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《能源化工》日报-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:08
1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 30, 2025, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the stock index futures market all showed an upward trend, with significant increases in IF and IM, and obvious increases in IH and IC. The top 20 positions mainly increased, especially in the positions of CITIC Futures [1][5][11][17][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 30, the total position of the IF variety increased by 15,183 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 9,027 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long positions of the IF variety, with a total position of 46,822 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 4,653 lots during the day, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 205 lots [6]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short positions of the IF variety, with a total position of 51,706 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,669 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 337 lots [8]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 30, the total position of the IH variety increased by 8,559 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 4,265 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 long positions of the IH variety, with a total position of 43,473 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,954 lots during the day, while Everbright Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 302 lots [12]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short positions of the IH variety, with a total position of 21,772 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,211 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 594 lots [13]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 30, the total position of the IC variety increased by 5,142 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 3,193 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 long positions of the IC variety, with a total position of 36,146 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,490 lots during the day, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 547 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short positions of the IC variety, with a total position of 41,539 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,004 lots during the day, while SDIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 378 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 30, the total position of the IM variety increased by 16,585 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 10,446 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Long Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long positions of the IM variety, with a total position of 46,903 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 3,296 lots during the day, while Baocheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 60 lots [24]. - **Top 20 Short Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short positions of the IM variety, with a total position of 68,920 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 4,314 lots during the day, while UBS Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,118 lots [26].
广发期货日评-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:23
Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 04:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - **EC**: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, as well as related economic indicators and market information. They provide a comprehensive view of the current market situation and price trends in different sectors [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports detail the current values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of price differences in various stock index futures, such as IF, IC, IH, and IM, including spot-futures spreads, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. - **Examples**: The IF spot - futures spread is 5.41, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 84.40% and a full - history quantile of 85.60%, showing a change of 2.38 compared to the previous day [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Spreads**: Information on basis (TF, T, TL) and inter - delivery spreads (TS, TF, T, TL) is provided, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **IRR and Percentiles**: The internal rate of return (IRR) and its historical percentiles are also presented for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory/holding data for gold and silver are reported, including their daily changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Examples**: The AU2510 contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram on July 29, down 0.43% from the previous day [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Index Prices**: Spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping rates, container shipping indices (SCFIS, SCFI), and their changes and percentage changes are provided [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their daily changes [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are presented, showing their recent trends [5]. Data and Information Calendar - **Overseas Data**: Macro - economic data (GDP, employment, inflation, etc.) and energy - related data (crude oil inventories) from the eurozone and the US are scheduled to be released at specific times [8]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and industry - specific data (mine production, inventory, production rates) for black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities in China are also included with their release times [8].
焦煤产业期现日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].
全品种价差日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No core view is presented in the provided content. The document mainly lists the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities and financial instruments. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 6110, futures price is 5928, basis is -182, and basis rate is -2.98% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6212, basis is -142, and basis rate is -2.29% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3430, futures price is 3490, basis is -60, and basis rate is -1.72% (calculated). - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3503, futures price is 3503, basis is 0, and basis rate is 0% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 817, futures price is 798, basis is 19, and basis rate is 2.37% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1538, futures price is 1633, basis is -95, and basis rate is -5.84% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1155, futures price is 1121, basis is 34, and basis rate is 3.08% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 79025, futures price is 78840, basis is 185, and basis rate is 0.23% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20620, futures price is 20605, basis is 15, and basis rate is 0.07% [1]. - **Heavy - Melt Aluminum (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3245, futures price is 3307, basis is -62, and basis rate is -1.88% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22655, futures price is 22500, basis is 155, and basis rate is 0.68% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 266660, futures price is 266100, basis is 560, and basis rate is 0.21% [1]. - **Nickel (NI5509)**: Spot price is 121800, futures price is 121750, basis is 50, and basis rate is 0.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (22509)**: Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12920, basis is 150, and basis rate is 1.16% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 73150, futures price is 70840, basis is 2310, and basis rate is 3.26% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 9800, futures price is 9350, basis is 450, and basis rate is 4.81% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 771.4, futures price is 767.2, basis is 4.2, and basis rate is 0.54% (calculated) [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9195.0, futures price is 9163.0, basis is 32.0, and basis rate is 0.35% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2983.0, futures price is 2860, basis is 123.0, and basis rate is 4.12% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y15209)**: Spot price is 8270, futures price is 8226.0, basis is 44.0, and basis rate is 0.53% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 8970, futures price is 8970.0, basis is 0.0, and basis rate is 0.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2660.0, futures price is 2510, basis is 150.0, and basis rate is 5.64% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price is 9560, futures price is 9492.0, basis is 68.0, and basis rate is 0.72% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2302.0, basis is 48.0, and basis rate is 2.09% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2720, futures price is 2666.0, basis is 54.0, and basis rate is 2.03% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14150.0, futures price is 13880, basis is 270.0, and basis rate is 1.91% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3576.0, futures price is 3040, basis is 536.0, and basis rate is 17.63% (calculated) [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15431, futures price is 13925.0, basis is 1506.0, and basis rate is 10.82% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5867.0, basis is 253.0, and basis rate is 4.31% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7908.0, basis is 692.0, and basis rate is 8.75% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 10790.0, futures price is 8300, basis is 2490.0, and basis rate is 23.08% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7055.5, futures price is 6942.0, basis is 113.5, and basis rate is 1.63% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4840.0, futures price is 4838.0, basis is 2.0, and basis rate is 0.04% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4530.0, futures price is 4467.0, basis is 63.0, and basis rate is 1.41% [1]. - **Polyester Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price is 6605.0, futures price is 6500.0, basis is 105.0, and basis rate is 1.62% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price is 7374.0, futures price is 7355.0, basis is 19.0, and basis rate is 0.26% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2434.0, futures price is 2405.0, basis is 29.0, and basis rate is 1.19% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1760.0, futures price is 1744.0, basis is 16.0, and basis rate is 0.92% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7385.0, futures price is 7325.0, basis is 60.0, and basis rate is 0.81% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7160.0, futures price is 7160.0, basis is 0.0, and basis rate is 0.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5192.0, futures price is 5020.0, basis is 172.0, and basis rate is 3.31% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: Spot price is 2642.0, futures price is 2593.8, basis is 48.2, and basis rate is 1.83% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 4028.0, basis is 420.0, and basis rate is 9.50% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3619.0, basis is 156.0, and basis rate is 4.31% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: Spot price is 12100.0, futures price is 11835.0, basis is 265.0, and basis rate is 2.24% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1188.0, futures price is 1168.0, basis is 20.0, and basis rate is 1.68% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1318.0, futures price is 1303.0, basis is 15.0, and basis rate is 1.15% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 15010.0, futures price is 14900.0, basis is 110.0, and basis rate is 0.74% [1]. Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4152.0, futures price is 4141.4, basis is 10.6, and basis rate is 0.26% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2814.0, futures price is 2808.6, basis is 5.4, and basis rate is 0.19% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6356.1, futures price is 6263.0, basis is 93.1, and basis rate is 1.49% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6773.9, futures price is 6662.0, basis is 111.9, and basis rate is 1.68% [1]. - **2 - Year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 102.30, futures price is 100.23, basis is 2.07, and basis rate is 2.06% (calculated) [1]. - **5 - Year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 105.55, futures price is 100.52, basis is 5.03, and basis rate is 4.89% (calculated) [1]. - **10 - Year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 108.14, futures price is 106.74, basis is 1.4, and basis rate is 1.29% (calculated) [1]. - **30 - Year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 133.24, futures price is 117.89, basis is 15.35, and basis rate is 12.47% (calculated) [1].
《特殊商品》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:25
| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月30日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1250 | 1260 | -10 | -0.79% | | | 华东报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1230 | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1461 | 1437 | 24 | 1.67% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1362 | 1307 | રેર | 4.21% | | | 05基差 | -211 | -177 | -34 | -19.21% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | ...
《有色》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:25
即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...