Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )

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生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250619
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-19 01:41
生猪日报 | 2025-06-19 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月18日,生猪注册仓单750手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日减仓1467手,持仓约8万手,最高价13880元/吨, 最低价13765元/吨,收盘于13835元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 另存为PDF 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢,供应压力尚未完全释放;②后续 出栏量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限; 多头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格韧性强,说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松;③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限,且三四季度 逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡偏弱; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,2025 ...
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250618
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-18 02:14
另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-18 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月17日,生猪注册仓单750手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日增仓927手,持仓约8万手,最高价13855元/吨,最 低价13755元/吨,收盘于13815元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端降重缓慢,供应压力尚未完全释放;②后续 出栏量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限; 多头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格韧性强,说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松;③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限,且三四季度 逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡偏弱; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,2025年 ...
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250617
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-17 02:40
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4]. - The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4]. - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - On June 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 500 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,850 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,750 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on June 16 was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan or 0.64% from June 13. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased to varying degrees [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of the 01, 07 contracts increased slightly, while the prices of the 03, 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased slightly [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 200 yuan to 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.5% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - The view is weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs is abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, the demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters, if there is concentrated and large - scale weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows, and the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].
生猪周报:降重继续猪价稳中偏弱调整-20250616
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-16 02:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The demand in the first half of the year is off - peak, while the second half is peak season. The fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. For the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the backdrop of spot price decline due to weight reduction, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted in a moderately strong manner. On June 13, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 320 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the backdrop of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: A decrease in slaughter volume and a drop in pig prices indicate pressure on the supply side, leading to the decline in pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is gradually returning to normal [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted weakly in a fluctuating manner. If it strengthens, it may weaken the willingness of the breeding end to reduce weight [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Price Difference**: The terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight is decreasing rapidly, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually being released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month change and a 1.3% year - on - year increase. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in May continued to increase [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15kg piglets continued to decline, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a slight weakening trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The frozen product market has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the import volume of pork was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250613
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-13 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations. The supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, and it is difficult to support a significant increase. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. However, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On June 12, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games, while the far-month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,093 lots today, with a position of approximately 79,500 lots, a maximum price of 13,770 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,540 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,750 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season. Historically and currently, the fat-to-standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On June 12, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.07 yuan/kg and 13.91 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan decreasing by 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.35% and Sichuan remaining unchanged. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts were 13,610 yuan/ton, 12,770 yuan/ton, 12,990 yuan/ton, 13,220 yuan/ton, 13,750 yuan/ton, and 13,390 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 150 yuan/ton or 1.1%. The main basis in Henan was 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 38.46% from the previous day [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts are provided, with the data source being Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250612
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-12 01:10
生猪日报 | 2025-06-12 1、6月11日,生猪注册仓单525手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日减仓888手,持仓约7.74万手,最高价13670元/ 吨,最低价13570元/吨,收盘于13600元/吨。 【基本面分析】 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端尚未进行降重,实则利空后市;②后续出栏 量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限;多 头:①冻品库存仍有增加的空间,能给猪价以支撑;②现货价格坚挺,说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松;③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限,且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点:震荡偏弱; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从母猪、仔猪数据看,2025年 ...
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250611
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-11 03:14
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250610
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-10 02:28
另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-10 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月9日,生猪注册仓单475手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日减仓1258手,持仓约7.86万手,最高价13505元/ 吨,最低价13350元/吨,收盘于13475元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 2)二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱,难以支持猪价有明显涨幅; 3)若6、7月出现集中大幅降重,猪价或出现新低; 4)虽然我们认为现货仍有新低可能,但由于其不确定性较高,且现下降重实则 利好09合约,故认为09合约价格暂处于相对合理区间,建议暂时观望。 作者: 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端尚未进行降重,实则利空后市;②后续出栏 量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑 ...
生猪周报:降重压力下,猪价下跌-20250609
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-09 04:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by September, and the pig price is prone to fall and difficult to rise under abundant supply. The reduction of the slaughter weight by farmers will put pressure on the pig price, but the strength of the price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs needs attention. The LH2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the background of falling spot prices, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted weakly. When the pig price accelerated its decline in the later part of the week, the decline of the LH2509 contract was limited [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the background of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: The decrease in slaughter volume and the fall in pig prices indicate that the supply exceeds the demand, leading to the decline of pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price in Henan region dropped significantly [16]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it may weaken the farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly positive [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight decreased slowly, and it will take some time to release the previous inventory pressure [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase in May [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, corresponding to a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: The price of 15kg piglets continued to fall this week, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The frozen product market gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [39].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250606
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-06-06 03:24
Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-06 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, a pig analyst with futures qualification F03086321 and trading consultation qualification Z0019355 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4] - The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4] - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On June 5, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0 [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games. The far-month contracts are affected by the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future supply, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 999 lots today, with a position of approximately 77,600 lots. The highest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,445 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,485 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of sow inventory, the pig supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the pig supply in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: ① Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; ② Future supply is expected to continue to increase; ③ Q2 and Q3 are not the peak consumption seasons, and demand provides limited support for pig prices. Bullish logic: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen pork inventory, which can support pig prices; ② Spot prices are firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as bears expect; ③ Although future supply will increase, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak pig consumption season [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Core logic: ① Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; ② The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly; ③ If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows; ④ Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Market Overview - On June 5, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.49% from the previous day. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.17 yuan/kg and 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg (0.84%) and 0.1 yuan/kg (0.71%) respectively [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined slightly, except for the 05 and 11 contracts, which increased by 0.12% and 0.15% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan was 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 14.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - Includes the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the spread between the 09-11 contracts, and the spread between the 11-01 contracts [14]