Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. It mainly provides a comprehensive list of various commodity futures and their corresponding spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references. 3) Summary by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore (12509)**: Spot price not clear, futures price 813, basis 27, basis rate 3.39%, historical quantile not provided, reference: 62.5% BRBF (Vale) at Rizhao Port [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price 1260, futures price 1101, basis 160, basis rate 14.49%, historical quantile 69.30%, reference: S1.3 G75 Main Coking Coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1] - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price 79075, futures price 79000, basis 75, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 50.20%, reference: SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price [1] - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price 20660, futures price 20615, basis 45, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 61.87%, reference: SMM A00 Aluminum Average Price [1] - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price 268800, futures price 267880, basis 920, basis rate 0.34%, historical quantile 71.66%, reference: SMM 1 Tin Average Price [1] - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price 771.6, futures price 774.8, basis -3.2, basis rate -0.41%, historical quantile 18.60%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Spot AU (T+D) [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price 9186.0, futures price 9212.0, basis -26.0, basis rate -0.28%, historical quantile 32.70%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver Spot AG (T+D) [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price 3244, futures price 3243, basis not clear, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 33.48%, reference: SMM Alumina Index Average Price [1] - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price 122500, futures price 121620, basis 880, basis rate 0.72%, historical quantile 85.62%, reference: SMM 1 Imported Nickel Average Price [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price 13070, futures price 12840, basis 230, basis rate 1.79%, historical quantile 44.42%, reference: 304/2B:2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (Including Trimming Fee) [1] - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price 5878, futures price 5840, basis 38, basis rate 0.65%, historical quantile 63.00%, reference: Converted Price: 72 Silicon Iron Qualified Blocks: Inner Mongolia - Tianjin Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price 5970, futures price 6028, basis -58, basis rate -0.96%, historical quantile 17.80%, reference: Converted Price: 6517 Silicon Manganese: Inner Mongolia - Hubei Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price 3390, futures price 3248, basis 142, basis rate 4.37%, reference: HRB400 20mm: Shanghai [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price 3440, futures price 3397, basis 43, basis rate 1.27%, reference: Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [1] Chemicals and Energy - **Carbonate Lithium (LC2509)**: Spot price 73900, futures price 73120, basis 780, basis rate 1.07%, historical quantile 62.77%, reference: SMM Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium Average Price [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price 9950, futures price 8915, basis 1035, basis rate 11.61%, reference: SMM Annual Flux 215530 Average Price [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price 4800.0, futures price 4812.0, basis -12.0, basis rate -0.29%, historical quantile 47.10%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA): East China Region [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price 4500.0, futures price 4436.0, basis 64.0, basis rate 1.44%, historical quantile 83.00%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Ethylene Glycol (MEG): East China Region [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price 6610.0, futures price 6482.0, basis 128.0, basis rate 1.97%, historical quantile 73.60%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyester Staple Fiber (1.4D*38mm (Direct Spinning)): East China Market [1] - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price 7370.0, futures price 7358.0, basis 12.0, basis rate 0.16%, historical quantile 28.90%, reference: China: East China: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Styrene [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price 7340.0, futures price 7335.0, basis 5.0, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 21.10%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Linear Low - Density Polyethylene LLDPE (Film Grade): Shandong [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price 7165.0, futures price 7130.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.49%, historical quantile 31.40%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Polypropylene PP (Drawing Grade, Melt Index 2 - 4): Zhejiang [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2593.0, basis 0.8, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 48.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price) Caustic Soda (32% Ion - Membrane Caustic Soda): Shandong Market: Converted to 100% [1] - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price 4448.0, futures price 3992.0, basis 456.0, basis rate 11.42%, historical quantile 62.90%, reference: Market Price: Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Guangzhou Region [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price 3775.0, futures price 3569.0, basis 206.0, basis rate 5.77%, historical quantile 82.70%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Asphalt (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt): Shandong Region [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price 1200.0, futures price 1223.0, basis -23.0, basis rate -1.98%, historical quantile 57.77%, reference: Float Glass: 5mm: Large Plate: Market Price: Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (Daily) [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price 1320.0, futures price 1316.0, basis 4.0, basis rate 0.30%, historical quantile 33.61%, reference: Soda Ash: Heavy - Duty: Market Price: Shahe (Daily) [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price 1780.0, futures price 1738.0, basis 42.0, basis rate 2.42%, historical quantile 24.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Urea (Small Granules): Shandong Region [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price 2392.5, futures price 2404.0, basis -11.5, basis rate -0.48%, historical quantile 27.30%, reference: China: Jiangsu Taicang: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Methanol [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price 5100.0, futures price 5149.0, basis -49.0, basis rate -0.99%, historical quantile 67.80%, reference: China: Changzhou Market: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyvinyl Chloride (SG - 5) [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR9000)**: Spot price 12100.0, futures price 11955.0, basis 145.0, basis rate 1.21%, historical quantile 44.10%, reference: China: Distribution Price: Butadiene Rubber (Daqing, BR9000): PetroChina East China [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price 15100.0, futures price 15065.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.23%, historical quantile 96.87%, reference: Shanghai Market Price: Natural Rubber (Yunnan State - Owned Full - Latex) [1] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price 2540, futures price 2660.0, basis -120.0, historical quantile 15.90%, reference: Guangdong Zhanjiang Factory Price: Common Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price 9490, futures price 9406.0, basis 84.0, basis rate 0.89%, historical quantile 36.50%, reference: Jiangsu: Nantong: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price 2350, futures price 2319.0, basis 31.0, basis rate 1.34%, historical quantile 63.30%, reference: FOB Price: Corn: Xizhou Port [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Some data missing, reference: Jilin: Changchun: Factory Price: Corn Starch [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price 14080, futures price 14125.0, basis -45.0, basis rate -0.32%, historical quantile 41.30%, reference: Henan Factory Price: Live Hogs (External Ternary) [1] - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price 3040, futures price 3576.0, basis -536.0, basis rate -14.99%, historical quantile 5.90%, reference: Hebei: Shijiazhuang: Average Price: Eggs [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price 15473, futures price 14075.0, basis 1398.0, basis rate 9.93%, reference: Xinjiang: Factory - Arrival Price: Cotton: 3128B [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8052.0, basis 548.0, basis rate 6.81%, historical quantile 43.40%, reference: Apples: Delivery Theoretical Price (Daily/Steel Union) [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 8300, futures price 10695.0, basis -2395.0, basis rate -22.39%, historical quantile 6.50%, reference: Grey Jujubes: First - Grade: Wholesale Price: Hebei (Steel Union) [1] - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price 2860, futures price 2990.0, basis -130.0, basis rate -4.35%, historical quantile 15.30%, reference: Jiangsu·Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Common Protein Soybean Meal [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price 8180, futures price 8120.0, basis 60.0, basis rate 0.74%, historical quantile 4.30%, reference: Jiangsu: Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Soybean Oil [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price 8940, futures price 8946.0, basis -6.0, basis rate -0.07%, historical quantile 15.20%, reference: Delivery Price: Palm Oil: Huangpu Port [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price 6120, futures price 5845.0, basis 275.0, basis rate 4.70%, historical quantile 53.80%, reference: Spot Price: White Sugar: Liuzhou Platform [1] - **Paraxylene (PX509)**: Spot price 7018.2, futures price 6890.0, basis 128.2, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 61.40%, reference: China Main Port: Spot Price (CFR): Paraxylene: Converted to RMB [1] Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: Spot price 4135.8, futures price 4122.0, basis -13.8, basis rate -0.34%, historical quantile 30.10% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: Some data missing [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price 6730.0, futures price 6602.0, basis -128.0, basis rate -1.94%, historical quantile 9.60% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price 100.27, futures price 102.36, basis 0.00, historical quantile 25.50%, conversion factor 0.9796 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: Spot price 100.79, futures price 108.40, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 20.80%, conversion factor provided [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price 100.71, futures price 105.72, basis 0.04, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 32.50%, conversion factor 0.9522 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price 134.26, futures price 118.80, basis 0.26, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 35.20%, conversion factor 1.12

| 网材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | 2025年7月29日 | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 品种 | 某差 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | 101 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3330 | 3380 | -50 | 41 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3450 | 3510 | -60 | 161 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3311 | 3418 | 79 | -107 | | | | 142 | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3248 | 3356 | -108 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3289 | 3399 | 101 | -110 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3440 | 3500 | 3 ...

| F미 【2011 1292号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月29日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | aaro | 10100 | -150 | -1.49% | | | 基美(通氧SI5530基准) | 1035 | 375 | ୧୧୦ | 176.00% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10200 | 10350 | -150 | -1.45% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 485 | -175 | 660 | 377.14% | | | 新疆99硅 | 9300 | dvi20 | -150 | -1.59% | | | 墓差(新疆) | J182 | 525 | 680 | 125.71% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 29 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（ ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月29日 | 唱种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -13.82 | -2.66 | 32.70% | 30.10% | H期现价差 | 3.03 | 1.75 | 74.50% | 75.00% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -101.42 | | | | | -17.83 | 8.10% | 2.50% | IM期现价差 | -27.17 | -127.98 | 70.0096 | 9.60% | 次月-当月 | 30.70% | -9.20 | -2.40 | 38.50% | | | | | 李月-当月 | -40.40 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide various data on different futures and related market indicators. Summary by Category 1. Stock Index Futures - **Price - Spread Data**: On July 29, 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different values in terms of spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures spread was - 13.82, with a change of - 2.66 from the previous day, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 32.70% [1]. - **Ratio Data**: Cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., also had specific values and changes. For instance, the IC/IF ratio was 1.5095, with a change of - 0.0007 [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: As of July 28, 2025, the IRR of TS was 1.5937, and the basis of TF was 1.4203, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads (e.g., current - quarter to next - quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) had specific values and historical quantiles [2]. 3. Precious Metals - **Price Changes**: From July 25 to July 28, 2025, domestic and foreign precious metal futures and spot prices changed. For example, the AU2510 contract price decreased from 777.32 to 774.78 yuan/gram, a decline of - 0.33% [4]. - **Basis and Ratio**: The basis and ratio of precious metals also changed. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 3.20, with a change of 0.51 from the previous value, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 23.60% [4]. 4. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: On July 29, 2025, the spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route had different changes. For example, MAERSK's quote increased by 3.03% to 3235 dollars/FEU [6]. - **Index Data**: Shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI showed different degrees of decline. For instance, SCFIS (European route) decreased by - 3.50% from July 21 to July 28, 2025 [6]. 5. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data**: On July 29, 2025, at 22:00, data on US June JOLTs job vacancies and US July Conference Board consumer confidence index were to be released [7]. - **Domestic Data**: Data on various domestic commodities such as manganese silicon, iron ore, polyester, glass, and polysilicon were expected to be updated on the same day, including inventory, port throughput, and production - sales ratios [7].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price declined slightly due to the cooling of market sentiment. The spot - end downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the market was in a state of expected inventory accumulation during the off - season. Considering potential factory复产, short - term prices are under pressure. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [2]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy season, and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts supports a short - term price rebound. However, the subsequent high - capacity operation pattern is difficult to change, and the market remains slightly oversupplied. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price followed the decline of the aluminum price. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macroscopically, the market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut in the US, but the timing is uncertain. Domestically, the "anti - involution" policy may affect the copper smelting capacity. Fundamentally, copper is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The short - term price is boosted by positive macro - sentiment, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77000 - 80000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate of the global and domestic zinc mines in May and June fell short of expectations. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The zinc price has rebounded due to positive macro - policies, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. The tin price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the supply of nickel ore has become relatively loose. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120000 - 128000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuated weakly. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The supply of stainless steel is under pressure, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price fluctuated sharply. The supply side has increased uncertainties, mainly around mine - related issues in Qinghai and Jiangxi. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable but not significantly boosted. The overall inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20660 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1665 yuan/ton, up 12.4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina output was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79075 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference was 960 yuan/ton, up 14.17% from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22650 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1711 yuan/ton, down 123.74 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc output was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 268800 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 65.00 US dollars/ton, down 55.17% from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous value; the SMM refined tin output was 13810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous value [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 123200 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value; the 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price was 912 yuan/nickel point, up 0.22% from the previous value [13]. Supply and Inventory - The output of Chinese refined nickel products was 31800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12850 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value [15]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73900 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous value; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 805 US dollars/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the demand was 93815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [17].

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月29日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 210 | 253 | -43 | - ...

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The main contract of industrial silicon opened low, fluctuated lower, and hit the daily limit in the afternoon. It was pressured by the limit - down of coking coal futures and the inventory - building pressure due to weakening demand. Although the output of industrial silicon increased slightly month - on - month, the demand for silicone was expected to decline by about 3% due to a fire at a large - scale silicone enterprise. However, the increase in polysilicon output could offset the decline in silicone demand. After the sharp rise in industrial silicon futures last week, the arbitrage window opened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The short - term market cooled after the exchange announced risk prevention measures. If holding short positions, hold them cautiously. For the 09 contract with a large open interest, manage positions and risks well. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on industrial silicon production [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 1.49% from July 25th to July 28th, and its basis increased by 176.00%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 1.45%, and its basis increased by 377.14%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon decreased by 1.59%, and its basis increased by 125.71% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 22.22%, while the spreads of 2509 - 2510, 2510 - 2511 decreased by 30.77% and 27.27% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon output decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's output decreased by 20.55%, Yunnan's output increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's output increased by 145.65%. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.49%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.23%, Sichuan's decreased by 3.70%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.19%. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.81%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 4.70% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The main contract of polysilicon opened low, fluctuated higher, then followed the market sentiment and hit the daily limit. It rebounded at the end of the session, possibly due to the market's expectation of positive news from the silicon material integration meeting. After the sharp rise in polysilicon futures last week, the arbitrage window opened, and the upstream enterprises' hedging enthusiasm increased. The number of warehouse receipts is expected to continue to increase. From the supply - demand perspective, the weekly output of polysilicon increased by 10% to 2.55 million tons, and the future output center will move up. The demand side is still weak. With the increase in warehouse receipts at high prices with short - term supply increase and demand decrease, the price is expected to return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to risk management. Also, pay attention to the impact of anti - involution policies on production capacity and output [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 35.80%. - The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon battery cells, and some components increased slightly [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The price of PS2506 decreased by 3.17%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507, PS2509 - PS2510, and PS2511 - PS2512 increased, while others decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers increased by 0.90%, and the output of polysilicon increased by 10.87%. - Monthly: The output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%, the import volume of polysilicon increased by 16.59%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, the output of silicon wafers increased by 1.34%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers decreased by 6.73% [3]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment weakened, and the rubber price fell from a high level. One can try to short with a light position. Pay attention to the increase in raw material supply after the weather improves in the main producing areas. The supply was affected by continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia, which hindered rubber tapping and kept raw material prices strong. The demand was restricted by the rainy season, and most channel merchants were digesting inventory. Towards the end of the month, the enthusiasm for purchasing may increase, but it has limited impact on the overall market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber decreased by 1.63%, and its basis increased by 114.89%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.65%, and the non - standard price spread increased by 24.74%. - The prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market dropped to zero [5]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 9 - 1 decreased by 1.96%, and the spread of 5 - 9 increased by 1.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in May increased, with Thailand's production increasing by 157.52%. - The domestic tire output in June increased by 0.74%, and the tire export volume decreased by 2.44%. - The import volume of natural rubber in June increased by 2.21%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.28%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE increased by 1.93% [5]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Recently, log futures have been fluctuating repeatedly due to weak demand. Last week, the inventory decreased due to reduced arrivals and slightly improved demand. This week, the arrival and unloading of ships are expected to increase, and the demand in the log spot market remains under pressure. The market generally corrected on Monday, and the market will adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the 2509 log contract increased by 0.12%. The prices of some spot logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged, and the new round of foreign quotation remained at 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [6]. Supply - The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 2.12%. The number of ships decreased by 8.62%. The national coniferous log inventory decreased by 120,000 cubic meters to 3.17 million cubic meters as of July 25th [6]. Demand - The daily average unloading volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.41 million cubic meters as of July 25th [6]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Soda Ash The market sentiment changed after the daily limit down yesterday. The previous sharp rise was driven by coal production reduction news and relevant policies. The market expected the elimination of backward production capacity. Although the spot sales improved and inventory decreased in the past two weeks, soda ash still faced an obvious oversupply situation in the medium - term. After the second - quarter photovoltaic installation rush, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity slowed down, and the float glass production capacity was flat with pressure in the second half of the year. There may be further cold - repair expectations. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will face more pressure. Track policy implementation and upstream alkali plant load adjustment. The short - term market fluctuated sharply due to policy and news, and today's limit - down returned to the fundamental logic. Manage risks well [7]. Glass The market sentiment changed after the daily limit down yesterday. The previous sharp rise was driven by news of coal production reduction, relevant policies, and a document on air pollution prevention in the glass industry. The market expected the elimination of backward production capacity. The spot market was boosted by the futures market, with many regions having a sales - to - production ratio over 100% and spot prices rising. However, currently in the summer rainy season, the deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is low. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess production capacity. Track the implementation of regional policies. The current market is mainly driven by sentiment, with sharp fluctuations. Manage risks well [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased to varying degrees. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 also increased, with the 2509 contract increasing by 4.21%. - The 05 basis decreased by 7.49% [7]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China increased, with North China increasing by 3.70%. - The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased, and the 05 basis increased by 17.26% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.28%, and the weekly production decreased by 1.28%. - The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% [7]. Real Estate Data - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7].