| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月28日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 其元 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 61 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3170 | -10 | -30 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | 81 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3142 | -16 | 134 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3174 | 3188 | -14 | 86 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3199 | 3219 | -20 | 61 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | -50 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3170 | 3180 | -10 | -160 | | | 热卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资省南业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月28日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 12.51 | 0.07 | 98.70% | 91.60% | H期现价差 | 11.61 | 2.99 | 98.70% | 97.30% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | | | | | | -1.33 | 35.36 | 95.0096 | 82.40% | IM期现价差 | -24.95 | -122.09 | 80.0096 | 52.60% | 次月-当月 | 3.40 | -2.20 | 97.10% | 67,90% | | | | 季月-当月 | -11.80 | 0.4 ...

广发期货EDP | 【每日精选观点】 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 合约 | | 观点 | | ZN2603 | 锌 | | | 農荡偏強 | | 甲醇 | | MA2605 | | 震荡偏强 | | 铁矿石 | | 12605 | | 偏弱调整 | | 棕榈油 | | P2605 | | 短线偏强 | | 责金 | | AU2604 | | 偏强震荡 | | 【全品种日评】 | | | | | | 品种 | 板块 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | IF2603 | | IC2603 | | 虽部分主题行业保持强势,但宽基ETF仍大量流 节点,宏观影响不确定性放大。建议做好组合风险 | | 宽基指数维持区间震荡,主题行业结构性上行 | 股指 | IH2603 | | 出,市场交易分歧较大,本周面临美联储议息时间 | | IM2603 | | | | 控制,适时降低多头仓位,尝试双买做多波动率。 | | | | | | 市场对宽松预期低,债市缺乏新的主线驱动,导致 | | | | | | 短期债市仍难突破区间震荡,10年期国债利 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月27日 (20019556) 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 层荡偏强 母 ZN2603 震荡偏强 中醇 MA2605 幅弱调整 铁矿石 12605 棕榈洲 P2605 短线偏强 黄金 偏强震荡 AU2604 【全品种日评】 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 A股放量伴随波动率上升,市场交易分歧较大,本 IF2603 周面临美联储议息时间节点,宏观影响不确定性高 IH2603 股指 A股波幅上升,风格或有所轮换 。建议做好组合风险控制,适时降低多头仓位,尝 IC2603 试双买做多波动率。 IM2603 供需和风险偏好两大利空有所缓解促进超长债回 暖,不过债市缺乏新的主线驱动,导致短期债市可 能仍 ...

2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020- ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资销售业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月27日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 12.44 | 5.73 | 98.70% | 91.40% | 97.50% | H期现价来 | 8.61 | 3.01 | 93.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 32.90% | -36.69 | -104.73 | 66.80% | IM期现价差 | 22.70% | -76.23 | 62.60 | 55.00% | 次月-当月 | 5.60 | 0.40 | 99.10% | 74.90% | | | 李月-当月 | 96.70% | -12.20 ...

汀苏 32 97 -8.1 41.08 -19.75% 壽求: (周慶) 日均出库量 1月16日 涨跌幅 地区 单位 1月23日 版跌 中国 0% 6.18 6.16 0.02 万/立方米 山东 0.37 3.61 3.24 11% 江苏 2.28 -0.34 -15% 1.94 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 10 650 8 550 450 350 250 2 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 2023 =2024 == 2025 == 2026 -2023 == 2024 == 2025 =2022 = 山东辐射松3.9中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 1000 =2022 == 2024 == 2024 == 2025 = -2026 950 200 006 180 850 160 750 140 700 120 ero 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 ...

| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 0.89% | 61.00% | 5628 | 50 | 5678 | 122 | 2.09% | 2950 | 2858 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM603) | 49.30% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.36% | 137 | 58.80% | 3280 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3143 | -12 | -0 36% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷 (HC2605) | 3290 | 3302 | 13.60% | | | | | | ୧୧ | 铁矿石 (12605) | 850 | 785 | 8.38% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 51.60% | 15 | 0.88% | 1734 | ...