正券 CGS 行业点评报告 ·电力设备及新能源 破除光伏内卷式竞争,政策供给侧改 2025年7月2日 光伏 推荐 维持 分析师 曾韬 ☎：010-8092-7653 网：zengtao_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525030001 黄林 ☎: 010-8092-7627 网: huanglin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1、【银河电新】风光储电行业_2025 年中期投资策 略：结构分化,聚焦新技术与非美出口 0618 2、【银河电新】全国两会前瞻_新能源新动能迈向新 周期, AI+引领浪潮 250225 3、【银河电新】中央经济工作会议解读_整治"内卷 式"竞争,新能源新动能迈向新周期 241213 4、【银河电新】行业点评_新能源底部向上可期 240929 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025-7-2 0 事件:今日太阳能指数 CI005286.CI 上涨 4.1%,其中大全能源涨幅达 15.7% ...

中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

_ 136 _ 10 ___ 2 行业月报 · 公用事业行业 24Q4 行业月报 ·公用事业行业 中国银河证券|CGS 目录 Catalog | 一、 行业要闻 | | --- | | 二、 行业数据 … | | (一) 碳交易市场情况 | | (二） 电力行业相关数据………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 | | 三、 太阳能单月装机创新高，火电发电量由降转增 | | 四、 开展新型电力系统建设试点，助力新能源消纳……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 | | 五、 环保公用行业表现………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………１2 | | ...

责任编辑 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 4 日 银河观点集萃 美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观: 参议院版"大美丽法案"将赤字推上 7%——美国财政法案跟踪。 ● (1) 关税对于经济的负面冲击尚待显现,且即使 IEEPA 关税受阻,特朗普政府也 可能快速转向其他关税手段;在失业率可能温和上行、美联储仍有望在 9月开 启降息的情况下,美债收益率有进一步走低的空间。 (2)从财政角度来看, 5、6 月美国非短债的到期量并不大,且短债需求较好;季度融资会议目前给 出二、三季度的中长期国债净发行量平稳,且考虑关税后赤字扩张幅度短期仍 可控。 (3) 从更长期的角度来看, 4.5%-5.0%的长端美债收益率可能高过美 国的名义增长速度,且持续加大付息压力,因此最终不可持续,从这一角度考 虑长端利率也需要一定的降低。 通信:海洋经济政策东风劲吹,通信全方位赋能。2025年以来海洋经济催化 ● 不断,政策东风劲吹。2025年政府工作报告指出大力发展海洋经济,建设全 国海洋经济发展示范区,海洋经济 ...

Group 1: Strategic Importance of Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the marine economy's role in China's modernization, advocating for high-quality development along a "marine strong" path[5] - The meeting reiterated the importance of the marine economy following previous significant discussions, including the 20th Party Congress and the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference[7] - Five guiding principles were established to drive marine economic development: innovation, efficient collaboration, industrial upgrading, harmony between humans and the sea, and win-win cooperation[9] Group 2: Policy Framework and Focus Areas - Six key focus areas were identified for policy coordination: policy support, technological innovation, strengthening marine industries, planning for marine development, ecological protection, and global cooperation[10] - The marine economy's contribution to China's GDP is significant, with the marine service industry accounting for approximately 60% of the marine production value in 2024, which reached 10.54 trillion yuan, a 5.9% increase year-on-year[14][23] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Opportunities - The global marine economy is characterized by differentiated competition, with countries like the US, Japan, and the EU leading in various sectors such as marine fisheries and renewable energy[16] - China's marine economy shows strong momentum, with the marine second industry accounting for 35% of the marine production value, and the marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector maintaining a global market share for seven consecutive years[23][24] - Investment opportunities are identified in marine technology, renewable energy, marine biology and medicine, and marine cultural tourism, with a focus on deep-sea materials and equipment[27][29] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include inadequate understanding of domestic and international policies and potential shortcomings in policy implementation[30]

北交所日报 北交所日报(2025.07.03) 2025 年 07 月 03 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎: 010-8092-7663 网：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 2025-07-03 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 1. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 2. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 3. 【中国银河证券】Deepseek 冲击波:北交所_ 中小企业的智能化赋能 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 7 月 3 日, 北证 50 涨跌幅为+0.21%, 收于 1442.17 点。北证 50 指数 ● 开盘点位为 1441.32点，最高点位达 1445.71 点，最低点位为 1431.29 点。 同日,上证指数收于 3461.15 点,涨跌幅为+0.18%; 沪深 300 ...

Key Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience a seasonal rebound in July, driven by policy and performance factors, with a stable upward trend anticipated [3][2][1] - The focus for July is on three main lines: consumption, technology, and dividends, with growth sectors like technology expected to have good development prospects and investment opportunities [3][2][1] - The construction industry is seeing a recovery in activity, with a business activity index of 52.8% in June, indicating expansion, while fixed asset investment growth is slowing [5][6] - Infrastructure investment remains high, with broad infrastructure investment growth at 10.44% year-on-year for the first five months of the year, although narrow infrastructure investment growth is at 5.6% [6][9] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in development investment for the first five months, but policy measures are expected to improve market confidence [7][9] - The floating rate bond market is developing, with a current market size of approximately 495.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.3% of the total bond market [13][12] - The banking sector is benefiting from a supportive monetary policy environment, with expectations of continued easing and structural policy tools to support key areas like technology and consumption [20][21][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Midea Group, indicating confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth despite industry challenges [4]. Core Views - Midea Group is expected to maintain steady growth and attractive dividend yields, even as the home appliance industry faces a downturn. The company has demonstrated strong competitive advantages and a commitment to shareholder returns [4][6]. - The report highlights that Midea's revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with projected revenue growth of 7-9% and net profit growth of 10-15% for Q2 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of Midea's business model, particularly in the context of ongoing market adjustments and external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Midea Group reported revenue of 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [5]. Market Position - Midea Group's A-share price as of July 1, 2025, was 72.11 yuan, with a market capitalization of 497.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company's A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.5x for 2025, which is below its historical average, suggesting a potentially undervalued position [6]. Dividend Policy - Midea Group's dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 69% in 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% for 2025, making it attractive for income-focused investors [4][10]. Industry Outlook - The home appliance industry is anticipated to experience a gradual decline in growth rates, but Midea is expected to leverage its competitive strengths to continue growing [4]. - The report notes that Midea's industrial business, particularly in HVAC and related sectors, is showing strong growth potential, with significant opportunities in international markets [4][6].

固收研究报告 研究助理:张岩东 ☎: 15210804363 网: zhangyandong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 2025年7月2日 分析师 刘雅坤 ☎：17887940037 网: liuyakun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523100001 风险提示 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 何为浮息债?根据付息方式的不同,债券主要可分为零息债券、贴现债券、固息债券、 浮息债券、利随本清债券。浮息债券是发行时规定债券利率随某个基准市场利率定期浮 动的债券,是由有固定中长期资金需要的主体发行的一般融资工具。浮息债挂钩的基准 利率较为多元,基准利率包括 LPR, DR007 和 SHIBOR 和一年定期存款利率, 当前我 国浮息债以挂钩 DR007 和 LPR 为主。 ● 浮息债估值方法。相比固息债,浮息债估值更为复杂。关于如何进行浮息债券估值,基 本思想是采用现金流折现的方法。根据中债金融估值中心的处理方法解决案例如下。对 于这里以估价全价给出,相应的估价净公式减去对应的应 ...

国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日，10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...