Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has surged to 99%, marking the first cut since December 2024, which is expected to reignite global liquidity and create significant opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to provide "triple thrust" for non-ferrous metals: 1. A 1% decline in the US dollar index typically results in a 2.3% increase in prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum. Current LME copper prices have surpassed $9,700 per ton, with expectations to exceed $10,500 post-rate cut [3] 2. Lower financing costs will alleviate financial pressures on mining giants, enhancing capital expenditure flexibility [3] 3. Inflation trading is expected to resurge, with gold's role as an inflation hedge becoming more prominent. Global gold ETF inflows surged 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with COMEX gold prices exceeding $3,600 per ounce [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Key performance indicators highlight companies with strong fundamentals: 1. Zijin Mining's net profit is projected to increase by 42% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with copper mining costs controlled below $3,800 per ton, compared to the industry average of $4,500 [4] 2. Yunnan Aluminum's hydropower aluminum costs are $2,000 per ton lower than thermal power, with a gross margin increase to 21.7% [4] 3. The demand for copper in electric vehicles is significantly higher, with 83 kg per vehicle compared to 23 kg for traditional cars, and solar installations consuming 500 tons of copper per GW, indicating a locked-in demand for upstream resources [5] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The non-ferrous sector currently has a PE ratio of approximately 24, but there is significant internal differentiation: 1. Lithium stocks are overvalued, with PE ratios exceeding 40 (e.g., Ganfeng Lithium at 45), while lithium carbonate prices remain low, raising concerns about earnings realization [6] 2. Copper and aluminum leaders have PE ratios below 15 (e.g., Zijin Mining at 13), with institutional forecasts predicting over 30% net profit growth in 2025, indicating substantial valuation recovery potential [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes: 1. Positioning with a total allocation of ≤15%, prioritizing a combination of gold (as an inflation hedge) and copper (due to industrial demand) [7] 2. Buying opportunities are suggested based on the Fed's rate cut magnitude, with a 50 basis point cut prompting immediate buying, while a 25 basis point cut would warrant waiting for a pullback [7] 3. Strict stop-loss rules are advised, with a 8% loss threshold for individual stocks and a sell-off if prices fall below the 20-day moving average [7] Group 5: Key Stocks to Watch - Notable stocks include: 1. Zijin Mining (601899): A global copper mining leader, with short-term performance linked to the recovery of the Kamoa copper mine [8] 2. Shandong Gold (600547): The largest domestic gold producer, benefiting from a cost advantage over peers [8] 3. Yunnan Aluminum (000807): A benchmark for hydropower aluminum, with ongoing premium for green aluminum [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the performance of non-ferrous metal companies in the first half of the year remains robust, with Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining leading with profit growth exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining show strong profit growth of over 50% [1] - China Hongqiao and Jiangxi Copper follow, while China Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum's profits remain relatively flat [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The copper industry focuses on mergers and acquisitions, production growth, and niche metal business expansion [1] - The aluminum sector emphasizes dividend distribution and share buybacks [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS raises full-year profit forecasts for Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper by 6%, 11%, and 26% respectively [1] - The target prices for Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are increased to HKD 32.5 and HKD 16.5 respectively [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 27.1 [1] Group 4: Preferred Stocks - China Hongqiao remains UBS's top pick in the aluminum sector due to its potential for deleveraging and commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a target price of HKD 26.8 and a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Commodity ETF (510170), which opened down 0.73% at 1.088 yuan on September 4 [1] - The major holdings of the Commodity ETF include Dongyangguang, which rose by 2.56%, and several other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Huayou Cobalt, which experienced slight declines [1] - The performance benchmark for the Commodity ETF is the Shanghai Commodity Stock Index, managed by Guolian An Fund Management Company, with a return of 36.36% since its inception on November 26, 2010, and a return of 12.14% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - A total of 91 stocks reached a 52-week high as of September 3, with the top three being Brightsun Holdings (08603), Hualian International (00969), and Shuoao International (02336), achieving high rates of 109.42%, 59.09%, and 45.10% respectively [1] - Brightsun Holdings closed at 2.100, with a peak price of 4.000, marking a significant increase of 109.42% [1] - Hualian International and Shuoao International also showed strong performance, closing at 0.250 and 0.212, with peak prices of 0.350 and 0.370, reflecting increases of 59.09% and 45.10% respectively [1] Group 2 - Other notable stocks that reached new highs include Tianrui Automotive Interior (06162) with a high rate of 26.58%, and Saint Noble Pharmaceuticals - B (02257) with a high rate of 24.40% [1] - International Commercial Settlement (00147) and Clover Biotech - B (02197) also performed well, achieving high rates of 24.07% and 23.44% respectively [1] - The data indicates a strong upward trend in the stock market, with several companies showing significant growth in their stock prices [1] Group 3 - The report also highlights stocks that reached 52-week lows, with Ronghui Holdings (08213) showing the largest decline at -13.79% [3] - Other companies experiencing declines include Global Friendly Drink Smart (08496) and Junan Holdings (01559), with decreases of -6.12% and -5.97% respectively [3] - The presence of both high-performing and low-performing stocks suggests a mixed market environment, indicating varying levels of investor confidence across different sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising, while the metal sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, experiences significant inflows due to multiple favorable factors including rising global inflation expectations, accelerated de-dollarization, and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][8]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen continuous capital inflow for four consecutive days, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) attracting over 200 million yuan in this period, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF's constituent stocks have shown mixed performance, with precious metals like silver and gold stocks experiencing strong gains, while some stocks like China Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum have faced corrections [3][4]. Precious Metals - Spot gold prices surged, breaking through $3,545 per ounce, while COMEX gold reached a new high of $3,600 per ounce, reflecting strong market demand [5]. - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to multiple uncertainties in the market, including legal changes in trade policies and rising long-term bond yields, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [7]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the combination of reduced supply of copper and the upcoming demand season will support copper prices, with expectations of a significant decrease in production due to supply chain constraints [8]. - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is highlighted as a leading investment option in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a historical cumulative return of 140% from 2019 to August 2025, driven primarily by profit growth rather than valuation expansion [8].

Group 1 - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 increased by 15.4% year-on-year, reaching 4.17 billion yuan, despite a 5.9% decline in operating revenue to 257 billion yuan due to a proactive reduction in trading business [1] - The increase in profit is primarily attributed to rising copper prices, as well as higher prices for precious metals (gold and silver) and by-product sulfuric acid [1] - The company successfully launched the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which is the largest open-pit tungsten mine globally, with a resource of 233,000 tons of tungsten trioxide and a reserve of 145,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The company is the largest shareholder of First Quantum, a copper-focused mining company with proven and controlled copper resources of 35.5 million tons and six operating copper mines globally [2] - The Panama copper mine, which is expected to resume production in the second half of 2026, had an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons before its suspension, with significant profitability in previous years [2] - Starting in 2024, the company will convert its investment in First Quantum from a financial instrument to a long-term equity investment, which could significantly enhance its profits if the Panama copper mine resumes production [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 326.9 billion yuan, 331.5 billion yuan, and 331.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 8.11 billion yuan, 8.94 billion yuan, and 9.62 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company has a low-cost domestic large open-pit copper mine, stable profitability, and is set to benefit from the production ramp-up of the world's largest open-pit tungsten mine and the recovery of First Quantum [4] - The reasonable valuation range for the company is estimated to be between 35.1 and 37.4 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% to 34% relative to the current stock price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's stock surged over 8% following the announcement of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating positive market sentiment despite a decline in revenue [1] Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of approximately 256.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.97% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 4.451 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.78% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.29 yuan, with an interim dividend of 0.4 yuan per share [1] Market Analysis - Citigroup raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from 19.1 HKD to 27.9 HKD and for A-shares from 25 HKD to 33.8 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The bank initiated a 90-day positive catalyst observation for Jiangxi Copper, citing a reduction in China's copper cathode production and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as potential short-term support for copper-related stocks [1] Industry Context - On August 28, Jiaxin International Resources was officially listed, with its Bakuta tungsten mine being the fourth largest WO mineral resource globally, possessing the largest designed tungsten production capacity in a single mine [1] - Jiangxi Copper holds a 31.24% stake in Jiaxin International Resources, which has begun to release production from the Bakuta tungsten mine [1]

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) saw its stock price rise by 8.14% to HKD 25.24, with a trading volume of HKD 315 million [1] - For the first half of 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported revenue of approximately CNY 256.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was about CNY 4.451 billion, an increase of 19.78% [1] - Citigroup raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from HKD 19.1 to HKD 27.9 and for A-shares from CNY 25 to CNY 33.8, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - Jaxin International Resources officially listed on August 28, and its Bakuta tungsten mine is the fourth largest WO₃ mineral resource globally, with the largest designed tungsten production capacity in a single mine [2] - The company holds a 31.24% stake in Jaxin International Resources, which has begun to release production from the Bakuta tungsten mine [2]

Group 1 - Copper prices reached a two-month high, supported by a weaker dollar, positive economic data from China, and optimistic expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut [1][2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper rose by 0.9% to $9,971 per ton, with an earlier peak of $9,984.50 per ton [2] - Chinese refined copper apparent consumption is expected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to Zijin Mining Group [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that while expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts provide support, a loose physical market and ongoing weak economic data may pressure the industry [2] - CITIC Securities reported that the domestic copper mining sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has been running between 10-15x over the past three years, with continuous valuation increases this year due to declining supply growth and strong domestic demand [2] - The domestic copper mining sector is expected to see improvements in both profitability and valuation, with copper prices potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in Q3-Q4 2025 [2] Group 3 - Related companies in the copper mining sector include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), Zijin Mining (02899), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358), and China Railway (601390)(00390) [3]

Group 1 - Copper prices reached a two-month high, supported by a weaker dollar, positive economic data from China, and optimistic expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut [1][2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper rose by 0.9% to $9,971 per ton, with an earlier peak of $9,984.50 per ton [2] - Chinese refined copper apparent consumption is expected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to Zijin Mining Group [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that while expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts provide support, a loose physical market and ongoing weak economic data may pressure the industry [2] - CITIC Securities reported that the domestic copper mining sector's PE ratio has been running between 10-15x over the past three years, with continuous valuation increases this year due to declining supply growth and strong domestic demand [2] - The domestic copper mining sector is expected to see improvements in both profitability and valuation, with copper prices potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in Q3-Q4 2025 [2] Group 3 - Related companies in the copper mining sector listed in Hong Kong include Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), and China Railway (00390) [3]