港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中国海外发展（00688） 证券研究报告 权益销售投资双第一，引领行业破局——中国海外发展 24 年报点评 利润受行业波动影响，分红比例提升 24 年公司实现收入约 1851.54 亿元，同比-8.58%；归母净利润 156.36 亿 元，同比-38.95%，核心利润 157.2 亿元，同比-33.5%；基本每股盈利 1.43 元，同比-38.9%。24 年公司毛利率 17.7%，较 23 年下滑 2.6pct；净利率 9.6%较23 年下降 3.8pct。公司拟派末期股息每股30 港仙，全年合计 60港 仙，分红比例提升至 38.5%。 注：营业收入、EBITDA、归母净利润均为人民币，EPS 为人民币/股 权益销售升至行业第一，投资保持强度良好 销售端，24 年公司合约销售额 3106 亿元，同比+0.3%；销售面积 1152 万 平，同比-13.8%，市占率较 23 年提升 0.55pct 达 3.21%；权益金额 2858 亿元，同比+2.5%，权益比例较23 年提升 2pct 至 92%，克而瑞百强销售权 益金额排名较 23 年上升 1 位至行业第 1，公司在下行市场实现 ...

中国海外发展 （00688.HK） 2025 年 04 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 13.420 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 18.580/10.540 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,468.80 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,468.80 | | 总股本(亿股) | 109.45 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 109.45 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 16.3 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 中国海外发展 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《销售市占率逆势提升，商业物业收 入保持增长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 权益销售及拿地金额排名首位，商业收入稳健增长 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S07905220 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中国海外发展（00688） 证券研究报告 权益销售投资双第一，引领行业破局——中国海外发展 24 年报点评 利润受行业波动影响，分红比例提升 | 风险提示：业务拓展不及预期、业务经营存在不确定性、政策调控不确定性 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务数据与估值 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 202,524.07 | 185,154.03 | 175,896.33 | 167,101.51 | 170,443.54 | | 增长率( %) | 12.31 | -8.58 | -5.00 | -5.00 | 2.00 | | EBI TDA（百万元） | 41,930.54 | 30,777.26 | 29,963.40 | 28,785.02 | 29,013.14 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 25,609.84 | 15,635.66 | 16,371.57 | 16,909.99 | 17,686.41 | | 增长率( %) ...

中国海外发展 （00688.HK） 2025 年 04 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 13.420 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 18.580/10.540 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,468.80 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,468.80 | | 总股本(亿股) | 109.45 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 109.45 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 16.3 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 中国海外发展 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《单月销售数据同比提升明显，项目 实力夯实经营稳定性—港股公司信息 更新报告》-2025.1.8 《销售市占率逆势提升，商业物业收 入保持增长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 权益销售及拿地金额排名首位，商业收入稳健增长 权益销售额行业首位，拿地聚焦一线城市 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for China Overseas Development (0688.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 13.9 [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in sales, ranking second in overall sales and first in equity sales within the industry, with a market share increase [5]. - The company focuses on key cities, with 85% of sales coming from first-tier and key second-tier cities, achieving significant sales records in high-end residential projects [5]. - The financial health of the company is strong, with a low average financing cost of 3.1% and a cash reserve of HKD 124.17 billion, which supports its market opportunities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 185.15 billion, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 15.64 billion, down 38.9% year-on-year, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.30 per share [3][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 194.41 billion, with a growth forecast of 5.0%, and net profit is expected to rise to HKD 16.01 billion, reflecting a 2.4% increase [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 18% for the next few years, while the net margin is expected to be around 9% [10]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a record sales figure of HKD 387 billion for a single project, with an average selling price increase of 24.4% to HKD 33,810 per square meter [5]. - The company acquired 22 land parcels in 2024, with a total investment of HKD 80.6 billion, leading the industry in land acquisition [5]. Future Projections - The report projects a gradual recovery in sales and profitability, with EPS estimates adjusted to HKD 1.46 for 2025 and HKD 1.49 for 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing industry adjustments [5][10].

中国海外发展有限公司(0688.HK)(以下简称中国海外发展)今日发布2024年度全年业绩。 信用评级逆势提升，债务结构持续优化。中国海外发展继续保持稳健的财务状况，年内逆势获标普全球 上调信用评级至A-／稳定，成为唯一双A国际信用评级的中国房企。与此同时，集团进一步压降有息负 债规模，净偿还债务175.5亿元，期末资产负债率为55.8%，净借贷比率为29.2%，处于行业最低区间， 继续保持在"绿档"。 2024年，在房地产市场持续下行的背景下，中国海外发展实现收入1851.5亿元(人民币，下同)，税前溢 利264.1亿元，核心股东应占溢利157.2亿元，继续保持行业领先水平。与此同时，该集团董事局宣布派 发末期股息每股港币30仙，连同中期股息每股港币30仙，全年合计派发股息每股港币60仙，派息率 38.2%。 现金充裕，成本管控优势增强。数据显示，中国海外发展去年经营现金净流入创新高达到464.5亿元， 在手现金1241.7亿元，现金占总资产升至13.7%，现金充裕，发展动能强劲。 数据显示，中国海外发展实现合约销售金额3107亿元，同比增长0.3%；国内市场占有率达到3.21%，较 2023年末提升0.5 ...

中国海外发展有限公司("中国海外发展"或"公司"，股份代号：0688.HK)于今日公布2024年度全年业 绩。 2024年，房地产市场持续下行，公司统筹发展与安全，以进促稳，持续为股东创造价值。公司实现收入 人民币1,851.5亿元，税前溢利为人民币264.1亿元，核心股东应占溢利为人民币157.2亿元，保持行业领 先水平。董事局宣布派发末期股息每股港币30仙，连同中期股息每股港币30仙，全年合计派发股息每股 港币60仙，派息率38.2%，持续为股东创造稳健回报。 权益销售行业第一，逆势领先 公司系列公司实现合约销售金额人民币3,107亿元，同比增长0.3%，是中国十强房企中唯一实现销售增 长的公司，权益销售额排名位居行业第一(中国指数研究院的统计数据)。国内市场占有率达到3.21%， 较2023年末提升0.55个百分点。 重点市场市占率领先，标杆项目逆势热销 好产品是"工科中海"口碑的来源，是公司的竞争优势之一。公司的主要产品就是房子，"好房子"建设写 入了2025年的政府工作报告。 新时代的"好房子"建设标准，就是要打造一部现代版的"营造法式"，从好设计、好建造、好材料、好运 维几个方面，全面提升建筑性能 ...

集团九个商业项目投入运营，商业物业运营总建筑面积增加30万平方米，商业物业收入继续保持较快增 长，实现收入71.3亿元，同比增长12.1%。市场调整下行，不确定性增强，集团保持投资定力，聚焦高 能级城市的优质资产，精準投资，全年在12个中国内地城市获取22宗地块，总购地金额806.1亿元，权 益购地金额696.3亿元，新增购地金额行业第一，四个一线城市权益购地金额占比约73.5%，货量结构优 势更加突出。 2024年，集团系列公司实现合约物业销售额3106.9亿元，同比增长0.3%，是中国十强房企中唯一实现销 售增长的公司，国内市场占有率较2023年末提升0.55个百分点达到3.21%。中国指数研究院数据显示， 2024年集团系列公司的权益销售额居行业第一。 集团继续保持稳健的财务状况与强劲的成本优势。于2024年12月31日，集团的资产负债率为55.8%，净 借贷比率为29.2%，继续保持在"绿档"。集团积极管理有息借贷规模，提早偿还2027年1月到期的俱乐部 贷款港币121.1亿元，净偿还债务175.5亿元，有效优化债务结构，债务占比提升至82.3%。集团持有银 行存款及现金为1241.7亿元，经营性现金 ...

Financial Performance - The group's total revenue was RMB 185.15 billion, compared to RMB 202.52 billion in the previous year, reflecting a decrease[4]. - The profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 15.64 billion, with a core profit of RMB 15.72 billion after excluding the impact of property revaluation and foreign exchange[4]. - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.43, down from RMB 2.34 in the previous year[4]. - The company reported a year-on-year decrease in total revenue of approximately 9.5% from 2023 to 2024[14]. - Basic and diluted earnings attributable to shareholders for 2024 were RMB 15,635,658, a decline of 38.9% from RMB 25,609,837 in 2023[21]. - The group's audited revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 185.15 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 15.64 billion[29]. - The group's revenue for the year was RMB 185.15 billion, with an operating profit of RMB 26.69 billion and a gross profit margin of 17.7%[37]. Property Sales and Development - The group's property sales amounted to RMB 310.69 billion, a 0.3% increase, with a corresponding sales area of 11.49 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year[3]. - In 2024, the group achieved contract property sales of RMB 310.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, making it the only top ten Chinese real estate company to report sales growth[28]. - The average contracted sales price per square meter was RMB 27,047, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%[38]. - The total construction area completed in 30 cities in mainland China and Hong Kong reached 10.59 million square meters[41]. - The group launched high-end products targeting improvement housing demand, with notable sales including RMB 38.73 billion from the Shanghai Jianguo East Road project, setting a national record for single project annual sales[30]. Land Acquisition - The group acquired 22 new land parcels in 12 cities in mainland China, with a total land reserve area of 4.16 million square meters and a total land cost of RMB 80.61 billion[3]. - The group has consistently ranked first in land acquisition value for two consecutive years, with a focus on high-quality assets in first-tier cities[33]. - The group acquired 22 land parcels in 12 cities in mainland China, with a total land acquisition cost of RMB 80.61 billion, ranking first in the industry for new land purchases[31]. Commercial Property - The group's commercial property revenue increased by 12.1% to RMB 7.13 billion[3]. - The revenue from external customers in the commercial property segment was RMB 6,361,835 thousand for the year ended December 31, 2023[14]. - The group's commercial property revenue increased by 12.1% year-on-year to RMB 7.13 billion, with office rental income of RMB 3.57 billion and shopping center rental income of RMB 2.26 billion[47]. - Nine new commercial properties were put into operation, increasing the total construction area by approximately 300,000 square meters[47]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, total borrowings were RMB 241.56 billion, with a net gearing ratio of 29.2% and an average financing cost of 3.1%[3]. - The group's total assets less current liabilities stood at RMB 643.40 billion, compared to RMB 637.90 billion in the previous year[7]. - The group's total equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 380.61 billion, an increase from RMB 373.02 billion in the previous year[7]. - As of December 31, 2024, the group's net current assets amounted to RMB 373.95 billion, with a current ratio of 2.4 times and a net debt ratio of 29.2%[49]. - The total interest expense for the year decreased by RMB 0.93 billion, with an average financing cost of 3.1%, placing it in the lowest range within the industry[49]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.30 per share, totaling HKD 0.60 for the year[3]. - The proposed final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024, is HKD 0.30 per share, totaling approximately RMB 3,053,623,000, pending shareholder approval[22]. Accounting and Compliance - The company has not adopted any new accounting standards that are expected to have a significant impact on its financial statements[11]. - The company has maintained the classification of its liabilities as current or non-current without any changes due to the recent accounting standard revisions[10]. - The company has begun evaluating the impact of newly issued accounting standards, but significant effects on the consolidated financial statements are not anticipated[11]. - The audit and risk management committee reviewed the accounting policies and audited financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[66]. - Ernst & Young confirmed that the financial figures in the performance announcement align with the audited financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[67]. Operational Highlights - The group delivered over 72,000 residential units on time, achieving a delivery rate of 100%[56]. - The group has accumulated 673 projects certified under various green building standards, covering a total area of over 11 million square meters[56]. - The group has expanded its light asset management scale, acquiring 18 external light asset management projects in major cities[47]. Credit Rating and Financing - The group received an upgrade in its credit rating from S&P Global from BBB+/Stable to A-/Stable, making it the only real estate company in China with an A- credit rating[49]. - The company issued RMB 3,000 million bonds with a coupon rate of 2.68% on April 23, 2024, maturing on April 24, 2029, to repay existing debts[61]. - The company redeemed RMB 999.2 million of bonds with a coupon rate of 3.85% issued on March 23, 2021, with no remaining value[62]. - The company redeemed RMB 2,000.2 million of bonds with a coupon rate of 3.60% issued on June 23, 2021, with no remaining value[62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in land prices in Hangzhou, with the city witnessing a rapid increase in land auction prices, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][5][9]. Group 1: Land Price Trends - Hangzhou's land price has seen a record increase from 77,409 yuan per square meter to 88,029 yuan per square meter within three days, marking a significant rise in land value [4][5]. - The recent land auction on March 28, 2025, resulted in a total revenue of approximately 14.09 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 49.2% across the sold plots [5][6]. - The new land king in Hangzhou was acquired by Jianfa for 3.4 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 115%, highlighting the competitive nature of the land market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The land market in Hangzhou has shown a noticeable increase in activity, with developers actively participating in auctions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6][9]. - The government has strategically managed land supply, creating a competitive environment for developers, which has contributed to the rising land prices [6][7]. - The trend of frequent "land kings" in Hangzhou is attributed to a combination of limited land supply and strong demand from developers, particularly in core urban areas [9][11]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The increase in land prices in Hangzhou is part of a broader trend observed in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, where similar "land kings" have emerged [3][14]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improved transaction volumes and a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities [13][14]. - Developers are increasingly focusing on core urban areas, leading to heightened competition for prime land, which is reflected in the rising auction prices [11][12].