1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the pig price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under the condition of sufficient supply [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and provide some support for the pig price [4]. - If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 23, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 427 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its position by 531 lots today, with a position of about 93,500 lots. The highest price today was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,655 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,665 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a fluctuating manner [3]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still at a high level, and the demand support for the pig price is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if it occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 23, the national average hog slaughter price was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.24% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 12.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.08% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 12.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared with the previous day [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 1.58%. The main contract (11 contract) closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 1.02% compared with the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 120 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton, an increase of 126.32% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Tracking data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contract, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contract are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not carried out in the text [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 22, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,706 lots today, with a position of approximately 94,000 lots. The highest price today was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,780 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,795 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not the periods of large consumption increments, and the demand has limited support for pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the farming sector has reduced the weight of pigs, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only, not as investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 22, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous period, with a decline rate of 0.31%. The average live pig slaughter price in Henan was 12.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, with a decline rate of 0.08%. The average live pig slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.34 yuan/kg [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.04%; the 03 contract was 12,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%; the 05 contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.05%; the 07 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.38%; the 09 contract was 12,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.96%; the 11 contract was 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.23% [6]. - The basis of the main contract in Henan was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, with an increase rate of 26.67% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest rate cut failed to boost the capital market, leading to a bearish market. The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 main contract was weak, breaking through the previous support level. Key variables to focus on are the Fed's future interest rate cut rhythm and its potential impact on China's Q4 economic control policies. [3][37] - The cotton market's peak season fell significantly short of expectations. The downstream demand was under pressure with insufficient new orders and slower shipment, but inventory was still being reduced. The supply side also lacked positive support, and cotton prices may remain under pressure in the short term. [3][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Weekly Data Overview**: By September 19, the CRB commodity price index slightly declined, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December dropped 0.46 cents/lb, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract for January 26 closed at 13,720 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton with increased positions. Some commodities like gold rose, while others like crude oil, soybeans, and corn fell. [2][10][11] - **Imported Cotton Quotes**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton at main ports in various countries increased slightly from September 12 to 19. [9] Part II: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On September 19, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 12, with polyester staple fiber rising and viscose falling. [15] - **Yarn Price Trends**: Domestic yarn prices increased, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns slightly decreased due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. [19][21][24] - **Cotton Price Comparison**: On September 19, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The price difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty increased, and the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also widened. [27] Part III: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232 (280,000 tons), with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased compared to September 12. [30] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On September 19, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton widened compared to September 12. [33] - **Price Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. After the rate cut, the stock and commodity markets declined. In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. New cotton has started to be listed sporadically. The domestic demand for clothing and textiles was weak. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract weakened. [34][35][39] Part IV: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Exports**: From September 5 - 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton net signings increased, while shipments decreased. Net signings of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. [42] - **ICE Cotton Futures**: On September 19, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December decreased by 0.46 cents/lb, and the technical indicators weakened. [46] Part V: Operation Suggestions - Upstream cotton enterprises can hedge risks by hedging on the futures market or buying put options based on the cost of lint cotton calculated from the purchase price of seed cotton. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of lint cotton procurement when raw material prices fall. [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. It is advisable to consider a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On September 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract (LH2511) increased its position by 4,913 lots, with a holding of about 99,000 lots. The highest price was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in September and October. The bullish logic includes beneficial weight reduction in the breeding end, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, weakening the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 4. Market Overview - On September 18, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.31%. Futures prices of various contracts generally declined, with the decline ranging from 0.79% to 1.33%. The main basis in Henan Province decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 50% [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan Province, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the pig price may rebound at the end of the year. In this case, an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 9,219 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 94,100 lots. The highest price was 13,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,995 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish factors include slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in September and October. The bullish factors include weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be in a volatile adjustment phase. The core logic is that, based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not an investment recommendation) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 17, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.99% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.14%. In Sichuan, it was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.78%. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.24%; the 03 contract remained unchanged at 13,005 yuan/ton; the 05 contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42%; the 09 contract was 12,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.88%; the 11 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The main basis in Henan was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking No detailed summary information provided other than the display of data charts, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, along with the potential for a year - end price upturn, provides some support to the market [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the slaughter weight of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 3,795 lots in positions today, with approximately 84,900 lots held. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,160 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before September and October. The bullish logic includes weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather cools down, and limited increase in future slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price may rise at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 16, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.98% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased. - Among the futures prices, most contracts showed a downward trend, with the 11 - contract closing at 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous day. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 55 yuan/ton or 64.71% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts and the 01 - 03 contracts, which can help investors understand the market trends [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 15, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 2,009 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,100 lots. The highest price today was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,120 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,275 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as September and October are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial for the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3.4 Market Overview - The national average price of live pig slaughter on September 15 was 13.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.45% compared to September 12 [6] - The average price of live pig slaughter in Henan on September 15 was 13.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.67% compared to September 12. The average price in Sichuan was 12.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg or 0.31% [6] - Among futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 0.4%, the 03 contract decreased by 0.11%, the 05 contract decreased by 0.07%, the 07 contract decreased by 0.56%, the 09 contract increased by 0.08%, and the 11 contract increased by 0.15% compared to September 12 [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report | 2025 - 09 - 15 - Author: Li Shue, Cotton Futures Analyst - Report Date: 2025 - 09 - 15 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the specific rate cut amplitude remains a concern. Market expectations for the rate cut amplitude are somewhat divided based on US economic data [3][32]. - In 2025, the national cotton planting area was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 43.58 million mu, with a total output estimated at 7.108 million tons [3][32]. - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run [3][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 One - Week Data Overview - The CRB commodity price index closed at 301.72 points on September 12, up 3.95 points from September 5. The Wenhua Commodity Index on September 12 was 163.7, down 1.42 points or 0.86% from September 5 [2][10][31]. - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. The main Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on September 12, down 140 yuan from September 5, with the position decreasing by 6,893 lots to 506,000 lots [2][10][31]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold rose by 40.9 dollars per ounce, crude oil rose by 0.63 dollars per barrel, US soybeans rose by 18.5 cents per bushel, and US corn rose by 10 cents per bushel [10]. - The import cotton CNF quotes of various countries decreased. For example, the US E/MOTM decreased by 0.3 cents per pound, and Brazil M decreased by 0.6 cents per pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On September 12, the raw material prices showed mixed trends compared with September 5. Polyester staple fiber and viscose decreased, while CCI3128 increased and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [14][15]. 3.2.2 Yarn Price Trends - On September 12, the prices of domestic and imported yarns decreased compared with September 5 [18][20][21]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On September 12, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,446 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 1,303 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale duty) was - 143 yuan per ton, also wider than that on September 5 [22]. - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed on September 12 [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of September 12, the Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts were 5,710 lots (280,000 tons), with 0 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 245,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons on September 5 [26]. 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis - On September 12, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,446 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5 [28]. 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - The latest PPI data in the US added complexity to the Fed's policy debate. In China, the consumer market was generally stable in August, and the industrial producer price index improved [30]. - At the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was slightly decreasing, and the yarn and grey fabric inventories were also decreasing [30][31]. - Technically, the MACD green column of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was shrinking, the DIFF and DEA formed a dead cross, and the KDJ indicator also formed a dead cross, indicating weakening technical indicators [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From August 22 - 28, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 55,542 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 35,085 tons, also a 37% increase. The net signing of Pima cotton this year decreased by 62%, and the shipment decreased by 69% [39]. - As of August 26, the CFTC fund net long position was - 71,720 lots, a decrease of 10,706 lots from the previous week [41]. 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and diverged upward, indicating strengthening technical indicators [42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - In the medium - and short - term, cotton may continue to be stable and slightly strong, while it may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton when the raw material prices fall [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].