Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

宏观动态报告 利润增速压力显现 —— 2025 年 1-11 月工业企业利润分析 2025 证 12 证 27 证 分析师 张迪 证zhangdi _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 12 证 27 证证证证证证证证证证 1证11 证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 66268.6 证证证证证证证 0.1% 证证证 1.9% 证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证 125.34 证证证 证证证证证 1.6% 证证证 1.8% 证证11 证证证 证证 证证 证证 13.1 % 证证证 -5.5% 证证 ⚫ 低基数效应减弱和 生产端 、利润率 的下滑 是利润 增速收窄 的主要原因。 一 方面，低基数效应对读数的修复 作用 进一步 减弱 ，2024 证 11 证证证证证 证证 ...

Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The report outlines 21 financial support measures to enhance the construction of the "New Corridor" through six core initiatives[8] - The first initiative focuses on improving the financial organization collaboration system to enhance service quality and efficiency[4] - The second initiative aims to build a high-quality capital circulation system to alleviate funding bottlenecks in infrastructure and logistics[4] Group 2: Economic Development Goals - The "New Corridor" is expected to facilitate the formation of a new pattern of opening up, linking land and sea, and promoting mutual assistance between the east and west[8] - It aims to support the western development strategy by transforming the region from an open laggard to a frontier of openness[18] - The corridor integrates various transportation modes, covering 127 countries and regions with 583 ports, enhancing trade connectivity[13] Group 3: Financial Innovations and Reforms - The report emphasizes the need for institutional reforms to optimize the capital settlement system, including simplifying cross-border trade settlement processes[39] - It highlights the construction of digital financial service platforms to support the intelligent transformation of corridor finance[5] - The establishment of a comprehensive financial service platform, "Central Bank West Land-Sea Intelligent Integration," is proposed to enhance financial data sharing and service efficiency[45] Group 4: Risk Management and Challenges - The report identifies risks related to inadequate policy understanding and potential delays in policy implementation[55] - It stresses the importance of cross-province and cross-border financial regulatory cooperation to mitigate financial risks associated with the corridor[52]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2025.12.25） 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-12-25 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美"到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 12 月 25 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为+ 0.86%，收于 1,457.96 点。北证 50 指 数开盘点位为 1,443.89 点，最高点位达 1,466.29 点，最低点位为 1,440.8 ...

ESG 专题报告 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 银河 ESG 评级体系及研究 核心观点 2025 年 12 月 25 日 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 2.【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合策 略新径 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 银河 ESG 评级体系目标是聚焦 ESG 底层数据与股价波动、公司基本面表 现的相关性分析，为市场参与方提供兼具参考价值与实操意义的评级依 据。评级过程严格遵循"自主、公开、完备、可比、时效、风控"六大核心准 则，保障评级规范性与结果公正性。覆盖范围全面囊括全部 A 股上市公司， 并基于投资端需求细分 31 个行业，实现行业内与跨行业的可比分析。指标架 构采用四层穿透式逻辑架构，构建维度间相互支撑、逻辑贯通的指标体系，确 保评级维度的全面性与系统性。评级矩阵由 ESG 专业研究团队与 ...

Group 1: U.S. AI Initiatives - The U.S. government has launched the "U.S. Tech Force" program to mobilize national AI capabilities, involving agencies like OPM, OMB, GSA, and OSTP[7] - The program includes 28 initial private sector partners such as Adobe, Amazon Web Services, and AMD, with plans for further expansion[7] - This initiative reflects a broader trend of nations reorganizing resources as AI evolves from an industrial tool to a foundational national capability[10] Group 2: Global AI Developments - China is focusing on AI, computing power, and data as key components of its "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a consensus on digital economic development[3] - The EU is advancing its AI governance framework, with a focus on enforceable regulations and expanding computational power[20] - Other countries, including South Korea and Japan, are enhancing their AI and semiconductor competitiveness through national capital and institutional tools[22][23] Group 3: AI Governance and Infrastructure - The U.S. is moving towards a unified AI governance framework, with federal oversight of AI regulation marking a new phase in governance[17] - The expansion of AI infrastructure in Europe is characterized by a dual approach of sovereign power and commercial capital[21] - AI safety and data governance are transitioning from principles to actionable tools, indicating a systematic approach to regulation[15]

Economic Overview - GDP is projected to grow from 29.83 trillion to 31.10 trillion from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025[3] - The GDP growth rates for Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 are forecasted at -0.6% and 3.8% respectively, indicating fluctuations in economic performance[3] Sector Performance - The services sector is expected to increase from 20.35 trillion in Q4 2024 to 21.11 trillion in Q3 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% in Q3 2025[3] - The manufacturing sector shows a modest growth from 6.39 trillion to 6.55 trillion, with a growth rate of 3.1% in Q3 2025[3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is projected to rise by 4.3% in Q3 2025, indicating inflationary pressures[3] - Consumer spending is expected to grow steadily, with a forecasted increase of 3.9% in Q3 2025[3] Investment Trends - Business investments are anticipated to recover, with a growth rate of 2.2% in Q3 2025, following a decline in previous quarters[3] - The construction sector is projected to see a growth of 3.7% in Q3 2025, reflecting increased infrastructure spending[3]

行业月报 ·建筑行业 推动投资止跌回稳,着力稳定房地产市场 核心观点 2025年12月23日 建筑行业 推荐 维持 分析师 龙天光 ☎：021-2025-2646 网：longtianguang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519060004 2025-12-22 相对沪深 300 表现图 -10% -20% 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 推动投资止跌回稳,高质量推进城市更新。1-11月,全国固定资产投资(不 0 含农户）444035 亿元,同比下降 2.6%,增速降幅较 1-10 月扩大 0.9pct。中 央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议提出 2026 年要坚持内 需主导,建设强大国内市场。推动投资止跌回稳,适当增加中央预算内投资规 模,优化实施"两重"项目,优化地方政府专项债券用途管理,继续发挥新型 政策性金融工具作用,有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。我国城 镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期,城市发展正从 ...

2025年12月23日 建筑行业 行业月报 ·建筑行业 推动投资止跌回稳,着力稳定房地产市场 核心观点 推荐 维持 分析师 龙天光 ☎：021-2025-2646 网：longtianguang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519060004 2025-12-22 相对沪深 300 表现图 -10% -20% 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 推动投资止跌回稳,高质量推进城市更新。1-11月,全国固定资产投资(不 0 含农户）444035 亿元,同比下降 2.6%,增速降幅较 1-10 月扩大 0.9pct。中 央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议提出 2026 年要坚持内 需主导,建设强大国内市场。推动投资止跌回稳,适当增加中央预算内投资规 模,优化实施"两重"项目,优化地方政府专项债券用途管理,继续发挥新型 政策性金融工具作用,有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。我国城 镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期,城市发展正从 ...

金融工程 · 专题报告 研究助理：童诗倍 ：tongshibei_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1. 【银河金工】宏观经济周期划分下的 ETF 配置方 法 基于 QRF 分布预测的科技类 ETF 轮动策略 —— ETF 策略系列 2025 年 12 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 马普凡 ：021-68597610 ：mapufan_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040002 2. 【银河金工】结合价格动量和拥挤度的两融 ETF 交易策略探索 3. 【银河金工】行业轮动模型在行业及主题 ETF 配 置上的应用 4. 【银河金工】ETF 策略系列：结合二阶随机占优 的资金流向 ETF 行业配置策略 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 科技大类行业 ETF 发展迅猛，轮动效应显著，为轮动策略实施奠定基础： 行业主题 ETF 在 2025 年迎来爆发式增长，整体规模首次突破万亿元，其中 科技与制造大类在数量和规模上均居领先地位，反映出市场对 " 新质生产 力"板 ...