1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an obvious style shift. The bond market recovered due to the stock market adjustment and loose liquidity. Precious metals prices were volatile, with gold reaching a new high. The shipping index (European line) had an upward trend in the futures market. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also showed different trends and characteristics, affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and international trade relations [2][5][7][11] - The market is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and international policies, economic data, and trade frictions. For example, the Sino - US tariff issue, the Fed's monetary policy, and the political situation in the United States all have an impact on the market. In the short term, the market may experience fluctuations, but in the long term, the overall trend is still affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand [4][8][17] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - share major indexes opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99%. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis spreads of the main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, China imposed counter - measures on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential interest - rate cut [3][4] - **Funding**: On October 14, the A - share market trading volume increased. The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound. It is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge before entering the market at low levels [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed high, with all contracts rising. Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed a differentiated trend, with medium - and long - term bonds strengthening and short - term bonds weakening [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the short - term liquidity was loose. The money market rate was low, and the long - term capital rate was slightly higher than the previous day [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market recovery is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities, with the T2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.3 [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: China imposed counter - measures on US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Powell hinted at an end to balance - sheet reduction and a possible interest - rate cut. The international precious metals market was volatile, with gold reaching a new high and then falling back [7][8][9] - **Outlook**: The risk of US economic recession has increased, and the Fed's policy may strengthen the downward pressure on the US dollar. Precious metals are expected to have a bull market, but the price may fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking above 11,000 yuan [9][10] - **Funding**: Global economic and political turmoil has led investors to increase their allocation of precious metals through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of October 14, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports from different shipping companies were provided [11] - **Shipping Index**: As of October 13, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the US - West route index decreased by 1.64% month - on - month. As of October 10, the SCFI composite index increased by 4.12% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of October 14, the global container total capacity increased by 7.41% year - on - year. The eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, and the US September manufacturing PMI was 49.1 [11] - **Logic**: The futures market showed an upward trend. Although November and December are traditional peak seasons, macro - factors such as Sino - US tariffs and the cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict are negative factors for the European line [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to many macro - uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the December contract [12] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the average price of spot premium decreased. The spot trading was expected to remain weak [12] - **Macro**: The Sino - US tariff issue may affect copper prices. The weak US employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed [12][17] - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore continued. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased, and it was expected to continue to decline in October. The decline in sulfuric acid prices may affect the smelter's profit and production [14] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper showed some resilience. Although the demand in the fourth quarter may slow down, the power industry may have more orders in the second half of the year [15] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased [16] - **Logic**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The Sino - US tariff issue and the shortage of copper ore supply were the main influencing factors [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [17] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On October 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory was accumulating [17] - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level, and it was expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in October [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19] - **Logic**: The futures price continued to decline. The supply was abundant, the cost support was weakening, and the demand was sluggish [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan [20] - **View**: Oscillation with a downward trend [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the average price of spot premium increased [21] - **Supply**: In September 2025, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. It was expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots would continue to increase slightly in October [21] - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, but the start - up rate decreased due to the holiday [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [22] - **Logic**: The price of Shanghai aluminum futures increased, but the high price suppressed spot purchases. The macro - environment was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,700 and 21,300 yuan [23] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [23] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [23] - **Supply**: In August, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It was expected that the start - up rate would increase slightly in September [24][25] - **Demand**: The demand in September showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and the high price suppressed procurement [25] - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the social inventory in some areas was close to full [25] - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The cost support was strong, the supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was gradually recovering [26] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 and 20,800 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, consider the arbitrage of going long on AD12 and short on AL12 when the spread is above 500 [26][27] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of 0 zinc ingot increased slightly, and the spot was in a weak state with a discount [27] - **Supply**: From January to September, the supply of the zinc industry chain was loose, but the decline in domestic TC and sulfuric acid prices limited the increase in zinc ingot production [28] - **Demand**: The overall demand did not exceed expectations. The start - up rate of primary processing industries decreased due to the holiday, and it was expected to recover gradually next week [29] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price oscillated, and the supply - demand fundamentals were relatively weak. The price was expected to remain oscillating in the short term [30][31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On October 14, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot trading was light [31] - **Supply**: In August, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved in the short term, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia decreased [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the start - up rate of solder increased slightly, but the demand in traditional fields was weak. The inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The supply was relatively strong, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by macro - factors and the supply situation in Myanmar [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls [34] - **Recent View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import spot premium increased [34] - **Supply**: In September, the production of refined nickel increased. It was expected to continue to increase slightly [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel was stable or weak, while the demand for alloys was good. The demand for nickel sulfate had short - term support but faced challenges in the medium term [35][36] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory was stable [36] - **Logic**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The macro - environment was uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals were complex. The price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 120,000 and 126,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [37][38] - **Short - term View**: Range oscillation [38] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased [38] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of chrome iron increased [38] - **Supply**: In September, the production of domestic stainless steel increased, and it was expected to continue to increase in October [39] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased after the holiday, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [39] - **Logic**: The stainless - steel price oscillated downward. The macro - environment was weak, the supply was under pressure, and the demand did not meet expectations [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,400 and 12,800 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill dynamics [40][41] - **Short - term View**: Weak oscillation [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the trading was light [42] - **Supply**: In September, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it continued to increase in the week of October 9. The increase mainly came from new projects and lithium - spodumene processing [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, with an increase in orders from the new - energy and energy - storage sectors. The export volume also increased [43] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory seasonally [43] - **Logic**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state during the peak season. The price was expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main - contract price is expected to oscillate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - risks [44][45] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation and consolidation [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from a high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [45] - **Supply**: In September - October, the production of molten iron remained high, but decreased slightly during the National Day holiday. The production of five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year [45][46] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased year - on - year but improved seasonally. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased year - on - year and was basically the same month - on - month [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories rising. The inventory was expected to increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [47] - **View**: The steel price weakened, but the decline was less than that of iron ore. The supply - demand of steel improved, but the demand for hot - rolled coil needed to be observed. Pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 and 3,200 yuan for rebar and hot - rolled coil in the January contract [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased [48] - **Futures**: As of October 14, the iron - ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [48] - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was PB powder, and the basis of different iron - ore varieties was calculated [48] - **Demand**: As of October 9, the daily output of molten iron, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased slightly [48] - **Supply**: As of October 13, the global iron - ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased. The monthly import volume in September increased [49] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased, the daily port - clearance volume decreased, and steel - mill import inventory decreased [49] - **View**: The iron - ore futures price oscillated downward. The supply - demand fundamentals were complex, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [49][50] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of October 14, the coking - coal futures price oscillated and rebounded. The spot price in Shanxi was stable or decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal increased [51][54] - **Supply**: As of October 8, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed [51][52] - **Demand**: As of October 8, the daily output of coke decreased slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [53] - **Inventory**: The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [53] - **View**: The coking - coal

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided documents. 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5920, futures price 5738, basis 182, basis rate 3.17%, historical quantile 57.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3210, futures price 3061, basis 149, basis rate 4.87%, historical quantile 63.30% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3290, futures price 3241, basis 49, basis rate 1.51%, historical quantile 39.50% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price 835, futures price 782, basis 53, basis rate 6.80%, historical quantile 44.50% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price 1603, futures price 1655, basis - 52, basis rate - 3.14%, historical quantile 36.11% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price 1206, futures price 1154, basis 53, basis rate 4.55%, historical quantile 37.30% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price 85990, futures price 84410, basis 1580, basis rate 1.87%, historical quantile 99.79% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price 20900, futures price 20860, basis 40, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 67.91% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 2953, futures price 2805, basis 148, basis rate 5.26%, historical quantile 67.84% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 22140, futures price 22220, basis - 80, basis rate - 0.36%, historical quantile 38.54% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price 282000, futures price 280430, basis 1570, basis rate 0.56%, historical quantile 85.41% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121250, futures price 120830, basis 420, basis rate 0.39%, historical quantile 78.95% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Spot price 13120, futures price 12565, basis rate 4.42%, historical quantile 93.77% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 73000, futures price 72680, basis 320, basis rate 0.44%, historical quantile 61.01% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9400, futures price 8520, basis 880, basis rate 10.33%, historical quantile 59.71% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price 940.0, futures price 939.0, basis 1.0, basis rate 0.10%, historical quantile 99.10% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price 11530.0, futures price 11533.0, basis - 3.0, basis rate - 0.03%, historical quantile 80.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2900, futures price 2902.0, basis - 2.0, basis rate - 0.07%, historical quantile 34.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8380, futures price 8240.0, basis 140.0, basis rate 1.70%, historical quantile 28.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9250, futures price 9330.0, basis - 80.0, basis rate - 0.85%, historical quantile 6.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2490, futures price 2348.0, basis 142.0, basis rate 6.05%, historical quantile 71.40% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price 10260, futures price 0.6566, basis 301.0, basis rate 3.02%, historical quantile 80.20% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price 2130, futures price 2093.0, basis 37.0, basis rate 1.77%, historical quantile 59.00% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS251)**: Spot price 2550, futures price 2385.0, basis 165.0, basis rate 6.92%, historical quantile 79.20% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2511)**: Spot price 11000, futures price 11450.0, basis - 450.0, basis rate - 3.93%, historical quantile 30.30% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 2780, futures price 2852.0, basis - 72.0, basis rate - 2.52%, historical quantile 28.50% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 14598, futures price 13265.0, basis 1333.0, basis rate 10.05%, historical quantile 88.30% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5850, futures price 5397.0, basis 453.0, basis rate 8.39%, historical quantile 81.70% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8664.0, basis - 64.0, basis rate - 0.74%, historical quantile 15.30% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 9500, futures price 11110.0, basis - 1610.0, basis rate - 14.49%, historical quantile 29.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: Spot price 6412.0, futures price 6338.0, basis 74.0, basis rate - 1.69%, historical quantile 12.50% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4365.0, futures price 4440.0, basis - 75.0, basis rate - 2.03%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4130.0, futures price 4061.0, basis 69.0, basis rate 1.03%, historical quantile 75.30% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: Spot price 6320.0, futures price 6060.0, basis 260.0, basis rate 2.19%, historical quantile 74.00% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6585.0, futures price 6544.0, basis 41.0, basis rate 4.57%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2285.0, futures price 2274.0, basis 11.0, basis rate 0.97%, historical quantile 53.80% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1550.0, futures price 1597.0, basis - 47.0, basis rate - 2.25%, historical quantile 5.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 7035.0, futures price 6918.0, basis 117.0, basis rate 1.85%, historical quantile 56.60% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6625.0, futures price 6602.0, basis 23.0, basis rate 1.36%, historical quantile 47.90% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4580.0, futures price 4692.0, basis - 112.0, basis rate - 3.77%, historical quantile 32.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2428.0, basis 165.8, basis rate 5.22%, historical quantile 70.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price 4498.0, futures price 4137.0, basis 361.0, basis rate 6.33%, historical quantile 47.60% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price 3460.0, futures price 3290.0, basis 170.0, basis rate 10.94%, historical quantile 93.30% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price 11200.0, futures price 10780.0, basis 420.0, basis rate 2.78%, historical quantile 61.20% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1096.0, futures price 1138.0, basis - 42.0, basis rate - 3.83%, historical quantile 60.29% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1164.0, futures price 1234.0, basis - 70.0, basis rate - 6.01%, historical quantile 15.75% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14250.0, futures price 14845.0, basis - 595.0, basis rate - 4.18%, historical quantile 66.38% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4539.1, futures price 4507.2, basis - 31.9, basis rate - 0.71%, historical quantile 11.50% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2961.1, futures price 2958.4, basis - 2.7, basis rate - 0.09%, historical quantile 42.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 7194.9, futures price 7010.0, basis - 184.9, basis rate - 2.64%, historical quantile 0.10% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7373.2, futures price 7145.8, basis - 227.4, basis rate - 3.18%, historical quantile 1.50% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price 102.39, basis - 0.03, basis rate - 0.03%, historical quantile 16.80% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 99.40, futures price 105.77, basis - 0.07, basis rate - 0.07%, historical quantile 18.10% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 105.69, futures price 108.19, basis 0.12, basis rate 0.12%, historical quantile 31.10% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.31, futures price 114.74, basis - 0.01, basis rate - 0.01%, historical quantile 3.00% [1] Other Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Spot price 5528, futures price 5378, basis 150, basis rate 2.79%, historical quantile 76.60% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to uncertainties in Trump's policies and Sino - US trade negotiations, and the accumulation of short - position losses, the financial market's overall liquidity risk has risen, leading to more violent price fluctuations in precious metals. Investors are advised to participate cautiously on a single - side basis. For gold, they can buy lightly when the price is above the $4060 support level and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. For silver, maintain a long - position mindset when the price is above $50. In the long term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since October, due to trade frictions, tariffs, and geopolitical situations, institutional and individual funds have continuously flowed into precious metals for hedging, intensifying the liquidity shortage in the spot market. There have been significant rises and falls in the domestic and overseas precious metal markets. On the morning of October 14, the main Shanghai gold contract AU2512 once rose by more than 4.7% to a record high of 958 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract AG2512 had a maximum increase of 7.6%. However, in the afternoon, the market dived, and the closing price of AU2512 was 938.98 yuan/gram, with a 2.7% increase; AG2512 closed at 11533 yuan/kilogram, with a 2.64% increase [1]. Driving Factors Market Risk - Aversion - Since October, the US government shutdown and political turmoil in many countries, combined with trade frictions, have increased the market's expectation of a recurrence of the global financial market turmoil in early April this year. Panic has increased the callback risk of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and funds have flowed to safe - haven assets. Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, have led the financial market, with continuous inflows of funds from central bank gold purchases to ETF holdings, driving the prices of gold and silver to new historical highs [2]. Silver Supply and Demand - In this round of precious metal price increases, international silver prices have risen more sharply, with the London silver spot price rising above the COMEX futures price, reflecting the depletion of physical spot liquidity. The 1 - month lending and leasing cost of London bank silver has reached an extreme level of 35%. Due to the large - scale short - selling of silver by European and American financial institutions through the derivatives market in the past, and the current increase in silver investment demand, the transportation of a large amount of London inventory to New York has tightened spot liquidity. With relatively backward miner supply, silver prices have been further pushed up. The domestic silver price has also lagged behind the overseas market, and the London lending and leasing rates, as well as the US COMEX inventory and the spot - futures price difference, will reflect whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated [5][7]. Future Outlook - Fundamentally, the risk of US economic recession has increased due to the impact of the government shutdown on the economy and the employment market. The Fed's policy of interest - rate cuts may strengthen, which will suppress the US dollar index. In the long - term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries such as Europe and Japan, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. In extreme cases, the annual increase in the gold price may exceed 100% [8].

Group 1: Methanol Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The methanol market is affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses have suspended accepting Iranian goods, causing port prices and basis to strengthen significantly. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - world pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the inland inventory structure is relatively healthy, supporting prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected new polyolefin plant production suppresses MTO demand. With high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2342 on October 13, up 35 (1.52%) from October 10; MA2605 closed at 2354, up 3 (0.13%); MA15 spread was - 12, up 32 (- 72.73%); Taicang basis was - 54, up 82 (- 60.29%); Inner Mongolia northern line spot was 2083 yuan/ton, up 15 (0.73%); Henan Luoyang spot was 2200, up 5 (0.23%); Taicang port spot was 2300, up 85 (3.84%); the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 218, up 70 (47.46%); the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was 100, up 80 (400%) [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.94, up 1.95 (6.08%); methanol port inventory was 154.3 tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); methanol social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); the downstream formaldehyde operating rate was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); the downstream glacial acetic acid operating rate was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); the downstream MTBE operating rate was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The polyolefin market still faces significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate continues to rise, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is increasing steadily. Overseas end - of - year inventory clearance also impacts the market, leading to prominent medium - and long - term supply pressure. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and attention should be paid to the device restart rhythm. In October, the new device production pressure is high, and the demand side lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7053 on October 13, down 54 (- 0.77%) from October 10; L2509 closed at 7071, down 53 (- 0.74%); PP2601 closed at 6723, down 29 (- 0.43%); PP2509 closed at 6746, down 36 (- 0.53%); L2509 - 2601 was 88, up 1 (1.15%); PP2509 - 2601 was 20, down 40 (- 11.67%); the East China PP drawn wire spot was 6630, down 80 (- 1.21%); the North China LLDPE film material spot was 6980, down 30 (- 0.43%); the North China LL basis was - 30, up 30 (- 50%); the East China pp basis was - 90, unchanged (0%) [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 48.9, up 10.59 (27.67%); PE social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%); PP enterprise inventory was 68.1, up 16.11 (30.96%); PP trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%); the PP device operating rate was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); the PP powder device operating rate was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Group 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For pure benzene, there are expectations of plant resumption and new capacity production, with high domestic supply. The demand side is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream devices plan to reduce production. The port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driver is weak. For styrene, there are expectations of new device production and plant resumption, with increasing supply. The demand is affected by the holiday, with the seasonal peak demand providing some support but limited due to high downstream inventory. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil (November) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); CFR China pure benzene was $703, down $3 (- 0.4%); pure benzene - naphtha spread was 136, up 7 (5.2%); ethylene - naphtha spread was 218, up 10 (4.7%); pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); pure benzene East China spot was 5720 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.3%); BZ futures 2603 was 5682 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.9%); BZ basis (03) was 38, up 37 (3700%); pure benzene import profit was - 35 yuan/ton, up 13 (26.6%); exchange rate (RMB central parity) was 7.1007, down 0.0041 (- 0.1%) [7]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.00 tons on October 13, down 0.10 (- 1.1%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.65 tons, down 0.54 (- 2.7%) [7]. - **Operating Rate**: Asian pure benzene operating rate was 80.1% on October 9, up 1.1 (1.4%) from October 2; domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.6 (0.7%); domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 63.2%, down 0.8 (- 1.2%); phenol operating rate was 78.0%, unchanged (0%); caprolactam operating rate was 96.0%, up 2.2 (2.3%); aniline operating rate was 77.2%, up 2.3 (3.0%); styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.1 (- 0.1%); downstream PS operating rate was 54.6%, down 1.7 (- 3.0%); downstream EPS operating rate was 40.7%, down 2.4 (- 5.5%); downstream ABS operating rate was 71.0%, up 1.5 (2.1%) [7]. Group 4: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For caustic soda, the spot trading is okay, and the overall price is stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream alumina is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity change is limited, and the demand for alumina increment is also limited. In the context of supply - demand mismatch, the domestic spot price is expected to remain weak. There may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter of this year, and the short - term caustic soda price is weak, while the medium - and long - term has demand support. For PVC, the production enterprises' maintenance density has increased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports are gradually recovering after the holiday, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the short term. The external macro - environment is not good, and the demand in the peak season is not obvious. The overall upstream willingness to hold goods has decreased, and the export has relieved some surplus pressure. The short - term PVC price is under pressure [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2593.8 yuan/ton on October 13, up 46.9 (1.8%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 30 (- 0.6%); East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); SH2509 was 2614 yuan/ton, up 8 (0.3%); SH2601 was 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 (- 0.2%); SHITY was - 20.3 yuan/ton, up 38.9 (- 65.8%); SH2509 - 2601 was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 (10.3%); V2509 was 5175 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); V2601 was 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 (- 0.3%); V24 was - 565 yuan/ton, down 12 (- 2.2%); V2509 - V2601 was 454 yuan/ton, down 4 (0.9%) [8]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7 tons on October 9, up 0.1 (0.3%); liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory was 11.1 tons, unchanged (0.1%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4 tons, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7 tons, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8]. - **Operating Rate**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.2% on October 10, up 1.4 (1.6%); caustic soda Shandong sample operating rate was 86.0%, up 0.4 (0.5%); PVC total operating rate was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%); external - procurement calcium carbide - based PVC profit was - 946 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 5.6%) [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For PX, the domestic load is high, and the demand side has some support from PTA new device production expectations and short - term polyester load maintenance, but overall, the supply - demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For PTA, due to low processing fees, there are expectations of plant maintenance and new device production. With loose spot circulation and weak cost support, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, with expected inventory accumulation in October and a weak far - month supply - demand structure. For short - fiber, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by tariffs, with weak supply - demand expectations. For bottle - chip, it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the processing fee may improve slightly in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil (December) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR China MX was $679, down $6 (- 0.9%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); POY150/48 price was 6690 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.8%); FDY150/96 price was 6740 yuan/ton, down 40 (- 0.6%); DTY150/48 price was 7800 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.6%); polyester chip price was 5704 yuan/ton, down 70 (- 1.2%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); 1.4D direct - spinning short - fiber price was 6410 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.2%) [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 tons on October 13, up 3.4 (6.7%); Asian PX operating rate was 79.9% on October 13, up 1.9 (2.4%); Chinese PX operating rate was 87.4%, up 0.7 (0.8%); PTA operating rate was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was 75.1%, up 2.0 (2.7%); coal - based MEG operating rate was 78.8%, up 4.5 (6.0%); polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 72.4%, up 4.6 (6.8%); direct - spinning long - fiber operating rate was 93.8%, up 0.3 (0.3%); short - fiber operating rate was 94.3%, down 1.1 (- 1.2%); pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 64.7%, up 0.5 (0.8%) [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The market was affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses had suspended accepting Iranian goods, leading to a significant strengthening of port prices and basis. The 01 contract is currently oscillating between real - time pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland provides some support for prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin plant commissioning expectation continuously suppresses MTO demand. With the current situation of high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and the actual arrival of imported goods [1]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate is continuously rising, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is steadily increasing. Additionally, the year - end overseas inventory clearance impacts the market, resulting in prominent medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the trading and cancellation of North American goods in the future. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil prices, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and the restart rhythm of plants needs to be monitored. In October, the commissioning pressure of new plants is high, and the demand side still lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: There are expectations of the resumption of some overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity, so the domestic pure benzene supply remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are in a loss - making state, some secondary downstream inventories are high, and some downstream plants have planned and unplanned production cuts, so the demand support is limited. In terms of inventory, the upcoming vessels are at a low level, and the spot buying interest is stronger than that of the far - month contracts, so the pure benzene port inventory continues to decline. In October, the overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be relatively loose, and the price driver is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of oil price trends and geopolitical situations on market sentiment. The BZ2603 contract is expected to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [7]. - **Styrene**: There are expectations of new plant commissioning and the resumption of previously shut - down plants, so the supply is expected to increase. Although some plants are shut down for maintenance due to inventory and industry profit pressure, it is still difficult to fully offset the pressure of new and resumed production, and the overall supply is expected to remain at a high level. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate decreased this week, but the rigid demand support in the seasonal peak season still exists and is expected to gradually recover to the pre - holiday demand level. However, the profit of some downstream industries is under pressure, and the finished product inventory remains high, so the demand support may be limited. Attention should be paid to the situation where the de - stocking rhythm fails to meet expectations and the disturbances of geopolitical and macro news. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be relatively loose, and the styrene price is still under pressure under the weak oil price expectation. The EB11 price should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is fair, and the overall quotation is stable with a slight decline. The downstream alumina demand is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The change in the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited, and the driving effect on the incremental demand for alumina is still limited. Under the supply - demand mismatch pattern, the domestic spot price is expected to continue the weak trend. From the perspective of the alumina commissioning rhythm, there will be more alumina commissioning in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated stockpiling behavior in the fourth quarter of this year, and the spot liquidity may tighten at that time. After the pre - holiday non - aluminum stockpiling ended, the purchases are mainly for rigid demand. After the National Day, as the non - aluminum inventory decreases, there may be a purchase intention due to the low price. In the medium - to - long - term, caustic soda has demand support, but it lacks short - term support and tends to be weak. It can be treated as a short - selling opportunity in the short - term, and the downstream stockpiling rhythm needs to be tracked [8]. - **PVC**: The frequency of maintenance of PVC production enterprises has increased recently, and the market supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports have gradually recovered after the holiday. However, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The short - term external macro - environment expectation is not good, which may continue to affect the market trend in the near future. On the demand side, the peak season has not shown obvious performance, and the profile demand has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. Overall, the willingness of upstream enterprises to hold goods has decreased, but the export has relieved some of the over - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support, and the short - term market is expected to continue to be under pressure. Focus on the downstream demand performance [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The domestic PX operating load remains at a high level. On the demand side, due to the continuously low PTA processing fee, some PTA plants have overhaul expectations, but there are also new PTA plant commissioning expectations, and the polyester load remains stable in the short - term, so the PX demand side has some support. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Coupled with the limited price driver under the weak oil supply - demand expectation and the repeated tariff policies, PX may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for now and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; mainly conduct backwardation arbitrage [9]. - **PTA**: Under the weak supply - demand expectation, the basis repair driver is limited. In terms of absolute price, the price driver is limited under the weak oil supply - demand expectation, and there are negative factors such as repeated tariff policies. PTA may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for TA, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling backwardation arbitrage [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The arrival of MEG at the main ports this week is still high, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise next week. The new Yulong Petrochemical plant has been commissioned, and the plant load will gradually increase. The satellite petrochemical plant has restarted smoothly, and the domestic supply remains at a high level. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure in the far - month is weak, with a high inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December, making MEG operate weakly. The strategy is to short EG01 on rallies; hold the seller position of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350; conduct backwardation arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high levels [9]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. During the National Day, the short - fiber factory inventory did not accumulate much, and the post - holiday inventory pressure is not large. However, affected by tariffs, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter is insufficiently supported. Therefore, short - fiber is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term short - fiber processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the short - fiber processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 1100, and mainly expand the spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [9]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is no news of further production cuts for bottle - chip plants in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - chip demand. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering has slightly declined, and the demand side provides limited support for bottle - chips. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term bottle - chip processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the PR main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the MA2601 closing price increased by 35 to 2342, a 1.52% increase; the MA2605 closing price increased by 3 to 2354, a 0.13% increase; the MA15 spread increased by 32 to - 12, a - 72.73% change; the Taicang basis increased by 82 to - 54, a - 60.29% change. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.23%, and 3.84% respectively. The regional spreads of Taicang - Inner Mongolia North Line and Taicang - Luoyang increased by 47.46% and 400.00% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.95 to 33.94, a 6.08% increase; the methanol port inventory increased by 5.10 to 154.3 million tons, a 3.42% increase; the methanol social inventory increased by 7.05 to 188.3, a 3.89% increase [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.78 to 78%, a 1.01% increase; the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 3.65 to 72.1%, a 5.33% increase; the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 3.99 to 104%, a 3.99% increase. Among the downstream, the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants increased by 3.82 to 86.28%, a 4.63% increase, while the operating rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE decreased by 8.22%, 0.97%, and 0.59% respectively [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the L2601 closing price decreased by 54 to 7053, a - 0.77% decrease; the L2509 closing price decreased by 53 to 7071, a - 0.74% decrease; the PP2601 closing price decreased by 29 to 6753, a - 0.43% decrease; the PP2509 closing price decreased by 36 to 6746, a - 0.53% decrease. The prices of various PE and PP products in East China also showed different degrees of decline [5]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 to 48.9, a 27.67% increase; the PE social inventory decreased by 1.03 to 52.5, a - 1.93% decrease. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 to 68.1, a 30.96% increase; the PP trader inventory increased by 7.39 to 26.1, a 39.48% increase [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE plant operating rate increased by 1.85 to 83.9%, a 2.26% increase; the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.23 to 44.4%, a 0.52% increase. The PP plant operating rate increased by 1.14 to 77.7%, a 1.5% increase; the PP powder operating rate increased by 2.01 to 39.3%, a 5.4% increase; the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.05 to 51.8%, a 0.1% increase [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Brent crude oil (November) price increased by 0.59 to 63.32 dollars/barrel, a 0.9% increase; the WTI crude oil (October) price increased by 0.59 to 58.90, a 1.0% increase; the CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 10 to 567, a - 1.7% decrease; the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained unchanged at 785; the CFR China pure benzene price decreased by 3 to 703 dollars/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased by 5.2% and 4.7% respectively [7]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 70 to 6680, a - 1.0% decrease; the EB2511 futures price decreased by 53 to 6690, a - 0.8% decrease; the EB2512 futures price decreased by 52 to 6708, a - 0.8% decrease. The EB basis (11) decreased by 17 to - 10, a - 242.9% change; the EB11 - EB12 spread decreased by 1 to - 18, a - 5.9% change. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 57 to - 284 yuan/ton, a - 25.2% decrease, while the EB cash flow (integrated) increased by 28 to - 427, a 6.2% increase [7]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.10 to 9.00 million tons, a - 1.1% decrease; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 to 19.65, a - 2.7% decrease [7]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.1% to 80.1%, a 1.4% increase; the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.3%, a 0.7% increase; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate decreased by 0.8% to 63.2%, a - 1.2% decrease. Among the downstream, the PS operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 54.6%, a - 3.0% decrease; the EPS operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 40.7%, a - 5.5% decrease; the ABS operating rate increased by 1.5% to 71.0%, a 2.1% increase [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price increased by 46.9 to 2593.8, a 1.8% increase; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price remained unchanged at 2600. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 30 to 4610, a - 0.6% decrease; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price remained unchanged at 4900 [8]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB East China port caustic soda price remained unchanged at 400 dollars/ton, and the export profit decreased by 0.6 to 164.1 yuan/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price and the CFR India PVC price remained unchanged at 650 and 730 dollars/ton respectively, and the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price remained unchanged at 605 dollars/ton. The PVC export profit increased by 52.7 to 102.9 yuan/ton, a - 105.0% change [8]. - **Supply (Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.4 to 88.2%, a 1.6% increase; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate increased by 0.4 to 86.0%, a 0.5% increase; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.7 to 80.8%, a 6.2% increase. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 50 to - 946 yuan/ton, a - 5.6% decrease [8]. - **Demand (Downstream Operating Rate)**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3 to 83.4%, a - 0.3% decrease; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 0.2 to

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Industrial silicon supply increased in October, with a larger supply increase and a risk of inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. There are no effective regulatory measures to reduce supply for now, and it is expected that production will decline in November when some enterprises in Southwest China reduce production during the dry - season. However, considering the possible increase in raw material costs and the rise in electricity prices in November, the price center is expected to move up. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to around 8000 yuan/ton, buying on dips can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 13 compared to October 10. The basis of these types of industrial silicon decreased, with the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreasing by 15.69%, SI4210 by 55.81%, and Xinjiang 99 silicon by 12.44% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 66.67%, 2511 - 2512 by 6.49%, 2512 - 2601 by 30.00%, 2602 - 2603 by 250.00%, while the spread between 2601 - 2602 decreased [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, with Xinjiang increasing by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons, Yunnan by 2.41% to 5.95 million tons, and Sichuan decreasing by 1.49% to 5.29 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports increased by 3.56% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.07%, Yunnan by 7.69%, Sichuan by 2.75%. Social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.50 million tons, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1.14%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.30% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In October, polysilicon faces increased supply pressure, with production increasing while downstream production scheduling has not increased synchronously, so there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the futures price is at a discount, and the pressure of warehouse receipts has decreased. However, if the inventory pressure persists, the pressure of warehouse receipts may increase in the future. The demand side has not shown significant improvement. Attention can be paid to the changes in export tax - rebate policies and the increase in fourth - quarter installations. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. As supply pressure increases, prices may be under pressure, but if the spot price is firm, there will still be strong support below. Downstream enterprises can pay attention to the opportunity of purchasing on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.38% to 52750 yuan/ton, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 11.85%. The prices of some other products remained unchanged [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "consecutive one - consecutive two" increasing by 14.65%, and the spreads between some other contracts increasing by 400.00% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 6.89% to 12.83 GM, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.32% to 3.10 million tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons, imports decreased by 14.02%, exports increased by 40.12%, and net exports increased by 105.68%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37% to 59.05 GM, imports increased by 74.18%, exports increased by 43.95%, and net exports increased by 41.88%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.19% to 24.00 million tons, silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.39% to 16.78 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2.95% to 7900 lots [2]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View On the supply side, there has been rainfall in overseas production areas, and raw material prices have been firm. However, as the rainfall is expected to improve, the supply is expected to increase, and raw material prices may weaken. On the demand side, before the "National Day" holiday, the domestic tire market was stable. The trading of semi - steel tires was dull, and the social inventory was sufficient with slow consumption. The trading of all - steel tires was average, and there was no obvious pre - holiday stocking. Affected by the US tariff policy on Friday night, commodity prices were generally weak, but the macro - sentiment recovered later, and the rubber price on Monday increased slightly compared to Friday night. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak production season in the main production areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, the price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to be around 15500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex decreased by 2.40%, the full - latex basis decreased by 3.76%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.03%, and the non - standard price difference increased by 13.27%. The price of cup rubber increased by 1.58%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.56% [4]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 9 - 1 increased by 250.00%, and the spread between 1 - 5 decreased by 62.50% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, China's production increased by 12.20%, and India's production increased by 11.11%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76%. Domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, tire exports decreased by 5.46%, natural rubber imports increased by 9.68%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.42% [4]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1.68%. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in general trade increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Soda ash: It is trending weakly, with inventory accumulating significantly during the long holiday. The mid - stream delivery inventory also increased. The market is affected by the news and macro - factors, and the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium term, the downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds can be continued. - Glass: The production and sales are sluggish, and the market quotation is still weak. The market is trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental oversupply. The mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the medium and long term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess capacity. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, attention should be paid to the spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - **Glass**: The prices in East China decreased by 1.49%, the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 20.19%. - **Soda ash**: The price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%, the price of the 2505 contract increased by 0.30%, and the 05 - contract basis decreased by 12.50% [7]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 1.16%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.74%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [7]. Real - estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7]. Report on Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The fundamentals of logs have not changed significantly, and there is no obvious driving force in supply and demand. The near - month contracts fell sharply due to the news that the exchange was discussing the delivery - location premium and discount, while the far - month contracts were relatively strong. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the market. The current market price is near the import cost and lower than the delivery cost. It is recommended to allocate more on the 01 - contract below the import cost [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log - futures contract decreased by 18 yuan to 803 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong at 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu at 780 yuan/cubic meter [8]. Supply - The national coniferous log inventory as of October 10 was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log - arriving ships this week is 13, an increase of 6 from the previous week, and the arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from the previous week [8]. Demand - As of October 10, the daily log outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 830,000 cubic meters from the previous week [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The latest IF spot-futures spread is -31.38, a change of -6.74 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 23.30% and an all-time quantile of 11.90% [1] - The latest IH spot-futures spread is -6.55, a change of 29.9096 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of -5.61 and an all-time quantile of 32.8096 [1] - The latest IC spot-futures spread is -13.34, a change of 3.20% from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 0.40% and an all-time quantile of -145.56 [1] - The latest IM spot-futures spread is -20.54, a change of -213.96 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 30.00% and an all-time quantile of 2.40% [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - On October 13, 2025, the TS basis was 1.4411, a change of -0.0117 from the previous trading day, with a percentile since listing of 18.60% [2] - On the same day, the TF basis was 1.4075, a change of 0.0133 from the previous trading day, with a percentile since listing of 35.00% [2] - The T basis was 1.4163, a change of 0.0307 from the previous trading day, with a percentile since listing of 48.80% [2] - The TL basis was 1.5961, a change of 0.2953 from the previous trading day, with a percentile since listing of 54.60% [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot-Futures Daily Report - On October 13, the domestic AU2512 contract closed at 927.56, up 26.00 (2.88%) from October 10 [4] - The AG2512 contract closed at 11531, up 440 (4.05%) from October 10 [4] - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4130.00, up 94.50 (2.34%) from October 10 [4] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 50.78, up 3.26 (6.86%) from October 10 [4] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot-Futures Daily Report - On October 14, the Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week reference freight rate of MAERSK was 1905, up 0.79% from October 13 [5] - CMA CGM's rate was 2445, down 9.44% from October 13 [5] - MSC's rate was 2050, up 0.10% from October 13 [5] - The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on October 13 was 1031.80, down 1.40% from October 6 [5] - The SCFIS (US West route) was 862.48, down 1.64% from October 6 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Due to the easing of tariff concerns and the expectation of the Fed's monetary easing policy, the copper price showed a strong trend. The shortage of copper mine supply will support the copper price in the medium and long term. The follow - up should focus on the marginal changes in demand and the rhythm of Sino - US tariff negotiations, with the main support level at 84,000 - 85,000 [1]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina is under pressure. Although the current futures price is approaching the mainstream cost range, the upside needs external factors such as supply disturbances in Guinea, rising energy costs, or improved macro - sentiment. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The macro - level is favorable for the aluminum price, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. The high aluminum price restricts downstream procurement, but the low inventory level reflects the resilience of demand. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The raw material supply and demand contradiction is unresolved, and the post - holiday demand is recovering steadily. The inventory accumulation trend is slowing down, which provides upward momentum for the price. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose pattern, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals have limited support for the continuous rise. It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term tin price will continue to oscillate. The follow - up should focus on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - The macro - risk increases, and the cost has support, but the inventory accumulation has certain pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The macro - risk is amplified, the raw material price is firm, and the cost support exists. However, the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, and the inventory removal is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - uncertainty increases, and the market atmosphere is weak. The supply path is gradually clear, and the peak - season demand and inventory reduction support the price. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 21,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 282,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% [15]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 4.31%. In August, the import volume was 264,300 tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. - **Alumina**: In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 217,300 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. In August, the un - forged aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - **Zinc**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 4.17%. In August, the import volume was 25,700 tons, an increase of 43.30% [8]. - **Tin**: In September, the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. In August, the refined tin import volume was 1,296 tons, a decrease of 40.19% [10]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, an increase of 0.27%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 3.00% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 117,200 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. In August, the import volume was 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% [15]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased to 1.72 million tons, an increase of 15.98%. The SHFE inventory increased to 1.097 million tons, an increase of 15.42% [1]. - **Alumina**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 649,000 tons, an increase of 5.19% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased to 56,400 tons, an increase of 1.26% [4]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased to 163,100 tons, an increase of 15.35% [8]. - **Tin**: The SHFE inventory decreased to 5,879 tons, a decrease of 8.55%. The social inventory decreased to 7,786 tons, a decrease of 1.32% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased to 29,572 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The social inventory increased to 43,694 tons, an increase of 7.02% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased to 504,600 tons, an increase of 6.93% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in September was 665,376 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The downstream inventory increased to 60,919 tons, an increase of 15.29% [15].

Report Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap. The production growth rate of SPPOMA is gradually slowing down, and the export data of shipping agencies are strong, which may support the market. After a period of shock and consolidation, there is a chance for palm oil futures to strengthen. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level decline adjustment, with pressure to continue to fall and fill the previous gap. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize in the range of 9200 - 9250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: The bearish sentiment in the market has eased, showing a stop - falling adjustment trend. The tense Sino - US trade relationship still weighs on the CBOT soybean market, and the weak US soybean exports and large domestic supply lead to a weak market. The unstable industrial consumption of US soybean oil also restricts its rise. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is high. After market replenishment, demand weakens, and there is a possibility of a decline in the January contract [1]. Pork Short - term pressure from double - festival hog slaughter is gradually easing, but in the medium - and long - term, the slaughter volume is still increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released. Policy is guiding industry capacity reduction, but the effect needs time. It is expected that the spot price will still face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy is to short on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 [3]. Meal The Sino - US trade relationship is changeable, and the fundamental situation of US soybeans has not improved. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly, with an expected increase in supply, which will suppress the upside of US soybeans. In the fourth quarter of 2025, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected gap in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the M2601 price. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and it is expected that the spot price will be weak this year. If China continues not to purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support in the 2900 - 2950 range, and attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage opportunity [8]. Corn In the northeast region, the new - season corn harvest is accelerating, and farmers are more willing to sell due to the expected bumper harvest, leading to price declines. In the north - China region, the harvest is affected by rainfall, and the wet - grain price is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. However, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively low, and there will be seasonal replenishment demand. Currently, the corn market has strong supply and weak demand and will remain weak [10]. Sugar In mid - September, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, meeting market expectations. Affected by supply expectations, the raw sugar price weakened. Before the National Day, the decline in domestic sugar prices reflected market negative factors. Although the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, domestic fundamentals changed little. Affected by the sharp decline in the overseas market, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Cotton The mainstream theoretical cost of new cotton is between 13800 - 14400 yuan. Cotton enterprises with low costs can gradually hedge with the market. The hedging pressure on the main Zhengzhou cotton contract may increase when the price is above 13500 - 13600 yuan, but the cost also provides some bottom support. Downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises' cotton inventory is not high, and they have demand for raw materials at the current price. In the medium term, the cotton price will face pressure at high levels [14]. Eggs Egg prices are falling, and the breeding industry is in a loss. The supply of large - sized and small - sized eggs may decrease slightly next week, but the inventory of laying hens is still high, and there is inventory accumulation during the festival, so the supply is sufficient and excessive. The demand from food enterprises, families, schools, and institutions is weak, and it is expected that the egg market will decline in the short term without obvious positive support [17]. Summary by Category Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 13, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8550 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 0.70%) from October 11. The futures price of Y2601 was 8268 yuan, down 34 yuan (- 0.41%). The basis of Y2601 was 282 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 8.44%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 13, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9260 yuan, down 200 yuan (- 2.11%) from October 11. The futures price of P2601 was 9364 yuan, down 74 yuan (- 0.78%). The basis of P2601 was - 104 yuan, down 126 yuan (- 572.73%). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 9715.7 yuan, down 176.5 yuan (- 1.78%), and the盘面 import profit was - 352 yuan, up 103 yuan (22.57%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 13, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10150 yuan, down 180 yuan (- 1.74%) from October 11. The futures price of OI601 was 10022 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.39%). The basis of OI601 was 128 yuan, down 141 yuan (- 52.42%) [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 11125 yuan, down 195 yuan (- 1.72%); the price of the 2601 contract was 12135 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts was - 1010 yuan, down 190 yuan (- 23.17%); the position of the main contract was 57257, down 3135 (- 5.19%) [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 10950 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong was 11000 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 10450 yuan, down 250 yuan; in Liaoning was 11150 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong was 11310 yuan, down 300 yuan; in Hunan was 10950 yuan, up 190 yuan; in Hebei was 11200 yuan, up 150 yuan [3]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2930 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.01%); the futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.34%); the basis of M2601 was - 2 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 105.26%); the盘面 import profit of Argentine 12 - month shipments was - 16 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 14.3%) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2392 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the basis of RM2601 was 68 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 1.45%); the盘面 import profit of Canadian 11 - month shipments was 972 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 5.36%) [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3961 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.20%); the basis of the main soybean contract was - 81 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 10.96%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3632 yuan, up 15 yuan (0.41%); the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 308 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 4.64%) [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 1.55%); the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2150 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.92%); the basis was 58 yuan, up 13 yuan (28.89%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 33 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the bulk grain price at Shekou was 2340 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.27%); the north - south trade profit was 114 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 8.06%); the CIF price was 1996 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.13%); the import profit was 344 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 8.66%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 1305, down 531 (- 28.92%); the trading volume was 1621691, up 12154 (0.76%); the number of warehouse receipts was 36709, up 14009 (61.71%) [10]. - **Corn starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan down 31 yuan (- 1.27%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 109 yuan, up 31 yuan (39.74%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 15 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 87.50%); the spread between the starch - corn futures was 309 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.65%); the profit of Shandong starch enterprises was 44 yuan, up 9 yuan (25.71%); the position was 292872, up 19752 (7.23%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12982, up 4954 (61.71%) [10]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 0.47%); the price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5438 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 0.57%); the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 15.57 cents per pound, down 0.53 cents (- 3.29%); the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was 32 yuan, up 5 yuan (18.52%); the position of the main contract was 390023, up 4187 (1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 8681, down 186 (- 2.10%) [13]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5800 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan, unchanged; the basis in Nanning was 362 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.37%); the basis in Kunming was 372 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.09%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar within the quota was 4426 yuan, down 37 yuan (- 0.83%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar outside the quota was 5621 yuan, down 49 yuan (- 0.86%) [13]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13360 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.11%); the price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13300 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 0.19%); the price of the ICE US cotton main contract was 63.54 cents per pound, down 0.23 cents (- 0.36%); the spread between the 5 - 1 contracts was 60 yuan, up 10 yuan (20.00%); the position of the main contract was 563408, up 8208 (1.53%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2867, down 75 (- 2.55%); the number of valid forecasts was 31, up 3 (10.71%) [14]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton 3128B was 14642 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.08%); the CC Index 3128B was 14789 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.09%); the FC Index M 1% was 12833 yuan, down 104 yuan (- 0.80%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1282 yuan, up 27 yuan (2.15%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1342 yuan, up 37 yuan (2.84%); the spread between the CC Index 3128B and the FC Index M 1% was 1956 yuan, up 118 yuan (6.42%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 2808 yuan per 500 kg, up 2 yuan (0.07%); the price of the egg 01 contract was 3211 yuan per 500 kg, up 51 yuan (1.61%); the spread between the 11 - 01 contracts was - 403 yuan, down 49 yuan (13.84%) [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 2.81 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan (- 3.57%); the basis was 6 yuan per 500 kg, down 106 yuan (- 95.02%); the price of egg - laying chicks was 2.60 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.46 yuan per jin, down 0.18 yuan (- 3.88%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.51, down 0.32 (- 11.31%); the breeding profit was - 16.90 yuan per hen [17].