1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Nickel - Refined nickel prices are high, stimulating production, but demand is weak. The nickel - iron market has a large psychological price gap between supply and demand, and transactions are weak. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and downstream purchases of nickel - sulfate are limited. Social inventories are accumulating. Overall, nickel prices are expected to fall first and then fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Stainless - steel futures have large fluctuations. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Steel mills are reducing production, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. The market is expected to be in a shock - adjustment state in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was weak last week. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is relatively optimistic. Social inventories are being depleted, and upstream inventories are low. The price is expected to remain in a relatively strong range, but may fall in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [8]. Copper - In the long - term, copper supply is restricted by capital expenditure, and demand is increasing due to AI - related grid upgrades, so the bottom price is expected to rise. In the short - term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing under the narrowing of CL premium. Attention should be paid to CL premium changes and downstream demand, with the main contract support at 101,500 - 103,000 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - Zinc ore shortages support prices. Although zinc ore port inventories are accumulating, smelter profits are under pressure, and demand is suppressed by high prices. The overall fundamentals are good, and the price downside is limited, with the main contract support at 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment. In the long - term, due to the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high price fluctuations. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply - demand is seasonally weak. It is expected that the ADC12 price will fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have risen sharply, driven by macro - factors and geopolitical risks, but have deviated from fundamentals. High prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and volatility decline before going long, with price support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon weakened slightly, and it will continue in February. Supply is expected to decline further. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to demand changes [17]. Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are weak. Production is expected to decrease, and the inventory accumulation slope is slowing down. The 45,000 yuan/ton level is expected to have support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.25% to 146,150 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of futures decreased by 515.79% to - 1,638 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 0.69% to 14,400 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 405.88% to 430 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 4.46% to 160,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 286.79% to 12,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 104,410 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 45.25% to 3,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.98% to 25,790 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 317 yuan/ton to - 2,126 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.27% to 428,650 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 4.65% to - 10,538.60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.81% to 24,350 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan broken primary aluminum increased by 16.73% to 3,174 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.80% to 24,660 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss increased by 302.8 yuan/ton to - 1,779 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 183.33% to - 75 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 2.29% to 51,300 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 31.44% to 4,160 yuan/ton [18]. Month - to - Month Price Difference - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 390 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 155 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 increased by 245 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract increased by 1.88% to 8,955 yuan/ton; the difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 775 yuan/ton to - 1,230 yuan/ton [18]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 9.06% to 25,396 tons [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.82% to 45.77 million tons [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 99,200 tons; total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 64,560 tons [8]. - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 6.85% to 67.33 million tons [9]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons; China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.35% to 11.72 million tons [13]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports remained unchanged at 17,637 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 7.70% to 10,468 tons [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons; recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 2.11% to 4.64 million tons [15]. - **Aluminum**: In January, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 738.56 million tons; China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25% to 78.2 million tons [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 55.4 million tons [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons; polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.3 million tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver prices may fluctuate greatly in the range of $70 - 110 due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Before the holiday, institutional ETFs continued to reduce positions and wait and see, leading to a decline in liquidity. It is recommended to wait for market volatility to fall and use methods such as selling options for unilateral positions to lock in risks [1] - Platinum prices will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market to adjust in place before trying to buy or conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations [1] - Due to short - term news and capital sentiment, the volatility risk is relatively large. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Gold can be allocated to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long after the market stabilizes. Light - position participation in long gold - silver ratio arbitrage is also recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/gram on January 30, down 87.70 yuan or 7.02% from January 29 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 27941 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2950 yuan or 9.55% from January 29 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 30, up 19.30 or 2.78% from January 29 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 yuan/gram on January 30, up 22.60 or 4.48% from January 29 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 503.30 or 9.30% from January 29 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 85.25 on January 30, down 30.54 or 26.37% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2178.20 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 458.70 or 17.40% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1701.00 on January 30, down 334.00 or 16.41% from January 29 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 497.13 or 9.25% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 85.26 on January 30, down 30.61 or 26.42% from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 2300.00 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 492.00 or 17.62% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1820.00 on January 30, down 286.00 or 13.58% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1163.99 yuan/gram on January 30, down 79.41 or 6.39% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 27530 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2468 or 8.23% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 638 yuan/gram on January 30, down 9.31% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.57, up 8.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 411, up 482 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 27.47, up 6.17 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.01, down 0.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.10% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.57 on January 30, up 10.83 or 23.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 41.57 on January 30, up 1.13 or 2.80% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.28 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/rhodium was 1.36 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.63% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26% on January 30, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.52% on January 30, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90% on January 30, up 0.01 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 97.12 on January 30, up 0.95 or 0.99% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9589 on January 30, up 0.0107 or 0.15% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 103029 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SHFE silver inventory was 455068 (in ten - grams) on January 30, down 26940 or - 5.59% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35748596 on January 30, down 128604 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 405886807 on January 30, down 2366533 or - 0.58% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19038541 ounces on January 30, up 253295 or 1.35% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 104879945 on January 30, down 3277493 or - 3.03% from the previous value [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087 tons on January 30, up 0.57 or 0.05% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the basis, basis rate, historical quantiles, spot price, futures price, and spot reference for various commodities including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures on February 2, 2026 [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the basis is 18, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 57.40%, spot price is 5678, and futures price is 5660 [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the basis is 122, basis rate is 1.67%, historical quantile is 45.00%, spot price is 5970, and futures price is 5872 [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the basis is 3.90%, historical quantile is 54.00%, spot price is 3250, and futures price is 3128 [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the basis is - 18, basis rate is 0.55%, historical quantile is 11.40%, spot price is 3270, and futures price is 3288 [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the basis is 46, basis rate is 5.79%, historical quantile is 83.70%, spot price is 837, and futures price is 792 [1] - For coke (J2605), the basis is 13, basis rate is 0.74%, historical quantile is 72.71%, spot price is 1734, and futures price is 1722 [1] - For coking coal (JM2605), the basis is 0, basis rate is 0.04%, historical quantile is 32.00%, spot price is 1156, and futures price is 1156 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the basis is 730, basis rate is 0.70%, historical quantile is 94.37%, spot price is 104410, and futures price is 103680 [1] - For aluminum (AL2603), the basis is 100, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 85.20%, spot price is 24660, and futures price is 24560 [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the basis is - 145, basis rate is 9.91%, historical quantile is 45.25%, spot price is 2623, and futures price is 2768 [1] - For zinc (ZN2603), the basis is - 55, basis rate is 0.43%, historical quantile is 33.95%, spot price is 25835, and futures price is 25720 [1] - For tin (SN2603), the basis is 18650, basis rate is 4.80%, historical quantile is 99.79%, spot price is 428650, and futures price is 409000 [1] - For nickel (NI2603), the basis is 2700, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 98.54%, spot price is 142700, and futures price is 140000 [1] - For stainless steel (SS2603), the basis is 430, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 79.18%, spot price is 14570, and futures price is 14140 [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the basis is 12300, basis rate is 8.30%, historical quantile is 99.55%, spot price is 160500, and futures price is 148200 [1] - For industrial silicon (SISEOF), the basis is 400, basis rate is 4.52%, historical quantile is 23.35%, spot price is 9250, and futures price is 8850 [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the basis is 2.6, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 99.80%, spot price is 1164.0, and futures price is 1161.4 [1] - For silver (AG2604), the basis is - 411.0, basis rate is - 1.50%, historical quantile is 0.40%, spot price is 27941.0, and futures price is 27530.0 [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the basis is 293.0, basis rate is 10.59%, historical quantile is 69.90%, spot price is 3060, and futures price is 2767.0 [1] - For soybean oil (V2605), the basis is 338.0, basis rate is 4.08%, historical quantile is 62.30%, spot price is 8620, and futures price is 8282.0 [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is 10.54%, historical quantile is 11.20%, spot price is 9190, and futures price is 9240.0 [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the basis is 183.0, basis rate is 8.00%, historical quantile is 82.00%, spot price is 2470, and futures price is 2287.0 [1] - For rapeseed oil (Oleos), the basis is - 770.0, basis rate is 8.21%, historical quantile is 96.20%, spot price is 9380.0, and futures price is 10150 [1] - For corn (C2603), the basis is 69.0, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 70.30%, spot price is 2340, and futures price is 2271.0 [1] - For corn starch (CS2603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 4.32%, historical quantile is 53.20%, spot price is 2630, and futures price is 2521.0 [1] - For live pigs (LH2603), the basis is 1430.0, basis rate is 12.75%, historical quantile is 84.00%, spot price is 12650, and futures price is 11220.0 [1] - For eggs (JD2603), the basis is 1018.0, basis rate is 33.91%, historical quantile is 92.70%, spot price is 4020 [1] - For cotton (CF605), the basis is 1130.0, basis rate is 7.70%, historical quantile is 75.80%, spot price is 15800, and futures price is 14670.0 [1] - For sugar (SR605), the basis is 132.0, basis rate is 2.52%, historical quantile is 18.50%, spot price is 5380, and futures price is 5248.0 [1] - For apples (AP605), the basis is - 118.0, basis rate is 1.24%, historical quantile is 19.20%, spot price is 9518.0, and futures price is 9400 [1] - For red dates (C1605), the basis is - 950.0, basis rate is 10.61%, historical quantile is 44.60%, spot price is 8000, and futures price is 8950.0 [1] Energy and Chemical Products - For paraxylene (PX603), the basis is 30.0, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 37.90%, spot price is 7312.0, and futures price is 7282.0 [1] - For PTA (TA605), the basis is - 70.0, basis rate is + 1.33%, historical quantile is 29.60%, spot price is 5270.0, and futures price is 5200.0 [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the basis is - 108.0, basis rate is 16.60%, historical quantile is 42.76%, spot price is 3805.0, and futures price is 3913.0 [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF603), the basis is 14.0, basis rate is 0.21%, historical quantile is 47.40%, spot price is 6670.0, and futures price is 6656.0 [1] - For styrene (EB2603), the basis is - 171.0, basis rate is 2.22%, historical quantile is 63.40%, spot price is 7714.0, and futures price is 7885.0 [1] - For methanol (MA605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is + 2.16%, historical quantile is 11.80%, spot price is 2270.0, and futures price is 2320.0 [1] - For urea (UR605), the basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 16.70%, spot price is 1790.0, and futures price is 1790.0 [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the basis is - 64.0, basis rate is + 0.91%, historical quantile is 8.30%, spot price is 7014.0, and futures price is 6950.0 [1] - For PP (PP2605), the basis is - 34.0, basis rate is 10.50%, historical quantile is 18.20%, spot price is 6824.0, and futures price is 6790.0 [1] - For PVC (V2605), the basis is - 283.0, basis rate is 9.30%, historical quantile is 45.59%, spot price is 5063.0, and futures price is 4780.0 [1] - For caustic soda (SH603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 13.01%, historical quantile is 27.70%, spot price is 1975.0, and futures price is 1866.0 [1] - For LPG (PG2603), the basis is 558.0, basis rate is 73.40%, historical quantile is 44.79%, spot price is 4848.0, and futures price is 4290.0 [1] - For asphalt (BU2603), the basis is - 164.0, basis rate is 12.91%, historical quantile is 17.90%, spot price is 3260.0, and futures price is 3424.0 [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 4.60%, historical quantile is 12.34%, spot price is 13000.0, and futures price is 13390.0 [1] - For glass (FG605), the basis is - 116.0, basis rate is 28.51%, historical quantile is 43.44%, spot price is 1056.0, and futures price is 940.0 [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the basis is - 40.0, basis rate is 29.97%, historical quantile is 28.51%, spot price is 1204.0, and futures price is 1164.0 [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the basis is - 110.0, basis rate is 10.68%, historical quantile is 88.07%, spot price is 16360.0, and futures price is 16250.0 [1] Financial Futures - For IF2603.CFE, the basis is 4.7, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 77.50%, spot price is 4711.0, and futures price is 4706.3 [1] - For IH2603.CFE, the basis is 7.5, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 90.70%, spot price is 3074.0, and futures price is 3066.5 [1] - For IC2603.CFE, the basis is - 8.1, basis rate is + 0.10%, historical quantile is 71.60%, spot price is 8370.5, and futures price is 8362.4 [1] - For IM2603.CFE, the basis is 5.7, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 91.20%, spot price is 8260.6, and futures price is 8254.9 [1] - For 2 - year bond (TS2603), the basis is 0.04, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 41.70%, spot price is 102.39, and futures price is 100.11 [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2603), the basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, historical quantile is 30.00%, spot price is 105.88, and futures price is 99.66 [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2603), the basis is 0.06, basis rate is 0.05%, historical quantile is 23.30%, spot price is 108.29, and futures price is 100.63 [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2603), the basis is 0.61, basis rate is 0.54%, historical quantile is 84.70%, spot price is 126.60, and futures price is 111.86 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is currently firm, with some specifications in short supply and rising prices in Jiangsu due to low inventory. Trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually as the Spring Festival approaches. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduced shipping volume in the future. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. The current valuation of log futures has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at the current price [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - On January 30, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 all increased compared with January 29, with increases of 1.48%, 1.66%, 0.89%, and 0.50% respectively. The basis of the main contract decreased by 13 [2] - The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 30 compared with January 29 [2] - The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged from January 23 to January 30 [2] - On February 2, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly compared with February 1, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.20 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - In December 2023, the port shipment volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, a 7.82% increase from November [2] - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports decreased by 1 to 7, a 13% week - on - week decrease, and the total arrival volume decreased by 2.7 million cubic meters to 21.9 million cubic meters, an 11% week - on - week decrease [4] Group 6: Inventory - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 188.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.2 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 41.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.1 million cubic meters [3][4] Group 7: Demand - As of January 23, the daily average log出库量 was 6.18 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.02 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong increased by 11%, while the demand in Jiangsu decreased by 15% [4]

发期货页 场。在任何 何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成肤 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货 分析方法: 具附属 经常主要将经济 网 哈自拍 下得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 2026年2月2日 Z0019938 | | 原 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 江苏均价 8670 8790 -120 -1.37% 现价 | | 期份 Y2605 8282 8382 -100 -1.19% | | 募差 Y2605 388 408 -20 -4.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+400 05 + 410 -10 - | | 仓单 25960 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9240 9370 -130 -1.39% | | 期价 P2605 9240 9362 -122 -1.30% | | 基差 P2605 0 8 -8 -100.00% | | 现货基差报价 广 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: High nickel prices stimulate production, but demand is weak. The price is expected to fall and then fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan [2]. - Stainless steel: Cost support is strengthened, but demand and inventory digestion are insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The regulatory environment is strengthened, and the price is supported. It may fall in the short - term, with the main reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan [8]. - Copper: In the long - term, the copper price bottom is expected to rise. In the short - term, it may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to CL premium changes, with the main support range of 101,500 - 103,000 yuan [9]. - Zinc: The zinc price is supported by tight mines. Although there is negative feedback on the demand side, the fundamentals are good, and attention should be paid to zinc mine TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main support range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan [13]. - Tin: Short - term prices fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious. In the medium - to - long - term, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [14]. - Aluminum alloy: It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to waste aluminum circulation, import window changes, and pre - holiday downstream inventory [15]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait for price stability and volatility decline to go long, and pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan [16]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to oscillate, with the main price range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to production reduction and demand changes [17]. - Polysilicon: In February, supply and demand are weak. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to order recovery and capacity regulation. The price may be supported at 45,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 160,500 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 104,410 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 25,790 yuan/ton, up 1.98% [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 428,650 yuan/ton, down 2.27% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,350 yuan/ton, down 0.81% [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,660 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: East China SI4210 industrial silicon price is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 51,300 yuan/kg, down 2.29% [18]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 is - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 is - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 is - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 is - 1000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: 2602 - 2603 is - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 is 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 1230 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in January is 31,400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month [2]. - **Stainless steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in January is 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production in December is 99,200 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month [8]. - **Copper**: Electrolytic copper production in January is 117.93 million tons, up 0.10% month - on - month [9]. - **Zinc**: Refined zinc production in January is 56.06 million tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: SMM refined tin production in December is 15,950 tons, down 0.06% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in December is 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month [15]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina production in January is 738.56 million tons, down 1.78% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: National industrial silicon production in January is 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon production in January is 10.08 million tons, down 12.73% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Urea**: On January 30, the urea futures oscillated and pulled back, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is sufficient as domestic urea enterprises are operating at a high level. Industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is picking up. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: In February, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but due to high import pressure and port inventories, its price may follow the trend of oil prices and downstream styrene. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to turn loose in February. With high oil prices and weakening demand, the price of both is expected to face pressure. The strategy is to short lightly on a single - side basis and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply is contracting as some regions are moving towards reduced production and suspension of tapping. The cost support is strengthening due to rising overseas raw material prices. Demand is weakening as some enterprises are on holiday. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. It is recommended to try long positions [3]. - **Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP)**: Before the Spring Festival, far from the delivery month, the price is driven by macro factors and market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. In the short term, the price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, but the upward space is limited [7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is slightly decreasing, and the port inventory is also slightly decreasing. However, the weak MTO demand suppresses the price rebound. The key variables are the import volume from Iran and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a slight increase in inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival. Glass has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to the same period last year. It is also expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the first quarter, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. In February, PTA may face significant inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand pattern. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also face weak supply - demand in February. Strategies for each product mainly involve light - position operations, observing spreads, and option trading [13]. - **Crude Oil**: In January, international oil prices were generally strong, but the rebound space is limited due to the weak supply - demand pattern. In February, the supply is expected to increase, and demand remains weak. The price may face a callback if geopolitical risks do not expand further [14]. - **LPG**: The price of LPG futures is decreasing. The inventory in ports is decreasing, and the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The market situation needs to be further observed [17]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures' rebound height is expected to be limited. PVC's supply is slowly increasing, demand is decreasing due to the festival, and the inventory is increasing. The price is supported by cost and market sentiment [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 30, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 contracts and the main contract decreased compared to January 29, with the main contract down 1.36% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 01 - 05 spread down 6.67% and the 09 - 01 spread up 600.00% [1]. - **Main Force Positions**: The long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, with the long positions down 3.11% and the short positions down 6.58% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong down 0.46% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions had slight changes, with the price in Shandong (small - particle) up 0.56% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, and the inventory in factories and ports changed. The production enterprises' order days increased [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of pure benzene - related products also changed. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 3.8% [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in the spot and futures markets decreased, and the EB - BZ spread decreased [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and aniline changed, with the EPS cash flow up 666.7% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed, with the domestic pure benzene operating rate up 0.9% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased, and the basis increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 9 - 1 spread down 13.49% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China in December changed, and the operating rates of tire factories and the production and export of tires also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in bonded areas and the futures inventory in factories decreased [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 decreased on January 30 compared to January 29 [7]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and varieties changed, with the LP05 spread up 6.15% [7]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis of LLDPE increased [7]. - **Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of non - standard PE and PP products changed slightly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, with the PE device operating rate up 0.81% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PE and PP enterprises and the social inventory changed, with the PE enterprise inventory down 3.58% [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased, and the MTO05盘面 increased by 19.38% [10]. - **External Prices**: The CFR China price of methanol decreased slightly [10]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the overseas enterprise operating rate down 14.19% [10]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions and the futures prices of glass decreased, and the basis increased [12]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions remained stable, and the futures prices of soda ash decreased, with the basis increasing [12]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass changed slightly [12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories decreased, and the inventory of soda ash factories increased slightly [12]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate improved to some extent [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil and other upstream products changed, with the price of PX decreasing [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased, and the cash flows changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products changed, with the PX - naphtha spread down 1.7% [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA increased, and the basis and processing fees changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries changed, with the MEG comprehensive operating rate up 1.8% [13]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, with the SC price up 3.40%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel changed, with the US diesel crack spread up 15.10% [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [17]. - **External Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps changed, with the FEI M1 contract down 0.98% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the downstream PDH operating rate down 2.46% [17]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, with the price of PVC increasing [20]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit increased [20]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR price of PVC remained stable, and the FOB price of PVC increased, with the export profit increasing significantly [20]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and the profits of different production methods changed, with the PVC total operating rate down 1.1% [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, with the alumina industry operating rate down 2.1% [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with the PVC total social inventory down 5.8% [20].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资和咖业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年2月2日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.66 | 92.60% | 77.50% | 上期间处差 | -25.47 | H期现价来 | 7.50 | -11.98 | 94.60% | 90.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 90.10% | -8.12 | -7.88 | 71,60% | IM期现价差 | 5.74 | 18.79 | 90.00% | 91,20% | 次月-当月 | -8.40 | 92.6096 | 62.40% | 1.00 | | | 零月-当月 | -10.20 | -7.20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 1,489.0 -3,226.0 -7,265.0 -4,571.0 9,087.0 -5,863.0 -4,373.0 -2,755.0 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF26 ...