. Business Expansion - The bank's total loans increased by 15.98% year-to-date, with corporate loans growing by 23.3% and retail loans by 3.07% [4]. - The bank's deposits increased by 19.86% year-to-date, with corporate and personal deposits growing by 22.2% and 15.25%, respectively [4]. Investment Outlook - The report forecasts a steady growth trajectory for Jiangsu Bank, with projected BVPS of 14.16 yuan, 15.67 yuan, and 17.29 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable price-to-book ratio [4][42].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant divergence among its three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.89%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gaining 0.45% during the week from August 18 to August 22, 2025 [2][4]. - In terms of sector performance, six industries rose while five fell. The leading sectors included consumer discretionary, information technology, and consumer staples, which increased by 2.46%, 2.10%, and 0.96% respectively. Conversely, materials, energy, and utilities saw declines of 2.42%, 1.96%, and 1.50% respectively [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 280.46 billion, an increase of HKD 23.61 billion from the previous week, while the average daily short-selling amount rose to HKD 32.33 billion, accounting for 11.61% of the total trading volume [11][15]. Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 11.54 times and 1.2 times, respectively, indicating that they are at the 85th percentile level since 2019. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.77 times and 3.13 times, respectively, at the 22nd and 67th percentiles [15][26]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.4%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average, indicating a low-risk appetite among investors [17][23]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with better-than-expected interim performance, sectors benefiting from favorable policies such as the AI industry chain, and high-dividend stocks that can provide stable returns amid uncertainties [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. (吉电股份) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 726 million yuan, down 33.72% year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 10% [3] - The stable profitability of thermal power is highlighted, while the performance is dragged down by new energy and asset impairment losses [3] - The company has a clean energy installed capacity of 11.35 million kilowatts, with a focus on wind power projects, indicating a strategic shift towards quality over quantity in new energy development [3] - The successful launch of the green ammonia project marks the beginning of the company's green hydrogen-based energy platform [3] - The company plans to change its name to reflect its focus on green energy, which aligns with its current business structure and future development priorities [3] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown includes coal power (2.212 billion yuan), wind power (1.537 billion yuan), solar power (1.941 billion yuan), heating (714 million yuan), and other operations (165 million yuan) [3] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 29.12%, 46.93%, 40.27%, -21.19%, and 14.20% respectively [3] - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 1.030 billion yuan, 1.312 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.73x, 14.70x, and 13.21x [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 19.35 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.24 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 48.57% [5]. - The company is focusing on business expansion and cost control, which has positively impacted its net profit. However, the non-recurring gains have led to a decline in the net profit after deducting non-recurring items [5]. - The company has made significant improvements in its qualifications and capabilities in the inspection and testing certification field, covering various sectors such as construction, transportation, and environment [5]. - The company is actively planning an equity incentive program and has completed a share buyback, acquiring 6,124,910 shares at an average price of 16.36 yuan per share [5]. - The acquisition of 100% equity in Shanghai Investment Consulting Group is expected to enhance the company's consulting service capabilities and market reach [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 41.52 billion yuan, 43.00 billion yuan, 45.00 billion yuan, and 48.00 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenue growth rates of 3.54%, 3.58%, 4.65%, and 6.67% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.43 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan, 3.77 billion yuan, and 4.00 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 8.49%, 4.36%, 5.43%, and 6.19% respectively [6][7]. - The report indicates a diluted EPS of 0.84 yuan, 0.87 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 0.98 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.63, 22.64, 21.48, and 20.22 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yongxing Materials [3] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining lithium prices and weak downstream demand in the steel sector. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Jiangxi was 70,600 CNY/ton in the first half of 2025, a 32% year-on-year decrease [8] - Despite the challenges, the company has demonstrated excellent cost control, which has mitigated some of the adverse effects of price declines. The sales model has shifted to a combination of spot and futures sales to reduce the impact of price volatility [8] - The company is a leading player in lithium mica in China, maintaining market share during industry downturns and actively pursuing integrated expansion in mining and metallurgy to enhance resource security [8] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 80.74 billion CNY in 2024 to 76.71 billion CNY in 2025, with a revenue growth rate of -33.76% in 2024 and -4.98% in 2025 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 10.43 billion CNY in 2024 to 8.72 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a profit growth rate of -69.37% in 2024 and -16.43% in 2025 [2] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to decline from 18.15% in 2024 to 13.38% in 2025, with an expected recovery to 19.21% by 2027 [2] - The diluted EPS is projected to decrease from 1.94 CNY in 2024 to 1.62 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.77 CNY by 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's lithium business is under pressure due to falling lithium prices, while the cesium and rubidium salt segment supports overall performance [1][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.267 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.89%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 81.16% to 89 million yuan [4] - The cesium and rubidium salt segment saw a revenue increase of 50.43% to 708 million yuan, indicating strong performance in this area [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.61% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.62% [4] - The average price of lithium hydroxide in China fell by 26.98% year-on-year to 67,385.47 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [4] - The lithium battery raw material segment's revenue decreased by 17.84% to 1.307 billion yuan, with gross profit down 74.82% to 142 million yuan [4] Business Segment Performance - The cesium and rubidium salt segment's gross profit increased by 50.15% to 511 million yuan, with the fine chemical business contributing significantly [4] - The company is enhancing its lithium salt production capacity through technological upgrades and new projects, aiming for a total capacity of 418,000 tons/year of lithium concentrate and 71,000 tons/year of battery-grade lithium salt [4][5] - The company is making progress in its copper and multi-metal strategic layout, with ongoing projects in Zambia and Namibia [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the equity market has reached new highs, with strong performance from high volatility strategies [1] - The report provides updates on convertible bond quantitative strategies, including low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity strategies, showcasing their respective performances and adjustments [2][3] Group 1: Strategy Performance and Recommendations - The low-price enhancement strategy recorded a performance of 3.5% during the last period (8.5-8.18), while the improved dual-low strategy and high-price high-elasticity strategy achieved 3% and 6.8% respectively, against a benchmark of 4% [2] - Year-to-date performances for these strategies are 13.5%, 26.4%, and 48.5%, respectively, with significant excess returns of -2.2%, 10.7%, and 32.8% compared to the benchmark of 15.7% [2] - The report notes that the equity market saw a rapid rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, and the Wande All A and Zhongzheng convertible bonds increasing by 5.6% and 4% respectively [2] Group 2: Low-Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings for the low-price enhancement strategy include newly added convertible bonds such as Muyuan Convertible Bond (Agriculture), Hangyang Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals), and Huayuan Convertible Bond (Pharmaceuticals) [2][10] - The rationale for adjustments in the low-price enhancement strategy is based on the rapid rise in the equity market, with a focus on companies showing growth in interim reports [2][10] Group 3: Improved Dual-Low Strategy - The improved dual-low strategy's latest holdings include new entries like Baichuan Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Jintian Convertible Bond (Non-ferrous Metals) [2][18] - Adjustments were made due to the dual-low style index's weaker performance compared to the benchmark, with a focus on companies with good interim performance [2][20] Group 4: High-Price High-Elasticity Strategy - The high-price high-elasticity strategy has seen a performance of 6.77% in the last period, significantly outperforming the benchmark [26] - Year-to-date performance for this strategy stands at 48.52%, with an excess return of 32.82% compared to the benchmark [26] - The strategy focuses on high-priced, low-premium convertible bonds, with adjustments made to maintain a balanced industry allocation [22][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The downstream industries are experiencing favorable conditions, and innovation in research and development is expected to support sustainable growth for the company [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 168 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.35 million yuan, up 14.33% year-on-year [7]. - The company is actively involved in various projects in the energy and water conservancy sectors, which are driving its revenue growth [7]. - The company's gross margin remains high at 54.38%, and it has invested 14.66 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 7.58% of its revenue [7]. - A dividend distribution plan has been announced, with a cash dividend of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling an expected distribution of 24.72 million yuan [7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 89.58 million yuan, 103.13 million yuan, and 123.25 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 54, 47, and 40 [7][9]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 356.80 million yuan in 2024 to 522.14 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 8.57%, 13.83%, 12.44%, and 14.34% for the respective years [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 77.02 million yuan in 2024 to 123.25 million yuan in 2027, with profit growth rates of 5.99%, 16.32%, 15.12%, and 19.51% [2][9]. - The company's EPS is expected to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2024 to 0.74 yuan in 2027 [2][9].