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生猪周报:市场情绪降温盘面有所回调-20250804
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, but significant and continuous price increases are unlikely due to sufficient supply. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support the pig price by reducing the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. For the LH2509 contract, if there are short positions, it is advisable to consider taking profits and staying on the sidelines for the time being [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: This week, market sentiment cooled, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs weakened. On August 1st, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts have corrected [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month price spreads are oscillating and adjusting [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price first declined and then rose [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting as a whole. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce the weight of pigs or even prompt the market to increase the weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows weakened. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy newborn piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year will stop increasing and start to decline [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral to negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250801
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250731
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of shock adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention needs to be emphasized due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 30, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the farming sector will continue to reduce the weight of pigs. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,758 lots today, with a position of about 53,000 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. - Market bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen - pork inventory, strong resilience of the spot price indicating less loose supply - demand than expected, and limited increase in future slaughter volume with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - View: shock adjustment. - Core logic: based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for the pig price; if the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary [4]. Market Overview - National average pig slaughter price on July 30 was 13.93 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.07%. - In Henan, the pig slaughter price was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.29%. - In Sichuan, the pig slaughter price remained unchanged at 13.24 yuan/kg. - Among futures contracts, the price of the 07 contract increased by 0.52%, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with the 09 contract falling by 0.53%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 115 yuan to - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.76% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report presents historical data charts of futures contract closing prices, basis, and price differences between contracts in recent 180 days, as well as data on national average pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, and national average corn purchase price in grain depots [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250730
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, making it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 29, there were 205 registered hog warehouse receipts [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether hog weight will continue to be reduced [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 6,608 lots today, with a position of approximately 54,800 lots. The highest price was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pork prices as the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory to support pork prices, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side believes, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the gradual arrival of the peak hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding sector), and it is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly under ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to risk prevention and control as commodities are greatly affected by macro - sentiment [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Hog Slaughter Price**: On July 29, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.64% from the previous day. In Henan, it was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43%. In Sichuan, it was 13.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% [6]. - **Futures Price**: The 01 contract was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton or 0.66%. The 03 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33%. The 05 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The 07 contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 3.75%. The 09 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The 11 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.88% [6]. - **Main Contract Basis**: In Henan, the main contract basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 68% from the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250729
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the pig prices will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen, providing some support to pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 28, the registered pig futures warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term decline of spot prices is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 881 lots today, with a position of about 61,400 lots. The highest price was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 28, compared with July 25, the futures prices of all contracts decreased. The 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton (- 0.82%), the 03 contract decreased by 185 yuan/ton (- 1.34%), the 05 contract decreased by 155 yuan/ton (- 1.09%), the 07 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), the 09 contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton (- 1.81%), and the 11 contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [11][12].
生猪周报:市场预期向好,盘面偏强运行-20250728
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market is expected to experience volatile adjustments. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support pig prices by reducing the willingness of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. Considering the current long - short factors, it is suggested to lightly short the LH2509 contract or configure reverse spreads, but risk control should be emphasized due to the positive macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs showed a volatile and upward trend this week [3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts showed a strong upward trend [6]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The expectations for far - month contracts have increased. The reverse spread trends of the 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contracts are obvious [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices continued to decline [15]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [17]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference is generally in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even encourage weight gain [19]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [23]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach the level of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase in June [29]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows showed a weak trend this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [31]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In June, the number of newborn healthy piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of pigs for slaughter in December will stop increasing and start to decline [33]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the prices of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market is gradually entering the destocking phase for frozen products, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral - negative [37]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, remaining basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [40].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250725
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
生猪日报:期价偏强运行-20250724
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250723
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
生猪日报:期价震荡偏强-20250722
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 21, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Affected by macro - sentiment, the main contract (LH2509) increased its positions and rose, with a position of about 64,300 lots. The highest price on the day was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that subsequent slaughter increase is limited while the fourth quarter is gradually entering the peak consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 21, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from July 18. In Henan, it was 14.53 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35%. In Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan or 0.29%. Among futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally increased, with the 01 contract up 2.1%, the 03 contract up 1.81%, the 05 contract up 1.7%, the 09 contract up 1.63%, and the 11 contract up 1.72%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 80 yuan or 32.65% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data tracking charts such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].