策略研究 · 周度报告 美联储降息落地，恒生科技领涨全球权益指数 2025 年 09 月 21 日 核心观点： 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2025-06-27，2025 年大类资产中期投资展望：驭变谋 势 2025-06-22，2025 年港股中期投资展望：时移世易， 见机而作 2025-06-21，2025 年 A 股中期投资展望：筑基行稳， 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10，稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化？ 2025-05-07，关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读： 持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面？ 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号？ 2025-04-08，汇金入市，坚定看多 2025-04-03，港股 2025 年二季度投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major construction companies including China State Construction, China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction [4][5]. Core Insights - The construction industry is transitioning from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing stock, with urban renewal efforts expected to intensify during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to an urbanization rate exceeding 70% by the end of the plan [8][11]. - Major engineering projects are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth, with significant infrastructure projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the New Three Gorges Navigation Channel supporting the industry [8][11]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of digitalization and industrialization in the construction sector, with AI and BIM technologies driving efficiency and quality improvements [8][32][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: High-Quality Development - The construction industry is expected to maintain a GDP contribution of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a target of 40% for prefabricated buildings by 2030 [17][19]. - The focus will be on quality and safety, with a shift towards green and sustainable practices [16][17]. Section 2: Focus on Overseas Expansion, Digitalization, and Industrialization - The global industrial transfer is expected to boost overseas infrastructure demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, where construction needs are significant [22][23]. - Chinese construction companies are leading in international contracting, with 81 firms listed among the top 250 global contractors, accounting for 24.6% of total international revenue [27][28]. - Digital transformation is becoming a key driver for efficiency, with a low penetration rate of digital technologies in the construction sector compared to developed countries [36][37]. Section 3: Urban Renewal and Major Projects - Urban renewal is a major trend, with government initiatives aimed at improving living conditions and infrastructure [52]. - The report outlines eight key tasks for urban renewal, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and the enhancement of urban infrastructure [52]. Section 4: Industrial Digitalization and Growth - The construction industry is expected to leverage digital technologies to enhance productivity and reduce costs, with AI and BIM playing significant roles [32][38]. - The adoption of construction robots is anticipated to improve efficiency significantly, with robots outperforming human labor in various tasks [41][48].

Group 1: Market Development Strategy - The construction of a unified national market has entered a new phase of "in-depth promotion," emphasizing systemic, holistic, and coordinated approaches[6] - The strategic significance of this initiative is understood from both micro and macro perspectives, aiming to reconstruct production functions and enhance strategic advantages[11][14] - The transition from "five unifications and one elimination" to "five unifications and one opening" marks a shift from tactical responses to strategic institutional restructuring[24][25] Group 2: Key Policies and Actions - The "five unifications" include unifying market basic systems, infrastructure, government behavior standards, market regulation enforcement, and resource markets, while continuously expanding both domestic and foreign openness[9][24] - The "six focuses" aim to address persistent issues and promote the construction of a unified national market, including tackling low-price disorderly competition[34] - The government emphasizes the need to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation to facilitate the free flow and efficient allocation of resources[51] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - "Involution" competition is identified as a major obstacle to the construction of a unified national market, necessitating institutional innovation to reshape market economic operations[51] - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to address the causes of involution, including supply-demand imbalances and local government competition[52][55] - The establishment of a fair and transparent market environment is crucial for stabilizing development expectations and promoting sustainable economic growth[15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the communication industry is experiencing a transformation driven by policy support for technological innovation, focusing on four key areas that empower new productivity [4][6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has elevated the strategic positioning of technology from innovation-driven development to self-reliance and strength in technology, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" expected to further enhance this focus [6][8] - The communication industry's main growth drivers include optimized capital expenditure structures from operators and the rapid development of artificial intelligence, which is expected to enhance the industry's growth potential [6][11] Summary by Sections 1. Technology-Driven Development and New Productivity Foundation - The report outlines that the continuity of policy support for technology innovation is crucial for the development of new productivity, which is seen as a strategic initiative to overcome development bottlenecks [8][11] - The focus on new productivity emphasizes the integration of strategic emerging industries and future industries, aiming for high-quality development driven by innovation [11][12] 2. Communication Industry Overview - The communication industry is witnessing significant improvements in revenue quality, with a notable increase in inventory levels indicating tighter supply of raw materials [15][58] - Revenue growth in the light communication sector is leading, while the cyclical impact of operator capital expenditure is gradually weakening [58] 3. Operators: Quality Improvement and Innovation - Operators are undergoing continuous reforms, enhancing their roles as "chain leaders" in the industry, with a focus on strategic emerging industries [6][58] - The capital expenditure is increasingly directed towards intelligent computing, which is expected to generate new growth [6][58] 4. Intelligent Computing Demand Growth - The intelligent computing sector is experiencing a significant rise, with the hardware and software capabilities expected to improve substantially [6][58] - The light communication chain is benefiting from this growth, indicating a bright future for the industry [6][58] 5. Satellite Internet: Accelerated Network Development - The report notes that the development of low-orbit satellite networks is accelerating, supported by government policies [6][58] - The satellite industry chain is thriving, with active advancements in space computing [6][58] 6. Quantum Technology: Ongoing Exploration - The quantum information industry is showing high growth potential, with the market size for quantum communication expected to continue rising [6][58] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on operators, light communication, quantum communication, and satellite internet sectors as key investment areas [6][58]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0%, maintaining stability compared to the previous value of 0%[2] - The combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9%, slightly down from 9.3% in the previous period, indicating a small decline in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue growth was primarily supported by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4%, up from 20.7% previously, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% compared to 62.5% earlier[5] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, representing a 165% increase year-on-year and a nearly 35% increase month-on-month[15] - Non-tax revenue growth declined to 1.5%, significantly lower than the five-year average growth rate of 10.4%[10] Government Debt and Expenditure - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year[20] - The expenditure growth rate for the first account was 3.1%, down from 3.4%, while the monthly year-on-year growth rate was 0.8%, a decrease from 3%[20] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with a growth rate of -5% for the four major infrastructure categories, while social security and education expenditures maintained stable growth rates of 10% and 5.6%, respectively[20] Land Revenue and Market Conditions - Government fund revenue from land sales continued to show seasonal lows, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% from January to August, worsening from -0.7% previously[17] - In August, land transfer revenue was 231.3 billion yuan, down from 267.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.7%[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand indicators[17]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0% (previous value 0%) while the combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9% (previous value 9.3%) indicating stable revenue and a slight slowdown in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue improvement was primarily driven by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4% (previous value 20.7%), with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% (previous value 62.5%)[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 165% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong market activity[15] Government Fund and Land Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% (previous value -0.7%), with land transfer revenue in August amounting to 231.3 billion yuan (previous value 267.9 billion yuan) and a cumulative growth rate of -4.7% (previous value -4.6%) indicating seasonal low performance[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand[17] Debt Issuance and Expenditure Dynamics - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, representing a progress rate of 66.4%, which is lower than the previous year's rate by 1.9 percentage points[20] - Expenditure growth for the first account was 3.1% (previous value 3.4%), while the second account's expenditure growth rate was 30% (previous value 31.7%) indicating a slight decline in expenditure growth due to the slowdown in special bond issuance[21] Economic Risks - Risks include the potential for domestic economic recovery to fall short of expectations, policy implementation delays, and significant weaknesses in the real estate market[23]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant downturn in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August to 5.3%[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year's 17.1%[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Longking Environmental [2] Core Views - The report highlights the high profitability potential of the Congo (DRC) hydropower projects, specifically the Kailangeng hydropower station and the Mami Cuo energy station [5] - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 11.64 billion, 14.25 billion, and 16.66 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.33x, 11.70x, and 10.01x [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 10,019.42 million - 2025E: 11,807.95 million (17.85% growth) - 2026E: 13,221.30 million (11.97% growth) - 2027E: 14,701.36 million (11.19% growth) [6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 830.40 million - 2025E: 1,163.96 million (40.17% growth) - 2026E: 1,425.03 million (22.43% growth) - 2027E: 1,666.14 million (16.92% growth) [6] - **Gross Margin**: - Expected to remain stable around 25% from 2024 to 2027, with slight increases [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.65 - 2025E: 0.92 - 2026E: 1.12 - 2027E: 1.31 [6] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024A: 20.08 - 2025E: 14.33 - 2026E: 11.70 - 2027E: 10.01 [6] Project Highlights - **Kailangeng Hydropower Project**: - Investment of approximately 3.99 billion USD (28.42 billion RMB) - Expected annual generation of 714 million kWh with a high utilization rate of 5,100 hours [5] - Power purchase agreements ensure 90% of electricity is sold to Zijin Mining at a competitive rate of approximately 0.16 USD/kWh [5] - **Mami Cuo Energy Station**: - Expected to begin operations in Q2 2026 with a competitive settlement price of 0.7 RMB/kWh - The project aims to support lithium-boron mining operations in a remote area [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Longking Environmental [2] Core Views - The report highlights the high profitability of the Congo (DRC) hydropower projects, specifically the Kailangeng hydropower station and the Mami Cuo energy station, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profits [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from its strategic investments in clean energy and environmental protection, with a strong pipeline of projects and contracts [5][6] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,019.42 million, 11,807.95 million, 13,221.30 million, and 14,701.36 million respectively, with a revenue growth rate of -8.69% in 2024, followed by 17.85%, 11.97%, and 11.19% in the subsequent years [6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 830.40 million, 1,163.96 million, 1,425.03 million, and 1,666.14 million, with profit growth rates of 63.15%, 40.17%, 22.43%, and 16.92% respectively [6] - **Key Ratios**: The projected PE ratios for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 20.08, 14.33, 11.70, and 10.01 respectively, indicating a decreasing trend in valuation multiples as earnings grow [6][7] Project Highlights - **Kailangeng Hydropower Project**: The project has a total investment of approximately 3.99 billion USD, with an expected annual generation of 714 million kWh and a high utilization rate of 5,100 hours per year. The electricity price for mining operations is around 0.16 USD/kWh [5] - **Mami Cuo Energy Station**: This project is expected to have a competitive electricity settlement price of 0.7 RMB/kWh and is projected to generate an average annual output of 761 million kWh [5] Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of environmental protection and new energy, with significant contracts in hand and a strong market position in the environmental sector [5][6] - The integration of energy production, storage, and consumption in remote areas is expected to enhance the stability and profitability of the company's projects [5]