Report Overview - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to some extent [4] - If farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On August 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2] - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 3,370 lots today, with a position of about 75,000 lots. The highest price was 13,750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,590 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of spot prices indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season of live pigs [3] 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will fluctuate and adjust [4] - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average pig slaughter price on August 28 was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.73 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37%) and 13.35 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg or - 0.82%) respectively [6] - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or - 0.99% [6] - The main basis in Henan was 140 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton or 315.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between different contracts, etc. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On August 27, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 13.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan or 0.88%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan or 0.81% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.85%; the 03 contract was 13235 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.38%; the 05 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.29%; the 07 contract was 14165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 09 contract was 13445 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan or 1.61%; the 11 contract was 13745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan or 78.33% from the previous day [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report shows data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On August 27, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 430 lots [2]. - The short - term decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig contract (LH2511) added 1323 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 71,600 lots. The highest price was 13865 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13700 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13745 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report's view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weights and support pig prices to some extent. If farmers continue to reduce pig weights or keep them stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is somewhat favorable for the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On August 26, there were 430 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs. The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 241 lots today, with a position of about 70,300 lots. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,860 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter will generally increase oscillatively in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatively. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced weights, which is beneficial for the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [2] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weights and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weights or keep the weights stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is beneficial for the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Market Overview - On August 26, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.56 yuan/kg and 13.57 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.15 yuan/kg (1.09%) and 0.05 yuan/kg (0.37%). Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts all declined, with decreases ranging from 5 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton and decline rates from 0.04% to 0.94%. The main basis in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 50% from the previous day [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 25, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short - term, the room for further decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its position by 3231 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price today was 14,015 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,860 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,910 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure; expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume; limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. Bullish logic: farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial for the future; strong resilience of spot prices indicates that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic includes the expected increase in pig slaughter volume until December, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, and the potential impact of farmers' weight - reduction or weight - stability on pig prices and the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on August 25 was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.36% from August 22. In Henan, it was 13.71 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15%; in Sichuan, it was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%; the 03 contract was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%; the 05 contract was 13,770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.22%; the 07 contract was 14,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 09 contract was 13,795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the 11 contract was 13,910 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was - 200 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton or 185.71% from August 22 [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term performance of cotton may be stable with a slight upward trend, but as prices rise, it may face pre - hedging pressure from new cotton. The overall market atmosphere is warm due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and potential domestic stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which supports commodity prices [3][36]. 3. Summary by Section First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes**: From August 15th to August 24th, the CRB commodity price index rose by 4.46 points to 300 points; ICE cotton futures' December contract rose 0.52 cents/lb to 68 cents/lb, a 0.77% increase. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures (01) closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7,288 lots in positions to 485,000 lots. Domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, with CCI3128 rising from 15,216 yuan/ton to 15,243 yuan/ton [2][10][11]. - **Imported Cotton Quotes**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton at major ports increased, with the quotes of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M rising by 0.7 cents/lb [9]. Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 24th, compared with August 15th, the price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose rose by 214 yuan/ton, CCI3128 rose by 82 yuan/ton, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 90 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: Domestic yarn prices rose, while the prices of imported cotton yarn in RMB and foreign yarn prices declined. The domestic - foreign yarn price spread narrowed [18][20][21]. - **Cotton Price Comparison**: On August 24th, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,243 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 948 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [25]. Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 24th, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 7,198 lots (336,000 tons), and the effective forecasts were 63 lots. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 312,000 tons, down from 347,000 tons on August 15th [30]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On August 24th, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,213 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with August 15th [32]. - **Price Analysis**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and the domestic market may introduce favorable policies in the fourth quarter. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historically low level, and the downstream market is in a benign operation. Technically, the indicators of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton weakened [33][34][39]. Fourth Part: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: From August 8th - 14th, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 56% compared with the previous week, and the shipment decreased by 32%. There was no signing of next - year's upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [43]. - **ICE Cotton Futures**: On August 24th, the main December contract of ICE cotton futures was 68 cents/lb, up 0.52 cents/lb from August 15th, with a 0.77% increase. Technically, the indicators strengthened [47]. Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when raw material prices fall, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 2511 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: There are no major fundamental contradictions, and the live pig contract fluctuates and adjusts. On August 22, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was -70 yuan/ton, compared to -135 yuan/ton on August 15 [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads fluctuate and adjust [7][10]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated and adjusted [13]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [15]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuates strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will enhance the market's willingness to increase the weight of pigs [17]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - White Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakens, and the cost - performance of frozen products is inferior to that of fresh products [21]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [23]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, and subsequent weight changes should be monitored [25]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [27]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows was weak. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In July, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight decline, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the inventory reduction stage for frozen products, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and the impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

生猪日报 | 2025-08-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月21日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓741手，持仓约6.99万手，今日最高价 13815元/吨，最低价13725元/吨，收盘于13765元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract already has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 20, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 2,684 lots today, with a position of about 70,600 lots. The highest price today was 13,900 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,775 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase oscillatingly; on the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic is that the current weight reduction is beneficial to the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the November contract [4]. Market Overview - On August 20, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.51% compared with the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 13.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.22%; in Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74% [6]. - For futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 0.63%, the 03 contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton or 0.3%, etc. The basis of the main contract in Henan increased by 155 yuan/ton or 119.23% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report also presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, etc. over the years, as well as the closing prices of futures contracts in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts [7][9][10][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the pig price will have an oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce pig weight and providing some support for pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may have an oscillatory adjustment, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 6,351 lots today, with a position of about 71,200 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,820 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side thinks, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract considering its slight premium over the spot price [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 18, the national live pig slaughter price was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from August 15. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with August 15, with the decline ranging from 0.38% to 1.34% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 5 yuan or 3.7% compared with August 15 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig supply is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 13, the registered pig warehouse receipts were 430 lots [2]. - In the short - term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 5,348 lots today, with a position of approximately 66,200 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. Based on piglet data, the overall pig slaughter volume will increase oscillatory in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future market, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak pig consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers), and abundant supply makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 13, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.81 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan or 0.58%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.47 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan or 1.2% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 14,295 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.9%; the 03 contract was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 05 contract was 13,995 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.25%; the 07 contract was 14,380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.24%; the 09 contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.11%; the 11 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 1.3% [6].