Group 1 - The report indicates that June economic data showed a slowdown, with retail and personal consumption expenditures falling short of expectations, and Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [2][3][4] - Despite the economic slowdown, employment data remained resilient, leading the market to maintain a "soft landing" outlook for the economy [2][3] - In June, U.S. stock markets reached new historical highs, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +25.3, +24, +23.9, and +29.5 basis points respectively by the end of June [3][12] - The 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 49.8 basis points at the end of the month [3][12] Group 3 - The macro environment analysis indicates that the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate at 4%-4.25% in June, with a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty [4][66] - The report notes a significant divergence among FOMC members regarding the expected rate cuts and inflation outlook for the year [4][66] Group 4 - The report projects that the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to foreign investors may decline due to the yield on U.S. Treasuries being lower than that of European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [6][19] - It suggests that the long-end U.S. Treasury rates have stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury still offering high allocation value in the 4.4%-4.5% range [6][19] Group 5 - The report recommends short-term trading within the 4.2%-4.5% range while waiting for a turning point in interest rates, such as significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data or inflation data [6][19] - Specific recommended instruments include TLT, TMF, and 10-year and longer Treasury futures [6][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market showed mixed performance in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.42% and 3.27% respectively, closing at 3457.8 and 10476.3 [3][11] - The bond market experienced a positive response as potential negative variables related to tariff negotiations and regulatory concerns were resolved, leading to a greater decline in short-term rates compared to long-term rates [3][11] - The report suggests that while there may not be significant directional opportunities in the bond market, the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks in July could lead to a gradual decline in interest rates [6][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in May showed a mixed picture, with GDP growth estimated at approximately 5.35% year-on-year, driven by strong consumer demand, while exports, investments, and real estate sales showed varying degrees of slowdown [5][33] - The manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery, although employment and service sector indicators showed a decline [5][33] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy stance has become clearer, with expectations of no immediate rate cuts, reflecting a more hawkish tone in the second quarter meeting [5][82] Group 3 - The report indicates that government bond issuance pressure in June was higher than in May, with a net issuance of 33,802 billion yuan, which is significantly more than the previous year [17][18] - The anticipated net issuance of government bonds in July is expected to range between 1.46 to 1.60 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of external economic factors, particularly U.S. monetary policy, on the Chinese bond market [86][90]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 6.61 billion, a significant improvement from HKD 3.96 billion the previous week[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares increased to 55 from 53 in the previous week[12] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.50 billion[12] Group 2: Top Repurchasing Companies - The top three companies by repurchase amount were Tencent Holdings (HKD 2.50 billion), Chow Tai Fook (HKD 1.57 billion), and AIA Group (HKD 1.15 billion)[12] - Chow Tai Fook's repurchase accounted for 1.23% of its total share capital[11] - AIA Group's repurchase represented 0.16% of its total share capital[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the Information Technology, Financial, and Consumer Discretionary sectors, driven by major repurchases from Tencent, Chow Tai Fook, and AIA[15] - The Information Technology and Healthcare sectors had the highest number of companies initiating repurchases, with 12 companies each[15] - The Consumer Discretionary sector ranked second with 9 companies participating in repurchases[15] Group 4: Significance of Share Buybacks - Share buybacks are defined as companies using cash to repurchase their own shares from the secondary market[24] - Large-scale buyback trends often occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[24] - Historical data shows that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have typically been followed by upward market trends[24]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 73.40%, down 0.54% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate increased to 83.84%, up 0.45% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 78.61%, down 4.39% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue is 28,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 9,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars are 60,333.45 units, down 593.05 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars are 75,186.70 units, down 371.50 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is 205.32 million square meters, an increase of 28.45% from the previous week[7] - The land transaction premium rate in 100 major cities is 7.09%, up 5.64% from the previous week[7] - The area of land sold in 100 major cities is 828.87 million square meters, down 428.98 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai export container freight index is 1,869.59, down 218.65 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 CNY/kg, up 0.07 CNY from the previous week[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) shows overall weak food prices, while the producer price index (PPI) indicates a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[40][42] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing is 1,023.73 million, an increase of 58.08% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is 12,848.43, up 432.71 from the previous week[8]

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy amount of 34.80 billion CNY, increasing holdings by 450,164,470 shares[8] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) ranks second with a net buy of 24.87 billion CNY, with 19,338,868 shares added[8] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of -48.10 billion CNY, reducing holdings by 9,515,111 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - Financial sector shows significant net buying, led by China Construction Bank and China Life Insurance, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Tencent and Xiaomi, experienced substantial net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns about growth prospects in this industry[9] - The consumer discretionary sector, including Meituan and BYD, also saw mixed results with both net buying and selling activities, suggesting varied investor sentiment[8][9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a total trading volume of 40.19 billion CNY and a net sell of -6.40 billion CNY[18] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Meituan (3690.HK) had a trading volume of 34.09 billion CNY with a net sell of -4.31 billion CNY[19] - The trading activity indicates high volatility in these stocks, with significant fluctuations in net buying and selling over the week[18][19]

宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 分析师： 沈凡超 中央编号： BTT231 联系电话： 852-4623 5564 邮箱： hector@cnzsqh.hk 1 2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 目录 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 73.94 | 74. 91 | e -0.97 | | 高炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83. 39 | 83. 54 | P -0. 15 | | PX开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 86. 31 | 86. 61 | P -0. 30 | | PTA开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83 | 82. 74 | দম 0. 26 | | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market experienced a "V" shaped reversal in yields due to rising oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining by a total of 10.7 basis points during the week [3][10][74] - The May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while core CPI and PPI data were below expectations, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs [4][54][75] - The report forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% in the coming months, with a high allocation value at the 4.5% yield level, corresponding to a price of 110 [4][74][76] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3, while short-term T-Bill issuance continues to be high [19][23][20] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong despite high short positions, with the total short position in 2-year Treasuries rising to $420.2 billion, reflecting ongoing basis trading [28][24][32] - The liquidity in the Treasury market is observed to be adequate, with the SOFR rate averaging 4.28% and the ON RRP usage increasing to $183.35 billion per day [37][43][46] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment shows that inflation is not expected to rebound significantly, with the report suggesting that the economic downturn pressure outweighs inflationary pressures [66][75][76] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve may misjudge inflation trends, potentially leading to a resumption of quantitative easing if financial stability risks increase [73][74][76] - The overall economic outlook indicates that the U.S. economy may face two scenarios: increased pressure from trade wars or financial stability risks due to declining stock and bond markets [75][76]

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 2 n 本周市场受地缘政治扰动，呈现出先扬后抑的走势，本周略微收涨。恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +0.89%/+0.42%/-0.89%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，医疗保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超8.5%，排在 第一；原材料业涨幅排在第二，周涨幅近7.0%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至74%，估值水平超5年均值。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：5月国内通胀表现仍偏弱，后续或继续承压；5月社融信贷数据继续不及预期，私人部门融资仍然偏弱。 n 资金面：5月美国CPI继续不及预期，关税对物价影响低于预期，或主要由于前期美国抢进口后的备货较为充足。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内通胀表现仍较弱，经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举； ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...