Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, along with the potential for a year - end price upturn, provides some support to the market [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the slaughter weight of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 3,795 lots in positions today, with approximately 84,900 lots held. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,160 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before September and October. The bullish logic includes weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather cools down, and limited increase in future slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price may rise at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 16, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.98% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased. - Among the futures prices, most contracts showed a downward trend, with the 11 - contract closing at 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous day. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 55 yuan/ton or 64.71% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts and the 01 - 03 contracts, which can help investors understand the market trends [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 15, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 2,009 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,100 lots. The highest price today was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,120 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,275 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as September and October are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial for the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3.4 Market Overview - The national average price of live pig slaughter on September 15 was 13.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.45% compared to September 12 [6] - The average price of live pig slaughter in Henan on September 15 was 13.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.67% compared to September 12. The average price in Sichuan was 12.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg or 0.31% [6] - Among futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 0.4%, the 03 contract decreased by 0.11%, the 05 contract decreased by 0.07%, the 07 contract decreased by 0.56%, the 09 contract increased by 0.08%, and the 11 contract increased by 0.15% compared to September 12 [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report | 2025 - 09 - 15 - Author: Li Shue, Cotton Futures Analyst - Report Date: 2025 - 09 - 15 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the specific rate cut amplitude remains a concern. Market expectations for the rate cut amplitude are somewhat divided based on US economic data [3][32]. - In 2025, the national cotton planting area was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 43.58 million mu, with a total output estimated at 7.108 million tons [3][32]. - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run [3][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 One - Week Data Overview - The CRB commodity price index closed at 301.72 points on September 12, up 3.95 points from September 5. The Wenhua Commodity Index on September 12 was 163.7, down 1.42 points or 0.86% from September 5 [2][10][31]. - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. The main Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on September 12, down 140 yuan from September 5, with the position decreasing by 6,893 lots to 506,000 lots [2][10][31]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold rose by 40.9 dollars per ounce, crude oil rose by 0.63 dollars per barrel, US soybeans rose by 18.5 cents per bushel, and US corn rose by 10 cents per bushel [10]. - The import cotton CNF quotes of various countries decreased. For example, the US E/MOTM decreased by 0.3 cents per pound, and Brazil M decreased by 0.6 cents per pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On September 12, the raw material prices showed mixed trends compared with September 5. Polyester staple fiber and viscose decreased, while CCI3128 increased and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [14][15]. 3.2.2 Yarn Price Trends - On September 12, the prices of domestic and imported yarns decreased compared with September 5 [18][20][21]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On September 12, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,446 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 1,303 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale duty) was - 143 yuan per ton, also wider than that on September 5 [22]. - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed on September 12 [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of September 12, the Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts were 5,710 lots (280,000 tons), with 0 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 245,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons on September 5 [26]. 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis - On September 12, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,446 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5 [28]. 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - The latest PPI data in the US added complexity to the Fed's policy debate. In China, the consumer market was generally stable in August, and the industrial producer price index improved [30]. - At the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was slightly decreasing, and the yarn and grey fabric inventories were also decreasing [30][31]. - Technically, the MACD green column of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was shrinking, the DIFF and DEA formed a dead cross, and the KDJ indicator also formed a dead cross, indicating weakening technical indicators [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From August 22 - 28, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 55,542 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 35,085 tons, also a 37% increase. The net signing of Pima cotton this year decreased by 62%, and the shipment decreased by 69% [39]. - As of August 26, the CFTC fund net long position was - 71,720 lots, a decrease of 10,706 lots from the previous week [41]. 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and diverged upward, indicating strengthening technical indicators [42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - In the medium - and short - term, cotton may continue to be stable and slightly strong, while it may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton when the raw material prices fall [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-09-12 【期价震荡调整】 1、9月11日，生猪注册仓单428手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓234手，持仓约7.6万手，今日最高价 13370元/吨，最低价13285元/吨，收盘于13320元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 【市场动态】 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs and the potential for this difference to continue to strengthen seasonally will support pig prices to some extent. Additionally, if the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, pig prices are expected to rise at the end of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 10, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,241 lots today, with a position of approximately 75,700 lots. The highest price today was 13,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,210 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,315 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. Bulls believe that the breeding end has already reduced weight, which is beneficial for the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase will be limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. The stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs and the potential for this difference to continue to strengthen seasonally will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle of "price decline → increased slaughter enthusiasm → price decline" may form. If this cycle occurs, pig prices are expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - National live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.45% compared to September 9 [6]. - In Henan, the live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% compared to September 9 [6]. - In Sichuan, the live pig slaughter price on September 10 was 13.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% compared to September 9 [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts on September 10 showed an upward trend compared to September 9, with increases ranging from 0.42% to 0.99% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan on September 10 was 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 47.3% compared to September 9 [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-09-10 1、9月9日，生猪注册仓单428手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓547手，持仓约7.8万手，今日最高价 13310元/吨，最低价13170元/吨，收盘于13230元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继续 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-09-09 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、9月8日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓589手，持仓约7.74万手，今日最高价 13385元/吨，最低价13145元/吨，收盘于13305元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继 ...

1、9月4日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓4437手，持仓约7.8万手，今日最高价 13550元/吨，最低价13355元/吨，收盘于13365元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 生猪日报 | 2025-09-05 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需 不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进 入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2） ...

| | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-09-08 | | | | 分享 作者： | | | 【市场继续降重 猪价震荡偏弱】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、9月5日，生猪注册仓单430手； | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业7月计划出栏完成率97.11%，8月计划+6.6%；整体看8月日均出栏压力明显大于7月； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪主力合约（LH2511）震荡偏弱调整，收盘于13325元/吨，持仓量约7.8万手。 | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，下半年生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； | 邮箱地址： | | | | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 需求端来看，下半年消费比上半年好； | | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡走强； | 联系方式： | | | 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头： ...