Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton is likely to continue its oscillatory trend in the short term. The core logics are that the current Sino-US trade relations have eased, presenting a positive macro environment; there is a strong expectation of a bountiful cotton supply this year, and the subsequent hedging pressure will be significant as the cost gradually stabilizes; the downstream market shows a lukewarm performance, with enterprises' finished product inventories in a healthy state and a rigid demand for cotton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On the 20th local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an employment report. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The non-farm employment data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low, but currently, most Fed officials support a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a "25-basis-point rate cut" in December has risen to over 70% [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Commercial Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 2.9346 million tons, an increase of 593,800 tons; the total inventory in the inland was 377,100 tons, an increase of 278,800 tons; the bonded warehouse cotton inventory was 328,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons. The current commercial cotton inventory is at the highest level in the same period in history, and it is expected to remain at this high level in the next few months [2]. Industrial Inventory - As of November 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons, and an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0875 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,840 tons, and an increase of 20,800 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.35 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 days and an increase of 0.23 days from the end of last month. The grey cloth inventory was 31.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.71 days and a decrease of 0.85 days from the end of last month. Currently, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is in a healthy state, and the stable operating rate creates a rigid demand for cotton consumption [2]. 3. One - Week Data Overview - As of November 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot price index was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07%. The main contract price of ICE cotton futures was 61.85 cents/pound, down 0.65 cents/pound from last week, with a decline of 1.04%. The NYMEX crude oil price was 57.98 dollars/barrel, down 1.97 dollars/barrel from last week, with a decline of 3.29%. The Shanghai gold main contract was 926.94 yuan/gram, down 26.26 yuan/gram from last week, with a decline of 2.75% [4][6]. 4. Domestic Market Basic Situation Raw Material Price Index - On November 21, the price center of raw materials showed mixed trends compared with last week. The short - fiber main contract closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 1.22%. The cotton main contract closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot 3128B market price was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07% [10]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of domestic yarns moved slightly higher compared with last week. The price of OEC10S airflow - spun yarn remained unchanged at 14,670 yuan/ton. The price of C32S carded yarn was 20,440 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.59% [12]. Imported Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of foreign yarns denominated in US dollars moved slightly lower compared with last week, and the price center of foreign yarns denominated in RMB declined. For example, the FCYIndexJC32S arrival price in US dollars was 2.64 dollars/kg, down 0.01 dollars/kg from last week, with a decline of 0.38%. The FCYIndexJC32S port pick - up price in RMB was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.26% [15][19]. Cotton Price Spread - On November 21, the spread between domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was 953 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was - 383 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract under tariff was 514 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract's converted disk price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [23][25]. Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of November 21, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3,456, a decrease of 1,579 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 2,157 from last week, and the total number of effective forecasts was 1,221, an increase of 578 from last week [28]. Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Spread - As of November 21, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and CCI3128B spot price index was - 1,336 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [30]. Cotton Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. As of October 31, the monthly cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last month, with a decline of 10%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with a decline of 18.18% [33][35]. Cotton Inspection Volume - As of November 20, the Xinjiang cotton inspection volume was 3.3915 million tons, the inland cotton inspection volume was 14,900 tons, and the national cotton inspection volume was 3.4064 million tons [38]. Cotton Textile Industry PMI - As of the end of October, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 52.66%, up 8.37 percentage points from last month, and it returned above the boom - bust line for the first time in seven months since March this year [40]. 5. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The US federal government shutdown ended, which is expected to have a negative impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter. The market is currently focused on the Fed's possible interest rate cut in December, and the decision will depend on factors such as inflation and the employment market [41]. Cotton Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from last month, with an increase rate of 186.84%, higher than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises showed a stable - to - increasing trend [41]. Market Price and Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the CRB commodity price index declined slightly, and the ICE cotton futures main contract price fell. The latest global cotton supply - demand report was bearish. In the short term, cotton prices may be under pressure and show a weak trend [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of cottonseed has slightly increased, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has continued to be strong. In the short - term, the cotton price may fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. - As Zhengzhou cotton rebounds, the price of pure cotton yarn has also slightly followed up, but the downstream demand restricts the follow - up range. The short - term price of cotton yarn is likely to remain stable. The upper limit of Zhengzhou cotton has hedging pressure, and the lower limit has cost support, so it is likely to fluctuate in the short term [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of October 24, the CRB commodity price index closed at 302.98 points, up 9.63 points from October 17. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract closed at 13,540 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from October 17, with an increase of 4,442 lots in positions to 591,000 lots. Spot prices of some cotton - related products also changed slightly [2][10][11]. - **Imported Cotton Quotations**: The CNF quotations of imported cotton from the US and Brazil at the main ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and that of Brazil M decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On October 24, the prices of raw materials showed mixed changes compared with October 17. The price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the prices of CCI3128 and Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased [14][15]. - **Cotton Yarn Price Trends**: On October 24, the prices of domestic and imported cotton yarns remained stable compared with October 17. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased, and the price difference between domestic cotton spot and imported cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also decreased [18][21][24]. - **Comparison of Domestic and International Cotton Prices**: On October 24, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,803 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty decreased compared with October 17. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty increased [27]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 17 [33]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton's Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On October 24, the difference between Zhengzhou cotton's futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 17 [35]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US core CPI growth rate slowed down in September, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates. China's GDP growth rate in the third quarter was the slowest this year, but incremental policies were expected to be introduced later [36]. - **Supply - side**: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. The cotton inspection volume was about 70,000 tons per day. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 67.9% as of October 20, 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year [37]. - **Downstream Market**: As of October 15, the textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased, while the yarn and fabric inventories increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the spinning mills mainly adopted the strategies of selling at market prices and producing on demand [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract turned strong, with the MACD green column turning red and the KDJ and DIFF - DEA indicators about to form golden crosses [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 54% compared with the previous week, and the shipment increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton increased compared with the previous week but decreased compared with the average of the recent four weeks [47]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On October 24, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. The technical indicators turned strong, with the KDJ indicator about to form a golden cross [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - Upstream cotton enterprises can hedge risks by calculating the cost of lint cotton based on the purchase price of cottonseed and hedging on the futures market or buying put options [52]. - Downstream spinning mills can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [52].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded in the second half of this week. Currently, Xinjiang cotton is in the stage of concentrated supply. The cotton harvesting in northern Xinjiang is nearing completion, and a large number of cotton pickers are moving from north to south to southern Xinjiang for harvesting. The purchase price of seed cotton is relatively stable. The short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate. Whether the cooling in the south will boost autumn and winter consumption and drive replenishment orders needs further observation. Macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [3][37]. - The cost of new - season lint cotton in northern Xinjiang is gradually solidified, with the mainstream theoretical cost ranging from 13,800 to 14,400 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis. There is certain hedging pressure above the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton, and there is cost support below, so it is likely to remain volatile in the short term [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1.1 One - Week Data Overview - As of October 17, the CRB commodity price index closed at 293.35 points, up 0.59 points from October 10. The Wenhua Commodity Index on October 17 was 159.47, down 2.43 points or 1.5% from October 10. The ICE cotton futures main contract for December on October 17 was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton as of the week ending October 17 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from October 10, and the open interest increased by 31,000 lots to 586,000 lots [2][10][36]. - The prices of domestic and international cotton and related commodities showed different trends. For example, the price of gold increased, the price of crude oil decreased, and the prices of agricultural products in the plate increased [10]. - The prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased. For the US E/MOTM, the price decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and for Brazil M, it decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 1.2 Domestic Market Conditions - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On October 17, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to October 10. The price of viscose decreased by 76 yuan, while the prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 remained unchanged, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased by 10 yuan [14][15]. - **Yarn Price Trends**: On October 17, the prices of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price of domestic yarns such as OE10S, C32S, and JC40S decreased, and the prices of imported yarns in RMB terms also decreased slightly. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased [18][20][23]. - **Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On October 17, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,757 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale tariff decreased compared to October 10. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale tariff increased [26]. 2. Second Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 2.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 10 [30]. 2.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot - On October 17, the price difference between Zhengzhou cotton futures and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 10 [33]. 2.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The US government shutdown has lasted for some time, and the US economy is shifting from a contractionary monetary policy to a loose one. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of 98%. In China, the consumer market in September was generally stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month - on - month and falling 0.3% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.8%. As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, at a historical low [35]. - **Downstream Market**: This week, the price of pure - cotton yarn was mainly stable. The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was weaker than last week, and the overall new orders were insufficient. The profit of yarn mills improved [35]. - **Technical Aspect**: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract 01 turned stronger. The MACD green column turned red, the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator was also about to form a golden cross [40]. 3. Third Part: International Market Analysis 3.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - season upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a decrease of 54% from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, an increase of 14% from the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton also increased [43]. - As of September 23, the CFTC fund net long position was - 68,812, a decrease of 3,305 from the previous week [46]. 3.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On October 17, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. Technically, the KDJ indicator was about to form a golden cross and diverge upwards, and the technical indicators turned stronger [48]. 4. Fourth Part: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, they can hedge on the futures market based on the cost of lint cotton calculated from the purchase price of seed cotton, or consider buying put options to hedge risks. - For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs will be abundant by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent [4]. - If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On October 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 90 lots [2]. - There is currently no upward driving force for short - term spot prices, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals [2]. - On October 14, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its position by 8,606 lots, with a position of approximately 48,700 lots. The highest price was 11,470 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. According to piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase oscillatingly. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; the demand from October to November is not strong enough to support pig prices. The long - side logic includes: the weight reduction by farmers in the early stage is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On October 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 10.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% compared to the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.44%. The slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.47 yuan/kg [6]. - In terms of futures prices, all contracts showed an upward trend on October 14, with the 11 - contract increasing by 2.92% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton or 326.09% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents historical data trends of multiple indicators such as the national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price, main contract basis in Henan, 11 - 01 contract price difference, and 01 - 03 contract price difference [7][9][10][12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of live pigs is expected to undergo a weak and oscillatory adjustment. From the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price to some extent. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On October 13, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 90 lots. The short - term spot price has no upward driving force, and attention should be paid to when the spot price shows an oversold signal. On the same day, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its positions by 3,135 lots, with a position of about 57,300 lots, a maximum price of 11,430 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 11,120 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,125 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on October 13 was 10.84 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% from October 10. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 11.24 yuan/kg and 10.47 yuan/kg respectively, with a change of +0.01 yuan/kg (+0.09%) in Henan and - 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.57%) in Sichuan. Futures prices of various contracts generally declined, and the basis of the main contract in Henan increased significantly by 227.78% [5]. II. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase overall. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still high, and the demand support for pig prices is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [2]. III. Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only, not an investment advice) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to adjust weakly and fluctuate. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and it is difficult for pig prices to continue to rise significantly. If the negative cycle of "price decline → increased enthusiasm for slaughter → price decline" occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One may consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time (for reference only, not investment advice) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the decline in spot prices, futures prices have dropped this week [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts have adjusted weakly [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: With weak spot prices, the inter - monthly spread shows a reverse spread trend, especially the 11 - 01 contract [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume has increased steadily, while pig prices have declined [14]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **Fat - to - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - to - standard price difference has adjusted strongly and fluctuated. If it continues to strengthen, it may enhance the willingness of small - scale farmers to increase the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: As pig prices decline, terminal consumption is expected to increase [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - to - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - to - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Farming Profits**: All pig farming has fallen into losses [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight has decreased slightly this week, and the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased [26]. Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of August, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Different data sources show different trends in the inventory of reproductive sows [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows has been running weakly. In September, the slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction has increased [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall increase in the volume of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets has been running weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows has been running steadily but weakly [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profits**: The slaughter volume has continued to increase month - on - month. In August, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 33.5 million, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. Regarding frozen products, attention should be paid to whether there will be inventory actions after the decline in pig prices [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment. By December, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly, and with sufficient supply, there is limited potential for a significant rise in hog prices. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and provide some support for hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On October 9, there were 0 registered hog warehouse receipts. The short - term spot market lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals. On the same day, the LH2511 hog futures contract reduced its position by 2,769 lots, with an open interest of approximately 58,300 lots. The highest price was 11,905 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,535 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,595 yuan/ton [2]. - From October 9 to September 30, the national average hog slaughter price dropped from 11.61 yuan/kg to 11.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.29%. In Henan, it dropped from 11.71 yuan/kg to 11.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.42%. In Sichuan, it dropped from 11.27 yuan/kg to 11.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of various futures contracts also declined, with the 11 - contract dropping by 6.15%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 200% [5]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [2]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not periods of large consumption increases, so demand has limited support for hog prices. The long - side logic includes: farmers have started to reduce weight, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The report suggests a weak and volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if it does, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term due to factors such as this year's cotton bumper harvest, low price expectations of farmers for seed cotton, weak downstream demand, and the influence of the macro - environment [2][3]. Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Weekly Data Overview**: As of October 07, the CRB commodity price index closed at 301.07 points, down 3.96 points from September 26. On September 30, the Wenhua Commodity Index was 162.02, down 1.78 points or 1.09% from September 26. The ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound on September 30, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. The Zhengzhou cotton main 01 contract closed at 13,215 yuan/ton on September 30, down 190 yuan/ton from September 26, with positions increasing by 635 lots to 535,000 lots [2][10][33]. - **Imported Cotton CNF Quotes**: From September 26 to September 30, the prices of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M imported cotton increased slightly, with the 1% customs - cleared and sliding - scale tax prices also rising [9]. Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On September 30, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 26. The prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 increased slightly, while the prices of viscose remained unchanged, and the prices of Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [15]. - **Cotton Yarn Price Trends**: On September 30, the domestic yarn prices decreased compared to September 26, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns increased slightly due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed [18][20][23]. - **Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index**: On September 30, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the sliding - scale tax - included foreign cotton price was 1,059 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale tax) widened [26]. Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of September 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 3,397 lots (146,000 tons), with 12 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 146,000 tons, down from 182,000 tons on September 26 [29]. - **Analysis of the Basis of Zhengzhou Cotton**: On September 30, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,563 yuan/ton, wider than on September 26 [30]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices**: The macro - environment shows that major economies are in an interest - rate cut cycle. During the National Day, the seed cotton purchase price stabilized. The current pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume, and the spinning mills' profit situation has improved slightly. The domestic cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the short to medium term. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract have weakened [31][32][34]. Part IV: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 annual net signing of upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and shipments increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly week - on - week, and shipments of Pima cotton increased significantly compared to the previous week [40]. - **Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures**: On September 30, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a dead cross and diverged downward, and the technical indicators weakened [44]. Part V: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, calculate the lint cost based on the seed cotton purchase price and hedge on the futures market or consider buying put options to hedge risks [46]. - For downstream spinning mills, when the raw material price drops, consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the lint purchase cost [46].

Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. Considering the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may still have a slight increase by December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Directory Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices adjusted weakly and fluctuated. On September 26, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted weakly and fluctuated [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: The inter - monthly spreads adjusted fluctuately, and the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend due to the weak spot market [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price adjusted weakly and fluctuated [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The pig price in Sichuan was relatively weak [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted fluctuately. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may increase the weight - gain willingness of scattered farmers [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight increased this week [26]. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads. Different data sources showed different trends in August, with some showing a slight increase and some a decrease [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows ran weakly. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the enthusiasm for capacity reduction [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Enthusiasm for Sow and Piglet Replenishment**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets ran weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads. The market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may support pig prices to some extent. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. An 11 - 01 contract reverse spread can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 24, there were 368 registered live pig warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the live pig slaughter weight. The main live pig contract (LH2511) reduced its position by 2,695 lots today, with a position of approximately 90,800 lots. The highest price today was 12,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,645 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,730 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The short - term logic in the market includes concerns about increasing slaughter weight, high subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in September and October. The long - term logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced the weight of pigs, consumption is expected to improve after the weather cools, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an 11 - 01 contract reverse spread can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 24, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.65 yuan/kg, a 0.08% increase from the previous day. The price in Henan was 12.78 yuan/kg, a 0.78% decrease from the previous day. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.27 yuan/kg. Among futures contracts, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 1.02%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 76.74% to 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides various data trends, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].