Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but positions have not rebounded, indicating a stage of restorative rebound. The market sentiment is gradually improving, but the recovery process remains uncertain [3]. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The 10-year bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may trade between 108 - 108.3 [3]. - Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The dividend sector led the market higher, while the TMT sector was slightly weak. After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets recovered, but positions did not rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, use bull spreads, or buy call options on days of significant intraday pullbacks to position for the index [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillated weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - sided positions, focus on flattening the yield curve, and arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival to avoid post - holiday liquidity shortages [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95. Platinum and palladium followed gold's rebound and entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for a clear direction [3]. Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have reasonable valuations and short - term long positions can be attempted. Iron ore prices are under pressure after steel mills completed restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices in Shanxi have weakened slightly, and Mongolian coal prices have retreated from highs. Coke price increases by major coke producers have been implemented. Both are expected to trade in a range, and a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventories have increased in three locations, and the CL premium is oscillating. It is recommended to take a long - term long position on dips. Aluminum prices may experience short - term increased volatility, but the long - term outlook remains positive. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [3]. New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, and an arbitrage window is about to open. Polysilicon futures prices rose in the afternoon under the influence of the space photovoltaic concept and are expected to trade at high levels. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro environment is temporarily stable, and the price fluctuations have narrowed. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemical Products**: PX and PTA are expected to trade in a high - level range with limited upward drivers. Short - fiber and bottle - grade polyester chips follow the raw material price trends. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies and look for opportunities to narrow the processing margins [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Ethanol is facing significant inventory build - up pressure in February. Pure benzene and styrene are affected by supply - demand and inventory factors. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to narrow spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is abundant in February. Palm oil has potential positive fundamentals in January, which may support the price. Corn prices are oscillating with weak single - sided drivers [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The number of live pig slaughterings has increased significantly, and the supply - demand game before the festival has intensified. Egg prices continue to be weak, while apple prices are oscillating higher [3]. - **Sugar, Cotton, and Others**: Sugar prices are expected to trade in a range, and cotton prices have limited downward adjustment space. It is advisable to hold long positions. Egg prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in apples and then exit at an appropriate time [3].

数据来源: Wind, Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 县左率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5698 | 5654 | 44 | 0.78% | 60.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5920 | 5868 | 55 | 0.89% | 35.70% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3230 | 3110 | 120 | 3.86% | 53.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷(HC2605) | 3260 | 3274 | -14 | -0 43% | 13.00% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12605) | 836 | 782 | રેર | 7.01% | 44.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday demand for construction site stocking, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, along with strong reluctance of traders to sell. The 03 contract has a valuation repair due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually, and the weak demand remains unchanged. So, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards the current price [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 4, 2026, the price of log 2603 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 6.5 yuan from the previous day with a 0.81% increase; log 2605 was 802.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; log 2607 was 807.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan with a 0.06% increase. The basis of the main contract was - 57.5, down 6.5 from the previous day. Most spot prices at ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine increased by 2.73% to 113 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was unchanged at 125 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 5, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.940 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost calculated with a 15% over - length was 771.89 yuan, up 20.66 yuan from the previous day with a 3% increase [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 109.5 million cubic meters, down 46.32% from November. The number of ships at the port was 29, down 47.27% from November [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 242 million cubic meters, down 7 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 177.10 million cubic meters, down 6.20%; in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, up 23.63% [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, up 0.01 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, up 8%; in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, down 18% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the cost - side risks are released, the chemical sector has recovered at low levels. However, the overall supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first quarter is weak, while the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, providing support for low prices. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Short - fiber supply and demand are seasonally weak in February, and bottle - chip supply is expected to increase while demand weakens seasonally [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 7095 yuan/ton on February 4, down 75 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.1%. Its cash - flow decreased by 128 yuan to - 45.2%. FDY150/96 price was 7255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, and its cash - flow increased 552.0%. DTY150/48 price was 8155 yuan/ton, up 2.4%, and its cash - flow decreased by 82 yuan to - 23.5%. Polyester chip price was 5860 yuan/ton, up 1.6%, and its cash - flow decreased by 34.4%. Polyester bottle - chip price was 6256 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price was 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [2] 3.2 Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (April) was 65.14 dollars/barrel, up 1.93 dollars, a 3.1% increase. WTI crude oil (March) was 63.21 dollars/barrel, down 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was 598 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars, a 2.4% increase. CFR China MX was 740 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. CFR China PX was 902 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. PX spot price (in RMB) was 7309 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan, a 0.4% increase [2] 3.3 PX - related Prices and Spreads - PX03 - PX05 spread was - 126 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars. PX - crude oil spread decreased by 18 dollars to - 2.6%. PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 dollars to 77 dollars/ton. PX - MX spread was 162 dollars/ton, down 4.1% [2] 3.4 PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 1.2% increase. TA futures 2605 was 5150 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. PTA spot processing fee was 10.6%, up 39 yuan. PTA disk processing fee (05) was 439 yuan, up 2.1% [2] 3.5 MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory was 89.7 million tons on February 4, up 3.9 million tons, a 4.5% increase. MEG arrival forecast was 14.7 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 81.0%, up 0.6%. Chinese PX operating rate was 89.2%, up 0.3%. PTA operating rate was 76.6%, unchanged. MEG comprehensive operating rate was 81.8%, up 3.0%. Polyester comprehensive operating rate was 86.2%, up 2.0%. Direct - spun filament operating rate was 84.6%, down 1.1%. Polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 66.1%, down 0.3%. Direct - spun short - fiber operating rate was 85.3%, down 12.9%. Pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 56.0%, down 3.0% [2] 3.7 MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. EG futures 2605 was 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. EG05 - EG09 spread was - 111 dollars/ton, up 4.7%. Naphtha - based MEG cash - flow increased 5.0%. Ethylene - based MEG cash - flow increased by 4 dollars. MEG import profit increased by 31.8% [2] 3.8 Views on Each Product - **PX**: The supply - demand outlook in the first quarter is weak, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. PX05 is expected to fluctuate between 7100 - 7600 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis [2] - **PTA**: The first - quarter supply - demand is weak, with expected large inventory accumulation, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. TA05 is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis and a low - level positive spread for TA5 - 9 [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. EG2605 is expected to fluctuate between 3700 - 4100. There is an opportunity for a positive spread for EG5 - 9 at low levels, and the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 can be sold at high prices [2] - **Short - fiber**: Supply and demand are seasonally weak in February. The price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The short - fiber disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, with a strategy of narrowing the spread at high prices [2] - **Bottle - chip**: Supply is expected to increase in February, while demand weakens seasonally. The bottle - chip factory is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the processing fee. The absolute price follows the cost. The PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, with an opportunity to narrow the spread at high prices and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high prices [2]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务费格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年2月5日 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 展新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | F期现价差 | -5.08 | 77.40% | 51.00% | 2.02 | | | | | | | | H期现价去 | 2.56 | 4.14 | 78.60% | 71.10% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | 14.54 | 19.24 | 98.30% | 96,70% | IM期现价差 | -3.72 | 77.53 | 80.00% | 79.40% | | 次月-当月 | -5.20 | -0.60 | 77.4096 | 48.80% | 零月-当月 | -33.80 | -1.20 | 48.30% | 32.60% | 远月-当月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

| 81.00 | 期货 | œ | | --- | --- | --- | | GF FUTURES | | | 苹果 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 苹果2605 (主力) 9594 109 9485 1.15% 苹果2610合约 8310 8256 54 0.65% 元/吨 基差 -1394 -1285 -109 -8.48% 苹果5-10价差 1284 1229 55 4.48% 槎龙果品批发市场到货 60 53 7 13.21% 江门水果批发市场到货 35 27 8 29.63% 车 下桥水果批发市场到货 42 34 8 23.53% 115274 5380 期货持仓量 120654 4.67% # 全国冷库库存 654.05 682.78 -28.73 -4.21% 万吨 盘面利润 -1525 -1434 -91 -6.35% 元/吨 主产区现货成交价格 | 油脂产业期现日报 | 1 75 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

免费声明 关注微信公众号 | 失矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月5日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 深扶夫 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 848.9 | 844.6 | 4.4 | 0.5% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 835.8 | 831.4 | 4.4 | 0.5% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 835.5 | 831 2 | 4.3 | 0.5% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 873.1 | 868.8 | 4.3 | 0.5% | | | 05合约基差:卡粉 | 67.4 | 67.1 | 0.4 | 0.5% | 元/吨 | | 05合约基差:PB粉 | 54.3 | 53.9 | 0.4 | 0.7% | | | 05合约基差:巴混粉 | 54.0 | 53.7 | 0.3 | 0.6% | | | 05 ...

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