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广发期货《农产品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:04
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月5日 | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 更甜 | | | | | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8420 | 8370 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2601 8108 期价 | 8110 | -2 | -0.02% | | 其差 Y2601 312 | 260 | 52 | 20.00% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | 드 | | 仓单 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8570 | 8600 | -30 | -0.35% | | 期价 P2601 8616 | 8664 | -48 | -0.55% | | 其关 P2601 -46 | -64 | 18 | 28.13% | | 现货墓差报价 广东1月 01+2 ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:03
免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发捐途对这些信息的准确性及完整他不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法,并不代表厂发明货或其谢闹机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内窗仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达敌意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价,投资者撰此 投资,风险直担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归厂发明治所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布。复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前日 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 166 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | 0 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢现货 ...
《金融》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
110 -1.40 29 | | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 | | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | IF期现价差 | -29.70 | -11.10 | | 27.80% | 13.60% | | | | | | | | | | | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -4.77 | -5.02 | | 31.10% | 34.70% | | | | | | | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -116.23 | -22.22 | | 13.50% | 2.00% | | ...
《黑色》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前日 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 166 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | 0 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3310 | -30 | 236 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3108 | 3145 | -37 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3144 | 3168 | -24 | 66 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3044 | 3079 | -32 | 166 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3310 | -20 | 25 | 元/肥 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3230 | -20 | -55 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3280 | 3310 | -30 | ...
《农产品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月5日 | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 更甜 | | | | | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8420 | 8370 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2601 8108 期价 | 8110 | -2 | -0.02% | | 其差 Y2601 312 | 260 | 52 | 20.00% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | 드 | | 仓单 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8570 | 8600 | -30 | -0.35% | | 期价 P2601 8616 | 8664 | -48 | -0.55% | | 其关 P2601 -46 | -64 | 18 | 28.13% | | 现货墓差报价 广东1月 01+2 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory accumulation inflection point, market sentiment is weak, and rubber prices have further declined. Future attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex rubber increased by 170 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton, a rise of 38.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.90%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.56% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, a rise of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 73.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24 percentage points to 65.34%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859,000 tons to 10.2954 million tons, a rise of 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 6.71 million pieces to 56.3 million pieces, a decline of 10.65% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a rise of 3.57%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons to 44,655 tons, a rise of 4.73% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the price is trending weakly, with supply exceeding demand. The market is under pressure, and the operation should be bearish. For glass, although there is a short - term demand expectation during the peak season, in the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term long opportunities at low prices can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and the 2505 and 2509 contracts remained unchanged. The price of glass in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The 05 basis remained unchanged at - 109 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and the Northwest remained unchanged. The 2505 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%. The 2509 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,354 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The 05 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 100% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 86.89%, and the weekly output decreased by 13,000 tons to 757,600 tons, a decline of 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 161,300 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 750 tons to 88,540 tons, a decline of 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.966 million weight boxes to 65.79 million weight boxes, a rise of 4.72%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a rise of 2.54%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 22,000 tons to 676,900 tons, a decline of 3.18% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%. The year - on - year change in construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%. The year - on - year change in completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%. The year - on - year change in sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market increases supply. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. When the price drops to around 8,500 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 255 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a rise of 106.25% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.09%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 40% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 31,400 tons to 452,200 tons, a rise of 7.46%. Xinjiang's production increased by 32,400 tons to 235,600 tons, a rise of 15.94%. Yunnan's production decreased by 5,700 tons to 53,800 tons, a decline of 9.60%. The national开工率 increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74%. Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 30 tons to 10,810 tons, a decline of 0.28%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,460 tons, a rise of 1.47%. The social inventory decreased by 100 tons to 558,000 tons, a decline of 0.18% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped significantly by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton. After the sharp decline in futures, the futures premium has also significantly decreased. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also decreases. The market is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state. Trading strategies include buying on dips in the futures market, selling put options around 50,000 in the options market, and buying photovoltaic ETFs, new - energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - fed material decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The basis of N - type material increased by 2,300 yuan/ton to - 1,515 yuan/ton, a rise of 60.29% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous month increased by 80 yuan/ton to - 2,175 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.55% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 GW to 14.24 GW, a decline of 3.33%. Polysilicon production decreased by 1,300 tons to 28,200 tons, a decline of 4.41% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 4,000 tons to 134,000 tons, a rise of 3.08%. Polysilicon imports increased by 300 tons to 130 tons, a rise of 28.46%. Polysilicon exports decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decline of 28.16% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, a rise of 1.16%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 GW to 18.93 GW, a rise of 2.49% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The log futures market is expected to continue its weak - side oscillation. This week, the supply of logs at ports is increasing, but downstream orders are insufficient. The market is under pressure, but the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides some support for the futures price [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of log 2511 increased by 0.5 yuan/cubic meter to 740.5 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 0.07%. The price of log 2601 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 776.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.70%. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 1.32% [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.01 to 7.131. The import theoretical cost increased by 8.34 yuan/cubic meter to 812.94 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 1% [7]. - **Supply (Monthly)**: Port shipments increased by 247,000 cubic meters to 2.013 million cubic meters, a rise of 13.99%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 to 54, a rise of 17.39% [7]. - **Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: National inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a rise of 1.41%. Shandong's inventory increased by 18,000 cubic meters to 1.883 million cubic meters, a rise of 0.97% [7]. - **Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly)**: National average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10% [7].
《能源化工》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 本报告风节。 本讯 一周年来 天 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 品种 | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6879 | 6888 | -d | -0.13% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7005 | 7020 | -15 | -0.21% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6560 | 6576 | -16 | -0.24% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୧୫୪ | 6692 | -3 | -0.04% | | | L2509-2601 | 126 | 132 | -6 | -4.55% | | | PP2509-2601 | 129 | 116 | 13 | 11.21% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6500 | 6460 | 40 | 0.62% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 6780 | 6800 | -20 | -0.29% | ...
《有色》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:32
| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 86590 | 86840 | -250.00 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | -5 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 86735 | 86335 | -200.00 | -0.23% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | -10 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 86500 | 86745 | -245.00 | -0.28% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -90 | -100 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3315 | 3321 | -5.85 ...
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 09:52
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 07:38
| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月4日 | 网材产业期现日报 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 削值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 231 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3145 | 3166 | -21 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3168 | 3189 | -21 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3079 | 3106 | -27 | 141 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | -୧2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | ...