| 湘脂 | | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王澄辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8400 | 8400 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8128 | 8168 | -40 | -0.49% | | 星差 | | Y2601 | 272 | 232 | 40 | 17.24% | | 现货基差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | - | | 它車 | | | 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8700 | 8750 | =50 | -0.57% | | ...

钢材产业期现日报 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3230 | 3230 | O | 124 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 84 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3340 | -20 | 214 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3166 | 3170 | -4 | ୧4 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3189 | 3199 | -10 | 41 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3106 | 3106 | O | 124 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3330 | 3330 | O | 22 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | -58 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3340 | -20 | -22 | | | 热卷05合约 | 3318 | 3327 | -g | 22 | | ...

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]

2025年11月3日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 聚酯产业链日报 | 投资资询业务资格: 亚监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年11月3日 | Z0003135 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 品种 | 10月30日 | 車位 | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 10月31日 | 涨跌 | 旅鉄幅 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | 电位 | | | | | | | | | | 布伦特原油(12月) | 65.07 | 65.00 | 0.1% | POY150/48价格 | 6415 | 6415 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.0% | 美元/桶 | WTI原油(12月) | 60.98 | 60.57 | 0.41 | 0.7% | F ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓保持稳定 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓近 3000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -390.0 -2,898.0 -2,520.0 -3,849.0 397.0 -2,436.0 -5,746.0 -6,696.0 -8,000 -7,000 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 IF IH IC ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Supply-wise, rain in the producing areas continued until the end of the month, causing raw material prices to rise, which provided short-term support for rubber prices. In the long run, there was still an expectation of increased supply. Demand-wise, semi-steel tire companies maintained stable production, while some all-steel tire companies had rising inventories. Overnight, the Fed's hawkish stance on the December interest rate cut pressured rubber prices in the short term. If raw material supply increased smoothly, rubber prices might decline further; otherwise, they were expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of the whole process was -600 yuan/ton, up 31.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. The non-standard price difference was -450 yuan/ton, up 5.26%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.19%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market was 55.50 Thai baht/kg, up 0.91%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 9 - 1 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 3.45% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was -90 yuan/ton, down 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread was -60 yuan/ton, up 7.69% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production was 458,800 tons, down 0.43% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, down 4.30%. India's production was 500,000 tons, up 11.11%. China's production data was not provided. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all-steel tires was 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 102.954 million pieces, up 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 5.63 million pieces, down 10.65%. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, up 14.41%. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 740,000 tons, up 12.12%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,327 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was -572 yuan/ton, down 35.22%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 16,414 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 2,186 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 432,229 tons, down 1.20% from the previous day. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 42,640 tons, up 6.28%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 4.94%, down 1.50 percentage points. The warehousing rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 11.61%, up 1.99 percentage points. The出库 rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 12.69%, up 3.11 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The log futures market was under pressure due to a significant increase in supply at the port, insufficient downstream orders, and falling prices at surrounding ports. However, the relatively low futures price and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downside space. Overall, the log futures market was expected to remain weakly volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 30, the prices of log futures contracts LG2511, LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 763.5, 786, 802, and 818.5 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with changes of -1.17%, -0.13%, -0.31%, and -0.12% from the previous day. The 11 - 01 spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan from the previous day. The 11 - 03 spread was -38.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - contract basis was -3.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 9 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - contract basis was -26 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Rizhao Port were 710, 760, and 880 yuan/cubic meter respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Taicang Port were 710, 770, and 820 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with the small and medium radiata pine prices down 1.39% and 1.28% respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 125 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On October 30, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.100, up 0.003 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 802.74 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.30 yuan from the previous day [3]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.766 million cubic meters, up 6.00% from August. The number of departing ships was 46, up 4.55% from August [3]. - **Inventory: Main Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.84 million cubic meters, down 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 1.865 million cubic meters, up 1.03%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 786,900 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. - **Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of October 24, the average daily outbound volume in China was 64,400 cubic meters, up 2% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 cubic meters, up 4%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,300 cubic meters, down 4% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View For soda ash, the macro - level leaders' meeting had a negative impact on the commodity market, and the previous rebound ended abruptly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. The market was still under pressure, and investors were advised to wait for a rebound to short. For glass, the macro - level situation also had a negative impact. The spot sales improved recently, driving the futures market to stabilize and rebound. However, the deep - processing orders were still weak, and the industry needed to clear excess capacity in the long run. Investors were advised to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities by monitoring the spot market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China were 1,130, 1,250, 1,120, and 1,210 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,243 and 1,327 yuan/ton respectively, down 2.81% and 2.21% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -113 yuan/ton, up 24.16% from the previous day [4]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China were 1,300, 1,250, 1,250, and 950 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,324 and 1,382 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.71% and 1.34% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -24 yuan/ton, up 48.94% from the previous day [4]. - **Supply**: On October 31, the soda ash operating rate was 86.89%, down 1.72 percentage points from October 24. The weekly soda ash production was 757,600 tons, down 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 88,540 tons, down 0.84%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.50 yuan, down 2.50% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the glass factory warehouse inventory was 65.79 million weight boxes, up 4.72% from October 24. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory was 170,200 tons, up 2.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 676,900 tons, down 3.18%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories was 20.4 days, unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: In the current period, the new construction area was -0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points from the previous period. The construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points. The completion area was -0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points. The sales area was -6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose first and then fell back 15 yuan/ton, closing at 9,155 yuan/ton. The increase in weekly supply and the decrease in demand might lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. The opening of the arbitrage window in East China might bring hedging opportunities. The rise in coking coal prices might drive up the futures price of industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On October 30, the price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) was 295 yuan/ton, up 63.89%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis (based on SI4210) was -255 yuan/ton, up 20.31%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. The basis (in Xinjiang) was 385 yuan/ton, up 19.70% [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 2511 - 2512 spread was -385 yuan/ton, down 2.60% from the previous day. The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 200.00%. The 2601 - 2602 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 66.67%. The 2602 - 2603 spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 128.57%. The 2603 - 2604 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 133.33% [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production was 420,800 tons, up 9.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 203,200 tons, up 19.78%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 2.41%. Sichuan's production was 52,900 tons, down 1.49%. The national operating rate was 61.94%, up 10.86 percentage points. Xinjiang's operating rate was 74.00%, up 22.09 percentage points. Yunnan's operating rate was 41.71%, down 11.99 percentage points. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.94%, up 1.47 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC was 210,200 tons, down 5.78%. The production of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, down 1.29%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,000 tons, up 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, down 8.36% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang was 108,100 tons, down 0.28% from the previous day. The factory warehouse inventory in Yunnan was 34,600 tons, up 1.47%. The factory warehouse inventory in Sichuan was 25,200 tons, unchanged. The social inventory was 558,000 tons, down 0.18%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 237,100 tons, up 0.15%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory was 321,000 tons, down 0.42% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton to 52,300 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated and fell 40 yuan/ton, closing at 54,950 yuan/ton. With the shutdown of production capacity in Southwest China, the production in November was expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. The weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased by 3 - 4%. Although the silicon wafer production schedule increased, the downstream procurement decreased, leading to an increase in inventory. Currently, polysilicon prices were mainly in high - level consolidation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there would be an increase in downstream orders. Since the futures price was higher than the spot average price, further significant price increases would depend on the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises. Also, the implementation of follow - up measures or policies should be monitored [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52,300 yuan/kg, down 0.10

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Supply is at a high level, with weak demand support in the short - term due to shrinking industry profits in downstream alumina. However, there may be demand support in the medium - to long - term as the procurement cycle approaches and alumina has more planned production in Q1 next year [1]. - PVC: Supply returns to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resume production. Domestic downstream demand remains weak, and cost provides bottom - line support. The market is expected to be lackluster during the peak season [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is generally stable, and demand support has strengthened. It is in a situation of high short - term supply and demand but with a weak overall outlook. Cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted [2]. - PTA: Spot basis is weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure due to factors such as the resumption of some device loads and the decline in oil prices [2]. - MEG: Port inventory decreases, but the upward driving force weakens. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly, but the overall supply - demand drive is limited. The price rebound is expected to face pressure, but it has relatively stronger support at low inventory levels [2]. - Bottle - chips: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, it mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Domestic supply is loose, and demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand expectation is still loose, and price drive is limited. It follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [5]. - Styrene: Under inventory and profit pressure, supply pressure still exists, and demand support is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The inland market has price inversion problems. The MTO load decreases, and demand support is insufficient. The price is expected to decline in the short - term, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas - limiting expectations [8]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply recovery slows down due to more unplanned maintenance. PE: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has warmed up, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Some PVC spot and futures prices changed slightly, and caustic soda prices were mostly stable [1]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry and some regional开工 rates increased slightly, while PVC total开工 rate decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Caustic soda downstream开工 rates were mostly stable, and PVC downstream制品开工 rates increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Both caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased to some extent [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream prices**: PX, ethylene, and other prices changed slightly, and oil prices increased slightly [2]. - **Downstream product prices and cash flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as FDY, bottle - chips, and short - fibers changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **开工 rates**: The综合开工 rate of polyester was stable, and the开工 rates of some segments such as PTA and MEG changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream prices and spreads**: Prices of crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and spreads also changed [5]. - **Benzene - related prices and spreads**: Benzene and styrene prices decreased, and spreads changed [5]. - **Downstream cash flows**: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene improved [5]. - **Inventory**: Both pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [5]. - **开工 rates**:开工 rates of some segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **开工 rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工 rates decreased slightly, and some downstream开工 rates increased while others decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories decreased [10]. - **开工 rates**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream加权开工率 increased. PP装置开工率 decreased, and some downstream开工 rates increased [10].

l 期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月31日 Z0015979 周敏波 | 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月31日 星期五 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 88065 | 87765 | +300.00 | 0.34% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -55 | -60 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 88775 | 87850 | +265.00 | 0.30% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | 10 | -10.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 87955 | 87660 | +295.00 | 0.34% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -165 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].

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