原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 汀苏 -7.4 -15.18% 41.08 48.43 壽求: (周慶) 日均出库量 1月9日 涨跌幅 地区 单位 1月16日 旅跌 中国 6.16 5.75 0.41 7% 万/立方米 2.79 山东 3.24 0.45 16% 江苏 2.28 2.35 -0.07 -3% 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 10 650 550 420 350 250 2 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 2023 =2024 == 2025 == 2026 -2023 == 2024 === 2025 -2022 - 山东辐射松3.9中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 1000 =2022 == 2024 == 2024 == 2025 = -2026 950 200 900 180 850 160 750 140 700 120 ero ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 贵金属期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292- | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月26日 | | | | 叶得品 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 而神 | 1月23日 | 1月22日 | 流跌 | 张庆娟 | 单位 | | AU2604合约 | 1115.64 | 1087.58 | 28.06 | 2.58% | 元/完 | | | | 23339 | 1626 | | | | AG2604合约 | 24965 | | | 6.97% | 元/千克 | | P12606合约 | 685.90 | 633.85 | 52.05 | 8.21% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 497.95 | 483.75 | 14.20 | 2.94% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月23日 | 1月22日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4983.10 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The mainstream regional liquid caustic soda market prices continued to decline this week. High开工 and poor sales led to inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - term prices are under pressure, and the short - term driving force remains weak [3]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. Although the market sentiment is good and the trend is relatively strong, with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream production demand is weakening, and inventory is rapidly accumulating. Also, the support from raw material calcium carbide is weak. It is expected that the upward space of PVC prices is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4700 - 5000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. There were frequent low - price situations in the week, impacting the market. The main downstream unloading was still difficult, and order transactions were light [3]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of major sample enterprises nationwide was 90.87%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week. There were sporadic short - stops of chlor - alkali plants, but some previously reduced - load plants resumed production [28]. - **Inventory**: On January 21, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 5.52% compared with January 14. In Shandong, the inventory decreased by 0.44% [28]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were some ongoing and planned maintenance situations of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined. Chongqing Tianyuan in the Southwest plans to have maintenance in March, but the specific time is undetermined [30]. - **Downstream Industry - Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new - to - be - put - into - production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production of alumina in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons. Recently, alumina futures prices have risen and then fallen, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the price will continue to operate weakly in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Export**: In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. Exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [59]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. As of now, the spot ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type five - grade in East China is 4520 - 4620 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - type is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased, with some enterprises having unplanned production cuts, but overall supply remained at a high level [4]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were no new maintenance enterprises this week, and the maintenance loss this week was 44,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5700 tons. It is expected that the maintenance loss will slightly decrease next week [74]. - **Downstream Industry - Real Estate**: The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and commercial housing sales area showing weak performance [75]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [82]. - **External Market**: Some external PVC prices have weakened [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资律咖业务费格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月26日 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 展新值 | 权前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 11.01 | F期现价差 | 6.70 | 82.5096 | 97.10% | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 93.00% | 5.61 | -2.47 | 85.70% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | 68.03 | 55.63 | 99.50% | 99.8096 | 95.00% | IM期现价差 | 45.86 | -0.07 | 99.5095 | | 次月-当月 | 5.20 | 7.80 | 99.10% | 73.80% | 零月-当月 | -16.40 | 22.60 | 90.90% | 46.50% | 远月-当 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 赖众栋（投资咨询资格编号：Z0023571） 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 行情导读：1 月 23 日，由于乙二醇供需预期改善，且资金大量流入化工板块，提振乙二醇反弹冲高， 乙二醇期货主力合约 EG2605 涨停，涨幅达 5.99%。 异动点评：供需预期改善，乙二醇反弹冲高 驱动分析一：海外乙二醇装置检修增加，进口预期收缩 1 月以来，海外多套乙二醇装置进行停车检修：台湾南亚两套共计 72 万吨/年的乙二醇装置因效 益原因于 1 月初检修，值得注意的是，2025 年内台湾南亚维持双线开车为主，平均月度对大陆市场的 供应量在 4 万吨附近；沙特一套 45 万吨/年的乙二醇装置近日已经停车，预计将持续至 2 月底 3 月初 重启，此外沙特另外几套分别为 45、38、70 万吨的装置目前也处于停车状态，预计 1 月中旬之后中东 地区装货量有所放缓，2 月份的装货量环比适度下降。随着海外装置检修增加，乙二醇进口预期收缩， 2 月进口量有望下降到 60 万吨附近，港口库存累库有限。 图：乙二醇月度进口量（万吨） 图：华东乙二醇港口库存（万吨） 广发期货有限公司 ...

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每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 ...