Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The report covers the valuation of major indices in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI), Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) [9][13][17]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report analyzes the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios of various industries since early 2018, indicating that no industries are undervalued (PE below 20%) [24]. - Industries with PE ratios below the 50th percentile include Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Utilities [24]. - The report highlights that industries with relatively high valuations (PE above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare, Financials, and Telecommunications [24]. - For Price-to-Book (PB) ratios, no industries are undervalued (PB below 20%), while Utilities and Real Estate have PB ratios below the 50th percentile [28]. - Industries with high PB valuations (above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Financials, Information Technology, and Telecommunications [28]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report includes insights on the premium/discount levels of AH shares, although specific numerical data is not provided in the summary [32].

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥179.99 billion with a holding change of 119,120,888 shares[8] - Horizon Robotics-W (9660.HK) ranked second with a net buy of ¥37.96 billion, increasing its holdings by 371,459,400 shares[8] - Pop Mart (9992.HK) led the net sell list with a net sell amount of -¥25.29 billion, decreasing its holdings by 9,136,051 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights significant net buying in the Consumer Discretionary sector, particularly with companies like Alibaba and Meituan[11] - Financial sector companies like Ping An (2318.HK) and AIA (1299.HK) also saw substantial net buying, indicating investor confidence in financial services[8] - The Information Technology sector experienced notable net selling, particularly with companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥87.74 billion and a net buy of ¥20.76 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had a trading volume of ¥50.99 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥16.35 billion, indicating a decline in investor interest[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) showed a trading volume of ¥31.72 billion with a slight net buy of ¥1.85 billion, suggesting stable investor confidence[18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount in the Hong Kong stock market for the week was HKD 55.8 billion, a significant increase from HKD 42.5 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases rose to 59, up from 42 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase activity with an amount of HKD 275.29 million, followed by China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 146.01 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the financial and materials sectors, indicating a strategic focus in these industries[13] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies participating in repurchases, totaling 17, while the consumer discretionary sector followed with 15 companies[13] - Notably, the repurchase amount for China Hongqiao represented 0.60% of its total share capital, the highest among the top repurchasing companies[9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The bond market's repair progress this week was poor, and the expected "stock - bond seesaw" effect did not occur despite significant fluctuations in equity indices around the military parade. Long - term 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields changed by - 1.3 and +1 bps to 1.77% and 2.03% respectively, while the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 1.39% [3][12]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. Seasonally, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation value gradually becomes attractive [6]. - In terms of strategy, the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases, the pressure on the money market may continuously affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best option [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest - rate bond market: The 1 - year and 3 - year yields rose by 3 and 1 bps respectively, while the yields of 5 - year and above generally declined by 1 - 3 bps. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields changed by - 1.3 and +1 bps to 1.77% and 2.03% respectively. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 1.39%. The 10 - year yield of policy - bank bonds remained stable at 1.87% [3][12][15]. - Credit - bond market: On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields declined by 2, 1, and 5 bps respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance - Local government bonds: This week, 934 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 30 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 178 billion yuan of new special bonds (162 billion yuan of special special bonds), 756 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: This week, 3491 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 2890 billion yuan, including 820 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - bank bonds: This week, 1205 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 805 billion yuan [20]. Money Market - At the beginning of the month, the central bank routinely withdrew the funds injected across months, but the money - market rates remained low. The overnight rates quickly recovered to pre - cross - month levels on the first day of the month, with R001 and DR001 down 6 and 2 bps respectively to 1.36% and 1.31%. The 7 - day money - market rates showed a similar trend, with R007 and DR007 falling on the first day of the month and then fluctuating around 1.46% and 1.44% [26]. - Most inter - bank certificate of deposit yields rose this week, except for the 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit yield, which declined by 0.9 bps to 1.45%. The weighted issuance term extended to 6.1 months [29]. Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose stance in the second half of the year under the "moderately loose" monetary - policy tone [34]. - This week, the central bank net withdrew 1.2 trillion yuan, including 1.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases. The net payment of government bonds was 0.1 trillion yuan [34]. - The CPI in July had a 0% year - on - year increase, higher than the expected - 0.1%, while the PPI remained at - 3.6% year - on - year, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. The July social - financing data may not be optimistic [35]. - Given that the Fed is likely to restart rate cuts in September, the expectation of double cuts (interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts) may rise in mid - to - late August [35]. - In the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. The 30 - year bond, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35].

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 4.25 billion, a decrease from HKD 4.71 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases increased to 42 from 25 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.753 billion[10] Group 2: Company-Specific Data - Tencent Holdings repurchased 454.90 million shares, accounting for 0.05% of its total share capital[9] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 600.44 million, representing 0.03% of its total share capital[9] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 543.15 million, which is 0.22% of its total share capital[9] Group 3: Industry Insights - The information technology sector saw the highest concentration of repurchase amounts during the week[13] - Both the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors had the most companies engaging in repurchases, with 10 companies each[13] - Financial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors each had 5 companies participating in repurchases[13] Group 4: Implications of Buybacks - Company buybacks are often seen as a signal that management believes the stock is undervalued[21] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, indicating potential future price increases[21] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five buyback waves since 2008, all coinciding with bear markets followed by upward trends[21]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. According to seasonal patterns, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. From the end of August to the peak, the adjustment was 5.25bp - 13bp, and the median adjustment to the September central level was 2.59bp. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate further breaks through to 1.8%, it will return to the cost - pricing framework above OMO + 40bp, and the allocation portfolio will gradually have cost - effectiveness [6] - Given that the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September, if the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the money market may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, using a barbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [6] - Looking at the second half of the year, with the Fed likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, combined with weak domestic demand and the global trend of returning to interest rate cuts, the expectation of double - rate cuts may increase in mid - to - late August. For the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. It is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration, and the 30 - year variety, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35] Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of interest - rate bonds, the 1 - year yield remained stable at 1.37%, while the yields of 3 - year and above increased by 3 - 5bp, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields rising 4bp and 3bp to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively. The trend of policy - bank bonds was similar to that of Treasuries, with the yields of each term decreasing by about 2 - 3bp [15] - In the credit - bond market, medium - and long - term varieties were under pressure. On the implied AA + urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 3bp, 8bp, and 9bp respectively, with the yields of 3 - year and above generally returning above 2.0%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 4bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively, with the adjustment amplitudes of the 3 - year and 5 - year yields larger than those of the same - term policy - bank bond varieties [15] Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, local bonds were issued at 369.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 201.3 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 68 billion yuan of special special bonds), 95.8 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20] - Treasury bonds were issued at 392.7 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 352.6 billion yuan, including 83.1 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20] - Policy - bank bonds were issued at 164 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 162 billion yuan [20] - Specific issuance details of some interest - rate bonds are provided in the table, including various Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds, with information on trading codes, bond names, issuance scales, issuance terms, and coupon rates [19] Funds Market Situation - With the central bank's liquidity injection, the money market during the tax period remained stable. Under the central bank's protection, cross - month interest rates were relatively stable. The weekly averages of R001 and DR001 decreased significantly compared to the previous week (tax period), dropping 13bp and 14bp respectively, DR007 also decreased by 1bp, and R007 increased slightly due to cross - month effects, with the weekly average rising 1bp [26] - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45% respectively, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp compared to the previous week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28% respectively, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp compared to the previous week [26] - Affected by the tightening of the money market during the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields increased. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year yields increased by 3bp, 2bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 1.55%, 1.61%, and 1.67%. The weighted issuance period extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months in the previous week. As the money market tightened more than expected during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.15 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.13 trillion yuan [29] China Bond Market Macro Environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has remained below 100 in the past week. With the continuous global "de - dollarization" trend, the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone, the central bank may maintain a loose stance [34] - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 4.95 billion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases, a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases, and a net withdrawal of 0.1 trillion yuan from treasury deposits at banks [34] - In terms of fundamentals, in July, CPI year - on - year growth was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%, and the commodity retail sub - items showed varying degrees of recovery; PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, remaining in a sluggish state, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. Meanwhile, credit data is to be released in the coming week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the end - of - month bill rate to zero, the social financing data for July may not be optimistic [35] - In terms of monetary policy, due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to remain loose. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations [35]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing structural weaknesses, and inflation rising at a moderate pace [3][5][71] - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in August, while U.S. Treasury yields significantly rebounded, with 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year Treasury yields changing by +3, -14, -35, and -27 basis points respectively [4][14] - The report forecasts that the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields may reach annual lows of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, as the market undergoes deleveraging and the "de-dollarization" process comes to a temporary halt [3][7][110] Group 2 - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries in August totaled $2.26 trillion, down from $2.51 trillion in the previous month, with a significant increase in short-term Treasury bill (T-Bill) issuance [22][23] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of recovery, although overseas investor demand has weakened due to lower yields compared to European and Japanese bonds [24][25] - The report highlights that the Treasury Department is expected to maintain its current debt financing structure, focusing on short-term T-Bill issuance while keeping long-term debt issuance at lower levels [25][26] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment for the U.S. Treasury market is characterized by a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a clear signal for a potential rate cut in September [5][71] - The report notes that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July recorded at 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a potential shift in employment dynamics [77][85] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI and core CPI showing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively, suggesting limited upward pressure on inflation in the near term [79][82]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic data for August shows signs of weakness, with most indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, investment, and real estate sales falling below previous values, while only exports accelerated [3][5][85] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed a nearly 10-year high, driven by improved market risk appetite under the influence of wide credit policies [3][4] - The report highlights a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy as the main logic in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.7925% during the month [3][4][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis reveals that the manufacturing PMI for July marginally increased to 49.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy for the third quarter [5][29] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy has been relatively supportive, with significant net injections of funds in August, including a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan [24][71] - The bond market strategy suggests adopting a barbell strategy to balance liquidity and yield, especially if the 10-year government bond yield breaks the 1.8% resistance level [6][85] Group 3 - The report discusses the government bond issuance situation, indicating that local government bond issuance in August was 977.6 billion yuan, which is lower than planned by 183.2 billion yuan [19] - It is projected that the supply pressure of government bonds in September may decrease compared to August, with an expected net financing scale of 1.3 trillion yuan [19][20] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance is influenced by the dynamics of the stock market, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect expected to weaken in September [85] Group 4 - The analysis of the overseas economic environment indicates that the process of de-dollarization has slowed, while downward pressure on the US economy has begun to emerge [73][84] - The report highlights that foreign investment in China's bond market has been on the rise, with foreign holdings reaching 4.39 trillion yuan by June [73][76] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could impact the Chinese bond market, necessitating close monitoring of overseas economic data [77][84]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 4.71 billion, a significant increase from HKD 790 million the previous week[11] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases rose to 25, up from 17 the previous week[11] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.75 billion[11] Group 2: Company-Specific Data - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) ranked second with a repurchase amount of HKD 756 million[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) was third with a repurchase of HKD 685 million[11] - The repurchase quantity for Tencent was 464.20 thousand shares, representing 0.05% of its total share capital[10] Group 3: Industry Insights - The information technology sector saw the highest concentration of repurchase amounts during this period[14] - The consumer discretionary sector had the most companies engaging in repurchases, totaling 8 firms[14] - Financial and healthcare sectors followed with 4 companies each participating in repurchases[14] Group 4: Historical Context - The Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of repurchase trends since 2008, typically occurring during bear markets[21] - These repurchase waves are often followed by subsequent market rallies, indicating a potential bullish signal[21]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Life (2628.HK) with a net buy amount of 4.327 billion CNY, representing an increase of 174,625,000 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net buy amount of 3.143 billion CNY, increasing by 121,631,600 shares[8] - The top net sell company is Kuaishou (1024.HK) with a net sell amount of -1.734 billion CNY, decreasing by 23,156,028 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - Financial sector shows significant net buying, led by China Life and AIA Group (1299.HK) with net buys of 4.327 billion CNY and 1.433 billion CNY respectively[8] - The consumer discretionary sector also sees strong net buying, particularly from Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy of 2.213 billion CNY[8] - The technology sector has mixed results, with Tencent (0700.HK) showing a net buy of 2.538 billion CNY while Kuaishou (1024.HK) shows a net sell[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Tencent (0700.HK) is the most active stock with a total trading volume of 3.527 billion CNY and a net buy of 1.618 billion CNY[19] - Meituan (3690.HK) also shows high activity with a trading volume of 2.744 billion CNY and a net buy of 789 million CNY[19] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) had a trading volume of 4.148 billion CNY but a significant net sell of -4.130 billion CNY[22]