1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. Based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with sufficient supply, it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The strengthening of the fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and the LH2509 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it's recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted oscillatory this week. On July 11, 2025, the benchmark base difference was 455 yuan/ton, compared to 1015 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025 [1][2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted oscillatory [5] - **月间价差变化**: The 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contract spreads showed strong performance [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, compared with last week, both the price and the slaughter volume decreased [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted with an overall oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it may weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [21] - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still yield considerable profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening is in a state of slight loss [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continues to increase, which is negative for future pig prices [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.92%. My steel data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.33% [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was +2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [33] 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, in May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35] 5. Import End - In May 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, but the demand side also provides certain support, making it difficult for pig prices to rise or fall significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On July 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,765 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots, a maximum price of 14,445 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,205 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,375 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - to - standard pig price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand during the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand supports pig prices, and it is also difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 10, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.13%. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.44 yuan/kg. Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.27%, 0.53%, 0.77%, and 0.7% respectively, while the 07 contract decreased by 0.07% [6] Key Data Tracking - The content includes historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing a significant price drop. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 9, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,328 lots today, with a holding of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,265 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From a historical perspective and the current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: Slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - Bullish: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual approach of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Viewpoint: Oscillatory adjustment [4]. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4]. - The recent performance of the live pig spot market shows a positive relationship between "weight reduction - stable pig prices", indicating that the demand side also provides some support for pig prices. The spread between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4]. - The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Quotes Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on July 9 was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.53%) from the previous day; in Sichuan, it was 14.44 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg (0.21%) from the previous day [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined on July 9 compared to the previous day, with the decline ranging from -0.07% to -0.62% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 805 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-8%) from the previous day [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, suggesting investors to wait and see for the time being [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 8, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price, and in the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the live pig market are not significant. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 350 lots today, with a position of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,230 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,275 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of breeding sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamental perspectives, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited in the second and third quarters. Bulls believe that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is resilient, and although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season is approaching [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term rise and fall of pig prices are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Data - On July 8, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.13% compared to the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.15 yuan/kg and 14.41 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan increasing by 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.53% and Sichuan remaining unchanged [6]. - Among the futures contracts, the 09 contract increased by 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%, while other contracts such as 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 contracts showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton or 6.06% to 875 yuan/ton [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience an oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing obvious price drops. It is not recommended to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - After the recovery of the slaughter volume, the spot price has recently oscillated downward, and the LH2509 contract has also adjusted weakly [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 3,761 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,245 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices indicating a less loose supply - demand situation than the short - side believes, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market shows demand support, preventing obvious price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to low slaughter volume. If the slaughter returns to normal, the price increase is likely unsustainable, so chasing long is not recommended [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on July 7 was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from July 4 [6]. - The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% to 15.07 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.41 yuan/kg [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, and 07 contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.11% to 1.59%, while the 09 and 11 contracts decreased by 0.42% and 0.26% respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 190 yuan/ton or 18.72% to 825 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 and 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing significant price drops. It is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 3, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 450 lots [2]. - The spot price and the LH2509 contract both underwent oscillatory adjustment, awaiting new driving factors [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,273 lots, with a remaining position of approximately 79,700 lots. The highest price was 14,420 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,250 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,370 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall supply of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase in an oscillatory manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may experience oscillatory adjustment [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent supply, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent supply, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The recommended strategy is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. The current "weight reduction - stable price" relationship in the spot market indicates that demand provides some support, preventing significant price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at the same level as the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to reduced supply from the breeding sector. If the supply returns to normal, the price increase is unlikely to be sustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 3, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.46 yuan/kg, a 1.05% increase from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price in Henan was 15.41 yuan/kg, a 0.26% decrease, and the price in Sichuan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.22% increase [6]. - The futures prices of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the 09 contract closed at 14,370 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a 6.31% decrease [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts for futures contracts' closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of volatile adjustment, and suggests temporarily observing the LH2509 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On June 26, there were 750 registered live pig warehouse receipts [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery, while the far - month contracts fluctuate due to the current weight reduction being beneficial to the future market and the expected increase in future market supply [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 733 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,800 lots, a maximum price of 14,080 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,990 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,040 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although there will be an increase in future slaughter volume, it is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will experience volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current live pig spot market shows a positive triangular relationship of "increasing slaughter volume - decreasing weight - stable pig prices", indicating certain support from the demand side. The LH2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and the current weight reduction in the breeding sector is beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, it is recommended to temporarily observe the LH2509 contract [4] Market Overview - On June 26, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.56 yuan/kg, a 0.55% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 07 and 09 contracts increased, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, and 11 contracts decreased [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 15% to 920 yuan/ton [6] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the price of the 2509 contract of live pigs will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment and suggests temporary observation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 25, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day; the futures prices of various contracts all increased, with the 07 contract rising 0.48% to 13,615 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rising 0.43% to 14,000 yuan/ton; the main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton [6]. Market Dynamics - On June 25, there were 750 registered live pig warrants; the LH2507 contract is mainly about spot-futures convergence and delivery games, and the far-month contracts are oscillating due to factors such as weight reduction benefiting the future market and expected increase in future market supply; the main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 369 lots today, with a position of about 81,000 lots, a high of 14,015 yuan/ton, a low of 13,930 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,000 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited; from the perspective of piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025; the first half of the year is the off-season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short-side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season; the long-side logic includes room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Recommendations - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the current live pig spot market shows a benign triangular relationship, indicating that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly; the 2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and weight reduction in the breeding sector benefits the 09 contract, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].