| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月22日 | 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 匿新債 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | 价元 | -41.18 | IE期前分差 | -38.79 | 13.90%6 | 7.10% | | | | | | | | | | | | H期配分器 | 68.40% | 2.06 | 5.58 | 77.40% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -114.15 | 2.00% | -114.32 | 14.70% | IM期现价差 | -188.01 | 5.00% | 4.30% | -3.26 | | 次月-当月 | -20.00 | -0.80 | 21.30% | 22 60% | 李月- ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年12月22日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田川 | 12月19日 | 12月18日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8390 | -150 | -1.79% | 现价 | 7952 | 8036 | 期价 | Y2605 | -84 | -1.05% | | 墓差 | Y2605 | 288 | -18.64% | 354 | -66 | 05+470 | 05 +470 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 0 | ー | | 26264 | 仓单 | 26264 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 12月19日 | 12月18日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 广东24度 | 8250 | 8400 ...

氯碱周报 S H ：需求端支撑乏力 ， 预计价格反弹后重回弱势 V ：供需仍存压力 ， 价格延续底部震荡 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，虽然部分区域企业库存去库，部分区域下游采买存积极性，但库存水平依然偏高，短期暂无明显利好显现，下周价格仍偏看空。 华东地区下周供应存恢复预期，供量增加下且需求未有实质性改善，预估下周华东区域液碱价格延续弱行。山东地区需求端利好尚未显现，企业开工高位维持，出货情况一般，预 计整体山东市场弱势维持。整体看需求端支撑较弱，长期看供需仍有压力。预计烧碱价格偏弱运行。 ◼ 期货策略建议：偏空思路 ◼ 期权策略建议：暂观望 ◼ PVC主要观点：供应端本周压力不减，但受到海外装置停产提振盘面大幅反弹。下周开工率预计小幅下降，需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳 定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期PVC市场继续维持区间整理运行。当前处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月22日 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 新创信公众 叶倩宁 Z0016628 | 基差率 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 历史分位数 | 品种/合约 | 现货参考 | 留注 | -0.97% | 52.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | -32 | 5608 | 5640 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 0.03% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5810 | 5808 | 25.40% | 硅罐(SM603) | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 181 | 5.80% | 3300 | 69.20% | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3119 | | | | | | 3270 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3269 | 1 | 0.03 ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 125,079.0 34,236.0 102,974.0 128,780.0 -14,094.0 -1,238.0 -10,610.0 -19,646.0 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 | 品种 | | 主力合 约切换 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 为 | | | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信空头 ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监 午可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月20日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧S15530基准) | ર્ | 730 | -175 | -23.97% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | 205 | 380 | -175 | -46.05% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 1080 | -175 | -16.20% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合药 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 730 | 835 | -105 | -12.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差 (SI4210基准) | 380 | 485 | -105 | -21.65% | 元/吨 | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1080 | 1185 | -105 | -8.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合钩 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

要剑三(Z0019656) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 广发 HISTEDP 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考。 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品神买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 【每日精选观点】 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 合约 | 观点 | | | 锡 | | SN2601 | 農荡偏强 | | | 塑料 | | 12605 | 趋势偏弱 | | | 焦煤 | | JM2605 | 底部反弹 | | | 菜油 | | 01605 | 農荡偏弱 | | | PT2606/PD | 钳、锂 | 2606 | 逢低多 | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | IF2512 | | IH2512 | 红利板块逆势上扬,A股风格偏向防御 | 美国11月物价数据超预期下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements for each sector, offering trading strategies based on the analysis [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory [Daily精选] - Tin: Fundamentals remain strong, with tight tin ore supply and stable demand in some sectors. Prices are expected to remain strong, suggesting a long - position strategy [2]. - LLDPE: Linear in North China is near the risk - free basis. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand has reached its peak. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [3]. - Coking Coal: The futures rebounded, with spot prices fluctuating. Supply may decrease at the end of the year, and demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [4]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Palm oil export is weak, while soybean oil may be boosted by crude oil, and rapeseed oil may find support in a certain price range [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, there may be a correction, and a buy - on - dip strategy is recommended [7]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures] - The stock market showed a defensive style, with the dividend sector rising. The four major stock index futures contracts declined. The market lacks an upward driving force, and a cautious waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [9][10][11]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Bond Futures] - Bond futures closed mostly higher. The central bank's operations have made the capital market loose. There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands. A short - term shock - based strategy is recommended [12][13]. [Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals] - Precious metals rose and then fell. US inflation slowed down, and European monetary policies diverged. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, silver to wait and see, and platinum and palladium to buy on dips [14][17][18]. [Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line)] - The SCFIS European line index showed a mixed trend. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. [Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper] - Copper prices are oscillating. The probability of interest rate cuts has slightly increased, and inventories are accumulating. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. A short - term long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [25][27]. - Aluminum: The CPI data has strengthened the interest - rate cut logic. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and a long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [33][34]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating. The supply is gradually tightening, and the demand is stable. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended, and a cross - market reverse arbitrage position should be held [34][37]. - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain strong. A long - position strategy is recommended [38][41]. - Nickel: The low valuation and news have driven the price to rebound. The price is expected to oscillate and repair, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114,000 - 118,000 [41][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [45][47]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing slowly. A short - term wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [49][52]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen due to the expected increase in warehouse receipts. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating and rising. The supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [54][55]. [Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel] - Steel prices are oscillating within a range. The cost is stable, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The futures price rebounded. The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. A long - position strategy for the 2605 contract and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [58][60]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [61][64]. - Coke: The futures price rebounded. The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the supply and demand are weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [65][66]. [Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal] - The spot price of soybean meal is falling, and the supply pressure is still there. The price of rapeseed meal is stable, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [67][69]. - Live Pigs: The supply pressure is limited, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic [70][72]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [73][74]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended [76][77]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price rise has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the resistance level [77][78]. - Eggs: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply is still abundant. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [82][85]. - Red Dates: The downward trend has slowed, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to consumption and inventory [86]. - Apples: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A long - position liquidation strategy is recommended [87]. [Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX] - PX prices are rising. The short - term upward driving force is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. A rolling long - position strategy is recommended [88][89]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in December and loose in the first quarter. A rolling long - position strategy and a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [90][91]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. A strategy similar to PTA and a short - position strategy for high processing fees are recommended [92][93]. - Bottle Chip: The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is supported. Attention should be paid to device restarts and new device production [94][95]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand is weak. A short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and an option - selling strategy is recommended [96]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [97][98]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price driving force is limited. A short - term weak - oscillation strategy is recommended [99][100]. - LLDPE: The North China basis is near the risk - free level. The supply is increasing, and the demand has reached its peak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [101]. - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the profit of PDH [102]. - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening. The overseas supply is decreasing, and the domestic supply and demand are increasing. A strategy of paying attention to the narrowing of MTO05 is recommended [102][103]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak [103][105]. - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [106]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the supply is excessive. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [107][109]. - Glass: The spot price has stopped falling, and there is no continuous upward driving force. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [107][109]. - Natural Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [109][111]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has fallen, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 [111][114].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 772.5 | 765.0 | 7.5 | 0.98% | | | 原木2603 | 778.0 | 769.0 | 9.0 | 1.17% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 778.5 | 6.5 | 0.83% | | | 01-03价差 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -1.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -12.5 | -13.5 | 1.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -38.0 | -29.0 | -9.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -32.5 | -25.0 | -7.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00 ...