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贵金属期现日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:11
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The future market may be more affected by US economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disruptions. In the short - term, the precious metals market will maintain a strong oscillation, with gold's upward momentum increasing above the 20 - day moving average, and long positions should continue to be held [1] - Driven by factors such as capital sentiment, the short - term silver price trend is strong and hard to predict the peak, but the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges, maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions and lock in profits in a timely manner [1] - Platinum and palladium, supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, form a linkage with the rising trend of gold, and their price centers continue to rise. Given the current RMB appreciation, the overseas market prices perform stronger than the domestic ones, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2604 contract rose 27.68 yuan/g to 1143.32 yuan/g, a 2.48% increase from January 23rd to January 26th - The AG2604 contract rose 2242 yuan/ten grams to 27207 yuan/ten grams, an 8.98% increase - The PT2606 contract rose 58.80 yuan/g to 744.70 yuan/g, an 8.57% increase - The PD2606 contract rose 36.85 yuan/g to 534.80 yuan/g, a 7.40% increase [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract rose 21.70 to 5004.80, a 0.44% increase - The COMEX silver主力 contract rose 0.63 to 103.89, a 0.61% increase - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract fell 197.60 to 2575.60 dollars/ounce, a 7.13% decrease - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract fell 54.50 to 1992.50, a 2.66% decrease [1] Spot Prices - London gold rose 28.57 to 5009.88, a 0.57% increase - London silver rose 0.53 to 103.87, a 0.52% increase - Platinum rose 106.00 to 2811.00 dollars/ounce, a 3.92% increase - Palladium rose 116.00 to 2092.00, a 5.87% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D rose 33.91 yuan/g to 1144.26 yuan/g, a 3.05% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D rose 2525 yuan/ten grams to 27513 yuan/ten grams, a 10.10% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 rose 52 yuan/g to 733 yuan/g, a 7.59% increase [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 increased 6.23 to 0.94, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 increased 283 to 306, at the 60.60% quantile of the past year - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold increased 6.87 to 5.08, at the 99.60% quantile of the past year - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver decreased 0.10 to - 0.02, at the 69.00% quantile of the past year [1] Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio fell 0.08 to 48.17, a 0.17% decrease - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio fell 2.67 to 42.02, a 5.96% decrease - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio fell 0.06 to 1.29, a 4.58% decrease - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio rose 0.02 to 1.39, a 1.09% increase [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.02 to 4.22, a 0.5% decrease - The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.04 to 3.56, a 1.1% decrease - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield fell 0.02 to 1.90, a 1.0% decrease - The US dollar index fell 0.45 to 97.05, a 0.47% decrease - The on - shore RMB exchange rate rose 0.0006 to 6.9492, a 0.01% increase [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory rose 1020 to 103050 ten grams, a 1.00% increase - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory fell 7280 to 573810, a 1.25% decrease - The COMEX gold inventory fell 202778 to 35941502, a 0.56% decrease - The COMEX silver inventory fell 1183026 to 415241837, a 0.28% decrease - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts fell 386 to 18845680, a 0.00% decrease - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 114262775 - The SPDR gold ETF position remained unchanged at 1087 - The SLV silver ETF position fell 115.58 to 15974, a 0.72% decrease [1]
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:06
股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88818051 E-Mail:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录: 股指期货: IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信国君大幅加仓超 4000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多头加仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多头加仓 3000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君空头加仓超 1000 手 | 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息: 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020-88818051 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 18, ...
《金融》日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:05
本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有 期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 本综合 保证。本报司 或其附属机构 并不代表 报告中的 定期货 下,报告内容仅供 的出价或询价,投 爱白区甘化专业 在在 有的奇仅供参考,很佳中的信息或所·表达的意思群不去意成的意思 我都你,我参考,很告中的信息或所·表达的意思我并不被感成了波斯 在他专业人生+ 摄影视员资 · 网络自拍 · 本彩经营员并不会感觉到了波斯 ·银鲁进行任何形式的发布 · 夏制 · 如引用 · 刊发 · 看主眼视处 · 任 不得对本 发期货 " -20 -3.0 -4.00 -5.00 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资销售业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月27日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | ...
《黑色》日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:02
| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月27日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即日 | 旅跌 | 基产 | 里立 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 61 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | -49 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | 71 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3143 | 3124 | 19 | 137 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3193 | 3169 | 24 | 87 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3219 | 3190 | 29 | 61 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3290 | 0 | -51 | 7C/ HP | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | -161 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...
《能源化工》日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].
《农产品》日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views Pig Industry - Spot prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall boost from the Laba Festival is limited. Supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation pattern [2] Meal Industry - US soybeans are showing a strong - side oscillation. The domestic spot market remains loose, but there is limited downward space for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5] Oil Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise; soybean oil may be boosted by the US biofuel policy; rapeseed oil has been pushed up by capital. The overall market shows different trends [6] Red Date Industry - After the Laba Festival, the spot market's trading enthusiasm will decline. The futures are in a low - valuation range, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival trading and inventory [8] Apple Industry - The Spring Festival stocking atmosphere has slightly improved, but the inventory reduction is slow. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory [16] Corn Industry - Short - term corn remains in a high - level oscillation, supported by pre - festival stocking and restricted by policy releases. The 2,300 pressure level needs to be watched [19] Egg Industry - The egg market supply is stable, and the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end. Attention should be paid to the terminal's digestion ability, and the egg price may correct [22] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation. Domestic cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area expectations, and attention should be paid to the support at 14,500 [23] Sugar Industry - International raw sugar is expected to oscillate in the low range of 14 - 15 cents. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, supported by cost and the overall commodity atmosphere [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis remains unchanged; the prices of "Pig 2605", "Pig 2603" and the "Pig 3 - 5 spread" have decreased; the main contract position has increased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in most regions have decreased, with only some regions showing an increase [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points has increased slightly; the weekly prices of white strips, piglets, sows and the weekly average slaughter weight have changed little; the weekly self - breeding profit has increased by 486.60% [2] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.30%, the futures price of "M2605" has increased by 0.65%, and the basis has increased by 6.69% [5] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.19%, the futures price of "RM2605" has increased by 1.52%, and the basis has decreased by 1.40% [5] - **Soybeans**: The spot prices of soybeans in Harbin and Jiangsu have increased; the futures prices of "Bean 1 main contract" and "Bean 2 main contract" have decreased [5] Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.05%, the futures price of "Y2605" has increased by 1.63%, and the basis has decreased by 8.82% [6] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong has increased by 1.90%, the futures price of "P2605" has increased by 2.04%, and the basis has decreased by 30.00% [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu has increased by 3.62%, the futures price of "OI605" has increased by 3.94%, and the basis has increased by 0.63% [6] Red Date Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Red Date 2605", "Red Date 2607" and "Red Date 2609" have decreased [8] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates have decreased slightly, while those of first - grade and second - grade red dates remain unchanged [8] Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: The price of the "Apple 2605" main contract has decreased by 0.72%, and that of the "Apple 2610" contract has decreased by 0.17% [12] - **Spot Indicators**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets have increased; the national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 3.11% [12] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of "Corn 2603" has decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port has increased by 0.43%, and the basis has increased by 34.00% [19] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2603" has decreased by 0.66%, the average price of corn starch has increased by 0.18%, and the basis has increased by 13.58% [19] Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the "Egg 03" and "Egg 04" contracts have increased [22] - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price and the egg - chick price have increased, and the egg - to - feed ratio and the breeding profit have also improved [22] Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2609" have decreased, and the ICE US cotton main contract has decreased slightly [23] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index of 3128B have increased, while the FC Index of M: 1% has decreased [23] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory has increased by 1.5%, and the import volume has increased by 49.5% [23] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Sugar 2605" and "Sugar 2609" have decreased, and the ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 1.54% [26] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased [26] - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has increased [26]
《有色》日报-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 00:58
产业期现日报 厅 广发期货 投资次拍业名资格:证监许可 【2011】1202号 2026年1月27日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 420300 | 403250 | 17050 | 4.23% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -100 | 0 | -100 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 420800 | 403750 | 17050 | 4.22% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -245.00 | -189.00 | -56.00 | -29.63% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6632.02 | -7675.70 | 1043.68 | 13.60% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.98 | 7.96 | - | - | | | 月间价差 ...
《农产品》日报-20260126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 06:24
Group 1: General Information - The reports are from Guangfa Futures and cover various industries including oils, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 26, 2026 [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soybean oil, the speculation of favorable US biodiesel policy boosts CBOT soybean oil, but domestic pre - Spring Festival factors limit continuous long positions. Supply is sufficient, and the basis quote may still decline in the short - term [1] - Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short correction. Domestic port inventory decline and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations support the market [1] - Rapeseed oil maintains a wide - range shock. The 05 contract faces hedging pressure, and the basis quote of reserve rapeseed oil slightly declines [1] Data Summary - Soybean oil: The price of Y2605 on January 23 was 8094 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day. The basis was 476 yuan, down 7.75% [1] - Palm oil: The price of P2605 on January 23 was 8910 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 53.85% [1] - Rapeseed oil: The price of OIROS on January 23 was 8991 yuan, down 0.12%. The basis remained unchanged [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US cotton maintains a low - level shock. Domestic cotton consumption is high due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills, and the basis is strong. The expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area provides support. Attention should be paid to the support around 14,500 yuan [2] Data Summary - Cotton 2605 on January 23 was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.62% [2] - Spot prices such as Xinjiang 3128B increased, and the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 9.36% [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thai sugar production is slow. Raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level shock between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level shock this week due to factors such as insufficient peak - season consumption and approaching the end of Spring Festival stocking [3] Data Summary - Sugar 2605 on January 23 was 5180 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 16.43% year - on - year [3] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market focuses on peak - season consumption. Sellers are actively shipping, and pre - holiday stocking may drive up spot prices. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upside is limited by hedging pressure [4] Data Summary - Jujube 2605 on January 23 was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The open interest decreased by 2.38% [4] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the arrival of the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the stocking atmosphere in some producing areas has improved. Good - quality apples have firm prices, while poor - quality ones face high inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to be strong due to low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and short - covering [5] Data Summary - Apple 2605 on January 23 was 9535 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% week - on - week [5] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of corn is relatively tight in the short - term, and pre - holiday stocking demand supports the price. However, continuous policy corn auctions and limited high - price transmission restrict the upside. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release intensity [7] Data Summary - Corn 2603 on January 23 was 2300 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The open interest increased by 2.33% [7] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices are strengthening again, but the supply pressure will increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock as the main focus is on the post - holiday off - season [10] Data Summary - The main hog contract on January 23 was 1685 yuan, up 5.31%. The slaughter volume increased by 1.79% [10] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are expected to be strong due to macro factors and biodiesel policy. Domestic supply is abundant, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low, and the meal price is expected to be in a shock range [13] Data Summary - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal on January 23 was 3080 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 increased by 5.45% [13] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Egg production is stable and sufficient. The demand may weaken as the Spring Festival stocking nears the end and group purchases decrease. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price eggs [14] Data Summary - The egg 03 contract on January 23 was 3046 yuan/500KG, down 1.58%. The basis increased by 26.72% [14]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20260126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 06:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oil and Fat Industry**: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - **Cotton Industry**: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - **Sugar Industry**: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - **Jujube Industry**: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - **Apple Industry**: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch Industry**: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - **Pig Industry**: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - **Meal Industry**: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - **Basis**: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - **Inventory**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - **Soybean**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].
全品种价差日报-20260126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 05:34
| 硅铁 (SF603) 5652 26 0.46% 5678 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 58.10% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐 (SM603) 2950 5856 94 1161% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | 4:07% 螺纹钢 (RB2605) 3270 3142 128 HRB40020mm:上海 | 56.30% | | | -15 热卷(HC2605) 3290 3305 -0.45% Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | 795 રેર 6:95% 铁矿石 (12605) 850 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 44.10% | | | 1734 12 0 71% 焦炭 (J2605) 1722 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7,CSR60,MT7:日照港 | 71.92% | | | 焦煤 (JM2605) 1156 1157 -1 -0.09% 折算价: S1.3 G75主焦 (蒙5) 沙河驿 | 31.40% | | | 品种/合约 现货价格 期货价格 基差 县差率 历 ...