Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is firm, with some specifications in Jiangsu region experiencing price increases due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, the log futures have declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short - term, the price is expected to have certain support. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the range of 750 - 800 [3] Group 4: Price and Basis Futures Prices - On January 22, the price of Log 2601 was 772.5, down 2.5 (-0.32%) from January 21; Log 2603 was 768.5, up 4.5 (0.59%); Log 2605 was 786.0, up 4.5 (0.58%); Log 2607 was 799.5, up 4.5 (0.57%) [2] Spot Prices - The price of Rizhao Port 3.9A small radiata pine remained at 680.0 on January 22 and 21; 3.9A medium radiata pine at 740; 3.9A large radiata pine at 850. Taicang Port 4A small radiata pine was 700 on January 22, up 10 (1.45%) from January 21; 4A medium radiata pine was 770, up 10 (1.32%); 4A large radiata pine remained at 800. Rizhao Port spruce 11.8 was 1150 on January 22, down 10 (-0.86%) from January 21 [2] Basis - The basis of the main contract on January 22 was -28.5, down 4.5 from January 21 [2] Outer - market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine remained at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter on January 23 and January 16; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 124 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 23 was 6.965, up 0.01 from January 22. The import theoretical cost (calculated at 15% over - size) was 754.54 yuan on January 23, up 0.71 from January 22 [2] Group 5: Supply Monthly Supply - As of December 31, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 (7.82%) from November 30. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 (12.24%) from 49.0 [2] Forecasted Shipments - From January 19 - January 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week (0% week - on - week increase), and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, down 19,000 cubic meters (5% week - on - week decrease) [3] Group 6: Inventory and Demand Inventory - As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, down 120,000 cubic meters from last week (-4.46%) [2][3] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log outbound volume was 61,600 cubic meters, up 4,100 cubic meters from last week (7%) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the world will be in a macro - background of deepening "de - globalization" and the resonance of loose fiscal policies of major economies. Supply - chain vulnerability and demand expansion will lead to a tightening of resource supply - demand relations, and intensify strategic competition for key minerals and energy [1]. - China's economy will be based on the principle of "internal stability and external control" in 2026. Exports will remain a mainstay, investment will play a supporting role, and consumption will focus on equipment updates and service - scenario innovation. The de - dollarization trend and the weakening of the US dollar credit will bring opportunities for international capital inflows into RMB assets, and Sino - US competition will focus on technology and supply - chain security [1]. - In 2026, a macro - hedging portfolio should be constructed under the premise of seeking certainty. Commodity assets will have prominent allocation value, with the order of commodity > equity > bond. Attention should be paid to potential uncertainties such as recessions in Europe and the US, domestic inflation repair, geopolitics, and real - estate risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Cycle Changes: Resonance of "De - globalization" and Loose Fiscal Policies (1) The Wave of De - globalization: From Great - Power Games to the G2 Pattern - International events such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the Trump administration's high - tariff policies have led to the wave of de - globalization, which is essentially the reshaping of the world order [6]. - Traditional capitalist powers like the US and the UK are withdrawing from international alliances, while emerging - market countries led by China are exploring new international cooperation models. A G2 competition pattern between China and the US is gradually taking shape in key technologies and resources [7]. - The wave of de - globalization has increased the vulnerability of the global supply chain, deteriorated the global trade environment, and accelerated the rotation and increased the volatility of global major assets. The credit systems of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have been shaken [9]. (2) Loose Fiscal Resonance: Upward Global Manufacturing and Inventory Cycles - In 2026, the fiscal policies of major overseas economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to expand further. The US "big and beautiful" bill may increase the fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion in the next decade, and EU countries will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Japan will implement a trillion - level economic stimulus plan. This will lead to an increase in economic activity demand and drive up the global manufacturing and inventory cycles [15]. (3) Resource Shortage: Tightening Supply - Demand Balance - De - globalization has increased supply - chain vulnerability, and loose fiscal policies will stimulate demand, leading to a tightening of the global industrial supply - demand relationship. Countries will pay more attention to resource competition for national security. The US is seizing resources through trade control and military actions. Core resources such as minerals and energy will see price increases in 2026 [16]. II. The Game between Endogenous Momentum and External Changes (1) Endogenous Economic Transformation: Long - Term Policy Guidance of the 15th Five - Year Plan - In 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China aims to achieve a reasonable GDP growth rate while gradually realizing structural transformation. New - quality productivity sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy will become new pillar industries [17]. - Investment will be the supporting force for achieving economic growth goals, while consumption will be the main growth driver. Exports will remain a mainstay due to factors such as reduced Sino - US trade - dispute volatility, fiscal expansion in developed economies, and the rise of emerging markets. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and new areas will support economic growth, and real - estate's negative impact on the economy is expected to turn neutral [18][19][23]. - In the consumption area, policies will focus on releasing existing demand through subsidies and exploring incremental demand by expanding service - consumption scenarios [27]. (2) External Changes and Game: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities - The weakening of the US dollar credit due to the expiration of the "petro - dollar" agreement and the establishment of a new cross - border settlement mechanism provides an opportunity for RMB assets. International capital will flow back to the Asia - Pacific market and drive up the prices of RMB - denominated assets. China can promote RMB internationalization [30]. - Sino - US relations will remain a key variable in 2026. The two countries have long - term competition and phased balance in technology and resource issues. The competition pattern will not change significantly, and extreme decoupling is unlikely [31]. III. Guidance on Major Asset Allocation: Constructing a Macro - Hedging Portfolio (1) Between "Change and Constancy": Unchanging Competition Relations and Changing Cycle Rotations - The long - term competition exists among all global economies due to limited resources and growing economic demand. China's economic recovery has three main lines: technological independence, price repair, and expansion of domestic demand. The US will try to avoid recession and stagflation, and continue to rely on the stock market and AI to support the economy [33]. (2) 2026: Seeking Certainty and Constructing a Major Asset Portfolio: Commodity > Equity > Bond - In 2026, asset allocation should pursue certainty and balance risks. Attention should be paid to risks such as recessions in Europe and the US, slow domestic inflation repair, intensified de - globalization, and a downward real - estate market [36]. (3) Grasping the Rhythm and Main Lines in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms - Based on economic - cycle theory, in the high - inflation and high - growth stage (2026 - 2027 expected), commodities will be dominant. Different commodity sectors will rotate in the order of risk pricing, expected trading, and real - situation regression [37]. - In 2026, the four quarters will be dominated by different factors: Q1 is dominated by short - term liquidity, driving up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals; Q2 focuses on correcting the mid - term narrative; Q3 verifies the long - term logic; Q4 is for brewing cross - year expectations [39].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 王法族 Z0019938 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 江苏均价 8550 50 0.58% | 8600 | | 期价 Y2605 8044 40 0.50% | 8084 | | 1.98% | | | 某差 Y2605 506 10 | 516 | | 现货基差报价 -20 - | | | 棕榈油 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 90 1.01% | 8970 | | 期价 P2605 8832 112 1.27% | 8944 | | 48 基差 P2605 -22 -45.83% | 26 | | 豆棕现货价差 现货 -330 -40 -12.12% | -370 | | 炼油厂豁免政策,市场对最终出台的法规持谨慎乐观态度,认为这些法规将对生物质 | | | 菜籽油 | | | 1月21日 狱跌 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 江苏三级 9906 60 0.61% 现价 | | | 期价 OIROS 8947 રેર 0. ...

| 0.68% 硅铁 (SF603) 38 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | 5648 | 5610 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐 (SM603) 136 234% 51.90% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | 2950 | 5814 | | | | | -5 75% PVC(V2605) -279.0 9.80% 中国:常州市场:市场价(主流价):聚氯乙烯(SG-5) | | 4570.0 | 4849.0 | | | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) 146 4.67% 61.20% HRB40020mm: 上海 | | 3270 | 3124 | | | | | -7 热卷(HC2605) -0 21% 15.70% Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | 3280 | 3287 | | | | | 56 铁矿石 (12605) 7.15% 44.70% 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | 843 | 787 | | | | | 焦炭 (J2605) ટે 1. ...

| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 | | | | 张鹏 | | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 1月22日 1月21日 | | | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(3月) 64.06 65.24 | | | -1.18 | -1.8% | | 美元/稍 | | 59.36 WTI原油(3月) 60.62 | | | -1.26 | -2.1% | | | | CFR日本石脑油 567 રકતે | | | 8 | 1.4% | | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 710 710 | | | 0 | 0.0% | | | | CFR中国纪本 754 736 | | | 18 | 2.4% | | 美元/吨 | | 187 纯苯-石脑油 177 | | | 10 | 5.6% | | | | 巴图中·蒙口 143 151 | | | -8 | -5.3% | | | | ...

ll 报 2026年1月23日 Wind. SMM. 广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读招生居瑞免责声明 已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证 表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权归广发期货所有． 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。 如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 现日报 周敏波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 100070 | 100060 | +10.00 | 0.01% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -170 | -180 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 100310 | 99820 | +490.00 | 0.49% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 52.70% | F期现价差 | -4.31 | -4.04 | 78.60% | H期现价差 | 8.07 | 97.50% | 1.65 | 92.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 12.41 | -18.48 | 99.10% | 96.00% | 45.27 | IM期现价差 | -16.75 | 90.00% | 61.60% | 次月-当月 | -2.60 | -1.20 | 87.7096 | 54:20% | | | 零月-当月 | -39.00 | -2.6 ...

股指期货持仓日度变动简评 895.0 520.0 -1,824.0 -5,555.0 2,744.0 1,408.0 -432.0 -9,411.0 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国投多头加仓超千手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 中信多头加仓近 2000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓超 2000 手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closing at 3,124 yuan and 3,288 yuan respectively. The iron - water production is expected to decline slightly this week, rebar production will increase, and hot - rolled coil production will decrease. The industry is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Rebar demand has a significant seasonal decline, while hot - rolled coil demand has a relatively small decline. Recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. Consider taking profits on long positions of the steel - ore ratio when the price is high and continue to hold long positions of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3,050 - 3,250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,200 - 3,350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron - ore contract oscillated, with weak price rebound. Support factors for iron ore are reversing. Iron - water复产 falls short of expectations, the negotiation deadlock may change, and steel - mill restocking is gradually being realized. The supply side shows a decline in the global shipment volume of iron ore, and the shipment center has dropped. The demand side indicates that iron - water production remains flat this week, and the port clearance volume has started to decline seasonally, suppressing the pre - holiday iron - water复产 height. Steel - mill profitability has dropped significantly, and the subsequent iron - water复产 space is restricted. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel - mill inventory is increasing at a slower pace. Iron ore is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand, and its price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot market is currently stable. After the price adjustment, coke production is affected by coking coal, and coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. Steel mills are gradually resuming production after the New Year's Day, iron - water production has slightly increased, and steel prices have rebounded at a low level. Overall inventory has slightly increased, and coke supply - demand has improved. Some coke enterprises are starting to resist price cuts and initiate price increases, but the post - holiday market will be loose again, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,600 - 1,800 yuan. Coking coal futures oscillated at a low level. The spot auction price in Shanxi mostly increased, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. The supply side is in the复产 stage, and the demand side is at a low level. With downstream restocking, overall inventory has slightly increased. The post - holiday market supply - demand is expected to be loose, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,000 - 1,200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, but the absolute value is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand side indicates that iron - water复产 may fall short of expectations, and non - steel demand has weakened. The inventory is still at a high level but is declining month - on - month. The cost side shows that alloy manufacturers are starting to replenish manganese ore, which supports the manganese ore price. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5,300 - 5,800 yuan. Ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, and the demand side also shows weakness. The high inventory still exerts pressure on the price, and the price is expected to fall, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, while futures prices had slight increases or decreases. The spreads between different contracts also changed slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was stable, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, rebar production increased by 4.9%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.8%, rebar inventory increased by 3.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material transaction volume decreased by 6.3%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.5%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron - ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron - ore varieties at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 0.4% [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9%, the global shipment volume decreased by 7.9%, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 1.0%, the national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.7%, the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases or decreases. The coking profit decreased by 16 [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions remained unchanged [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 2.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7%, and the port inventory increased by 4.2% [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 3.84 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal CIF price increased by 0.8%, and the Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 3.9% [5]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 2.6%, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.04%, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.24% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 1.04%, and the spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of change. The spreads between different regions and the main contract also changed [6]. Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 0.54%, and the spot prices in different regions remained unchanged [6]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in different origins showed little change or slight decreases. The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.0%, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 4.4% [6]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 35.6%, the arrival volume increased by 38.84%, and the port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.34%, and the ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.34% [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand increased by 1.2%, the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.94%, the daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.6%, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.04% [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 5.44%, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises remained unchanged [6].

驱动分析一：成本端丁二烯近端供需不差，且中期预期较好，BR 成本支撑较强 异动点评：成本端坚挺，带动 BR 强势反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 赖众栋（投资咨询资格编号：Z0023571） 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 行情导读：1 月 22 日，由于丁二烯走强，BR 成本支撑较强，带动 BR 强势反弹，截至发稿，合成橡胶 期货主力合约 BR2603 涨超 4%。 数据来源：iFinD 短期来看，丁二烯现实端供需不差，受前期检修装置影响，1 月国内丁二烯开工率震荡下行，直到 1 月下旬起，国内装置才陆续重启，同时，下游开工率相对较高，根据隆众资讯统计，本周丁二烯华东 港口最新库存在 34500 吨左右，较上周大幅下降 10100 吨，这是由于周内进口船货到港有限，主力下 游行业开工相对高位影响原料库存下降明显，使得港口库存大幅下降。在国内供需偏紧与净进口预期 下滑的影响下，国内外丁二烯价格易涨难跌，价格表现坚挺。由于丁二烯价格强于顺丁橡胶，顺丁橡 胶生产利润由盈转亏，近期山东个别生产企业存在外售丁二烯资源缓解生产亏损行为，表明顺丁橡胶 的成本支撑较强。 中期来看，上半年丁二烯 ...