Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysia's palm oil futures may face further downward pressure due to potential slowdown in export growth and concerns about increased production in October. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are likely to continue to decline. Overall, a cautious and bearish view is maintained [1]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 17 cents per pound. After the National Day holiday, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [2]. Corn - During the period of new corn's concentrated market entry, due to the pressure of phased supply, corn will maintain a weak pattern [3]. Cotton - In the medium term, cotton prices will face pressure when they rise [6]. Meal - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected shortage in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the price of M2601. If the purchase of US soybeans continues to be halted, the M2601 contract has support in the range of 2900 - 2950, where long positions can be considered [8]. Pork - In the short term, there are signs of second - fattening and reluctance to sell, but in the medium and long term, the supply pressure of pork will continue to be released, and pig prices are not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market [10][11]. Eggs - This week, the egg market is expected to decline in an oscillating manner, with no obvious positive support in the short term [14]. Summary by Category Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On October 10, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 fell by 0.36% to 8302 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.79% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9460 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 fell by 1.38% to 9438 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 120% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 10330 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 fell by 1.82% to 10061 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 33.17% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with the palm oil's 01 - 05 spread dropping by 18.10% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.58% to 5496 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar's main contract fell by 0.92% to 16.10 cents per pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5800 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.17% to 5810 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 12.87% to 1000 million tons [2]. Corn - **Corn**: On October 10, the price of corn 2511 decreased by 0.61% to 2125 yuan/ton, and the import profit decreased by 2.58% to 377 yuan/ton [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.08% to 2432 yuan/ton, and the profit of Shandong's starch increased by 40% to 35 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.22% to 13375 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton's main contract decreased by 1.07% to 63.77 cents per pound [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.12% to 14630 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.1% to 102.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 40% to 7 million tons [6]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.37% to 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of M2601 increased by 2000% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2460 yuan/ton, and the basis of RM2601 remained unchanged [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract of soybean No. 1 remained unchanged [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the main contract of live pigs decreased by 2.37% to 11320 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 0.21% to 12140 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions all decreased, with the price in Henan dropping to 11200 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.18% to 154455, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30% to - 152 yuan per head [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the 11 - contract of eggs decreased by 2.26% to 2806 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 2.65% to 3160 yuan/500KG [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 3.02% to 2.87 yuan per catty, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.88% to 4.46 yuan per catty [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.70% to 2.83, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% to 2.12 yuan per bird [13].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1-year percentiles, and all-time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads on October 13, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot-futures spread was -4.35, up 30.70% from the previous day, with a 1-year percentile of 18.00%. Different inter - delivery spreads also showed various changes and percentiles [1]. - **IH Spreads**: Information on IH spreads including spot - futures and inter - delivery spreads was provided, such as the spot - futures spread being 0.95, down 4.46 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 59.40% [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread was 0.90, down 132.22 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.30%. Inter - delivery spreads had their own values, changes, and percentiles [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread was -193.42, up 5.03 from the previous day. Its inter - delivery spreads also had corresponding data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., were presented with their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on October 13, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis was 1.3657, up 0.0017 from the previous day, with a percentile of 15.10%. TF, T, and TL bases also had their respective values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL futures contracts were reported, such as the TS current - quarter to next - quarter spread being 0.0180, down 0.0240 from the previous day, with a percentile of 23.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., were presented with their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report provides the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on October 13, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 901.56, down 12.76 (-1.40%) from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 11082, down 87 (-0.78%) [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 4035.50, up 44.40 (1.11%) from the previous day. The COMEX silver main contract closed at 47.52, down 0.14 (-0.29%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4017.85, up 41.90 (1.05%) from the previous day. London silver was at 50.13, up 0.92 (1.87%) [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - SHFE gold main contract basis was -3.82, down 0.88 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 21.20%. The silver TD - SHFE silver main contract basis was -23, down 30 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 44.50% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 84.93, up 1.18 (1.41%) from the previous day. The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 81.35, down 0.51 (-0.62%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05, down 0.09 (-2.2%) from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.82, down 0.58 (-0.59%) [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory was 70728, unchanged from the previous day. The SHFE silver inventory was 1169061 kg, down 17785 kg (-1.50%) [4]. Group 4: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index Report Core View The report presents spot freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the Shanghai export container shipping industry on October 13, 2025 [8]. Summary by Category - **Spot Freight Rates**: SCFI (Europe) was 1068 dollars/TEU, up 97.0 (9.99%) from the previous day. SCFI (US West) was 1468 dollars/FEU, up 8.0 (0.55%) [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract was 1338.0, down 68.0 (-4.84%) from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was -202.1, down 45.1 (28.72%) [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3319.85 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai was 42.77%, up 24.46 percentage points (133.59%) from the previous month [8]. Group 5: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report gives the spot quotes and the change of the SCFI composite index in the container shipping industry on October 13, 2025 [11]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: The SCFI composite index was 1114.52 points, up 45.9 (4.12%) from the previous day [11].

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, on October 13, 2025, with details on total position changes, main contract position changes, and changes in the positions of the top 20 long and short seats [1][4][10][15][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 10, the total position of the IF variety increased by 1,506 hands, while the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 329 hands [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 42,563 hands. Yide Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,222 hands during the day, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,924 hands [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 46,643 hands. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,342 hands during the day, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,969 hands [7] IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 10, the total position of the IH variety increased by 2,170 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 840 hands [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 12,422 hands. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 599 hands during the day, while Nanhua Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 735 hands [10] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 17,925 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 758 hands during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 369 hands [11] IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 10, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 8,282 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 3,614 hands [15] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 44,817 hands. Dongwu Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 603 hands during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,173 hands [15] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 44,283 hands. Bank of China Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 316 hands during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,509 hands [17] IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 10, the total position of the IM variety increased by 3,851 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 1,106 hands [21] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first among the top 20 long seats, with a total position of 52,550 hands. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,986 hands during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,615 hands [22] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: CITIC Futures ranked first among the top 20 short seats, with a total position of 73,190 hands. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,487 hands during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 555 hands [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, the post - holiday futures market dropped significantly due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and light spot trading. In the short term, it lacks support and is weak, but there is demand support in the medium - to - long term. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and it is expected to have limited downside space during the peak season, with attention on downstream demand [2]. - Futures strategy: Both caustic soda and PVC should be treated bearishly [2]. - Options strategy: Hold put options for both caustic soda and PVC [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price Trends**: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as alumina production, cost changes, and market sentiment. After the holiday, there was inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking in the first week, and the market was weak [5]. - **Supply**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity in Chinese enterprises with 200,000 tons or more decreased by 0.7% week - on - week from September 26 - October 2 to October 3 - 9, 2025. In September, the national caustic soda output was 3.512 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [24]. - **Demand**: Alumina has a large number of planned new production capacities from the end of 2024 to 2025, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29]. - **Profit**: The profit of caustic soda enterprises has been affected by factors such as the price of liquid chlorine and raw materials [5]. 3.2 PVC - **Price Trends**: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to lack of positive drivers in supply - demand and a poor commodity atmosphere. After the holiday, the market sentiment weakened, and the demand was hard to improve [61]. - **Supply**: In the week of the report, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. In September 2025, the domestic PVC output was 2.0308 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real - estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [90]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has weakened month - on - month, and the profit of calcium carbide enterprises has improved slightly [67][72]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has increased, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [98]. - **Foreign Market**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export windows to Southeast Asia and India opened [116].

Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [2] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5950, futures price is 5760, basis is 190, basis rate is 4.74%, historical quantile is 62.70% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3250, futures price is 3103 [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3350, futures price is 3285, basis is 45.70%, historical quantile is 6.81% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Discounted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port, futures price data available [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price is 1667, futures price is 1570, change is -96, change rate is -5.78%, historical quantile is 14.98% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Discounted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi, spot price is 1161, futures price is 1176, historical quantile is 27.10% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price is 86680, futures price is 85910, basis is 96.04%, historical quantile is 0.90% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price is 20980, futures price is 20980, basis is 0, historical quantile is 58.95% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2965, futures price is 2856, basis is -0.18%, historical quantile is 3.81% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price is 22270, futures price is 22230, basis is -40, historical quantile is 51.04% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price is 287400, futures price is 286350, basis is 0.37%, historical quantile is 79.58% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Spot price is 123050, futures price is 122180, basis is 0.71%, historical quantile is 88.95% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Spot price is 13270, futures price is 12780, basis is 490, historical quantile is 89.48% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price is 73550, futures price is 72740, basis is 67.84% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price is 9450, futures price is 8682, basis is 8.81%, historical quantile is 52.76% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price is 901.6, futures price is 897.7, basis is -3.8, basis rate is -0.42%, historical quantile is 14.10% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price is 11082.0, futures price is 11059.0, basis is -23.0, basis rate is -0.21%, historical quantile is 40.20% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 2900, futures price is 2922.0, basis is -22.0, basis rate is -0.75%, historical quantile is 31.70% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8460, futures price is 8302.0, basis is 158.0, basis rate is 1.90%, historical quantile is 32.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 9438.0, futures price is 9420, basis is -18.0, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 16.60% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2510, futures price is 2391.0, basis is 119.0, basis rate is 4.98%, historical quantile is 67.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price is 10370, futures price is 10061.0, basis is 309.0, basis rate is 3.07%, historical quantile is 80.60% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price is 2170, futures price is 2125.0, basis is 45.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 64.10% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price is 2560, futures price is 2432.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 5.26%, historical quantile is 65.10% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2511)**: Spot price is 11200, futures price is 11320.0, basis is -120.0, basis rate is -1.06%, historical quantile is 39.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price is 2806.0, futures price is 2780, basis is -26.0, basis rate is -0.98%, historical quantile is 39.50% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 14630, futures price is 13325.0, basis is 1305.0, basis rate is 9.79%, historical quantile is 86.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5870, futures price is 5496.0, basis is 374.0, basis rate is 6.80%, historical quantile is 65.50% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 8744.0, futures price is 8600, basis is -144.0, basis rate is -1.65%, historical quantile is 11.90% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 11145.0, futures price is 9500, basis is -1645.0, basis rate is -14.76%, historical quantile is 27.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para-xylene (PX511)**: Spot price is 6553.1, futures price is 6504.0, basis is 49.1, basis rate is -1.64%, historical quantile is 12.50% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4534.0, futures price is 4480.0, basis is -54.0, basis rate is -1.99%, historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 4165.0, futures price is 4100.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.02%, historical quantile is 75.40% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price is 6370.0, futures price is 6200.0, basis is 170.0, basis rate is 2.15%, historical quantile is 74.00% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price is 6775.0, futures price is 6743.0, basis is 32.0, basis rate is 4.43%, historical quantile is 75.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2307.0, futures price is 2225.0, basis is -82.0, basis rate is 0.95%, historical quantile is 53.80% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1550.0, futures price is 1597.0, basis is -47.0, basis rate is -2.25%, historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 7100.0, futures price is 7037.0, basis is 63.0, basis rate is 1.82%, historical quantile is 56.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6755.0, futures price is 6722.0, basis is 33.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 47.80% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4735.0, futures price is 4640.0, basis is -95.0, basis rate is -3.74%, historical quantile is 32.10% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2546.9, futures price is 2470.0, basis is 76.9, basis rate is 5.13%, historical quantile is 70.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price is 4548.0, futures price is 4070.0, basis is 478.0, basis rate is 6.44%, historical quantile is 47.60% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price is 3490.0, futures price is 3328.0, basis is 162.0, basis rate is 10.82%, historical quantile is 93.20% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price is 11500.0, futures price is 11220.0, basis is 280.0, basis rate is 2.67%, historical quantile is 61.10% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1207.0, futures price is 1128.0, basis is -79.0, basis rate is -7.00%, historical quantile is 43.90% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1240.0, futures price is 1160.0, basis is -80.0, basis rate is -6.90%, historical quantile is 14.07% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15315.0, futures price is 14650.0, basis is -665.0, basis rate is -4.54%, historical quantile is 59.91% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4616.8, futures price is 4592.2, basis is -24.6, basis rate is -0.54%, historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 2975.8, futures price is 2974.9, basis is 0.9, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 62.00% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7398.2, futures price is 7266.0, basis is -132.2, basis rate is -1.82%, historical quantile is 0.60% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7533.8, futures price is 7340.4, basis is -193.4, basis rate is -2.64%, historical quantile is 4.20% [1] - **2-year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price is 102.35, futures price is 0.00, conversion factor is 0.9765, basis is 0.00, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 27.20% [1] - **5-year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price is 105.66, futures price is 99.37, conversion factor is 0.9405, basis is 0.09, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 27.70% [1] - **10-year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price is 107.96, futures price is 100.11, conversion factor is 0.9264, basis is 0.10, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 27.70% [1] - **30-year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price is 128.87, futures price is 114.02, conversion factor is 1.1271, basis is 0.35, basis rate is 0.31%, historical quantile is 50.80% [1] Other Metals - **Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF511)**: Spot price is 5436, futures price is 5578, basis is 142, basis rate is 2.61%, historical quantile is 75.30% [5]

Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the pressure on pig sales during the double festivals will gradually ease. If there is concentrated replenishment in secondary fattening, prices are expected to stabilize. However, in the medium to long term, the supply pressure of pigs will continue to be released in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to be optimistic about pig prices. Policy - led industry capacity reduction will take time to show results, and there will still be pressure on spot prices until the first half of next year. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies, and for arbitrage, focus on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse spreads [2]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contracts (pig 2511, pig 2601) decreased, with the 11 - 1 spread down 21.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 4.53%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline in Henan at 1230 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased slightly by 0.04%. Weekly indicators such as white - striped pork prices, piglet prices, and sow prices remained unchanged. The monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% [2]. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View The fundamentals of US soybeans have not improved, and the new Brazilian soybean crop is expected to increase supply, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. There is a supply gap for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of 2026, supporting the M2601 price. Uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that the spot price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal will not improve this year, and the M2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 2950 [5]. Summary of Related Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.38%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Argentina decreased by 32.4%, and that of Brazil in November decreased [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.40%, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Canada in November increased by 2.91% [5]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of some regions remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean - one and soybean - two main contracts increased, and the basis decreased. There is a 600 - million - ton supply gap for domestic 11 - 12 - month shipments [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio increased, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased [5]. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Currently, corn is in the peak listing period. With the concentrated supply pressure, corn will maintain a weak pattern. Although feed and deep - processing enterprises need to replenish inventory seasonally, the current demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Summary of Related Data - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 56.70%, the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the import profit decreased by 16.67%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 6.34%, and the positions increased by 2.01% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 13.04%, the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 371.43%, and the starch - corn spread decreased by 10.15%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 75.00%, and the positions increased by 1.72% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating upwards. If the fundamentals are favorable, there is a chance to break through the previous high; otherwise, there is a risk of a pull - back. For domestic palm oil futures, there is also a risk of a pull - back near the previous high. For soybean oil, due to uncertainties in US industrial demand and potential policy changes in Brazil, the international soybean oil price is under pressure. Although domestic demand for replenishment after the holiday may boost prices, the abundant supply will limit the increase in basis quotes [10]. Summary of Related Data - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price increased by 2.74%, the futures price of Y2601 increased by 2.36%, and the basis increased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 90 [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree increased by 4.42%, the futures price of P2601 increased, and the basis increased. The import cost increased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price increased by 1.95%, the futures price of OI601 increased by 2.03%, and the basis decreased. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, the soybean - palm oil spread decreased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [10]. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Internationally, the supply of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/lb. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. Considering natural disasters, the increase in domestic production needs to be re - evaluated. Sugar prices are in a relatively undervalued area, and the possibility of a sharp decline is limited, expected to oscillate at the bottom between 5400 - 5600 [11]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 increased, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.43%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.86%, the main contract positions decreased by 3.68%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [11]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased, and the difference between imported Brazilian sugar and domestic sugar changed [11]. - **Industry Situation**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased by 160%. In Brazil, the sugar production in the central - southern region in the first half of September increased by 15.72% year - on - year [11]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View US cotton prices are oscillating weakly. Domestically, cotton prices are under pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. After the holiday, the price of cottonseed has stabilized, and the short - term downward space for cotton prices may be limited. Overall, cotton prices are expected to remain weak, and the short - term market may fluctuate [12]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 increased, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.74%, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the main contract positions increased by 2.81%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.66%, and the valid forecast decreased by 50.00% [12]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and the difference between spot and futures contracts decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, imports increased by 40%, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%, the processing profit of spinning enterprises increased by 6.2%, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 8.7% [12]. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. Egg prices will continue to oscillate downward, lacking strong upward momentum [15]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Indicators**: The prices of the egg 11 and 01 contracts decreased, the basis decreased, and the 11 - 01 spread increased by 16.46% [15]. - **Spot Indicators**: The egg - laying hen price remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.70%, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, after the holiday, steel prices rebounded slightly. Steel production decreased slightly during the holiday, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not large. Pay attention to the support levels of 3050 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil January contracts respectively. The unilateral drive is not obvious. For arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread at high levels and convergence of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread are recommended [3]. - For the iron ore industry, on the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the external iron ore swap still follows the domestic price trend. Iron ore has a rebound drive, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Short - term, buy iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601 [5]. - For the coke and coking coal industries, after the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increase, but may face downward pressure due to compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak but the futures have a rebound expectation. For coke, buy coking coal 2601 at low prices in the price range of 1550 - 1750, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on coke, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601. For coking coal, buy at low prices in the price range of 1080 - 1180, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3096, 3159, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3293, 3259, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. Profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing [3]. Supply and Inventory - Daily average pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). Five - major steel products output is 863.3 (down 3.8, - 0.4%) million tons. Rebar output is 203.4, down 3.6 (- 1.7%). Five - major steel products inventory is 1600.7 (up 127.9, 8.7%) million tons, rebar inventory is 659.6 (up 57.4, 9.5%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 (up 32.3, 8.5%) [3]. Demand - Building materials trading volume is 12.0, up 3.9 (49.0%). Five - major steel products apparent demand is 751.4, down 153.4 (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders and spot prices at Rizhao Port have different changes. The 5 - 9 spread is 20.5, up 1.5 (7.9%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread is 19.5, down 1.5 (- 7.1%) [5]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals are 2608.7, up 248.2 (10.5%) million tons. Global weekly shipments are 3279.0, down 196.4 (- 5.7%) million tons. National monthly import volume is 10522.5, up 61.5 (0.6%) [5]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). 45 - port weekly average daily port clearance is 0.0, down 336.4 (- 100.0%) million tons. National monthly pig iron and crude steel outputs are 6979.3 and 7736.9 respectively, both decreasing [5]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 22.5 (- 0.2%) million tons compared to Monday. 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 300.4 (3.1%). 64 steel mills' inventory available days decreased by 4.0 (- 16.0%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices and basis have different changes. For example, coke 01 contract is 1654, up 31 (1.9%); coking coal 01 contract is 1164, up 38 (3.4%) [9]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 66.1, unchanged; 247 steel mills' daily average output is 241.8, down 0.6 (- 0.2%) million tons. Coking coal production: Raw coal output is 836.7, down 31.3 (- 3.6%); refined coal product is 426.3, down 19.8 (- 4.4%) million tons [9]. Demand - 247 steel mills' pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%) million tons. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants for coke demand is 66.1, unchanged [9]. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 909.8, down 10.1 (- 1.1%). Coking coal inventory: Fenwei coal mine refined coal inventory increased by 14.1 (14.5%), and other inventories had different changes [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The reports present daily data on price spreads of stock index futures, government bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping indices, including current values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles [1][3][4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: The current values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of price spreads for different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided, including spot - futures spreads, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Government Bond Futures - **Basis**: The current values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of basis for TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Data on inter - delivery spreads for different contracts and different delivery months are given, along with their changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Information about cross - variety spreads between different government bond futures contracts is provided [3]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes are reported for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: The current values, changes, and historical 1 - year quantiles of basis for different combinations of precious metal contracts are presented [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes, are provided [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Data on inventories and positions of precious metals in different exchanges are given, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. Container Shipping - **Freight Rates**: Spot freight rates for different routes (Europe, US West, US East) and their changes and percentage changes are reported [7][8][9]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract, along with their changes and percentage changes, are presented [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Information on container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, including their changes and percentage changes, is provided [7].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the cycle sector rising strongly, but there was also a phenomenon of rising and then falling. The bond market also had a good start, and the futures of various bond varieties warmed up. Different commodity futures showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed according to the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and external factors of each variety [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the technology main line remaining active. It is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of around 6800 on MO2511 on dips to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the long - holiday, the bond market had a positive start. The 10 - year Treasury bond has investment value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The T2512 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low levels, and after the volatility of options peaks, out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices. For silver, pay attention to whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated. In the non - delivery months of October - November, the upward trend may ease, and long positions should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market may gradually trade on the peak - season expectation, and it is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [2]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The steel price remained stable during the holiday. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when it is high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbance increased during the holiday, and the iron ore is expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 760 - 830, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the holiday, the coal price in the production area was weak. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1080 - 1240, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage problem continues, and long positions should be held. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market supply is sufficient, and the main contract runs in the range of 2850 - 3050. The macro - economy boosts the aluminum price, and the main contract reference range is 20700 - 21300. The price of waste aluminum is firm, and the main contract reference range of aluminum alloy is 20200 - 20800 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory accumulation in London zinc. The main contract reference range is 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: The macro - economy boosts the price, and the main contract reference range is 120000 - 126000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates and strengthens slightly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200. The stainless - steel price fluctuates and weakens, and the main contract reference range is also 12600 - 13200 [2]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The easing of the Middle East situation reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the short - term loose supply - demand situation suppresses the oil price, which is expected to be weak [2]. - **Urea**: The large inventory accumulation suppresses the price. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, and the short - term support level is 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton. For options, after the implied volatility rises, reduce the position when the price is high [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil - price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the November contract and look for opportunities to short on the rebound, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves but is still weak in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the support at around 4500, and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. The processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and it is recommended to increase the position at low levels, but the driving force is limited [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectation weakens in the fourth quarter, and the bottle - chip is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation channel. The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trading was light during the holiday, and the inventory accumulated. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **PVC**: The spot - purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price - driving force is limited. The 2603 contract is expected to fluctuate with styrene and the oil price in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short on the rebound of the November contract and increase the position when the EB - BZ spread is low [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the holiday, the natural - rubber price rebounded, driving the BR price up. It is recommended to go long on NR2512 and short on BR2512 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The post - holiday trading volume increased, and the basis strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2]. - **PP**: The PDH profit was greatly repaired, and the trading improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthened, and the trading was okay. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price rebounded steadily, and the domestic price is under supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 2900 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Pig**: The breeding side increased the slaughter, and the supply pressure was released. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Corn**: The supply increased gradually, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Edible Oils**: The domestic edible - oil price on the continuous contract rose after the holiday. The main contract of palm oil may continue to rise to 9700 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually on the market, and the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **Egg**: The post - holiday demand weakened, and the price is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract when the price is low and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Apple**: The price of high - quality apples is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is not high. The main contract runs around 8500 [2]. - **Jujube**: As the picking time approaches, the long - short game intensifies. The price is bearish in the medium - long term [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to be weak after the holiday. It is recommended to short on the rebound [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the post - holiday price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. - **Rubber**: The raw - material price in Thailand is strong, and the rubber price rose after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The output continues to increase, and the price is under pressure and fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - **Polysilicon**: There may be new progress in the supply - side contraction, and the price rose at the end of the session. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with strong support at 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are continuous supply - side news, and the fundamentals maintain a tight balance. The main - contract price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].