Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The second round of China-US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the A-share market declined and adjusted after the Politburo meeting, with consumption rising against the trend. There was a short - term expectation gap in the market [2] - The Politburo meeting led to a short - term release of negative factors, causing the bond futures to rise. The 7 - month PMI index should be monitored [2] - US macro - policies and other negative factors may put pressure on the gold price, and it can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. The silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan) [2] - The market expectation of the container shipping index (European line) has cooled, leading to a price decline [2] - The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and the coking plants have the expectation of further price increases [2] - The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the aluminum market [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply, and the oil price is in a strong - side shock [2] - The urea market is restricted by export difficulties and high inventory, and the PX market is affected by the downstream of the industrial chain [2] - The PTA market has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials, and the short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand expectation [2] - The bottle - chip market is following the cost fluctuation, and the ethylene glycol market's supply - demand situation has turned loose [2] - The soybean meal market is suppressed by the expected high yield of US soybeans, and the pig market's previous policy benefits have been digested [2] - The corn market is in a state of long - short entanglement, and the palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - The sugar market has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and the cotton market has a tight old - crop inventory and a weak downstream market [2] - The egg market is seasonally strong in the short - term but bearish in the long - term, and the apple market is trading lightly [2] - The red - date market has a stable and firm spot price but is bearish in the long - term, and the soda - ash market has repeated price fluctuations [2] - The glass market has a weakening spot sales and repeated price fluctuations, and the rubber market has a high - level shock [2] - The industrial silicon market's futures price fluctuates downward with the market, and the polysilicon market has multiple contracts reaching the daily limit [2] - The lithium carbonate market has a wide - range shock due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined and adjusted. It is recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures, replace it with a small amount of short positions in the far - month contract 6300 strike price MO put options, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish attitude [2] - **Treasury Bond**: After the Politburo meeting, short - term negative factors were released, and the bond futures rose. It is recommended to try to go long in the short - term and pay attention to the 7 - month PMI index [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is under pressure and can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. Silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan), and if it breaks, it may fall to $36 (8700 yuan) [2] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore follows the steel price. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The exchange's position - limit intervention has caused large fluctuations in futures. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low levels. The mainstream coking plants have the fifth - round price increase, and it is recommended to go long on coke at low levels [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation. The reference price range for the main contract is 77000 - 79000, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The aluminum price has a narrow - range shock, and the reference price ranges for the main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, and zinc are given. The tin price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way, with the resistance levels of WTI, Brent, and SC given [2] - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventory restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way within the range of 1700 - 1800 [2] - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is tight, but the downstream of the industrial chain affects the trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2] - **PTA**: It has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to be bearish above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the processing margin at a low level [2] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100 [2] - **Bottle - chip**: It maintains production cuts, and the processing margin's upward space depends on demand. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Multiple domestic and foreign plants have restarted, and the supply - demand situation has turned loose. It is recommended to wait and see on the EG09 single - side and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various other chemicals such as caustic soda, PVC, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The soybean meal market is affected by the expected high yield of US soybeans. The pig market is bearish. The corn market is in a long - short entanglement. The palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - **Others**: For other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For special commodities such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] - **New Energy Commodities**: For new - energy commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]

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Report Summary Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 6028, futures price is 6008, basis is 20, basis rate is 0.33%, and historical quantile is 35.20% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6116, basis is - 46, basis rate is - 0.75%, and historical quantile is 19.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3315, basis is 125, basis rate is 3.77%, and historical quantile is 57.30% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3500, futures price is 3483, basis is 17, basis rate is 0.49%, and historical quantile is 24.30% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 823, futures price is 789, basis is 34, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 30.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1570, futures price is 1677, basis is - 106, basis rate is - 6.34%, and historical quantile is 10.56% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1155, futures price is 1117, basis is 38, basis rate is 3.40%, and historical quantile is 36.60% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 79285, futures price is 78930, basis is 355, basis rate is 0.45%, and historical quantile is 77.50% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20670, futures price is 20625, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, and historical quantile is 61.66% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3248, futures price is 3326, basis is - 78, basis rate is - 2.33%, and historical quantile is 20.26% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22610, futures price is 22670, basis is - 60, basis rate is - 0.26%, and historical quantile is 37.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 268100, futures price is 267870, basis is 230, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 54.37% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price is 122350, futures price is 121720, basis is 630, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 81.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price is 13120, futures price is 12920, basis is 200, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 44.42% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 72950, futures price is 70600, basis is 2350, basis rate is 3.33%, and historical quantile is 79.29% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 10000, futures price is 9285, basis is 715, basis rate is 7.70%, and historical quantile is 49.37% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 769.5, futures price is 773.8, basis is - 4.3, basis rate is - 0.56%, and historical quantile is 8.90% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9166.0, futures price is 9192.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, and historical quantile is 32.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2880, futures price is 3010.0, basis is - 130.0, basis rate is - 4.32%, and historical quantile is 15.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8330, futures price is 8240.0, basis is 90.0, basis rate is 1.09%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 9010, futures price is 8982.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.31%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2590, futures price is 2735.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 5.30%, and historical quantile is 7.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: Spot price is 9696, futures price is 9621.0, basis is 69.0, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 32.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2312.0, basis is 38.0, basis rate is 1.64%, and historical quantile is 65.70% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2800, futures price is 2683.0, basis is 117.0, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 58.50% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 13930, futures price is 14075.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 1.03%, and historical quantile is 40.20% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3570.0, basis is - 530.0, basis rate is 14.85%, and historical quantile is 6.30% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15343, futures price is 13755.0, basis is 1588.0, basis rate is 11.54%, and historical quantile is 94.90% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5804.0, basis is 316.0, basis rate is 5.44%, and historical quantile is 59.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7915.0, basis is 685.0, basis rate is 8.65%, and historical quantile is 53.40% [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10805.0, basis is - 2505.0, basis rate is - 23.18%, and historical quantile is 5.20% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7122.7, futures price is 6984.0, basis is 138.7, basis rate is 1.99%, and historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4850.0, futures price is 4856.0, basis is - 6.0, basis rate is - 0.12%, and historical quantile is 49.20% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4515.0, futures price is 4450.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.46%, and historical quantile is 83.40% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price is 6615.0, futures price is 6500.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 1.77%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price is 7415.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.38%, and historical quantile is 32.80% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2405.0, futures price is 2419.0, basis is - 14.0, basis rate is - 0.58%, and historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1770.0, futures price is 1742.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 1.61%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7350.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is - 0.50%, and historical quantile is 11.10% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7160.0, futures price is 7145.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.21%, and historical quantile is 27.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5060.0, futures price is 5159.0, basis is - 99.0, basis rate is - 1.92%, and historical quantile is 54.60% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2613.0, basis is - 19.3, basis rate is - 0.74%, and historical quantile is 46.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 4052.0, basis is 396.0, basis rate is 9.77%, and historical quantile is 56.70% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3785.0, futures price is 3650.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 3.70%, and historical quantile is 76.00% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: Spot price is 12100.0, futures price is 11775.0, basis is 325.0, basis rate is 2.76%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1176.0, futures price is 1191.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 1.28%, and historical quantile is 60.71% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1301.0, futures price is 1311.0, basis is - 10.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, and historical quantile is 26.89% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 15000.0, futures price is 14945.0, basis is 55.0, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 97.91% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4151.2, futures price is 4136.4, basis is - 14.8, basis rate is - 0.36%, and historical quantile is 28.70% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2819.4, futures price is 2820.0, basis is 0.6, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6314.7, futures price is 6215.4, basis is - 99.3, basis rate is - 1.60%, and historical quantile is 2.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6718.5, futures price is 6604.2, basis is - 114.3, basis rate is - 1.73%, and historical quantile is 11.00% [1]. - **Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 100.26, futures price is 102.34, basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, and historical quantile is 27.60% [1]. - **5 - year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 100.62, futures price is 105.64, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 31.80% [1]. - **10 - year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 106.91, futures price is 108.31, basis is 0.16, basis rate is 0.15%, and historical quantile is 35.50% [1]. - **30 - year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 134.07, futures price is 118.44, basis is 0.48, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月31日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10000 | 0086 | 200 | 2.04% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 715 | 450 | 265 | 58.89% | | | 华乐SI4210工业硅 | 10250 | 10150 | 100 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 165 | 0 | 165 | #DIV/0i | | | 新疆99年 | 0000 | 9100 | 200 | 2.20% | | | 基差(新疆) | 875 | 550 | 265 | 48.18% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2508-2509 | -5 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are likely to gradually rise, with the domestic palm oil following the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The key level for the domestic palm oil market is 9,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, international oil prices enhance its attractiveness in biodiesel, but CBOT soybeans may drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil prices are expected to rise after August [1]. 2. Meal - US soybeans remain weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. However, the supply after October is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract has strong upward pressure. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended [5]. 4. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is relatively stable, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium to long term, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and relatively loose in the fourth quarter [8]. 5. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but a bearish view is maintained overall. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is expected to be marginally loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 6. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. 7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. Some areas may see a decline in egg prices next week, but the spot price still has some upward space [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 30, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,420 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8,240 yuan, up 0.17%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 35.07% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan on July 30, up 0.78%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis difference increased by 116.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 30, up 0.94%. The futures price of O1509 was 9,621 yuan, up 1.36% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,890 yuan on July 30, up 1.40%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,010 yuan, up 0.91%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 36.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,620 yuan on July 30, up 3.56%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,735 yuan, up 2.82% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,153 yuan, up 0.22% [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the main contract decreased by 500.00%. The price of the 2511 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the 2509 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 13,880 yuan, down 200.0 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.61%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,312 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.43%. The basis difference decreased by 20.83%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8.05% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,683 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.64%. The basis difference decreased by 121.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 24.29% [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.13%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,804 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The ICE raw sugar price decreased by 0.60% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning remained at 6,050 yuan. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.87%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.89% [12]. 6. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,755 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.22%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The ICE cotton price decreased by 0.24% [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,343 yuan, down 0.57%. The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% [14]. 7. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,570 yuan/500KG on July 30, down 0.17%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,271 yuan/500KG, down 2.33% [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price remained at 3.20 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 6.64%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.53% [16][18]

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所达品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强，求实奉献，客户至上，合作共赢 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月31日 | | | 問敏波 | 7 0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 县差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | 101 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3330 | 3 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见 解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的3等。在任何指况下，报告内容仅供参考。报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或时价，投 资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告官否发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士、版权归广发明货所有，未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对本报告进行任何远 的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"发明货"、 | | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月31日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10000 | 0086 | 200 | 2.04% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 715 | 450 | 265 | 58.89% | | | 华乐SI421 ...