叶倩宁 Z0016628 | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 8月5日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2510合约 | 782.50 | 781.42 | 1.08 | 0.14% | 元/克 | | AG2510合约 | 9075 | 9039 | 36 | 0.40% | 元/千克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月2日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 3435.00 | 3428.60 | 6.40 | 0.19% | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 37.84 | 37.45 | 0.39 | 1.04% | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月5日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 伦敦金 | 3380.51 | 3372.33 | 8.18 | 0.24% | 美元/盎司 | | 伦敦银 | 37.78 | 37.40 | 0.38 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 单位 | 品种 | 张跌 | 8月5日 | 8月4日 | 张跌 | 8月4日 | 单位 | 旅鉄幅 | 8月5日 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.6% | 68.76 | -1.12 | POY150/48价格 | 6715 | 6735 | -20 | 布伦特原油(10月) | 67.64 | -0.3% | 美元/桶 | -1.7% | -1.13 | WTI原油 (9月) | FDY150/96价格 | edde | 0 | 65.16 | 66.29 | ୧୦୦୧ | 0.0% | | | -25 | -0.2% | -1 | DTY150/48价格 | 7935 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月6日 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 20.80% | F期现价差 | -21.45 | -3.55 | 29.90% | | | | | | | 0.27 | 59:4096 | H期前仍是 | -0,74 | 60.6096 | 前现价差 | 2.20% | IC期现价差 | -104.64 | -11.90 | 7.7096 | IM湖砌价差 | 12.70% | -105.48 | -8.39 | 75.00% | | -13.00 | 次月-当月 | -0.60 | 27.80% | 31.70% | 季月-当月 | -44.00 | -0.40 | 20.90% | 25 ...

| 硅铁(SF509) | 5778 | 62 | 64.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5716 | 1.08% | 52 | 6070 | 0.86% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 6018 | 35.10% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 127 | 57.90% | 3233 | 3.93% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3360 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 13 | 22.70% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3470 | 3457 | 0.38% | | | | | | 26 | 3.25% | 824 | 23.20% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 799 | -5.26% | 1635 | -86 | 折算价 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 2025年8月1日 | | 更新 | | 现价 江苏一级 8380 8420 -40 -0.48% | | 期分 Y2509 8192 8240 -48 -0.58% | | 基差 Y2509 188 180 8 4.44% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏8月 09+180 09 + 180 0 - | | 仓单 0 13709 -13709 -100.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 7月31日 7月30日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8920 8990 -70 -0.78% 现价 广东24度 | | 期价 P2509 8900 8982 -82 -0.91% | | 基差 P2509 20 8 12 150.00% | | 菜豆油价差 现货 1220 1260 -40 -3.17% | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 9246.8 9289.4 -42.7 -0.46% | | 盘面进口利润 -347 -307 -3d -12.80% 广州港9月 | | 仓单 570 570 0 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 7月31日 7月30日 涨跌 涨 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月1日 星期五 | | | | 間敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78565 | 79285 | -720.00 | -0.91% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 180 | 165 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78460 | 79090 | -630.00 | -0.80% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 0 | -20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78425 | 79145 | -720.00 | -0.91% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 40 | 25 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 844 | 984 | -139.47 | ...

| | 原油 | SC2509 | 供应边际增量叠加宏观不确定性,油价短期维持区间震荡格局 | 建议仍以波段思路为主,WTI下方支撑给到 [65,66],布伦特在[69,70],SC在[505,515] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 短期建议波段思路对待,波动区间给到1700- | | | 尿素 | UR2509 | 供应弹性缺失叠加宏观情绪不高,短期盘面偏弱震荡为主 | 1800. 仅供参考 | | | PX | PX2509 | 宏观情绪降温以及油价高位回落,短期PX走势承压 | PX09高空对待,关注6750-6800附近支撑 | | | PTA | TA2509 | 驱动有限,PTA随原料震荡 | 偏空对待:TA9-1滚动反套操作:PTA盘面加工费 低位做扩(250附近) | | | 短纤 | PF2509 | 供需预期偏弱,短期无明显驱动 | 单边同TA: PF盘面加工费在800-1100区间震荡 | | | | | 瓶片维持减产,加工费上方空间仍待需求开启,PR跟随成本波 | PR单边同PTA: PR主力盘面加工费预计在350- | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月31日 | | | 問敏波 | 7 0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 县差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | 101 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3330 | 3380 | -50 | 41 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3450 | 3510 | -60 | 161 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3311 | 3418 | -107 | 79 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3248 | 3356 | -108 | 142 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3289 | 3399 | -110 | 101 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | 31 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3380 | 3440 | -60 | -29 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The second round of China-US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the A-share market declined and adjusted after the Politburo meeting, with consumption rising against the trend. There was a short - term expectation gap in the market [2] - The Politburo meeting led to a short - term release of negative factors, causing the bond futures to rise. The 7 - month PMI index should be monitored [2] - US macro - policies and other negative factors may put pressure on the gold price, and it can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. The silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan) [2] - The market expectation of the container shipping index (European line) has cooled, leading to a price decline [2] - The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and the coking plants have the expectation of further price increases [2] - The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the aluminum market [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply, and the oil price is in a strong - side shock [2] - The urea market is restricted by export difficulties and high inventory, and the PX market is affected by the downstream of the industrial chain [2] - The PTA market has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials, and the short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand expectation [2] - The bottle - chip market is following the cost fluctuation, and the ethylene glycol market's supply - demand situation has turned loose [2] - The soybean meal market is suppressed by the expected high yield of US soybeans, and the pig market's previous policy benefits have been digested [2] - The corn market is in a state of long - short entanglement, and the palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - The sugar market has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and the cotton market has a tight old - crop inventory and a weak downstream market [2] - The egg market is seasonally strong in the short - term but bearish in the long - term, and the apple market is trading lightly [2] - The red - date market has a stable and firm spot price but is bearish in the long - term, and the soda - ash market has repeated price fluctuations [2] - The glass market has a weakening spot sales and repeated price fluctuations, and the rubber market has a high - level shock [2] - The industrial silicon market's futures price fluctuates downward with the market, and the polysilicon market has multiple contracts reaching the daily limit [2] - The lithium carbonate market has a wide - range shock due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined and adjusted. It is recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures, replace it with a small amount of short positions in the far - month contract 6300 strike price MO put options, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish attitude [2] - **Treasury Bond**: After the Politburo meeting, short - term negative factors were released, and the bond futures rose. It is recommended to try to go long in the short - term and pay attention to the 7 - month PMI index [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is under pressure and can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. Silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan), and if it breaks, it may fall to $36 (8700 yuan) [2] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore follows the steel price. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The exchange's position - limit intervention has caused large fluctuations in futures. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low levels. The mainstream coking plants have the fifth - round price increase, and it is recommended to go long on coke at low levels [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation. The reference price range for the main contract is 77000 - 79000, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The aluminum price has a narrow - range shock, and the reference price ranges for the main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, and zinc are given. The tin price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way, with the resistance levels of WTI, Brent, and SC given [2] - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventory restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way within the range of 1700 - 1800 [2] - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is tight, but the downstream of the industrial chain affects the trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2] - **PTA**: It has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to be bearish above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the processing margin at a low level [2] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100 [2] - **Bottle - chip**: It maintains production cuts, and the processing margin's upward space depends on demand. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Multiple domestic and foreign plants have restarted, and the supply - demand situation has turned loose. It is recommended to wait and see on the EG09 single - side and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various other chemicals such as caustic soda, PVC, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The soybean meal market is affected by the expected high yield of US soybeans. The pig market is bearish. The corn market is in a long - short entanglement. The palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - **Others**: For other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For special commodities such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] - **New Energy Commodities**: For new - energy commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]