1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the pig prices will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen, providing some support to pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 28, the registered pig futures warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term decline of spot prices is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 881 lots today, with a position of about 61,400 lots. The highest price was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 28, compared with July 25, the futures prices of all contracts decreased. The 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton (- 0.82%), the 03 contract decreased by 185 yuan/ton (- 1.34%), the 05 contract decreased by 155 yuan/ton (- 1.09%), the 07 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), the 09 contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton (- 1.81%), and the 11 contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market is expected to experience volatile adjustments. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support pig prices by reducing the willingness of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. Considering the current long - short factors, it is suggested to lightly short the LH2509 contract or configure reverse spreads, but risk control should be emphasized due to the positive macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs showed a volatile and upward trend this week [3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts showed a strong upward trend [6]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The expectations for far - month contracts have increased. The reverse spread trends of the 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contracts are obvious [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices continued to decline [15]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [17]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference is generally in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even encourage weight gain [19]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [23]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach the level of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase in June [29]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows showed a weak trend this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [31]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In June, the number of newborn healthy piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of pigs for slaughter in December will stop increasing and start to decline [33]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the prices of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market is gradually entering the destocking phase for frozen products, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral - negative [37]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, remaining basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 21, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Affected by macro - sentiment, the main contract (LH2509) increased its positions and rose, with a position of about 64,300 lots. The highest price on the day was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that subsequent slaughter increase is limited while the fourth quarter is gradually entering the peak consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 21, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from July 18. In Henan, it was 14.53 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35%. In Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan or 0.29%. Among futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally increased, with the 01 contract up 2.1%, the 03 contract up 1.81%, the 05 contract up 1.7%, the 09 contract up 1.63%, and the 11 contract up 1.72%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 80 yuan or 32.65% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data tracking charts such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to abundant supply and limited price fluctuations in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 17, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,190 lots today, with a holding of about 64,800 lots The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,060 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025 The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory The market has both bearish and bullish logics [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly The price difference between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, supporting pig prices The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On July 17, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04% compared to the previous day Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease The main basis in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton or 37.04% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report tracks multiple data including national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, live pig main contract basis in Henan, 09 - 11 contract price difference, and 11 - 01 contract price difference [7][9][10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices to some extent. Given that the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 16, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 444 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,125 lots in positions today, with approximately 69,000 lots held. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,010 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly due to sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices. Since the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - National hog slaughter price on July 16 was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg or 0.76% from the previous day. - Futures prices of various contracts declined on July 16 compared to the previous day, with the 09 contract down 240 yuan/ton or 1.68%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 180 yuan/ton or 50% to 540 yuan/ton [6].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the pig futures market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - The 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Content Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. In the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the pig market are not significant, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,852 lots today, with a position of approximately 69,400 lots. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,185 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,285 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season for live pigs in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue strengthening, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices; the 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.54% compared to July 11. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 07 contracts increased, while the prices of the 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased. The main contract (LH2509) closed at 14,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to July 11 [6] - The main basis in Henan decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 19.78% compared to July 11 [6] Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts and the 11 - 01 contracts [14]