Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on risk resolution and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5][8] - The overall tone of the conference is the most positive of the year, indicating a responsive approach to the industry's downward trend [14] - The policy shift from "stimulating demand" to "digesting inventory and optimizing supply" reflects a strategic change in real estate policy [14] Summary by Sections Economic Work Conference Insights - The conference held on December 11, 2025, updated its stance on real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and managing risks effectively [5][8] - Key measures include controlling new land supply, revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, and promoting the construction of quality housing [5][8] Policy Evolution - The shift in policy from "stimulating demand" to "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" has been noted since April 2024 [14] - The emphasis on "risk prevention" suggests that 2026 may see intensified contradictions within the real estate sector [14] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" [6] - Notable companies include Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, all showing potential for strong performance [6][17] Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies for investment, indicating a focus on both development and property management sectors [17]

12月12日，受中央经济工作会议重磅利好消息影响，市场情绪明显回暖，港股三大指数集体收涨，恒生指数涨1.75%盘中重回26000点，国企指数、恒生科 技指数分别上涨1.62%及1.87%。 盘面上，大型科技股集体上涨助力市场上行，网易涨超4%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴涨超2%，小米、百度、京东、快手涨超1%；电力设备股走强，东方电气涨 超13%；大金融股(银行、保险、券商)亦全线上涨，中国太保、中信证券、中国银河、交通银行涨幅靠前，香港本地股银行股渣打集团、汇丰控股再度刷新 历史新高，汇丰市值更是站上2万亿港元；白银、黄金价格继续飙涨，黄金股活跃，中国白银集团涨近6%；餐饮股、内房股因政策利好飘红，影视股、航空 航天、乳制品、脑机接口概念、手游股等纷纷上涨。 另一方面，药品板块下挫，海普瑞跌超7%；环保、铁路及公路、国内零售股、烟草、油气生产商等少数板块下跌。 | | | | 汽车 | 地产发展商 +1.58% | 發品 -0.59% | 服装 +0.60% | 互动购 +1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 +0.53% | 线上零售 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks in key areas, with a focus on city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve quality [2][4]. - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate, particularly during a period of monetary easing [4][12]. - The report anticipates further supportive policies for both supply and demand in the real estate market, including potential reductions in mortgage rates and optimization of purchase restrictions [4][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report underscores the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote stable economic growth and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6]. - It suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [4][8]. Real Estate Market - The report notes that the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market reflects a dual focus on halting price declines and addressing existing risks [4][12]. - It mentions the introduction of policies aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [4][12]. - The report also discusses the need for reform in the housing provident fund system and the promotion of high-quality housing development [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the value reassessment of shopping centers and the new "good housing" sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for real estate and property management [4][12]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [4][12]. - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao [4][12]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Co., China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments [4][12]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Service, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [4][12]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4][12].

3月18日，中海地产以75.02亿元的竞得海淀区树村地块，溢价率27.93%，楼面价约10.23万元/㎡，打破 了北京土地市场历史单价纪录。 室内为轻法式宫廷风，浅色奢装，支持定制化空间改造。 据悉，该项目占地3.9万㎡，容积率仅1.6，打造16栋4-6层洋房+叠拼，限高18米，共278户。南区四排规 划为低密洋房，主力户型为建面约220㎡、260㎡的大三面宽户型，以及300㎡四面宽旗舰产品；北区四 排为叠拼产品，面积350㎡-480㎡，其中，下叠为1-2层+地下室，上叠为4-5层+露台，中间层三层为370 ㎡大平层，全盘仅14套，面宽26米。 近日，中海树村项目公布案名——中海.安澜北京。 外立面采用玻璃幕墙+铝板+天然奢石，新中式坡屋顶设计，呼应圆明园风貌；室内为轻法式宫廷风， 浅色奢装，支持定制化空间改造。 ...

中海深圳超总地块的地面情况。 黄指南/摄 本报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 中海落下了深圳超总板块的第二子。 12月全国土拍进入博弈深水区，广深市场的热度尤为突出，成为行业观察市场复苏动能的核心窗口。 作为深圳市本月首场土拍的重头戏，两宗宅地均采用"价高者得"的纯市场化竞价规则，而南山区T207- 0068宗地无疑是全场最受瞩目的"明星"。 在深圳豪宅市场热度未减的当下，这宗地块不仅是超总板块继深湾玖序后的第二宗宅地，更成为观测房 企投资信心与战略布局的关键样本。 从地理坐标来看，T207-0068宗地的稀缺性不言而喻。其坐落于超总核心区白石二道与深湾二路东南 侧，1.18万平方米的土地上承载着4.11万平方米的建筑体量，住宅容积率被控制在3.1，起始价22.36亿 元。 根据法定图则，地块三面被写字楼环绕，东侧紧邻中海操盘的深湾玖序，南侧为TCL大厦，西侧是天音 大厦，北侧则与神州数码相望。 保利发展历经76轮竞价加仓广州海珠，紧随其后，中海以95轮激烈角逐、超42%的溢价率斩获深圳超级 总部基地第二宗宅地，两大央企的密集出手，将区域土拍的白热化态势推向顶点。 "就深圳市场而言，中海的市场感知能力 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华润啤酒-R(80291)、友邦保险-R(81299)、安踏体育-R(82020)上一交易日沽空比率 位于前三位，分别为100.00%、100.00%、100.00%。阿里巴巴-SW(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)、建设银行 (00939)的沽空金额位居前三，分别为14.85 亿元、11.63 亿元、9.21 亿元。华润啤酒-R(80291)、友邦保 险-R(81299)、春立医疗(01858)的偏离值位居前三，分别为37.08%、34.84%、34.29%。 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率 | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华润啤酒-R(80291) | 31.21 万元 | 100.00% | 37.08% | | 友邦保险-R(81299) | 8.38 万元 | 100.00% | 34.84% | | 春立医疗(01858) | 928.20 万元 | 40.92% | 34.29% | | 百度集团-SWR(89888) | 279.32 万元 | 69.26% | 32.64% | | () | 6025.95 万元 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition for high-end real estate in Shenzhen has intensified, particularly with the recent auction of a prime land parcel in Nanshan, which is expected to be developed into luxury residential units, marking a new phase in the luxury property market [1][8]. Group 1: Auction Details - The T207-0068 land parcel in Nanshan was sold for 3.186 billion, with a premium rate of 42.49%, resulting in a comprehensive floor price of approximately 77,400 per square meter and a saleable floor price of about 87,000 per square meter [1][5]. - The land has an area of 11,833.61 square meters and a residential saleable area of 36,584 square meters, with a height limit of 100 meters and a plot ratio of 3.1 [3][6]. Group 2: Market Context - The new land acquisition by China Overseas Land & Investment (中海) is expected to complement its existing luxury projects, potentially creating a product hierarchy similar to the previously developed Deep Bay Jiu Xu [5][7]. - The competitive landscape has expanded from the original "Hau Hai-She Kou" area to include "Hau Hai-She Kou-Shen Chao Zong," indicating a broader market for luxury properties [8][9]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The entry of the new land parcel is likely to intensify competition among luxury projects, with multiple developments in the vicinity, including Shenzhen Bay Luan Xi and CITIC Xin Yue Bay, collectively offering over 1,800 units [7][8]. - The high acquisition cost and the need to maintain luxury positioning will compel developers to enhance product quality, such as upgrading exterior finishes and offering high-end furnishings to attract buyers [10][11]. Group 4: Sales Performance - In contrast to the inventory issues faced in Beijing, Shenzhen's luxury properties have been performing well, with many projects nearing sell-out status, indicating a strong demand in the market [12][17]. - China Overseas has successfully launched multiple projects in Shenzhen, with a total supply of 10,845 units since 2020, leaving only 439 units unsold as of December 2025 [17][18].