Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may oscillate above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital movements. [1] Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar. US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. Domestic cotton has a bearish factor realized, and short - term prices will remain high and volatile. [2] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reached a seven - week high. Global sugar supply surplus is expected to narrow. Domestic sugar prices are supported but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and will maintain high - level volatility. [4] Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory reduction pressure is large. Red date futures prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. [5][9] Apples - The apple spot market shows structural differentiation. Cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, supporting the futures price. Attention should be paid to Qingming replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes. [13][17] Corn - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are steady. Demand from ports and deep - processing enterprises is recovering, but feed enterprises' demand is weak. Corn prices will remain high and volatile. [20][22] Meal - The US soybean market is回调, but the decline is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain high - level volatility, waiting for the planting intention report. [24] Pigs - Slaughter volume is increasing, but the supply is large. The market is waiting for a lower entry point. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out. [27] Eggs - Egg supply may decline slightly, and demand is average. Egg prices will maintain a low - level volatile pattern. [29] Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and basis decreased by 2.02%. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, and 2609 decreased by 1.61%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98%. [2] - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased, while FC Index M 1% increased significantly. The basis of 3128B - 05 and 3128B - 09 increased. [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, and imports increased by 49.5%. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, and 2609 decreased by 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00%. [4] - **Spot Market**: Nanning and Kunming spot prices decreased, and the basis increased. Imported sugar prices increased. [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 4.69%, sales decreased by 27.39%, and industrial inventory increased by 17.03%. [4] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: Red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, 2607 decreased by 2.61%, and 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 5.41%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.33%. The open interest decreased by 6.05%. [5] - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou spot prices remained stable, and the basis increased. [5] Apples - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, and 2610 increased by 0.24%. The 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59%. [13] - **Spot Market**: The basis decreased by 6.35%. [13] - **Industry Situation**: National cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.27%. [13] Corn - **Corn**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48%. [20] - **Corn Starch**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.33%, the basis increased by 386.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. [20] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.30%, the futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. The import crushing profit decreased by 23.3%. [24] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price decreased by 0.75%, the futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28%. The import crushing profit decreased by 75.34%. [24] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 706.25%, the 2605 price decreased by 2.06%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The open interest increased by 1.13%. [27] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. [27] - **Industry Situation**: Slaughter volume increased by 0.80%, the white - striped pork price decreased by 3.01%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.98%. [27] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The 04 contract increased by 0.65%, and the 05 contract increased by 0.53%. The 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. [29] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.80%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, and the culled - hen price increased by 5.26%. [29] - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92%. [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a premium for non - standard specifications of rebar. The steel market is in a state of seasonal de - stocking. The supply and demand of steel are seasonally increasing, and the inventory is seasonally decreasing, with the supply - demand basically balanced. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, domestic demand is slightly weak, but exports are acceptable. After the end of last week's production restrictions, production will rebound significantly this week, which will test the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose first and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still have an impact, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties have supported the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipments from Guinea have increased significantly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the shipment growth. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. Among the four major mines, FMG and BHP have significant month - on - month increases. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there is no subsequent rainfall in Western Australia. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and the impact of steel mill overhauls has declined significantly. It is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory has increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight de - stocking, but the high absolute value of inventory will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill resumptions, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal. After the price cut, the coking profit declined. During the Two Sessions, the coking enterprise's operation decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke loss. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production increased, and the coking production increased synchronously. With the cost push, the coke price also has a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, the coal mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while the coking enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures, and the post - holiday restocking demand is gradually picking up. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, causing continuous surges in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production will increase, the steel price rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, the steel mills are reducing inventory, while the coking plants and ports are accumulating inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the geopolitical conflict causes significant fluctuations in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products. Energy inflation and substitution expectations will support coking coal. The spot reaction lags, and it is necessary to focus on macro - impacts and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, and commodities generally fell. On the spot side, the manufacturer's inventory pressure is limited, and production is mainly for order fulfillment. Fundamentally, last week's ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production, and Shengjin reached full production after resuming production this week. Qinghai is mainly for order fulfillment. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the manufacturer's participation decreased. In the future, the ferrosilicon production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the operating rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, the daily output is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, the demand support has weakened, the manufacturers are mainly for order fulfillment, and exports are affected and difficult to conclude transactions. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, the raw coal price and downstream demand are supported, and the electricity prices in the production areas are differentiated, but the profit levels have all been repaired. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both increasing, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trending market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the main ferromanganese contract declined. Commodities generally fell. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, ferromanganese has performed stronger than ferrosilicon recently, and the price difference between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel tenders have not been priced yet, and the market sentiment is relatively cautious. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is stable, Yunnan has resumed production due to electricity price subsidies, and the valley - electricity costs in Guangxi, Guizhou and other places have increased. The manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production; it is expected that there will be new ferromanganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at the port are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transactions are difficult. The overall demand is gradually weakening. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the resumption of production in the production area. The conflict between the US and Iran has caused an increase in costs such as freight and mining. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferromanganese are both increasing, and the cost is rising, but the supply growth still suppresses the price increase height, and there is also no driving force for a trending decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3140 yuan/ton, 3165 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 3 yuan/ton, and - 1 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil are 3310 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton with no change. The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared with the previous value [1]. - The rebar production is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared with the previous value. Among them, the electric - furnace production is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2% compared with the previous value; the converter production is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9% compared with the previous value [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared with the previous value [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder are 925.3 yuan/ton, 849.0 yuan/ton, 845.2 yuan/ton, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2 yuan/ton, - 4.4 yuan/ton, - 4.3 yuan/ton, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder is 114.3 yuan/ton, 38.0 yuan/ton, 34.2 yuan/ton, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +3.3 yuan/ton, +1.1 yuan/ton, +1.2 yuan/ton, and +1.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder at Rizhao Port are 951.0 yuan/ton, 793.0 yuan/ton, 823.0 yuan/ton, and 738.0 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, and - 4.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared with the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly pig iron production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value [4]. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade - 1 wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton with no change. The 05 and 09 contracts of coke are -

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1][2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory structural contradiction that previously drove copper price increases has basically been resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to follow the changes in the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main focus on the pressure around 98,000 yuan [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to operate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support between 22,800 - 23,000 yuan [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market should maintain a short - term bearish strategy on rallies. For aluminum, in the short term, it will oscillate at high levels with news changes. The LME spot shortage and high domestic inventory create internal and external driving differentiation, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to continue to weaken. In the long term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to closely monitor inventory inflection points and downstream resumption progress, with the main Shanghai aluminum contract expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term raw material cost at a high level strongly supports the ADC12 price, but demand follows slowly and the negative feedback effect of high prices is gradually emerging. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - The macro sentiment exerts pressure, but the raw material end has contradictions and supports the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation. The bottom support is strong, but the upward driving force needs to be further transmitted to the real end. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 132,000 - 142,000 yuan [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment has a certain suppressing effect, the raw material end is tight with strong cost support, and there is a game between supply and demand as steel mills increase production and demand gradually recovers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro sentiment is weak and exerts pressure, while the actual fundamentals of lithium carbonate are resilient, and demand remains optimistic but lacks further momentum. In the short term, the unilateral driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust widely around the macro and news, with the main reference range of 146,000 - 158,000 yuan [15][16]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures price continues to decline significantly due to overall sentiment. The cost end may support the bottom of industrial silicon. The supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see, and consider trying long positions at around 8,100 yuan [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot market is stable, and the futures price drops significantly with market sentiment, reflecting the pessimistic expectation of inventory accumulation. The industry still faces oversupply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If you want to participate, you can consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and setting stop - losses [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 369,500 yuan/ton, down 2.85% [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses**: The import loss is - 6,076.10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 270 yuan/ton, down 58.82% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17,637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production in February was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.30%, social inventory increased by 2.10%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 3.09%, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 98,990 yuan/ton, down 1.23% [4]. - **Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses**: The import profit is 363 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio (delayed by one day) is 7.91 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in February was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13%; the import volume in December was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 5.46%, bonded area inventory decreased by 4.18%, SHFE inventory increased by 1.96%, LME inventory increased by 1.13%, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 23,200 yuan/ton, down 2.81% [7]. - **Price Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The import loss is - 2,774 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.26 [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in February was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99%; the import volume in December was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased by 5.19%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.30% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 24,510 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [9]. - **Price Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 3,420 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.34 [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between AL 2603 - 2604 is - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in February was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63%; domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.33%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.84% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,000 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 23,595 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in February was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 5.56% [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 138,000 yuan/ton, down 1.39% [11]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [11]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,150 yuan/ton, up 0.95% [11]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is 1,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, down 7.45%; the import volume was 23,394 tons, up 84.63%. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.49% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [13]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) is 80 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [13]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07%; the import volume was 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 1.58% [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2605 is 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,720 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in February was 83,090 tons, down 15.13%; the demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in February was 28,353 tons, down 4.76% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58%; the national operating rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.18%, and the warehouse receipt inventory (daily) decreased by 1.40% [17]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 45,500 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract price is 40,105 yuan, down 3.76% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%; the import volume was 0.00 million tons, down 100.00% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory was 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%; the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not mentioned in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF603) spot price is 5898, futures price is 5796, with a basis of 102, a basis rate of 1.76%, and a historical quantile of 70.60% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM603) spot price is 6220, futures price is 6138, with a basis of 82, a basis rate of 1.34%, and a historical quantile of 42.50% [1] - Rebar (RB2605): Information incomplete. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2605) spot price is 3290, futures price is 3310, with a basis of - 20, a basis rate of - 0.60%, and a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - Iron ore (I2605) spot price is 845, futures price is 811, with a basis of 34, a basis rate of 4.22%, and a historical quantile of 29.10% [1] - Coke (J2605) spot price is 1734, futures price is 1722, with a basis of 13, a basis rate of 0.74%, and a historical quantile of 73.34% [1] - Coking coal (JM2605) spot price is 1247, futures price is 1157, with a basis of 91, a basis rate of 7.83%, and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2604) spot price is 98990, futures price is 98590, with a basis of 400, a basis rate of 0.41%, and a historical quantile of 86.45% [1] - Aluminum (AL2605) spot price is 24510, futures price is 24800, with a basis of - 290, a basis rate of - 1.11%, and a historical quantile of 6.66% [1] - Alumina (AO2605) spot price is 2720, futures price is 3048, with a basis of - 328, a basis rate of - 10.77%, and a historical quantile of 1.54% [1] - Zinc (ZN2604) spot price is 23130, futures price is 23325, with a basis of - 195, a basis rate of - 0.84%, and a historical quantile of 16.25% [1] - Tin (SN2604) spot price is 369500, futures price is 370000, with a basis of - 500, a basis rate of - 0.14%, and a historical quantile of 37.08% [1] - Nickel (NISEOR) spot price is 134700, futures price is 135200, with a basis of - 500, a basis rate of - 0.37%, and a historical quantile of 26.87% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2605) spot price is 14350, futures price is 14020, with a basis of 500, a basis rate of 3.57%, and a historical quantile of 86.90% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2605) spot price is 155500, futures price is 150120, with a basis of 5380, a basis rate of 3.58%, and a historical quantile of 97.35% [1] - Industrial silicon (SISEO5) spot price is 9200, futures price is 8375, with a basis of 855, a basis rate of 9.85%, and a historical quantile of 55.97% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2604) spot price is 1111.7, futures price is 1113.52, with a basis of - 1.8, a basis rate of - 0.16%, and a historical quantile of 47.10% [1] - Silver (AG2606) spot price is 19966.0, futures price is 19980.0, with a basis of - 14.0, a basis rate of - 0.07%, and a historical quantile of 68.40% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2605) spot price is 3290, futures price is 3036.0, with a basis of 254.0, a basis rate of 8.37%, and a historical quantile of 67.90% [1] - Fourth - grade soybean oil (ASEO2) spot price is 8770, futures price is 8540.0, with a basis of 230.0, a basis rate of 2.69%, and a historical quantile of 49.50% [1] - Palm oil (P2605) spot price is 9680, futures price is 9692.0, with a basis of - 12.0, a basis rate of - 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 23.30% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM605) spot price is 2470, futures price is 2443.0, with a basis of 27.0, a basis rate of 1.11%, and a historical quantile of 51.00% [1] - Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (Oleos) spot price is 10280, futures price is 9780.0, with a basis of 500.0, a basis rate of 5.11%, and a historical quantile of 91.40% [1] - Corn (C2605) spot price is 2420, futures price is 2382.0, with a basis of 38.0, a basis rate of 1.60%, and a historical quantile of 54.60% [1] - Corn starch (CS2605) spot price is 2850, futures price is 2721.0, with a basis of 129.0, a basis rate of 4.74%, and a historical quantile of 66.00% [1] - Live pigs (H2605) spot price is 10100, futures price is 10475.0, with a basis of - 375.0, a basis rate of - 3.58%, and a historical quantile of 30.20% [1] - Eggs (JD2605) spot price is 3110, futures price is 3400.0, with a basis of - 290.0, a basis rate of - 8.53%, and a historical quantile of 17.30% [1] - Cotton (CF605) spot price is 16650, futures price is 15210.0, with a basis of 1440.0, a basis rate of 9.47%, and a historical quantile of 95.40% [1] - White sugar (SR605) spot price is 5470, futures price is 5343.0, with a basis of 127.0, a basis rate of 2.38%, and a historical quantile of 16.60% [1] - Apples (AP605) spot price is 9800, futures price is 10121.0, with a basis of - 321.0, a basis rate of - 3.17%, and a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - Red dates (CJ605) spot price is 7900, futures price is 8795.0, with a basis of - 895.0, a basis rate of - 10.18%, and a historical quantile of 45.10% [1] Energy and Chemicals - p - Xylene (PX605) spot price is 9906.9, futures price is 9874.0, with a basis of 32.9, a basis rate of 0.33%, and a historical quantile of 39.50% [1] - PTA (TA605) spot price is 6710.0, futures price is 6790.0, with a basis of - 80.0, a basis rate of - 1.18%, and a historical quantile of 24.20% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2605) spot price is 4745.0, futures price is 4849.0, with a basis of - 104.0, a basis rate of - 2.4%, and a historical quantile of 17.60% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF606) spot price is 8285.0, futures price is 8182.0, with a basis of 103.0, a basis rate of 1.26%, and a historical quantile of 69.30% [1] - Styrene (EB2604) spot price is 9980.0, futures price is 9968.0, with a basis of 12.0, a basis rate of 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 28.60% [1] - Methanol (MA605) spot price is 2925.0, futures price is 2912.0, with a basis of 13.0, a basis rate of 0.49%, and a historical quantile of 53.20% [1] - Urea (UR605) spot price is 1880.0, futures price is 1855.0, with a basis of 25.0, a basis rate of 1.35%, and a historical quantile of 25.00% [1] - LLDPE (L2605) spot price is 8360.0, futures price is 8431.0, with a basis of - 71.0, a basis rate of - 0.84%, and a historical quantile of 8.00% [1] - PP (PP2605) spot price is 8750.0, futures price is 8628.0, with a basis of 122.0, a basis rate of 1.41%, and a historical quantile of 62.70% [1] - PVC (V2605) spot price is 5680.0, futures price is 5735.0, with a basis of - 55.0, a basis rate of - 0.95%, and a historical quantile of 70.10% [1] - Caustic soda (SHEOS) spot price is 2140.6, futures price is 2442.0, with a basis of - 301.4, a basis rate of - 12.34%, and a historical quantile of 17.00% [1] - LPG (PG2604) spot price is 6258.0, futures price is 5766.0, with a basis of 492.0, a basis rate of 8.53%, and a historical quantile of 67.30% [1] - Asphalt (BU2606) spot price is 4090.0, futures price is 4400.0, with a basis of - 310.0, a basis rate of - 7.05%, and a historical quantile of 1.50% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2605) spot price is 15800.0, futures price is 15260.0, with a basis of 540.0, a basis rate of 3.54%, and a historical quantile of 85.60% [1] - Glass (FG605) spot price is 968.0, futures price is 1066.0, with a basis of - 98.0, a basis rate of - 10.12%, and a historical quantile of 40.00% [1] - Soda ash (SA605) spot price is 1201.0, futures price is 1211.0, with a basis of - 10.0, a basis rate of - 0.83%, and a historical quantile of 56.21% [1] - Pure benzene (BZ2604) spot price is 8400.0, futures price is 8154.0, with a basis of 246.0, a basis rate of 3.02%, and a historical quantile of 98.80% [1] - Propylene (PL2605) spot price is 8045.0, futures price is 8313.0, with a basis of - 268.0, a basis rate of - 3.22%, and a historical quantile of 8.80% [1] - Bottle chips (PR2605) spot price is 9012.0, futures price is 8550.0, with a basis of 462.0, a basis rate of 5.40%, and a historical quantile of 99.10% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2605) spot price is 16250.0, futures price is 16400.0, with a basis of - 150.0, a basis rate of - 0.92%, and a historical quantile of 82.18% [1] Financial Instruments - IF2603.CFE spot price is 4658.3324, futures price is 4651.4, with a basis of - 6.9324, a basis rate of - 0.15%, and a historical quantile of 46.00% [1] - IH2603.CFE spot price is 2961.4264, futures price is 2958.6, with a basis of - 2.8264, a basis rate of - 0.10%, and a historical quantile of 40.30% [1] - IC2603.CFE spot price is 8096.4276, futures price is 8086.0, with a basis of - 10.4276, a basis rate of - 0.13%, and a historical quantile of 67.70% [1] - IM2603.CFE spot price is 8096.5948, futures price is 8080.4, with a basis of - 16.1948, a basis rate of - 0.20%, and a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2606) spot price is 100.09, futures price is 102.50, with a basis of 0.03, a basis rate of 0.03%, and a historical quantile of 40.70% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2606) spot price is 100.21, futures price is 105.99, with a basis of 0.05, a basis rate of 0.04%, and a historical quantile of 36.10% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2606) spot price is 99.89, futures price is 108.26, with a basis of 0.09, a basis rate of 0.08%, and a historical quantile of 28.30% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2606) spot price is 122.05, futures price is 110.96, with a basis of 0.71, a basis rate of 0.64%, and a historical quantile of

Report Information - The report is a daily report on capital flow and changes in positions of key seats, with the data date being March 18, 2026, and the release date being March 19, 2026 [1][2] Capital Flow - Presented the inflow and outflow ratio of funds for various varieties, but no specific data was given in the text [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - For various futures products, the net positions and daily position changes of key seats such as J.P. Morgan, Qiankun Futures, UBS Futures, CITIC Futures, and Guotai Junan are presented in percentage terms. For example, J.P. Morgan's net positions and daily position changes for products like Apple 300, Standard Oil, and Peanuts are shown; Qiankun Futures' for Methanol, Iron Ore, etc.; UBS Futures' for Stainless Steel, 20 - gauge products, etc.; CITIC Futures' and Guotai Junan's for relevant products. However, the text does not provide specific numerical data for all products [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 1. **Futures Index Spread Report** - The report presents the current situation of futures index spreads including IF, IH, IC, and IM, with details on full - historical and 1 - year historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day [1]. 2. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report** - It shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of IRR, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures such as TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report** - The Fed's "hawkish" attitude in the interest rate decision has hit the precious metals market. Gold may fall to the $4650 low in February if it fails to recover above the 60 - day moving average. Silver is in weak shock and seeking support around $70. Platinum is also in weak shock and may fall below $2000, and palladium performs weaker than platinum [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. **Futures Index Spread Report** - **IF Spread**: The current period - spot spread is - 6.93, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 40.30% and a change of - 2.83 from the previous day. For inter - period spreads, the spreads of different months have various values and historical quantiles [1]. - **IH Spread**: The period - spot spread is - 1.25, and the inter - period spreads also show different values and historical quantiles [1]. - **IC Spread**: The period - spot spread is 5.60, and the inter - period spreads have corresponding values and historical quantiles [1]. - **IM Spread**: The period - spot spread is 62.50%, and the inter - period spreads have different values and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and IC/IF are presented with their current values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. 2. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report** - **IRR and Basis**: For different Treasury bond futures varieties (TS, TF, T, TL), the IRR and basis values, their changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles are provided [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different months (current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - distant quarter, next quarter - distant quarter) for each variety are given, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report** - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of domestic precious metal futures (AU2604, AG2606, PT2606, PD2606) on March 18 and 17, their changes, and percentage changes are shown [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of foreign precious metal futures (COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, NYMEX palladium) on March 18 and 17, their changes, and percentage changes are presented [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of precious metals (London gold, London silver, spot platinum, spot palladium, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D, Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995) and their changes are provided [3]. - **Basis**: The basis values of different precious metals (gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, London gold - COMEX gold, London silver - COMEX silver), their changes, and 1 - year historical quantiles are given [3]. - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium are presented with their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The values, changes, and percentage changes of 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and on - shore RMB exchange rate are shown [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventory and position data of precious metals in different exchanges (Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX) and ETFs (SPRD gold EFFG, SLV silver ETF) and their changes are provided [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision showed a relatively "hawkish" attitude, which short - term continuously hit the sentiment of precious metals. The gold price fell below the 60 - day moving average. If it cannot recover, it may decline to the low of $4,650 in February. It is recommended to buy at - the - money put options. Silver, under the pressure of a strong dollar, oscillated weakly in tandem with gold and sought support around $70. Platinum followed gold and silver and maintained a weak oscillation, or may fall back below $2,000. Palladium performed weaker than platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Futures Settlement Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1,113.52 yuan/gram on March 18, down 2.68 yuan or 0.24% from March 17 [2] - AG2606 contract closed at 19,980 yuan/kilogram on March 18, down 328 yuan or 1.62% from March 17 [2] - PT2606 contract closed at 548.00 yuan on March 18, down 4.70 yuan or 0.85% from March 17 [2] - PD2606 contract closed at 402.80 yuan/gram on March 18, down 4.95 yuan or 1.21% from March 17 [2] Overseas Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4,823.90 on March 18, down 187.40 or 3.74% from March 17 [2] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 75.42 on March 18, down 4.04 or 5.08% from March 17 [2] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2,019.10 dollars/ounce on March 18, down 104.20 or 4.91% from March 17 [2] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1,494.00 on March 18, down 124.00 or 7.66% from March 17 [2] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4,813.53 on March 18, down 193.10 or 3.86% from the previous day [2] - London silver was at 75.36 on March 18, down 4.00 or 5.04% from the previous day [2] - Spot platinum was at 2,021.65 dollars/ounce on March 18, down 135.35 or 6.27% from the previous day [2] - Spot palladium was at 1,476.32 on March 18, down 152.68 or 9.37% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1,111.73 yuan/gram on March 18, down 3.75 or 0.34% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 19,966 yuan/kilogram on March 18, down 364 or 1.79% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 541 yuan/gram on March 18, down 8 or 1.45% from the previous day [2] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 1.79 on March 18, down 1.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [2] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was - 14 on March 18, down 36 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [2] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 9.13 on March 18, up 4.16 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 75.60% [2] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was - 0.37 on March 18, down 0.15 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 21.70% [2] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 63.96 on March 18, up 0.89 or 1.42% from the previous value [2] - SHFE gold/silver ratio was 55.73 on March 18, up 0.77 or 1.40% from the previous value [2] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.35 on March 18, up 0.04 or 2.99% from the previous value [2] - GZFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.36 on March 18, up 0.00 or 0.37% from the previous value [2] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26 on March 18, up 0.06 or 1.4% from the previous value [2] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76 on March 18, up 0.08 or 2.2% from the previous value [2] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.86 on March 18, up 0.03 or 1.6% from the previous value [2] - US dollar index was 100.30 on March 18, up 0.74 or 0.74% from the previous value [2] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9016 on March 18, up 0.0181 or 0.26% from the previous value [2] Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 106,842 on March 18, up 1,530 or 1.45% from the previous value [2] - SHFE silver inventory was 346,920 kilograms on March 18, down 6,843 or 1.93% from the previous value [2] - COMEX gold inventory was 32,140,344 on March 18, down 95,732 or 0.30% from the previous value [2] - COMEX silver inventory was 335,075,635 on March 18, down 2,817,058 or 0.83% from the previous value [2] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16,658,999 on March 18, down 101,536 or 0.61% from the previous value [2] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 78,903,368 on March 18, unchanged from the previous value [2] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1,067 on March 18, down 2.57 or 0.24% from the previous value [2] - SLV silver ETF position was 15,264 on March 18, down 125.35 or 0.81% from the previous value [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may fluctuate slightly above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital flow and spot market conditions [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar. US cotton is expected to be volatile and strong. In China, the issuance of processing trade quotas has been implemented, and cotton prices are expected to be highly volatile in the short term [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have reached a seven - week high. The global sugar supply surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to narrow. In China, sugar prices are supported by policies but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and are expected to be highly volatile [4]. Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the red date futures price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5][9]. Apples - The apple spot market is structurally differentiated. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, which supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to holiday replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [13][17]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are stable. The demand side has mixed performance, and corn prices are expected to be high and volatile. Corn starch prices are affected by corn prices [20][22]. Meal - The US soybean market is under pressure but supported by oil prices. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be highly volatile, waiting for the planting intention report [24]. Pigs - The slaughter volume has increased, but the supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and there may be further declines in the near - month contracts [27]. Eggs - The egg supply may decline slightly, and the demand is average. Egg prices are expected to be low and volatile [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and the basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and the basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and the basis decreased by 2.02% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is affected by crude oil, and domestic palm oil is under pressure. US biodiesel policy affects soybean oil, and vegetable oil market positive factors affect rapeseed oil [1]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, cotton 2609 decreased by 1.61%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98% [2]. - **Market Analysis**: ICE cotton is affected by the US dollar, and the issuance of Chinese processing trade quotas has an impact on the market. The off - season demand and high cotton prices affect the market sentiment [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, sugar 2609 decreased by 1.21%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00% [4]. - **Market Analysis**: ICE raw sugar is affected by oil prices and market speculation. In China, the increase in planting area and rainfall affects production, and sales data and imports affect prices [4]. Red Dates - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, red date 2607 decreased by 2.61%, red date 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The open interest decreased by 6.05% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: In the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the market sentiment is weak [5][9]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, apple 2610 increased by 0.24%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59% [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market is structurally differentiated, and the cold - storage inventory is at a low level, which supports the futures price [13][17]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, corn 2605 decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. Corn starch 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the basis increased by 386.00% [20]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn prices in the Northeast and North China are stable, and the demand side has mixed performance. Corn starch prices are affected by corn prices [20][22]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30%, futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. Rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.75%, futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28% [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The US soybean market is under pressure but supported by oil prices. Domestic soybean meal is affected by cost and supply concerns [24]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, the main contract's basis increased by 706.25%, pig 2605 decreased by 2.06%, pig 2603 decreased by 6.04%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.13% [27]. - **Market Analysis**: The slaughter volume has increased, but the supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is concerned about secondary fattening and frozen product storage [27]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, egg 04 increased by 0.65%, egg 05 increased by 0.53%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92% [29]. - **Market Analysis**: The egg supply may decline slightly, and the demand is average. The market is waiting for the Qingming Festival to boost prices [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a price increase for non - standard specifications of rebar. Supply and demand in the steel industry are seasonally increasing, and inventories are seasonally decreasing, with basic balance in supply and demand. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, and domestic demand is slightly weak while exports are okay. After the end of production restrictions last week, production will rebound significantly this week, testing the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still cause disturbances, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipment from Guinea increased significantly month - on - month, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there will be no rainfall in Western Australia in the future. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and the impact of steel mill maintenance has declined significantly. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, but the high absolute inventory value will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill复产, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures prices fell from high levels. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills started the first - round price cut for coke on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal. After the price cut, coking profits declined. During the Two Sessions, coke enterprise start - up decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output increased, and coke production increased synchronously. With the cost push, coke prices also have a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The supply and demand of coke are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, energy inflation and substitution expectations will support it. The spot reaction lags, and it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the main silicon iron contract fell significantly, and commodities generally declined. On the spot side, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is limited, and they mainly produce according to orders. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon iron production increased slightly month - on - month last week. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production. After resuming production this week, Shengjin reached full production, and Qinghai mainly produces according to orders. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the participation of manufacturers decreased. In the future, the silicon iron production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the start - up rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, it is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, and the demand support has weakened. The export is affected, and it is difficult to conclude transactions in the short term, and the overall demand is marginally weakening. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, and the raw coal price and downstream demand are both supported. Affected by factors such as production area复产, the price of silicon ore fluctuates. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon iron both increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trend - type market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200. - Yesterday, the main silicon manganese contract declined. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, silicon manganese has been stronger than silicon iron recently, and the price difference between silicon iron and silicon manganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel procurement prices have not been set, and the market sentiment is cautious. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon manganese supply increased slightly month - on - month. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained stable, and production in Yunnan resumed due to electricity price subsidies. In Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, the valley - electricity cost increased, and manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production. It is expected that there will be new silicon manganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at ports are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transaction is difficult. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict causing an increase in shipping and mining costs. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon manganese both increase, and the supply growth rate restricts the price increase height, while there is also no driving force for a trend - type decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260, 3200, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3140, 3165, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290, 3220, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3310, 3311, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of - 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton, with no change. The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, with no change. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. - The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The output of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared to the previous value. - The rebar output is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared to the previous value, among which the electric - furnace output is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2%, and the converter output is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9%. - The hot - rolled coil output is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous value. - The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared to the previous value. - The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 925.3, 849.0, 845.2, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2, - 4.4, - 4.3, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 114.3, 38.0, 34.2, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 3.3, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.2 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0, an increase of 1.0 or 3.2% compared to the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0, an increase of 0.5 or 2.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 951.0, 793.0, 823.0, and 738.0 yuan/wet ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0, - 4.0, - 4.0, and - 4.0 yuan/wet ton compared to the previous value. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared to the previous value. - The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared to the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton, with no change. The coke 05 and 09 contracts are - 11 and 1803 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 and - 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 13 and - 69 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 2.5% compared to the previous value. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts are 1722 and 1282 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 and - 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 74 and - 14 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, with no change. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines is 873.9 tons, an increase of 12.6 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous value, and the clean coal output is 445.9 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 0.64% compared to the previous value [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, with no change [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 984.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 100.4 tons, a decrease of 9.9 tons or 8.9% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 687

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - Macro situation is gradually stabilizing, and stock index fluctuations are converging [1] - Overseas conflict situation has eased, and overall macro risk appetite has stabilized. The next round of China-US consultations will be held soon, and the market may expect the two countries to reach new consensus [4] - A-share major indexes have entered a phase of volatility with decreasing volatility, and the market style switches frequently. Energy is one of the few sectors maintaining a strong upward trend. Technically, there is no sign of a breakthrough trend yet. Fundamental economic data is greatly affected by holidays, and it is necessary to continue to wait and observe the recovery rhythm. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach and combine with a small amount of bull spread options [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly with the index. IF and IH increased by 0.18% and decreased by 1.15% respectively; IC and IM decreased by 1.39% and 0.33% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF decreased by 2,288 lots, those of IH increased by 193 lots, those of IC decreased by 4,868 lots, and those of IM decreased by 4,345 lots. As of this Friday, the optimal rollover contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were all the 2604 contracts [10] - **A-shares**: This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.64% [10] - **Basis and Cross-variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts fluctuated neutrally, and the market's long and short forces were relatively balanced. The current basis of the IF main contract was -11.14 points, that of the IH main contract was 0.15 points, that of the IC main contract was -26.0 points, and that of the IM main contract was -27.29 points. This week, the futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [10] - **Industry Sector Performance**: This week, most of the Wind primary industry indexes declined, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively; the top falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively [13] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly shrank [14] - **Spot-futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis fluctuated and declined, and seasonality gradually emerged [19] - **Inter-period Spread Trend**: The text provides the inter-period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM [24] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: The futures ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of some cross-varieties decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [32] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long-short ratio has rebounded [40] - **Short Rollover Costs**: The annualized short rollover cost of the next-month contract was the lowest [47] 2. Macro Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High-frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, the M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rates accelerated by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. The credit of the enterprise sector increased significantly year-on-year. From January to December 2025, the national fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline still expanding. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The automobile production and consumption showed that the full-steel tire and semi-steel tire increased by 36.73% and 39.47% respectively compared with last week. From January to February, exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars [59] - **Real Estate**: The land transactions in first-tier cities significantly rebounded. In 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. At the beginning of 2026, the commercial housing transactions slightly rebounded [60][67] - **Consumption**: The decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the Spring Festival had a significant boost to the consumer price index [72] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The steel tire operating rate continued to rise, and automobile sales declined in January [76] - **Foreign Trade**: From January to February, foreign trade had a good start, and the global manufacturing cycle was on the rise [84] 3. Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 13, the SHIBOR overnight interest rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. Due to the maturity of 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 101.1 billion yuan. This week, A-share funds had a cumulative net active sell-off of 314.79 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly shrank to 2.48 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance increased, and the stock ETF funds had a net outflow of 1.0503 billion yuan [91][92]