l 港股市场回购周统计数据 l 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购统计周报 2025.8.4-2025.8.10 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 港股市场回购周统计数据 3 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.8.4-2025.8.10） l 周回购数据总汇 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 54,805.25 | 566.44 | 0.03% | | 0011.HK | 恒生银行 | 11,378.44 | 100.00 | 0.05% | | 0868.HK | 信义玻璃 | 4,973.25 | 622.70 | 0.14% | | 9987.HK | 百胜中国 | 2,507.60 | 6.92 | 0.02% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening domestic demand is reflected by the July manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations, and the correction in the commodity market pricing this week is favorable for the bond market, with yields of different maturities declining. The potential returns are considerable considering the downward space of 10 - 12bp for the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields and the duration [3][6]. - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, the demand side remains weak, and the short - term policy stimulus expectations are retreating. The cooling of the commodity market and the stock market may be beneficial to the bond market due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of the month may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation [6]. - For the second half of the year, policy clues may be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest rate bonds: The yield curve has flattened. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 1.37%, and the yields of 3 - year and above decreased more significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields decreased by 3.3bp and 3.4bp to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [12][15]. - Credit bonds: The spreads generally widened. On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 10bp, with the 5 - year yield reaching 2.04%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 7bp, 14bp, and 14bp respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local bonds: Issued 3372 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 2360 billion yuan, including 209 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1832 billion yuan of new special bonds (575 billion yuan of special special bonds), 877 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 454 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: Issued 4061 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 107 billion yuan, including 830 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - financial bonds: Issued 1580 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of - 56 billion yuan [20]. Fund Market Situation - The cross - month capital market remained stable. Before the cross - month, the central bank's large - scale net reverse - repurchase injection made the capital market looser. The overnight interest rate fell below the OMO rate, and the R001 decreased by 19bp to 1.36%. On the cross - month day, the central bank's "unexpected" reduction in roll - over still maintained a balanced capital market [26]. - The overnight and one - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp respectively compared with last week. The overnight and one - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp respectively compared with last week [26]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit mostly declined. The 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit decreased by 6.9bp to 1.49%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 5.9 months. The average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased from 7.70 trillion yuan last week to 6.72 trillion yuan [29]. China Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank conducted a basically equal - amount roll - over, with a net injection of 69 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of the macro - economic outlook, achieving the 5% annual target is not difficult. Policy clues will be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend in the second half of the year. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35].

策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 7 月经济数据表现波澜不惊，政策刺激预期主导市场走势，一是雅鲁藏布江水 电站于 19 日官宣开工，项目投资体量达到万亿水平，基建扩张逻辑引领权益、 商品两大市场于 21 日显著上涨；二是"反内卷"行情卷出新高度，各行各业 争相落地相关会议或涨价政策；随着市场风险偏好持续改善，带动上证综指和 深证成指分别录得 3.74%、5.32%的涨幅。债市在"股债跷跷板"、税期前后 资金面超预期收敛等利空因素影响下，表现不佳。展望后续，7 月 PMI 和票据 市场数据显示，需求端仍然偏弱，同时短期政策刺激预期正在回撤；另一方面， 随着商品市场和股市降温，股债跷跷板效应下或对债市形成利多；尽管利率债 收益率难以突破新低，但以 10 年、30 年国债收益率年内低点作为参考，二者 仍存在 10-12bp 的下行空间，叠加久期考量，潜在收益较为可观。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： ...

美债市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 美债市场表现回顾： 美债策略周报 2025.7.28-2025.8.3 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 n 7月FOMC会议表述偏鹰，但鲍威尔对就业下行风险关注度提升，并对9月降息持开放态度；周五公布的 非农大幅走弱，市场对就业市场韧性进行重新评估，不同期限美债利率均下行，10Y美债周内累计下行 17个bps。 l 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： l 美债市场策略：经济下行压力显现，美债拐点已至 2 n 基本面与货币政策：7月新增非农7.3万人，低于预期的10.4万人；前两月数据显著下修，5月和6月数据 共下修25.8万人，导致私人部门新增就业连续3个月低于10万人/月；失业率上行至4.25%；二季度 GDP环比3%，但主要由净出口回升贡献，其中私人消费支出环比走弱至1%下方；反应美国经济的下行 压力逐渐显现；货币政策方面，在记者会中，鲍威尔对就业市场关注度明显提升；尽管鲍威尔对9月是否 降息没有给出 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月美债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 美 债 策 略 月 报 7 月经济数据再显下行压力，非农超预期但结构明显走弱，二季度略超预期但 内需分项明显回落；通胀数据较上月回升但斜率较温和，市场对经济预期仍是 "软着陆"情形。全月来看，美股再次创下历史新高，美债收益率高位回落。 展望下半年，由于汇率对冲成本后的美债收益率不及欧日本国公债，这将降低 美债对海外投资者的吸引力，并导致一级交易商美债敞口仍将高位震荡。随着 美债市场去杠杆结束+"去美元化"进程暂时告一段落，美国经济的下行压力 也在逐渐显现，美债利率或已迎来拐点，10Y 美债利率年内低点或将突破 4 月 3.8%的新低，达到 3.6%。标的方面，我们继续推荐以下品种：TLT，TMF，10 年期及以上美债期货（CME 期货代码为 TY，US 和 UL；CBOT 代码为 ZN2509）。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 2025 年 8 月港股市场展望及配置策略 港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境内外部分化，政策面后续或仅"托而不举"， 情绪面短期预计仍偏观望。鉴于市场中长期趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走 势，我们不建议过度悲观。我们对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。 板块配置方面，我们看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽车、新消费、创 新药、科技等；业绩股价稳健且受益于政策利好的低估值国央企红利板块；基 本面独立且受益于降息周期的香港本地银行、电信及公用事业红利股。此外， 配置上尽可能回避对美业务敞口较大的行业板块及上市公司。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月港股市场月度展望及配置策略 ──港股策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 港 股 策 略 月 报 整体来看，港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境内外部分化，政策面后续或仅 "托而不举"，情绪面短期预计仍偏观望。鉴于当下港股市场中长期趋势已进 入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，我们仍不建议过度悲观。 我们对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观 ...

港股通数据统计周报 2025.7.28-2025.8.3 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.7.28-2025.8.3） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1211.HK | 比亚迪股份 | 可选消费 | 122586413 | 142.45 | | 2 | 2800.HK | 盈富基金 | | 274875500 | 68.66 | | 3 | 0939.HK | 建设银行 | 金融 | 382808815 | 30.20 | | 4 | 2628.HK | 中国人寿 | 金融 | 10906 ...

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week[11] - A total of 34 companies conducted buybacks this week, down from 43 companies last week[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740.86 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 29.95 million HKD[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, primarily driven by HSBC's significant repurchase[14] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 7 firms participating[14] - The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors followed, each with 6 companies conducting buybacks[14] Group 3: Individual Company Buyback Data - Australia New Oriental Education (1752.HK) had the highest buyback ratio at 12.19% of its total shares[15] - IGG (0799.HK) and Xinyi International (0732.HK) had buyback ratios of 0.21% and 0.22%, respectively[15] - The buyback amounts for other notable companies included 1.73 million HKD for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) and 1.37 million HKD for Vitasoy International (0345.HK)[15] Group 4: Significance of Buybacks - Buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, often signaling that the stock is undervalued[22] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, indicating companies' confidence in their stock's intrinsic value[22] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five buyback waves since 2008, all coinciding with subsequent market recoveries[22]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Life (2628.HK) with a net buy amount of 40.30 billion CNY, acquiring 177,142,212 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 25.53 billion CNY, acquiring 307,628,796 shares[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -29.03 billion CNY, selling 33,535,578 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows significant net buying activity, led by China Life and China Construction Bank, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Kuaishou (1024.HK) and SMIC (0981.HK), also sees substantial net buying, with Kuaishou netting 19.03 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the telecommunications sector, particularly China Mobile, experienced notable net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns in this area[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is the盈富基金 (2800.HK) with a total trading volume of 49.37 billion CNY and a net buy of 49.02 billion CNY[18] - SMIC (0981.HK) is also among the top active stocks with a trading volume of 40.80 billion CNY but a net sell of -6.84 billion CNY, indicating volatility[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of 22.47 billion CNY and a net buy of 2.48 billion CNY, suggesting ongoing interest[18]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.45%, 2.27%, and 2.51% respectively [3][10] - Most primary industry sectors saw gains, with only the telecommunications sector experiencing a slight decline [10][13] - The industrial and materials sectors had the highest weekly gains, both around 8%, while energy, industrial, information technology, and real estate sectors also saw increases exceeding 4% [10][13] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index is at 79%, which is above the 5-year average [3] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week [25] - The number of companies engaging in buybacks this week was 34, down from 43 the previous week [25][28] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 30 million HKD [24][25] Southbound Fund Flow - Southbound funds saw a net inflow exceeding 30 billion HKD this week, with total inflows for the year surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The top net bought companies included China Life (2628.HK) with a net purchase of 4.03 billion HKD and China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with 2.55 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net sold companies included China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sale of 2.90 billion HKD and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with 2.30 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong market is highly synchronized with the economic conditions in mainland China, as over 80% of profits come from Chinese companies [37][38] - Recent economic data shows improvements in industrial profits, but sustainability remains in question, particularly when excluding the automotive sector [42] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on the funding environment [39][40]