生猪日报 | 2025-05-16 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月15日，生猪注册仓单701手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受后续出栏量或增加影响震荡 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓5221手，持仓约7.76万手，最高价14015元/ 吨，最低价13735元/吨，收盘于13780元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-13 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月12日，生猪注册仓单704手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月矛盾仍在积累盘面震荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓35手，持仓约7.14万手，最高价13930元/吨， 最低价13855元/吨，收盘于13870元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2 ...

下载图片 另存为PDF 分享 生猪周报 | 2025-05-12 【多空交织 猪价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月9日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、钢联数据显示，5月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+1.22%；涌益咨询数据显示，5月其样本点计划出栏量环比+1.98%； 3、主力合约（LH2509）震荡调整，收盘于13925元/吨，持仓量约7.13万手。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； 需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需 求对猪价的支撑有限；多头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续 出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：现货短期震荡，中长期不排除猪价新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-09 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月8日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月矛盾仍在积累盘面震荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1245手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价13985元/ 吨，最低价13865元/吨，收盘于13910元/吨。 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and relatively reasonable current futures prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On May 7, there were 705 registered pig futures warehouse receipts [3] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in far - month contracts are still accumulating with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [3] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,403 lots today, with a position of about 72,200 lots, a maximum price of 14,035 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,940 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,985 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [1] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [1] - Bearish factors: the breeding side has not reduced the weight of pigs, which is bearish for the future market; the subsequent number of slaughterings is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. Bullish factors: the inventory of slaughtering enterprises is not complete, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent number of slaughterings will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season will gradually arrive in the third and fourth quarters; the rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase the cost of pig breeding [1] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term due to sufficient pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, weak demand support, and the breeding side still increasing inventory [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now because of high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term, weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, and relatively reasonable futures prices [2] Market Data - On May 7, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.81 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.05 yuan/kg (0.33%) to 15.06 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan/kg (0.14%) to 14.76 yuan/kg [4] - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased slightly on May 7, with the 01 - contract up 0.22%, the 03 - contract up 0.38%, the 07 - contract up 0.26%, the 09 - contract up 0.18%, and the 11 - contract up 0.07%. The 05 - contract remained unchanged [4] - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 25 yuan/ton (2.38%) to 1,075 yuan/ton on May 7 [4]

【市场动态】 1、5月6日，生猪注册仓单705手； 生猪日报 | 2025-05-07 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏有望增加影响 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1030手，持仓约7.08万手，最高价13970元/ 吨，最低价13855元/吨，收盘于13960元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、 ...

【市场动态】 1、4月29日，生猪注册仓单705手； 另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-30 【期价震荡调整】 2、LH2505合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏有望增加影响 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓421手，持仓约7.29万手，最高价14130元/ 吨，最低价13910元/吨，收盘于13930元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差仍有回落空间； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-29 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、4月28日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2505合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏增量有限且下 半年属消费旺季、远月养殖成本可能抬升的预期影响支撑较强； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1071手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价14230元/ 吨，最低价14100元/吨，收盘于14130元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差仍有回落空间； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term cotton prices may face pressure near the gap. Although the macro - environment is expected to improve, the fundamentals are weak and macro uncertainties remain, so the short - term outlook for cotton prices is not optimistic [3][37] - The cotton spinning market continues to fluctuate, with the off - season gradually emerging. Demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices [3][10] Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1. Weekly Data Overview - From April 17 to April 25, the CRB commodity price index rose from 296.38 to 298.46, a cumulative increase of 2.08 points, or 0.70%. The Wenhua Commodity Index increased from April 18 to April 25, with an increase of 1.47, or 0.93%. The ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose from 67.11 to 68.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound, or 2.37%. The Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract rose from 12885 to 12990 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,000 lots to 572,000 lots [2][6][8] - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold and crude oil prices declined, while the prices of some agricultural products such as US soybeans rose [8] 2. Cotton Import Quotations in Various Countries - From April 18 to April 25, the CNF quotations of imported cotton in various countries increased, and the corresponding after - tax prices also increased [9] Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 1. Trend of Textile Mainstream Raw Materials - On April 25, compared with April 18, the price centers of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and CCI3128 showed mixed trends [14] 2. Trend of Cotton Yarn Prices - On April 25, except for R30S, the price centers of domestic yarns decreased compared with April 18. The price centers of foreign yarns in RMB terms also decreased, while the overall price center of foreign yarns remained unchanged [17][21][22] 3. Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On April 25, the spot price index and the difference between the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty also increased. The difference between domestic and foreign yarns and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton also increased [24][25][28] Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market 1. Situation of Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of April 25, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,555 lots (454,000 tons), the valid forecasts were 1,938 lots (83,000 tons), and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 537,000 tons, a decrease from April 18 [31] 2. Analysis of the Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - On April 25, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1234 yuan/ton, a decrease from April 18, indicating that the difference between futures and spot prices had narrowed [33] 3. Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices - Macroscopically, Trump's remarks and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut expectations have boosted market confidence. Domestically, positive policies such as the issuance of special treasury bonds and the continuation of MLF have been implemented [34] - In terms of supply, the total commercial cotton inventory continues to decline, and domestic new cotton sowing is in the later stage, expected to end by the end of April. In terms of demand, the off - season of the downstream market has emerged, demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices, and the industry's mentality is cautious [3][35][37] - Technically, the MACD red column of the Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [39] Part IV: Analysis of the International Market 1. Export Dynamics of US Cotton - From April 11 - 17, the net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton decreased compared with the previous week, and the shipment volume also decreased. The net signing and shipment volumes of Pima cotton increased. As of April 17, 2025, the cumulative net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual cotton exports reached 107.55% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 68.31% [43] - As of April 15, the net long position of funds in CFTC increased by 5,622 lots compared with the previous week [44] 2. Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures - On April 25, the ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose by 2.37% compared with April 17. Technically, the MACD red column is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [45] Part V: Operation Suggestions - It is advisable for upstream cotton processing enterprises to conduct batch point - pricing of their existing lint inventories when the price rebounds - Downstream textile enterprises should purchase raw materials in batches according to order situations and can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of lint procurement [47]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The basis for the view is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak, and the increasing live - weight of pigs indicates inventory accumulation by farmers [4]. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On April 23, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 665 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly subject to spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectation of limited increase in subsequent supply, the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, and potential increase in far - month breeding costs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,239 lots in positions today, with an open interest of about 80,000 lots. The highest price was 14,490 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,325 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - to - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Market bearish logic: Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support for pig prices is limited in Q2 and Q3 [3]. - Market bullish logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; the subsequent increase in supply is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase pig breeding costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of pigs will be abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support is weak in Q2 and Q3, the live - weight of pigs is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by farmers, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Market Overview - On April 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.98 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.97 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.2%) from the previous day. In Sichuan, it was 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - For futures prices, all contracts showed a decline on April 23 compared to the previous day, with the decline rate of the 09 contract being - 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 90 yuan/ton (17.48%) to 605 yuan/ton [6].