生猪日报 | 2025-08-06 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月5日，生猪注册仓单300手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓2540手，持仓约3.57万手，今日最高价13980 元/吨，最低价13825元/吨，收盘于13885元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧 性强，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且 三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 4, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,721 lots today, with a position of approximately 40,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,940 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong toughness of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual arrival of the hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support hog prices. If the breeding side continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, hog prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended that previous short positions in the 09 contract can take profits and leave the market and wait and see temporarily [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 4, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan or 0.71% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.08 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.14% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.15% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts are provided [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, but significant and continuous price increases are unlikely due to sufficient supply. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support the pig price by reducing the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. For the LH2509 contract, if there are short positions, it is advisable to consider taking profits and staying on the sidelines for the time being [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: This week, market sentiment cooled, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs weakened. On August 1st, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts have corrected [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month price spreads are oscillating and adjusting [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price first declined and then rose [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting as a whole. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce the weight of pigs or even prompt the market to increase the weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows weakened. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy newborn piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year will stop increasing and start to decline [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral to negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].

生猪日报 | 2025-07-31 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、7月30日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪是否继续降重； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1758手，持仓约5.3万手，今日最高价14240 元/吨，最低价14005元/吨，收盘于14075元/吨。 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继续走强，也会削弱散 户群体的降重意愿，给猪价以一定支撑； 3）若接下来养殖端继续降重或体重保持稳定，则猪价或震荡偏弱调整，09合约 升水现货幅度较大，可考虑轻仓试空，也需注意目前商品受宏观情绪影响较 大，需注意风险防控（仅供参考，不构成投资建议）。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, making it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 29, there were 205 registered hog warehouse receipts [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether hog weight will continue to be reduced [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 6,608 lots today, with a position of approximately 54,800 lots. The highest price was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pork prices as the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory to support pork prices, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side believes, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the gradual arrival of the peak hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding sector), and it is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly under ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to risk prevention and control as commodities are greatly affected by macro - sentiment [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Hog Slaughter Price**: On July 29, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.64% from the previous day. In Henan, it was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43%. In Sichuan, it was 13.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% [6]. - **Futures Price**: The 01 contract was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton or 0.66%. The 03 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33%. The 05 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The 07 contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 3.75%. The 09 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The 11 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.88% [6]. - **Main Contract Basis**: In Henan, the main contract basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 68% from the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the pig prices will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen, providing some support to pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 28, the registered pig futures warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term decline of spot prices is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 881 lots today, with a position of about 61,400 lots. The highest price was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 28, compared with July 25, the futures prices of all contracts decreased. The 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton (- 0.82%), the 03 contract decreased by 185 yuan/ton (- 1.34%), the 05 contract decreased by 155 yuan/ton (- 1.09%), the 07 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), the 09 contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton (- 1.81%), and the 11 contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market is expected to experience volatile adjustments. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support pig prices by reducing the willingness of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. Considering the current long - short factors, it is suggested to lightly short the LH2509 contract or configure reverse spreads, but risk control should be emphasized due to the positive macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs showed a volatile and upward trend this week [3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts showed a strong upward trend [6]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The expectations for far - month contracts have increased. The reverse spread trends of the 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contracts are obvious [9][12]. 3.2 Spot End - **Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices continued to decline [15]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [17]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference is generally in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce weight or even encourage weight gain [19]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [21]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [23]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [25]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach the level of the same period last year [27]. 3.3 Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase in June [29]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows showed a weak trend this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [31]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In June, the number of newborn healthy piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of pigs for slaughter in December will stop increasing and start to decline [33]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the prices of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market is gradually entering the destocking phase for frozen products, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral - negative [37]. 3.5 Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, remaining basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].