Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )

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生猪周报:多空交织,盘面震荡调整-20250721
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-21 03:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250718
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-18 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to abundant supply and limited price fluctuations in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 17, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,190 lots today, with a holding of about 64,800 lots The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,060 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025 The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory The market has both bearish and bullish logics [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly The price difference between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, supporting pig prices The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On July 17, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04% compared to the previous day Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease The main basis in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton or 37.04% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report tracks multiple data including national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, live pig main contract basis in Henan, 09 - 11 contract price difference, and 11 - 01 contract price difference [7][9][10]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250717
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-17 02:35
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices to some extent. Given that the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 16, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 444 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,125 lots in positions today, with approximately 69,000 lots held. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,010 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly due to sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices. Since the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - National hog slaughter price on July 16 was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg or 0.76% from the previous day. - Futures prices of various contracts declined on July 16 compared to the previous day, with the 09 contract down 240 yuan/ton or 1.68%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 180 yuan/ton or 50% to 540 yuan/ton [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250715
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-15 02:01
Report Overview - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the pig futures market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - The 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Content Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. In the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the pig market are not significant, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,852 lots today, with a position of approximately 69,400 lots. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,185 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,285 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season for live pigs in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue strengthening, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices; the 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.54% compared to July 11. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 07 contracts increased, while the prices of the 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased. The main contract (LH2509) closed at 14,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to July 11 [6] - The main basis in Henan decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 19.78% compared to July 11 [6] Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts and the 11 - 01 contracts [14]
现阶段外部宏观环境趋暖,商品市场价格小幅抬升,短期棉价或延续偏强走势
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-14 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]
生猪周报:多空交织盘面震荡调整-20250714
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-14 07:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. Based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with sufficient supply, it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The strengthening of the fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and the LH2509 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it's recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted oscillatory this week. On July 11, 2025, the benchmark base difference was 455 yuan/ton, compared to 1015 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025 [1][2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted oscillatory [5] - **月间价差变化**: The 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contract spreads showed strong performance [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, compared with last week, both the price and the slaughter volume decreased [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted with an overall oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it may weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [21] - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still yield considerable profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening is in a state of slight loss [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continues to increase, which is negative for future pig prices [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.92%. My steel data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.33% [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was +2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [33] 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, in May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35] 5. Import End - In May 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [38]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250711
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-10 23:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, but the demand side also provides certain support, making it difficult for pig prices to rise or fall significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On July 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,765 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots, a maximum price of 14,445 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,205 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,375 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - to - standard pig price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand during the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand supports pig prices, and it is also difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 10, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.13%. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.44 yuan/kg. Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.27%, 0.53%, 0.77%, and 0.7% respectively, while the 07 contract decreased by 0.07% [6] Key Data Tracking - The content includes historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][9][10]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250710
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-10 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing a significant price drop. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 9, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,328 lots today, with a holding of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,265 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From a historical perspective and the current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: Slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - Bullish: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual approach of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Viewpoint: Oscillatory adjustment [4]. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4]. - The recent performance of the live pig spot market shows a positive relationship between "weight reduction - stable pig prices", indicating that the demand side also provides some support for pig prices. The spread between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4]. - The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Quotes Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on July 9 was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.53%) from the previous day; in Sichuan, it was 14.44 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg (0.21%) from the previous day [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined on July 9 compared to the previous day, with the decline ranging from -0.07% to -0.62% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 805 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-8%) from the previous day [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250709
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-09 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, suggesting investors to wait and see for the time being [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 8, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price, and in the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the live pig market are not significant. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 350 lots today, with a position of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,230 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,275 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of breeding sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamental perspectives, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited in the second and third quarters. Bulls believe that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is resilient, and although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season is approaching [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term rise and fall of pig prices are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Data - On July 8, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.13% compared to the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.15 yuan/kg and 14.41 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan increasing by 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.53% and Sichuan remaining unchanged [6]. - Among the futures contracts, the 09 contract increased by 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%, while other contracts such as 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 contracts showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton or 6.06% to 875 yuan/ton [6].
生猪日报:期价震荡偏弱-20250708
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-08 05:51
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience an oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing obvious price drops. It is not recommended to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - After the recovery of the slaughter volume, the spot price has recently oscillated downward, and the LH2509 contract has also adjusted weakly [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 3,761 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,245 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices indicating a less loose supply - demand situation than the short - side believes, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market shows demand support, preventing obvious price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to low slaughter volume. If the slaughter returns to normal, the price increase is likely unsustainable, so chasing long is not recommended [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on July 7 was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from July 4 [6]. - The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% to 15.07 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.41 yuan/kg [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, and 07 contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.11% to 1.59%, while the 09 and 11 contracts decreased by 0.42% and 0.26% respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 190 yuan/ton or 18.72% to 825 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 and 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].