Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday in February, market sentiment may be more cautious, and capital reduction may bring correction pressure. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East and South America, the announcement of the Fed Chair candidate, and the release of US economic data may cause uncertainty in precious metals. With reduced liquidity, market fluctuations may be more intense, and investors are advised to operate cautiously and use options to protect long - position profits. In the long term, although the Fed's monetary policy is short - term cautious, the long - term easing expectation remains unchanged. Trade frictions, geopolitical risks, and the "de - dollarization" trend will support the price of precious metals [7][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, driven by macro - geopolitical concerns and capital sentiment, precious metal prices rose significantly. However, due to tightened market liquidity caused by US stock fluctuations, concentrated long - position stop - profits led to a sharp short - term decline in precious metals. On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai gold AU2604 ended its "five - consecutive - day rise" with a 4.71% drop, and the main contract of Shanghai silver AG2604 dropped 6.03%. Platinum and palladium futures were more affected by the decline in commodity and stock markets, with the main contract PT2606 dropping 11.79% and PD2606 dropping 11.87% [1]. Driving Factors Impact of US Stock Market - The release of Q4 2025 earnings reports of US technology companies showed that Microsoft's large AI capital expenditure without corresponding business growth led to concerns about the mismatch between high valuations and investment returns. Its stock price dropped over 10% on Thursday, with a market value loss of $420 billion. This triggered a chain reaction in the financial market, causing a general decline in US stocks. Precious metals and other commodities experienced a "flash crash" due to concentrated long - position stop - profits. International gold prices dropped over 8% and international silver prices dropped over 12% [2]. Physical Delivery and Supply - The previous sharp rise in silver prices was related to the tight physical supply. The industrial and investment demand for silver increased, causing the visible inventories in New York and Shanghai to reach new lows. However, after the COMEX silver January contract expired with a 50 - million - ounce physical delivery on Thursday, the delivery demand for the February contract decreased. In the London spot market, the silver ETF holdings decreased, and the market lending rate dropped to a recent low, indicating a temporary withdrawal of long - position forces. In China, the silver inventories in the two Shanghai exchanges continued to decline, with the SHFE silver inventory decreasing by 26.4 tons on Friday, reaching a new low in over 10 years [5]. Market Outlook - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand becoming the largest source. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, while investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, and the purchase of gold bars and coins rose by 16% to 1374 tons, a 12 - year high [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].

| | 钢材 | RB2605 | 市场情绪影响钢价走强 | 螺纹钢波动参考3000-3200区间,热卷波动参考 3150-3350区间走势。做多卷螺价差可继续持有 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 0 | | 端 | 铁矿 | 12605 | 钢厂补库兑现,港口库存压力持续增大 | 可在800左右逢高布局空单 | | 色 | | | | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1050-1250,多焦 | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 山西产地煤价有所松动,蒙煤跟随盘面波动,盘面强势反弹 | 煤空焦炭 | | | 焦炭 | J2605 | 主流焦企提涨落地,港口贸易价格持稳,盘面强势反弹 | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1650-1850,多焦 煤空焦炭 | | | 硅铁 | SF603 | 供需暂无重大矛盾,成本有提涨预期 | 贯幅震荡,区间参考5500-5900 | | | 锰硅 | SM605 | 锰矿补库接近尾声,猛硅供需改善 | 宽幅震荡,区间参考5600-6000 | | | 铜 | CU2603 | 铜价再创新高,现货贴水大幅走扩 | 观望,主力关注 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 金融衍生品： 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

1. Report's Core View - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, spot references, and notes of various commodities on January 30, 2026, covering ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5678, futures price is 5736, basis is - 58, basis rate is 11.01%, historical quantile is 49.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5940, futures price is 5926, basis is 14, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 27.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3260, futures price is 3157, basis is 103, basis rate is 3.26%, historical quantile is 48.40%, and the spot reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3308, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.54%, historical quantile is 11.40%, and the spot reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 844, futures price is 799, basis is 45, basis rate is 5.67%, historical quantile is 35.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1713, futures price is 1723, basis is - 10, basis rate is - 0.61%, historical quantile is 58.20%, and the spot reference is the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1156, futures price is 1165, basis is - 9, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 30.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 104185, futures price is 109110, basis is - 4925, basis rate is - 4.51%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM electrolytic copper average price [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 24860, futures price is 25590, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.85%, historical quantile is 0.41%, and the spot reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2625, futures price is 2816, basis is - 191, basis rate is - 6.77%, historical quantile is 5.94%, and the spot reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Spot price is 25220, futures price is 25950, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.81%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price [1]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: Spot price is 438600, futures price is 446130, basis is - 7530, basis rate is 1.69%, historical quantile is 1.66%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: Spot price is 144650, futures price is 147470, basis is - 2820, basis rate is 1.91%, historical quantile is 1.04%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14670, futures price is 14585, basis is 85, basis rate is 0.58%, historical quantile is 18.02%, and the spot reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 168000, futures price is 164820, basis is 3180, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 94.93%, and the spot reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8925, basis is 325, basis rate is 3.64%, historical quantile is 18.89%, and the spot reference is the SMM East China oxygen - passing Si5530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1243.4, futures price is 1249.1, basis is - 5.7, basis rate is - 0.50%, historical quantile is 1.40%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 29998.0, futures price is 30891.0, basis is - 893.0, basis rate is 2.90%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3080, futures price is 2802.0, basis is 278.0, basis rate is 9.92%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8710, futures price is 8382.0, basis is 328.0, basis rate is 3.91%, historical quantile is 61.10%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9290, futures price is 9362.0, basis is - 72.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 6.00%, and the spot reference is the delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2480, futures price is 2325.0, basis is 155.0, basis rate is 6.67%, historical quantile is 76.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: Spot price is 10240, futures price is 9446.0, basis is 794.0, basis rate is 8.41%, historical quantile is 96.40%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2340, futures price is 2281.0, basis is 59.0, basis rate is 2.59%, historical quantile is 63.80%, and the spot reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2535.0, basis is 95.0, basis rate is 3.75%, historical quantile is 43.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 12650, futures price is 11165.0, basis is 1485.0, basis rate is 13.30%, historical quantile is 85.00%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3960, futures price is 3021.0, basis is 939.0, basis rate is 31.08%, historical quantile is 90.30%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15600, futures price is 14910.0, basis is 690.0, basis rate is 4.63%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price of cotton in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5370, futures price is 5257.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 2.15%, historical quantile is 15.30%, and the spot reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, with the origin of Guangxi [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9400, futures price is 9642.0, basis is - 242.0, basis rate is 2.51%, historical quantile is 14.10%, and the spot reference is the apple delivery theoretical price (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8000, futures price is 8895.0, basis is - 895.0, basis rate is - 10.06%, historical quantile is 46.00%, and the spot reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7373.0, futures price is 7380.0, basis is - 7.0, basis rate is - 0.09%, historical quantile is 29.40%, and the spot reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the main Chinese port, converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5265.0, futures price is 5332.0, basis is - 67.0, basis rate is 1.26%, historical quantile is 31.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3845.0, futures price is 3957.0, basis is - 112.0, basis rate is 2.83%, historical quantile is 15.40%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in the East China region [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6705.0, futures price is 6720.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 0.22%, historical quantile is 37.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Spot price is 8095.0, futures price is 7913.0, basis is 182.0, basis rate is 2.30%, historical quantile is 65.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2282.0, futures price is 2352.0, basis is - 70.0, basis rate is 2.98%, historical quantile is 8.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1817.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is 2.04%, historical quantile is 7.50%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in the Shandong region [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6875.0, futures price is 7049.0, basis is - 174.0, basis rate is 2.47%, historical quantile is 0.80%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6785.0, futures price is 6870.0, basis is - 85.0, basis rate is - 1.24%, historical quantile is 8.10%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4680.0, futures price is 4895.0, basis is - 215.0, basis rate is - 4.39%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 1869.0, futures price is 1964.0, basis is - 95.0, basis rate is - 4.85%, historical quantile is 29.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4848.0, futures price is 4348.0, basis is 500.0, basis rate is 11.50%, historical quantile is 68.40%, and the spot reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou region [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3210.0, futures price is 3478.0, basis is - 268.0, basis rate is - 7.71%, historical quantile is 4.30%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in the Shandong region [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price is 13000.0, futures price is 13390.0, basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 2.91%, historical quantile is 4.60%, and the spot reference is the distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China by CNPC [1]. -

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月30日 期货和现货价格 32 97 江苏 41.08 -8.1 -19.75% 日均出库量 需求: (周慶) 单位 1月23日 1月16日 涨跌幅 地区 旅跌 0% 中国 6.18 6.16 0.02 万/立方米 山东 11% 0.37 3.61 3.24 江苏 2.28 -0.34 -15% 1.94 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港 库存(万方) 750 JO 650 8 550 450 350 250 2 120 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 =2023 == 2025 == 2026 -2023 -2024 == 2025 =2022 - 山东辐射松3.9中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 1000 =2022 == 2024 == 2025 == 2025 = -2026 950 200 600 J80 850 Jeo 750 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term news and capital sentiment have a significant impact on the volatility risk of precious metals. Gold long positions should take profit on rallies, and one can buy at dips for at - the - money options. [1] - Silver price volatility remains high, institutional ETFs continue to reduce positions and stay on the sidelines. It is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions. [1] - The easing of the supply tightness in the London palladium spot market may limit its upside space, so short - term observation is advisable. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - The AU2604 contract closed at 1249.12 on January 29, up 62.92 (5.30%) from January 28. [1] - The AG2604 contract closed at 30891 on January 29, up 1672 (5.72%) from January 28. [1] - The PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 29, up 19.30 (2.78%) from January 28. [1] - The PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 on January 29, up 22.60 (4.48%) from January 28. [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5410.80 on January 29, down 0.20 (0.00%) from January 28. [1] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 115.79 on January 29, down 0.84 (-0.72%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2636.90 on January 29, down 68.20 (-2.52%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 2035.00 on January 29, down 60.50 (-2.89%) from January 28. [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 5377.16, down 36.65 (-0.68%) from the previous value. [1] - London silver was at 115.87, down 0.74 (-0.63%) from the previous value. [1] - Spot palladium was at 2792.00, up 121.00 (4.53%) from the previous value. [1] - Another spot palladium was at 2106.00, up 92.00 (4.57%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1243.40, up 20.36 (5.01%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 29998, up 688 (2.35%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 704, up 33 (4.99%) from the previous value. [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.72, down 3.56 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%. [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 893, down 984 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%. [1] - Another basis was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%. [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was not provided, and the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00%. [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver was 46.73, up 0.33 (0.72%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 40.44, down 0.16 (-0.40%) from the previous value. [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.00 (0.38%) from the previous value. [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.36, down 0.02 (-1.63%) from the previous value. [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24, down 0.02 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53, down 0.03 (-0.8%) from the previous value. [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89, down 0.01 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The US dollar index was 96.16, down 0.19 (-0.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9482, up 0.0049 (0.07%) from the previous value. [1] Inventory and Position - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103029, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 482008, down 26360 (-5.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35877200, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 408253340, down 3431295 (-0.83%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18785246, down 47826 (-0.25%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 108157437, up 482886 (0.45%) from the previous value. [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087, down 3.43 (-0.31%) from the previous value. [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523, down 112.76 (-0.72%) from the previous value. [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oil and Fat - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise to around 4,350 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may break through 9,400 yuan and reach 9,500 yuan. CBOT soybean oil futures may continue to rise, and domestic soybean oil futures may reach 8,500 yuan. Rapeseed oil may test 9,500 yuan [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure, but the decline is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a consolidation pattern. International sugar production is affected by factors such as reduced production in Brazil and slow progress in Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are expected to rebound from the low level [3]. Jujube - The current jujube sales are slower than last year. The commodity market sentiment has boosted the futures price, but it is still undervalued. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival sales and inventory [4]. Apple - The Spring Festival stocking is in full swing, and the inventory in main producing areas has decreased. The sales structure is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory [5]. Corn - The corn market has support at the bottom and pressure at the top, and the futures price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release [8]. Pig - The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The futures and spot prices are both weak, and the market is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [11]. Meal - US soybeans have strong support at the bottom. The domestic spot market is loose, but the downside space of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited. The pre - holiday stocking sentiment may fade, and the futures price may decline [14]. Egg - The egg supply is normal, but the market digestion is slowing down. The futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [17]. Group 3: Summary by Category Oil and Fat - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 0.57% to 8,790 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 rose by 0.67% to 8,382 yuan. The basis decreased by 20 yuan [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rose by 1.19% to 9,370 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 rose by 0.99% to 9,362 yuan. The basis increased by 18 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 1.07% to 10,386 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 rose by 1.24% to 9,446 yuan. The basis decreased by 6 yuan [1]. Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.20% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton decreased by 0.22% to 63.64 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.37% to 15,832 yuan [2]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.5%. Import volume increased by 49.5%, and the export of textile products increased [2]. Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 1.35% to 5,257 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.74% to 14.72 cents/pound [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.75% to 5,340 yuan [3]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, and sales decreased by 37.18%. The industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube - The futures price of jujube 2605 increased by 0.74% to 8,895 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt increased by 3,313 [4]. Apple - The futures price of apple 2605 increased by 1.15% to 9,642 yuan/ton. The national main - producing area inventory decreased by 4.21% to 654.05 million tons [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2603 increased by 0.31% to 2,281 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit increased by 2000% to 19 yuan [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 increased by 0.20% to 2,535 yuan/ton [8]. Pig - **Futures market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 21.01% to 1,485 yuan (base). The price of pig 2605 decreased by 0.47% to 11,640 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot market**: The price in Henan decreased by 500 yuan to 12,650 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry situation**: The sample slaughter volume decreased by 1.54%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.32% to 3,130 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.72% to 2,802 yuan [14]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.78% to 2,580 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 1.22% to 2,325 yuan [14]. - **Soybean**: The price of the first - grade soybean futures increased by 1.39% to 4,436 yuan, and the price of the second - grade soybean futures increased by 0.70% to 3,596 yuan [14]. Egg - The price of the egg 03 contract decreased by 0.89% to 3,021 yuan/500KG. The egg - feed ratio increased by 8.81% to 2.84, and the breeding profit increased by 129.87% to 3.19 yuan/feather [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Tin**: Short - term prices are volatile due to market sentiment, and caution is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, pay attention to the CL premium trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise gradually, but be aware of price volatility risks [3]. - **Zinc**: The price has support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply, and there is room for restocking as demand recovers. The short - term price downside is limited, and focus on changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expect the price to fluctuate, and pay attention to the decline in industrial silicon production and the production reduction process of enterprises. The price range is expected to be between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. The price is under pressure and may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton and 45000 yuan/ton. Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the production reduction situation and downstream demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The futures price is driven by sentiment, but the high inventory in the spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line [9]. - **Aluminum**: In the long - term, the price is likely to be strong, but in the short - term, there is a risk of a high - level correction. Long - term investors can buy on dips [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Focus on the actual flow of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and downstream pre - holiday inventory preparation [11]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main reference range is 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In the short - term, it is expected to adjust with a strong - side fluctuation. The main reference range is 14200 - 15200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and steel mill dynamics [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price may decline and adjust. The main reference range is 155000 - 170000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and inventory changes [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.46% to 438600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open - discount decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.48% to 104185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.20% to 25290 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2443 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price increased by 165 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the N - type silicon wafer price decreased [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 2.47% to 24860 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2081 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum widened [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.30% to 148000 yuan/ton, and the futures import loss was - 266 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils was basically stable, and the price difference between futures and spot decreased [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 2.33% to 168000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.06% [2]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and imports decreased by 4.02% [3]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both weakened slightly, and there was a slight inventory build - up [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and the import volume increased by 77.50% [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10%, and imports increased by 84.63% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel rough steel decreased by 26.72%, and imports increased by 29.32% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and the demand decreased by 2.50% [17]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Tin**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.79%, and social inventory increased by 4.94% [2]. - **Copper**: Global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years, with more than 50% of the inventory in the United States [3]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.35%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.57% [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.89% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.45% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.11% [11]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 5.43%, and social inventory increased by 4.38% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.82%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 9.90% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% in December, and the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [17].