原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月11日 期货和现货价格 | NUNTHANNING | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月10日 | 12月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 756.0 | 766.5 | -10.5 | -1.37% | | | 原木2603 | 776.5 | 778.5 | -2.0 | -0.26% | | | 原木2605 | 787.0 | 789.5 | -2.5 | -0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -20.5 | -12.0 | -8.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -31.0 | -23.0 | -8.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.5 | -38.5 | 2.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -16.0 | -26.5 | 10.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 ...

电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头各增仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头各增仓 2000 手左右 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头加仓逾千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头均加仓超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -4,561.0 592.0 -4,521.0 -1,039.0 7,169.0 4,369.0 2,642.0 9,226.0 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Affected by the news that Vanke might be bailed out, the real estate industry's expectations are being restored, and the prices of the black series have risen from their lows. After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded its balance - sheet last night, the overall sentiment is dovish, which is expected to boost the market. The previous decline in steel prices was mainly due to the fall of raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction. The downward driving force is not strong, but the overall demand is average with a year - on - year decline, and the falling iron - water production cycle suppresses raw material prices. Steel will maintain a volatile trend, with the focus on the 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan ranges for May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be continued, and the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage should be exited [2] - **Iron Ore**: Stimulated by real estate利好 news, iron ore futures rebounded yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, iron - water production declined, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, steel production, inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, as steel mills' iron - water production decreases and steel prices fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. For strategies, hold a bearish view on iron ore futures with a volatile trend, and short the iron ore 2605 contract on rallies, with the operating range of 730 - 780 [6] - **Coke**: Coke futures rebounded yesterday. On the spot side, the second round of coke price cuts started on December 10 and is expected to be implemented on the 12th, with short - term price cut expectations still remaining, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coal types have continued to fall back, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal, coking profits have been restored, and the start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, steel prices have rebounded, steel mill profits have been restored, and there is an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - finding stage. For strategies, hold a bearish view on coke futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1450 - 1600, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures declined yesterday. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to fall, Mongolian coal quotes decreased, and the recent auction failure rate has remained at 30 - 50%. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has become more relaxed again. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily output has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to poor sales, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down, and the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, coking plants' start - up rate has slightly increased after profit recovery, and the market's inventory replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal - washing plants, ports, and ports of entry have increased inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. In terms of policies, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern continues. For strategies, coking coal spot prices continue to fall, the futures market has declined significantly, the main contract has shifted to coking coal 2605. Hold a bearish view on coking coal futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1000 - 1150, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, rebar spot in East China increased from 3260 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract rose from 3079 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The cost of steel billets increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 44 yuan to - 71 yuan [2] - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decline of 1.5% [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decline of 0.1% [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 2.2 to 11.4 tons, an increase of 23.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 1.7% [2] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders all increased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased from 830.4 yuan/ton to 835.9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 24.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.0 to - 42.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.0 to 18.5 [6] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [6] - **Demand**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decline of 2.0% [6] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decline of 5.0% [6] Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract increased by 13 to 1527, and the 05 contract increased by 24 to 1701. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 to - 54 [8] - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 tons to 625.3 tons, a decline of 0.0%. The port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a decline of 3.3% [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.2 tons to - 1.3 tons, an increase of 166.8% [8] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 21 to 983, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 to 1070. The 01 - contract basis increased by 16 to 197, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 8 to 90. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [8] - **Supply**: The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [8] - **Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Inventory**: The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, an increase of 18.7%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking - coal inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 296.5 tons, an increase of 0.7% [8]

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 叶倩宁 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5478 | 5434 | | 44 | 0 81% | 60.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5790 | 5724 | ୧୧ | | 115% | 38.00% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | 3280 | 3117 | | 163 | 5.23% | 66.50% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | | | | | | | | | | 热卷(HC2605) | 3280 | 3282 | -2 | | -0.06% | 17.60% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12605) | 842 | 769 | 73 | | 9.45% | 56.30% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2601) | 1603 | 152 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and decline. The arbitrage window remains closed. In December, the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. Although the output decline is adjusted downward, demand is also expected to fall. In the short term, prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range shifting to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 8,000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Although the futures price has risen, there is still no official announcement about the storage platform. After the storage platform is established, whether subsequent capacity acquisition and output regulation can be implemented will affect whether the industrial supply - demand can return to balance. Currently, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. Polysilicon futures may still be in a high - level oscillation. Considering the weak demand, if there is no substantial production cut, the spot price has little upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Tin - Macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply within the year is expected to be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is more obviously suppressed. The tin price is expected to remain strong within the year. It is advisable to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [4]. Copper - The Fed has cut interest rates, and there is still a risk of structural imbalance in global inventories. Terminal demand is suppressed, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, the imbalance in supply and inventory drives the rapid increase in copper prices, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [5]. Zinc - The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and the export space has opened up, but spot transactions are average, and zinc prices are oscillating. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has improved. The short - term price has limited downward space. Refined zinc exports drive the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, the repair of the Shanghai - London ratio may drive zinc prices higher. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventories [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate. The key to the market's rebound lies in the actual production cut scale and the inflection point of inventory. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, prices are expected to remain strong, but high prices will suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [10]. Nickel - The supply pressure is still strong, and the upward space is limited. Macro - sentiment has improved slightly. The spot transaction of refined nickel is okay. The price of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased slightly. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined slightly. Overall, the price driver is weak after the valuation repair. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly due to the game between strong cost support and weak demand. The cost is strongly supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials and the increase in the price of auxiliary materials. The demand is weak because high aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. The price is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating. Macro - factors are temporarily stable. The supply pressure has slightly eased, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, the market has a certain repair expectation, but the driving force is limited [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and demand. The output has increased slightly, and downstream demand is optimistic. However, there are issues such as the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely [21]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon remained unchanged on December 10 compared with December 9. The basis of some varieties has changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 120% increase [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the production in some regions such as Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82%, and social inventory increased by 1.45% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 9.21% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased by 0.55%. The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 录月 - 连一 contract with a - 102.17% change [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers have also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.22%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.87% [4]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 2.15%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35% increase [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.96%, and LME inventory increased by 19.84% [4]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.56%, and the premium of some varieties has changed [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 132.28 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.16 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 10 - yuan increase [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. The import volume of copper concentrate decreased by 0.26%, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic mainstream ports increased by 3.75% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% [5]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.52%, and the import loss decreased by 61.84 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 50 - yuan increase [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. The import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 5.75%, and LME inventory increased by 2.84% [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.50%, and the price of alumina in some regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 76.1 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.48% [10]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.00%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 3.06% [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of some electrowinning nickel production methods has changed, such as the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel increasing by 0.19% [11]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 120 - yuan increase [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties has changed [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 20 - yuan decrease [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.70% [18]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11%, and the price of Wenzhou 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 0.55% [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 70 - yuan decrease [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.09% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.05%, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.12% [21]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 140 - yuan increase [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and the demand increased by 5.11% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 23.36%, and the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 21.13% [21].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月11日 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价去 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | -17.63 | 50.40% | 26.30% | F期现价差 | -2.60 | H期现价差 | -7.84 | 29.90% | -1.48 | 26.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -33.79 | -6,87 | 66,80% | 37.00% | IMINNA | 9,86 | 80,00% | 50.20% | -36.84 | 次月-当月 | 27.00% | 27.00% | -16.60 | -1.40 | | | 李月-当月 | -40.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月11日 出洋洋 | | | 田湖 | | | 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8550 8550 0 0.00% 现价 | | | 期价 Y2605 8222 8190 32 0.39% | | | 基差 Y2605 328 360 -32 -8.89% | | | 现货基差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 0 క | | | 仓单 25964 22994 2970 12.92% | | | 棕榈油 | | | 12月10日 12月9日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 8640 8640 0.00% 现价 广东24度 0 | | | 期价 P2601 8542 8648 -106 -1.23% | | | 基美 P2601 08 -8 106 1325.00% | | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+50 ా | | | 盘面进口利润 -499 -342 -157 -46.06% 广州港1月 | | | 仓車 ਰੇ50 702 248 35.33% ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月11日 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免费声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考; 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品神买卖的出价或间价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | 锡 | SN2601 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 甲醇 螺纹钢 | MA2601 rb2501 | 底部震荡偏强 震荡偏强 | | | | 玉米 | C2601 | 震荡偏弱 | | | | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2512 IH2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 | | | 股指 | IC2512 ...

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