| | | 图表设置 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 下载图片 | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | | 2025-04-14 分享 | | | 作者： | | | 【现货维持震荡 期价远月走强】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪研究员 | | | 1、二育有进有出，整体影响有限； | | | | | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 2、钢联数据显示，4月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+3.25%；涌益咨询数据显示，4月其样本点计划出栏量环比+3.67%； | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 3、主力合约（LH2509）本周偏强运行，最高价14395元/吨，最低价13880元/吨，收盘于14345元/吨，持仓量约6.65万手。 | | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量来看，3-12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加，仔猪数据看，今年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，春节前 | 联系方式： | | | | 0371-69106756 | | | 需求增量明显，4、5月份需求虽有好转但幅度有限，6、7月需求偏稳定； ...

【期价宽幅震荡】 另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-10 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪研究员 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或继续回落； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 联系方式： 0371-69106756 邮箱地址： shixy@hrrdqh.com 图 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly in the first half of 2025, pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 7, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from April 3, with a decline of 0.07% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.59 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from April 3, with an increase of 0.55% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.45 yuan/kg [5] - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13785 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.04% [5] - The 03 contract was 13170 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.53% [5] - The 05 contract was 13330 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.45% [5] - The 07 contract remained unchanged at 13480 yuan/ton [5] - The 09 contract was 13900 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.29% [5] - The 11 contract was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.07% [5] - The main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton [5] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - striped pork average price, national corn granary purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, main contract basis in Henan, 05 - 07 contract spread, and 05 - 09 contract spread from 2022 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12] Market Dynamics and Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, and from the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption compared to the second half [2] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [2] - The short - selling logic includes that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase and the current breeding end is still increasing weight, which is actually negative for future hog prices; the long - buying logic includes that the recent hog prices have been relatively firm and the futures discount is large, making long - buying cost - effective [2] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog price may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, the current pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Other Information - The second - round fattening has both entries and exits, with limited impact on the market [4] - As of April 7, the total number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 0 [4] - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its position by 2321 lots today, with a position of about 45,900 lots, a maximum price of 13,500 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,260 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,330 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pig price will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of a new low in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Based on the piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise strongly under sufficient supply [1]. - There is still a marginal profit for weight gain within 150 kg currently. Once the spot price drops to around 14 yuan/kg, second - fattening may enter the market to support the price, so the spot price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [1]. - The 2505 contract has a certain degree of discount to the spot. Considering the current fundamentals, its price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: This week, both futures and spot prices fluctuated. The basis of the benchmark for the main contract was 1260 yuan/ton on April 3, 2025, compared with 1035 yuan/ton on March 27, 2025 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [4]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [7][10]. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the pig price continued to fluctuate, and the slaughter volume decreased compared with last week [13]. - **区域价差**: The price differences among the selected regions were in a relatively reasonable range [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight to some extent [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: Recently, the beef price has risen, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly positive [23]. - **出栏体重**: This week, the average slaughter weight continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.66 million at the end of February, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 decreased by 0.05% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.63% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.05% month - on - month, compared with a decrease of 0.04% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows was relatively stable. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly in February month - on - month [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In February, the number of healthy piglets born was basically stable month - on - month, with a decrease of 0.01% (the previous value was an increase of 0.8%). Corresponding to the hog slaughter volume, it will continue to increase in July this year and remain stable in August [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight upward trend, mainly because the warming weather increased farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets. The price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in February was 21.77 million, a month - on - month decrease of 43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Some slaughterhouses carried out the action of cutting and warehousing frozen products, which supported the pig price [36]. Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on the domestic pig price is relatively small [39].

生猪日报 | 2025-04-03 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、主力合约（LH2505）今日减仓1853手，持仓量约5万手，最高价13265元/ 吨，最低价13170元/吨，收盘于13230元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或继续回落； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 生猪研究员 期货从业资格：F0308632 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | April 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] - Contact: 0371 - 69106756, shixy@hrrdqh.com [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its positions by 1,969 lots today, with an open interest of approximately 50,000 lots. The highest price was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,170 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,240 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December. Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly. The first half of the year is a consumption off - season compared to the second half [3] - From historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [3] - Market bearish logic: The pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The farming side is still increasing the weight of pigs, which is actually negative for future pig prices. Bullish logic: The recent pig prices have been relatively firm, and the futures price is at a large discount, making long - positions cost - effective [3] Group 4: Strategy Suggestion - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - Core logic: Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, and there is no basis for a sharp increase in pig prices. The current pork consumption has entered an off - season, and demand has weak support for pig prices. Although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long term, due to high uncertainty and relatively firm recent spot prices, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 5: Other Information - The second - round fattening is gradually fading out. As of April 1, a total of 0 lots of pig warehouse receipts were registered [5] Group 6: Market Overview | Category | Indicator Name | April 1, 2025 | March 31, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National Pig Slaughter Price (yuan/kg) | National | 14.66 | 14.6 | 0.06 | 0.41% | | | Henan | 14.68 | 14.75 | - 0.07 | - 0.47% | | | Sichuan | 14.46 | 14.45 | 0.01 | 0.07% | | | 01 Contract | 13,845 | 13,910 | - 65 | - 0.47% | | | 03 Contract | 13,060 | 13,035 | 25 | 0.19% | | | 05 Contract | 13,240 | 13,245 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 07 Contract | 13,460 | 13,465 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 09 Contract | 13,930 | 13,945 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | | 11 Contract | 13,765 | 13,780 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | Main Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Henan | 1440 | 1505 | - 65 | - 4.32% | [6] Group 7: Key Data Tracking - Data includes national pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume,白条均价, corn national grain depot purchase average price, etc., from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][10][11] - Data sources: Yongyi Consulting, Wind, Rongda Futures [6][7][13]

生猪日报 | 2025-04-01 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、主力合约（LH2505）今日减仓9669手，持仓量约5万手，最高价13310元/ 吨，最低价13220元/吨，收盘于13245元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或继续回落； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪研究员 期货从业资格： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].

生猪日报 | 2025-03-28 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 3、主力合约（LH2505）今日减仓3138手，持仓量约7万手，最高价13550元/ 吨，最低价13470元/吨，收盘于13515元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或继续回落； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 生猪研究员 期货从业资格： ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-03-27 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、主力合约（LH2505）今日增仓1708手，持仓量约7.02万手，最高价13550元/ 吨，最低价13420元/吨，收盘于13535元/吨。 【基本面分析】 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或继续回落； 作者： 史香迎 生猪研究员 期货从业 ...