财政金融六项政策落地，关注结构调优和息差改善 —— 财政金融促内需一揽子政策点评 2026 年 01 月 22 日 核心观点 银行行业 行业点评报告 · 银行行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 张一纬 ：010-80927617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理：袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 01 月 21 日 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/1/22 2025/2/22 2025/3/22 2025/4/22 2025/5/22 2025/6/22 2025/7/22 2025/8/22 2025/9/22 2025/10/22 2025/11/22 2025/12/22 SW银行 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河银行】行业周报 20260118：结构性工具降 息扩容，对公贷款有望支撑开门红 2.【银河银行】行业点评-从开门红看银行量价险 事件： 1 月 20 日，国新办举办两场发布会，同日财政部 ...

宏观研究报告 五项新政落地，政策协同共促内需 —— 财政新闻发布会快评 2026 年 1 月 20 日 ⚫ 1 月 20 日上午，财政部官网连续发布 5 个文件，事关消费贷、民间投资等。 下午财政部举行"发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展"新闻 发布会，并答记者问。我们对此解读如下： ⚫ 一、与央行形成高效政策协同 此前 1 月 15 日央行举行新闻发布会，推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调 在实施过程中，将与财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。 20 日财政部发布 5 份贴息、担保等政策文件，精准对接央行重点支持的扩大 内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域。从央行到财政两场发布会间隔 3 个工 作日，政策基本无缝链接，避免政策空窗期，体现当下货币与财政高度协同 发力的特征。 ⚫ 二、5 份财政文件与央行政策精准对接 （一）中小微企业贷款贴息政策。这是一项新设政策，贴息年化 1.5%，单 户上限 5000 万，聚焦新能源汽车、工业机器人等 14 条重点产业链及上下游 产业等诸多领域。精准对接此前央行单设 1 万亿民营企业再贷款（利率降低 0.25%至 1.25%）。两者协同，成本叠加下降—— ...

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of quantitative funds, particularly index-enhanced funds, absolute return funds, and other active quantitative funds, without detailing specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[2][3][4] - The performance of index-enhanced funds is highlighted, with the CSI 300 Index Enhanced Funds achieving a weekly excess return median of 0.49%, while CSI 500 Index Enhanced Funds had a negative weekly excess return median of -0.25%. CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Funds and CSI A500 Index Enhanced Funds recorded weekly excess return medians of 0.43% and 0.39%, respectively[3][4][5] - Absolute return (hedging) funds achieved a weekly return median of 0.19%, while other active quantitative funds recorded a higher weekly return median of 1.51%[8][9][10] - Other strategy funds, such as multi-factor funds, demonstrated strong performance with a weekly return median of 1.89%, while big data-driven active investment funds showed a negative weekly return median of -0.89%[15][19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a decline in sales area, with a total of 880 million square meters sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [5][9] - In December 2025, the monthly sales area increased by 39.88% month-on-month but decreased by 15.60% year-on-year [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, down 12.60% year-on-year, with December's sales revenue at 88.07 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.09% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.60% [5] - The average sales price for the year was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 0.20% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates improvements in market expectations due to policy support and effective supply management [5] Sales Summary - National sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [5] - December 2025 saw a monthly sales area of 93.99 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The average sales price in December was 9,370 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.48% [5] Investment Summary - Total real estate development investment for 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, down 17.20% year-on-year [13] - December 2025's monthly development investment was 41.97 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.79% [13] - New construction area for 2025 was 58.77 million square meters, down 20.40% year-on-year, with December's new construction area at 5.313 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 20.89% [16] - The total completed area for 2025 was 60.348 million square meters, down 18.10% year-on-year, with December's completed area at 20.894 million square meters, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 354.92% [18] Funding Summary - Total funds received by real estate companies in 2025 amounted to 931.17 billion yuan, down 13.40% year-on-year [22] - Domestic loans accounted for 140.94 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [22] - Self-raised funds totaled 331.49 billion yuan, down 12.20% year-on-year, while deposits and prepayments were 280.89 billion yuan, down 16.20% year-on-year [22] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong operational management and financial advantages, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others [39] - It suggests focusing on quality developers like Greentown China and China Overseas Development, as well as property management leaders like Greentown Service [39]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 4.5%, while the nominal GDP is expected to rise by 5.0%[1] - The actual GDP is forecasted to decline, contrasting with the nominal GDP increase, indicating a potential economic slowdown[4] Consumption Trends - Consumer spending recovery is slowing, with a growth rate of only 0.7% in December 2025, primarily due to weak goods consumption[3] - Service consumption continues to improve, showing a growth of 1.3% in December 2025[14] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment is experiencing a marginal decline, with a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year in December 2025[27] - High-tech industries are still driving production growth, with a notable increase of 28.4% in December 2025[27] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in this sector[30] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to weaken, with a significant drop of 35.8% in December 2025 compared to the previous year[3] - Residential sales prices are also declining, with a decrease of 1.7% in December 2025[3] Employment Situation - Employment remains stable, with an unemployment rate of 5.2% in December 2025, but further support is needed to maintain this stability[3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a pullback in ESG strategy excess returns this week, with both ESG screening and sentiment integration strategies underperforming relative to the benchmark [1][4][8]. ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, experienced a decline of 1.87% as of January 16, 2026, compared to a drop of 0.57% in the CSI 300 benchmark, resulting in an excess return of -1.30% [4][7]. - Over the last month, the total return for this strategy was -2%, with a relative total return of -6%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -2%. The Sharpe ratio stood at -2.59 [7]. ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, derived from the report published on February 28, 2025, saw a decrease of 2.20% as of January 16, 2026, against the CSI 300 benchmark's decline of 0.57%, leading to an excess return of -1.63% [8][11]. - In the latest month, this strategy recorded a total return of -3% and a relative total return of -7%, with a maximum gain of 1% and a maximum loss of -3%. The Sharpe ratio was -4.97 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the continued dividend value of bank stocks and the positive outlook for the sector [39]. Core Insights - The expansion of structural monetary policy tools and interest rate cuts is expected to support banks in stabilizing their interest margins and enhance support for key areas of the real economy [5][39]. - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in corporate financing demand, with public loans expected to continue supporting the bank's credit growth in early 2026 [5][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of policies and the potential for further monetary easing, including a projected 50 basis points (BP) reduction in reserve requirements and a 10-20 BP cut in interest rates throughout the year [8][39]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reduced the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 25 BP, which is expected to enhance banks' credit allocation to key sectors [7][8]. - The PBOC's measures include increasing the quotas for re-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises and expanding support for technology innovation and green financing [7][8]. Market Performance - The banking sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 3.03% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][15]. - The report notes that only three A-share banks saw an increase in stock prices, while the majority experienced declines [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks that are likely to benefit from the structural monetary policy changes, recommending specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China [39]. - The report highlights the ongoing dividend appeal of bank stocks, driven by factors such as low interest rates and substantial dividend payouts [39]. Financial Data - As of December, the total social financing (TSF) showed a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, with corporate loans demonstrating a notable increase, indicating a recovery in financing demand [9][10]. - The report projects that the total new RMB loans in January 2026 will be approximately 5.5-5.6 trillion yuan, with public loans expected to perform slightly better than the previous year [12][39].

Economic Overview - The economic outlook for Q1 2026 is optimistic, with high-frequency data indicating a strong start to the year[1] - Moderate re-inflation is expected to be a key macro theme influencing asset allocation in the first quarter[1] Policy Measures - Domestic macro policies are showing a clear trend of proactive measures, with a focus on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies[1] - Fiscal policy is set to issue 8,000 billion yuan, while monetary policy is expected to adjust interest rates by 50 basis points[1] Demand Side Analysis - Consumer activity remains stable, with a 4.9% increase in travel, although movie box office revenues have seen a decline of 13.4%[2] - External demand shows resilience, with port cargo and container throughput exceeding last year's levels, despite a 26.6% drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[2] Production Insights - Production remains robust during the off-peak season, with a 1.44 percentage point increase in operational rates across various sectors[2] - The production index for PTA has increased by 1.12%, indicating a healthy production environment[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a marginal recovery in pork prices, while vegetable prices continue to decline, with a CPI increase of 0.27%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects fluctuations in crude oil prices, with a 4.50% increase noted[3] Fiscal and Monetary Dynamics - Fiscal issuance is strategically positioned, with multiple measures being implemented to support economic growth[3] - The yield curve for government bonds has shifted downward, indicating a potential easing of monetary conditions[3] Global Economic Context - Global growth expectations have been slightly revised upward, with a projected GDP growth of 2.6% for 2026, reflecting a 0.2% increase[4] - The U.S. inflation rate remains stable at 2.7%, with strong employment data supporting consumer spending[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the close linkage between government bond futures and the cash bond market, primarily established through the physical delivery mechanism and the holding cost pricing model, which ensures price convergence under a no-arbitrage condition [5][6][20] - The report outlines the pricing basis for government bond futures, highlighting that the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bond serves as the benchmark for pricing, determined by both empirical rules and indicators such as implied repo rates and net basis [2][6][10] - The holding cost model is identified as the theoretical foundation for pricing government bond futures, reflecting the total costs and benefits of holding the underlying bond until the delivery date, thus serving as a basis for arbitrage opportunities [11][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the characteristics of government bond futures pricing, noting high volatility driven by leverage and DV01, negative convexity due to CTD bond switching, and low continuity resulting in opening gaps [24][25][43] - It highlights that the volatility of futures prices is typically greater than that of cash bonds, with different futures contracts exhibiting varying degrees of sensitivity to market movements [25][27] - The report also points out that the CTD bond switching can significantly impact pricing, as the choice of which bond to deliver can alter the futures price and its sensitivity to interest rate changes [34][35] Group 3 - The net basis signal strategy is introduced as a method to capture mean reversion opportunities by converting net basis from a traditional arbitrage indicator into a sentiment signal for trend trading [2][3] - The performance of the strategy is evaluated, showing an annualized return of 2.0% for the T contract from 2019 to 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -4.4%, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [2][3] - The report suggests improvements to the strategy through trend filters, which enhance performance metrics, and discusses the adaptability of the strategy to different futures contracts like TF and TS [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Unisoc (stock code: 002049) [1]. Core Insights - Unisoc is expanding its power semiconductor product layout to explore new business growth drivers. The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Ruineng Semiconductor at a price of 61.75 yuan per share, which will enhance its power semiconductor product matrix and complete its semiconductor industry chain [4]. - The acquisition is expected to enrich the product matrix, allowing Unisoc to quickly fill manufacturing gaps and leverage shared customer resources to accelerate expansion in industrial and automotive electronics [4]. - The target company reported revenues and net profits of 830 million yuan and 101 million yuan for 2023, respectively, which will contribute positively to Unisoc's performance [4]. - Unisoc's new product iterations are accelerating, with advancements in high-performance products and a focus on aerospace-grade markets, which are expected to drive growth in multiple product lines [4]. - The company is establishing a new subsidiary, Unisoc Tongxin Technology, to focus on automotive electronics, which is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the company [4]. - The implementation of an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance employee motivation and support sustained growth in the future [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 6,422 million yuan in 2025, 7,368 million yuan in 2026, and 8,378 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1,668 million yuan, 1,942 million yuan, and 2,431 million yuan [5][7]. - The projected EPS for the same years is 1.96 yuan, 2.29 yuan, and 2.86 yuan, with P/E ratios of 44.16, 37.92, and 30.30, respectively [5][7]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 56.5% for 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 56.3% in 2027 [5][7].