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融达期货生猪日报-20250822
生猪日报 | 2025-08-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月21日,生猪注册仓单430手; 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限,关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度; 3、生猪主力合约(LH2511)今日减仓741手,持仓约6.99万手,今日最高价 13815元/吨,最低价13725元/吨,收盘于13765元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,下半年消费比 上半年好; 2、 从历史情况来看,肥标差或震荡走强; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度,供应压力尚未完全释 放;②后续出栏量有望持续增加;③三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支 撑有限;多头:①现下降重利好后市;②现货价格韧性强,说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松;③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限,且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡调整; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加(不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏),供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨; 2)150 ...
融达期货生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250821
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract already has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 20, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 2,684 lots today, with a position of about 70,600 lots. The highest price today was 13,900 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,775 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase oscillatingly; on the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic is that the current weight reduction is beneficial to the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the November contract [4]. Market Overview - On August 20, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.51% compared with the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 13.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.22%; in Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74% [6]. - For futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 0.63%, the 03 contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton or 0.3%, etc. The basis of the main contract in Henan increased by 155 yuan/ton or 119.23% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report also presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, etc. over the years, as well as the closing prices of futures contracts in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts [7][9][10][14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250819
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the pig price will have an oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce pig weight and providing some support for pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may have an oscillatory adjustment, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 6,351 lots today, with a position of about 71,200 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,820 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side thinks, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract considering its slight premium over the spot price [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 18, the national live pig slaughter price was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from August 15. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with August 15, with the decline ranging from 0.38% to 1.34% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 5 yuan or 3.7% compared with August 15 [6].
融达期货生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250815
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig supply is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 13, the registered pig warehouse receipts were 430 lots [2]. - In the short - term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 5,348 lots today, with a position of approximately 66,200 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. Based on piglet data, the overall pig slaughter volume will increase oscillatory in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future market, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak pig consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers), and abundant supply makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weight, providing some support for pig prices. If farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. Considering the slight premium of the November contract over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 13, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.81 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan or 0.58%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.47 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan or 1.2% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 14,295 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.9%; the 03 contract was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 05 contract was 13,995 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.25%; the 07 contract was 14,380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.24%; the 09 contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.11%; the 11 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 1.3% [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250813
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is stabilizing and rebounding, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 12, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 410 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 1,419 lots today, with a position of approximately 60,900 lots. The highest price today was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,230 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: ① The weight reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, and the supply pressure has not been fully released; ② The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; ③ It is not yet the peak consumption season in the third quarter, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. - Bullish: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; ② The spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; ③ Although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually enter the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - View: Oscillatory adjustment. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector). With abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded. Seasonally, this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to a certain extent. - If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable in the future, the pig price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is beneficial to the November contract to a certain extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Live Pig Slaughter Price**: The national average price on August 12 was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.22%) from the previous day. The price in Henan was 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg (0.29%); the price in Sichuan was 13.31 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - **Futures Price**: The prices of most futures contracts showed an upward trend, with the 11 - contract rising by 90 yuan/ton (0.64%) to 14,230 yuan/ton. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (- 11.11%) from the previous day [6].
生猪周报:出栏体重持续下降后市预期向好-20250811
| | | 另存为PDF | | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪周报 | | 2025-08-11 | | | 分享 | | | | 作者: | | | 【出栏体重持续下降 后市预期向好】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、8月8日,生猪注册仓单380手; | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业7月计划出栏完成率97.11%,8月计划+6.6%;整体看8月日均出栏压力明显大于7月; | 期货从业资格:F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪合约(LH2511)受现下降重利好后市影响震荡上行,收盘于14180元/吨,持仓量约6.02万手。 | 交易咨询资格:Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,下半年生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数据看,2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加; | 邮箱地址: | | | 需求端来看,下半年消费比上半年好; | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡走强; | | | | | 联系方式: | | | 3、市场多空逻辑 ...
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250808
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250806
生猪日报 | 2025-08-06 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月5日,生猪注册仓单300手; 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限,关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日减仓2540手,持仓约3.57万手,今日最高价13980 元/吨,最低价13825元/吨,收盘于13885元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,下半年消费比 上半年好; 2、 从历史情况来看,肥标差或震荡走强; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度,供应压力尚未完全释 放;②后续出栏量有望持续增加;③三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支 撑有限;多头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格韧 性强,说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松;③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限,且 三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡调整; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加(不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏),供应充裕下猪价难有明显 ...
融达期货生猪日报:期价震荡偏弱-20250805
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 4, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,721 lots today, with a position of approximately 40,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,940 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong toughness of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual arrival of the hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support hog prices. If the breeding side continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, hog prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended that previous short positions in the 09 contract can take profits and leave the market and wait and see temporarily [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 4, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan or 0.71% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.08 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.14% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.15% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts are provided [14].
宏观氛围转弱,商品市场全线下跌郑棉资金减仓离场,短期价格或震荡偏弱
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].