Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the service consumption sector, particularly in light of the government's efforts to stimulate consumer spending through various holidays and subsidies [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in service consumption during the New Year holiday, with a total of 590 million people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The introduction of a large-scale subsidy program for replacing old appliances is expected to boost consumer spending, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan (approximately 9.1 billion USD) for 2026 [4]. - Midea's decision to raise air conditioner prices is seen as a strategic move to counteract intense competition in the industry, with price increases of 2% and 4% planned for early January [4]. Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The report notes that during the New Year holiday, railway passenger volume is projected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is expected to account for 540 million people, up 15.5% [2]. - The recovery in travel is anticipated to drive growth in the cultural tourism, hotel, and restaurant sectors, making service consumption a key driver of domestic demand recovery [2]. Domestic and International Tourism - The report indicates a substantial increase in inbound tourism, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday rising by 110% year-on-year [3]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou remain popular among international tourists, while smaller cities like Dali and Xishuangbanna have seen a threefold increase in inbound visitors [3]. Government Subsidies and Industry Response - The government has initiated a subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which is expected to support consumer demand during peak seasons like the New Year and Spring Festival [4]. - Midea's price adjustments are viewed as a necessary step to improve the competitive landscape of the air conditioning industry, which has faced rising costs due to increased copper prices [4].

策略研究 · 策略周报 元旦假期事件梳理及 A 股展望 2026 年 1 月 4 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 相关研究 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投资 的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政治局会议对投资的启示 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，公募基金三季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，2025 年 11 月投资组合报告："十五五" 新蓝图与市场新机遇 2025-10-29，变局蕴机遇，驶向新蓝海——《"十五 五"规划建议》解码 A 股投资全景图 2025-10- ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - During the New Year holiday, consumer demand for travel and cinema surged, with retail sales of passenger cars showing a narrowing year-on-year decline of 19.5%[1] - In December 2025, the external demand showed an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 2315.2, reflecting a 5.1% increase[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The PMI and high-frequency data showed a divergence, with the PMI at 50.1% in December 2025, indicating no significant improvement in physical workload[1] - The production impact of the late Spring Festival in 2026 was minimal, with the production index showing a 3.42 percentage point increase compared to November 2025[1] Price Performance - CPI showed fluctuations in pork prices and a continuous rise in fruit prices, with a 0.43% increase noted[2] - PPI indicated a weakening in crude oil prices while non-ferrous metal prices showed volatility, with WTI at 1.77%[2] Fiscal Policy - In January 2026, local government bond issuance plans are set at 580 billion, reflecting a 104.4% increase compared to the previous year[2] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has shifted upward, with the SHIBOR 007 rate at 1.9560%, up by 51 basis points[2] Global Macro - Global financial market activity has cooled due to the New Year holiday, impacting trading volumes[2]

- The report analyzes various thematic indices, including AI, Internet, Mainland Consumption, and Mainland Low Carbon, which are constructed by selecting top 50 stocks in terms of market cap and liquidity within each theme, and are adjusted semi-annually[1][4][5] - The indices are market-cap weighted and focus on specific sectors, such as AI and Internet indices focusing on technology-related fields, Mainland Consumption covering consumer themes, and Mainland Low Carbon emphasizing low-carbon economy-related businesses[1][4][5] - The indices show concentrated industry distribution, with Mainland Low Carbon heavily weighted in the electric power equipment sector, and the Internet index concentrated in communication and computer industries[6][7][8] - The indices exhibit high concentration in terms of weight, with the top 10 stocks accounting for a significant portion of the index weight, and a high proportion of private ownership among the top indices[11][13][14] - The indices tend to include large-cap stocks, with a significant portion of the index constituents having a market cap over 100 billion[14][19][20] - The AI and Internet indices have higher PB/PE ratios, reflecting market pricing for high growth, while Mainland Consumption and Mainland Low Carbon have lower valuations, indicating a thicker valuation cushion[21][22][23] - The indices have shown strong performance, with AI, Internet, and Mainland Low Carbon indices outperforming in recent years, driven by policy and technology cycles[24][27][28] - The indices' dividend rates have been increasing annually, with Mainland Consumption showing the most significant growth, and Mainland Consumption and Mainland Low Carbon having higher dividend yields compared to AI and Internet[38][39][40] - AI and Internet indices demonstrate stronger profitability with higher revenue and net profit growth rates, while Mainland Consumption has a higher ROE[40][42][43] Index Performance Metrics - **CS Artificial Intelligence Index**: Annualized return: 12.5%, Annualized volatility: 18.3%, Sharpe ratio: 0.68, Maximum drawdown: -25.4%[27][28][36] - **Internet Index**: Annualized return: 11.8%, Annualized volatility: 17.9%, Sharpe ratio: 0.65, Maximum drawdown: -24.7%[27][28][36] - **Mainland Consumption Index**: Annualized return: 9.2%, Annualized volatility: 15.4%, Sharpe ratio: 0.60, Maximum drawdown: -22.1%[27][28][36] - **Mainland Low Carbon Index**: Annualized return: 10.3%, Annualized volatility: 16.7%, Sharpe ratio: 0.63, Maximum drawdown: -23.5%[27][28][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional materials weakening while high-demand electronic yarns support the resilience of fiberglass [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by urban renewal strategies and a shift towards high-quality green materials [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector is crucial for infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, with China leading in the production of various materials [6][7] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and digital solutions, supported by government initiatives [6][8] 2. Traditional Materials and Electronic Yarn - Cement demand remains weak, with high kiln shutdown rates and stable prices in December; a rebound is expected post-Spring Festival [10][14] - Fiberglass shows a mixed demand; traditional yarns face price stabilization while high-end electronic yarns continue to see price increases due to supply constraints [40][42] - Consumer building materials show slight improvement in retail sales, driven by year-end demand, but overall demand remains below previous years [38] 3. Market Dynamics - The building materials industry maintained a stable operation in December, with a business climate index of 102.9, indicating steady demand and production [9] - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in confidence, with a 3.66% increase in December, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [48][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - Cement companies like Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement are recommended due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [4] - For fiberglass, companies like China Jushi and China National Materials are highlighted for their strong positioning in high-demand segments [4] - Consumer building materials firms such as Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to benefit from urban renewal and quality upgrades [4]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 0.70%, closing at 1,440.43 points on December 31, 2025, with a trading volume of 206.88 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.00% [1][2][5] - The overall valuation of companies listed on the North Exchange is approximately 45.86 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of companies on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][8][9] - The most significant gainers in the North Exchange included companies in the communication sector, with a notable increase of 878.16% for the new stock Hengtong Light [1][6][7] Industry Summary - The North Exchange saw mixed performance across various industries, with the communication sector leading gains at +176.1%, while the oil and petrochemical sector faced the largest decline at -3.6% [1][2][10] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the non-ferrous metals industry was the highest at 111.4 times, followed by food and beverage at 78.6 times and communication at 77.8 times [1][8][9] - The trading activity was notably high for stocks such as Hengtong Light and Tianli Composite, which had significant turnover rates of 53.79% and 39.78%, respectively [1][6][7] Company Performance - Among the top gainers, Hengtong Light (878.16%), Tianming Technology (29.96%), and Lifan Holdings (24.94%) showed remarkable increases in stock prices [1][6] - Conversely, the largest decliners included Guandao Retreat (-21.82%), Dapeng Industry (-12.57%), and Fengguang Precision (-10.52%) [1][7] - The market capitalization of Hengtong Light reached 210.34 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 77.47 times, indicating strong investor interest [1][6]

- The report focuses on the analysis of single-market indices, including comprehensive indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index) and component indices (e.g., SSE 50, ChiNext Index), highlighting their construction principles, industry distribution, and performance characteristics [1][3][50] - Comprehensive indices aim to cover the entire market or a specific segment without subjective selection, reflecting the overall market performance through total market capitalization weighting [3][4][10] - Component indices, such as SSE 50 and ChiNext Index, are constructed by selecting representative stocks based on criteria like market capitalization, liquidity, and industry position, aiming to efficiently reflect the performance of specific stock groups [50][51][52] - Comprehensive indices exhibit "broad coverage, low concentration" characteristics, with diluted individual stock weights due to the large number of constituents, while component indices show "high concentration" in both industry and stock weights, reflecting their focus on large-cap stocks [10][57][62] - The industry distribution of comprehensive indices is relatively balanced, with traditional large-cap sectors like banking having weight advantages, whereas component indices are more concentrated in specific industries, such as technology for ChiNext and banking for SSE 50 [5][53][57] - Market valuation analysis reveals that technology-focused indices (e.g., ChiNext, STAR 50) have higher PE and PB ratios compared to market-wide indices, indicating different pricing logic for growth-oriented sectors [21][65][69] - Performance analysis shows that technology-oriented indices outperformed in 2025 due to structural market trends, but their risk-adjusted returns (e.g., Sharpe ratio) are comparable to market-wide indices due to higher volatility [23][71][83] - Dividend analysis indicates that market-wide indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Composite) have higher dividend yields compared to technology-focused indices, reflecting their composition of more mature, dividend-paying companies [41][80][87] - Profitability metrics, such as ROE and net profit growth, show that technology-focused indices generally have higher growth potential but exhibit greater volatility, while market-wide indices demonstrate more stable returns [43][89][93]

Core Insights - The report highlights a clear differentiation in the performance of growth and value indices, with growth indices showing superior profitability and elasticity, while value indices emphasize defensive characteristics and dividends [1][3][23]. Group 1: Major Large and Mid-Cap Indices - The major indices analyzed include the CSI 300 Growth Index, CSI 300 Value Index, CSI 500 Growth Index, and CSI 500 Value Index, all of which are designed to capture excess returns or enhance specific style returns [3][4]. - Growth indices are characterized by lower allocation to financials and higher allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, while value indices are the opposite, focusing more on financials and cyclical sectors [6][10]. - The CSI 300 Growth Index has a significant concentration of large-cap stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 67.1% of the index weight, indicating a strong leader effect [10][11]. Group 2: Fundamental Performance of Indices - Growth indices exhibit higher PE and PB ratios compared to value indices, reflecting market expectations for future growth, with the CSI 300 Growth Index showing a cumulative increase of over 100% [1][23]. - The annualized returns since the inception of the indices show that the CSI 500 Growth Index leads with a cumulative increase of over 150%, while the CSI 300 Value Index has a more modest increase of approximately 30% [25][39]. - Dividend yields are significantly higher in value indices, with the CSI 300 Value Index maintaining a dividend rate of 3.5%-4.5%, while growth indices show lower dividend willingness [39][41]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Distribution - The CSI 300 indices are primarily composed of large-cap stocks, with over 80% of the CSI 300 Growth Index constituents having a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion [17][20]. - The CSI 500 indices focus on mid-cap stocks, with a significant portion of constituents falling within the 10 billion to 50 billion range, highlighting the distinct characteristics of mid-cap indices [17][20]. Group 4: Shareholder Attributes - Growth indices are predominantly composed of private enterprises, while value indices are mainly represented by state-owned enterprises, indicating a divergence in shareholder characteristics [11][53].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up from 49.6%[1] - The services business activity index is slightly up at 49.7%, compared to 49.5% previously[1] Group 2: Key Drivers of PMI Increase - Policy measures have stimulated investment stabilization, with a central government investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan announced[2] - New export orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 49%, marking the first increase since March 2025[2] - The later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) has resulted in less disruption to December's physical workload compared to previous years[2] Group 3: Production and Demand Insights - The production index increased to 51.7% from 50%, while the new orders index rose to 50.8% from 49.2%[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment down 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%[3] - The construction sector, including housing and infrastructure, has shown signs of recovery, indicating effective fund allocation[3] Group 4: External Demand and Price Trends - The new export orders index has shown a significant increase, reflecting strong external demand amid global fiscal and monetary easing[4] - The producer price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[7] - The gap between raw material prices and producer prices remains significant at 4.2 percentage points[7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for biodiversity finance, highlighting the emergence of various investment products and strategies aimed at addressing biodiversity risks and opportunities [4][6]. Core Insights - The global biodiversity finance sector is entering a critical phase of standardization, with the TNFD framework becoming a recognized benchmark for natural risk management, involving 733 institutions and managing over $22 trillion in assets by 2025 [4]. - Biodiversity loss poses significant risks to macroeconomic stability, with over 50% of global GDP highly dependent on natural services, and the degradation of ecosystems leading to potential sovereign rating downgrades and increased debt burdens [9][16]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to integrate biodiversity risks into their risk management frameworks and to utilize tools like ENCORE and IBAT for portfolio risk assessments [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Biodiversity Risks - Biodiversity is a core element of natural ecosystems, essential for economic and social systems, with over 58 trillion USD of global GDP reliant on natural services [9]. - The Earth’s Vitality Index has declined by 73% since 1970, indicating a severe biodiversity loss crisis that requires urgent attention [10][14]. 2. Global Governance of Biodiversity - The governance framework for biodiversity is evolving, with the COP meetings serving as a central mechanism for international cooperation, culminating in the "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" [26][27]. - The report outlines the need for enhanced funding mechanisms and the establishment of a common classification system to facilitate biodiversity finance [6][27]. 3. Biodiversity Finance Policy Frameworks - Major regions, including the EU, UK, and China, are developing comprehensive policy frameworks to enhance biodiversity investment, with specific regulations and strategies aimed at increasing funding [6][25]. - The report highlights the importance of transparency and regulatory frameworks in promoting biodiversity finance [6][25]. 4. Current State of Biodiversity Finance - The report notes the initial development of biodiversity investment tools, with a focus on natural-related bonds and equity investments led by international asset management firms [4][6]. - The TNFD framework is evolving to enhance global standardization in biodiversity-related disclosures [4][6]. 5. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to recognize and incorporate biodiversity risks into their investment strategies, focusing on projects with stable profit mechanisms and avoiding high-risk biodiversity loss targets [4][6].