1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since March 24th, PVC prices have continuously declined, and the market pricing logic has gradually returned to the reality of high inventory and weak demand [1]. - Although there is still some support from the supply contraction of ethylene - based PVC and export expectations, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, and the cost - side will limit the downward space in the long - term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since March 24th, PVC has continuously declined, giving back the previous gains, and the price center has significantly dropped [1]. Driving Factors Analysis Geopolitical Premium Cooling and Export Expectations Facing High - price Resistance - The previous strong rise of PVC prices was mainly due to the reduction of global ethylene production under geopolitical disturbances, which led to a significant decline in the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate and an enhanced expectation of domestic export substitution [3]. - As the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has declined, the accumulated non - cost premium has been concentratedly given back. Foreign customers are resistant to high prices, and new export inquiries have decreased [3]. Internal Supply Hedging and Weak Recovery of Downstream Demand - While the price was rising due to the expected reduction of ethylene - based PVC supply, the domestic PVC internal supply structure changed. The production profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC improved, leading to an increase in its production load, and the overall supply reduction was limited [4]. - As of March 27th, the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 70.7%, a decrease of about 15% compared to the beginning of the month; the calcium - carbide - based PVC operating rate was 85.24%, an increase of 5% compared to the beginning of the month; the overall domestic PVC operating rate was 80.92%, a decrease of about 1.2% compared to 82% at the beginning of the month [4]. - The downstream demand for PVC has limited support for prices. Although the demand has been recovering after the Spring Festival, the actual increment is lower than expected. The operating rates of downstream industries such as pipes and profiles are still at a low level in recent years, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid procurement [6]. - The high social inventory has suppressed the price, and the difficulty in selling at high prices in the spot market has forced the futures price to decline [6]. Outlook for the Future Market - In the short - term, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile until the high inventory is significantly reduced and the downstream operating rate substantially recovers [7]. - In the long - term, as the price continues to decline, the cost - side support will gradually appear and limit the downward space. Currently, the calcium carbide price is firm, and the raw material cost is still high [7]. - It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of geopolitical situations on global energy prices, the actual export situation of domestic PVC, and the equipment maintenance rhythm [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not yet peaking. Last week, the increase in production was relatively slow, with an increase of 30,000 tons in hot metal production and stable production of the five major steel products. The increase in the production of off - balance - sheet steel products was also not significant, and the production increment may have flowed more to steel billets. The apparent demand has increased, and the increase in apparent demand is greater than that in production, so the inventory continues to decline. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the environmental protection - related production cuts of steel mills in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is acceptable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. From the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, there is insufficient upward driving force, and the upward elasticity of steel prices mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut of BHP has made raw materials stronger, which supports steel prices [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undetermined, and the resumption of hot metal production is the focus of future iron ore trading. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on the shipment of some Australian ports. On the demand side, the hot metal production has increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and the situation of steel exports is acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East being offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the inventory aspect, the inventories of steel mills and ports have both decreased slightly. With the recent decline in the arrival volume and the high - level continuous port clearance under the resumption of production of steel mills, the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain unchanged. Looking forward to the future, under the influence of factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changeable market sentiment, the resumption of production of steel mills, and the undetermined BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 780 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first - round price increase on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for the coke price increase, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, the sharp increase in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses, and the coking operation starts to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, the steel price has rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined, and the coke futures had fully anticipated the coke price increase before, and now there is an expectation of a peak - to - decline. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the auction transactions of Shanxi spot have started to decline, and the Mongolian coal quotation has followed the futures down. After the price increase, the restocking demand has weakened, and downstream enterprises with low profits are more resistant to high - priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight decline recently. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory has started to show a change of active restocking by downstream enterprises. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined. It is necessary to focus on the macro - impact and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the ferrosilicon production decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the production area's operating rate also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the repair of manufacturers' profits, but Qinghai and Gansu still have serious losses. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period. The ferrosilicon export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards. Pay attention to the settlement electricity price changes in the production areas in March. The cost side of ferrosilicon has certain support. Looking forward to the future, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in a balanced state. Pay attention to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the main silicomanganese contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the silicomanganese supply continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks. The production pressure in the southern region is still relatively high, and the loss amplitude has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern production area is on the verge of profit and loss, but the manganese ore cost of manufacturers is mostly the ore at the previous low price, so the profit should be better than the calculation. Pay attention to the implementation of silicomanganese production cuts in the future. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may become marginally looser in the near future. With the increase in arrivals and the expected contraction in demand, the port inventory has started to increase. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on the comprehensive costs of shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may run at a high level. In general, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. There is an expectation of silicomanganese production cuts, which may weaken the demand for manganese ore. Pay attention to the supply change of silicomanganese in April. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800 [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 14 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar increased by 11 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The production of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.0%. The rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.7%, among which the electric - furnace production decreased by 1.5 tons to 32.7 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.3%, and the converter production decreased by 4.0 tons to 165.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 1.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 10.4%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, with a growth rate of 2.2%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, with a growth rate of 1.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Coking Fine, PB Fine, etc. decreased to varying degrees, and the 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5, with a decrease rate of 2.3%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.0 to 17.5, with a decrease rate of 10.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased to varying degrees, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, with a growth rate of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, with a decrease rate of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 18.4% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 6072.2 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 6817.7 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 52 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 3.0% and 3.0% respectively [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 0.0% and 1.5% respectively. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 66 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.1%. The production of raw coal decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.64%, and the production of clean coal decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6% [5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.2 tons to 90.1 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.4%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5 tons to 691.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, with a growth rate of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 216.1 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - The closing price of the fer

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including price spreads between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Details - **Price Spreads between Futures and Spot**: For example, the F period - spot spread is - 74.25, with a 4.00% change compared to the previous day and a 2.50% historical 1 - year quantile; the H period - spot spread is - 22.91, with a - 3.03 change and a 5.70% historical 1 - year quantile [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts, with values and changes for different varieties like IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios including CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures [2]. Details - **Basis**: For instance, the TS basis on March 31, 2026, is 1.1202, with a 0.0494 change and a 7.40% historical quantile; the TF basis is 0.0588, with a - 0.0352 change and a 29.50% historical quantile [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods of TS, TF, T, and TL are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals, along with investment suggestions [5]. Details - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2606, AG2606, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts are given, as well as foreign futures closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, spot platinum, spot palladium, and Shanghai Gold Exchange products are presented [5]. - **Basis**: Bases such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [5]. - **Price Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium are provided [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are reported [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and positions of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented [5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Suggestions include trying to go long on gold at the 4400 - 4500 US dollar range when gold ETF positions stop falling and rebound; expecting silver to stand above 70 US dollars and seize short - term upward opportunities; and considering the long - platinum - short - palladium ratio as platinum moves up in the 1850 - 2015 US dollar range and palladium consolidates above 1400 US dollars [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

Report Information - Report title: "Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report" [1] - Report date: April 1, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 31, 2026 [2] Key Points about Fund Flows and Positions Morgan Chase - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] Qiankun Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] UBS Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 4.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] CITIC Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 10.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4] Guotai Junan - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 20.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Asia - Pacific market is generally down, and the Q2 style leans towards fundamental verification. The market is affected by the situation of the US - Iran negotiation and the approaching earnings period [3]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran situation have a significant impact on the prices of various commodities, including precious metals, energy, and industrial metals. As the impact of the geopolitical situation is gradually digested, the market shows different trends [3]. - The supply - demand relationship of different commodities is also an important factor affecting prices. For example, some commodities are in short - term supply shortages, while others face oversupply problems [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Agricultural Products**: Sugarcane is expected to be strong; pork is expected to be weak; soybeans are expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - **Industrial Products**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly; rebar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific stock index futures market is affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: With the easing of the US - Iran war, precious metals are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips in the appropriate price range [3]. - **Steel Products** - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Rebar prices are supported by raw material prices, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Iron ore's short - term supply - demand pattern has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in a certain range [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is affected by geopolitical risks and auction results, and it is recommended to wait and see. Coke follows the trend of coking coal, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see. Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to production reduction expectations in the Middle East, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy long positions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to operate according to the range [3]. - **New Energy and Chemical Products** - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are facing oversupply problems, and their prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or operate in a short - term range [3]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be weak due to the cooling of supply concerns. Most chemical products are affected by geopolitical and oil price factors, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different situations [3]. - **Agricultural Products and Soft Commodities** - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal and pork prices are expected to be weak, while palm oil prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices have strong bottom support [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and cotton prices are recommended to hold long positions. Egg, apple, and jujube prices are expected to be weak [3]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the impact of the geopolitical situation on the market is gradually digested, if the gold ETF holdings stop falling and rebound, indicating improved confidence of allocation funds, one can try to go long on dips in the range of $4400 - $4500, and pay attention to the stage resistance of the 20 - day moving average [1] - In the short term, with the easing of the US - Iran war, silver is expected to stabilize above $70 along with gold. One can seize the opportunity for a band - up move with boosted market sentiment, and the upper resistance is at $85 [1] - Platinum's price is rising in the central range of $1850 - $2015, and palladium is oscillating above $1400. Since palladium has a relatively weaker fundamental, the long position on the platinum - palladium ratio can continue to be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.51% (5.22 yuan) from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.37% (419 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan/gram on March 31, down 0.88% (4.40 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan on March 31, up 1.15% (4.10 yuan) from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4699.60 on March 31, up 3.51% (159.20) from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 75.35 on March 31, up 7.36% (5.16) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 1962.30 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.67% (69.40) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1488.50 on March 31, up 5.31% (75.00) from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4669.13 on March 31, up 3.45% (155.61) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 75.11 on March 31, up 7.24% (5.07) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 1950.00 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.34% (63.00) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1448.00 on March 31, up 1.26% (18.00) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1015.68 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.67% (6.72 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18031 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.68% (471 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 495 yuan/gram on March 31, up 1.10% (5 yuan) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.42, up 1.50 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 had a change, and the 1 - year historical quantile was 60.60% [1] - Another basis was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold had a change [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 62.37 on March 31, down 3.59% (2.32) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 56.28 on March 31, down 1.81% (1.04) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32 on March 31, down 1.56% (0.02) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 31, down 2.01% (0.03) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30 on March 31, down 1.1% (0.05) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79 on March 31, down 0.8% (0.03) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00 on March 31, down 2.0% (0.04) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 09.88 on March 31, down 0.62% (0.62) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879 on March 31, down 0.41% (0.0285) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kilograms on March 31, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 368667 on March 31, down 1.54% (5760) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 31533901 on March 31, down 0.01% (2604) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 327820669 on March 31, up 0.07% (231248) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts was 16563243 on March 31, down 0.33% (55291) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts was 76429739 on March 31, up 0.53% (404881) from the previous value [1] - SPRD gold ETF holdings was 1047 on March 31, up 0.11% (1.15) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings was 15274 on March 31, down 0.09% (14.08) from the previous value [1]