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广发期货日评-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:35
欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 市场冲高兑现预期后稍有回调,震荡为主,降波企 IF2512 稳。可尝试轻仓卖出支撑位看跌期权,参考中证 IH2512 股指 市场持续缩量震荡,顺周期板块占优 IC2512 1000执行价7000左右,或以看跌期权构建牛市 认购价差,捕捉后续上行空间。 IM2512 鉴于整体市场情绪有所好转,预计债券利率波动区 T2512 间总体有所下移,10年期国债活跃券250016.IB TF2512 的波动区间可能在1.75%-1.85%。单边策略上建 期债走势震荡,关注10月国债买卖是否重启 国债 TS2512 议投资者可以逢调整适当做多。期现策略上由于 TL2512 金融 IRR上升,可以关注正套策略机会。 短期行情缺乏明确驱动情况下将转入震荡阶段波动 率持续回落,国际金价或在3995-4070美元 AU2512 贵金属 美联储官员对降息仍有分歧 贵金属延续窄幅波动 (910-935元)区间运行,以波动操作为主或逢 AG2512 高卖出虚值黄金看跌期权:白银整体维持震荡格局 在47-50美元(11000-11700元)区间波动 集运指数 短期震荡,建议逢低做多 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume rebound on Monday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts had narrow - range fluctuations, and the basis of the main contracts was adjusted. Domestic policy is expected to support the PMI index, while overseas, there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. Different futures varieties have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and news[3][4][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures 3.1.1. Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, A - share major indices opened lower and closed higher with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. Pro - cyclical sectors such as forestry, oil and gas, and coal performed well, while industrial sectors such as precious metals, basic metals, and automobiles declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all had narrow - range fluctuations, with IF2512 and IH2512 down 0.04% and 0.00% respectively, IC2512 down 0.34%, and IM2512 up 0.01%. The basis of the four major contracts was adjusted[3][4]. - **News**: China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary suggested interest rate cuts if inflation drops. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 63%[4][5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Try to sell out - of - the - money put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread with put options to capture the subsequent upside space[5]. 3.1.2. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed mostly lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.03%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were mixed[6]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, with a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were loose, and short - term interest rates are expected to remain low[6][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: In November, the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities due to the rise of IRR[7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected. The US government shutdown has affected the economy, and the gold tax policy has led to price adjustments by some enterprises. The precious metals market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range[8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the precious metals market will enter an oscillation stage with falling volatility. The international gold price may operate in the range of 3995 - 4070 US dollars (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to conduct volatility operations or sell out - of - the - money gold put options at high prices. Silver prices will oscillate in the range of 47 - 50 US dollars (11000 - 11700 yuan)[9][11]. - **Funding**: The recent rise and fall of gold and silver prices have led to an outflow of ETF funds, and investors' short - term attitudes tend to be cautious[11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - Europe basic ports in the next 6 weeks varied among different shipping companies[12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% month - on - month; the US - West route index was 1267.15 points, up 14.43% month - on - month. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index was 1550.7 points, up 10% month - on - month[12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33.35 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7[12]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips[13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1. Copper - **Spot**: As of November 3, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86840 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement volume increased slightly as copper prices declined[13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The US - China economic and trade consultation reached a consensus, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case[14]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC was at a low level. In October, the SMM Chinese electrolytic copper output decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decrease by 0.4 million tons in November[14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released when prices fall[15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased[16]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: After the positive expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, the short - term driving force is weak. The main contract should focus on the support level of 86000 - 86500 yuan/ton, and the short - term view is oscillation[17]. 3.4.2. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a general loosening of prices due to a gradually loose supply pattern and stable demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry[17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, but the situation may improve[18]. - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants all increased in October, and the total registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts also increased[18]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The alumina price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite and other factors[19][20]. 3.4.3. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day[20]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and it is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots will continue to increase slightly in October[20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries entered the traditional peak season, but the weekly start - up rate of processing products declined[20]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased[21]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes and LME de - stocking intensity[22]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 spot average price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day[23]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will remain flat in October[23]. - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission was not smooth, and high prices inhibited downstream procurement[23][24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories increased slightly, and the total registered volume of casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased[24]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the long AD01 and short AL01 arbitrage when the spread is above 550[25]. 3.4.5. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand[25]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore processing fee decreased, and the smelting profit was compressed, which limited the subsequent output increase. The supply of the zinc industry chain has changed from loose to tight[26]. - **Demand**: The demand did not exceed expectations, with domestic demand stronger than overseas. The inventory of the three primary processing industries showed a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in finished - product inventory[27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories and LME inventories both decreased[27]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton[28]. 3.4.6. Tin - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading was light[28]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month, and the tin ingot import volume returned to normal. The tin ingot export volume increased[29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder start - up rate increased slightly, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields was weak. LME inventories decreased, while social inventories decreased slightly[31]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The tin price is expected to oscillate widely. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter[32]. 3.4.7. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day[32]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to continue to increase slightly[33]. - **Demand**: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from alloys was relatively good. The demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term[33]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased[33]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies[34][35]. 3.4.8. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased, and the basis decreased[35]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, while the nickel - iron price decreased, and the cost support of raw materials declined[35]. - **Supply**: In September and October, domestic stainless steel production increased[36]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased[36]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply[37][38]. 3.4.9. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market spot circulation was tight, but most downstream enterprises still chose to wait and see[38]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, but the weekly production decreased slightly recently, mainly due to the decline in lithium - spodumene - extracted lithium carbonate production[39]. - **Demand**: The demand was generally optimistic, with an expected increase in the production of lithium - iron and ternary materials. Pay attention to the marginal change in downstream orders after November[39]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in all links last week[40]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton[41][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals 3.5.1. Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was weak, with the rebar basis strengthening and the hot - rolled coil basis weakening[42]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil[42]. - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron - element output increased by 5% year - on - year. In October, the increase narrowed. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the molten iron output decreased, but the five - major steel products output increased slightly[42]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation was still weak, while the export remained at a high level. The apparent demand of the five - major steel products increased, and the inventory pressure was relieved[42][43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five - major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will continue to decline month - on - month[43]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils. Consider holding the long - coking - coal and short - hot - rolled - coil arbitrage[44][45]. 3.5.2. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or decreased[46]. - **Futures**: As of November 3, the iron ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened[46]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated[46]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the daily molten iron output, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased, and the steel - mill profitability declined[46]. - **Supply**: As of November 3, the global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly[47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the port inventory increased, the daily port - clearing volume increased, and the steel - mill iron - ore inventory decreased[47]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. Consider shorting the 2601 contract on rallies, with the reference range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage[48]. 3.5.3. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 3, the coking coal futures prices oscillated and declined, while the spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia were strong[49]. - **Supply**: As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in Fenwei increased slightly, while that in Ganglian decreased slightly. The coal inventories in mines decreased[49][50][51]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the coke production of coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the molten iron output decreased[51]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with mines, ports, and washing plants de - stocking, and coking plants and steel mills increasing inventory[52]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The coking - coal price is expected to
点评报告:国家黄金税收政策变化解读
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 14:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new gold tax policy aims to address tax regulatory pressures in the current "gold - buying boom" by implementing refined tax management and distinguishing between "investment" and "non - investment" uses of gold, plugging "tax arbitrage" loopholes [4]. - The policy may lead to increased costs for non - exchange physical gold transactions, potentially causing investment demand to shift to virtual trading markets and affecting the scale of the spot market [4]. - Due to the lack of implementation details, market participants are in a wait - and - see state, and short - term trading volume may be affected [4]. - In the long run, global macro - economic, fiscal and monetary policies, and geopolitical events are the core factors affecting gold prices, but the new policy may dampen market enthusiasm in the short term [5]. - The new policy can enhance the international competitiveness of China's gold market and contribute to the internationalization of the RMB [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Policy Core - For gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, when the seller sells standard gold, VAT is exempted. For physical delivery, different VAT policies apply based on the use of the gold [1]. - For investment - use standard gold purchased by member units, the exchange implements VAT immediate refund, exempts urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharges, and issues VAT special invoices. The buying member unit pays VAT when reselling and can only issue ordinary invoices [1]. - For non - investment - use standard gold purchased by member units, the exchange exempts VAT and issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying member units can calculate input tax at a 6% deduction rate and can issue VAT special invoices when reselling [2]. - For standard gold purchased by customers, the exchange exempts VAT and issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying customers can calculate input tax at a 6% deduction rate and can issue VAT special invoices when reselling [2]. Specific Policy Changes - Investment gold is not tax - exempt when sold to individual investors, and downstream cannot obtain special invoices for deduction. Non - investment gold can have 6% of its VAT deducted in the processing link and is sold at a VAT - included price in the retail link [3]. - Member units or customers need to clearly indicate the type of gold use on invoices. If the use of gold changes, member units should report to the exchange within 6 months and can only apply for a change once [3]. Impact on the Market - The policy helps plug tax loopholes, forcing enterprises to choose between "investment gold" and "consumer goods" tracks and refine their financial and tax management [4]. - Non - exchange physical gold transactions may face cost increases, leading to a potential shift of investment demand to virtual trading markets. Non - investment gold products still face at least 7% VAT cost [4]. - Due to the lack of implementation details, short - term trading volume may be affected as market participants are in a wait - and - see state [4]. - The new policy may dampen short - term market enthusiasm during a gold bull market, but in the long run, macro - factors are the core determinants of gold prices [5]. - The policy can enhance the international competitiveness of China's gold market and contribute to RMB internationalization [5].
氯碱周报:SH:下游压力传导压制烧碱价格,供应端增量价格缺乏支撑,V:11月供需过剩格局持续,价格难言乐观-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:14
氯碱周报 S H :下游压力传导压制烧碱价格 , 供应端增量价格缺乏支撑 V : 1 1 月供需过剩格局持续 , 价格难言乐观 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格:Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考,请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 期货策略建议:偏空思路 ◼ 期权策略建议:前观望 ◼ 期货策略建议:反弹偏空对待 ◼ 期权策略建议:观望 01 烧碱 壹 烧碱 2,000.00 2,300.00 2,600.00 2,900.00 3,200.00 3,500.00 2024-06-26 2024-07-26 2024-08-26 2024-09-26 2024-10-26 2024-11-26 2024-12-26 2025-01-26 2025-02-26 2025-03-26 2025-04-26 2025-05-26 2025-06-26 期货收盘价(活跃合约):烧碱 元/吨 宏观转弱,烧碱开工 同比偏高,液碱厂库 周度止降。8月合约 修复基差,盘面加速 回落;现货博弈,市 场担忧后续供应回归 下边际转弱,下游需 求淡稳。 盘面定价远月,产区检修后部分装置重启供 ...
《农产品》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 09:34
1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].
《金融》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 09:19
中心不知名在 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月3日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 现货报价 | | | | | | | 上海-欧洲未来6周运价参考 | 11月3日 | 11月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MAERSK马士基 | 2258 | 2434 | -176 | -7.23% | 美元/FEU | | CMA达飞 | 3263 | 2622 | 641 | 24.45% | | | MSC地中海 | 2265 | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ONE海洋网联 | 2309 | 2284 | 25 | 1.09% | | | EMC长荣 | 2663 | 2510 | 153 | 6.10% | | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 10月27日 | 10月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1312.71 | 1140.3 ...
《有色》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 07:10
期 别 【 】 拾资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】129 智敏 波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 87570 | 88062 | -495.00 | -0.56% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | -55 | +55.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 87510 | 88115 | -605.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 87455 | 87955 | -500.00 | -0.57% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -115 | -165 | +50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3966 | 4422 | -455.86 | -10.31% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -14.44 | -21.39 ...
全品种价差日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:08
| 历史分位数 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基准 | 现货参考 | 留注 | 基差变 | 2 33% | 158 | 73.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块 内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF601) | 5500 | 2658 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5772 | 274% | 158 | 2930 | 54.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM601) | 3 199% | 3230 | 124 | 3106 | 56.30% | HRB40020mm 上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2601) | | | | | | 22 | 0167% | Q235B: 4.75mm 上海 | 0EEE | 3308 | 26.60% | 热卷(HC2601) | રન | 800 | 8 03 % | 折算价 62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河合:日照港 | 86 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:05
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | SOSS #11日3日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -9.27 | 10.64 | 52.00% | 38.60% | H期现价差 | 3.65 | 5.26 | 80.30% | 77.90% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | | | | | | -88.60 | -1.89 | 4.9096 | 25.4096 | 11.50% | IM期现价差 | -138.47 | -17.79 | 70.00% | 次月-当月 | -9.60 | 1.80 | 45.4096 | 38.50% | | | | 季月-当月 | -32.20 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:05
期 别 【 】 拾资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】129 智敏 波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 87570 | 88062 | -495.00 | -0.56% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | -55 | +55.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 87510 | 88115 | -605.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 87455 | 87955 | -500.00 | -0.57% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -115 | -165 | +50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3966 | 4422 | -455.86 | -10.31% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -14.44 | -21.39 ...