行业点评报告 · 通信行业 足星移动通信牌照,卫星通信进程加速 2025 年 09 月 10 日 核心观点 除了面向大众的 To C 直连服务外,卫星运营还包括 To B 模式,即以太空算 力和"星缆计划"为代表的企业级专属服务,更侧重算力调度与数据传输等高 附加值需求。以之江实验室的三体计算星座为例,我们将其商业模式总结为三 大方向:1) 太空算力租赁服务:算力星座可作为"太空数据中心",通过星 间激光链路快速接入,为其他应用卫星提供边缘计算能力,实现太空数据"就 近处理",解决应用卫星"有星无算"的长期痛点。2)太空通信与星缆计划: 通过专属地面站与星间链路,构建"太空光纤"通道,形成低时延、高安全性 的跨域传输网络。该模式类比地面政企专线,面向云计算厂商、大型互联网等 客户,帮助其实现跨境数据传输、算力调度。其核心优势在于低延迟(星间激 光通信的传输路径更接近直线,数据传输速度更快）、安全性(规避跨境地区 安全风险）、以及经济性(使东部高需求地区能够实时调用西部低电价算力资 源),有效补足地面骨干网的短板。 3)智能数据资产变现:可将收集积累的 数据应用于农业、气象、能源、城市治理、低空积极等行业,形成 ...

宏观动态报告 CPI 低位承压, PPI 低点已过 8 月物价数据解读 2025 年 9 月 10 日 提振消费政策叠加低价竞争治理效果渐显,交通工具价格连续两个月持 ● 平:7月下旬第三批补贴资金已经下发各地,部分地区的以旧换新逐步重启, 补贴方式也更加多元化,带动需求持续回暖,支撑交通工具环比在连续五个月 下行后连续两个月价格持平。8月中旬,两部委发布《关于加强智能网联新能 源汽车产品召回、生产一致性监督管理与规范宣传的通知(征求意见稿)》, 就新能源汽车商业宣传、事件事故报告等方面征求意见,综合整治反内卷政策 举措向更广泛无序竞争领域推进,汽车行业低价无序竞争效果渐显。其它项 中,通信工具价格本月由涨转跌至-0.1%,服装和中药价格环比分别下降 0.1% 和 0.3%;医疗服务和家用器具价格环比分别上涨 0.5%和 1.1%。 核心价格同比持续回升:8月份核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.9%,涨幅比上月扩大 ● 0.1 个百分点。其中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 36.7%和 29.8%, 分析师 张迪 合计影响 CPI 同比上涨约 0.22个百分点;家用器具和文娱耐用消费品价格同 比涨幅分别扩大至 ...

宏观动态报告 CPI 低位承压, PPI 低点已过 8 月物价数据解读 2025 年 9 月 10 日 提振消费政策叠加低价竞争治理效果渐显,交通工具价格连续两个月持 ● 平:7月下旬第三批补贴资金已经下发各地,部分地区的以旧换新逐步重启, 补贴方式也更加多元化,带动需求持续回暖,支撑交通工具环比在连续五个月 下行后连续两个月价格持平。8月中旬,两部委发布《关于加强智能网联新能 源汽车产品召回、生产一致性监督管理与规范宣传的通知(征求意见稿)》, 就新能源汽车商业宣传、事件事故报告等方面征求意见,综合整治反内卷政策 举措向更广泛无序竞争领域推进,汽车行业低价无序竞争效果渐显。其它项 中,通信工具价格本月由涨转跌至-0.1%,服装和中药价格环比分别下降 0.1% 和 0.3%;医疗服务和家用器具价格环比分别上涨 0.5%和 1.1%。 核心价格同比持续回升:8月份核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.9%,涨幅比上月扩大 ● 0.1 个百分点。其中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 36.7%和 29.8%, 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the satellite communication industry [3]. Core Insights - The satellite communication sector is evolving from traditional voice and emergency connections to a composite infrastructure upgrade that integrates "communication + computing power + data" [6]. - The approval of mobile satellite communication licenses for major telecom operators like China Unicom is accelerating the formation of the satellite communication landscape, enhancing service offerings in emergency communication, maritime communication, and remote area connectivity [5][6]. - The industry is witnessing a shift in value distribution towards downstream applications and terminal segments, with the commercial exploration of operational and service models being central to future development [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The satellite industry encompasses manufacturing, launching, operational services, and ground equipment, forming a complete closed loop from spacecraft development to commercialization [5]. - According to the Satellite Industry Association (SIA), the global revenue distribution for satellite launch, manufacturing, operational services, and ground equipment in 2024 is projected to be 3.2%, 6.8%, 37.0%, and 53.0% respectively, indicating a shift towards downstream applications [5]. Business Models - The report identifies three main business directions for satellite operations: 1. Space computing power leasing services, acting as a "space data center" to provide edge computing capabilities [2]. 2. Space communication and the "Star Cable Plan," which aims to create a low-latency, high-security cross-domain transmission network [2]. 3. Monetization of intelligent data assets through applications in various industries, forming a "Data as a Service (DaaS)" model [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Putian Technology, Tongyu Communication, Zhenyou Technology, Jinxinno, Zongheng Communication, Zhenxin Technology, Shanghai Hantong, and Shunhao Co., Ltd. as potential investment opportunities in the satellite communication sector [6].

AI 引领电子加速，推动中国经济高质量发展 分析师：高峰 分析师：王子路 分析师：钱德胜 分析师：钟宇佳 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 电子行业 · 专题报告 AI 引领电子加速，推动中国经济高质量发展 2025 年 09 月 09 日 分析师 高峰 ：gaofeng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040001 王子路 ：wangzilu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522050001 钱德胜 ：qiandesheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521070001 钟宇佳 ：zhongyujia_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525080002 相关研究 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 "十四五"期间：电子产业是中国经济高质量发展的重要引擎："十四五" 期间，中国电子信息制造业规模持续扩大、创新能力显著增强、产业结构不断 优化，成为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the light industry sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the differentiated catalytic factors across various sectors, particularly highlighting the impact of national subsidies on consumer demand in the home furnishing sector [4][50] - The home furnishing retail sales in July 2025 reached 16.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with cumulative retail sales from January to July 2025 amounting to 115.91 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year [4][50] - The report notes that the packaging sector is experiencing stable downstream demand, with aluminum prices showing short-term fluctuations [35] Summary by Sections Industry Key Data Tracking - The cumulative GDP value for China in the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [6] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to July 2025 was 515.6 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales value of 4956.6 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [9] Industry News and Dynamics - The third batch of national subsidy funds amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support the consumption of old-for-new policies [51] - Several packaging companies reported significant revenue and profit growth in their mid-year reports for 2025, with companies like Aorijin and Xianggang Technology showing substantial increases in both revenue and net profit [52][55] Performance in Capital Markets - The proportion of institutional holdings in the light industry sector increased to 0.92% in Q2 2025, up 0.21 percentage points from Q1 2025 [58] - The light manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.01% in August-September 2025, ranking 7th among 31 sub-industries [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the home furnishing sector that are likely to benefit from national subsidy policies, including customized home furnishing brands and leading companies in soft furnishings and electrical appliances [75][76]

Export Data - In August, China's exports amounted to $321.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, down from 7.2% in the previous month[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year growth rate for exports during this period is 2.8%[5] - The two-year compound growth rate for August is 6.5%, slightly down from 7.1%[6] Import Data - Imports in August totaled $219.48 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 4.1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year growth rate for imports during this period is 0.5%[7] - The decline in import growth was below the consensus expectation of 3.3%[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for August was $102.3 billion, an increase from $98.2 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Trade Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -33.1%, compared to -21.7% previously, impacting overall export growth by 5.1 percentage points[10] - Exports to the EU increased by 10.4%, up from 9.2%, contributing positively to export growth[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose to 22.5%, up from 16.6%, with significant increases to Singapore (33%), Malaysia (13%), and Vietnam (31%)[11] Product-Specific Trends - High-tech product exports grew by 8.9%, up from 4.3%, while labor-intensive product exports fell to -6.6% from -0.7%[18] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 32.8%, improving from 29.2%[18] Risks and Outlook - Risks include weakening external demand, potential domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[3][26] - The outlook suggests that export conditions may gradually face pressure due to high base effects and ongoing trade disputes[23]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.78% to close at 1647.01 points on September 8, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 0.38% and 0.16% respectively [3][4] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange reached 44.715 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.42%, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous week's average daily trading volume of 35.971 billion yuan [3][4] - The sectors that saw the largest gains included power equipment (+21.3%), transportation (+4.2%), media (+2.5%), and household appliances (+1.7%), while the sectors with the largest declines were building materials (-5.9%), light industry manufacturing (-3.9%), and textiles and apparel (-1.6%) [3][4] Market Performance - Among the 275 listed companies on the North Exchange, 132 companies saw their stock prices rise, while 142 experienced declines. The top performer was Sanxie Electric, which surged by 785.62%, followed by Huami New Materials (+15.76%) and Chuangyuan Xinke (+15.23%) [3][4][8] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange listed companies was approximately 56.56 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (67.12 times) and the Growth Enterprise Market (43.04 times) [3][4][12] Industry Analysis - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the computer sector was the highest at 188.1 times, followed by light industry manufacturing (147.0 times) and building materials (106.1 times). In contrast, the sectors with lower P/E ratios included machinery, defense, and basic chemicals [3][12] - The trading activity was notably high for companies like Sanxie Electric (95.95% turnover rate), Tianhong Lithium Battery (42.58%), and Kexin New Materials (38.60%) [3][4][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - After the summer holiday, domestic travel demand has significantly decreased, with subway passenger volume growth at -0.68% year-on-year and -7.25% month-on-month as of September 6[2] - In August, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%[2] - Export resilience is noted, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 1978.4, down 1.15% month-on-month but up 0.54% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production generally declined in the first week of September, with average blast furnace operating rates down 3.09 percentage points to 80.38%[3] - The chemical industry shows a significant downturn, with PTA production and operating rates down 7.76% and 11.71 percentage points respectively, falling below 70% for the first time this year[3] - The construction sector remains sluggish, with rebar operating rates averaging 42.28%, down 1.6 percentage points[3] Price Performance - Pork prices have seen a narrowing decline, while fruit and vegetable prices have risen, with key monitored vegetable prices up 3.47% and fruit prices up 1.28% as of September 5[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.38% and Brent crude by 1.01% as of September 5, reflecting a general decline in black commodity prices[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with 820 billion yuan in special bonds and 2.671 trillion yuan in regular bonds issued this week, achieving 70.6% of the annual issuance target[3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to restart government bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy[3] International Macro - The U.S. labor market shows significant weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is high due to ongoing economic slowdown and policy pressures from the Trump administration[1]