【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 生猪日报 | 2025-06-05 另存为PDF 1、6月4日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1200手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13520元/ 吨，最低价13390元/吨，收盘于13490元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） ...

生猪日报 | 2025-06-04 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月3日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1736手，持仓约7.74万手，最高价13645元/ 吨，最低价13485元/吨，收盘于13510元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main reasons are that the piglet data indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter volume by September, leading to abundant supply and downward pressure on prices. Also, as pig prices fall, the optimal slaughter weight decreases, forcing farmers to reduce pig weights, which further weighs on prices. Meanwhile, the LH2509 contract is currently at a relatively reasonable price level and is recommended to be observed for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The market believes that farmers are likely to reduce pig weights in June and July, which is negative for the current situation but positive for the future. Therefore, the main contract (LH2509) has been adjusted with a slight upward trend. As of May 30, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 945 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: Driven by the expectation of pig weight reduction, the prices of far - month contracts are fluctuating with a slight upward trend [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Under the drive of the expectation of pig weight reduction, there is a reverse spread trend for the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, affected by the adjustment of the slaughter rhythm and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the slaughter volume first decreased and then increased, and the pig price mainly fluctuated and adjusted [14]. - **Regional Spread**: Henan remains a high - price area [16]. - **Fat - Standard Spread**: The fat - standard spread is oscillating and adjusting [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Spread**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spread**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continues to decline, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of April was 40.38 million, unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% year - on - year. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel also show an increase in the inventory of reproductive sows in their sample areas [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows has been running weakly this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month (previous value +0.94%), indicating a continuous increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets continued to fall, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running weakly and steadily [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, up 0.5% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year. The market for frozen products has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1488手，持仓约7.94万手，最高价13690元/ 吨，最低价13380元/吨，收盘于13640元/吨。 生猪日报 | 2025-05-30 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月29日，生猪注册仓单450手； 3）现下生猪出栏体重虽略有下降，但仍处高位，利空后市，若后面出现集中降 重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-05-28 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月27日，生猪注册仓单490手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓680手，持仓约8万手，最高价13610元/吨，最 低价13495元/吨，收盘于13560元/吨。 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪分析师 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-27 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月26日，生猪注册仓单700手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1898手，持仓约8万手，最高价13640元/吨， 最低价13550元/吨，收盘于13600元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-23 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月22日，生猪注册仓单663手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓2101手，持仓约8.07万手，最高价13685元/ 吨，最低价13515元/吨，收盘于13580元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪分析师 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月21日，生猪注册仓单663手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓118手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13695元/ 吨，最低价13610元/吨，收盘于13650元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： ...

2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受后续出栏量或增加影响震荡 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓663手，持仓约7.87万手，最高价13730元/ 吨，最低价13665元/吨，收盘于13690元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 生猪日报 | 2025-05-21 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月20日，生猪注册仓单678手； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is a possibility of new lows in pig prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Based on piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until September, and with sufficient supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise strongly. However, there is still marginal profit for weight gain within 150 kg, and the entry of second - fattening may support the spot price when it drops to around 14 yuan/kg. The 2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis Situation - Affected by the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the future pig slaughter pressure to remain, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs has adjusted weakly with fluctuations. The basis of the main contract on May 16, 2025, was 1200 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate [5]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread Changes - Due to the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the slaughter pressure to shift backward. The spread between the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts shows a positive spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Price and Slaughter Volume - This week, pig prices have slightly loosened, and the slaughter volume has continued to decline [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - Overall, Henan is a high - price area this year [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spread - The fat - standard price spread is still weakly fluctuating, and the supply of fat pigs is sufficient [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Spread - Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Comparison of Related Products and Fresh - Frozen Spread - The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weight - The slaughter weight is stable. Although the weights of retail and group ports have been adjusted this week, the actual slaughter weights of both retail and group ports are still increasing [25]. 3.3 Production Capacity End 3.3.1 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of March was 40.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel show that the inventory of reproductive sows in their samples increased in April [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows has been running steadily this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets - In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to decline this week, while the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running steadily [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In March, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.63 million, a month - on - month increase of 40.7% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. Slaughter enterprises have the action of dividing and warehousing frozen products, which supports pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In March 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].