Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Investment Rating Not provided 1.2 Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, but previous phased negatives are mostly out. It's recommended to close out previous short positions, wait and see in the short - term, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the industry's supply - demand situation remains weak in the long - term [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while futures prices of some contracts increased. The basis of some contracts decreased significantly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate, weekly output, and float - glass daily melting volume increased, while photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of change, mostly negative [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Log futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has cost support, there are expectations of weakening fundamentals in the future, including increased supply and weakening demand [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices fluctuated, and some spot prices remained unchanged, while some in Rizhao Port decreased [3]. - **Supply**: The number of pre - arriving log ships and the arrival volume increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The total national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily average outbound volume increased [3]. 3. Natural Rubber 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View In the short - term, the Fed's hawkish stance on December interest - rate cuts may put pressure on rubber prices. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The price may run around 15,000 - 15,500 if raw material supply is difficult, and may decline further if supply goes smoothly [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot and raw material prices remained unchanged, while some had small fluctuations. The basis and monthly spreads also changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in different countries and regions, tire production, exports, and tire factory operating rates all showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Inventory**: The bonded and general - trade inventory in the protected area decreased, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased [5]. 4. Polysilicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Polysilicon is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in demand orders to support supply growth [7]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and futures prices increased and then fell back. The monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. 5. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Industrial silicon is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Although supply increases put pressure on prices, there is also cost support below [8]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices remained unchanged, and futures prices increased. The basis and monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: National and regional industrial silicon production, operating rates, and production of downstream products all showed different trends [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories decreased slightly, while non - warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. The January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar 3200 and hot - rolled coil 3400 yuan/ton). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened as the coil strengthened. With coal production cut, the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilateral trading strategy turns to buying the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage between Iron Ore 1 - 5 contracts [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Speculative trading suggests buying Coke 2601 on dips, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke, but be aware of large market fluctuations. For coking coal, short - term fluctuations do not affect the fourth - quarter bullish view. Unilateral trading recommends short - term buying on dips for Coking Coal 2601, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke, and pay attention to large market fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil increased from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billet and plate billet were 3000 yuan and 3730 yuan respectively, with the steel billet price increasing by 20 yuan. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions mostly declined. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan to 17 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased to some extent [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decline of 3.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5 tons, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased from 844.7 to 854.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port and some price indexes increased slightly. For example, the price of PB powder in Rizhao Port increased from 796.0 to 805.0 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a decline of 19.5%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, an increase of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory continued to accumulate, with a decrease of 112.4 to 14311.15 tons, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and some spot prices increased. For example, the 01 contract price of coke increased from 1748 to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coking coal increased from 1242 to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decline of 1.04%. The production of coking coal in some regions decreased due to safety and governance issues [6]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by the decline in iron water production [6]. Inventory Changes - For coke, coking plants and steel mills reduced inventory, while ports increased inventory. For coking coal, mines, coal washing plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants, ports, and borders increased inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Futures price is 5594, down 0.29%; spot price is 5578, up 1.67% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price has a 44.10% change; specific futures price data not fully shown [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3240, up 51.10% compared to previous data; spot price is 3133 [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3360, up 23.70% compared to previous data; futures price is 3345 [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 802, down 5.02%; spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 867, up 50.50% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1711; spot price is 1801, up 17.98% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1344; spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1302, up 34.40% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Futures price is 88710; spot price is 87765, up 2.91%; SMM open discount is - 60 [1] - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: Futures price is 21295; spot price is 21170, down 0.59%; SMM open discount is - 125 [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2879; spot price of SMM alumina modulus average is 2875 [1] - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: Futures price is 22430; spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot average is 22220, down 0.94%; SMM open JEX is - 210 [1] - **Tin (SN2512)**: Futures price is 286720; spot price of SMM 1 tin average is 285200, down 0.53%; SMM open discount is - 1520 [1] - **Nickel (NI2512)**: Futures price is 121540; spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel average is 121200, down 0.28%; SMM open discount is - 340 [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Futures price is 13120; spot price of 304/2B stainless steel at Wuxi Hongwang is 12805, up 66.52% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: Futures price is 82900; spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average is 79150, down 4.52% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (215601)**: Futures price is 9350; spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing Si5530 average is 9170, up 1.96% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Futures price is 910.9; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) is 912.4, up 0.17%; basis is 1.5, basis rate is 0.11%, historical quantile is 99.50% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Futures price is 11351.0; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) is 11338.0, up 0.11%; basis is 13.0, basis rate is 0.11%, historical quantile is 96.90% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Futures price is 2969.0; spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 2920, down 1.65%; basis is - 49.0, basis rate is 1.70%, historical quantile is 29.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Futures price is 8132.0; spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 8270, up 27.60%; basis is 138.0, basis rate is 1.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 8842.0; spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port delivery price is 8730, up 127%; basis is - 112.0, basis rate is 4.20%, historical quantile is 5.77% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2373.0; spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal at Guangdong Zhanjiang factory is 2510, up 3.83%; basis is 137.0, historical quantile is 71.10% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleo1)**: Futures price is 9525.0; spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil at Jiangsu Nantong factory is 84.60% higher than previous data; basis is 365.0, basis rate is 0.19% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Futures price is 2120; spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2116.0, up 43.80%; basis is 4.0 [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Futures price is 2427.0; spot price of corn starch at Jilin Changchun factory is 2550, up 5.07%; basis is 123.0, historical quantile is 62.30% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Futures price is 12185.0; spot price of live hogs (outside ternary) at Henan factory is 12550, up 52.60%; basis is 365.0 [1] - **Eggs (JD2512)**: Futures price is 3165.0; spot price of eggs at Hebei Shijiazhuang average price is 2960, down 6.48%; basis is - 205.0, historical quantile is 17.70% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 13620.0; spot price of cotton (3128B) at Xinjiang factory is 14650, up 61.50%; basis is 1030.0 [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5780; spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou platform is 5494.0, up 5.21%; basis is 286.0, historical quantile is 46.90% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Futures price is 8840; spot price of apples (delivery theoretical price) is 9198.0, up 6.50%; basis is - 358.0, basis rate is 3.89% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Futures price is 9600; spot price of first - grade grey jujubes at Hebei wholesale price is 10495.0, up 53.40%; basis is - 895.0, basis rate is - 8.53% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Futures price is 6693.0; spot price of paraxylene at Chinese main port (CFR) converted to RMB is 6652.0, up 12.20%; basis is 41.0, historical quantile is - 161% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4545.0; spot price of purified terephthalic acid in East China is 4636.0, up 20.00%; basis is 91.0, basis rate is 2.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4180.0; spot price of ethylene glycol in East China is 4100.0, up 75.00%; basis is - 80.0 [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PFS12)**: Futures price is 6365.0; spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China market is 6268.0, up 74.30%; basis is 97.0, basis rate is 2.12% [1] - **Styrene (EB2512)**: Futures price is 6460.0; spot price of styrene in East China is 6513.0, up 4.59%; basis is - 53.0, historical quantile is 75.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2210.0; spot price of methanol at Jiangsu Taicang is 2257.0, down 2.19%; basis is - 47.0, basis rate is 0.97% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Futures price is 1644.0; spot price of urea in Shandong is 1600.0, down 5.50%; basis is - 44.0 [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7010.0; spot price of linear low - density polyethylene in Shandong is 7009.0, up 1.35%; basis is 1.0, historical quantile is 57.30% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6615.0; spot price of polypropylene in Zhejiang is 6685.0, up 48.60%; basis is - 70.0 [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4620.0; spot price of polyvinyl chloride in Changzhou is 4775.0, up 3.71%; basis is - 155.0, historical quantile is 33.20% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2500.0; spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is 2361.0, up 70.40%; basis is 139.0 [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Futures price is 4312.0; spot price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4398.0, up 6.08%; basis is 86.0, historical quantile is 48.10% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Futures price is 3274.0; spot price of asphalt in Shandong is 3280.0, up 93.40%; basis is 6.0 [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: Futures price is 11000.0; spot price of butadiene rubber in China is 10795.0, up 62.00%; basis is 205.0 [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1044.0; spot price of float glass in Shahe is 1127.0, up 42.43%; basis is - 83.0, basis rate is - 7.95% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1259.0; spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1209.0, down 4.14%; basis is - 50.0, basis rate is - 5.93% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15625.0; spot price of natural rubber in Shanghai is 14750.0, down 35.30%; basis is - 875.0 [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Futures price is 4732.6; spot price is 4747.8, down 0.32%; basis is - 15.2, historical quantile is 29.10% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Futures price is 3064.8; spot price is 3063.0, up 0.06%; basis is 1.8, historical quantile is 66.90% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7481.0; spot price is 7390.0, up 1.23%; basis is - 91.0, historical quantile is 4.50% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7446.4; spot price is 7569.1, down 1.65%; basis is - 122.7, historical quantile is 13.70% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: Futures price is 102.37; spot price is 99.94, up 20.00%; basis is - 0.02, basis rate is - 0.02%, conversion factor is 0.9765 [1] - **TF2512**: Futures price is 105.72; spot price is 99.39, up 21.80%; basis is - 0.04, basis rate is - 0.04%, conversion factor is 0.9405 [1] - **T2512**: Futures price is 108.10; spot price is 100.19, up 21.10%; basis is 0.05, basis rate is 0.05%, conversion factor is 0.9264 [1] - **TL2512**: Futures price is 114.48; spot price is 129.31, up 37.50%; basis is 0.25, basis rate is 1.1271, conversion factor is 0.28 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal and the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea have stimulated the market, with risk appetite significantly increasing. Different sectors in the market show various trends and investment opportunities, influenced by factors such as macro - economic expectations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The meeting between China and the US and macro - expectations have stimulated the index to recover. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level with a light position or construct a bull call spread to capture the upward potential [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term wide - money expectations, Sino - US relations, and profit - taking needs may affect the bond market, leading to possible fluctuations. However, with the recovery of bond market sentiment and the support of the restart expectation of treasury bond trading, there may be trading opportunities for band - up movements. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite has continued to rise, causing funds to flow out rapidly. After a significant decline, gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy gold at a low price below $4000 after the Fed's decision, and pay attention to the trend of silver at around $47 [3]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The EC main contract shows short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel inventory reduction supports the strengthening of steel prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the previous high pressure for long positions and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in shipments and arrivals, and the increase in port inventory and a slight decrease in hot - metal output, iron ore continues to rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is running strongly, and the downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, with coking coal providing cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 87,000 for the main contract [3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Different aluminum - related products show various trends, and corresponding price ranges and trading strategies are provided, such as focusing on the operating range and support levels [3]. - **Tin**: Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut outlook may cause tin prices to fall in the short term. A strategy of buying on dips during the correction is recommended [3]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The improvement of macro - sentiment has led to the strengthening of the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Corresponding price ranges for the main contracts are provided [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The easing of macro - sentiment and the unexpected reduction of EIA inventory have driven the crude - oil price to recover, but the production - increase pressure from OPEC still limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. - **Urea**: The downstream demand support is still weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term resistance level is given at 1650 - 1670 yuan/ton [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Corresponding trading strategies such as paying attention to pressure levels and reducing positions on rallies are provided [3]. - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, and Other Products**: Different products have different supply - demand and cost - profit situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended, such as going short on rallies to narrow spreads [3]. - **Ethanol and Other Chemicals**: For different chemicals, various trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand relationships and price trends, such as selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Different grains and oilseeds show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as going long on certain contracts and paying attention to support levels are provided [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of second - fattening pigs has slowed down, and the pig price is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 12,000 [3]. - **Sugar, Cotton, and Other Products**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading opportunities, such as paying attention to support and pressure levels and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Special and New Energy Sectors - **Special Commodities**: Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as short - term long - position opportunities and paying attention to price ranges are provided [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as the expected establishment of platform companies and fundamental improvements, showing high - level oscillations and a rising price center [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The market is influenced by various factors such as Sino - US relations, central bank policies, and economic data. For example, Sino - US leaders' meetings affect market sentiment, and central bank monetary policies impact interest rates and asset prices [2][4]. - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision and statements, precious metals are under short - term pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The container shipping market shows a mixed situation with increasing capacity and different demand indicators in different regions. The futures market is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions supporting price increases, while aluminum is in a tight - balance situation [13][18][23]. - **Black Metals**: The steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors. The coal and coke markets are also influenced by production, consumption, and policy factors [44][47][50]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, soybean meal has cost support, while the pig price is in a volatile state [56][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the main indexes opened higher and rose with increased trading volume. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policies affected market sentiment. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the yield of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. The short - end bonds were supported by the expectation of the central bank's bond - buying restart, while the long - term bonds were suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP as expected and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction. The precious metals market was affected by the Fed's statements and economic data. Gold prices fell after rising, and silver prices rose slightly. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - As of October 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies. The container shipping index showed an upward trend. The global container capacity increased, and the demand indicators in different regions were different. The futures market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The Fed cut interest rates, and the market focused on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline in October. The demand for copper had strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87000 [13][14][18]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2750 - 2950 [18][19][20]. Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased slightly. The supply was affected by the proportion of molten aluminum, and the demand was structurally different. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21400 [21][22][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was in a mild recovery. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 20800 [23][24][25]. Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased slightly. The supply was expected to be limited in the future due to the decline in processing fees and by - product prices. The demand was stable, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in an oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 21800 - 22800 [26][27][28]. Tin - The spot price of tin increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory situation was mixed. Due to the hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to buy on dips [29][30][33]. Nickel - The spot price of nickel decreased slightly. The production of refined nickel was high, and the demand in different sectors was different. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in an interval oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 [33][34][35]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not significantly boosted. The inventory decreased slowly. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 [37][38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased. The supply was increasing, and the demand was optimistic. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 83,000 and 85,000 [40][41][43]. Black Metals Steel - The spot price of steel increased, and the basis spread weakened. The cost and profit situation was complex, the supply was affected by production reduction and increase, and the demand was affected by domestic and foreign factors. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore increased. The supply situation was mixed with increasing global shipments and decreasing arrivals at ports. The demand was affected by steel production and profit. The inventory increased. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [47][48][49]. Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rose strongly. The spot price was strong, and the downstream had replenishment demand. The supply was affected by domestic production reduction and import situations. The demand was affected by iron and steel production. The inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1200 - 1350, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][52][55]. Coke - The futures price of coke rose strongly. The spot price had a third - round price increase. The supply was affected by coking coal prices and production reduction. The demand was affected by steel production. The inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1700 - 1850, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The spot price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume decreased. The supply and demand situation was affected by Sino - US relations, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic inventory. The cost of domestic soybean imports was supported, and the trend of domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong [56][57][58]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was stable with a slight increase. The profit of pig farming improved, and the average weight of pigs decreased. The second - round fattening enthusiasm slowed down, and the price was expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread arbitrage [59][60]. Corn - The spot price of corn was mixed. The inventory situation in ports showed different trends for different grains. The supply pressure was still there, and the price was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [61].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure, with concerns about production growth and export slowdown. There is a risk of further decline in prices, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize at the annual line of 8800 yuan. [1] - Soybean oil: Optimistic expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement may support soybean prices and drive up soybean oil prices from the cost side. In China, there is pressure on soybean meal supply in Guangxi, leading to an increase in the basis price of soybean oil. However, overall demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to remain stable. [1] Livestock (Pigs) - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has slowed down, and the market supply is relatively loose. In the short term, there may still be support from secondary fattening, and the price decline is limited. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter will continue to increase in November and December, and there may be a new round of pressure around the Winter Solstice. It is advisable to wait for the spot price to stabilize before considering reverse arbitrage. [3] Meal Products - The improvement in Sino - US trade relations strongly supports US soybeans, but after the price rebounds above 1100 cents, there is profit - taking. Brazilian soybean exports remain high, and the discount provides support for domestic soybean import costs. Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, cost - side support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong. [6] Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, corn prices are generally stable due to factors such as temperature and policy support. In the North China region, farmers' selling enthusiasm changes with price fluctuations, and prices have partially rebounded. Overall, there is still selling pressure due to a bumper harvest, and prices are limited in their rebound. On the demand side, procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The corn futures market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term. [8] Sugar - Brazil's gasoline price cut fails to lower the sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar - pressing season, the market is focusing on production prospects in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum as it approaches the production cost, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern. [13] Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and there is a rigid demand for cotton. The rising cost of new cotton provides strong support, but there is also hedging pressure when the price rises. With the approaching end of seed cotton procurement, the marginal driving force is decreasing. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [14] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens, improved egg - laying rates, and increased egg weights. The demand may first increase and then decrease this week as traders replenish and then digest their inventories. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline slightly in the second half of the week. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 3200 for the main contract. [16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, down 100 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8132 yuan, down 50 yuan (-0.61%); the basis was 218 yuan, down 50 yuan (-18.66%); the number of warehouse receipts increased by 500 to 27644, a 1.84% increase. [1] - **Palm Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8750 yuan, down 150 yuan (-1.69%); the futures price of P2601 was 8842 yuan, down 116 yuan (-1.29%); the basis was - 92 yuan, down 34 yuan (-58.62%); the import cost was 9273.7 yuan, down 163 yuan (-1.73%); the import profit was - 432 yuan, up 47 yuan (9.83%); the number of warehouse receipts decreased to 0 from 512. [1] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 172 yuan, down 8 yuan (-4.44%); the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was - 48 yuan, down 26 yuan (-118.18%); the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 340 yuan, down 38 yuan (-9.82%); the soybean - palm oil spot price spread was - 400 yuan, up 50 yuan (11.11%); the soybean - palm oil 2601 price spread was - 930 yuan, up 48 yuan (4.91%); the rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread was 1450 yuan, down 100 yuan (-6.45%); the rapeseed - soybean oil 2601 price spread was 1393 yuan, down 155 yuan (-10.01%). [1] Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 365 yuan, up 75 yuan (25.86%); the price of LH2605 was 12010 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.41%); the price of LH2601 was 12185 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.21%); the 1 - 5 spread was 175 yuan, up 75 yuan (75.00%); the position of the main contract was 119788, up 2540 (2.17%); the number of warehouse receipts was 206, unchanged. [3] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions increased, with increases ranging from 100 to 800 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1215 to 162661 (-0.74%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 18.47 yuan, down 0.03 yuan (-0.16%); the weekly piglet price was 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight was 127.9 kg, down 0.3 kg (-0.27%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 186 yuan/head, up 59 yuan (24.12%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 289 yuan/head, up 86.2 yuan (22.97%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows was 40380000 heads, down 40000 (-0.10%). [3] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2969 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.20%); the basis was 1 yuan, up 6 yuan (120.00%); the basis price was m2601 - 30, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Argentine December shipments was - 49 yuan, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Brazilian December shipments was - 240 yuan, down 33 yuan (-15.9%); the number of warehouse receipts was 42332, down 50 (-0.1%). [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2450 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2373 yuan, down 23 yuan (-0.96%); the basis was 77 yuan, up 33 yuan (75.00%); the import crushing profit for Canadian January shipments was 583 yuan, down 148 yuan (-20.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 3915, down 135 (-3.33%). [6] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4113 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the basis was - 213 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.93%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3671 yuan, down 12 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 269 yuan, up 12 yuan (4.67%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7190, up 100 (1.41%). [6] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 166 yuan, down 14 yuan (-7.78%); the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 43 yuan, down 15 yuan (-25.86%); the oil - meal ratio in the spot market was 2.81, down 0.034 (-1.18%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 2.74, down 0.011 (-0.41%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 520 yuan, down 10 yuan (-1.89%); the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 596 yuan, up 17 yuan (2.94%). [6] Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2116 yuan, down 7 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 17 yuan, down 13 yuan (-76.47%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 105 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.87%); the price of bulk grain at Shekou was 2280 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.88%); the north - south trade profit was 40 yuan, up 11 yuan (137.93%); the CIF price was 1974 yuan, down 4 yuan (-0.19%); the import profit was 306 yuan, up 24 yuan (8.38%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 552, down 192 (-25.81%); the position was 1774664, up 10545 (0.60%); the number of warehouse receipts was 63966, up 2000 (3.23%). [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2427 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.12%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 83 yuan, down 3 yuan (-3.49%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 113 yuan, up 4 yuan (3.42%); the 01 contract spread between starch and corn was 311 yuan, up 10 yuan (3.32%); the profit of Shandong starch was 120 yuan, down 8 yuan (-6.25%); the trading volume was 280362, down 3102 (-1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12504, unchanged. [8] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of SR2605 was 5430 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.22%); the price of ICE raw sugar was 14.43 cents/pound, up 0.04 cents (0.28%); the 1 - 5 spread was 64 yuan, down 1 yuan (-1.54%); the position of the main contract was 391035, down 9001 (-2.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7625, down 70 (-0.91%); the number of valid forecasts was 586, unchanged. [13] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 320 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.61%); the Kunming basis was 290 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.97%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3990 yuan, down 25 yuan (-0.62%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5052 yuan, down 33 yuan (-0.65%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning was - 1760 yuan, down 25 yuan (-1.44%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning was - 698 yuan, down 33 yuan (-4.96%). [13] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1048 million tons, up 88 million tons (9.17%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.5 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%); the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons (-41.20%); the cumulative national sugar sales rate was 93.9%, down 2.51 percentage points (-2.60%); the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 93.9%, up 4.3 percentage points (4.80%); the national industrial sugar inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons (-41.20%); the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi was 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons (62.90%); the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan was 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons (26.60%); sugar imports were 55 million tons, up 15 million tons (37.50%). [13] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of CF2601 was 13620 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of ICE US cotton was 65.95 cents/pound, up 0.9 cents (1.38%); the 5 - 1 spread was 5 yuan, unchanged; the position of the main contract was 578488, down 596 (-0.10%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2460, down 11 (-0.45%); the number of valid forecasts was 1076, up 194 (22.00%). [14] - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14650 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.01%); the CC Index 3128B was 14840 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.07%); the FC Index M 1% was 13209 yuan, up 93 yuan (0.71%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1025 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.18%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1030 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.16%); the spread between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% was 1631 yuan, down 83 yuan (-4.84%). [14] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 69.85 million tons (68.4%); industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 3.62 million tons (-4.3%); imports were 10 million tons, up 3 million tons (42.9%); bonded area inventory was 28.8 million tons, down 0.1 million tons (-0.3%); the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry was 0.3, down 0.1 (-25.0%); the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, up 0.39 days (1.6%); the grey fabric inventory days were 31.43 days, up 0.31 days (1.0%); the cotton outbound shipping volume was

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].