宏观动态报告 6.85 能守住吗？ 2026 年 2 月 27 日 人民币的点阵图：短期人民币汇率有望保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。根据我们的人民币汇率短期框架——人民币汇率的点阵图，我们认为短期 人民币汇率将处于第一象限，人民币的升值速率将有所减缓，呈现稳健升值。 一方面人民币的结汇需求从 3 月起将季节性走弱，二季度中概股将进入分红 期带来集中购汇，从外汇供求关系来看并不是有利于升值的方向；另一方面汇 率政策已启动逆周期 调节， 如果进 一步过 于剧烈 的波 动 可能会 引发其 他汇率 调节工具的推出。当下人民币汇率来到 6.85 这一关键点位附近，我们预期将 进入温和的震荡上行，下一个比较重要的点位可能在 6.75，是 2022 年 11 月 启动的快速强劲升值周期的低点。全年来看，人民币汇率依然是双向波动，不 会呈现单边的升值走势。展望 2026 年，目前人民币汇率正向着我们前期报告 分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ：0755-8345-3719 ：zhanlu @china ...

Group 1: AI Bubble Characteristics - The current AI bubble is characterized as a "rational bubble," differing from historical irrational bubbles like the Dutch tulip mania, due to AI's transformative potential for society[4] - The macroeconomic environment, valuation structures, and investment intensity indicate that the risks associated with the current AI bubble are manageable compared to the 2000 internet bubble[4] - Global major economies are in a rate-cutting window, with actual interest rates significantly declining, which increases market tolerance for long-term capital expenditures and uncertainties in future returns[4] Group 2: Risks and Potential Outcomes - Structural and cyclical issues in the global economy present systemic risks that exceed those during the 2000 internet bubble, driven by demographic aging, debt expansion, and de-globalization[4] - The AI bubble may lead to unexpected liquidity tightening, especially if geopolitical tensions raise commodity prices, potentially resulting in a "secondary inflation" scenario[5] - The difficulty in forming a closed-loop business model within the AI industry could hinder the sustainability of the bubble, as heavy asset expansion increases operational cash flow pressures[5] Group 3: Economic Implications - AI's impact on employment and consumption may lead to economic demand shocks, with the potential for a "smart crisis" that could exacerbate economic downturns[5] - If the bubble bursts, China's adjustment may be more manageable due to its national system and domestic market advantages[5] - The ongoing AI investment is still in the early stages of technology diffusion, with significant room for growth compared to the peak of the internet cycle[7]

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be adjusted to a more pragmatic range of 4.5% to 5.0%[2] - The budget expenditure is anticipated to exceed 30 trillion yuan[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary intensity, with a focus on preemptive measures and optimized direction[3] - The budget for 2026 is projected to be 30 trillion yuan, representing a 4% increase[2] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will be flexible and efficient, working in coordination with fiscal measures to stabilize the market[3] - Interest rates may be adjusted by 50 basis points to support economic stability[3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with investments in both physical infrastructure and human capital closely linked[3] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 15% in 2026, compared to a 5.7% increase in 2025[3] New Growth Drivers - The importance of "AI+" will increase, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence in various sectors[3] - There will be a focus on regional collaborative innovation and the development of industrial clusters[3]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) on February 25, 2026, showed a slight increase, with the BSE 50 index rising by 0.77% to close at 1,547.20 points. The specialized and innovative index increased by 1.22% to 2,597.61 points, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][4][6]. - The total trading volume on the BSE reached 18.656 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 787 million shares, reflecting a recovery compared to the average daily trading volume of 18.575 billion yuan in the previous week [1][6]. - Most sectors on the BSE experienced gains, particularly non-ferrous metals (up 3.1%), environmental protection (up 2.5%), and transportation (up 2.4%). Conversely, the oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 5.9% [1][4][6]. Company Performance - Among the 294 listed companies on the BSE, 208 saw their stock prices rise, while 80 experienced declines. Leading gainers included Tonghui Information (+10.28%), Anda Technology (+8.20%), and Tianli Composite (+6.33%). Notable decliners were Liancheng CNC (-7.13%), Keli Co., Ltd. (-5.88%), and Shisheng Intelligent (-3.51%) [1][7][8]. - The trading activity was particularly high for Keli Co., Ltd. with a turnover rate of 38.52%, followed by Nongda Technology at 24.91% and Tonghui Information at 22.82% [1][7]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of companies listed on the BSE was reported at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.68 times, which is higher than the P/E ratios of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (79.31 times) and the ChiNext Board (46.83 times) [1][9]. - Sector-wise, the non-ferrous metals industry had the highest average P/E ratio at 131.3 times, followed by telecommunications (90.5 times) and oil and petrochemicals (90.2 times) [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The Shanghai government has introduced new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3] - The policies include lowering the threshold for non-local residents to purchase homes, increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount, and improving property tax policies to support housing demand [3] - The report suggests that these measures will likely release pent-up housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in the real estate market [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Shanghai government has relaxed housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents, including: - Reducing the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period to 1 year for purchasing homes in the outer ring [3] - Allowing non-local residents who have paid individual income tax for 3 years or more to purchase an additional home in the outer ring [3] - Permitting non-local residents with a Shanghai residence permit for over 5 years to buy one home without proof of social security or tax payments [3] Loan Policy Adjustments - The maximum housing provident fund loan amount for first-time homebuyers has been increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million, with potential increases for families with multiple children or those purchasing green buildings [3] - The loan policy has been optimized to allow individuals who have previously used provident fund loans to apply again under certain conditions [3] Tax Policy Enhancements - Starting January 1, 2026, property tax exemptions will be granted to local residents' children when purchasing their first home, aimed at stimulating housing demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [3] - It also suggests focusing on quality developers, property management firms, and commercial real estate [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The "Trade-in Policy" has shown initial effectiveness, driving automotive consumption exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the average purchase price for trade-in vehicles rising to over 164,000 yuan [4] - As of February 19, 2026, the trade-in policy has benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion yuan, with 612,000 vehicles traded in, leading to new car sales of 100.53 billion yuan [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in automotive market consumption post-Spring Festival, supported by the upcoming launch of several flagship new energy products [4] Summary by Sections Automotive Market Performance - In January 2026, China's automotive sales decreased by 3.2% year-on-year to 2.346 million units, with domestic sales down 14.8% to 1.665 million units [4] - Passenger vehicle sales saw a significant decline of 19.5% year-on-year, while commercial vehicle sales increased by 23.4% [4] - Exports of automobiles rose by 44.9% year-on-year to 681,000 units, with passenger vehicle exports increasing by 48.9% [4] New Energy Vehicle Insights - New energy vehicle sales in January 2026 were stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 945,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 40.3% [4] - The report highlights that the penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles is 41.7%, while commercial vehicles stand at 22.6% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading passenger vehicle companies, the intelligent manufacturing supply chain, and the humanoid robot industry chain [4] - Specific recommendations include Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics for intelligent components [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][57]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single-product model to a platform-based beverage giant, with energy drink sustainability and new product expansion being key factors influencing performance and stock price [8]. - The energy drink segment is expected to stabilize in the short term, with long-term growth potential remaining significant due to market expansion and increasing consumer demographics [11][14]. - New product launches, particularly in milk tea and unsweetened tea, are anticipated to catalyze sales growth in the upcoming months [18][23]. - Multiple internal and external factors are expected to contribute to margin improvement, including raw material cost reductions and operational efficiencies [29]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue potential projected for the region by 2030 [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 211 billion, 271 billion, and 330 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 28%, and 22% [48]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 45 billion, 59 billion, and 73 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 23% [49]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth across the entire value chain, with a high level of activity in the computing power sector [1][5] - Domestic advancements include the development of 5G-A technologies and the integration of AI applications, indicating a strong focus on enhancing computational resources [1][5] - Internationally, collaborations such as the partnership between STMicroelectronics and AWS highlight the industry's shift towards AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in data center infrastructure [1][5] Summary by Sections Domestic Developments - The report emphasizes the progress in 5G-A technologies and the ongoing research in 6G, focusing on seamless integration between optical and wireless communication systems [1] - The demand for computational resources is increasing, indicating that the computing power industry remains in a high-growth phase [5] International Collaborations - Notable partnerships, such as META's agreement with NVIDIA, showcase the industry's commitment to advancing AI capabilities and enhancing computational efficiency [1] - The construction of data centers in the U.S. by major companies like Facebook and OpenAI reflects ongoing investments in infrastructure to support growing computational needs [1][5]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Trends - The extended Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost travel, tourism, and consumption significantly, with a projected increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush[2] - In 2026, the Spring Festival is anticipated to set five new records for travel intensity, with a notable increase in self-driving trips and strong demand for tourism[9] - The sales of commercial housing during the Spring Festival are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of AI consumer terminals, marking the beginning of competitive AI applications[2] - The introduction of AI technologies during the Spring Festival gala has enhanced public awareness of embodied intelligence, further supporting the notion of 2026 as a key year for AI application competition[34] Group 3: International Trade and Currency - The repeal of Trump-era tariffs is expected to lead to a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the current tariff rate on Chinese goods at 28.93%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from late 2025[4] - The global trade tensions are easing, which is likely to support a resilient growth rate in China's export sector[4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Data - Inflation rates in the US and Japan are lower than expected, indicating a downward trend, with the US CPI at 2.4% and Japan's at 1.5%[6] - The US GDP growth for Q4 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to temporary impacts from government shutdowns, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4%[6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer electronics industry, particularly in AI hardware, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [4][13]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing rapid growth in new product categories, especially AI-related devices, driven by strong sales during the Chinese New Year [6][10]. - Major companies are accelerating their investments in AI hardware, with significant developments from firms like OpenAI and Apple, which are expanding their product lines to include AI wearables and smart devices [9][10][11]. - The report highlights a notable decline in smartphone sales in China, with a 23% year-on-year drop in January 2026, although Apple remains a standout performer with positive growth [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Events Overview - During the Chinese New Year, sales of smart wearable devices increased by 130%, and health monitoring devices saw over 60% growth [6]. - AI glasses sales surged by 70-80%, while drones and robots experienced a 30-50% increase in sales [6]. - AI toy sales skyrocketed by 500 times during the holiday season, with six products exceeding one million units sold [6][7]. - The UTree humanoid robot showcased advanced performance during the Spring Festival Gala, achieving a maximum running speed of 4 m/s [7]. - OpenAI is developing a smart speaker with facial recognition capabilities, expected to launch in 2027 [9]. - Apple is advancing three new AI wearable devices, including high-end smart glasses and AI AirPods, aimed at enhancing the iPhone experience [10]. - Tesla's Cybercab, a fully autonomous electric vehicle, was officially launched [11]. - Smartphone sales in China saw a significant decline, with Apple being the only major brand to report growth [12]. Latest Industry Perspectives - The evolution of large model capabilities is pushing the industry towards the "Agentic AI" phase, with hardware being the most reliable beneficiary of AI applications, presenting new growth opportunities for consumer electronics companies [13]. - Recommended companies for investment include Crystal Optoelectronics, Jiebang Technology, and Tianyue Advanced, with a focus on AI glasses, AI toys, humanoid robots, and smart driving technologies [13].