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广发期货《有色》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 05:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term macro sentiment improves, tin price rebounds, but with Congo - Kinshasa's resumption of production, the supply side is gradually repaired, and the US tariff affects demand expectations. Maintain a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices and follow up on the production dynamics of Burmese tin mines [1]. Nickel - Recently, the trading logic of the nickel market is macro - dominated. The price has fallen below the integrated cost of high - grade nickel matte, and the cost support at the bottom has been strengthened. In the short term, under macro uncertainty and relatively low valuation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait for the macro sentiment to subside and the market to return to fundamental trading [2]. Stainless Steel - The short - term supply of stainless steel is relatively loose, demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and inventory is high with pressure. Affected by the international macro situation, the short - term macro impact has not subsided, and the market is expected to run weakly. The operating range of the main contract is adjusted downward to 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Zinc - The supply side of zinc shows a continuous loosening trend in the ore end. The demand side is relatively stable, but under tariff pressure, the zinc price is under pressure. After the suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy, the tariff pressure is slightly relieved. In the short term, the price is weak, and attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand and domestic policy support [6]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply side has high - level operating capacity, and the demand is stable with limited increments. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the price is supported by phased production cuts. For electrolytic aluminum, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate is slowly increasing, and the terminal consumption recovery is slow. The overseas reciprocal tariff policy is suspended, and the macro pressure is slightly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to cost changes and capacity operation and temporarily wait and see [8]. Copper - Macro factors such as the repeated US reciprocal tariff policy increase copper price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the continuous decline of TC in the early stage of copper ore supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the reference range for the main contract is 73,000 - 76,000 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate lack positive factors. The supply pressure is clear, demand is generally stable, and inventory is high. Under the influence of tariff policies, the export of energy - storage orders may decline. In the short term, the market is expected to run weakly, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended, with the main contract referring to 68,000 - 72,000 [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 256,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97%; SMM 1 tin premium is 1,700 yuan/ton, up 61.90%; LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110.00 dollars/ton, down 320.00% [1]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,025 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 4.48%; LME 0 - 3 is - 175 dollars/ton, up 16.28% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,960 yuan/ton, up 3.42%; the premium is 310 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 19,880 yuan/ton, up 1.79%; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 75,105 yuan/ton, up 3.84%; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,750 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan/ton, up 0.50% [11]. Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is - 200 yuan/ton, up 77.01% compared with the previous value; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 140 yuan/ton, down 92.86% [1]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 10 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous value; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 15 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 80 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 160 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data Tin - In February, the import of tin ore was 8,745 tons, down 11.15% year - on - year; the output of refined tin was 14,050 tons, down 10.45%; the import volume of refined tin was 1,869 tons, down 19.92%; the export volume was 2,373 tons, up 11.36% [1]. Nickel - China's refined nickel output in a certain period was 28,320 tons, down 5.69%; the import volume was 18,897 tons, up 99.27% [2]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 344.01 million tons, up 11.37%; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 42.00 million tons, down 6.67% [4]. Zinc - In March, the output of refined zinc was 54.69 million tons, up 13.70%; in February, the import volume was 3.37 million tons, down 15.27%; the export volume was 0.04 million tons, down 91.04% [6]. Aluminum - In March, the output of alumina was 754.90 million tons, up 8.85%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 371.42 million tons, up 11.22% [8]. Copper - In March, the output of electrolytic copper was 112.21 million tons, up 6.04%; in February, the import volume was 26.80 million tons, up 0.85% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the output of lithium carbonate was 79,065 tons, up 23.44%; the demand was 86,951 tons, up 15.02%; in February, the import volume was 12,328 tons, down 38.73%; the export volume was 417 tons, up 4.65% [11]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory was 9,872.0 tons, up 6.67%; social inventory was 12,004.0 tons, up 4.55%; SHEF daily warehouse receipts were 9,295.0 tons, down 2.35%; LME daily inventory was 3,195.0 tons, down 0.78% [1]. Nickel - SHFE inventory was 36,925 tons, up 14.13%; social inventory was 47,423 tons, up 0.67%; bonded - area inventory was 6,300 tons, unchanged; LME inventory was 203,646 tons, up 0.38%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 24,452 tons, down 3.50% [2]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 56.58 million tons, up 0.53%; the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 38.33 million tons, up 1.13%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 20.00 million tons, down 0.63% [4]. Zinc - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 10.21 million tons, down 6.42%; LME inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 1.10% [6]. Aluminum - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was 74.40 million tons, down 2.75%; LME inventory was 44.6 million tons, down 0.71% [8]. Copper - The domestic social inventory was 26.72 million tons, down 14.80%; the bonded - area inventory was 9.16 million tons, down 4.18%; SHFE inventory was 22.57 million tons, down 4.06%; LME inventory was 20.94 million tons, down 1.18%; COMEX inventory was 11.17 million tons, up 4.22%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 8.95 million tons, down 8.08% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 90,070 tons, up 16.79%; the downstream inventory was 39,293 tons, up 27.94%; the smelter inventory was 50,777 tons, up 9.40% [11].
《能源化工》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 03:20
聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月11日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | . 141 The 44cm 14 11 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2505 收盘价 | 7329 | 7242 | 87 | 1.20% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7237 | 7087 | 150 | 2.12% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7279 | 7194 | 82 | 1.18% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7184 | 7070 | 114 | 1.61% | | | L2505-2509 | 92 | 155 | -63 | -40.65% | 元/吨 | | PP2505-2509 | તેર | 124 | -29 | -23.39% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7270 | 7230 | 40 | 0.55% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 737 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 03:17
知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月11日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 14750 | 14750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -225 | 420 | -645 | -153.57% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14550 | 14000 | 220 | 3.93% | | | 非标价差 | -425 | -330 | -05 | -28.79% | | | 品种 | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.95 | 47.50 | -0.55 | -1.16% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:F ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 02:44
| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月11日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 其元 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3130 | 40 | -1 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3160 | 50 | ਤੇਰੇ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3460 | 3430 | 30 | 289 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3061 | 3013 | 48 | 109 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3139 | 3088 | દા | 31 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3171 | 3128 | 43 | -1 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3240 | 40 | -1 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3200 | 40 | -41 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...
《农产品》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 02:09
| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 王浅辉 | 2025年4月11日 | | | | | | | | | | | 更加 | 4月9日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月10日 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8060 | 7960 | 100 | 1.26% | 现价 | Y2509 | 7674 | 7610 | ୧୯ | 0.84% | 期价 | | 10.29% | Y2509 | 386 | 350 | 36 | 星差 | 现货墓差报价 | 05+400 | 05 + 360 | 40 | 江苏4月 | - | | 仓車 | 0 | 0.00% | 735 | 735 | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 9100 | 150 | 1.65% | 现价 | 广东24度 | ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 01:14
广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 [股指期货] 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨 ...
广发期货日评-20250410
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 06:37
厂家用货号 投资咨询业务资格: 班题许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月10日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2506 | | 指数仍处低位,风险收益比上升,关注后续国内对 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 指数低开高走,市场信心有所恢复 | 冲政策情况带来修复机会,H表现将相对稳定,期 | | | | IC2506 | | 权方面可采取牛市价差策略,卖出虚两档看涨期权 | | | | IM2506 | | 买入平值期权捕捉温和修复收益。 | | | | 12506 | | 单边策略上,建议投资者短期多单持有,如果资金 | | | | TF2506 | 目前关税冲击对债市的利好或尚未释放完毕,但随着国债利率 | 利率出现边际上行,注意及时阶段性止盈。期现策 | | | 国债 | TS2506 | 接近年内前低,长债利率进一步下行暂缓,或需要内外政策进 | 略上,可关注TF\TS品种的正套策略和基差做阔策 | | 金融 | | TL2506 | 一步明确来破局,短期行情 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250410
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 06:28
| 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 品种 | 4月9日 | 4月8日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | 4月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 4月9日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2.66 | 4.2% | POY150/48价格 | -75 | -1.1% | 布伦特原油(6月) | 65.48 | 62.82 | 6540 | 6615 | 美元/桶 | -1.8% | WTI原油(5月) | 2.77 | 4.6% | FDY150/96价格 | -125 | 62.35 | 59.58 | 6815 | 6940 | | | -3.5% | CFR日本石脑油 | 537 | -19 | DTY150/48价格 | -dr | -1.2% | 518 | 7845 | 7940 | -220 | ...
《金融》日报-20250410
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 06:11
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年4月10日 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 品种 | 城新伯 | 较前一日变化 | 2.50% | F期现价差 | -72.79 | 34.16 | 1.20% | | | | | | | | | 28.25 | H期现价差 | -32.90 | 2.00% | 1.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -52.57 | 3.34 | 4.50% | 18.10% | IM期现价差 | -222.73 | -6.31 | 10.00% | 0.30% | | 次月-当月 | -14.80 | 9.20 | 13.50% | 27.50% | 李月-景日 | -41 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250410
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 06:03
知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 法微信公众号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格与基美 | | | | 纪工菲 20013180 | | | 品种 | 4月9日 | 4月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | N型多晶硅料 - 平均价 | 42000.00 | 42000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 务晶硅菜花料-平均价 | 31500.00 | 31500.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 颗粒硅 - 平均价 | 35000.00 | 35000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | N型料基差(平均价) | -245.00 | -405.00 | 160.00 | 39.51% | | | 菜花料基差(平均价) | 1255.00 | 1095.00 | 160.00 | 14.61% | | | N型硅片-210mm - 平均价 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/片 | | P型硅片-210mm - 半均价 | 1 ...