Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing an upward cycle driven by AI, with an acceleration in domestic production processes [1] - The report highlights significant price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash, with DRAM prices expected to rise over 60% in Q1 2026, leading to a projected annual market value of $404.3 billion, a 144% increase [5] - NAND Flash prices are anticipated to grow by 55-60% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a global market value of $147.3 billion in 2026, a 112% year-on-year growth [5] - Major companies like SanDisk and Texas Instruments are reporting substantial revenue growth, with SanDisk's Q2 revenue reaching $3.025 billion, up 61% year-on-year, and Texas Instruments' Q4 revenue at $4.423 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [5] - ASML's financial performance is strong, with a net sales figure of €9.7 billion in Q4 2025 and an expected annual net sales range of €34-39 billion for 2026 [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, and Lanke Technology due to improving performance driven by rising storage prices [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.08%, while the electronic sector declined by 2.51%, with the semiconductor industry down by 0.90% [5] Digital Chip Design - Trendforce forecasts a significant increase in DRAM prices and market value, indicating a robust demand in the digital chip design sector [5] Analog Chip Design - Texas Instruments reported a mixed performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10% in Q4 2025, highlighting the resilience of the analog chip market [5] Semiconductor Equipment - ASML's strong order book and sales figures indicate a healthy demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly EUV lithography machines [5] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI investments from leading internet companies, suggesting that this trend will continue to drive semiconductor demand and performance [5]

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

北交所日报 北交所日报（2026.01.30） 2026 年 01 月 30 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-01-30 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美美到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 1 月 30 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.29%，收于 1,531.55 点。同日，北证 专精特新指数收于 2,571.08 点，涨跌幅为-0.29%；上证指数收于 ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, the A-share market showed a growth style dominance with structural differentiation, where the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 indices rose over 10%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw gains exceeding 5%, while the ChiNext and Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 3%[4] Investment Themes - The trading focus in January continued to revolve around "growth stocks and cyclical stocks," driven by technological upgrades in AI, semiconductor equipment, and commercial aerospace sectors[4] - Geopolitical factors led to rising international precious metal prices, benefiting cyclical sectors like copper and aluminum, as well as strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths[4] February Market Outlook - February is expected to be a "window period" for market confidence, driven by high growth expectations in new economies and relatively abundant liquidity before the Spring Festival[4] - The market is likely to see accelerated rotation in sectors like technology and non-ferrous metals, with strong earnings reports becoming focal points[4] Key Stock Recommendations - Top stock picks for February include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) with a projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 3.37 in 2026, reflecting a strong outlook due to rising copper prices[6] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is recommended due to expected high potassium fertilizer prices, with EPS forecasted to rise from 1.03 in 2024 to 2.93 in 2026[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, commercialization outcomes falling short of expectations, and delays in product development and market entry[4]

Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 1.69%, closing at 1,536.00 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 29.703 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 4.79%[1] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange was 937.031 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.083 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+30.0%), Media (+19.8%), and Food & Beverage (+5.1%) on the same day[1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.3%), Electric Power Equipment (-2.5%), and Social Services (-1.9%)[1] Stock Performance - Among the 291 listed companies, 85 saw an increase, 3 remained flat, and 203 experienced a decline[1] - The leading gainers included Keli Co. (+29.99%), Liujin Technology (+19.82%), and Meibang Technology (+12.70%) while the largest decliners were Nongda Technology (-12.93%), Guangxin Technology (-9.91%), and Aweite (-7.91%)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 48.50 times earnings, which is higher than the ChiNext's 45.59 times but lower than the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 79.67 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratio by sector was in Non-ferrous Metals at 140.1 times, followed by Oil & Petrochemicals at 106.2 times and Food & Beverage at 90.1 times[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][16]

纯债规模承压，杠杆久期策略分化 ——Q4 债券基金季报分析 核心观点 基金规模：债基规模回升，其中纯债基收缩。 2025 年债基规模扩张但纯债基收缩。配置上，利率债减、信用债增。全 年来看，截至 Q4，全市场公募基金总规模为 36.38 万亿元，其中债基规 模扩张 0.64 万亿元，但纯债基规模收窄 0.8 万亿元。四季度来看，在基金 规模具体变动方面，2025Q4 仅混合型基金规模较 Q3 收缩，规模回落 0.14 万亿元至 3.62 万亿元、其余类型基金均规模回升，尤其债券型基金和货 币市场型基金规模扩张幅度最大，分别增加 0.47 万亿元、0.34 万亿元至 11.03 万亿元、15.01 万亿元。在基金发行与到期方面，Q4 纯债基金（封 闭型+开放型）新发数量 11 只，发行规模为 85.45 亿元；到期数量 28 只， 到期规模为 204.98 亿元；目前来看 2026Q1 可能到期纯债基金约有 3 只， 规模在 2.82 亿元左右。券种配置方面， Q4 纯债基金的债券持仓市值占 基金总值比为 96.87%，（高于基金整体债券占比的 53.44%），相较 Q3 环比增加 0.12 个百分点，近年来整 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The pause in interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, with no signals on the timing of the next cut, emphasizing data and economic outlook assessments[2] - The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating it is expanding at a "robust" pace, while uncertainties remain high[2] - The employment market shows signs of stabilization, with the Fed removing previous language about rising downside risks in employment[2] Group 2: Future Leadership and Implications - Market predictions suggest Rieder has nearly a 50% chance of being nominated as the next Fed Chair, while Warsh's probability has dropped below 20%[2] - Trump's ideal candidate would be a loyal and credible dovish figure, but loyalty may take precedence over credibility[2] - If Rieder is nominated, the dollar index is expected to decline further, despite support for dollar assets[2] Group 3: Economic Risks and Projections - Risks include the potential for U.S. labor market and economic data to exceed expectations[6] - There is a risk of unexpected liquidity issues in the U.S. Treasury market[6] - Trump's policies may stimulate inflation beyond expectations[6] - The dollar index is projected to decline further in 2026, benefiting multinational corporate profits[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [2] Core Insights - Real estate data remains under pressure, but national subsidies and the expansion of the trade-in policy are driving a recovery in consumption. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China reached 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount reached 8393.68 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The number of transactions in 30 major cities increased by 50% year-on-year, with a transaction area growth of 38% [1][11] - The implementation of a 62.5 billion yuan national subsidy on January 1 has led to a rapid qualification exhaustion, and the trade-in policy now includes smart and elderly-friendly home products. Major companies like Mousse, Oppein, and Youban are exploring strategic development and transformation in the competitive stock market [1][69] Summary by Sections Industry Key Data Tracking - **Home Furnishing**: Real estate data remains under pressure, but the return of national subsidies is expected to boost downstream demand recovery [7] - **Packaging**: Stable downstream demand and continuous optimization of the competitive landscape [52] Industry News and Dynamics - **Home Furnishing**: Policies are driving a recovery in consumption, with leading home furnishing companies pushing for strategic transformation [69] - **Packaging**: Anti-involution measures are improving corporate difficulties, and digitalization is driving industry upgrades [70] Light Industry Performance in Capital Markets - **Industry Yield Performance**: From December 2025 to January 2026, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.66%, while the light industry manufacturing sector increased by 5.10%, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [73] - **Industry Valuation**: The valuation of the sector has slightly increased, with the PE-TTM for packaging printing, home furnishing, paper, and entertainment products at 41.74, 29.68, 32.38, and 48.91 respectively [78] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, it is recommended to focus on Oppein and Songlin Technology; for the packaging sector, attention should be on Aorijin, Yutong Technology, and Xianggang Technology; in the toy sector, focus on Pop Mart; in the paper sector, consider Jiulong Paper and Hengfeng Paper; additionally, the expansion of HNB is expected to drive high prosperity in the tobacco-related industry chain, recommending attention to China Tobacco Hong Kong [81]

工业转型规模化：2025 年高排放行业与净零转型进展 ——报告点评 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ESG 点评报告 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 6. 【银河 ESG】伊斯兰投资能否促进投资组合多元化 5. 【银河 ESG】动态投资风险比较：清洁能源与污染 能源 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 3. 【银河 E ...

公司点评报告 · 有色金属行业 收购 Allied Gold，强化黄金板块综合实力 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点 （1）马里 Sadiola 金矿一期选厂技改已基本完成，采选规模由 500 万吨/年提 升至 570 万吨/年，黄金年产量有望提升至 6.2~7.2 吨。二期投产后，项目预 计前四年平均年产金 12.4 吨，矿山生命周期内年均产金 9.3 吨，全维持成本 预计将由 25Q3 的 2,067 美元/盎司下降至 1,200 美元/盎司。 （2）科特迪瓦金矿综合体（包括 Bonikro 和 Agbaou 项目）两座金矿采选规 模均约为 250 万吨/年，拟进一步整合运营，力争实现 Bonikro 金矿年均产金 3.1 吨、Agbaou 金矿年均产金 2.7 吨的产量目标。 （3）埃塞俄比亚 Kurmuk 金矿是重要增量项目，计划于 2026 年下半年投产， 设计采选规模为 640 万吨/年，预计前四年平均年产金 9 吨，矿山生命周期内 年均产金 7.5 吨，全维持成本预计将低于 950 美元/盎司。 紫金矿业（股票代码：601899.SH） | | | 分析师 华立 ：021-2025262 ...