Report Date - The report is dated March 23, 2026. [4] Commodity Market Data Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF603) spot price is 5932 with a 0.27% change and a historical quantile of 57.50%. Its futures price is 5948. [1] - Silicon manganese (SM603) spot price is 6400, down 30 (-0.47%), with a historical quantile of 20.00%. The futures price is 6370. [1] - Rebar (RB2605) spot price in Shanghai is 3230, down 17 (-0.52%), with a historical quantile of 12.20%. The futures price is 3280. [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2605) related data is presented with corresponding price and historical quantile information. [1] - Iron ore (12605) spot price is 847, futures price is 816 with a 3.91% change and a historical quantile of 26.90%. [1] - Coke (J2605) and coking coal (JM2605) have their respective spot, futures prices, changes, and historical quantiles. [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CUSEOS) spot price is 94740 with a 98.12% historical quantile, and the futures price is 95825. [1] - Aluminum (AL2605) spot price is 24020, futures price is 24070 with a 75.83% historical quantile. [1] - Zinc (ZN2605) and other non - ferrous metals like tin (SN2604), nickel (MISEOR), stainless steel (SS2605), etc. are also detailed with their price and quantile data. [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2604) spot price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (AU(T + D)) is 0.13% changed with a 99.00% historical quantile, and the futures price is 1040.6. [1] - Silver (AG2606) spot and futures prices are presented with corresponding data. [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2605) spot price is 281.0, and the futures price is 3029.0 with a 70.80% historical quantile. [1] - Other agricultural products such as soybean oil (V2605), palm oil (P2605), rapeseed meal (RM605), etc. have their price and quantile information provided. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX605) spot price is 9682.0, futures price is 9593.0 with a - 0.92% change and a 12.50% historical quantile. [1] - PTA (TA605), ethylene glycol (EG2605), and many other energy and chemical products are reported with their price, change, and historical quantile data. [1] Financial Futures - Stock index futures such as IF2606.CFE, IH2606.CFE, IC2606.CFE, IM2606.CFE, and bond futures like TS2606, TF2606, T2606, TL2606 have their prices, changes, and historical quantiles presented. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk preference significantly recovers. Pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran conflict and the de - stocking situation in the peak season, with the main focus on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Zinc: In the short term, zinc prices are under pressure due to supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - level positives. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand fundamentals are generally stable, and the space for further significant decline may be limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support around 22,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Tin: The short - term tin price is expected to be weakly volatile. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and the short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East situation [6]. - Nickel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the market, but the raw material end contradictions support the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the non - ferrous sector, while the raw material end is tight and the cost support is strong. The steel mills increase production and the demand gradually recovers. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory adjustment, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Currently, macro - level sentiment dominates, and the disk decline continues to expand. The real - world fundamentals of lithium carbonate have resilience, but the terminal data is weak and lacks further momentum. In the short term, the disk is expected to maintain a weakly wide - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation with macro - level sentiment and geopolitical news. The long - term bullish logic still holds. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point and the impact of the Middle East situation on supply, with the main reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the short term, the high raw material cost strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows up slowly, and the negative feedback effect of high prices gradually appears. The market is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [18]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the lowest cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,150 yuan/ton, down 3,375 yuan/ton or 3.41% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, down 31,300 tons or 3.13% month - on - month; the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 0.2602 million tons, down 0.0109 million tons or 4.02% month - on - month [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton or 1.64% compared to the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 2,568 yuan/ton, up 205.36 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, down 0.056 million tons or 9.99% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume in December was 0.0088 million tons, down 0.0095 million tons or 51.94% month - on - month [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 353,400 yuan/ton, down 2,400 yuan/ton or 0.67% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 tin is 2,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton or 50% compared to the previous value [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, down 657 tons or 3.69% compared to the previous value; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, down 3,610 tons or 23.91% compared to the previous value [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 137,900 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton or 2.22% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 2.96% compared to the previous value [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, down 2,625 tons or 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 10,723 tons or 84.63% month - on - month [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 0.70% compared to the previous value; the futures - spot price difference is 455 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 19.47% compared to the previous value [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) is 1.9008 million tons, up 0.5814 million tons or 44.07% month - on - month; the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) is 0.37 million tons, down 0.045 million tons or 10.84% month - on - month [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.30% compared to the previous value; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 146,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.34% compared to the previous value [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, down 14,810 tons or 15.13% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 13,180 tons or 10.57% month - on - month [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to the previous value; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 3,676 yuan/ton, up 396.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, down 0.785 million tons or 10.63% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, down 0.339 million tons or 8.91% month - on - month [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton or 1.20% compared to the previous value; the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 133.33% compared to the previous value [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.358 million tons, down 0.252 million tons or 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.2093 million tons, down 0.094 million tons or 30.99% month - on - month [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous value; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 645 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 20.86% compared to the previous value [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 275,700 tons, down 99,800 tons or 26.58% compared to the previous value; the national industrial silicon production start - up rate is 38.02%, down 10.31 percentage points or 21.33% compared to the previous value [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 43,500 yuan/kg, down 250 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared to the previous value; the N - type material basis (average price) is 5,735 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan/ton or 10.29% compared to the previous value [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, down 23,800 tons or 23.61% compared to the previous value; the polysilicon import volume is 0.16 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 54.97% compared to the previous value [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply - demand is weak, but cost support is strong. Suggest a phased low - long approach with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - PTA: Short - term self - drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the cost. Adopt a phased low - long strategy with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is upward momentum before the resumption of Middle - East oil transportation, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after the rise. Lightly buy EG2605 call options [1]. - Short - fiber: Short - term self - drive is weak, following raw material fluctuations. PF's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, and its processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle chips: PR's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, the processing fee on the main PR disk is expected to be strong, and lightly buy PR2605 call options [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: May follow oil price fluctuations. Long positions can be protected with put options. Temporarily observe the EB05 - BZ05 spread and watch for opportunities to narrow it [2]. - Styrene: The absolute price follows oil price fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [2]. Crude Oil Industry - If the situation does not improve or new variables occur, there will be a substantial shortage of supply in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and crude oil futures prices may further approach Dubai spot prices with continuous upward momentum [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: The fundamental supply is strong and demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of SA605 at around 1150 [5]. - Glass: The overall supply - demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of FG605 at around 1030 [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Although the fundamentals are marginally improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [6]. - PVC: The market is expected to run strongly with oscillations in the short term [6]. Urea Industry - Urea: Under the influence of policies, the short - term market will mainly oscillate with limited corrections [7]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Import reduction dominates the current market. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices, but beware of demand sustainability and policy risks [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polyolefins: Cost and supply - side drivers are dominant, and the price center is likely to rise. The increase may be stronger than that of other chemicals in the short term [9]. LPG Industry No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data are presented. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and downstream polyester cost transmission is not smooth. PTA may accumulate inventory in March, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to decline, with inventory likely to decrease [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 108.65 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads showed various changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and downstream product prices are rising. Styrene supply is expected to remain stable, but demand is weak [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% increase; WTI rose 2.68 to 98.23 dollars/barrel, a 2.80% increase [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused substantial production cuts in the Middle - East, and the demand side has a need to replenish inventories [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices were generally stable, with slight declines in futures prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash supply is stable with a slight increase in production, and demand is weak. Glass supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Caustic soda prices rose, and PVC prices were relatively stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. PVC supply decreased slightly, and demand was average [6]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices fell, and spot prices were slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea supply decreased slightly due to increased maintenance, and agricultural demand is gradually recovering [7]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices fell, and inventory decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic methanol production increased, and import is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is expected to improve [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Polyolefin futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to decrease due to production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures and spot prices rose, and the basis increased [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery inventory and port inventory increased, and the upstream refinery开工率 decreased while the downstream PDH开工率 increased [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry is in a state of basic balance between supply and demand, with both supply and demand increasing. This week, the increase in apparent demand is greater than the increase in production, maintaining seasonal destocking. The steel price has risen to the upper limit of the range, and there is a probability of price increase in the short - term due to the influence of raw materials. The shock center of rebar will rise [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Short - term iron ore prices are supported by factors such as accelerated steel mill复产 and restricted liquidity of some spot varieties. The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand for molten iron has rebounded significantly. The inventory of steel mills has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the future, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke has an expectation of bottoming out and rebounding. The supply of coke and coking coal has increased, and the demand has also risen after the end of the two sessions. The inventory of coking plants has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contract and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry - Silicon iron has a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the cost is also supported. It is expected that the supply will continue to grow. The price is expected to fluctuate widely and run strongly. Manganese silicon has cost support, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected. The price has bottom - line support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply changes and cost changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab decreased and remained unchanged respectively. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.9 to 839.8, with a growth rate of 2.3% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 28.7 to 1946.2, with a decrease rate of 1.5%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.9 to 9.9, with a growth rate of 10.2%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 70.4 to 868.5, with a growth rate of 8.8% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of 05 contracts of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 394.9 to 2215.0, with a decrease rate of 15.1%. The global shipping volume increased by 151.0 to 3048.8, with a growth rate of 5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.1 to 321.0, with a growth rate of 1.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 89.1 to 17098.4, with a decrease rate of 0.5%. The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 105.0 to 9034.1, with a growth rate of 1.2% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased to varying degrees. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 64.2, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 47.3, with a growth rate of 0.7% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 981.5, with a decrease rate of 0.3%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 35.6 to 1005.0, with a growth rate of 3.7% [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry Futures and Spot - The closing prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon main contracts increased. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions changed slightly. The production profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon also changed [7]. Supply - The silicon iron output increased by 0.7 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 7.2%. The manganese silicon supply decreased slightly, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon increased. The molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [7]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 5.9, with a decrease rate of 2.9%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.9 to 38.5, with a growth rate of 2.4% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, leading to increased energy costs and inflationary pressures. Global central banks' monetary policies are difficult to loosen, and there is a risk of stagflation in overseas markets, which suppresses market sentiment. However, the domestic A - share market shows relative resilience and is likely to experience a differentiated market as the performance period approaches [3]. - The performance of different varieties varies. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations, showing trends such as weak or strong fluctuations, and investors need to adjust their strategies according to different situations [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The energy sector is rising against the trend, but overseas stagflation risks suppress market sentiment. The domestic A - share market is relatively resilient and is expected to show a differentiated market. The view is neutral with weak fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts increase inflationary pressures, and global central banks turn hawkish. Precious metals will generally remain in a weak - fluctuating state, seeking to build a bottom at the low level in early February. Gold put option buyers can continue to hold, and it is recommended to short - sell silver lightly above $75 - 80. Platinum follows gold and silver in a weak - fluctuating state, with resistance between $2000 - 2050, and palladium fluctuates weakly in the range of $1450 - 1500 [3]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center moves up, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, pay attention to the pressure at 3150 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic disturbances intensify, and the resumption of iron - making production accelerates. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 780 - 840 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal varieties are rising, and overseas energy commodities are surging. Affected by geopolitical risks, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2605 on dips, with a reference range of 1100 - 1300 [3]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices are temporarily stable, and cost increases raise the expectation of price hikes. The futures price fluctuates with coking coal. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 on dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and both supply and demand of silicon iron increase. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 5700 - 6200 [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon rises. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 5800 - 6400 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The conflict between the US and Iran escalates, and copper prices are under pressure to decline. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and pay attention to the pressure at 97000 - 98000 for the main contract [3]. - **Aluminum Products**: Speculative demand increases, and spot prices continue to rise. For the main contract, refer to the range of 2800 - 3100, and continue to hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: There are both recession expectations and supply crises, and the differentiation between domestic and overseas aluminum markets intensifies. For the main contract, refer to the range of 23000 - 25000, and try to go long with a light position [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of primary aluminum fluctuates and falls, and the alloy price is adjusted downward accordingly. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 22000 - 24000, and try to go long with a light position [3]. - **Zinc**: The path of interest rate cuts is not clear, and zinc prices are under pressure to decline. Stop - profit on short positions, and pay attention to the support at 22800 - 23000 for the main contract [3]. - **Tin**: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, market risk sentiment decreases, and supply - side recovery leads to a continued decline in tin prices. It is in a short - term weak - fluctuating state, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic sentiment is significantly adjusted, and the futures price weakens rapidly. Operate in the range of 130000 - 140000 for the main contract [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment suppresses the futures price, and supply and demand are gradually recovering. It is in a weak - fluctuating adjustment state, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 13800 - 14500 [3]. New Energy - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price stabilizes, but the futures price drops significantly due to market sentiment. It is advisable to hold the previously sold options cautiously [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price drops significantly due to market sentiment. It fluctuates in the range of 40000 - 45000 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macroeconomic factors dominate market sentiment, and the decline in the futures price widens. For the main contract, refer to the range of 146,000 - 158,000, and conduct short - term range operations [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran launches a large - scale counter - attack in response to the attack on its oil and gas fields, and the US and Israeli presidents announce a suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Oil prices fluctuate widely. Hold long positions cautiously or stay on the sidelines [3]. - **PX**: The cost - side support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback drags down the trend. Long positions can be protected with put options, and pay attention to oil price trends [3]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, the cost - side support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback drags down the trend. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PX [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PX, and the processing fee on the PF futures fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [3]. - **Bottle Chips**: Due to the expected shortage of raw material supply, the supply - demand situation of bottle chips is expected to be tight. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract futures runs strongly [3]. - **Ethanol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the de - stocking amplitude of MEG in the near - term is expected to increase. Before the resumption of oil transportation in the Middle - East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to the risk of a pull - back after the rise. Long positions can be protected with put options; temporarily observe the spread between EB04 and BZ04, and pay attention to opportunities to narrow the spread [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The cost - side support is strong, but the high - level fluctuations increase. Temporarily observe and pay attention to opportunities to narrow the spread [3]. - **Styrene**: The price of raw material ethylene has increased significantly, and the profit of styrene is significantly compressed. The strategy is the same as that of pure benzene [3]. - **LLDPE**: It maintains a risk - free basis, and trading is light. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - **PP**: More upstream plants stop production or reduce production, and the futures price is strong. Take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, methanol is strong. Continue to hold the bottom - position long positions [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The Middle - East situation escalates, and the caustic - soda price remains firm. Stay on the sidelines mainly, and be vigilant against a significant decline in the futures price if the Middle - East situation eases [3]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances bring export expectations, and the emotional fluctuations of PVC are magnified. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Urea**: With the release of commercial reserves and the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, urea may fluctuate and decline. Pay attention to the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran, and take profit on the previous long positions [3]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply reaches a new high and continues to increase, downstream demand is average, and multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Glass**: Downstream demand recovers slowly, and glass enterprises mainly digest inventory. Pay attention to changes in production lines and demand [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, and rubber prices are weak. Stay on the sidelines mainly [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense Middle - East situation, the fundamentals generally support the strength of BR. In the short term, it is recommended to go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 on dips with a light position [3]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Shipowners raise the fuel surcharge, and the offline price weakens. The futures price fluctuates widely. Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [3]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: US soybeans stop falling and rebound, and the tight spot supply - demand situation supports the domestic meal futures. It fluctuates in a range [3]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. It fluctuates weakly [3]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and corn fluctuates [3]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Affected by repeated geopolitical disturbances, vegetable oils follow the rise of crude oil. It fluctuates and consolidates [3]. - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price rises again, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures remain strong. Pay attention to the pressure around 5450 - 5500 [3]. - **Cotton**: Commodity prices weaken, and cotton prices continue to adjust. Reduce long positions [3]. - **Eggs**: The market supply is stable, and the sales speed is average. It fluctuates at a low level [3]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price rises significantly. It fluctuates strongly [3]. - **Jujubes**: Consumption is hard to improve, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support around 8600 - 8700 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the macro - risk increases, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the disk is in a volatile adjustment. The raw material end has accumulated contradictions, and the fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 134,000 - 145,000 [3]. - For stainless steel, the raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strengthening, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually recovering. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Supply - In February 2026, affected by holidays, the production data of refined nickel in China weakened. The output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. In March, the estimated output is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [3]. Demand - The demand side shows no obvious improvement. Downstream maintains a rigid procurement rhythm, and the spot trading is generally light. The overall demand of the electroplating downstream is relatively stable, with little room for growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounts for the majority, and the alloy demand in military and shipping industries is good. In March, stainless steel plants resumed production, but the current profit of steel plants is low, and large - scale procurement has not started after the holiday. The high price of MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but the demand is flat, and the price of nickel sulfate fluctuates mainly [3]. Inventory - Overseas inventory remains at a relatively high level, domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the bonded area inventory remains stable. As of March 13, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,866 tons; the SMM domestic six - region social inventory was 87,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,953 tons; the bonded area inventory was 2,200 tons, with no change week - on - week [3]. Cost - Due to the tightening of raw materials, the external procurement cost has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process has increased. On March 13, the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate was 153,900 yuan/ton, from externally purchased MHP was 146,400 yuan/ton, and from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte was 143,100 yuan/ton. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from Indonesia's integrated MHP was 113,300 yuan/ton, and the production cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process was 141,700 yuan/ton [3]. Basis - The mainstream premium and discount quotation of SHFE nickel 2604 is 6,500 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week; the real - time converted premium and discount range of Jinchuan nickel's ex - factory price in Shanghai area to the SHFE disk is 2,870 - 7,320 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared with last week. The mainstream premium and discount quotation of Russian nickel to SHFE nickel 2604 is - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation remains the same as last week [3]. Stainless Steel Raw Materials - The supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia has further intensified. During the Ramadan, the supply release rhythm has slowed down, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the price of wet - process ore continues to rise. The premium on the main island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and that on the outer island has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton. The tender price of Philippine mines continues to rise. The tender price of 1.3% grade in Benguet this week is 54 US dollars/ton (FOB), a further increase of 2 US dollars compared with last week. The price center of the high - grade nickel pig iron market has steadily moved up, and some scattered orders have been traded in the market [4]. Supply - According to Mysteel statistics, in February 2026, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 2.695 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 841,400 tons, a decrease of 23.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.32%. The output of 300 - series was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 538,700 tons, a decrease of 28.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%. In March, the estimated crude steel production of stainless steel is 3.6795 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 984,500 tons, an increase of 36.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. Among them, the output of 300 - series is 1.9008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 581,400 tons, an increase of 44.07%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05%. Steel plants have completed most of their maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the overall production schedule in March has increased [4]. Inventory - The social inventory is steadily being digested, the warehouse receipts remain stable, and the inventory pressure has marginally improved. As of March 12, the social inventory of 300 - series in Wuxi and Foshan was 532,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,400 tons. On March 13, the stainless steel futures inventory on the SHFE was 51,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 713 tons [4]. Basis and Cost - As of March 13, the spot price of Wuxi Hongwang 304/2B 2.0 is 14,450 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week; the basis is 430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Recently, the cost center has increased. The cold - rolling cash cost of high - grade nickel pig iron is 14,640.04 yuan/ton, and the production cost of cold - rolled products from scrap stainless steel is 14,364.47 yuan/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market experienced wide - range fluctuations last week, with the price center moving down. Macro risks persisted, and the trading momentum of funds in the new energy sector weakened. The fundamentals remained in a state of increasing supply and demand. Geopolitical conflicts led to increased market uncertainty, and the previous over - valuation of the lithium carbonate market and the flow of funds to other sectors weakened the trading momentum of the new energy sector. The short - term unilateral driving force of the market is limited, and it will mainly undergo wide - range shock adjustments. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, with the main contract fluctuating between 150,000 - 165,000 yuan. As of March 13, the main futures contract LC2605 fell 2.61% to 152,080 yuan, and the trading activity decreased. The weighted contract's total open interest was 623,000 lots. In the spot market, as of March 13, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, both down about 2.8% week - on - week. The spot price mainly followed the futures market, and there were differences in market sentiment. Downstream buyers increased purchases at low prices but were less accepting of high - priced goods [3]. Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have not shown significant signs of easing. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will continue strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and may open new battlefronts if necessary, increasing the uncertainty risk from overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Supply - Last week, production continued to increase. After the Spring Festival, the planned maintenance of upstream salt plants gradually ended, and most enterprises resumed production, driving up supply. In March, imports from Chile were sufficient to provide some supplementation. As of March 12, the weekly production of SMM lithium carbonate was 22,590 tons, an increase of 768 tons week - on - week. In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 tons month - on - month but a 35% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,930 tons, a decrease of 10,510 tons from the previous month but a 36% increase year - on - year; the production of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,160 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous month but a 35% increase year - on - year. The production in March is expected to increase to 106,390 tons [3][42]. Demand - The overall demand outlook is optimistic. The power terminal's power - carrying capacity has increased significantly, and leading energy - storage enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. Downstream production schedules remain resilient. With rigid orders, the material production is expected to remain stable. In March, the production schedules of battery cells and materials are expected to increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in lithium iron phosphate and relatively weak performance of ternary materials. In February, the demand for lithium carbonate was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 13,180 tons from the previous month but a 47.5% increase year - on - year. Affected by the holiday in February, the demand in March is expected to increase to 132,845 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 19% [3][72]. Inventory - Last week, the inventory in all links continued to decline, but the decline rate further slowed down. The inventory of upstream smelters decreased, while downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory last week, and the inventory of battery cell manufacturers and traders decreased overall. As of March 12, the total sample weekly inventory was 98,958 tons, a decrease of 415 tons week - on - week; the smelter inventory was 16,291 tons, the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, and the inventory in other links was 37,020 tons. As of March 12, the total number of warehouse receipts was 36,455, a decrease of 385 during the week [3][64]. Price - The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the spot market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases. The trade premium and discount remained strong, and the domestic - foreign price difference converged. The raw material price was firm, and the short - term port arrivals decreased. The prices of major materials fluctuated at a high level [4][12][21][29]. Production - The production continued to increase, and the maintenance gradually ended. In March, the production is expected to increase significantly, and the supply in major production areas has recovered. According to SMM, in March, the estimated production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is about 65,400 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous month; the production of lithium carbonate from mica is expected to be 13,930 tons, an increase of 2,610 tons; the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes is expected to be 16,440 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. In terms of regional production, the production in the three major main production areas of Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the lithium carbonate production in Jiangxi in March will be 26,680 tons, an increase of 2,460 tons from the previous month; the production in Sichuan is expected to increase by 7,200 tons to 18,200 tons; the production in Qinghai is expected to increase by 1,700 tons to 14,350 tons [35][42][47]. Capacity and Operation - The upstream smelting capacity continued to expand, but the operating rate decreased, and there was a trend of flexible production lines switching to lithium carbonate production. The capacity continued to expand, and the central value of lithium carbonate production has significantly increased. Some new projects are gradually ramping up, driving up the lithium carbonate capacity. Currently, there is limited room for improvement in the operating rate of leading enterprises. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate in February decreased significantly. According to SMM, the monthly lithium carbonate capacity in March is expected to be 157,700 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous month, and the lithium hydroxide capacity is 52,200 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate in February was 48%, a decrease of 8% from the previous month; the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 38%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month [48][50]. Import - The average monthly import volume of lithium carbonate currently remains around 15,000 - 25,000 tons, and the recent imports are relatively stable. The import structure is relatively stable, and the import regions are still mainly in South American countries such as Chile and Argentina. According to Chile's shipping data, domestic downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to supplement raw materials through imported lithium salts, and the import volume in March may increase significantly. Customs data shows that in December, the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.5 tons from November. In terms of the import country structure, the import data from Argentina and Chile both increased in December. In February, Chile's total lithium salt exports were 33,900 tons of LCE, a 14% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The lithium carbonate export volume was 26,800 tons, accounting for 79%, an increase of 21%; the lithium sulfate export volume was 122,100 physical tons; the lithium hydroxide export volume decreased to 942 tons [51][56]. Demand Details - **Iron Lithium Production Schedule**: Affected by seasonal subsidy cuts, the power terminal data was weak, but the seasonality of lithium iron phosphate was diluted under the support of energy storage. In February, the production of major materials decreased month - on - month due to the holiday. In March, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was significantly revised upwards. After the end of the holiday impact on two - wheeled vehicles and 3C consumption, the supply is expected to gradually recover, and the production schedules of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are expected to increase slightly. According to SMM, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,400 tons, an increase of 82,200 tons month - on - month. The monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium in March is expected to be 8,480 tons, an increase of 1,760 tons month - on - month; the production of manganese - acid lithium in March is expected to be 10,310 tons, an increase of 2,490 tons month - on - month [73][80]. - **Ternary Material Production Schedule**: In March, the production of ternary materials is expected to increase overall. Although the seasonal impact is gradually digested, the weakening of the terminal and the structural squeeze of lithium iron phosphate still have an impact, and the increase in the production schedule of ternary materials is less than that of lithium iron phosphate. Structurally, it is expected that the production schedules of medium - and high - nickel materials and NCA will be significantly revised upwards, while the production of low - nickel materials accounts for a small and stable proportion. According to SMM data, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,360 tons, an increase of 13,640 tons month - on - month. Among them, the production of 3 - series materials is expected to remain at 30 tons, the production of medium - and low - nickel ternary (5/6 - series) materials is expected to be 10,220 tons and 40,180 tons respectively, with a larger increase in the production of medium - nickel materials; the production schedules of high - nickel ternary (8/9 - series) materials are expected to be 20,320 tons and 12,079 tons respectively, also showing a month - on - month increase; the production of NCA is expected to be 1,390 tons, with a relatively large month - on - month increase [81][85]. - **Waste Recycling**: After the overall increase in the lithium carbonate price center, the recycling end increased rapidly under high profits. In February, the recycling volume decreased overall due to the holiday. Structurally, there were slight differences between different materials, with a larger decrease in ternary material recycling and a slower decrease in lithium iron phosphate and cobalt - acid lithium. According to SMM, the total monthly recycling volume of domestic waste lithium batteries in February was 27,708 tons, a 26% decrease month - on - month but a 36.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, the monthly recycling volume of ternary waste materials was 10,720 tons, a decrease of 5,059 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of lithium iron phosphate waste materials was 14,026 tons, a decrease of 3,446 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of cobalt - acid lithium waste materials was 2,962 tons, a decrease of 1,196 tons from the previous month [86][88]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In 2026, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was adjusted from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, resulting in a decrease in subsidies for mid - and low - end models and a weakening of the purchase tax preference policy. The impact of seasonality and the pre - consumption due to policy withdrawal gradually emerged, and the new energy vehicle market has cooled down significantly since the beginning of the year. However, the power - carrying capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, and the market growth structure has also changed, gradually shifting to the joint drive of the steady growth of passenger vehicles and the explosion of commercial vehicles. According to the Passenger Car Association, in February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 464,000 units, a 32.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.06 million units, a 25.7% year - on - year decrease; the retail penetration rate in February was 44.9%, a 4% year - on - year decrease. In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 723,000 units, a 13.1% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.589 million units, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease; the manufacturer's wholesale penetration rate in February was 47.6%, a 1% year - on - year increase [89]. - **Power Battery Market**: In February, the production, sales, and installation data of batteries met expectations. Affected by seasonality, the data continued to weaken month - on - month, but the production increased year - on - year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominated the market share. On a monthly basis, the demand for ternary batteries in high - end new energy vehicles was relatively stable, while the demand in the economy - class electric vehicle market weakened more significantly, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries also contracted. According to the data of the Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% decrease month - on - month but a 41.3% increase year - on - year. The domestic power battery installation volume was 26.3 GWh, a 37.4% decrease month - on - month and a 24.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total installation volume, a 39.1% decrease month - on - month and an 11.4% decrease year - on - year; the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total installation volume, a 36.9% decrease month - on - month and a 27.5% decrease year - on - year [94][99]. - **Energy - Storage Market**: The production and sales of energy - storage batteries decreased seasonally, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained at a low level. In February, the production and sales data of energy - storage batteries decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained low [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to increased inflation pressure, tightened monetary policies in many countries, and significant fluctuations in the prices of various commodities [12][14][94]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some industries are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and macro - economic factors, while others are supported by cost or demand [2][3][4]. - In the short term, most commodities are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and investors need to pay close attention to geopolitical developments, supply - demand changes, and cost factors [17][22][41]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is dominated by macro factors, and the decline in the futures price has widened. The fundamentals are resilient with both supply and demand increasing. In the short term, it is expected to be weak, with the main contract running in the range of 140,000 - 148,000 yuan [2][41]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level and increasing, while the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with the range of 1,150 - 1,300 yuan [3][119][122]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [4][47][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality of apples in the 25/26 production season have declined, and the low inventory supports the futures price [5][92][93]. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The energy sector has risen against the trend, while the overall A - share market has declined. Overseas stagflation risks have suppressed market sentiment. The view is neutral and weakly volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased inflation pressure, and central banks around the world have turned hawkish. The prices of precious metals have fallen sharply. In the short term, they are expected to be weakly volatile and seek to build a bottom at the low level in early February [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and the copper price has been under pressure. The short - term supply is tight at the mine end, the demand is picking up, and the inventory structure has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: Speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in March, and the inventory shows a structural differentiation. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset at high prices [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: There are both recession expectations and supply crises, and the internal and external aluminum markets have shown increased differentiation. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions lightly [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The interest rate cut path is unclear, and the zinc price has been under pressure. The supply shortage at the mine end has improved, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the tin price has continued to fall. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand is relatively weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, there is a bullish logic [28][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has been significantly adjusted, and the nickel price has weakened rapidly. The supply pressure still exists, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to be in a weakly volatile range [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - sentiment has suppressed the market, and the supply and demand are gradually recovering. The raw material cost is high, and the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][36][38]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The macro - sentiment has dominated the market, and the futures price has fallen significantly. The fundamentals are resilient, but the short - term price is expected to be weak [39][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has recovered, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [42][43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has shown signs of recovery. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the cost fluctuations [45][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price has been in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron ore price has been supported in the short term. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern in the short term [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the price has been affected by geopolitical risks. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [53][55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke price has followed the coking coal and fluctuated. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [58][60][62]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict has continued, and the supply and demand of silicon iron have both increased. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [64][65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment has been changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The supply and demand have both increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range and strongly volatile pattern [67][68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean has stopped falling and rebounded, and the domestic soybean meal is supported by tight supply and demand. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The hog supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction [73][74]. - **Corn**: The spot price has remained stable, and the corn price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The supply has improved, and the demand is still at a low level [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price has risen again, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by policies and energy prices [78][79]. - **Cotton**: The commodity market has weakened, and the cotton price has continued to adjust. The US cotton is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern, and the domestic cotton price is supported by demand in the long term [80][81]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is stable, and the price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern. The inventory is normal, and the demand is average [84]. - **Oils and Fats**: The geopolitical disturbance has been repeated, and the vegetable oil price has followed the crude oil price. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all in a volatile pattern, and the market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [85][86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube consumption is difficult to improve, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [89][90]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality have declined, and the low inventory supports the price [92][93]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a wide - range volatile pattern of oil prices. The supply risk has increased, and the price is expected to be in a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support" in the short term [94][95]. - **PX**: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [97][98]. - **PTA**: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply has decreased, and the demand is affected by high - price raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price [99][100]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. The price is affected by the oil price and downstream demand [102]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of raw materials is expected to be in short supply, and the bottle chips are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to follow up [103][104]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East conflict has affected the ethylene glycol, and the near - month inventory reduction is expected to expand. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased seasonally. It has the potential to rise in the short term [105][106]. - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is strong, but the high - level volatility has increased. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [107]. - **Styrene**: The raw material ethylene has risen significantly, and the styrene profit has been significantly compressed. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to slightly reduce the inventory. It follows the oil price [108][109][110]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE maintains a risk - free basis, and the transaction is cold. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a wide - range volatile pattern [111]. - **PP**: The upstream parking and load - reduction have increased, and the PP is relatively strong. The supply has shrunk, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the 5 - 9 positive spread [112]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the methanol is relatively strong. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold long - position bottom positions [112]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is running strongly. The supply has decreased, and the demand has improved. The price is affected by the Middle East situation [114][115]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the PVC price has fluctuated emotionally. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [116]. - **Urea**: The commercial storage release and price - stabilizing policies have led to a possible oscillatory callback of the urea price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [118]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level and increasing, and the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [119][122]. - **Glass**: The downstream demand has recovered slowly, and the glass enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [121][123]. - **Natural Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the rubber price is running weakly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by geopolitical factors [123][124][126]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle East, the BR is generally supported to run strongly. The cost support is strong, and the demand support still exists [126][127][128]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping companies have raised the fuel surcharge, and the offline price has loosened. The futures price is in a wide - range volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities of the peak - season contracts [128][130][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid increase in urea prices is the result of the combined effects of geopolitical risk premiums and cost drivers. However, due to high supply and price - stabilizing policies, the increase in urea futures prices is limited, showing a pattern of multiple rallies followed by pull - backs [7]. - In the short term, urea prices may remain volatile at high levels due to supply - chain concerns and cost support. In the long term, it is necessary to be wary of the ebbing of sentiment after the easing of the Middle - East situation and the pressure of high domestic supply [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Recently, the main urea futures contract has maintained a high - level volatile trend. On March 9, affected by the sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, the urea 2605 futures contract opened and quickly hit the daily limit, reaching a new high since October 2024. It then opened the limit in the afternoon and pulled back, with a closing price of 1905 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton or 5.48% compared to the previous day's settlement price. In the following trading days, the urea market repeatedly rallied and then pulled back, maintaining a high - level volatile trend [1]. Driving Factors Middle - East Geopolitical Conflict - The escalation of the US - Israel - Iran situation is the core cause of the recent increase in urea prices. The Middle East is the largest urea - exporting region, with an annual export volume of about 20 million tons, accounting for 35% of global seaborne trade. About 17 million tons of goods need to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and 3 million tons come directly from Iran. The risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased significantly, and shipowners refuse to dispatch ships while insurance companies cancel coverage, posing an unprecedented threat to global urea supply. Additionally, Qatar Energy Company plans to stop urea production and suspend liquefied natural gas exports, further intensifying international supply pressure [3]. - The current tense geopolitical situation has directly boosted domestic urea export expectations. The market expects India to issue a new round of tenders to hedge supply risks. The interruption of energy and fertilizer supply in the Middle East has affected food production safety. If the situation deteriorates, rising food prices may trigger a global food crisis, strengthening the bullish logic for urea from a macro perspective [4]. Energy Price Increase - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a rapid transmission of risk - aversion and bullish sentiment through the cost side. After the incident, the prices of core energy products such as international crude oil and natural gas soared, driving up the prices of domestic alternative energy sources such as coal. Coal and natural gas are the core raw materials for urea production. For international urea production, natural gas is the main raw material, accounting for over 30% of the production cost; for domestic urea production, coal is the main raw material, accounting for about 50% of the production cost. The overall increase in energy prices has significantly raised the cost lines of domestic and foreign urea, providing strong cost support [5]. - The overall strength of the energy commodity sector has formed an obvious linkage effect. The strong bullish sentiment has led large - scale funds to concentrate on chemical commodities. As one of the core products of the coal - chemical industry, urea has also been favored by overflowing funds, further amplifying the price increase [5]. High Supply and Price - Stabilizing Policies - In terms of supply and demand, the current weekly urea output is 1.51 million tons, and the operating rate is 92%, at the highest level in recent years. The commercial reserve of urea was released ahead of schedule in March, resulting in sufficient short - term supply. On the demand side, the demand for green - turning fertilizers in the agricultural sector has moderately increased, while the operating rates of the compound fertilizer and panel industries are still gradually recovering, and industrial demand is relatively weak. The overall supply - demand situation cannot effectively support a further increase in urea prices [6]. - From a policy perspective, during key agricultural periods, domestic policies prioritize ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. Under this background, it is difficult to issue urea export quotas in the short term. Although international urea prices have risen significantly, domestic low - price urea cannot be exported due to export policy restrictions, which is the main reason why the price gap between domestic and foreign urea has not narrowed [6]. Future Outlook - Key future concerns include the evolution of the geopolitical situation, cost - side fluctuations, export policy orientation, and the actual recovery of domestic downstream demand [9]. - In the short term, urea prices may remain volatile at high levels. In the long term, it is necessary to be wary of the ebbing of sentiment after the easing of the Middle - East situation and the pressure of high domestic supply. If domestic export policies continue to tighten, the price gap between domestic and foreign urea will be difficult to narrow, and the increase in international urea prices will be isolated by policies and difficult to be transmitted to the domestic market. During key agricultural periods, the government may take measures such as timely releasing commercial reserves to deal with high urea prices [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, the Fed's interest rate decision with a "hawkish" stance has short - term negative impacts on precious metal sentiment. Gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and if it cannot recover, it may drop to the low of $4650 in February. It is recommended to buy at - the - money put options. Silver is in a weak and volatile state under the pressure of a strong US dollar, seeking support around $70. Platinum follows gold and silver in a weak oscillation and may fall below $2000. Palladium performs weaker than platinum [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **IF**: The current - to - spot spread is - 6.93, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 40.30% and a full - historical percentile of 79.00%. The inter - period spreads show different values and percentiles for different time combinations such as next - month to current - month, quarter - month to current - month, etc [1] - **IH**: The current - to - spot spread is - 1.25, with corresponding percentiles. The inter - period spreads also have various values and percentiles [1] - **IC**: The current - to - spot spread is 5.60, and the inter - period spreads have different values and percentiles for different time combinations [1] - **IM**: The current - to - spot spread is 62.50% (seems an error in data presentation here), and the inter - period spreads have different values and percentiles [1] - **Cross - variety ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. have their own values, changes, and percentiles [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **IRR and Basis**: For different varieties like TS, TF, T, and TL, the IRR and basis have their latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing [2] - **Inter - period spreads**: For each variety, the inter - period spreads between different quarters (such as current - quarter to next - quarter, current - quarter to alternate - quarter) have their values, changes, and percentiles [2] - **Cross - variety spreads**: Spreads between different varieties like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. have their values, changes, and percentiles [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic futures closing prices**: AU2604, AG2606, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts have closing prices on March 18 and 17, with corresponding price changes and percentage changes [3] - **Foreign futures closing prices**: COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium contracts have closing prices on March 18 and 17, with price changes and percentage changes [3] - **Spot prices**: London gold, silver, spot platinum, palladium, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, silver T + D, etc. have their current and previous values, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Basis**: The basis between gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc. has its current value, change, and 1 - year historical percentile [3] - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, etc. have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Interest rates and exchange rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, US dollar index, and on - shore RMB exchange rate have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Inventory and positions**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of SPRD gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3]