1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first half of the year, and it is not difficult to achieve the annual target of 5%. The market's expectation of strong policies is rising, and the improvement of risk appetite may cause the bond market pricing to remain entangled. Given the limited space for adding duration, the market needs time to wait for incremental funds to digest the existing supply. During this process, the decline in capital interest rates may reopen the interest rate spread space, and continuing to explore coupon assets may be the best strategy [5]. - In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the economy in the first half achieved an unexpected growth rate of 5.3%. The economic data in June continued the characteristic of "strong supply and weak demand" since the first quarter. The exchange rate pressure is relatively controllable in the short term, and the loose monetary policy will continue to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year [68]. - In July, there are few foreseeable negative factors. The fundamental data is still mixed, and the indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Review - **Interest Rate Bond Market**: The curve became slightly steeper, and long - term interest rates showed a V - shaped trend during the week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds decreased by 0.2 and 0.3 bps to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.8 bps to 1.34%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year interest rate bonds decreased by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively, the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds were flat compared with the previous week, and the yield of 30 - year bonds increased slightly by 1bp. The yield curve of policy - bank bonds also changed little, with only the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields decreasing by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp [11][14]. - **Credit Bond Market**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + implicit urban investment bonds decreased by 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by about 2bp [14]. 3.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - **Local Bonds**: This week, 251.2 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 163.4 billion yuan, including 27.6 billion yuan of new general bonds, 161.4 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 98.4 billion yuan of special special bonds), 62.1 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - **Treasury Bonds**: This week, 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 58.2 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [19]. - **Policy - Bank Bonds**: This week, 162 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds were issued, with a net issuance of - 65.4 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Capital Market Situation - **Funding Tightening and Central Bank Intervention**: Affected by the tax period, the capital market tightened rapidly. The central bank increased the investment to ease the market. On the first day of the tax period (July 15), the overnight interest rate jumped about 10bp. R001 and DR001 quickly rose above 1.50%, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% respectively; R007 and DR007 also rose to 1.59% and 1.57% respectively, with increases of 5bp and 3bp. With the support of the central bank's large - scale capital investment, the capital market gradually stabilized, and the overnight interest rate returned below 1.5% [25]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The weekly average values of R001 and R007 increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and one - week Shibor interest rates closed at 1.46% and 1.49%, changing by + 15.3bp and + 4bp respectively compared with the previous week; the overnight and one - week CNH Hibor interest rates closed at 1.42% and 1.62%, changing by - 20bp and + 0.4bp respectively compared with the previous week [5][25]. - **Certificate of Deposit Yields**: After the end of the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields decreased. The yields of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 2bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively to 1.54%, 1.58%, and 1.62%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 8.3 months, compared with 8.9 months in the previous week. Under the background of the gradual tightening of the capital market during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.21 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.24 trillion yuan [28]. 3.4 China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - **Economic Fundamentals** - **Foreign Trade**: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, remaining stable compared with the 6% increase from January to May. The trade surplus in June was 114.77 billion US dollars, remaining at a high level. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America increased by 16.8%, 9.4%, 34.8%, and - 2.1% respectively year - on - year; exports to the US decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous value. The export growth rate of labor - intensive products continued to be low, while products such as general machinery and ships with relative competitive advantages had a relatively fast export growth rate [33][36]. - **Social Financing**: In June, the monthly new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The end - of - month growth rate was 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%). Entity credit, government bond financing, and foreign currency loans improved significantly year - on - year [37]. - **Entity Credit**: In June, entity credit increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year. The improvement of enterprise short - term loans was obvious. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [43]. - **Money Supply**: In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year (previous value: 2.3%), and M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [46]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In June, the industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, reaching a new high in the past three months. The growth rate of emerging industries was faster than that of traditional industries [47]. - **Social Consumption**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, significantly lower than the previous value. Most optional consumption items declined, but automobile retail improved [51]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the previous value. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, large - scale infrastructure, and real estate all declined to varying degrees [58]. - **Real Estate**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion were - 20%, - 9.1%, and - 14.8% respectively. The new construction and construction growth rates both declined [62]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, the same as the previous value [62]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's open market operations this week resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 0.5 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.4 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0.1 trillion yuan from MLF. The outlook for the second half of the year is that the central bank will maintain a loose tone, and liquidity is likely to remain loose [5][65]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term, and external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term [65][68]. 3.5 China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - **Fundamental Outlook**: The economy in the first half of the year had a good start, but the data indicating domestic demand such as nominal GDP, CPI, and household loans were still weak. New policy clues or signals are crucial for the short - term macro - environment [68]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The effective demand in the economy is insufficient, and the loose monetary policy will continue [67]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In July, there are few negative factors. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market experienced upward pressure on yields due to resilient consumer spending and inflation data, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 0.6 basis points during the week [3][12][15] - The June CPI rose to 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI was at 2.9%, below expectations, indicating mixed inflation signals [6][56] - The Federal Reserve may misjudge the inflation situation, suggesting that long-term U.S. Treasuries still hold investment value, particularly in the 4.4%-4.5% range for the 10-year Treasury [5][76] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining its issuance structure and not significantly increasing long-term debt issuance [19][21] - The Treasury's net financing scale for Q2 is estimated at $514 billion, with Q3 expected to be $554 billion, indicating a manageable supply environment [25][21] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries remains high, with short positions at historical highs, reflecting ongoing basis trading and swap trading activities [26][30] Group 3 - The liquidity in the Treasury market is observed to be ample, with the average daily trading volume of SOFR rising to approximately $2.3 trillion [39][45] - The ON RRP usage remains high, indicating continued liquidity in the market, with reserves increasing by $33 billion to $3.38 trillion [45][44] - The implied volatility index for the Treasury market has slightly increased, but overall liquidity pressure remains low [48][39] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment shows that inflationary pressures are present but are expected to remain moderate without significant supply shocks [66][75] - The report highlights that the labor market shows signs of structural weakness despite low unemployment rates, which may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [77][75] - The potential for a shift in monetary policy is influenced by political pressures and the need to address fiscal deficits, particularly in light of the recent tax policies [76][73]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a rebound with long-term government bonds (10-year and 30-year) rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, while the 1-year government bond increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.37% [3][12][15] - The CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6%, indicating a widening decline primarily due to falling prices in the black series and construction materials [6][42] - The central bank's recent actions included a net withdrawal of 1.7 trillion yuan from the open market, with a focus on reverse repos, and a net payment of 0.3 trillion yuan in government bonds [39][42] Group 2 - The bond market outlook for July suggests limited negative factors, with a preference for high cost-performance varieties, as the fundamental data remains mixed [41][42] - The bond yield curve shows a steepening in the 3-5 year segment and a flattening in the 5-7 year segment, indicating that the 5-year point may serve as a key target for leverage strategies [6][41] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 231.8 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 130.3 billion yuan, while national bonds issued amounted to 293.2 billion yuan, netting 193.1 billion yuan [20][39]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥34.74 billion with a holding change of 28,948,209 shares[8] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) recorded the largest net sell amount of -¥20.13 billion with a holding change of -19,157,265 shares[9] - Construction Bank (0939.HK) saw a net buy of ¥26.31 billion, ranking second in net buys[8] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The financial sector was prominent in net buys, with Construction Bank and ZhongAn Online contributing significantly[8] - The consumer discretionary sector, led by Meituan-W and Li Auto-W, also showed strong net buying activity[8] - In net sells, the financial sector, including Alibaba-W and China Merchants Bank, dominated the list[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Guotai Junan International (1788.HK) was the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of ¥103.99 billion[19] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had a significant trading volume of ¥37.09 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥9.13 billion[19] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) was also active with a trading volume of ¥23.18 billion and a net buy of ¥4.02 billion[19]

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.7.7-2025.7.13 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | n 中美关系缓和、官方反内卷叠加南向资金流入改善，上周港股市场引来反弹。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +1.09%/+0.93%/+0.62%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，仅必选消费、公用事业和原材料业收跌。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为77%，估值水平超5年均值。 2 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：6月通胀表现仍然偏弱，后续利好因素有望支撑下半年PPI改善，关注官方"反内卷"治理企业低价无序竞争。 n 资金面：中美关系近期有所缓和；美国降息预期分歧较大，降息节点与力度不确定性仍较大；本周南向资金面逆势加码。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内经济数据显示经济活动表现仍然承压；政策面：政策组合加力应对内需走弱，近期官方重点"反内卷"； 资金面：南向资金 ...

美债策略周报 2025.7.7-2025.7.13 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 美债市场策略周报 - 投资要点 美债市场表现回顾： 本周关税风波再起，特朗普宣布对多国加征20%-50%不等关税，市场对通胀担忧重现，导致美债利率普 遍上行，10Y美债周内累计上行6.4个bps。 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： 美债市场策略：美联储或将再次误判通胀形势，长端美债仍具配置价值 2 基本面与货币政策：6月初请、续请失业金人数不及预期，反应美国就业市场韧性仍存；当周特朗普宣布 新版本的对等关税，主要贸易伙伴中，日韩为25%，墨西哥与欧盟为30%，加拿大分别为35%，巴西则 高达50%；特朗普还宣称将对参与金砖国家组织的贸易伙伴加征10%的额外关税。货币政策方面，美联 储理事沃勒称支持7月提前降息；同期市场开始对特朗普可能解雇鲍威尔进行定价。 流动性和供需：准备金回升855亿美元至3.34万亿，ON RRP用量回升，SOFR利率周内中枢环比回落 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in 2025 remains in an oversupply situation. The container shipping volume growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, lower than the shipping growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The impact of the rush - shipping in the US line on the European line is limited. Currently, the transfer of US line capacity is not obvious, and subsequent capacity adjustments need to be monitored [5]. - The 06 and 08 contracts are traditional peak - season contracts for the European line, and the shipping companies have strong bargaining power and price - holding ability. The 10 - month contract faces uncertainties after the 90 - day buffer period, and it is a traditional off - season [6]. - In 2025, the freight rate of the European line is expected to show a downward trend, and this supply - demand imbalance may continue until 2026. Short - term freight rate fluctuations are affected by tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Shipping Basics - **Shipping Market Introduction**: The shipping market is the cornerstone of global trade, accounting for over 90% of international cargo transportation. It can be divided into three main segments. In 2024, the global container trade volume reached 210 million TEU, accounting for 15.1% of the total global maritime trade volume. The container shipping volume of the Asia - Europe route accounts for 10.7% of the total container shipping volume [13][14]. - **Introduction to European Line Shipping Indexes**: The main China - Europe freight rate indexes include SCFI, SCFIS, CCFI, and the Baltic Freight Index (China - Europe). SCFI has a leading effect on SCFIS by about 2 weeks. CCFI changes more slowly than immediate freight rate indexes during rapid price increases or decreases [19][25]. - **Introduction to the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: It was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in August 2023, with the underlying index being the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route). The trading unit is 50 yuan/point, and the contract delivery months are even - numbered months of the year [26]. 2. Analysis Logic - **Seasonality**: Usually, 7 - 8 months are the Christmas stocking period, and 12 - 1 months are the pre - Chinese New Year rush - shipping period, which are peak seasons. 3 - 4 months and around October are off - seasons. However, during the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis, there were anti - seasonal price increases [28][29]. - **Shipping Costs**: Taking a 20,000 - TEU container ship as an example, the main costs include depreciation, loan costs, fuel costs, and port fees. Focusing on variable costs, in an efficient operation scenario, the cost per standard container can be compressed to the range of $545 - 579, corresponding to an index below 800 points. Currently, the European line index is still well above this level [32][36]. - **Capacity Supply**: Container ship construction is mainly undertaken by China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2025, the global delivery volume is expected to be 232 ships/1.89 million TEU. The overall global capacity will be in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to ease after 2026 [37]. - **Geopolitics**: Since the Red Sea situation deteriorated, about 90% of ships on the Asia - Europe route have chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the shipping cycle and costs and provides some price support for the European line [42]. - **European Economy and Tariff Impact on Demand**: The demand for the European line is mainly affected by the European economy. Economic indicators such as the consumer confidence index, PMI, and GDP can affect the freight volume and shipping company costs on the European line [46]. 3. Market Analysis - **Shipping Situation Before Tariff Negotiations**: After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, China's exports to the US declined significantly. Shipping companies transferred some US line capacity to the European line, causing the shipping price to fall by over 40% in April [50]. - **Shipping Situation After Tariff Negotiations**: After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement took effect on May 12, the shipping capacity in June decreased slightly compared to the beginning of May. The main shipping companies on the European line significantly increased their quotes for late June, and the settlement price in June is expected to be between 1900 - 2000 points [54]. - **Impact of the Iran - Israel Conflict on Prices**: On June 13, the European line price rose due to the Iran - Israel conflict. The conflict led to a more than 10% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the total cost of the European line by 4%. The continuous conflict may support the European line price in the long - term, but the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [55]. 4. Operation Suggestions - The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and the final delivery price is expected to be around 1900 - 1950 points. The 7 - month market may see an increase in both supply and demand. The 8 - month contract has room for shipping companies to hold up prices. The 10 - month contract may be the lowest price of the year [57]. - It is recommended to short - allocate the 10 - month off - season contract on rallies. If the price difference between the 10 and 12 contracts further narrows, an arbitrage strategy can be implemented [57].

1. Report Summary - The probability of the divergence between domestic and foreign price trends of iron ore in 2025 is extremely low [4][28] - The supply and demand of iron ore will increase simultaneously in the coming months, with limited pressure to accumulate inventory, and the overall contradiction is not prominent [3][40] - For the arbitrage strategy of long domestic and short foreign, it can be implemented at any time; for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips instead of selling on rallies [6][50] 2. Key Points of Each Section 2.1. Tracking of Domestic - Foreign Price Spread Arbitrage - Futures basis convergence leads to the price convergence of the main contract of DCE iron ore futures and the spot price of imported iron ore [11] - The variable part of monthly import cost is approximately equal to the swap price multiplied by the exchange rate, resulting in the convergence of DCE iron ore futures and (swap price * exchange rate) [11] - The domestic - foreign price spread (DCE main contract - swap * exchange rate) is the observed indicator and actual position of the long domestic and short foreign strategy [11][21] - The historical periods of divergence in domestic - foreign price spread are 2021 Mar - Jul, Oct - Dec and 2022 Feb - Mar, mainly due to non - market factors leading to the weakness of DCE iron ore futures [14][15] - The probability of divergence between domestic and foreign price trends of iron ore in 2025 is extremely low because there is no strong demand for administrative production cut, and it is difficult for domestic production to lead to long - term losses of imports [21][28] 2.2. Outlook of Iron Ore Market in Summer - The demand is the dominant factor in the iron ore market. As of June 12, the daily pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and it is expected to increase slightly until early August [29] - The blast furnace profit usually changes one month ahead of the pig iron output. Currently, the blast furnace profit of steel mills is still increasing, which is consistent with the increase in pig iron output indicated by maintenance data [31] - The cumulative global iron ore shipments in 2025 reached 68,170,000 tons, an increase of 104,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 55,854,000 tons, an increase of 351,000 tons year - on - year [34] - The overall inventory of domestic iron ore has been decreasing and started to accumulate slightly in June, with less pressure on inventory compared to last year [35] - The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in the coming months, with limited pressure to accumulate inventory, and the overall contradiction is not prominent [3][40] 2.3. Summer Strategy Recommendations for Iron Ore - The domestic - foreign price spread (DCE main contract - swap * exchange rate) tends to converge upward as the DCE main contract expires [50] - The historical reasons for the downward fluctuation of the domestic - foreign price spread are mainly non - market factors leading to the weakness of DCE iron ore futures [50] - The risk of DCE iron ore futures (domestic) being significantly weaker than the swap (foreign) lies in production cut of crude steel and abundant domestic production, which are unlikely to happen at present [50] - In terms of single transactions, the near - term can enter the market at any time; in terms of asset portfolio, referring to the annualized return, it can replace other arbitrage portfolios [50] - In terms of time, there is no need to time; it can also enter the market when the import profit (one of the tracking indicators) is low [50] - In the long - term, the supply and demand in 2025 will be in tight balance, the price center is difficult to decline significantly, and the trend of inventory accumulation is expected to form until the fourth quarter. It is no longer recommended to sell on rallies but more inclined to buy on dips. It is more cost - effective to start deploying long positions around $90 [50] - In the short - term, it is not expected to decline significantly as the time when pig iron reaches its peak and then trends downward is still far away; due to the rapid increase in supply, the fundamental of Sep contract of iron ore tends to weaken, so the upside is also limited. It is recommended to gradually establish long positions around 650 for far - term contracts, and sell out - of - the - money call options when the Sep contract is above 830 [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold cross - market spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and is also affected by exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term fluctuations in regional gold price differences may still lead to obvious arbitrage opportunities in the gold cross - market spread, but the current opportunities from exchange - rate expectations are small. Future attention can be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff expectations on the gold cross - market spread [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Market Tracking - Gold, as a global asset, should theoretically have convergent prices in various markets. However, due to exchange - rate fluctuations, tariff policies, transportation costs, and market liquidity differences, cross - market spreads persist. When the COMEX gold price is higher than the SHFE price, forward arbitrage can be carried out; when the domestic price is higher than the international price, reverse arbitrage can be carried out [10] - From January to April, the Sino - US gold spread (Shanghai gold price minus the converted New York gold price) had relatively stable fluctuations with an average of about - 1 yuan/gram, providing basically no obvious arbitrage space. Since May, the spread has fluctuated significantly, with the average rising to 10.2 yuan/gram, creating many opportunities for cross - market spread arbitrage [11] 2. Gold Cross - Market Spread Structure Analysis - The gold cross - market spread is mainly composed of two variables: the price changes of Shanghai gold and New York gold, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [5][15] - Globally, gold prices generally fluctuate in the same direction. From 2014 - 2025, after removing outliers, the change in the gold cross - market spread was mainly affected by regional gold price fluctuations, with the exchange - rate impact accounting for an average of 11.4% and the gold - price impact accounting for an average of 87.9% [16] - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is one of the factors affecting the Sino - US gold spread, but its impact is relatively smaller than that of regional gold price changes. When the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, the gold spread widens; when the RMB depreciates, the spread narrows. However, arbitrage trading makes the gold cross - market spread tend to converge, and when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly, the impact of the gold price and the exchange rate on the spread is often opposite, offsetting each other [20] 3. Spread Formation Reason Analysis - Regional gold price differences may mainly come from regional policy changes or short - term supply - demand imbalances. For example, in early 2025, the expectation of the US to impose tariffs on imported gold led to a significant widening of the COMEX - London spot gold spread. In early 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic also caused the Sino - US and Euro - US gold price spreads to widen. In the long term, the gold cross - market spread center may slowly rise [24][25] - Although the impact of exchange - rate changes on the gold cross - market spread is small, large exchange - rate changes can cause short - term spread fluctuations. The gold cross - market spread implies the market's expectation of the exchange rate. When the market has no obvious expectation of exchange - rate changes, the exchange - rate impact on the gold cross - market spread is weak. Currently, there is no obvious deviation between the exchange rate implied by the gold price and the actual offshore exchange rate, so it has little impact on the gold spread [28][29] 4. Gold Cross - Market Spread Summary - The report analyzes the gold cross - market spread structure, formation reasons, and future development expectations. The spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term regional gold price differences may bring arbitrage opportunities, while current exchange - rate expectations offer few opportunities. Future attention can be paid to US tariff expectations [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of global trade frictions, the market focuses on the silver catch - up market. Short - term catch - up expectations may drive the silver price to break through upwards, but there are still uncertainties in interest rate cuts and economic expectations, and sudden risk events may increase the long - position holding pressure [2] - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile throughout the year, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. Fed's long - term loose monetary policy and expected 2 interest rate cuts this year drive the silver price, but in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts, the gold - silver ratio rises, and the industrial demand for silver is expected to decline negatively in 2025, which may put pressure on the silver price [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, Trump's policies and increased market expectations of Fed's interest rate cuts to 4 times promoted the silver price to run strongly. In the second quarter, Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude of not being eager to cut interest rates led to a short - term silver price plunge, but later the suspension of tariff implementation and the easing of Sino - US trade relations pushed the silver price to a new high in June [11] 2. Silver Catch - up Logic 2.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the price relationship between gold and silver. Its central value has been rising. The change is affected by factors such as the US dollar credit and economic expectations. A decline in the gold - silver ratio usually occurs in the economic expansion stage, while an increase occurs in the stage of rising economic uncertainty [15][20] 2.2 Comparison of Gold and Silver Performance in Bull Markets - There have been three major bull markets in the history of gold and silver prices. In the first stage of each bull market, the gold price usually starts to rise first, and in the second stage, the silver price is likely to start first. In 5 out of 6 upward stages, the silver price outperformed the gold price [22] 2.3 Conditions for Silver to Start Catch - up - When the future economic certainty increases or there is no recession expectation and inflation is expected to rise, the gold - silver ratio will usually be repaired downward. Currently, it is not a suitable stage for silver catch - up trading due to economic uncertainties and uncertainties in Fed's interest rate cuts this year [26][27] 3. Investment Demand Analysis 3.1 Real Interest Rate Analysis - The real interest rate represented by TIPS yield is negatively correlated with the silver ETP position. The real interest rate is affected by the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cuts this year has changed, and currently, the market expects 2 interest rate cuts this year [33] 3.2 Future Investment Demand Analysis - Fed is facing a dilemma of rising inflation and economic downturn due to Trump's new policies, and there are many variables in interest rate cuts this year. However, the long - term loose monetary policy is expected to support the long - term investment demand for silver [38] 4. Industrial Demand Analysis 4.1 Photovoltaic Silver Demand Analysis - In 2025, the expected growth rate of photovoltaic silver demand turns negative, mainly affected by the innovation of photovoltaic cell technology and the change of photovoltaic policies. The innovation of photovoltaic cell technology has a significant impact, and policy changes may also reduce the domestic photovoltaic installation expectations [40][41][44] 5. Market Outlook - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. The long - term loose monetary policy and expected interest rate cuts support the silver price, but factors such as the rising gold - silver ratio in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts and the decline in industrial demand may put pressure on the silver price. The tariff policy is a key factor affecting the silver price [48]