数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的墓差水平排序 免责声明 体系统中的德总统歌语书都"就对影情模以同认为可以的记公开资料，但"发剧的位巡信亲的演响也没完整性不用任何保证。本报告演剧场馆员《志经不同说点。见解及分行方法，并不代表厂发授逝度则同时和放立场，在印情况下，报告的演劇的剧 或所难这的舰好不得动团团最好买卖的出价南你价，我没看看她比很，见谁自但。不表陆高密表这些却"就能的新定都"几到《专业人士」 版权队"发掘的所有，来经广觉脱贫声面段仅，但凡人不得的年都是近行后回到女就该下。复制。知引用、消费，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉得出处少了 发期货"。 | 基差 | 基差率 | 留注 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 历史分位数 | 期货价格 | 现货参考 | 1.11% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 60 | 62.00% | 5478 | 5418 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure if they cannot hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures could break down due to bearish fundamentals, with support around 8,000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The US EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, the Fed's potential rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the first - quarter soybean imports are expected to decrease, which may reduce factory soybean oil inventories [1]. Meals - US soybeans: Lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and high crushing demand. South American new crops are progressing well with strong harvest expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term US soybean prices. - Domestic soybean meal: The loose supply pattern continues, but the market is speculating on longer soybean customs clearance times, and the 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened. The spot pressure remains, but the future supply is expected to tighten [2]. Pigs - The market has some reluctance to sell, and the spot price is stable. The southern curing demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to the potential impact of the epidemic and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. Indian sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar price is weak due to the accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, and the market is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern [8][9]. Corn - North port corn prices rose slightly due to insufficient arrivals, while prices in the Northeast and North China were stable to weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making purchases based on rigid needs. The short - term corn futures are expected to oscillate, and the follow - up supply volume should be monitored [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, although the November national laying - hen inventory decreased slightly. The market has a normal sales speed, but the demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak US export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton faces increasing hedging pressure during the price increase, but the downstream demand is relatively strong, and the price decline space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 pressure level [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The futures price of LH2605 was 11,820 yuan on December 11, down 0.17%. The futures price of LH2603 was 11,220 yuan, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main - contract positions increased by 3.54% to 154,716, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.21% to 523 [4]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 11,360 yuan, up 60 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,330 yuan, up 130 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12,000 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,390 yuan, up 90 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 12,460 yuan, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11,160 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,660 yuan, up 160 yuan [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The futures price of SR2601 was 5,358 yuan on December 11, up 0.56%. The futures price of SR2605 was 5,245 yuan, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan, up 9.71%. The main - contract positions increased by 62.10% to 391,467, and the warehouse receipts increased by 54.29% to 611 [8]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%; the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The in - quota imported Brazilian sugar price was 4,100 yuan, up 2.07%, and the out - of - quota price was 5,195 yuan, up 2.12% [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan on December 11, up 0.09%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,290 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of CS2601 was 2,523 yuan, down 0.36%. The Changchun and Weifang spot prices were unchanged. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92% [10]. Eggs - **Futures**: The futures price of JD01 was 3,144 yuan on December 11, down 0.29%. The futures price of JD02 was 2,968 yuan, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The basis was - 57 yuan, up 33.37% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The futures price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan on December 11, up 0.65%. The futures price of CF2601 was 13,860 yuan, up 0.58%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan, up 50.00%. The main - contract positions decreased by 3.02% to 460,016, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.10% to 2,967 [16]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan, up 0.03%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,013 yuan, up 0.06%. The FC Index M 1% was 12,898 yuan, up 0.40% [16].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day for various stock index futures spreads on December 12, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: IF futures - spot spread is - 12.58 (1 - year quantile: 5.04%, all - time quantile: 59.40%); IH is - 7.23 (1 - year: 0.61%, all - time: 30.70%); IC is - 8.49 (1 - year: 90.10%, all - time: 71.40%); IM is - 7.40 (1 - year: 95.00%, all - time: 75.60%) [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For IF, spreads like next - month minus current - month is - 16.80, etc.; for IH, spreads such as next - month minus current - month is - 7.20; for IC, next - month minus current - month is - 4.20; for IM, next - month minus current - month is - 4.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.5559, IC/IF is 1.5584, etc., are presented with their changes and quantiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for various treasury bond futures spreads on December 12, 2025, including TS, TF, T, and TL, as well as cross - variety spreads [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.7270 (change: - 0.0774, percentile: 35.30%); TF basis is 1.7233 (change: - 0.0742, percentile: 48.90%); T basis is 1.4883 (change: 0.0223, percentile: 51.10%); TL basis is 1.5214 (change: 0.4679, percentile: 51.70%) [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For TS, spreads like current - quarter minus next - quarter is - 0.0040; for TF, current - quarter minus next - quarter is - 0.0350; for T, current - quarter minus next - quarter is 0.1700; for TL, current - quarter minus next - quarter is 0.2100 [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF is - 3.4110, TS - T is - 5.6260, etc., are provided [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on December 11, 2025 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2602 contract is 957.90 yuan/g (increase: 1.50, 0.16%); AG2602 contract is 14488 yuan/kg (increase: 115, 0.80%); etc. [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold is 4309.30 (increase: 51.00, 1.20%); COMEX silver is 63.98 (increase: 1.78, 2.85%); etc. [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 4279.10 (increase: 51.45, 1.22%); London silver is 63.55 (increase: 1.82, 2.94%); etc. [5]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - SHFE gold is - 5.55 (change: - 0.28, 1 - year quantile: 4.40%); Silver TD - SHFE silver is - 41 (change: - 45, 1 - year quantile: 13.20%); etc. [5]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 67.36 (decrease: - 1.10, - 1.61%); SHFE gold/silver is 66.12 (decrease: - 0.42, - 0.64%); etc. [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.14% (increase: 0.01, 0.2%); 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.52% (decrease: - 0.02, - 0.6%); etc. [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory is 91302 (increase: 3, 0.00%); SHFE silver inventory is 780600 kg (increase: 38755, 5.22%); etc. [5]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the settlement price indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on December 12, 2025 [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1509.10 points (increase: 25.4, 1.72%); SCFIS (US West route) is 960.51 (decrease: - 988.3, - 50.71%); SCFI composite index is 1403.13 points (increase: 9.6, 0.69%) [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (main contract) is 1689.0 points (increase: 23.8, 1.43%); basis (main contract) is - 179.9 (change: - 23.8, 15.25%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3352.62 FTEU (increase: 0.02, 0.00%); Shanghai port on - time rate is 40.00% (decrease: - 9.08, - 18.50%); monthly export amount is 3303.50 billion US dollars (increase: 249.97, 8.19%) [6].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓 2000 手左右 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 1000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君多头加仓、空头减仓逾千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓保持稳定 | 华泰多头加仓超千手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -9,138.0 -5,058.0 -9,914.0 -11,346.0 -7,388.0 -3,596.0 -4,162.0 -876.0 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with attention paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and the impact of coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may remain volatile at a high level. However, considering the weak demand and significant decline in production, the spot price is still under pressure. The newly added delivery brands are beneficial for increasing the deliverable volume and warehouse receipts [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum expected to oscillate in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year, suggesting a bullish view on tin prices [6]. Zinc - In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited. The export of refined zinc drives the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc prices may be stronger than that of London zinc prices, with the main contract focusing on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless - steel market is expected to adjust through oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and changes in raw material prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market may remain strongly volatile under the drive of capital sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - For industrial silicon, the spot price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 4.15% [2]. - For aluminum alloy, on December 12th, the price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21600 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.47% [3]. - For aluminum, on December 12th, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 120 yuan/ton to 21890 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.55%. The average price of alumina in various regions decreased to varying degrees [4]. - For tin, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 3300 yuan/ton to 320000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04% [6]. - For zinc, on December 12th, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 40 yuan/ton to 23110 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.17% [8]. - For copper, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 965 yuan/ton to 92665 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.05% [10]. - For nickel, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 118850 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.25% [13]. - For stainless steel, on December 12th, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton [15]. - For lithium carbonate, on December 12th, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton to 93500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.86% [18]. Monthly Spread - For industrial silicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed significantly on December 11th [1]. - For polysilicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as the main contract, the current month - the first continuous contract, etc. changed on December 11th [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [3]. - For aluminum, the monthly spreads of contracts such as AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [4]. - For tin, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [6]. - For zinc, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [8]. - For copper, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [10]. - For nickel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [13]. - For stainless steel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [18]. Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, in November, the national industrial silicon output was 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.05 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 11.17%. The开工 rate also decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, in November, the polysilicon output was 11.46 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 14.48%. The import and export volumes also changed [2]. - For aluminum alloy, in November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.7 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 5.74%. The开工 rate increased to varying degrees [3]. - For aluminum, in November, the alumina output was 743.94 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 4.44%. The output and开工 rate of electrolytic aluminum also changed [4]. - For tin, in October, the tin ore import was 11632 tons, an increase of 2918 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 33.49%. The output and import/export volumes of refined tin also changed [6]. - For zinc, in November, the refined zinc output was 59.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.20 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 3.56%. The import and export volumes also changed [8]. - For copper, in November, the electrolytic copper output was 110.31 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 1.05%. The import volume decreased [10]. - For nickel, in November, the refined nickel output was 33345 tons, a decrease of 3453 tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 9.38%. The import volume decreased significantly [13]. - For stainless steel, in November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a decrease of 1.30 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 0.72%. The import and export volumes and inventory also changed [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the lithium carbonate output was 92350 tons, an increase of 3090 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 3.35%. The demand and inventory also changed [18]. Inventory Changes - For industrial silicon, the weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 56.10 million tons, with a rise of 0.54% [1]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.20 million tons to 29.30 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.00 million GW to 23.30 million GW [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.10 million tons to 5.47 million tons, with a decline of 1.08% [3]. - For aluminum, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 1.20 million tons to 58.40 million tons, with a decline of 2.01% [4]. - For tin, the SHEF weekly inventory increased by 506 tons to 6865 tons, with a rise of 7.96%, and the social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, with a rise of 2.39% [6]. - For zinc, the seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.21 million tons to 12.82 million tons, with a decline of 8.62% [8]. - For copper, the domestic social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 16.30 million tons, with a rise of 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.90 million tons to 8.89 million tons, with a decline of 9.22% [10]. - For nickel, the SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 40782 tons, with a rise of 4.23%, and the social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26848 tons, with a rise of 2.71% [13]. - For stainless steel, the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.34 million tons to 49.54 million tons, with a rise of 0.69% [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 19674 tons to 64560 tons, with a decline of 23.36% [18].

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 2025年12月12日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | | 14900 | 14850 | 50 | 0.34% | | | 全乳基差 | | -285 | -365 | 80 | 21.92% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | | 14350 | 14450 | -100 | -0.69% | | | 非标价差 | | -835 | -765 | -70 | -9.15% | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 49.46 | 49.03 | 0.43 | 0.88% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 5 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports mainly present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. These data cover price changes, basis differences, and historical percentile positions, providing a basis for investors to understand market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was 9.86 on the relevant day [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are detailed data on spreads between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, far - month and current - month, etc. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread was - 16.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.5584, with historical percentile positions provided, indicating their relative valuation levels [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: The 15 - contract IRR was 1.6378, and the basis of different bond futures contracts had various values and changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the T basis was 1.4325 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract quarters such as the current - quarter and next - quarter, and next - quarter and far - quarter were reported. For example, the TF current - quarter minus next - quarter spread was - 0.0350 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF were - 3.3690 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2602, AG2602, etc. showed price increases or decreases compared to the previous day. For example, the AU2602 contract price rose from 951.54 to 956.40, a 0.51% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes. For instance, London gold rose from 4206.59 to 4227.65, a 0.50% increase [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, gold - silver ratios, etc. were presented. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was - 5.27, and the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 68.46 [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, etc. had changes. Inventory data of precious metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX also showed different trends [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 1.72% from 1483.65 to 1509.10, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 50.71% from 1948.77 to 960.51. The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 0.69% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602 (main contract) and others had price changes, and the basis of the main contract changed by 41.01% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.50%, and Shanghai port berthing increased by 5.83%. Monthly export amount increased by 8.19%. Overseas economic indicators such as the euro - zone comprehensive PMI increased by 0.57% [5].