Industry Overview - The beer industry in 2024 is experiencing a significant divergence, with some companies thriving while others struggle, reflecting a structural adjustment within the market [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue, making beer the only category in the food and beverage sector to see a revenue drop [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top six companies (CR6) holding a market share of 92.6% [3] - Beer production has been declining since its peak in 2013, leading to a contraction in the overall consumption market, which directly impacts the performance of leading companies [3] Financial Performance - Major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery reported revenue declines of 8.89%, 0.76%, and 5.3% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Net profits for Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer also fell by 14.8%, 8.03%, and 17.05% respectively, attributed to weak consumer demand and challenges in traditional sales channels [4][5] Growth Segmentation - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are exceptions, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit, with Yanjing's revenue increasing by 3.20% and net profit by 54.87% [5] - Yanjing U8 has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end market, achieving a 31.40% increase in sales volume [6] Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus towards operational efficiency and market segmentation to find sustainable profit growth in a saturated market [8][9] - Budweiser APAC is reallocating resources from super-premium products to the core price segment of 8-10 yuan, which is performing better in the current consumption environment [7][8] Cost Management - Several companies, including Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer, have reduced their sales costs by 8.93% and 2.93% respectively, due to lower barley prices and improved cost control measures [9][10] - Qingdao Beer managed to achieve a slight net profit increase despite revenue decline by reducing various operational costs [10][12] Marketing Innovations - Companies are adopting innovative marketing strategies to engage younger consumers, such as emotional and scenario-based marketing [13][14] - Budweiser APAC is focusing on expanding non-drinking channels and targeting new consumption scenarios, while China Resources Beer has seen over 30% growth in online business [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company aims to prioritize sales recovery, with expectations for improvement in demand during the peak season of 2025 [1][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.1% [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.097 billion, 5.780 billion, and 6.458 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.74, 4.24, and 4.73 yuan [4][5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2025, beer sales increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the price per ton decreased by 0.6% [5] - The main brand and sub-brands saw sales growth of 4.1% and 2.8% respectively, with mid-to-high-end beer sales increasing by 5.3% [5] Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin improved by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin increased by 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management despite pricing pressures [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 33.689 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20.1, 17.7, and 15.8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.91%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.71 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.603 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year [1][4] - The report indicates that the company continues to benefit from cost advantages and a decrease in expense ratios, contributing to profit growth [4] - The long-term outlook for the beer industry is considered clear and stable, with expectations for good profit elasticity due to ongoing cost benefits and a low base for recovery [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.937 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline to 32.138 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 33.456 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 4.268 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.698 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 38.7% in 2023 to 41.6% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.13 yuan in 2023 to 3.44 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 23.78 to 21.60 [3][4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].

作者：Abby 编辑：Panda 这是见手青，口感鲜美的同时，也是云南出了名的"红伞伞白杆杆"。 见手青 图片来源：云南野生农副产品精品京东店 这是见手青精酿啤酒，喝上一口……应该不会"躺板板"，但是从广告语"勇敢的人，你先走"来看，尝试也是需要勇气的。 「闹江湖」见手青精酿啤酒 图片来源：闹江湖见手青精酿啤酒抖音店 想要尝试见手青啤酒的人并不在少数，不少博主纷纷"抢着"做起了产品评测。在猎奇心的驱使下，"围观"的网友越来越多，话题的热度也越来越高。截至发 稿前，抖音 #见手青啤酒话题下相关视频播放量超2600多万次 ，部分视频有着上万的点赞量以及上千条评论。 流量直接带来的是销量。在抖音商城，一款名为「娇蛮萝莉」见手青啤酒的购买界面就标注有"近90天250万+人逛过""月销量上涨超2倍"的标签，而另一款 名为「闹江湖」见手青精酿啤酒同样也收获了不小的流量和热度。 「娇蛮萝莉」见手青啤酒 图片来源：娇蛮萝莉见手青啤酒抖音店 盒马是风味创新的玩家之一，其自有品牌「盒马」上线了四款创新口味的啤酒，分别是柠香单丛（又作柠檬乌龙）鲜啤酒、冰糖葫芦风味鲜啤酒、双柚拉格 啤酒以及原液冷萃龙井鲜啤酒。其中，柠香单丛、双柚拉 ...

Group 1: Market Developments - Jiang Jia led a team to investigate the UAE market, emphasizing the importance of the region for Wuliangye's strategic layout and future efforts in channel construction and brand promotion [1] - Xifeng Wine held a business meeting to deploy strategies for the Jiangsu market, highlighting its strong development foundation [1] - Yunmen Wine established a liaison office in Japan and an Osaka tasting center, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion, up 17.29% [1] - Yanghe Co. achieved a revenue of 28.876 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 6.673 billion [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue for 2024 was 7.344 billion, up 8.46%, with a net profit increase of 13.45% to 2.589 billion [1] - Kouzi Jiao reported a revenue of 6.015 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.89%, but a net profit decrease of 3.83% to 1.655 billion [1] - Yilite's revenue for 2024 was 2.203 billion, down 1.27%, with a net profit decline of 15.91% to 0.286 billion [1] - Jiugui Wine's revenue fell to 1.423 billion in 2024, a decrease of 49.70%, with a net profit drop of 97.72% to 0.012 billion [1][2] - Jinzongzi Wine reported a revenue of 0.925 billion in 2024, down 37.04%, resulting in a net loss of 0.258 billion [2] Group 3: Industry Standards and Sustainability - The national standard for "Rice Aroma Type Baijiu" was released, indicating regulatory developments in the industry [3] - New Zealand's wine industry reported significant sustainability achievements, with 68% of wineries implementing carbon reduction measures, reflecting a growing trend towards environmental responsibility [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

盈利预测：看好25Q2&Q3 低基数下公司销量端持续改善。24 年公司经历库存水平调整，整体渠道库存 良性，叠加Q2&3 销量基数较低。我们看好公司量端的恢复弹性。我们预计公司25-27 年实现营收 331.4/340.6/349.0 亿元，分别同比+3.1%/+2.8%/+2.5%，实现归母净利润47.4/50.2/52.4 亿元，分别同比 +9.0%/+6.0%/+4.4%，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 成本端红利延续，毛利率提升，盈利能力有所提升。25Q1 公司吨成本同比-2.6%，毛利率同比+1.2pcts 至41.6%。费用端，销售/管理/财务费用率分别同比-0.3pcts/-0.2pcts/+0.4pcts。在毛利率提升及费控良好 的带动下，25Q1 公司归母净利率同比+0.6pcts至16.4%，扣非归母净利率同比+0.4pcts至15.3%。 事件：公司发布2025 年第一季度报告，25Q1 实现营业收入104.5 亿元，同比+2.9%；实现归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比+7.1%；实现扣非归母净利润16.0亿元，同比+5.9%。 25Q1 销量改善兑现，展望Q2&Q3，在低基数下销量有望持续改善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve better-than-industry performance in 2025 due to low base effects and strengthened internal momentum, with projected EPS of 3.55, 3.86, and 4.19 RMB for 2025-2027 [4][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue and net profit growth of 2.9% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with expectations [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.45 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.71 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 41.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The sales volume of beer reached 2.261 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, driven by the recovery in the restaurant sector and inventory destocking [2][3]. Cost and Efficiency - The report highlights significant cost benefits, with a 2.6% decrease in per-ton cost and a 0.3 percentage point reduction in sales expense ratio, contributing to improved profitability [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to continue supporting profit margins [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is entering a peak season for inventory replenishment, with expectations for accelerated sales growth as northern weather warms and economic activity increases [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the restaurant sector will boost sales of mid-to-high-end products, while the company continues to promote the canned format of lower-end products [3][4].

证券研究报告 青岛啤酒 (168 HK/600600 CH) Q1 销售恢复/成本改善拉动利润稳增 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 29 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 饮料 | 25Q1 营 收 /归母净利润/扣非归母净利 104.5/17.1/16.0 亿元，同 比 +2.9%/+7.1%/+5.9%，业绩符合预期（我们前瞻预计 25Q1 公司营收同比 +3%，归母净利同比+8%）。收入端，25Q1 销量/吨酒收入同比+3.5 %/-0.6%， 低基数、低库存下 Q1 补库拉动销量恢复增长，春节错期导致吨酒收入同比 略降；利润端，成本红利拉动毛利率同比+1.2pct，叠加费效比提升，归母 净利率同比+0.6pct。展望来看，当前逐渐步入旺季备货期，随北方天气升 温、经济活力逐渐激活、销售增长有望提速；25 年内部高考核、重视费效 比、成本红利延续之下，收入、利润有望延续较快增长，维持"买入"评级。 销售回暖，韧性升级 25Q1 公司啤酒销量 226.1 万吨，同比+3.5%，销量恢复增长得益于下游餐 饮门店开店率、客流等同比触底趋稳，且 ...