Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )

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生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250710
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-10 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing a significant price drop. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 9, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,328 lots today, with a holding of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,265 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From a historical perspective and the current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: Slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - Bullish: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual approach of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Viewpoint: Oscillatory adjustment [4]. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4]. - The recent performance of the live pig spot market shows a positive relationship between "weight reduction - stable pig prices", indicating that the demand side also provides some support for pig prices. The spread between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4]. - The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Quotes Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on July 9 was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.53%) from the previous day; in Sichuan, it was 14.44 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg (0.21%) from the previous day [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined on July 9 compared to the previous day, with the decline ranging from -0.07% to -0.62% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 805 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-8%) from the previous day [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250709
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-09 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, suggesting investors to wait and see for the time being [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 8, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price, and in the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the live pig market are not significant. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 350 lots today, with a position of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,230 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,275 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of breeding sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamental perspectives, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited in the second and third quarters. Bulls believe that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is resilient, and although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season is approaching [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term rise and fall of pig prices are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Data - On July 8, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.13% compared to the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.15 yuan/kg and 14.41 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan increasing by 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.53% and Sichuan remaining unchanged [6]. - Among the futures contracts, the 09 contract increased by 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%, while other contracts such as 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 contracts showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton or 6.06% to 875 yuan/ton [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡偏弱-20250708
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-08 05:51
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience an oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing obvious price drops. It is not recommended to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - After the recovery of the slaughter volume, the spot price has recently oscillated downward, and the LH2509 contract has also adjusted weakly [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 3,761 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,245 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices indicating a less loose supply - demand situation than the short - side believes, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market shows demand support, preventing obvious price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to low slaughter volume. If the slaughter returns to normal, the price increase is likely unsustainable, so chasing long is not recommended [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on July 7 was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from July 4 [6]. - The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% to 15.07 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.41 yuan/kg [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, and 07 contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.11% to 1.59%, while the 09 and 11 contracts decreased by 0.42% and 0.26% respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 190 yuan/ton or 18.72% to 825 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 and 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250704
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-04 06:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing significant price drops. It is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 3, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 450 lots [2]. - The spot price and the LH2509 contract both underwent oscillatory adjustment, awaiting new driving factors [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,273 lots, with a remaining position of approximately 79,700 lots. The highest price was 14,420 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,250 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,370 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall supply of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase in an oscillatory manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may experience oscillatory adjustment [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent supply, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent supply, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The recommended strategy is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. The current "weight reduction - stable price" relationship in the spot market indicates that demand provides some support, preventing significant price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at the same level as the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to reduced supply from the breeding sector. If the supply returns to normal, the price increase is unlikely to be sustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 3, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.46 yuan/kg, a 1.05% increase from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price in Henan was 15.41 yuan/kg, a 0.26% decrease, and the price in Sichuan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.22% increase [6]. - The futures prices of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the 09 contract closed at 14,370 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a 6.31% decrease [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts for futures contracts' closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].
生猪日报:期价上涨-20250703
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-03 01:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250627
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-27 02:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of volatile adjustment, and suggests temporarily observing the LH2509 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On June 26, there were 750 registered live pig warehouse receipts [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery, while the far - month contracts fluctuate due to the current weight reduction being beneficial to the future market and the expected increase in future market supply [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 733 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,800 lots, a maximum price of 14,080 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,990 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,040 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although there will be an increase in future slaughter volume, it is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will experience volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current live pig spot market shows a positive triangular relationship of "increasing slaughter volume - decreasing weight - stable pig prices", indicating certain support from the demand side. The LH2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and the current weight reduction in the breeding sector is beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, it is recommended to temporarily observe the LH2509 contract [4] Market Overview - On June 26, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.56 yuan/kg, a 0.55% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 07 and 09 contracts increased, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, and 11 contracts decreased [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 15% to 920 yuan/ton [6] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250626
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-26 02:28
另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-26 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月25日,生猪注册仓单750手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现下降重利好后市和后市出 栏仍有增量影响震荡运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日减仓369手,持仓约8.1万手,最高价14015元/吨, 最低价13930元/吨,收盘于14000元/吨。 1、观点:震荡调整; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加(不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏),供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨; 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢,供应压力尚未完全释放;②后续 出栏量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限; 多头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格韧性强,说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松;③ ...
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250625
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-25 02:31
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the price of the 2509 contract of live hogs is in a relatively reasonable range and recommends temporary observation, with an overall view of price oscillation adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 24, the national average price of live hog slaughter was 14.46 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day; the price in Henan was 14.74 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 07 contract rose 100 yuan to 13,550 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase; the 09 contract fell 40 yuan to 13,940 yuan/ton, a -0.29% decrease [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase is limited; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - The fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish factors include slow weight - reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish factors are the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the price will oscillate and adjust. The core logic is that with the expected increase in slaughter volume by December, the price is difficult to rise significantly; the current "slaughter volume increase - weight decrease - price stability" relationship in the spot market and the stable rebound of the price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs support the price, making it difficult to fall significantly; considering the current bullish and bearish factors, the 2509 contract price is in a reasonable range, so it is recommended to observe [4].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250624
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-24 02:13
生猪日报 | 2025-06-24 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡调整; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加(不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏),供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨; 1、6月23日,生猪注册仓单750手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现下降重利好后市影响震荡 偏强运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日增仓945手,持仓约7.71万手,最高价14010元/ 吨,最低价13925元/吨,收盘于13980元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢,供应压力尚未完全释放;②后续 出栏量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限; 多头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格韧性强,说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松; ...
美联储连续第四次维持利率不变,美棉出口数据好转郑棉主力维持震荡格局,关注天气变化及政策动
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-23 01:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - **Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - **Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences**: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis**: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]