Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is firm, with some specifications in Jiangsu region experiencing price increases due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, the log futures have declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short - term, the price is expected to have certain support. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the range of 750 - 800 [3] Group 4: Price and Basis Futures Prices - On January 22, the price of Log 2601 was 772.5, down 2.5 (-0.32%) from January 21; Log 2603 was 768.5, up 4.5 (0.59%); Log 2605 was 786.0, up 4.5 (0.58%); Log 2607 was 799.5, up 4.5 (0.57%) [2] Spot Prices - The price of Rizhao Port 3.9A small radiata pine remained at 680.0 on January 22 and 21; 3.9A medium radiata pine at 740; 3.9A large radiata pine at 850. Taicang Port 4A small radiata pine was 700 on January 22, up 10 (1.45%) from January 21; 4A medium radiata pine was 770, up 10 (1.32%); 4A large radiata pine remained at 800. Rizhao Port spruce 11.8 was 1150 on January 22, down 10 (-0.86%) from January 21 [2] Basis - The basis of the main contract on January 22 was -28.5, down 4.5 from January 21 [2] Outer - market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine remained at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter on January 23 and January 16; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 124 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 23 was 6.965, up 0.01 from January 22. The import theoretical cost (calculated at 15% over - size) was 754.54 yuan on January 23, up 0.71 from January 22 [2] Group 5: Supply Monthly Supply - As of December 31, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 (7.82%) from November 30. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 (12.24%) from 49.0 [2] Forecasted Shipments - From January 19 - January 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week (0% week - on - week increase), and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, down 19,000 cubic meters (5% week - on - week decrease) [3] Group 6: Inventory and Demand Inventory - As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, down 120,000 cubic meters from last week (-4.46%) [2][3] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log outbound volume was 61,600 cubic meters, up 4,100 cubic meters from last week (7%) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the world will be in a macro - background of deepening "de - globalization" and the resonance of loose fiscal policies of major economies. Supply - chain vulnerability and demand expansion will lead to a tightening of resource supply - demand relations, and intensify strategic competition for key minerals and energy [1]. - China's economy will be based on the principle of "internal stability and external control" in 2026. Exports will remain a mainstay, investment will play a supporting role, and consumption will focus on equipment updates and service - scenario innovation. The de - dollarization trend and the weakening of the US dollar credit will bring opportunities for international capital inflows into RMB assets, and Sino - US competition will focus on technology and supply - chain security [1]. - In 2026, a macro - hedging portfolio should be constructed under the premise of seeking certainty. Commodity assets will have prominent allocation value, with the order of commodity > equity > bond. Attention should be paid to potential uncertainties such as recessions in Europe and the US, domestic inflation repair, geopolitics, and real - estate risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Cycle Changes: Resonance of "De - globalization" and Loose Fiscal Policies (1) The Wave of De - globalization: From Great - Power Games to the G2 Pattern - International events such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the Trump administration's high - tariff policies have led to the wave of de - globalization, which is essentially the reshaping of the world order [6]. - Traditional capitalist powers like the US and the UK are withdrawing from international alliances, while emerging - market countries led by China are exploring new international cooperation models. A G2 competition pattern between China and the US is gradually taking shape in key technologies and resources [7]. - The wave of de - globalization has increased the vulnerability of the global supply chain, deteriorated the global trade environment, and accelerated the rotation and increased the volatility of global major assets. The credit systems of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have been shaken [9]. (2) Loose Fiscal Resonance: Upward Global Manufacturing and Inventory Cycles - In 2026, the fiscal policies of major overseas economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to expand further. The US "big and beautiful" bill may increase the fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion in the next decade, and EU countries will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Japan will implement a trillion - level economic stimulus plan. This will lead to an increase in economic activity demand and drive up the global manufacturing and inventory cycles [15]. (3) Resource Shortage: Tightening Supply - Demand Balance - De - globalization has increased supply - chain vulnerability, and loose fiscal policies will stimulate demand, leading to a tightening of the global industrial supply - demand relationship. Countries will pay more attention to resource competition for national security. The US is seizing resources through trade control and military actions. Core resources such as minerals and energy will see price increases in 2026 [16]. II. The Game between Endogenous Momentum and External Changes (1) Endogenous Economic Transformation: Long - Term Policy Guidance of the 15th Five - Year Plan - In 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China aims to achieve a reasonable GDP growth rate while gradually realizing structural transformation. New - quality productivity sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy will become new pillar industries [17]. - Investment will be the supporting force for achieving economic growth goals, while consumption will be the main growth driver. Exports will remain a mainstay due to factors such as reduced Sino - US trade - dispute volatility, fiscal expansion in developed economies, and the rise of emerging markets. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and new areas will support economic growth, and real - estate's negative impact on the economy is expected to turn neutral [18][19][23]. - In the consumption area, policies will focus on releasing existing demand through subsidies and exploring incremental demand by expanding service - consumption scenarios [27]. (2) External Changes and Game: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities - The weakening of the US dollar credit due to the expiration of the "petro - dollar" agreement and the establishment of a new cross - border settlement mechanism provides an opportunity for RMB assets. International capital will flow back to the Asia - Pacific market and drive up the prices of RMB - denominated assets. China can promote RMB internationalization [30]. - Sino - US relations will remain a key variable in 2026. The two countries have long - term competition and phased balance in technology and resource issues. The competition pattern will not change significantly, and extreme decoupling is unlikely [31]. III. Guidance on Major Asset Allocation: Constructing a Macro - Hedging Portfolio (1) Between "Change and Constancy": Unchanging Competition Relations and Changing Cycle Rotations - The long - term competition exists among all global economies due to limited resources and growing economic demand. China's economic recovery has three main lines: technological independence, price repair, and expansion of domestic demand. The US will try to avoid recession and stagflation, and continue to rely on the stock market and AI to support the economy [33]. (2) 2026: Seeking Certainty and Constructing a Major Asset Portfolio: Commodity > Equity > Bond - In 2026, asset allocation should pursue certainty and balance risks. Attention should be paid to risks such as recessions in Europe and the US, slow domestic inflation repair, intensified de - globalization, and a downward real - estate market [36]. (3) Grasping the Rhythm and Main Lines in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms - Based on economic - cycle theory, in the high - inflation and high - growth stage (2026 - 2027 expected), commodities will be dominant. Different commodity sectors will rotate in the order of risk pricing, expected trading, and real - situation regression [37]. - In 2026, the four quarters will be dominated by different factors: Q1 is dominated by short - term liquidity, driving up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals; Q2 focuses on correcting the mid - term narrative; Q3 verifies the long - term logic; Q4 is for brewing cross - year expectations [39].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 王法族 Z0019938 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 江苏均价 8550 50 0.58% | 8600 | | 期价 Y2605 8044 40 0.50% | 8084 | | 1.98% | | | 某差 Y2605 506 10 | 516 | | 现货基差报价 -20 - | | | 棕榈油 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 90 1.01% | 8970 | | 期价 P2605 8832 112 1.27% | 8944 | | 48 基差 P2605 -22 -45.83% | 26 | | 豆棕现货价差 现货 -330 -40 -12.12% | -370 | | 炼油厂豁免政策,市场对最终出台的法规持谨慎乐观态度,认为这些法规将对生物质 | | | 菜籽油 | | | 1月21日 狱跌 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 江苏三级 9906 60 0.61% 现价 | | | 期价 OIROS 8947 રેર 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72% silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5,648, with a basis of 38 and a basis rate of 0.68% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: The conversion price of 65% silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 5,814, with a basis of 136 and a basis rate of 2.34% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: The market price of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou market is 4,570, with a basis of -279 and a basis rate of -9.80% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: The price of HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai is 3,270, with a basis of 146 and a basis rate of 4.67% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: The price of Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3,280, with a basis of -7 and a basis rate of -0.21% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 843, with a basis of 56 and a basis rate of 7.15% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,713, with a basis of 25 and a basis rate of 1.46% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1,156, with a basis of 25 and a basis rate of 2.17% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: The SMM electrolytic copper average price is 100,070, with a basis of -630 and a basis rate of -0.133% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 23,740, with a basis of -315 and a basis rate of -1.31% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2,633, with a basis of -84 and a basis rate of -3.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: The market price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong market (converted to 100%) is 1,944, with a basis of -4 and a basis rate of -0.22% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 24,240, with a basis of -160 and a basis rate of -0.66% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 403,250, with a basis of -5,760 and a basis rate of -1.41% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 141,700, with a basis of -800 and a basis rate of -0.56% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: The price of 304/2B 2*1240*C stainless steel from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 14,070, with a basis of 215 and a basis rate of 1.55% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000, with a basis of 1,060 and a basis rate of 0.65% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: The SMM industrial silicon average price is 9,250, with a basis of 425 and a basis rate of 4.82% [1]. Precious Metals - **IM2603.CFE**: The spot price is 8,309.3, with a basis of -16.7 and a basis rate of -0.20% [1]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) price is 1,083.9, with a basis of -3.7 and a basis rate of -0.80% [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) price is 23,366, with a basis of 27 and a basis rate of 0.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 3,080, with a basis of 312 and a basis rate of 11.27% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,500, with a basis of 416 and a basis rate of 5.15% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: The delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8,880, with a basis of -64 and a basis rate of -0.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: The ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2,440, with a basis of 190 and a basis rate of 8.44% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9,840, with a basis of 838 and a basis rate of 9.31% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,360, with a basis of 65 and a basis rate of 2.83% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2,630, with a basis of 61 and a basis rate of 2.37% [1]. - **Hogs (H2603)**: The ex - farm price of live hogs (outer ternary) in Henan is 13,200, with a basis of 1,600 and a basis rate of 13.79% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: The ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3,620, with a basis of 525 and a basis rate of 16.96% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: The market price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15,550, with a basis of 820 and a basis rate of 5.57% [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station (origin: Guangxi) is 5,340, with a basis of 182 and a basis rate of 3.53% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 9,400, with a basis of -89 and a basis rate of -0.94% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 8,000, with a basis of -745 and a basis rate of -8.52% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: The spot price at the main Chinese port (CFR, converted to RMB) is 7,279, with a basis of -111 and a basis rate of -1.50% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of purified terephthalic acid in East China is 5,210, with a basis of -88 and a basis rate of -1.66% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm, direct - spinning) in East China is 6,540, with a basis of -100 and a basis rate of -1.51% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China is 7,855, with a basis of 161 and a basis rate of 2.09% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,238, with a basis of -22 and a basis rate of -0.97% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene (film grade) in Shandong is 6,640, with a basis of -174 and a basis rate of -2.55% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6,575, with a basis of -49 and a basis rate of -0.74% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4,798, with a basis of 664 and a basis rate of 16.06% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3,080, with a basis of -162 and a basis rate of -5.00% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe is 1,150, with a basis of -35 and a basis rate of -3.04% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: The Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) is 15,600, with a basis of -250 and a basis rate of -1.50% [1]. Financial Products - **IF2603.CFE**: The spot price is 4,723.7, with a basis of -4.3 and a basis rate of -0.09% [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: The spot price is 3,053.1, with a basis of 8.1 and a basis rate of 0.26% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: The spot price is 100.09, with a basis of 0 and a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: The spot price is 99.61, with a basis of -0.01 and a basis rate of -0.01% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: The spot price is 100.46, with a basis of 0.01 and a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: The spot price is 126.61, with a basis of 0.22 and a basis rate of 0.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1,750 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,735, with a basis of -112 and a basis rate of -2.99% [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: The spot price is 8,387.6, with a basis of 12.4 and a basis rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: The market price of 5mm float glass in Shahe is 928, with a basis of -129 and a basis rate of -13.90% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China is 12,000, with a basis of -270 and a basis rate of -2.20% [1].

| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 | | | | 张鹏 | | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 1月22日 1月21日 | | | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(3月) 64.06 65.24 | | | -1.18 | -1.8% | | 美元/稍 | | 59.36 WTI原油(3月) 60.62 | | | -1.26 | -2.1% | | | | CFR日本石脑油 567 રકતે | | | 8 | 1.4% | | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 710 710 | | | 0 | 0.0% | | | | CFR中国纪本 754 736 | | | 18 | 2.4% | | 美元/吨 | | 187 纯苯-石脑油 177 | | | 10 | 5.6% | | | | 巴图中·蒙口 143 151 | | | -8 | -5.3% | | | | ...

ll 报 2026年1月23日 Wind. SMM. 广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读招生居瑞免责声明 已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证 表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权归广发期货所有． 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。 如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 现日报 周敏波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 100070 | 100060 | +10.00 | 0.01% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -170 | -180 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 100310 | 99820 | +490.00 | 0.49% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 52.70% | F期现价差 | -4.31 | -4.04 | 78.60% | H期现价差 | 8.07 | 97.50% | 1.65 | 92.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 12.41 | -18.48 | 99.10% | 96.00% | 45.27 | IM期现价差 | -16.75 | 90.00% | 61.60% | 次月-当月 | -2.60 | -1.20 | 87.7096 | 54:20% | | | 零月-当月 | -39.00 | -2.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information available Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of four stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), including the overall position changes and the important changes in the top 20 seats [1] Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 22, the total position of the IF variety increased by 2,744 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 895 lots [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 46,356 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,701 lots; Galaxy Futures had the largest decrease in long positions, with an intraday decrease of 795 lots [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 40,476 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 793 lots; Huatai Futures had the largest decrease in short positions, with an intraday decrease of 647 lots [7] IH (SSE 50) - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 22, the total position of the IH variety increased by 1,408 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 520 lots [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 11,323 lots. Everbright Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 434 lots; Galaxy Futures had the largest decrease in long positions, with an intraday decrease of 645 lots [11] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 14,094 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 643 lots; Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease in short positions, with an intraday decrease of 571 lots [12] IC (CSI 500) - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 22, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 432 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 1,824 lots [16] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 49,404 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,949 lots; Huatai Futures had the largest decrease in long positions, with an intraday decrease of 1,964 lots [17] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 53,838 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 842 lots; Guoxin Futures had the largest decrease in short positions, with an intraday decrease of 912 lots [19] IM (CSI 1000) - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 22, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 9,411 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 5,555 lots [22] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 54,123 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 248 lots; Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease in long positions, with an intraday decrease of 2,368 lots [23] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 72,781 lots. Galaxy Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 379 lots; Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease in short positions, with an intraday decrease of 2,746 lots [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closing at 3,124 yuan and 3,288 yuan respectively. The iron - water production is expected to decline slightly this week, rebar production will increase, and hot - rolled coil production will decrease. The industry is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Rebar demand has a significant seasonal decline, while hot - rolled coil demand has a relatively small decline. Recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. Consider taking profits on long positions of the steel - ore ratio when the price is high and continue to hold long positions of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3,050 - 3,250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,200 - 3,350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron - ore contract oscillated, with weak price rebound. Support factors for iron ore are reversing. Iron - water复产 falls short of expectations, the negotiation deadlock may change, and steel - mill restocking is gradually being realized. The supply side shows a decline in the global shipment volume of iron ore, and the shipment center has dropped. The demand side indicates that iron - water production remains flat this week, and the port clearance volume has started to decline seasonally, suppressing the pre - holiday iron - water复产 height. Steel - mill profitability has dropped significantly, and the subsequent iron - water复产 space is restricted. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel - mill inventory is increasing at a slower pace. Iron ore is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand, and its price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot market is currently stable. After the price adjustment, coke production is affected by coking coal, and coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. Steel mills are gradually resuming production after the New Year's Day, iron - water production has slightly increased, and steel prices have rebounded at a low level. Overall inventory has slightly increased, and coke supply - demand has improved. Some coke enterprises are starting to resist price cuts and initiate price increases, but the post - holiday market will be loose again, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,600 - 1,800 yuan. Coking coal futures oscillated at a low level. The spot auction price in Shanxi mostly increased, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. The supply side is in the复产 stage, and the demand side is at a low level. With downstream restocking, overall inventory has slightly increased. The post - holiday market supply - demand is expected to be loose, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,000 - 1,200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, but the absolute value is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand side indicates that iron - water复产 may fall short of expectations, and non - steel demand has weakened. The inventory is still at a high level but is declining month - on - month. The cost side shows that alloy manufacturers are starting to replenish manganese ore, which supports the manganese ore price. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5,300 - 5,800 yuan. Ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, and the demand side also shows weakness. The high inventory still exerts pressure on the price, and the price is expected to fall, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, while futures prices had slight increases or decreases. The spreads between different contracts also changed slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was stable, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, rebar production increased by 4.9%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.8%, rebar inventory increased by 3.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material transaction volume decreased by 6.3%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.5%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron - ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron - ore varieties at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 0.4% [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9%, the global shipment volume decreased by 7.9%, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 1.0%, the national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.7%, the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases or decreases. The coking profit decreased by 16 [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions remained unchanged [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 2.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7%, and the port inventory increased by 4.2% [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 3.84 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal CIF price increased by 0.8%, and the Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 3.9% [5]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 2.6%, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.04%, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.24% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 1.04%, and the spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of change. The spreads between different regions and the main contract also changed [6]. Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 0.54%, and the spot prices in different regions remained unchanged [6]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in different origins showed little change or slight decreases. The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.0%, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 4.4% [6]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 35.6%, the arrival volume increased by 38.84%, and the port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.34%, and the ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.34% [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand increased by 1.2%, the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.94%, the daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.6%, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.04% [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 5.44%, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises remained unchanged [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, due to the strengthening of butadiene, the cost support for BR was strong, driving a strong rebound of BR. As of the time of publication, the main contract of synthetic rubber futures, BR2603, rose by more than 4% [1] - In the short - term, BR cost is strongly supported, but the operating rate and inventory of BR are both high, and butadiene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in February. Therefore, in the short - term, BR2603 may test the previous resistance level of 12,500 again. It is not recommended to short BR, and those who previously held long positions in BR2603 can choose to reduce positions and take profits around 12,500 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Cost - side Driving Factors - **Short - term**: The current supply - demand situation of butadiene is good. Affected by the previous maintenance of devices, the domestic butadiene operating rate declined in January until late January when domestic devices gradually restarted. The downstream operating rate is relatively high. The latest inventory at the East China port of butadiene this week is about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from last week. Due to tight domestic supply - demand and the expected decline in net imports, the price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. The production profit of BR has changed from profit to loss, indicating strong cost support for BR [3] - **Medium - term**: There will be no new butadiene devices put into production in the first half of the year, but there is an expectation of new devices being put into production in the downstream industry in the second quarter. There will be a mismatch between production and supply - demand in the butadiene industry chain, and the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season for Northeast Asian ethylene, so the supply - demand of butadiene will be tight in the second quarter [3] Demand - side Driving Factors - The EU will not implement temporary anti - dumping measures, reducing the export pressure on Chinese tires. The overall orders of tire enterprises in January improved compared with last month. The cancellation of the planned anti - dumping tax on Chinese - made PCR by the EU on January 21, 2026 is beneficial to the export of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises. The orders for semi - steel tire exports to the EU improved significantly compared with last month. Coupled with the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period at home and abroad, the overall orders are relatively sufficient, which supports the production scheduling of tire enterprises in January [8] Market Outlook - **Cost side**: The high inventory of butadiene at ports in the short - term has been alleviated, with weak import and strong export expectations. The price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream operating rate will decline, and many domestic butadiene devices restarted in late January. It is expected that butadiene will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, suppressing the upward space of butadiene prices [10] - **Supply side**: As butadiene strengthens, the production of BR has changed from profit to loss. However, since the futures market is stronger than the spot market, the supply is expected to decline slowly, and the inventory of BR will remain at a high level in the short term [10] - **Demand side**: The orders of tire enterprises were sufficient in January, and it is expected that Chinese tires will still rush to export to the EU from January to March. BR is still much cheaper than natural rubber, maintaining high cost - effectiveness. Therefore, the demand for BR is expected to improve in the first quarter [10]