股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 前二十席位多头加仓 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 东证多空头加仓超千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君空头加仓 3000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 1,331.0 -403.0 1,256.0 7,522.0 3,663.0 -1,993.0 3,134.0 11,728.0 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zh ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Copper - The market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut expectations in the US, but the timing of the cut is uncertain. In China, the spread of anti - involution sentiment is important for copper, and the policy's impact on smelting capacity clearance needs attention. The market's positive macro - sentiment boosts copper prices, but short - term sentiment ebbing risks should be noted. - On the fundamental side, copper demand weakens significantly as prices rebound, and combined with the traditional off - season effect, there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. However, China's macro - policies and low inventories support the copper price. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "looser supply expectations and weaker actual demand", and copper pricing returns to macro trading. The short - term positive anti - involution macro - sentiment boosts prices, but a callback risk due to sentiment ebbing should be watched. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the anti - involution policy brings expectations of capacity elimination and the risk of a squeeze due to a sharp reduction in warehouse receipts, which is beneficial to prices. But the rumor of large alumina plants'复产 also suppresses prices, and the market shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, the tight supply of bauxite in Guinea and low alumina futures warehouse receipts support price rebounds, and the basis weakens, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window. In the medium term, due to limited backward capacity, the impact of anti - involution on the alumina industry is mainly emotional. The restored and newly - added production capacity will increase spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400, and risks such as Guinea's policy changes and anti - involution policy follow - up should be noted. - For aluminum, the domestic consumption - stimulating atmosphere and anti - involution sentiment support aluminum prices, but the weakened Fed interest - rate cut expectations and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio leads to a bottom - probing trend in inventories. On the demand side, construction and real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports decline, and orders weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, with only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remaining resilient. In general, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, and the reference range for the main contract next week is 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum alloy market remained in a situation of weak supply and demand last week, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. Market transactions were mainly based on the strategy of spot - futures traders stocking up and hedging on the Shanghai Aluminum Futures to narrow the aluminum - alloy price spread, and terminal transactions were sluggish. The social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, and some areas were close to full capacity. On the supply side, low - priced overseas goods continued to impact the market; on the demand side, it was continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, with weak orders in the terminal automotive industry. Downstream die - casting enterprises generally had a pessimistic view of the future market, maintained a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy, and had a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in light market transactions. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to suppress price increases. It is expected that the market will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,400 - 20,200 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton. However, the global zinc ore production in May and China's domestic zinc ore production growth in June were both lower than expected. The improvement in refined zinc supply lags behind that of the ore end, but with the TC in an upward cycle and the continuous repair of smelting profits, smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter operating rate is at a high level in recent years, stronger than the seasonal norm. The expectation of loose refined zinc supply still exists. - On the demand side, the strengthening of the zinc price on the futures market significantly suppresses demand, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. Among the three primary processing industries, only the galvanizing sector performs well due to the black - series anti - involution policy, while the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide industries enter the seasonal off - season, and demand weakens. The center of the spot premium continues to decline, and the low absolute inventory level provides price support, but domestic social inventories may enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. In the short term, under the background of China's anti - involution macro - policy, the positive macro - sentiment leads to a rebound in zinc prices, but the impact of the zinc consumption off - season and the expectation of loose supply are insufficient to support continuous price increases. A callback risk after the sentiment ebbs should be noted, and low inventories provide price support. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual tin ore supply remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue to be at a low level. In June, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, with shipments expected to start around the end of August. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, photovoltaic tin - strip orders in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. In South China, the electronic consumption entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises declined significantly. Considering the subsequent impact of US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of China's consumption - stimulating policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the continuous decrease in LME tin inventories, the tin price is strongly oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment and the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [14]. Nickel - Last week, the Shanghai nickel futures market showed a strong - side oscillatory trend, and the central price of the main contract increased. The macro - sentiment provided a boost, while the fundamentals changed little. The Fed's attitude is currently wait - and - see, and the first interest - rate cut is expected to be in September. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline. In China, the anti - involution atmosphere is strong, which boosts commodities. - At the industrial level, the spot price increased, and the spot trading volume of refined nickel was average last week. The premiums of various brands of resources remained stable. Recently, the nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is still +24. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to production cuts at some smelters in Indonesian industrial parks, and the supply is currently relatively loose. The nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement, and terminal demand is relatively weak. The nickel sulfate price is relatively stable, but the downstream ternary materials industry has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain at a high level, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories remain stable. Overall, the positive market sentiment boosts the commodity sector, the nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market showed an overall strong - side oscillatory trend, and the spot price increased slightly. The macro - sentiment boosted the market, and spot - end agents and traders mostly maintained stable prices for sales, but market transactions were still average. In the macro - aspect, the US inflation expectation is currently mild, and overseas tariff risks still exist. The Fed's attitude is wait - and - see, while the domestic atmosphere is positive, with a series of favorable policies introduced, and the government's continuous increase in infrastructure investment boosts market confidence. - The nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is +24, and the supply is currently relatively loose. Driven by the improved sentiment, the nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. Stainless - steel mill maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, but the actual production reduction of steel mills is less than expected, and normal production is maintained during the postponed period, so the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Terminal demand is relatively weak. Due to the plum - rain season and continuous high - temperature weather, the recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Traders have more room for price negotiation but still struggle to increase trading volume. This year, the reduction of stainless - steel social inventories has been slow, and warehouse receipts have continued to decrease. Overall, recently, the market has been mainly driven by policies and macro - sentiment, and the spot - demand drive on the fundamentals is not obvious. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market rose significantly. The results of the Jiangxi mining - right approval are still to be verified, and some Qinghai salt - lake production capacities are at risk of reduction or suspension due to over - mining, increasing the volatility at the ore end. Coupled with the overall anti - involution background, the commodity expectations are boosted, and the market sentiment is positive. As of the close on July 25, the main contract 2509 closed at 80,520 yuan/ton. The lithium - ore price has accelerated its rise, and supply remains sufficient. Last week's production data decreased slightly. Demand is relatively stable, the seasonal characteristics are less obvious, battery - cell orders are okay, and the material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expected. However, due to the off - season and the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The entire industry chain is in an inventory - accumulation state, and the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down last week. The high - level inventory of upstream smelters is being reduced, while the inventory in other downstream trading links continues to accumulate. The fundamental logic has not changed, but in the short term, the combination of macro - boosting and news - uncertainty dominates the market trend. Funds are concentrated in the market for trading, and the market atmosphere is gradually pricing in the balance adjustment after the supply reduction or suspension. The trading core has shifted to the ore end. Recently, there are many market variables, which may amplify market fluctuations. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is driven by funds, and there are many unverified news items. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and wait and see. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and supply adjustments [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 841 yuan/ton, down 35.54% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread is - 53.68 US dollars/ton, down 3.76 US dollars from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 483 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan from the previous day; the Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) is 50 US dollars/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory was 560,900 tons, down 23.23% from the previous week; the electrolytic - copper rod operating rate was 69.37%, down 4.85 percentage points from the previous week; the recycled - copper rod operating rate was 27.31%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic social inventory was 114,200 tons, down 20.31% from the previous week; the bonded - area inventory was 82,200 tons, up 4.31% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 73,400 tons, down 13.17% from the previous week; the LME inventory was 128,500 tons, up 2.97% from the previous day; the COMEX inventory was 247,900 short tons, up 0.96% from the previous day; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 16,100 tons, down 96.72% from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,677 yuan/ton, down 100.8 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.85, down 0.01 from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 65 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, down 13.89% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 19,600 tons, down 39.69% from the previous month. The aluminum - profile operating rate was 50.50%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - cable operating rate was 61.60%, down 0.65% from the previous month; the aluminum - plate and strip operating rate was 63.20%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - foil operating rate was 69.60%, unchanged from the previous month; the primary aluminum - alloy operating rate was 54.00%, unchanged from the previous month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 510,000 tons, up 3.66% from the previous day; the LME inventory was 451,000 tons, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 spread is 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They provide detailed data on price differences, ratios, and related market indicators, helping investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide detailed data on the price differences of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - spot price difference is -3.33, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.10% and a full - historical percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Different cross - period price differences are presented, such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the difference between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts for each index futures [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, are also provided, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL, are given. For example, the TS basis on 2025 - 07 - 25 is 1.4667, with a change of 0.0162 from the previous day and a historical percentile of 19.10% [2]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Cross - period price differences for different contracts of treasury bond futures, such as the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, are presented [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Price differences between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T, are also provided [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The reports show the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, including AU2510, AG2510, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as their changes and price - to - spot differences [4]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: Ratios between gold and silver futures, such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and spreads between different gold and silver products, like gold TD - SHFE gold and silver TD - SHFE silver, are provided [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Information on interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield) and exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) is also included [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC, are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, including SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight indexes, such as SCFI composite index and SCFI (European), are presented, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures contracts, like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2508 (the main contract), and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index), are also given [6]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Information on overseas data and information sources for different sectors, such as Brazilian secex weekly reports in the agricultural sector and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, is provided [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Domestic data and information sources for different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments), energy and chemicals (e.g., MEG port inventory in East China, Shandong local refinery crude oil arrivals), and special commodities (e.g., glass sales - to - production ratio, polysilicon production and inventory), are presented [7].

| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月28日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3430 | 3380 | 50 | 31 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3380 | 3340 | 40 | -19 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3510 | 3470 | 40 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3418 | 3378 | 40 | 12 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3356 | 3294 | 62 | 74 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3399 | 3353 | 46 | 31 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3500 | 3470 | 30 | -18 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3440 | 3410 | 30 | -78 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices are affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances and continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, and pay attention to the increase in raw materials after the weather in the main producing areas improves [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the price of Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 350 yuan/ton to 15350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33%. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 10 to - 235, with a growth rate of 4.08%. Other prices also had different degrees of changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 to - 765, with a growth rate of 3.77%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 to - 125, with a decrease rate of 4.17% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, an increase of 166.5 thousand tons compared with the previous month, with a growth rate of 157.52%. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.12 to 75.87%, and the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 to 65.02% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 4006 to 636383, with a growth rate of 0.63%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 707 to 37398, with a growth rate of 1.93% [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the polysilicon futures price was strong. After the price increased significantly, the arbitrage window opened, and the hedging enthusiasm of upstream enterprises increased. It is expected that the price will return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. If the volatility of options falls, consider buying put options. Pay attention to the smoothness of the price downward transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation in the long - term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 3240 to - 4525, with a growth rate of 41.73% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased by 2740 to 51025, with a decrease rate of 5.10%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 50 to - 75, with a decrease rate of 200.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.25 to 2.55 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.87%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.10% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 to 24.3 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 to 17.87 million pieces, with a growth rate of 11.55% [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon futures price was affected by coking coal and polysilicon futures and once hit the daily limit, then fluctuated at a high level. The production increased slightly, but the demand is expected to decline by about 3%. Pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts after the arbitrage window opens. If large - scale enterprises resume production, polysilicon prices fall, or warehouse receipts continue to increase, short positions can be considered [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 25, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 10100 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 35 to 375, with a decrease rate of 8.54% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 15 to - 45, with a growth rate of 25.00%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 to 65, with a growth rate of 18.18% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 to 30.08 million tons, with a decrease rate of 12.10%. The national starting rate decreased by 6.57 to 51.23%, with a decrease rate of 11.37% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.25 to 12.61 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.02%. The social inventory decreased by 1.2 to 53.5 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.19% [5]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the soda ash futures price fluctuates sharply under the influence of policies and news, deviating from its own fundamental logic. The supply is in an obvious surplus pattern, and the inventory is under pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. - **Glass**: The glass futures price is boosted by policies and news. The spot market is strong, but the current fundamentals are in the summer rainy season off - peak, and the rigid demand is under pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the North China glass quotation increased by 30 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.46%. The glass 2509 contract increased by 55 to 1362, with a growth rate of 4.21% [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East China soda ash quotation increased by 70 to 1350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 5.47%. The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 32 to 1440, with a growth rate of 2.11% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate decreased by 1.28% to 83.02%. The weekly soda ash production decreased by 0.9 to 72.38 million tons, with a decrease rate of 1.28% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory decreased by 304.9 to 61890,000 weight boxes, with a decrease rate of 4.70%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.1 to 186.46 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.15% [6]. Group 5: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the log futures price fluctuated. Recently, black building materials commodities have rebounded, but the log futures price fluctuates repeatedly due to weak demand. The expected increase in arrivals this week and the inventory accumulation last week put pressure on the spot market. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 25, the log 2511 contract increased by 3.5 to 838, with a growth rate of 0.42%. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.02 to 7.162, with a growth rate of 0%. The import cost calculated at a 15% over - length was 802.73 [7]. - **Supply**: In June, the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, with a decrease rate of 8.62%. The national log inventory increased by 7 to 329 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.17% [7]. - **Demand**: The log daily average outbound volume increased by 0.36 to 6.24 million cubic meters [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia's export surge and B50 blending signal boosted the market, but market focus may shift back to Malaysia. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong, with potential for the futures to rise again [1]. - Soybean oil: US biodiesel policy can't sustain the uptrend. Trade negotiations affect CBOT soybeans. Domestic demand may increase later, providing some support for basis quotes [1]. Sugar - Internationally, the bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but with an overall bearish view considering the production increase. Domestically, the market is in a marginal supply - demand relaxation, with a bearish view after a rebound and short - term high - level narrow - range oscillation expected [4]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new cotton may face pressure after listing due to increased supply pressure and weak demand [6]. Corn - Short - term market trading is light, with the futures oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the third - quarter supply is tight, while the fourth - quarter may be more balanced [7]. Pork - Spot prices are weak. Short - term pig prices are not optimistic, with spot prices at the bottom and limited upside for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month is affected by policies [10]. Meal and Grains - US soybeans are at the bottom, with potential support. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and it's recommended to wait and see [13]. Eggs - This week's egg demand may first decrease and then increase. Next week, some areas' egg prices may decline slightly, but there is still upside potential for spot prices, while futures have limited upside [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On July 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 8144 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The basis was 236, up 21.65%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 to 21495 [1]. - **Palm oil**: In Guangdong, the 24 - degree spot price on July 25 was 9000 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of P2509 was 8936 yuan/ton, down 1.85%. The basis was - 168, up 218.52%. The import cost was 9289.1 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 282 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on July 25 was 9570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of O1509 was 9457 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The basis was 113, up 44.87% [1]. Sugar - **Futures market**: On July 25, the price of sugar 2601 was 5706 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5876 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 5920 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4512 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [3]. - **Industrial situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - **Futures market**: On July 25, the price of cotton 2509 was 14170 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the price of cotton 2601 was 14115 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.23 cents/pound, down 0.74% [6]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15419 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15549 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [6]. - **Industrial situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% month - on - month [6]. Corn - **Corn**: On July 25, the price of corn 2509 was 2311 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the basis was 40, up 16.67%. The import profit was 430 yuan/ton, down 2.39% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 was 2665 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 15, up 36.36% [7]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the main contract was - 225, down 36.36%; the price of pork 2511 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; the price of pork 2509 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Shandong was 14440 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [10]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2509 was 3021 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis was - 161, up 2.42% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2580 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the price of RM2509 was 2675 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The basis was - 95, up 15.18% [13]. - **Soybeans**: The price in Harbin was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4224 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 264, unchanged [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3628 yuan/500KG, down 0.22%; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3522 yuan/500KG, down 1.12% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged. The breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan/feather, up 20.53% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

Group 1: Metals Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF509), the basis is -288, the basis rate is -4.67%, the spot price is 5878, the futures price is 6166, and the historical quantile is 46.00% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM509), the basis is -444, the basis rate is -6.92%, the spot price is 5970, the futures price is 6414, and the historical quantile is 1.80% [1] - For rebar (RB2510), the basis is 74, the basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3356, and the historical quantile is 42.80% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the basis is -7, the basis rate is -0.20%, the spot price is 3500, the futures price is 3507, and the historical quantile is 15.00% [1] - For iron ore (I2509), the basis is 22, the basis rate is 2.73%, the spot price is 824, the futures price is 803, and the historical quantile is 20.70% [1] - For coke (J2509), the basis is -214, the basis rate is -12.14%, the spot price is 1549, the futures price is 1763, and the historical quantile is 2.52% [1] - For coking coal (JM2509), the basis is -84, the basis rate is -6.67%, the spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1259, and the historical quantile is 2.30% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2509), the basis is 125, the basis rate is 0.25%, the spot price is 79450, the futures price is 79250, and the historical quantile is 64.37% [1] - For aluminum (AL2509), the basis is 20, the basis rate is 0.10%, the spot price is 20780, the futures price is 20760, and the historical quantile is 56.87% [1] - For alumina (AO2509), the basis is -182, the basis rate is -5.30%, the spot price is 3428, the futures price is 3246, and the historical quantile is 7.04% [1] - For zinc (ZN2509), the basis is -185, the basis rate is -0.81%, the spot price is 22885, the futures price is 22700, and the historical quantile is 12.08% [1] - For tin (SN2509), the basis is -530, the basis rate is -0.20%, the spot price is 271630, the futures price is 271100, and the historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - For nickel (NISE09), the basis is -310, the basis rate is -0.25%, the spot price is 124360, the futures price is 124050, and the historical quantile is 40.00% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2509), the basis is 190, the basis rate is 1.49%, the spot price is 12920, the futures price is 12730, and the historical quantile is 44.42% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2509), the basis is -7620, the basis rate is -9.46%, the spot price is 80520, the futures price is 72900, and the historical quantile is 3.74% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2509), the basis is 375, the basis rate is 3.86%, the spot price is 10100, the futures price is 9725, and the historical quantile is 30.65% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2510), the basis is -3.7, the basis rate is -0.48%, the spot price is 777.3, the futures price is 773.6, and the historical quantile is 13.50% [1] - For silver (AG2510), the basis is -20.0, the basis rate is -0.21%, the spot price is 9372.0, the futures price is 9392.0, and the historical quantile is 41.60% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2509), the basis is -161.0, the basis rate is -5.33%, the spot price is 2860, the futures price is 3021.0, and the historical quantile is 10.40% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2509), the basis is 24.0, the basis rate is 0.81%, the spot price is 8210, the futures price is 8144.0, and the historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - For palm oil (P2509), the basis is 19.90%, the basis rate is 0.27%, the spot price is 8960, the futures price is 8936.0, and the historical quantile is 35.80% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM509), the basis is -105.0, the basis rate is -3.93%, the spot price is 2570, the futures price is 2675.0, and the historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI509), the basis is 83.0, the basis rate is 0.88%, the spot price is 9540, the futures price is 9457.0, and the historical quantile is 35.80% [1] - For corn (C2509), the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is 2.12%, the spot price is 2360, the futures price is 2311.0, and the historical quantile is 71.10% [1] - For corn starch (CS2509), the basis is 75.0, the basis rate is 2.81%, the spot price is 2740, the futures price is 2665.0, and the historical quantile is 34.40% [1] - For live pigs (H2509), the basis is -185.0, the basis rate is -1.29%, the spot price is 14200, the futures price is 14385.0, and the historical quantile is 39.50% [1] - For eggs (JD2509), the basis is -408.0, the basis rate is -11.25%, the spot price is 3220, the futures price is 3628.0, and the historical quantile is 9.40% [1] - For cotton (CF509), the basis is 1249.0, the basis rate is 8.81%, the spot price is 15419, the futures price is 14170.0, and the historical quantile is 86.10% [1] - For sugar (SR509), the basis is 244.0, the basis rate is 4.15%, the spot price is 6120, the futures price is 5876.0, and the historical quantile is 50.50% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX509), the basis is 132.6, the basis rate is 1.88%, the spot price is 7194.6, the futures price is 7062.0, and the historical quantile is 62.70% [1] - For PTA (TA509), the basis is -31.0, the basis rate is -0.63%, the spot price is 4936.0, the futures price is 4905.0, and the historical quantile is 41.20% [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2509), the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is 1.10%, the spot price is 4595.0, the futures price is 4545.0, and the historical quantile is 79.70% [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF509), the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is 0.74%, the spot price is 6655.0, the futures price is 6606.0, and the historical quantile is 58.30% [1] - For styrene (EB2509), the basis is -47.0, the basis rate is -0.62%, the spot price is 7540.0, the futures price is 7587.0, and the historical quantile is 18.60% [1] - For methanol (MA509), the basis is -36.5, the basis rate is -1.45%, the spot price is 2519.0, the futures price is 2482.5, and the historical quantile is 13.40% [1] - For urea (UR509), the basis is -13.0, the basis rate is -0.72%, the spot price is 1803.0, the futures price is 1790.0, and the historical quantile is 8.70% [1] - For LLDPE (L2509), the basis is -116.0, the basis rate is -1.56%, the spot price is 7456.0, the futures price is 7340.0, and the historical quantile is 2.20% [1] - For PP (PP2509), the basis is -55.0, the basis rate is -0.76%, the spot price is 7221.0, the futures price is 7166.0, and the historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - For PVC (V2509), the basis is -283.0, the basis rate is -5.27%, the spot price is 5373.0, the futures price is 5090.0, and the historical quantile is 9.60% [1] - For caustic soda (SH209), the basis is -43.3, the basis rate is -1.64%, the spot price is 2637.0, the futures price is 2593.8, and the historical quantile is 42.30% [1] - For LPG (PG2509), the basis is 401.0, the basis rate is 9.91%, the spot price is 4448.0, the futures price is 4047.0, and the historical quantile is 57.30% [1] - For asphalt (BU2509), the basis is 170.0, the basis rate is 4.70%, the spot price is 3785.0, the futures price is 3615.0, and the historical quantile is 79.30% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2509), the basis is -215.0, the basis rate is -1.73%, the spot price is 12415.0, the futures price is 12200.0, and the historical quantile is 11.00% [1] - For glass (FG509), the basis is -150.0, the basis rate is -12.38%, the spot price is 1362.0, the futures price is 1212.0, and the historical quantile is 12.60% [1] - For soda ash (SA509), the basis is -10.0, the basis rate is -0.70%, the spot price is 1440.0, the futures price is 1430.0, and the historical quantile is 26.68% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2509), the basis is -235.0, the basis rate is -1.53%, the spot price is 15585.0, the futures price is 15350.0, and the historical quantile is 82.29% [1] Group 4: Financial Futures - For stock index futures: - For IF2509.CFE, the basis is -11.2, the basis rate is -0.27%, the spot price is 4127.2, the futures price is 4116.0, and the historical quantile is 34.10% [1] - For IH2509.CFE, the basis is 1.3, the basis rate is 0.05%, the spot price is 2796.8, the futures price is 2795.5, and the historical quantile is 65.30% [1] - For IC2509.CFE, the basis is -83.6, the basis rate is -1.34%, the spot price is 6299.6, the futures price is 6216.0, and the historical quantile is 4.90% [1] - For IM2509.CFE, the basis is -100.8, the basis rate is -1.53%, the spot price is 6706.6, the futures price is 6605.8, and the historical quantile is 12.40% [1] - For bond futures: - For 2 - year bond (TS2509), the basis is 0.02, the basis rate is 0.02%, the spot price is 102.33, the futures price is 100.25, and the historical quantile is 30.80% [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2509), the basis is 0.07, the basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 105.59, the futures price is 100.61, and the historical quantile is 36.60% [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2509), the basis is 0.13, the basis rate is 0.12%, the spot price is 108.20, the futures price is 100.68, and the historical quantile is 31.10% [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2509), the basis is 0.50, the basis rate is 0.42%, the spot price is 133.73, the futures price is 118.12, and the historical quantile is 74.40% [1]

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头减仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 国泰君安多空头减仓 4000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -7,721.0 -2,625.0 -2,797.0 -8,546.0 -11,192.0 -3,451.0 -4,233.0 -12,000 -11,290.0 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given documents. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the 4300 - 4350 ringgit range, but may weaken after the end of the rebound. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9000 yuan. The US soybean oil industry's increased consumption and the expected stocking for the Indian Festival boost the palm oil and vegetable oil prices. In the short term, CBOT soybean oil may rise again. In the domestic market, the oil mills' urging for delivery may affect the spot basis quotes, but the traders' procurement cost supports the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but the overall trend is bearish. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally loose in supply and demand, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The import auction has limited impact. The supply of corn is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell. The transportation is affected by heavy rainfall, and the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. Wheat has a substitution advantage, but the corn price decline is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and low imports support the corn price. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the price fluctuates narrowly [7]. Meal - The US soybeans are at the bottom, and the Brazilian soybeans are firm. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain. The market sentiment is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the downstream prices are following the rise of cotton prices. The shipment of old cotton after the price increase brings some pressure, but the tight inventory problem cannot be solved before the new cotton is on the market. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate at a high level, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is on the market [12]. Pork - The current supply and demand of the pig market are weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The upside of the near - month contract is limited. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the high - temperature weather affects the egg production. The demand in the peak season is starting, and the prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [19]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Conditions Palm Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade palm oil was 8360 yuan on July 24, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan, down 42 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan on July 24, up 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan, down 60 yuan [1]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan, down 16 yuan [1]. Sugar - The futures price of SR2601 was 2668 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of SR2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. Corn - The futures price of C2509 was 2318 yuan on July 24, down 0.13%. The basis was 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn Starch - The futures price of CS2509 was 2669 yuan on July 24, down 0.22%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 6 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 57 yuan, up 8 yuan [7]. Cotton - The futures price of CF2509 was 14160 yuan/ton on July 24, down 0.14%. The futures price of CF2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.74 cents/pound, up 0.66% [12]. Eggs - The futures price of JD09 was 3636 yuan/500KG on July 24, down 0.03%. The futures price of JD08 was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis was - 299 yuan/500KG, up 1.97% [18]. Spot Market Conditions Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming was 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning's price was - 1590 yuan, down 1.40% [3]. Corn - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price at Shekou was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15431 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15563 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [12]. Eggs - The egg price in the producing area was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.15% [18]. Industry Conditions Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory was 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%. The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%. The import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 25.0% [12]. Eggs - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%. The price of culled chickens was 4.80 yuan/jin, up 4.35%. The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.25, up 6.64% [18].