中债策略周报 2025.2.10-2025.2.16 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：1月信贷数据实现"开门红"；实体贷款新增5.2万亿元，同比多增3793亿元，其 中企业中长期贷款明显回升，说明建筑业、制造业新增项目逐渐启动；M1较前值回落0.8个百分点至 0.4%，主要受高基数影响。货币政策方面，Q4货政执行报告中新增"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"， 并在"强化逆周期调节"后新增"择机调整优化政策力度和节奏，预示今年货币宽松力度加大；公开 市场操作方面，"本周央行净回笼4849亿元，其中逆回购投放10303亿元，到期16052亿元。 资金面：本周资金面继续收紧，DR001、R001周均值分别较前一周上行7bp、6bp，隔夜和7天资金 利率利差此间大幅缩小甚至倒挂，资金分层现象整体较节前缓解。 基本面和货币政策来看，1月金融数据实现"开门红"，反应政策端对供给 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic high-frequency data indicates a mixed performance across various sectors, with production rates showing divergence compared to the same period last year [11]. - Consumer spending has seen a significant boost during the Spring Festival, with box office revenues reaching new highs and passenger car sales remaining at elevated levels [17]. - The real estate market is experiencing a post-holiday recovery, with increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand housing [21][22]. - Recent data shows a decline in domestic and international shipping rates, indicating a weakening trend in import and export activities [27]. - Price indices for agricultural products and pork continue to decline, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in these sectors [31]. Summary by Sections Production - The production sector shows varied performance, with the operating rates for different industries fluctuating significantly compared to last year [11]. Consumption - The film box office revenue for the week reached 646 million yuan, down from 710.5 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 64.5 million yuan [7]. - Daily average sales of passenger cars (retail) were reported at 75,966.2 units, down from 77,605.85 units, a decrease of 1,639.65 units [7]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 115.41 million square meters, up 49.7% from the previous week [7]. - The transaction area for second-hand housing in major cities increased significantly, indicating a resurgence in market activity [21]. Import and Export - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,758.82, down 137.83 from the previous value [8]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 792, a decrease of 23 from the previous week [8]. Price Inflation - The wholesale price index for agricultural products dropped to 121.94, down 2.62 from the previous week [8]. - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 21.78 yuan per kilogram, down 1.03 yuan [8]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing increased to 784.63 million, up 200.28 million from the previous week [8]. - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 14,019.71, down 581.14 from the previous week [8].

报告导读 研 究 — 期 货 研 究 报 告 2024 年 12 月以来金价表现亮眼，伦敦金现价格较 12 月 2600 美元/盎司的低 点升至 2869 美元/盎司，累计涨幅超过 10%。与此同时，纽约 COMEX 黄金期货 活跃合约价与伦敦金现价的价差持续走高，1 月期间两者的价差一度达到 60 美元/盎司，升水率一度超过 2%；黄金期现价格大幅走高的背后，一是源于特 朗普关税政策担忧，市场认为黄金进出口或将受到贸易战的波及；二是市场的 套利需求增加，2024 年 11 月以来，机构投资者便开始加大黄金现货的囤货力 度，央行的买盘力量对黄金期货溢价也有一定提振。短期来看，鉴于贸易战存 在进一步升级可能，黄金交易商囤货和央行买盘力量的双重支撑下，黄金期现 溢价仍将处于高位，这将使得外盘黄金的跨市场套利机会仍存，值得持续关注； 另外，鉴于当前黄金仍处在"正向市场"，主力合约和远期合约存在约 20 美 元/盎司的价差，因此还可以留意黄金期货主力连续合约在跨月时可能存在的 "向上跳空"行情。 | 投资要点 | | --- | 特朗普关税政策担忧和套利需求推动金价走高 2 月 1 日，特朗普政府签署行政令，对来自加 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 [Table _main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2024 年 11 月 *略报生 2024 年 11 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 场策 略研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------| | | | | | 报告导读 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | 三季度 GDP4.6%，平减指数连续 5 个季度为负，反应前三季度经济仍处于弱修 | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 复状态，但 9 月经济数据环比出现改善，工业生产、固定资产投资和消费不同 | 联系电话： | 852-9658 1360 | | 程度回升。债市表现同样震荡，在经济数据影响下先下后上，10Y 累计下行幅 | ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.86%, up by 0.77% from the previous week[4] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 81.7%, an increase of 0.89%[4] - The operating rate for full steel tires surged to 60.72%, a significant rise of 11.02%[4] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to CNY 51.5 million, a decrease of CNY 152.8 million compared to the previous week[4] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 62,995.65 units, down by 814.1 units[4] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 73,195.55 units, a decline of 3,534.75 units[4] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 252.26 million square meters, an increase of 33.86% from the previous week[4] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 838.91 million square meters, down by 1,302.73 million square meters[4] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 7.85%, up by 4.22%[4] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 2,062.15, a decrease of 0.42%[5] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) dropped to 1,405.22, down by 71.76[5] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased to 129.55, a decline of 3.23%[5]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.86%, up by 0.77% from the previous week[6] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 81.7%, an increase of 0.89%[6] - The full tire steel operating rate surged to 60.72%, reflecting an 11.02% increase[6] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped significantly to CNY 51.5 million, a decrease of CNY 152.8 million compared to the previous week[6] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 62,995.65 units, down by 814.1 units[6] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 73,195.55 units, a decline of 3,534.75 units[6] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 252.26 million square meters, an increase of 33.86% from the previous week[6] - The sales-to-inventory ratio for the top 10 cities decreased to 90.07%, down by 4.67%[6] - The land premium rate for the top 100 cities increased to 7.85%, up by 4.22%[6] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) slightly decreased to 2,062.15, down by 0.42%[7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell to 1,405.22, a significant drop of 71.76[7] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased to 129.55, down by 3.23%[7]

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 冲突升级，给红海局势再次带来了一层迷雾。 巴以停火曲折反复，欧线运费或已见顶 ──集运欧线旺季维持强势，但运价已出现疲软迹象 器部 t st stare the see the see and the sent of the see and the seen and the seen and the seen and the seen and the sent of the see and the sent and the sent of the sering the s 操作 。 套利：等待做缩 EC2410-EC2412 价差入场机会。 http://www.cnzsqh.hk 1/13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_page] 商品期货策略研究 商 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|----- ...

1 本周美债收益率维持下行趋势，周二10年期美债拍卖结果优于预期，5月CPI环比低于预期和6月 FOMC会议偏鸽声明使10Y美债收益率由上周4.45%的高点回落至4.22%。 流动性和供需：本周流动性边际收紧，SOFR周度均值回落2个bp，商业银行准备金规模维持在3.4万 亿美元上下，ON RRP周内中枢较上个月回落约500亿美元，主因6月15日美国私人/企业部门缴税期 到来，同时6月美债净发行规模抬升至1791亿美元（前值1106亿美元）。 当前曲线做陡策略仍是最佳选择；下半年若非美央行与美联储货币政策差异加大，可以择机增加久期， 进而捕捉中线债券价格的反弹机会。 美债供需跟踪 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------|------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 美债策略周报 2024.6.10-2024.6.16 | ...