Group 1 - HSBC maintains a hold rating on SenseTime (00020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 3.1, citing the company's "1+X" strategic transformation and improved market sentiment, but warns of potential supply bottlenecks in AI chip resources [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 544, expecting structural increases in southbound capital flow and participation due to the company's diversified offerings [1] - Citic Lyon reiterates a market outperform rating on CATL (03750.HK) and raises the H-share target price to HKD 670, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle and ESS markets, with a projected 10% increase in battery shipments from 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on Ping An Insurance (02318.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 70, adjusting earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 1.9%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Morgan Stanley gives China Life Insurance (02628.HK) an overweight rating and raises the H-share target price to HKD 25.7, with earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 increased by 13.1%, 1%, and 1.9% respectively, benefiting from a rising stock market and stable sales growth [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs reiterates a buy rating on Baidu (09888.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 150, highlighting the rapid growth of non-search businesses and the acceleration of AI value release [4] - Guotai Junan maintains an overweight rating on Boss Zhipin (02076.HK) with a target price of HKD 109.66, noting a 30.9% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit and steady progress in AI commercialization in recruitment scenarios [4] - Guotai Junan maintains an overweight rating on Super盈 International Holdings (02111.HK) with a target price of HKD 4.42, emphasizing the company's strong position in the elastic fabric sector and consistent high dividend yield [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) Board meeting is scheduled for November 5, 2025, to approve the publication of the unaudited consolidated performance announcement for HKEX and its subsidiaries for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1]

根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第三十八章，證券及期貨事務監察委員會監管香港 交易及結算所有限公司有關其股份在香港聯合交易所有限公司上市的事宜。證券及期貨事務監察委 員會對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本 公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 香港，2025 年 9 月 19 日 於本公告日期，香港交易所董事會包括 12 名獨立非執行董事，分別是唐家成先生（主席）、 聶雅倫先生、白禮仁先生、陳健波先生、謝清海先生、張明明女士、車品覺先生、周胡慕芳女士、 丁晨女士、梁柏瀚先生、任志剛先生及張懿宸先生，以及一名身兼香港交易所集團行政總裁的執行 董事陳翊庭女士。 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：388（港幣櫃台）及 80388（人民幣櫃台） 董事會召開日期 香港交易及結算所有限公司（「香港交易所」） 宣 布 ， 香 港 交 易 所 董 事 會 會 議 將於 2025 年 11 月 5 日（星期三）舉行，藉以（其中包括）批准刊發香港交易所及 其附屬公司截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日止九個月的未經審核綜合業績公 ...

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index opened high but closed lower, with investors taking profits and waiting for a buying opportunity around 26,300-26,400 [1] - The index reached a high of 27,058 points but closed at 26,544 points, signaling a "sell" [1] - Support levels are identified at 25,859 points and 25,300 points, while resistance is at 27,300 points [1] Group 2: HSBC Holdings - Investors view interest rate cuts as beneficial for HSBC, with expectations for the stock to rise to 110 HKD [3] - Some investors anticipate a decline to the range of 96-100 HKD, opting for put options [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing - The stock experienced a significant drop, closing at 444 HKD, which is within the Bollinger Band's middle line [5] - Short-term technical signals suggest a "buy" with resistance levels at 459 HKD and 470 HKD [5] - For those considering entry at lower levels, support is noted at 436 HKD and 428 HKD [5] Group 4: Ping An Insurance - The stock is trading within a sideways range, with a closing price of 54.25 HKD, near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band [8] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [8] - Support levels are at 52.7 HKD and 51 HKD, with options available at a strike price of 43.83 HKD [8] Group 5: Baidu Group - Baidu's stock closed at 132.8 HKD, above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, with a high of 38.4 HKD during the day [11] - The data signal indicates a "sell," with support levels at 114.2 HKD and 103.2 HKD [11] - Investors holding bear certificates have a safe recovery price of 150 HKD, with resistance levels at 140 HKD and 162 HKD [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is experiencing fluctuations in trading volume, leading to mixed short-term performance expectations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to the anticipated listing of new economy companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent trading data indicates a significant drop in HKEX stock price, returning to the middle of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Short-term technical signals suggest a "buy" recommendation, with resistance levels at HKD 459 and HKD 470, while support levels are at HKD 436 and HKD 428 [1] - The probability of HKEX stock price increasing is assessed at 55%, with a recent volatility of 3.9% over the past five days, indicating potential speculative opportunities [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators collectively signal a "buy" with a strength rating of 8; however, several oscillators are in a "neutral" position [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, also indicating a neutral market sentiment towards HKEX's short-term direction [1] Group 3: Derivative Products - Historical performance of HKEX-related warrants and certificates shows significant leverage effects, with products like the Morgan Stanley bear certificate (66719) rising by 20% and UBS bear certificate (60541) by 24% following a 1.73% drop in HKEX [3] - Current warrants available for HKEX include high-leverage options such as the Societe Generale call warrant (16900) with a leverage of 15.6 times and a strike price of HKD 484.08, suitable for investors seeking high potential returns [5][6] - For bearish positions, UBS put warrant (18808) offers a leverage of 9.6 times with a strike price of HKD 368.48, providing options for investors anticipating further price adjustments [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently at a crossroads, with HKEX needing to stabilize above the support level of HKD 436 or risk further declines to HKD 427 [7] - Investors are encouraged to consider their trading strategies, whether opting for warrants or bull/bear certificates, based on their market outlook [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects Hong Kong Stock Exchange's investment income for Q3 to be approximately half of the H1 level, influenced by a decline in HIBOR, a reduction in external investment portfolios, and revisions to margin funding interest-sharing agreements [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The estimated southbound trading accounts for a year-on-year growth of 30% to 40% in the average daily turnover (ADT) [1] - Southbound trading and overall ADT will determine short-term stock price movements [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts the ADT for October to December to be around HKD 260 billion, aligning closely with consensus earnings per share [1] - The firm believes that southbound trading is a unique factor contributing significantly to overall ADT during this upward cycle [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is uncertainty in the market regarding the future flow of funds in southbound trading, despite its advantages such as diversification, unique stocks, and valuation discounts [1] - Goldman Sachs remains confident that the flow and participation in southbound trading will structurally increase [1] Group 4: Price Target Adjustment - The 12-month price target has been raised by 4% from HKD 524 to HKD 544, predicting a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for the fiscal year 2026, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, both equity indices and CGB futures fell, and most commodities fell [10][13]. - The Financial Times reported that Chinese Internet regulators have instructed companies to terminate orders for NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000D chips, and the MFA stated China's stance [40]. - HKEX and ADX signed a MoU to explore capital market cooperation, and the SFC and UAE's SCA signed a MoU to expand cross - border market access for public funds [41][42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 18, equity indices and CGB futures dropped, and most commodities declined. Among Chinese commodity futures, the top three gainers were corn starch, egg, and corn, while the top three decliners were TSR 20, glass, and coking coal. Among Chinese financial futures, equity indices and CGB futures fell [10][11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On September 18, silicon metal decreased by 0.2% to 8905 yuan/ton. Supply continued to rise, mainly from the northwest and southwest regions, while demand improved slightly month - on - month. Inventory might face accumulation pressure [16][17][18]. 1.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On September 18, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.7% to 72880 yuan/ton. There was a supply - demand gap but smaller than expected. Supply was increasing, and demand picked up in September, with social inventory slightly decreasing and warehouse receipts recovering [23][24][26]. 1.2.3 TSR 20 - On September 18, TSR 20 decreased by 2.3% to 12300 yuan/ton. It was difficult to break through the previous high in the short term without further bullish drivers. Supply might increase, and demand and downstream purchasing willingness needed to be observed. If prices couldn't break through the previous high in mid - to - late September, the bullish stance would be abandoned [31][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Financial Times reported that Chinese Internet regulators asked companies to terminate orders for NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000D chips. NVIDIA's CEO was disappointed, and the MFA stated China's stance on maintaining global industrial and supply chain stability [40]. 2.2 Industry News - HKEX and ADX signed a MoU to explore cooperation in capital markets, including market promotion, ETFs, etc. The SFC and UAE's SCA signed a MoU to expand cross - border market access for public funds under the MRF arrangement [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) stock price is significantly undervalued due to the structural boost from southbound capital, despite underperforming major indices in the past month [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Impact - Southbound capital is driving unprecedented growth in the average daily trading volume of cash stocks, which is a key profit driver for HKEX [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume has reached 318 billion HKD in September, surpassing 279 billion HKD in August and 254 billion HKD year-to-date [3]. - Southbound capital contributes approximately 30% to 40% of the year-on-year growth in total trading volume, accounting for about 25% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for HKEX for the years 2025-2027 by 3% to 4% [4][5]. - The updated EPS forecasts are as follows: 2025 from 12.63 HKD to 12.97 HKD, 2026 from 13.05 HKD to 13.61 HKD, and 2027 from 13.96 HKD to 14.45 HKD [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Price Target - The target price for HKEX has been increased from 524 HKD to 544 HKD, reflecting a 4% upward adjustment based on the revised earnings forecasts [2][4]. - Historical valuation comparisons indicate that the current stock price is slightly below the median level of historical cycles, while the earnings growth outlook remains strong [6][7]. - A 20-year regression model suggests that the theoretical stock price should be around 590 HKD based on current trading activity levels, indicating significant potential for price correction [7].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,523.97, down by 20.88 points or 0.08% as of September 18, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,568.27 and a low of 26,422.86 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 74.7354 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.106, up by 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 642.805, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings saw a decrease of HKD 19.500, or 2.95%, with an ADR price of 642.805 [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) decreased by HKD 3.200, or 1.98%, with an ADR price of 157.960 [3] - HSBC Holdings increased by HKD 0.600, or 0.56%, with an ADR price of 108.106 [3] - China Construction Bank decreased by HKD 0.190, or 2.42%, with an ADR price of 7.641 [3] - AIA Group saw a decline of HKD 1.300, or 1.74%, with an ADR price of 73.536 [3] - NetEase experienced a drop of HKD 6.000, or 2.44%, with an ADR price of 237.834 [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by HKD 14.000, or 3.06%, with an ADR price of 446.269 [3] - Ping An Insurance decreased by HKD 1.500, or 2.69%, with an ADR price of 54.170 [3] - JD.com saw a decline of HKD 2.400, or 1.76%, with an ADR price of 137.583 [3] - Kuaishou Technology dropped by HKD 1.850, or 2.37%, with an ADR price of 72.913 [3]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Hong Kong government aims to leverage its advantages of being "backed by the motherland and connected to the world" to attract more international institutions, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for Belt and Road Initiative projects [1] - The Chief Executive's policy address emphasizes the development of AI as a core industry for Hong Kong's future, promoting deep integration of AI across various sectors [1] Group 2: Financial Market Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's CEO stated that the measures proposed in the policy address will enrich the variety of products in securities, fixed income, currency, commodity, and carbon markets, promoting market diversification [1] - The policy address includes plans to optimize the "New Capital Investor Visa Scheme," increasing the allowable investment in non-residential properties from HKD 10 million to HKD 15 million, while maintaining the residential property investment limit at HKD 10 million [4][5] Group 3: Real Estate Market Impact - The relaxation of the investment threshold for residential properties is expected to attract more talent and new capital to Hong Kong, creating more business and investment opportunities [5] - The increase in the allowable investment for non-residential properties is anticipated to further stimulate the luxury and non-residential property markets [5][6] Group 4: Capital Market Enhancements - The policy address proposes measures to enhance the capital market, including improving the listing mechanism and exploring a shortened stock settlement cycle to T+1, which aligns with global capital market trends [6][7] - Suggestions to deepen the capital market and enhance liquidity include extending trading hours for Hong Kong stocks and reducing stamp duty on RMB transactions to attract more international investors [7][8] Group 5: Regulatory Support - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission supports the measures in the policy address, which aim to strengthen the stock market and optimize the listing system, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as a preferred listing destination [8] - The collaboration between the Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority aims to create a comprehensive roadmap for the fixed income and currency markets, enhancing Hong Kong's appeal to global investors [8]