宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/3/3 2月PMI数据点评—— 春节及政策效应共助数据回升 目录 1、春节因素叠加政策效应，制造业PMI季节性反弹 2、建筑业及服务业表现分化，非制造业扩张不及预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 ➢ 中国2月官方制造业PMI50.2，预期49.9，前值49.1。 ➢ 中国2月非制造业PMI50.4，预期50.5，前值50.2。 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 | 项 目 | 较前值 | | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024/6 | | 2024/5 | 2024/4 | 2024/3 | 2024/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 制造业PMI | 1 | 1 . | 50 2 . | | 49 1 . | ...

买入/维持 2025 年 03 月 03 日 公司点评 北京人力(600861) 目标价: 昨收盘:19.89 拟 4.4 亿转让黄寺公司 聚焦人力资源主业 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/3/4 24/5/15 24/7/26 24/10/6 24/12/17 25/2/27 定价采用资产基础法，更能反映资产的市场价值。交易资产主要为投 资性房地产，定价公允性方面，评估方法结合收益法与市场法，覆盖了商 业地产的租金收益预期和区位稀缺性价值，逻辑较为严谨。 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 5.66/3.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 112.6/72.91 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 22.53/12.92 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<外包业务保持高增速 组织架构整 合提效>>--2024-11-06 <<资产置换转型人服赛道 数字化建 设助力企业发展>>--2022-07-17 证券分析师：王湛 电话： E-MAIL：wangzhan@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190517100 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of consolidation in the civil explosives industry, with a focus on transformation and upgrading to support internationalization [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions" aimed at promoting the civil explosives industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, enhancing both quality and safety levels [3][4]. - By the end of 2027, the implementation opinions aim for widespread application of unmanned production lines in civil explosives, with a significant reduction in hazardous operations and an increase in industry concentration, forming 3 to 5 large enterprises with strong international competitiveness [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuous promotion of supply-side structural reforms, leading to further industry consolidation and the encouragement of cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers among civil explosive enterprises [4][5]. - The report also notes the encouragement of international cooperation, with civil explosive companies actively participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative and expanding exports of products like industrial electronic detonators [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The civil explosives industry plays a crucial role in national economic construction and social development, with strict regulatory measures in place due to the flammable and explosive nature of the products [6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue consolidating, benefiting leading domestic enterprises, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as Yipuli [6].

2025-03-03 行业周报 看好/维持 航空航天与国防Ⅲ 工业资本货物 军工行业周报(2025.02.24-2025.03.02)：南部战区、中国海警位黄岩岛领海及周 边区域开展警巡 走势比较 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Feb/24 Mar/24 Apr/24 May/24 Jun/24 Jul/24 Aug/24 Sep/24 Oct/24 Nov/24 Dec/24 Jan/25 航空航天与国防 沪深300 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 行业观点： 国际地缘政治紧张局势加剧，全球进入新一轮军备扩张周期。近 年来，我国在绝大多数年份国防支出预算增速均高于 GDP 增速。我们 认为，中国的国防支出仍有较大增长空间，未来或将长期高于 GDP 增 速。2025 年是"十四五"收官之年，行业有望摆脱近两年的低迷 期，迎来全面复苏的景气拐点。随着订单恢复正常并陆续释放，军工 板块或将进入业绩改善与估值提升的"戴维斯双击"阶段，建议关注 先进战机、低空经济、国产大飞机、卫星互联网、水下攻防等领域中 竞争格局好、技术壁垒高的优质龙头公司。 风险提示： 【太平洋证券】国防 ...

祥生医疗点评报告：横向拓展革新超声应用边界，SonoAI 赋能强 化纵深 2025 年 03 月 03 日 公司点评 买入/维持 祥生医疗(688358) 昨收盘:33.54 ◼ 走势比较 <<祥生医疗点评报告：汇兑波动影响 第三季度利润表现，和飞利浦合作未 来可期>>--2023-10-29 <<祥生医疗点评报告：疫后采购需求 恢复常态，新技术新产品持续发 力>>--2023-09-04 证券分析师：谭紫媚 电话：0755-83688830 E-MAIL：tanzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190520090001 (40%) (26%) (12%) 2% 16% 30% 24/3/4 24/5/15 24/7/26 24/10/6 24/12/17 25/2/27 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 1.12/1.12 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 37.61/37.61 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 40.91/18.82 | | (元) | | 研究助理：李啸岩 相关研究报告 电话：17717408201 E-MAIL：lixiaoyan ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The recruitment market is experiencing a structural recovery, driven by technological empowerment within the industry ecosystem [1][11]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.79 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 204 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year [4][9]. - The flexible employment business is expected to maintain rapid growth, with an increase of approximately 6,900 outsourced positions by the end of Q3, and an anticipated total increase of over 10,000 positions for the year [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.79 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.6% [9]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 204 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.5% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.03 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23x [6][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.79 billion yuan, 14.03 billion yuan, and 16.49 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 20.6%, 18.96%, and 17.55% [9]. - The net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 204 million yuan, 249 million yuan, and 302 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.5%, 22.12%, and 21.57% [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on structural demand in the recruitment market, particularly in high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digitalization [5][6]. - The integration of technology into services and platforms is a key strategy, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and drive business growth [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Beijing Renli (600861) with a target price based on the last closing price of 19.89 [1][4]. Core Views - Beijing Renli plans to transfer its wholly-owned subsidiary, Huangsi Company, for no less than 440 million yuan, focusing on its core human resources business [4][5]. - The transaction is expected to release 440 million yuan in cash flow, which can be used for debt repayment or expansion of the main business, thereby improving overall asset return rates [5][6]. - The asset transfer reflects the company's commitment to concentrate on its core business and is anticipated to enhance financial statements in the short term while consolidating competitive advantages in the human resources sector in the long term [6][8]. Financial Summary - The total share capital is 566 million shares, with a market capitalization of 11.26 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 7.291 billion yuan [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 43.71 billion yuan, 50.10 billion yuan, and 57.35 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.09%, 14.62%, and 14.48% [8]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 851.79 million yuan, 949.62 million yuan, and 1.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of 55.44%, 11.49%, and 10.70% [8]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 1.50 yuan, 1.68 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13X, 12X, and 10X [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The recruitment market is experiencing a structural recovery, driven by technological empowerment within the industry ecosystem [1][11]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.79 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 204 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company is focusing on structural demand in the recruitment market, particularly in high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digitalization [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of 68.26 million yuan, marking a significant growth of 40.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company’s revenue growth rates for the four quarters were 10.3%, 22.9%, 23.1%, and 25.6%, indicating a positive trend [5]. - The projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 11.79 billion yuan, 14.03 billion yuan, and 16.49 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 204 million yuan, 249 million yuan, and 302 million yuan [9][12]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is enhancing its digital and technological capabilities to drive business development, focusing on a unique ecosystem model that integrates technology, services, and platforms [6][11]. - The flexible workforce business is expected to maintain rapid growth, with an anticipated increase of over 10,000 outsourced positions by year-end [5][6]. - The company aims to integrate platform products and improve data management to enhance recruitment efficiency through AI-driven solutions [6][11].

2025 年 03 月 03 日 投资策略 无人问津与人声鼎沸 核心观点： A 股科技行情未完待续，短期风格面临调整——从成长、 4） 绩优股指数/亏损股指数的比值已经下降到了低位，意味着上涨 对未来已经透支。 5） PMI 重回扩张区间，房地产跌幅收窄，叠加整体估值较低，消费 板块兼具胜率与赔率。 6） 交易视角上，3 月中证 1000 看跌期权隐含波动率大幅上升，意 味着市场在对冲中证 1000 潜在的风险。 资产判断： 美国市场预计将再次迎接滞胀和衰退的叙事，短期美股可能开启月 度级别的调整，美债则面临牛平的压力。一方面美国近期的经济数据持续 不及预期，美国花旗经济意外指数跌至负值，受关税造成的抢进口拖累亚 特兰大 GDPNOW 对美国经济一季度增长从 2.3%大幅下滑至-1.5%。另一方 面美国通胀预期却呈现快速走强的趋势，密歇根 5 年通胀预期创下 2020 年以来最高值。经济走弱而通胀预期走强符合滞胀的叙事。但长期来看， 美股牛市和美债利率高位震荡的底层逻辑未改，投资者应静待长期买点 出现。美股牛市和美债利率高位难以下行的根本原因在于疫情后的大规模 财政刺激改善了私人部门的资产负债表，以及 AI ...

(20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 24/3/4 24/5/15 24/7/26 24/10/6 24/12/17 25/2/27 电子 沪深300 2025 年 03 月 03 日 行业周报 看好/维持 电子 电子 英伟达发布 FY25Q4 财报，Blackwell 出货超预期 走势比较 相关研究报告 << 太 平 洋 电 子 周 报 20250120- 20250124>>--2025-01-27 <<太平洋证券公司点评-汇顶科技 （603160）：收购云英谷科技，补全业 务版图协同效应优秀>>--2025-01- 22 <<太平洋证券公司点评-恒玄科技 （688608）：Q3 营收创新高，收益端 侧 AI 发展业绩持续提升>>--2025- 01-22 证券分析师：张世杰 E-MAIL：zhangsj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523020001 证券分析师：罗平 E-MAIL：luoping@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524030001 证券分析师：李珏晗 E-MAIL：lijuehan@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080 ...