欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 铜 CU2603 農荡偏强 烧碱 短期偏弱 SH2603 热卷 价格中枢在区间下沿向上修复 HC2605 豆糖 農荡偏弱 M2605 【全品种日评】 品种 主力合约 操作建议 点评 IF2603 风险集中释放后,商品及权益资产均有所回暖,但 IH2603 市场情绪回暖,股指集体反弹 股指 持仓未见回升,处于修复性反弹阶段。建议做好组 IC2603 合风险控制,等待企稳,可持有双边买权仓位。 IM2603 昨日权益市场反弹略压制长债情绪,不过央行公告 一是1月买债1000亿元,二是3个月买断式逆回购 净投放1000亿元,资金面宽松预期支撑短端相对 T2603 走强,关注周四周五政府债供给压力。仍预期 TF2603 国债 权益市场反弹,长债情绪略回落 TS2603 T2603合约波动区间或在108-108.3。单边策略 上仍维持区间操作。曲线策略上建议关注做平。移 TL 2603 仓策略上,下月面临春节,建议投资者在节前提前 安排移仓,以防节后流动性不足。 AU2604 AG2604 白银ETF持仓大幅回升 市场情绪改善贵金属止跌反弹 黄金止跌反弹阶段底部有 ...

■亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月4日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 甲醇价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2247 | 2252 | -5 | -0.22% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2279 | 2278 | 1 | 0.04% | | | MA59价差 | -32 | -26 | -6 | 23.08% | | | 太仓基差 | -42 | -50 | 8 | -16.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -107 | -120 | 13 | -10.83% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2000 | 2008 | -8 | -0.37% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2200 | 2210 | -10 | -0.45% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 420 | 43 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, gold has stopped falling and rebounded. The bottom of the stage is expected to be gradually established, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Investors can choose to allocate at low prices [1] - Affected by factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment, silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of $75 - 95. Before the holiday, the exchange raised margin requirements again. Institutions may hold empty positions and wait and see, resulting in a decline in liquidity and volatility. Single - side operations need to be cautious [1] - Palladium rebounds following gold in the short - term, and its price will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily until the direction is clear [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2604 contract rose 85.18 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.45% compared to February 2 [1] - The AG2604 contract fell 3386 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 13.64% compared to February 2 [1] - The PT2606 contract rose 20.80 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.77% [1] - The PD2606 contract rose 36.85 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.91% compared to February 2 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold main contract rose $289.60 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.19% compared to February 2 [1] - The COMEX silver main contract rose $5.65, with a daily increase of 7.13% [1] - The NYMEX platinum main contract rose $93.80 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.43% compared to February 2 [1] - The NYMEX palladium main contract rose $21.00, with a daily increase of 1.22% [1] Spot Prices - London gold rose $286.88 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.16% compared to the previous day [1] - London silver rose $6.22, with a daily increase of 7.85% [1] - Spot platinum rose $102.00 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.76% compared to the previous day [1] - Spot palladium rose $2.84, with a daily increase of 0.16% [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D rose 69.22 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.74% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D fell 1820 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 7.77% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 rose 50 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 9.76% compared to the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.56 yuan, down 15.96 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 154 yuan, up 1566 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 24.33 yuan, down 2.72 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 33.50% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.50 yuan, up 0.56 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 95.90% [1] Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.54, down 0.52 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.88% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.00, up 10.38 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 25.57% [1] - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, up 0.04 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.17% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, down 0.06 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 4.72% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.2% [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.02 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 1.0% [1] - The US dollar index was 97.39, down 0.23 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9350, down 0.0064 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103,032 kg on February 3, 2026, up 3 kg from the previous day, with an increase of 0.00% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 449,653 kg on February 3, 2026, down 12,970 kg from the previous day, with a decrease of 2.80% [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35,755,533 ounces on February 3, 2026, up 130,179 ounces from the previous day, with an increase of 0.37% [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 403,857,528 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 1,840,067 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.45% [1] - The COMEX platinum registered warehouse receipts were 18,962,352 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 32,689 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.17% [1] - The COMEX palladium registered warehouse receipts were 103,070,933 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 946,605 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.91% [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,083 tons on February 3, 2026, down 3.72 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.34% [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,438 tons on February 3, 2026, down 108.90 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.66% [1]

| 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5698 | 5620 | 78 | 1139% | 65.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | 硅锰(SM603) | 2950 | 5836 | 114 | 1195% | 48.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3230 | 3009 | 131 | 4.23% | 57.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷(HC2605) | 3260 | 3265 | -5 | -0.15% | 17.10% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12605) | 832 | 778 | 54 | 7.01% | 43.70% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2605) | 1734 | 1715 | 1 ...

数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 2026年2月4日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2603 | 801.0 | 795.0 | 6.0 | 0.75% | | | 原木2605 | 802.0 | 796.0 | 6.0 | 0.75% | | | 原木2607 | 806.5 | 804.5 | 2.0 | 0.25% | | | 主力合约基差 | -51.0 | -45.0 | -6.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 750 | 750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 | 720 | 720 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多头减仓近 3000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多头减仓 3000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓超 2000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -4,359.0 -3,469.0 -2,383.0 -5,304.0 -2,837.0 -4,799.0 -1,605.0 -8,732.0 -10,000 -9,000 -8,000 -7,000 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1, ...

广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资者向业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2026年2月4日 | 全历史分位数 | 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 最新値 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | E期则分差 | -7.11 | 21.47 | 73.70% | 45.00%6 | 旧期现价差 | -1.58 | -2.64 | 54.00% | 47.10% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 129.15 | 91.80% | 77.20% | -4.70 | IM期现价差 | -26.10 | -109.37 | 60.00% | 51.10% | 次月-当月 | -4.60 | 0.20 | 80.7096 | 50. ...