1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, and futures fluctuate after a rally. The main contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 8,605 yuan/ton. The industry faces over - supply pressure, but cost provides support. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Suggest to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The market is oversupplied, and spot quotes continue to decline. Futures are weakly volatile with a slight rebound. There is still room for prices to fall. It is recommended to wait and see during the price - cut period [3]. Tin - Market risk preference is restored, and tin prices rebound. If the US - Iran conflict shows signs of ending, one can try to layout long positions [4]. Copper - Copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Short - term adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed. Pay attention to the US - Iran conflict and peak - season inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, but the medium - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are stable. The decline space is limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro guidance [9]. Nickel - The macro - expectation eases slightly but is highly uncertain. The raw material contradiction supports the price, and the inventory is differentiated. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 130,000 - 142,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - sentiment suppression eases, raw materials are tight with strong cost support. Steel mills increase production, and demand recovers. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 [13]. Alumina - The market inventory reduction slows down, and the oversupply pattern persists. Adopt a short - term short - selling strategy. Wait for a clear supply contraction signal or policy - based production capacity regulation [16]. Aluminum - Short - term prices will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news. The main contract is expected to run between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory inflection points and the impact of the Middle - East situation on supply [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - suppression eases, the fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force weakens. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 160,000 [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price, but demand improvement is slow. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to demand improvement and the impact of the Middle - East situation on primary aluminum prices [18]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on March 24. The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang decreased by 4.80%, 13.33%, and 3.87% respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.35%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract increased by 8.33% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and related product production all decreased. The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the national 开工率 decreased by 21.33% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.72%, Yunnan decreased by 0.90%, and social inventory increased by 0.18% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.73%, and the N - type particle silicon price was stable. The N - type material basis decreased by 13.37% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.83%. The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract decreased by 51.43% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, imports increased by 54.97%, and exports increased by 20.51%. Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.67% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.64%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.47% [3]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.66%, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 13.19% [4]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss decreased by 13.93%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 234.29% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: February tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and the average 开工率 of SMM refined tin decreased by 23.92% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased by 19.75%, and social inventory decreased by 17.82% [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.23%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 219.32% [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: February electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, imports decreased by 24.95%. The 开工率 of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: Global visible inventory started to decline this week. Domestic social inventory decreased by 14.54%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 5.15% [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.84%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 36.46 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had small changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: February refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, imports decreased by 81.26%, and exports increased by 91.58%. The 开工率 of related industries increased [9]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.47%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.06% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.23%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 4.58%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 4 dollars/ton [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowinning nickel increased by 11.34% [11]. - **New - energy Material Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and other prices remained stable [11]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 130 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.03%, and social inventory increased by 1.10% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel increased. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 38.32% [13]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore and other raw materials remained stable, and the price of 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 2.03% [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 44.07%, and Indonesian production decreased by 10.84%. Imports, exports, and net exports all changed significantly [13]. - **Inventory Change**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.61%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.64% [13]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.13%, and the premium increased. The price of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [16]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 8.5 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 53.8 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between AL 2604 - 2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: February alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. The 开工率 of related industries had different changes [16]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.83%, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.25% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.68%, and the basis decreased by 114.17%. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 2.17% [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 680 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: February lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57%. The 开工率 decreased by 14.29% [17]. - **Inventory Change**: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 4.76%, and downstream inventory decreased by 5.01% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the price of Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 decreased by 0.42%. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum decreased by 36.11% [18]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: February recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41.31%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99%. The 开工率 of related industries decreased [18]. - **Inventory Change**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 1.79%, and factory - area finished product inventory decreased by 8.11% [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Middle East situation is tense, with Israel and Iran making frequent statements, and the situation in the Middle East may escalate again, which has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets [3] - The A - share market is under pressure due to the decline in risk preference, and there is a significant correction [3] - The price trends of various commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market is volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are under pressure due to the decline in risk preference in the A - share market. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market is greatly affected by the news of the US - Iran conflict. The decline trend of precious metals is hard to end in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. If the US - Iran war eases, the silver price is expected to stop falling and rebound, otherwise, it may fall back. Platinum and palladium are recommended to maintain a bearish view [3] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel price center moves up, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The iron ore is in high - level shock. For coal and coke, it is recommended to go long at low positions [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the US - Iran situation. The aluminum price has limited downward space. For other non - ferrous metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective supply - demand and price trends [3] New Energy - The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and the futures are approaching the daily limit down. The lithium carbonate market fluctuates greatly, and short - term and medium - term operation suggestions are given [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price has a significant correction due to the easing signal. Most energy and chemical products are affected by the geopolitical situation and the oil price adjustment. Different operation suggestions are given for different products [3] Agricultural Products - The prices of agricultural products are also affected by geopolitical factors. Different agricultural products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as the hog market is under pressure, and the prices of some grains and oils are in shock [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market is in a cycle of oversupply, and the surplus is expected to expand, leading to continuous downward pressure on prices [3]. - Multiple companies are rumored to have production increase plans. In the context of pessimistic demand expectations, increasing the operating rate may reduce unit costs but also open up the downward space for spot prices [3]. - Whether the price will fall to the lowest cash cost (below 30 yuan/kg) as in June last year remains to be seen. The current spot average price is approaching the unit cost, and low - price products and futures prices have fallen below the unit cost and are moving towards the cash cost [3]. - The market sentiment tends to trade for market - based clearance, and the price is expected to fall towards the lowest cash cost, leaving further downward space [3]. - The industry chain is moving towards losses again. Attention should be paid to whether any enterprises will be forced out during the process of the price falling towards the lowest cash cost, as well as the impact of improved component quality on raw material requirements [3]. - In terms of trading strategies, the market is currently inactive and in a price - downward cycle, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Periodic and Spot Price Trends - This week, polysilicon spot quotes continued to decline significantly. The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 5.43% to 43.5 yuan/kg, while the N - type granular silicon stabilized at 44 yuan/kg. There is a price inversion between N - type re -投料 rod silicon and granular silicon [11]. - According to statistics from Antaike, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re -投料 this week is 42,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 43,200 yuan/ton, a 4.42% decrease from the previous week. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon is 43,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price remaining at 44,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Trading volume and activity have both declined compared to previous weeks. The market is quiet because some large orders in March were signed at the end of February and early March, and downstream enterprises are pessimistic about the future and cautious in purchasing [11]. - The futures market broke through the support level and fell. One reason is that the falling spot price under high - inventory conditions led to the decline of futures, and the other is that the production increase expectation under high - inventory and weak - demand conditions also caused the price to break through further. On Friday, the futures closed at 37,765 yuan/ton, a significant 10% drop [7]. 3.2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - The output in February decreased to between 77,000 - 85,000 tons. According to SMM, the output in February decreased by 23,800 tons to 77,000 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the domestic polysilicon output in February was about 84,400 tons, a significant 17.3% decrease from the previous month [25]. - There are 10 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production, and the industry's average operating rate has dropped to 35.5%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The weekly output of polysilicon remained flat at 19,000 tons [25]. - In March 2026, the output is expected to increase due to more production days and the resumption of production of some enterprises. The Silicon Industry Association predicts that the total output of polysilicon in March will be between 87,000 - 89,000 tons. Although the maintenance of leading enterprises restricts the supply, the small - scale resumption of previously reduced - production capacity offsets part of the overall supply contraction [25]. - Recently, multiple companies are rumored to have production increase plans, and it is expected that the output will further increase after April, putting downward pressure on prices [25]. 3.2.2 Demand - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continued to decline, reflecting both cost reduction and weak long - term demand [27]. - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 0.2GW to 11.78GW, and the inventory decreased by 0.7GW to 27.65GW [38]. - The output of battery cells in February decreased by about 10% to 37.09GW, slightly higher than expected, and the production plan for March is about 46.36GW [43]. - The output of components in January reached 35GW, in February it was 29.3GW, and the production plan for March has rebounded to 41.39GW [47]. - The domestic installed capacity in December was about 40.5GW. The installed capacity in the first quarter was still sluggish, but the export is expected to pick up in the first quarter [53]. 3.3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The falling polysilicon price has led to a rapid decline in profits. Although the price increase in the third quarter of last year repaired the profits, the downstream demand has been continuously weak, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in the first quarter of 2026. The recent price decline and demand drop have made the overall profit outlook still not optimistic [62]. - Daquan Energy's February investor interaction record released on March 4 shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the unit cash cost of polysilicon decreased to 33.95 yuan/kg, and the unit cost decreased to 43.46 yuan/kg. In 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 4.83 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 1.13 billion yuan, and the loss amplitude narrowed significantly year - on - year. The company's production and sales rate reached 103%, and the inventory was maintained at a reasonable level, with continuous optimization of asset operation efficiency [62]. - Referring to Daquan Energy, Tongwei and GCL have relatively more cost advantages, opening up the expectation space for the futures market [62]. 3.4. Import - Export - In January and February 2026, the imports of polysilicon were 1,047 tons and 1,222 tons respectively, and the exports were 1,838 tons and 2,215 tons respectively. It has been a net exporter since the beginning of the year [65]. - From January to February 2026, the export volume of silicon wafers increased, the import volume decreased, and the net export was 6,736 tons [73]. - From January to February 2026, the export volume of battery cells decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a 20% year - on - year increase in February. The exports of components decreased [77]. 3.5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - The weekly inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 344,000 tons. The warehouse receipts decreased by 880 lots to 9,810 lots, equivalent to 29,430 tons [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads, including F, H, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures varieties (TS, TF, T, TL). [2] 2.3 Precious Metals - The market for precious metals is in a downward trend. The end of the decline requires a缓和 of geopolitical conflicts, which is difficult to achieve. It is recommended to take a short - side operation for gold. For silver, if the US - Iran war eases, the price may stop falling and stabilize; otherwise, it may fall below $60. Platinum may fall to the $1750 - $1800 range, and palladium may drop to around $1300. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F futures - spot spread is - 80.62, H is - 18.06, IC is - 200.64, and IM is - 223.43. [1] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Different cross - period spreads for F, H, IC, and IM are presented, such as F's next - month - current - month spread is - 56.80, etc. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.6991, CSI 500/SSE 50 is 2.6908, etc. are provided. [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: TS basis is 0.0189, TF is 0.0599, T is 1.3076, and TL is 0.5330. [2] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: For example, TS's current - quarter - next - quarter spread is - 0.0060, etc. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: TS - TF is - 3.4610, TS - T is - 5.7310, etc. [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604 contract is 1039.22 yuan/gram, AG2606 contract is 17625 yuan/kilogram, etc. [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold主力 contract is $4492.00, COMEX silver主力 contract is $67.81, etc. [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is $4491.67, London silver is $67.90, etc. [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is 1.38, silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 is 155, etc. [3] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 66.24, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 58.96, etc. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.39%, 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.88%, etc. [3] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 106845, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory is 362495 kilograms, etc. [3]

Sector Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding sector investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been postponed to mid - May, making the future of soybean procurement uncertain. From January to February 2026, China imported 150 million tons of US soybeans, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, while imports from Brazil increased by 83%. The international crude oil price is high, which supports the price of soybean as a raw material for biodiesel, but a sharp increase is unlikely. Domestically, the inspection of Brazilian soybeans has extended the customs clearance time, but the supply of soybeans remains sufficient. The spot basis price of soybean oil is affected. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to fluctuate around 4,600 ringgit. After the end of the Eid al - Fitr, palm oil production will resume growth, which will suppress the market performance. Rapeseed oil futures have been consolidating at a high level. Oil mills have been actively purchasing Canadian rapeseed and selling forward basis positions. The basis price is expected to oscillate. Overall, the oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and will likely show a complex trend [1]. Cotton - USDA's weekly cotton contract signing has declined slightly, with Vietnam being the main buyer, and China has significantly increased its imports of US cotton. A 30 - million - ton sliding - scale tariff quota has been officially issued, and the price difference between domestic and international cotton has narrowed. The drought in the main US cotton - producing areas persists, and the cotton inspection progress has exceeded 100%, with an expected final inspection volume of around 3.05 million tons. US cotton is expected to fluctuate widely between 65 - 70 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the issuance of additional quotas has led to a rapid narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, but it remains at a relatively high level. If the international cotton market does not rise, Zhengzhou cotton will face pressure, but the strong demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises will provide support. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Sugar - Due to rainfall in the main sugar - producing areas, the soil moisture has improved, and the expected cane crushing volume in the 26/27 season in the central - southern region of Brazil has been raised to 620 - 630 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 25 million tons. However, due to sugar mills' preference for ethanol production, the estimated sugar production in Brazil has been lowered. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is coming to an end. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The final sugar production in India this season is expected to be lower. Internationally, there are many positive factors, and the raw sugar market is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term. In China, from January to February 2026, the total sugar imports were 520,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. The spot market sales are weak, but the price is stable above 5,400 yuan per ton. The futures market is strong due to the overall strength of commodities and potential policy expectations, but the weak production and sales performance in February and the significant year - on - year increase in industrial inventory will limit the upward space. In the short term, sugar futures are likely to remain at a high level and oscillate strongly [4]. Red Dates - The red dates market has entered the off - season. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, most of the arriving goods are sub - standard dates, and the supply of finished products is small. Sellers are eager to sell. The Guangdong Ruyifang market has weak trading, with low consumer demand and weak stocking willingness among traders. The inventory reduction is slow, and the registration of futures warehouse receipts has decreased year - on - year. Affected by macro - funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market has rebounded slightly in the low - valuation range, but the upward movement of futures prices is limited by the weak market reality. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [5]. Apples - With the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market's purchasing willingness has increased. The proportion of high - quality apples in the market is still low, the mainstream price is stable, and the price of high - quality apples in some areas has increased slightly. Recently, some buyers looking for high - quality apples have shifted from the western to the Shandong production areas, and the inquiry for high - quality apples in Qixia, Shandong has increased significantly, with a slight increase in transactions. The foreign trade orders are performing well. As seasonal fruits are out of season, the demand for apples is gradually released, and the national apple inventory is continuously decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week, and the decline rate has accelerated. In the short term, driven by demand and supported by low inventory, the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, due to the rising temperature and the need for cash before the spring plowing, farmers in the production areas are more willing to sell their grains. Coupled with continuous policy releases, the supply is slightly increasing, and the price is stable with a slight downward trend. The price at the northern ports has decreased slightly due to the increase in the collection volume. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is continuously increasing, and there is still a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises are suffering losses and have a general demand for high - priced corn, and some areas are using wheat as a substitute. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons, which supplements the supply to some extent. In the short term, the increase in corn supply and the substitution of wheat will put pressure on the price, but the rigid demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises will limit the decline. Overall, the price will remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to future policy releases [9]. Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - The US soybean market is worried about export prospects, and the potential biodiesel policy has been postponed to April, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. However, the oil price provides support, limiting the decline of US soybeans. In the domestic market, there are concerns about the continuity of shutdowns and supplies, so the提货 enthusiasm is high, and oil mills are eager to maintain prices. The inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the soybean meal price. Currently, the short - term arrival of goods is tight, supporting the spot price. Although US soybeans have declined, there is a possibility that the Brazilian premium will rebound. The soybean meal market is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March. There is a negative expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [12]. Pigs - Recently, the pig slaughter volume has been large, and group farms have increased their sales. The average slaughter weight has remained high, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, and the price in some weight segments has been inverted, which is not conducive to the entry of secondary fattening. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement is slowly recovering, and although the slaughter volume has increased, the boost is limited. The market is currently focusing on secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, the capital is tight, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The overall motivation for slaughterhouses to enter the market is limited, and most of the inventory increase is passive. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the cost is rising, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is also not conducive to holding pigs for fattening. It is expected that both futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, and there is a possibility that the near - month contracts will fall below 10,000 [14]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled hens has been high recently and has shown signs of decline. Farmers' willingness to cull has increased, and the number of culled hens has increased slightly. The number of newly - laying hens has increased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the market supply is still relatively loose, but due to the light inventory pressure in each link, the shipping pressure on the supply side next week is expected to be relatively small. On the demand side, the current market demand is still weak. The terminal mainly consumes inventory, and the procurement rhythm is slow. Food enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and have not formed a continuous increase in demand. However, with the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking next week, the festival effect is expected to gradually appear. The increase in short - distance travel may drive the consumption in the catering channel to increase, and supermarkets are expected to increase promotional efforts, which will stimulate the purchasing intention of households. Therefore, the market demand is expected to improve temporarily under the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. Overall, with the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, there is a possibility of a phased improvement, but considering the continuous supply pressure and the adverse impact of rising temperatures on storage, the egg price is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The basis of Y2605 was 322 yuan/ton, up 9.52%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 300. The number of warehouse receipts was 24,892, down 1.78%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,748 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was - 798 yuan/ton, up 4.77%. The price difference between 2605 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,090 yuan/ton, up 7.63%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in May was 10,171.5 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2602 was 1,248 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,308 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The futures price of OIROS was 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The basis of O1605 was 432 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 400. The number of warehouse receipts was 805, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2 million tons. The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants in China was 621,000 tons, down 24.36% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10.53%. The trading volume of the main contract was 592,451, down 4.41%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,400, down 0.30%; the number of effective forecasts was 328, up 1.55% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 16,480 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The CC Index of 3128B was 16,649 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The FC Index of M: 1% was 13,118 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 5.88%; the price difference between 3128B and the 09 contract was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 7.13%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% was 3,531 yuan/ton, up 2.79% [2]. - **Industry Conditions**: The yarn inventory was 0, down 100%. The industrial inventory was 1.024 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 19.0%. The bonded area inventory was 471,000 tons, up 9.8%. The inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, down 1.2%. The inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s was - 2,213.90 yuan/ton, up 5.6%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%. The export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,439 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,469 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, down 30.43%. The trading volume of the main contract was 354,040, down 4.86%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 0 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,315 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 21 yuan/ton, down 51.16%; the basis in Kunming was - 124 yuan/ton, down 21.57%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,292 yuan/ton, up 2.78%; the import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5,446 yuan/ton, up 2.85%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning price was - 1,168 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning price was - 14 yuan/ton, up 91.52% [4]. - **Industry Conditions**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%. The sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, up 17.03%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi was 3.659 million tons, up 11.43%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, up 48.72% [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9,030 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9,235 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The price difference between 5 - 7 contracts was - 190 yuan/ton, up 2.56%; the price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The trading volume was 170,990, down 1.12%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,112, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 174, unchanged; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,286, unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads, including F, H, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads for different treasury bond futures varieties like TS, TF, T, and TL. [2] 2.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market is in a downward trend. The market's stop - falling depends on the easing of geopolitical conflicts, which is difficult to achieve. It is recommended to take a short - side operation for gold. For silver, if the US - Iran war eases, the price may stop falling and stabilize; otherwise, it may fall below $60. Platinum may seek support in the $1750 - $1800 range, and palladium may fall to around $1300. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F futures - spot spread is - 80.62, H is - 18.06, IC is - 200.64, and IM is - 223.43. Their historical 1 - year quantiles are 1.60%, 9.80%, 0.10%, and 5.00% respectively. [1] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: There are various cross - period spreads for different contracts (e.g., next - month - current - month, far - month - current - month, etc.) with different values and historical quantiles. For example, for F cross - period spreads, next - month - current - month is - 56.80 with a 0.40% historical 1 - year quantile. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.6991, CSI 500/SSE 50 is 2.6908, etc., along with their changes and historical quantiles are provided. [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: TS basis is 0.0189, TF is 0.0599, T is 0.0951, and TL is 0.5330, with corresponding historical percentiles. [2] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Different cross - period spreads for each variety (e.g., current - quarter - next - quarter, current - quarter - far - quarter) are presented with their values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, for TS cross - period spreads, current - quarter - next - quarter is - 0.0060 with a 24.90% historical percentile. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF is - 3.4610, TS - T is - 5.7310, etc., along with their changes and historical percentiles are given. [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604 contract closed at 1039.22 yuan/g (down 2.15% from the previous day), AG2606 at 17625 yuan/kg (down 2.00%), PT2606 at 509.75 yuan/g (up 0.55%), and PD2606 at 368.85 yuan/g (down 0.70%). [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at $4492.00/oz (down 3.44%), COMEX silver at $67.81/oz (down 6.87%), NYMEX platinum at $1920.10/oz (down 2.48%), and NYMEX palladium at $1414.50/oz (down 3.51%). [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is $4491.67/oz (down 3.42%), London silver is $67.90/oz (down 6.71%), etc. [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is 1.38 (up 0.99), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 155 (up 149), etc., with historical 1 - year quantiles. [3] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 66.24 (up 3.68%), SHFE gold/silver is 58.96 (down 0.15%), etc. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.39% (up 3.3%), 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.88% (up 2.4%), 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 2.01% (up 6.9%), US dollar index is 99.51 (up 0.33%), and on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.9062 (up 0.34%). [3] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai gold inventory is 106845 (unchanged), Shanghai silver inventory is 362495 kg (down 0.65%), etc. [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Funds Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report [1] - Date: March 23, 2026 [1] - Data Date: March 20, 2026 [2] Core Content Funds Inflow and Outflow - The vertical axis percentage represents net positions divided by total positions (unilateral) and daily position changes divided by total positions (unilateral) [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - **Morgan Chase**: Displays net positions and daily position changes for various products such as Yuan Shen 800 Futures, Standard Oil, etc [2] - **Qiankun Futures**: Shows net positions and daily position changes for products like peanuts, iron ore, etc [2] - **UBS Futures**: Presents net positions and daily position changes for products including stainless steel, iron ore, etc [2] - **CITIC Futures**: Displays position changes for products such as annual treasury bond futures [3] - **Guotai Junan**: Shows position changes for certain products [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of precious metals is hard to end. It is recommended to take a short - position operation for gold unilaterally. The market will stop falling only when the geopolitical conflicts ease, but the conditions for this to happen are still harsh under the game of multiple interests. Capital outflows are causing the decline of precious metals [2]. - If the US - Iran war eases in the short - term, the silver price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. However, if the situation escalates again, the price may fall back below $60. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies around $75 - $80 and sell out - of - the - money call options of Shanghai silver above 18,000 yuan [2]. - Platinum may fall back to the $1750 - $1800 range to seek support, and palladium may fall back to around $1300. A bearish view is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - **AU2604 contract**: Closed at 1039.22 yuan/gram, down 22.78 yuan or 2.15% from the previous day [2]. - **AG2606 contract**: Closed at 17,625 yuan/ten grams, down 359 yuan or 2.00% [2]. - **PT2606 contract**: Closed at 509.75 yuan/gram, up 2.80 yuan or 0.55% [2]. - **PD2606 contract**: Closed at 368.85 yuan/gram, down 2.60 yuan or 0.70% [2]. 3.2 Overseas Futures Closing Prices - **COMEX gold主力合约**: Closed at $4492.00, down $159.90 or 3.44% [2]. - **COMEX silver主力合约**: Closed at $67.81, down $5.00 or 6.87% [2]. - **NYMEX platinum主力合约**: Closed at $1920.10 per ounce, down $48.80 or 2.48% [2]. - **NYMEX palladium主力合约**: Closed at $1414.50, down $51.50 or 3.51% [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **London gold**: The spot price was $4491.67, down $158.83 or 3.42% [2]. - **London silver**: The spot price was $67.90, down $4.88 or 6.71% [2]. - **Spot platinum**: The price was $1978.00 per ounce, up $43.00 or 2.22% [2]. - **Spot palladium**: The price was $1434.00, down $4.00 or 0.28% [2]. - **Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D**: Closed at 1040.60 yuan/gram, down 21.79 yuan or 2.05% [2]. - **Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D**: Closed at 17,780 yuan/ten grams, down 210 yuan or 1.17% [2]. - **Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995**: Closed at 209 yuan/gram, down 1 yuan or 0.28% [2]. 3.4 Basis - **Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力**: The basis was 1.38, up 0.99, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [2]. - **Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力**: The basis was 155, up 149, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [2]. - **London gold - COMEX gold**: The basis was - 9.13, up 4.16, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 75.60% [2]. - **London silver - COMEX silver**: The basis was - 0.37, down 0.15, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 21.70% [2]. 3.5 Price Ratios - **COMEX gold/silver**: The price ratio was 66.24, up 2.35 or 3.68% [2]. - **SHFE gold/silver**: The price ratio was 58.96, down 0.09 or 0.15% [2]. - **NYMEX platinum/palladium**: The price ratio was 1.36, up 0.01 or 1.07% [2]. - **GIE platinum/palladium**: The price ratio was 1.38, up 0.02 or 1.26% [2]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **10 - year US Treasury yield**: It was 4.39%, up 0.14 percentage points or 3.3% [2]. - **2 - year US Treasury yield**: It was 3.88%, up 0.09 percentage points or 2.4% [2]. - **10 - year TIPS Treasury yield**: It was 2.01%, up 0.13 percentage points or 6.9% [2]. - **US dollar index**: It was 99.51, up 0.33 or 0.33% [2]. - **Offshore RMB exchange rate**: It was 6.9062, up 0.0237 or 0.34% [2]. 3.7 Inventories and Positions - **SHFE gold inventory**: It remained at 106,845 kilograms, with a change of 0% [2]. - **SHFE silver inventory**: It was 362,495, down 2370 or 0.65% [2]. - **COMEX gold inventory**: It remained at 32,054,275, with a change of 0% [2]. - **COMEX silver inventory**: It was 33,269,525, down 1,989,464 or 0.59% [2]. - **COMEX gold registered contracts**: It was 16,518,712 ounces, down 124,179 or 0.75% [2]. - **COMEX silver registered contracts**: It was 79,199,548, down 212,173 or 0.27% [2]. - **SPRD gold ETF position**: It was 1057, down 5.14 or 0.48% [2]. - **SLV silver ETF position**: It was 15,249, up 61.97 or 0.41% [2].