Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory**: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - **Prices**: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - **价差**: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - **Prices**: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].

供应方面,云南及江西地区冶炼厂加工费月环比上涨2000元/吨,12月进口锡精矿实物量 17637吨,折金属5191.6吨,环比增长13.3%,同比增长40.2%;截至3月17日,从印尼交易 所已出口2085吨锡锭,预计后期印尼出口水平或将稳定。需求方面,下游采购偏谨慎,下 游企业将逐步开始复产复工,但订单情况较为平淡,下游电子、光伏等行业当前终端消费 表现不及预期，企业规模性补库意愿不强。综上所述，中东局势持续胶着，同时美联储释 放鹰派信号令年内降息预期大幅缩水,预计短期锡价偏弱震荡,关注锡价35万元一线表 现;对锡价中长期看涨逻辑依旧存在,短期调整或提供长线多单布局机会 锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年3月19日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 现货价格及基差 品种 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 SMM 1#锡 369500 -10850 -2.85% 380350 SMM 1#锡升贴水 1650 1900 -250 -13.16% 元/吨 长江 1#锡 370000 380850 -10850 -2.85% LME 0-3升贴水 -203.00 -91.00 -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig industry is in a bottom - oscillating adjustment period, with the overall trend of "short - term stabilization and decline, medium - term slight recovery, and further pressure release in the second half of the year". Industry reshuffle is accelerating, and cost control and model innovation are the keys for enterprises to break through [16]. - The long - term industry losses will lead to a reshuffle, and enterprises with sufficient funds and good cost - control capabilities will stand out. The pig price is expected to struggle at the bottom for a long time, and it is recommended to mainly use reverse hedging operations in the futures market, and long - term allocation can focus on high - quality breeding stocks [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Research Summary 3.1.1. Feed Link - Some feed enterprises face the pressure of declining sales. The core reasons are the recurrence of diseases in Shandong from mid - October to early November last year, which led to an early increase in pig slaughter volume, reducing feed demand. Coupled with the low pig price and rising feed price, the breeding end is cautious about restocking, further suppressing feed consumption. Enterprises expect feed sales to gradually recover after April [5]. - In terms of raw material procurement, affected by the mildew of North China corn, enterprises mainly purchase corn from the Northeast, with a transportation cost of 200 - 300 yuan/ton. To reduce the impact of toxins, enterprises implement refined proportioning. Piglet feed uses all Northeast corn, and medium and large pig feed uses a combination of Northeast and local corn. The overall inventory is relatively sufficient, and the current enthusiasm for restocking is limited [5]. - Affected by the increase in raw material prices after the Spring Festival, the feed price has been raised synchronously. The sales volume in March is expected to decline by 30% year - on - year, which is in line with the historical trend after the Spring Festival. However, the sales volume of teaching and protection feed is expected to improve slightly month - on - month, indicating that the inventory of piglets in the market is still at a high level [5]. - For raw material price prediction, enterprises believe that soybean meal is supported by the cost of US soybeans and international freight in the short term and has increased in price, but the overall supply is loose, so they do not blindly expect a high price. Corn still has room for price increase, and the subsequent price is expected to reach 2600 - 2700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.1.2. Breeding Link - The breeding end is currently facing multiple pressures such as low pig prices, increased costs, and high inventory. The enthusiasm for restocking is differentiated, and enterprises of different scales show different business situations. Although the industry is generally in a loss state, the adjustment of production capacity is very cautious [7]. - In terms of production capacity, the current industry production capacity is still at a high level. Although the data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the number of fertile sows in the country has decreased to 39.6 million, the absolute value is still high. The impact of losses and diseases at the end of last year on production capacity is relatively limited. Breeding enterprises have no obvious intention to actively reduce production capacity, only those with financial difficulties reduce production capacity passively. The reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is mostly for capacity transfer, and the actual slaughter volume of sows has not increased significantly, and the price of culled sows is stable [7]. - In terms of restocking, the current enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high. Affected by factors such as low pig prices, rising feed costs, and the inversion of standard and fat pig prices, secondary fattening households mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Most stocking enterprises' pens are empty. It is expected that the enthusiasm for purchasing 15kg piglets is higher than that for 7kg piglets. Enterprises are optimistic about the price before the Zhongyuan Festival and believe that the decline space of piglet prices is limited because the restocking demand in Shandong from March to May is relatively high. In Henan, there is a situation of "high piglet prices and cautious restocking", and only a small number of secondary fattening households buy at the bottom [9]. - In terms of cost and profit, there are differences among enterprises. The current fattening cost of individual farmers in Shandong is about 5.5 yuan/jin, the fattening cycle is 5 - 5.5 months, and the daily weight gain is 1.6 jin. The daily weight gain of secondary fattening is about 2 jin. The slaughter cost of stocking enterprises is about 5.6 yuan/jin (excluding disease losses), and the cost after disease losses exceeds 6 yuan/jin. The current pig price is about 5 yuan/jin, and the industry is in a loss state. In addition, slaughterhouses have increased the deduction for large pigs, and the supply of pigs in the 125 - 150KG weight range is sufficient, and the price decline is greater than that in the 105 - 125KG range. Breeding enterprises have difficulties in selling and are forced to reduce prices, and the pressure of slaughtering large pigs is relatively large. Group enterprises are still further reducing costs and will further lower the target cost in 2026, achieving cost - control advantages through integrated layout [10]. - In terms of diseases and hedging, there are still sporadic epidemics, which increase the breeding cost and risk. The current full - industry loss state and the investment in disease prevention and control costs undoubtedly increase the burden on enterprises. If there is a high - incidence period of epidemics in the future, it may increase the risk of concentrated outbreaks of diseases at the breeding end. In terms of hedging, enterprises in Shandong and Henan have a high enthusiasm for hedging, and the model is mature. They are more enthusiastic about hedging in the piglet fattening link. The large - scale participation of the breeding end industry also has a profound impact on the futures market trend [13]. 3.1.3. Slaughter and Trade Link - In the slaughter link, it is currently facing problems such as weak demand, seasonal decline in sales volume, and financial pressure. Although the pig price is at a low level, the current enthusiasm for segmentation and warehousing is not high. However, some more radical enterprises believe that the risk of making frozen products at a pig price of about 5 yuan/jin is low and are gradually segmenting and warehousing. The weak performance of the consumer end is the core problem faced by slaughter enterprises. The current low pork price has an insignificant effect on stimulating consumption, and the willingness of terminal consumers to switch from beef and poultry to pork is not strong, which is in line with the situation where the decline in poultry prices affects the demand for pig products. At the same time, the industry has over - capacity and a long payment period, which further increases the pressure on slaughter enterprises. Therefore, the current overall warehousing rhythm is still relatively slow [14]. - In the trade link, single transportation businesses have mostly transformed due to financial pressure, and enterprises mostly adopt the "transportation + stocking" model. Slaughterhouses generally have a long payment period, and traders face prominent financial pressure. Large pigs in Shandong mainly flow to Anhui and Zhejiang, but affected by the sufficient supply of large pigs in the South, the number of large pigs transported from the North to the South has decreased, which is consistent with the current situation of the structural mismatch between the supply and demand of pigs in the North and the South. Although there is a gap in the main sales areas in the South, the current supply is sufficient, resulting in a decline in cross - regional transportation volume [15]. 3.1.4. Market Outlook - The current pig industry is in a bottom - oscillating adjustment period. Although there are differences in market predictions among all parties, the overall trend is "short - term stabilization and decline, medium - term slight recovery, and further pressure release in the second half of the year". At the same time, the industry reshuffle is accelerating, and cost control and model innovation are the keys for enterprises to break through [16]. - In terms of market prediction, most enterprises believe that March - April is the low - price range of pig prices in the first half of the year, and the probability of the price being lower than this level in the future is small and the duration is short. From May to June, the price is expected to rise with the decrease in supply. It is difficult to judge the annual high point, and it is expected that reaching 7 yuan/jin is already good. Regarding the market in the second half of the year, there are different views in the market. Some believe that it is expected to recover, but some enterprises believe that there is no substantial reduction in production capacity at present. Although the industry is in a loss state, the time and space of the loss are limited, the breeding end has sufficient funds, and it is difficult to reduce production capacity, so the expectations for the second half of the year have been lowered [16]. 3.2. Research Minutes 3.2.1. Shandong Enterprise A - The enterprise mainly engages in pig feed (with a small amount of ruminant feed). The designed production capacity of pig feed is 180,000 tons, and the current output is about 60,000 tons. It has 20,000 fattening pens, and the scale of the cooperative fattening pig enterprise reaches 100,000 heads. In terms of feed sales, the pig feed sales volume in February was about 3,000 tons, a significant halving month - on - month, and the sales volume from December to February continued to decline month - on - month. It is expected to start to recover in April, mainly because the recurrence of diseases in Shandong from mid - October to early November last year led to an increase in pig slaughter volume, resulting in an early decline in pig feed sales [21]. - In terms of restocking, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in Linyi is not high. Affected by low pig prices, rising feed costs, and the inversion of standard and fat pig prices, secondary fattening households mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. The enterprise's 20,000 pens and most of its cooperative customers' pens are currently empty. It plans to purchase 15kg piglets recently and slaughter them before the Zhongyuan Festival on August 27 (with a slaughter weight of 270 - 280 jin). It is optimistic about the price before the festival and believes that the decline space of piglet prices is limited because the restocking demand in Shandong from March to May is relatively high [21]. - In terms of fattening cost, the enterprise indicates that the current cost from purchasing 15kg piglets (450 yuan/head) to slaughter is about 6 yuan/jin, and the fattening cost of individual farmers is about 5.5 yuan/jin. The fattening cycle is 5 - 5.5 months, and the daily weight gain is 1.6 jin. The daily weight gain of secondary fattening is about 2 jin [21]. - In terms of circulation, large pigs in Shandong mainly flow to Anhui and Zhejiang. Affected by the sufficient supply of large pigs in the South, the number of large pigs transported from the North to the South has decreased [22]. - In terms of hedging, it is recommended to use over - the - counter options for hedging, which can be combined with on - exchange hedging to reduce risks. Enterprises in Shandong have a high enthusiasm for hedging [22]. - In terms of feed raw materials, the enterprise's corn inventory is maintained for more than one month, with daily rotation in and out. Affected by the mildew of North China corn, it mainly purchases corn from the Northeast, with a transportation cost of 200 - 300 yuan/ton. It proportions corn for different pig feed stages to reduce toxins. Piglet feed uses all Northeast corn, and medium and large pig feed uses a combination of Northeast and local corn. The enterprise is optimistic about the domestic corn price and expects it to reach 2600 - 2700 yuan/ton [22]. - In the future, the enterprise will focus on promoting piglet procurement, hedging operations, and raw material procurement, strengthen market monitoring, and pay attention to the trends of pig prices and raw material prices. In terms of the market, the short - term pig price is expected to improve in April, stabilize in May, improve in June, and may decline in July, and the long - term upward space is limited [22]. 3.2.2. Shandong Enterprise B - The enterprise mainly engages in the sales of segmented products. The current daily slaughter volume is more than 5,000 heads, half of the peak of more than 10,000 heads before the Spring Festival. The average weight of purchased pigs is 100 - 110 kg, the same as the same period. The pig sources mainly come from local Shandong and northern Jiangsu. In terms of pig prices, the enterprise believes that March - April may be the low price of the year, and the probability of the price being lower than this level in the future is small and the duration is short. It is relatively optimistic about the pig price in the second half of the year. The short - term average price in March is 5.2 - 5.4 yuan/jin, slightly rising to about 5.6 yuan/jin in April. The supply is expected to decrease from May to June, and the price is expected to rise. It is difficult to judge the annual high point, and it is expected that reaching 7 yuan/jin is already good [23]. - In terms of enterprise operation, the fresh - sales rate is about 50%, down from 70 - 80% before the Spring Festival. Warehousing is mainly order - based, with 25% being customer orders and 25% being active + passive warehousing. In terms of product cost, the price of No. 4 meat is 15,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the price of No. 2 meat is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton. In the frozen - product storage cost, the daily rent per ton of goods is 1 yuan (30 yuan/ton per month). Coupled with handling and transfer fees, the monthly fixed cost is about 100 yuan/ton. The enterprise's designed frozen - product storage capacity is about 10,000 tons, and the current inventory is 3,000 - 4,000 tons (including customer orders and the amount of active segmentation and warehousing). It believes that the risk of making frozen products at a pig price of about 5 yuan/jin is low and is gradually segmenting and warehousing, planning to complete the target volume in about three months. At the same time, the enterprise pays attention to production refinement and channel construction, and some enterprises avoid payment - period risks [23]. - In terms of supply and demand, the decline in poultry prices affects the demand for pig products. The prices of frozen and fresh meat are close, and the discount situations are different for different uses. The industry has over - capacity, and there are differences in the management and production capacity of slaughterhouses in the North and the South. Some southern enterprises rely on contract slaughtering. The enterprise improves its competitiveness by optimizing production and sales and cooperating to stabilize customers [24]. - In terms of inventory, deep - processing enterprises increase inventory moderately as needed. In terms of funds, supply - chain finance provides support, and the enterprise uses funds carefully. Looking forward to the future, the short - term price will rise slowly, and the medium - term demand is expected to increase. The enterprise will optimize inventory, expand channels, and strictly control costs [25]. 3.2.3. Shandong Enterprise C - The enterprise is a large - scale pig trading enterprise in the local area, with business covering the whole country. The average daily trading volume is about 50 trucks, reaching 120 trucks at the peak before the Spring Festival. Each truck is 15 - 18 tons, and the weight of each truck of large - weight pigs exceeds 16 tons. The purchased pig sources are mainly from provinces in the Northwest and the South with low prices and price - difference advantages [26]. - Currently, the stocking volume in the Shandong region is large, and the local fattening supply is sufficient. The enterprise's own stocking volume is about 30,000 heads, which is relatively small among large - scale stocking enterprises in the local area. Shandong stocking enterprises had a long - term profit in the early stage and increased the volume rapidly last year. They have been in a loss state since September last year. The agency - raising fee is 200 - 240 yuan/head. Because the average weight per head is lower than that in the South, the agency - raising fee is lower than that in the South [26]. - At the breeding end, the slaughter cost of stocking enterprises is about 5.6 yuan/jin (excluding disease losses), and the cost after disease losses exceeds 6 yuan/jin. The current pig price is about 5 yuan/jin, and the industry is in a loss state. Shandong slaughterhouses have increased the deduction for large pigs, 80 - 100 yuan per head. The supply of pigs in the 125 - 150KG weight range is sufficient, and the price decline is greater than that in the 105 - 125KG range. Breeding enterprises have difficulties in selling and are forced to reduce prices [26]. - At the industry level, single transportation businesses have mostly transformed due to financial pressure, and enterprises mostly adopt the "transportation + stocking" model. Slaughterhouses generally have a long payment period, and traders face prominent financial pressure [26]. - The process of taking delivery in the futures market is cumbersome. In the North, 72 - hour disinfection is required in advance for delivery, and the intangible cost is high. Slaughterhouses have a low participation rate and are prone to losses [26]. - All parties believe that the current bottom - oscillating of pig prices has just started and is expected to last for about three months. Enterprises need to have sufficient funds and good cost - control capabilities to survive the difficult period [27]. 3.2.4. Henan Enterprise A - The

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Zinc - Zinc supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict upward price movement. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly, with the main contract supported at 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance [2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory - related structural contradictions that previously drove copper prices up have been largely resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and may face a phased adjustment. However, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments may offer opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is expected to find support around 98,000 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Overseas macro uncertainties are increasing, and raw material - end contradictions are accumulating, providing support for prices. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. The market will likely see an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract trading in the 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with a strategy of being bearish on rallies. For aluminum, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and prices will oscillate at high levels. The LME's spot tightness and high domestic inventories create a divergence in drivers. In the long run, the global supply - demand balance remains tight, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract for Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade between 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - High raw material costs strongly support ADC12 prices, but slow - growing demand and the negative effects of high prices are emerging. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract trading between 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak due to the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the impact on market risk sentiment. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices remains, and short - term adjustments may offer long - term long - position opportunities. Attention should be paid to the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties. The trading momentum of the new - energy sector is weakening. Fundamentally, the market maintains resilience with both supply and demand increasing. The market will likely see wide - range oscillatory adjustments in the short term, with the main contract trading between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - Rising costs may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Currently, supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and inventories are accumulating again. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection, electricity prices, and cost fluctuations. It is advisable to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions on dips [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing oversupply pressure, with prices under continuous downward pressure due to large inventories. The relationship between downstream demand and prices is weak. In the long run, the demand for energy - security guarantees may benefit the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, or consider going long after the market stabilizes while controlling positions and setting stop - losses [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 24,080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss are - 20.66 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, an increase of 13.94 percentage points [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference is 475 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 20.18% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, an increase of 10.45 percentage points [4]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 141,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.28%. The futures import profit and loss are 945 yuan/ton, down 302 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 24.22% [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in the current period was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory was 63,681 tons, an increase of 3.10% week - on - week [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The current price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The current price - futures price difference is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.36% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.9008 million tons, an increase of 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 532,100 tons, a decrease of 1.19% week - on - week [8]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.55%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss are - 4,222 yuan/ton, down 248.1 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.8%, an increase of 16.40 percentage points [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 is - 420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month. The regenerated aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, a decrease of 22.6 percentage points week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650 yuan/ton, down 6,050 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss are - 13,594.90 yuan/ton, down 5,300.71 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 63.91% [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, an increase of 16.81% year - on - year. In February, the SMM refined tin production was 15,100 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.63%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 6,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,900 yuan/ton from the previous value [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% month - on - month [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The current price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 5.41% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 275,700 tons, a decrease of 26.58% month - on - month. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, a decrease of 21.33 percentage points [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 0 yuan/kg, down 46,000 yuan/kg from the previous value, with a decline of 100%. The main futures contract price is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.68% [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 2.59% week - on - week [20].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios on March 16, 2026 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: For example, the IF futures - spot spread is - 11.14, with a change of 18.02 from the previous day, and it is at the 70.00% all - time percentile and 36.70% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads such as next - month minus current - month, far - month minus current - month are provided for each futures type. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread is - 74.40, with a change of - 7.00 from the previous day, at the 9.00% all - time percentile and 13.10% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like IC/IF, IC/IH, etc. are given. For example, the IC/IF ratio is 1.7634, with a change of - 0.0186 from the previous day, at the 88.90% all - time percentile and 98.00% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads on March 16, 2026 [2]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: For example, the TS basis is 1.3488, with a change of 0.0017 from the previous trading day, and it is at the 14.50% percentile since listing [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for each treasury bond futures type are presented. For instance, the TS current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is 0.0080, with a change of - 0.0220 from the previous trading day, at the 21.30% percentile since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.4990, with a change of - 0.0030 from the previous trading day, at the 10.50% percentile since listing [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on March 16, 2026 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2604, AG2606, etc. and foreign futures closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc. are given, along with their changes and percentage changes from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are presented [4]. - **Basis**: Basis values such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentiles are provided [4]. - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc. are given, along with their changes and percentage changes from the previous day [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values of 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are presented [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and positions of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, COMEX gold, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are provided [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Funds Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report [1] - Date: March 16, 2026 [1] - Data Date: March 13, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Variety Funds Inflow and Outflow - The data shows the percentage of funds inflow and outflow for various varieties, with the scale ranging from -10.00% to 10.00% [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - **Morgan Chase**: The net position and daily position increase/decrease are presented, with the percentage scale from 0 to 12% [2] - **Qiankun Futures**: The net position and daily position increase/decrease are shown, with the scale from -10% to 20% [3] - **Guoxin Futures and UBS Futures**: The net position and daily position increase/decrease are presented, with the scale from -6.00% to 4.00% [3] - **CITIC Futures**: The net position and daily position increase/decrease are shown, with the percentage scale from -10% to 15% [5] - **Guotai Junan**: The net position and daily position increase/decrease are presented, with the scale from -25.00% to 15.00% [5]

Report Information - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Ye Qianning [2] - Author's Qualification Number: Z0016628 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1292 [2] Commodity Information Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5928, futures price is 5888, basis is 40, basis rate is 0.68%, historical quantile is 60.40% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6170, futures price is 6176, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.10%, historical quantile is 23.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3250, futures price is 3142, basis is 108, basis rate is 3.44%, historical quantile is 50.10% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3270, futures price is 3505, basis is -25, basis rate is -0.76%, historical quantile is 9.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 850, futures price is 812, basis is 38, basis rate is 4.69%, historical quantile is 31.20% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1734, futures price is 1738, basis is -3, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 63.24% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1243, futures price is 1178, basis is 65, basis rate is 5.52%, historical quantile is 40.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2604)**: Spot price is 100515, futures price is 100310, basis is 205, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 74.79% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2604)**: Spot price is 25120, futures price is 24960, basis is 160, basis rate is 0.64%, historical quantile is 90.62% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2695, futures price is 2956, basis is -261, basis rate is -8.81%, historical quantile is 2.86% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2604)**: Spot price is 24010, futures price is 24140, basis is -130, basis rate is -0.54%, historical quantile is 29.79% [1] - **Tin (SN2604)**: Spot price is 386600, futures price is 374110, basis is 12490, basis rate is 3.34%, historical quantile is 98.75% [1] - **Nickel (NISEOF)**: Spot price is 137950, futures price is 136930, basis is 1020, basis rate is 0.74%, historical quantile is 91.45% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2605)**: Spot price is 14450, futures price is 14190, basis is 430, basis rate is 3.03%, historical quantile is 76.39% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 159000, futures price is 152080, basis is 6920, basis rate is 4.55%, historical quantile is 98.45% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SISEOF)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 8675, basis is 525, basis rate is 6.05%, historical quantile is 33.86% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1131.3, futures price is 1133.00, basis is -1.8, basis rate is -0.15%, historical quantile is 48.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2606)**: Spot price is 20887.0, futures price is 20923.0, basis is -36.0, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 28.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9750, futures price is 9768.0, basis is -18.0, basis rate is -0.18%, historical quantile is 21.40% [3] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2591.0, basis is 39.0, basis rate is 1.51%, historical quantile is 53.00% [3] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10540, futures price is 9821.0, basis is 719.0, basis rate is 7.32%, historical quantile is 95.60% [3] - **Corn (C2605)**: Spot price is 2430, futures price is 2386.0, basis is 44.0, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 57.90% [3] - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Spot price is 2800, futures price is 2729.0, basis is 71.0, basis rate is 2.60%, historical quantile is 30.20% [3] - **Live Hogs (LH2605)**: Spot price is 10150, futures price is 11150.0, basis is -1000.0, basis rate is -8.97%, historical quantile is 18.20% [3] - **Eggs (JD2605)**: Spot price is 3000, futures price is 3433.0, basis is -433.0, basis rate is -12.61%, historical quantile is 11.50% [3] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 16650, futures price is 15415.0, basis is 1235.0, basis rate is 8.01%, historical quantile is 85.50% [3] - **White Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5500, futures price is 5447.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate is 0.97%, historical quantile is 7.80% [3] - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9800, futures price is 9998.0, basis is -198.0, basis rate is -1.98%, historical quantile is 14.90% [3] - **Jujubes (C1605)**: Spot price is 7900, futures price is 9095.0, basis is -1195.0, basis rate is -13.14%, historical quantile is 36.60% [3] - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3128.0, basis is 262.0, basis rate is 8.38%, historical quantile is 68.50% [5] - **Soybean Oil (V2605)**: Spot price is 8900, futures price is 8690.0, basis is 210.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 44.00% [5] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX605)**: Spot price is 10128.5, futures price is 10018.0, basis is 110.5, basis rate is 1.10%, historical quantile is 62.90% [3] - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 6930.0, futures price is 6934.0, basis is -4.0, basis rate is -0.06%, historical quantile is 57.30% [3] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 4560.0, futures price is 4729.0, basis is -169.0, basis rate is -3.57%, historical quantile is 3.90% [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF604)**: Spot price is 8400.0, futures price is 8382.0, basis is 18.0, basis rate is 0.21%, historical quantile is 48.70% [3] - **Styrene (EB2604)**: Spot price is 9865.0, futures price is 10000.0, basis is -135.0, basis rate is -1.35%, historical quantile is 9.80% [3] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2825.0, futures price is 2805.0, basis is 20.0, basis rate is 0.71%, historical quantile is 56.70% [3] - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1900.0, futures price is 1889.0, basis is 11.0, basis rate is 0.58%, historical quantile is 20.60% [3] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 8275.0, futures price is 8416.0, basis is -141.0, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 2.30% [3] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 8700.0, futures price is 8603.0, basis is 97.0, basis rate is 1.13%, historical quantile is 54.90% [3] - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 5670.0, futures price is 5724.0, basis is -54.0, basis rate is -0.94%, historical quantile is 70.30% [3] - **Caustic Soda (SH605)**: Spot price is 2093.8, futures price is 2604.0, basis is -510.3, basis rate is -19.59%, historical quantile is 0.50% [3] - **LPG (PG2604)**: Spot price is 6148.0, futures price is 5734.0, basis is 414.0, basis rate is 7.22%, historical quantile is 58.40% [3] - **Asphalt (BU2604)**: Spot price is 3970.0, futures price is 4089.0, basis is -119.0, basis rate is -2.91%, historical quantile is 26.80% [3] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2604)**: Spot price is 15600.0, futures price is 15725.0, basis is -125.0, basis rate is -0.79%, historical quantile is 18.90% [3] - **Glass (FG605)**: Spot price is 976.0, futures price is 1135.0, basis is -159.0, basis rate is -16.29%, historical quantile is 9.05% [3] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price is 1257.0, futures price is 1277.0, basis is -20.0, basis rate is -1.59%, historical quantile is 46.94% [3] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2604)**: Spot price is 8270.0, futures price is 8288.0, basis is -18.0, basis rate is -0.22%, historical quantile is 86.10% [3] - **Propylene (PL2605)**: Spot price is 8050.0, futures price is 8342.0, basis is -292.0, basis rate is -3.50%, historical quantile is 6.40% [3] - **Bottle Chips (PR2605)**: Spot price is 8950.0, futures price is 8306.0, basis is 644.0, basis rate is 7.75%, historical quantile is 99.40% [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 16900.0, futures price is 16765.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 0.80%, historical quantile is 98.32% [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2603.CFF**: Spot price is 4669.1400, futures price is 4658.0, basis is -11.1400, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 36.70% [3] - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price is 2956.8468, futures price is 2957.0, basis is 0.1532, basis rate is 0.01%, historical quantile is 56.20% [3] - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8239.7980, futures price is 8213.8, basis is -25.9980, basis rate is -0.32%, historical quantile is 44.70% [3] - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8214.2926, futures price is 8187.0, basis is -27.2926, basis rate is -0.33%, historical quantile is 50.70% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2606)**: Spot price is 100.03, futures price is 102.47, basis is 0.00, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 29.80%, conversion factor is 0.9762 [3] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2606)**: Spot price is 100.17, futures price is 105.97, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.60%, conversion factor is 0.9450 [3] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2606)**: Spot price is 99.85, futures price is 108.24, basis is 0.07, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 26.20%, conversion factor is 0.9219 [3] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2606)**: Spot price is 121.90, futures price is 111.11, basis is 0.40, basis rate is 0.36%, historical quantile is 58.00%, conversion factor is 1.0935 [3] Data Source - Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [3] Historical Quantile Calculation - Based on the basis levels of each variety in the

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Soybean oil may still have potential upside due to the US biodiesel policy, and Dalian soybean oil may continue to rise after breaking through 8,400 [1]. - Palm oil may face downward pressure as the MPOB report is released and concerns about production growth in March increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil futures may be supported by the escalation of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation pattern, and domestic cotton prices may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with strong long - term demand from spinning mills [2]. Sugar - The international sugar price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar prices are supported by policy expectations and the overall strength of commodities, but the weak sales data in February and the significant increase in inventory may limit the upside [3]. Red Dates - The red date market in the 25/26 production season still has an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction. The cost of warehouse receipts supports the futures price [4]. Apples - The apple futures price has fallen from its high due to the cooling market sentiment. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the low inventory in cold storage supports the futures price [6]. Corn - In the short term, the increase in corn sales and the substitution of wheat may put pressure on corn prices, but the low inventory of downstream enterprises and the need for replenishment will support prices, and the market will remain in a high - level consolidation [9]. Meal - The US soybean price is supported by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, biodiesel expectations, and China's procurement expectations. The domestic meal basis has strengthened, and the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [11]. Pigs - The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low enthusiasm for secondary fattening may lead to the futures and spot prices continuing to bottom out [14]. Eggs - In the short term, the supply of eggs may decline slightly, and the demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The egg price is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 13, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% to 8,990, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.67% to 8,690, and the basis of Y2605 decreased by 5.66% [1]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean oil futures were supported by rising crude oil prices and optimistic biofuel demand. The palm oil was affected by weak exports and potential production growth in March. Rapeseed oil was affected by the war in the Middle East and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 15,415, and the price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton at the factory increased by 0.19% to 16,704 [2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The USDA balance sheet adjusted global production and consumption. The domestic market was affected by the issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas, and spinning mills' demand for cotton was strong in the long term [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.57% to 5,447, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.37% to 5,490 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio supported the international sugar price. The domestic sugar market was affected by policy expectations and weak sales data in February [3]. Red Dates - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of red dates 2605 increased by 0.17% to 9,095, and the spot price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,210 [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The red date market in the 25/26 production season had an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction [4]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of apple 2605 increased by 0.14% to 9,998, and the basis decreased by 6.35% to - 1,525 [6]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The apple spot market showed a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the inventory in cold storage decreased, which supported the futures price [6]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the basis of corn increased by 41.67% to 34, and the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.42% to 2,386 [9]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of corn in the Northeast increased, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises was affected by wheat substitution. Policy factors also had an impact on the market [9]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 2.44% to 3,360, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 2.42% to 3,128 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean price was supported by multiple factors, and the domestic meal basis strengthened. The market was also affected by factors such as oil mill shutdowns and import costs [11]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 0.18% to 11,150, and the spot price in Henan increased by 1% to 10,150 [14]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, weak demand in the off - season, and low enthusiasm for secondary fattening affected the market [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of egg 04 increased by 0.12% to 3,275, and the spot price of eggs in the producing area decreased by 0.58% to 3.10 [16]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of eggs may decline slightly due to factors such as molting and high prices of culled chickens. The demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The market is in a strong cost - support, supply - contraction expectation, and weak real - demand game. Prices are expected to maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations. If the geopolitical tension persists, the price is likely to rise, and chemical products may increase more strongly than crude oil. The 05 contract is expected to perform well [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the short - term market rise is due to the optimistic expectation from the geopolitical conflict. The supply is decreasing, and there is a possibility of price increase, but beware of the market decline when the situation eases. For PVC, the cost is rising, the supply is slightly increasing, the demand is improving, and the price has an upward trend in the short term, but also beware of cost collapse [2]. Urea - The urea spot price is relatively stable near the guidance price, and the futures price fluctuates greatly affected by energy - chemical commodities. The fundamentals change little, and the supply pressure remains. The price will follow the trend of crude - chemical products and may be strong in the short term [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - The Middle - East situation affects the supply of PX, leading to a decline in PTA load. MEG has a high probability of de - stocking in March - April. The prices of polyester products are affected by oil prices and fluctuate greatly. Strategies such as long positions plus put options can be considered [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Glass has a good de - stocking situation, and the price center has slightly increased. It is recommended to wait and see and consider low - buying after the macro is stable [5]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains the pattern of "policy control + geopolitical support". If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for 4 weeks, the supply shortage may intensify, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The price follows the oil price. For styrene, the supply is high, and the profit is under pressure. Both can consider long positions plus put options strategies [9]. Methanol - The current price is mainly dominated by supply interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The follow - up trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict. The 05 - end inventory is expected to be moderately low [10]. LPG - No overall view on LPG is clearly stated in the report. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually released, and the raw material price is strong. The demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16500 - 17500 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 prices all increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with L2605 up 2.19%, L2609 up 2.66%, PP2605 up 3.61%, and PP2609 up 4.09% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 57.54 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.56% to 66.29 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and the powder - material operating rate increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, East - China PVC (both calcium - carbide and ethylene methods), and SH2605, SH2609, V2605, V2609 futures all increased on March 13 compared to March 12 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The downstream demand for caustic soda and PVC is improving [2]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The urea futures prices increased, and the spot price was relatively stable. The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 1.36% to 21.82 million tons, and the operating rate decreased by 1.36% to 92.68% [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - **Price Changes**: WTI crude oil (April) increased by 3.1% to 98.71, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 8.5% to 1060, and CFR China PX decreased by 2.4% to 1274 on March 13 compared to March 12 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 7.6% to 76.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 80.1%. The MEG inventory decreased, and the de - stocking expectation in March - April is strong [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: The glass 2605 and 2609 futures prices increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with 2605 up 1.98% and 2609 up 1.63%. The soda ash 2605 and 2609 futures prices also increased, with 2605 up 1.67% and 2609 up 0.98% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 14.69 million tons [5]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil increased by 2.67% to 103.14, WTI crude oil increased by 3.11% to 98.71, and SC crude oil increased by 5.58% to 754.50 on March 13 compared to March 12 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a very low level. The oil price is affected by geopolitics and policy control [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The price of Brent crude oil (May) increased by 2.7% to 103.14, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 1080 on March 13 compared to March 12. The price of styrene in East - China spot increased by 0.6% to 10040 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation of styrene is expected to slightly de - stock in March [9]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12. The MA2609 closed at 2672, up 3.97% [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.13% to 52.321 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 9.05% to 131.3 million tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27 [10]. LPG - **Price Changes**: The main PG2604 increased by 1.65% to 5734 on March 13 compared to March 12, and the PG2605 increased by 1.60% to 5602 [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9, and the port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227 million tons. The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 81.35 [11]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 2.59% to 16900 on March 13 compared to March 12 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new rubber supply in Yunnan and Hainan is gradually released, and the overseas production area is in the off - season. The demand of tire enterprises has uncertainties [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zinc: The supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict the upside space. With limited short - term macro - level positives, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to focus on zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro - level guidance, with the main contract supported at 23800 - 24000 [2]. - Copper: The short - term price is under pressure due to the resolution of the previous inventory structural contradiction and reduced market risk appetite. There may be a phased adjustment risk, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. It is advisable to follow the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main contract supported around 98000 [4]. - Nickel: Overseas macro uncertainties increase, and raw material - end disturbances support the price. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The bottom support is strong, but further upward drivers need to be transmitted to the real - world end. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134000 - 145000 [5]. - Stainless Steel: Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight with strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. There is a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 14000 - 14500 [8]. - Aluminum: The alumina market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels with news changes, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: High raw material costs support the ADC12 price, but demand improvement is slow, and the negative feedback of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 24500 [12]. - Tin: In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties, and the trading momentum of the new energy sector is weakening. The fundamentals remain resilient, but the optimistic demand expectations have been mostly digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main contract in the range of 148000 - 162000 [16]. - Industrial Silicon: Cost increases may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Supply is growing rapidly, demand is slightly increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions at low prices [19]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to demand - side changes. The long - term development of photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss is - 20.66 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread shows different changes [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan, a decline of 0.15%. The import profit and loss is 34 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread also has corresponding changes [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 141350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan, an increase of 0.28%. The import profit and loss of futures is 945 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 4222 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread has changed [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 392650 yuan/ton, down 6050 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss is - 13594.90 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 159000 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan, an increase of 0.63%. The monthly spread has changed [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 0 yuan/kilogram, down 46000 yuan, a decline of 100%. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [21]. Fundamental Data - **Zinc**: In February, refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, up 13.94 percentage points [2]. - **Copper**: In February, electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points [4]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in a certain period was 32600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19% week - on - week [8]. - **Aluminum**: In February, alumina production was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.80%, up 16.40 percentage points [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, down 41.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81% year - on - year. In February, SMM refined tin production was 15100 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In February, lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate start - up rate was 48%, down 14.29% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% year - on - year. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% year - on - year [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06% week - on - week. The monthly polysilicon production was 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% year - on - year [21].