Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is stabilizing and rebounding, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 12, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 410 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 1,419 lots today, with a position of approximately 60,900 lots. The highest price today was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,230 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: ① The weight reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, and the supply pressure has not been fully released; ② The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; ③ It is not yet the peak consumption season in the third quarter, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. - Bullish: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; ② The spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; ③ Although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually enter the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - View: Oscillatory adjustment. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector). With abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded. Seasonally, this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to a certain extent. - If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable in the future, the pig price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is beneficial to the November contract to a certain extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Live Pig Slaughter Price**: The national average price on August 12 was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.22%) from the previous day. The price in Henan was 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg (0.29%); the price in Sichuan was 13.31 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - **Futures Price**: The prices of most futures contracts showed an upward trend, with the 11 - contract rising by 90 yuan/ton (0.64%) to 14,230 yuan/ton. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (- 11.11%) from the previous day [6].

| | | 另存为PDF | | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪周报 | | 2025-08-11 | | | 分享 | | | | 作者： | | | 【出栏体重持续下降 后市预期向好】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、8月8日，生猪注册仓单380手； | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业7月计划出栏完成率97.11%，8月计划+6.6%；整体看8月日均出栏压力明显大于7月； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪合约（LH2511）受现下降重利好后市影响震荡上行，收盘于14180元/吨，持仓量约6.02万手。 | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，下半年生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； | 邮箱地址： | | | 需求端来看，下半年消费比上半年好； | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡走强； | | | | | 联系方式： | | | 3、市场多空逻辑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs and support pig prices [4]. - If farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions in the 09 contract and wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On August 5, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,540 lots today, with a position of about 35,700 lots. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the approach of the peak consumption season [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the price will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is abundant, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, and if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions and wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On August 5, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.93 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.13 yuan/kg (a 0.36% increase) and 13.37 yuan/kg (a 0.52% decrease) respectively [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 09 contract decreased by 0.39% to 13,885 yuan/ton [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 75% to 245 yuan/ton [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between 09 - 11 contracts and 11 - 01 contracts [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 4, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,721 lots today, with a position of approximately 40,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,940 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong toughness of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual arrival of the hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support hog prices. If the breeding side continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, hog prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended that previous short positions in the 09 contract can take profits and leave the market and wait and see temporarily [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 4, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan or 0.71% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.08 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.14% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.15% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts are provided [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, but significant and continuous price increases are unlikely due to sufficient supply. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support the pig price by reducing the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. For the LH2509 contract, if there are short positions, it is advisable to consider taking profits and staying on the sidelines for the time being [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: This week, market sentiment cooled, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs weakened. On August 1st, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts have corrected [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month price spreads are oscillating and adjusting [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price first declined and then rose [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting as a whole. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce the weight of pigs or even prompt the market to increase the weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows weakened. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy newborn piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year will stop increasing and start to decline [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral to negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of shock adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention needs to be emphasized due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 30, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the farming sector will continue to reduce the weight of pigs. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,758 lots today, with a position of about 53,000 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. - Market bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen - pork inventory, strong resilience of the spot price indicating less loose supply - demand than expected, and limited increase in future slaughter volume with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - View: shock adjustment. - Core logic: based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for the pig price; if the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary [4]. Market Overview - National average pig slaughter price on July 30 was 13.93 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.07%. - In Henan, the pig slaughter price was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.29%. - In Sichuan, the pig slaughter price remained unchanged at 13.24 yuan/kg. - Among futures contracts, the price of the 07 contract increased by 0.52%, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with the 09 contract falling by 0.53%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 115 yuan to - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.76% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report presents historical data charts of futures contract closing prices, basis, and price differences between contracts in recent 180 days, as well as data on national average pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, and national average corn purchase price in grain depots [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, making it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 29, there were 205 registered hog warehouse receipts [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether hog weight will continue to be reduced [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 6,608 lots today, with a position of approximately 54,800 lots. The highest price was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pork prices as the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory to support pork prices, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side believes, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the gradual arrival of the peak hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding sector), and it is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly under ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to risk prevention and control as commodities are greatly affected by macro - sentiment [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Hog Slaughter Price**: On July 29, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.64% from the previous day. In Henan, it was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43%. In Sichuan, it was 13.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% [6]. - **Futures Price**: The 01 contract was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton or 0.66%. The 03 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33%. The 05 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The 07 contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 3.75%. The 09 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The 11 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.88% [6]. - **Main Contract Basis**: In Henan, the main contract basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 68% from the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].