[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in January 2026, but there are signs of recovery in the second-hand housing market in key cities, which may stabilize market expectations and lead to a potential "small spring" after the Spring Festival, especially with supportive policies in place [1][12]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026 [2][8]. - 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 100% [8][10]. - Notably, companies like Junyi Holdings and Bangtai Group saw significant increases in sales, with Junyi Holdings reporting a staggering growth of 757.4% [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance with a transaction area of approximately 8.1 million square meters, while the second-hand housing market saw a 16% month-on-month increase and a 33% year-on-year increase in transaction area [12]. - The central government has introduced various supportive policies focusing on urban renewal, financing optimization, and tax incentives to stimulate the real estate market [12][13]. Group 3: New Entrants and Rankings - In January 2026, seven new companies entered the top 100 list, with CITIC City Opening making a notable entry into the top 30 [5][6]. - The sales performance of new entrants indicates that some small and medium-sized private enterprises are managing to maintain stable operations and achieve growth despite market challenges [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China achieved a total sales amount of 165.45 billion yuan, indicating a stable market despite the traditional off-season impact, with signs of recovery in the second-hand housing market in key cities [1][14]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Poly Developments ranked first with a total sales amount of 156.0 billion yuan and a sales area of 701,000 square meters [6][21]. - China Overseas Land & Investment followed closely with a sales amount of 144.8 billion yuan [2][23]. - Among the top 100 companies, 32 reported year-on-year growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 100% [7][22]. Group 2: Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance due to seasonal factors, while the second-hand housing market began to show signs of recovery [1][14]. - Policy measures from the central government are aimed at urban renewal, financing optimization, and tax incentives, which are expected to support the revitalization of existing resources and alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [13]. Group 3: Company Rankings - The top five companies by sales amount in January 2026 were: 1. Poly Developments: 156.0 billion yuan 2. China Overseas Land & Investment: 144.8 billion yuan 3. China Vanke: 116.5 billion yuan 4. China Resources Land: 86.9 billion yuan 5. China Merchants Shekou: 76.7 billion yuan [2][6][23]. Group 4: Sales Data Overview - The sales data reflects the total sales amount and sales area for the top companies, with Poly Developments leading in both metrics [6][21]. - The data is based on contract signing figures, excluding deposits or subscription data, and covers the period from January 1 to January 31, 2026 [6].

Group 1 - Over ten real estate companies have experienced executive changes within just over a month since the beginning of 2026 [2][3] - Notable companies undergoing changes include Joy City Holdings, Zhongliang Holdings, New World Development, Rongsheng Development, Bright Realty, and others, with reasons ranging from retirement to personal resignations [2][3] - The adjustments in management are closely aligned with the companies' business development and strategic needs, indicating a trend of organizational restructuring within the industry [2][3] Group 2 - The trend of executive turnover in real estate companies has been ongoing since last year and continues into 2026, with significant changes reported [3][4] - For instance, Joy City Holdings announced the resignation of director Chen Lang due to retirement, while Zhongliang Holdings saw the resignation of He Jian and the appointment of Zhao Peng as new executive director [3][4] - Other companies like Rongsheng Development and Bright Realty have also reported multiple executive resignations for personal reasons, reflecting a broader pattern of leadership changes across the sector [3][4] Group 3 - A new wave of organizational restructuring is occurring, with 21 real estate companies implementing 31 adjustments since January 2025 [5][6] - Major firms such as Poly, China Overseas, and Longfor are undergoing multiple rounds of restructuring, indicating a shift towards optimizing organizational efficiency [5][6] - The adjustments aim to enhance resource allocation and core business management, reflecting a transition towards quality-focused operations in the real estate sector [6][7] Group 4 - The frequent changes in management are indicative of the broader challenges faced by the real estate industry, including sales pressure and financial losses since 2022 [7] - The need for management adjustments is driven by the shift from large-scale development to refined operations and asset-light models, necessitating new leadership with different skill sets [7] - Companies are now focusing on financial security, operational efficiency, and precise investment strategies to adapt to the evolving market landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing significant executive turnover, with over ten companies undergoing leadership changes within a month, reflecting a broader trend of organizational restructuring and strategic realignment in response to market pressures [2][3][7]. Group 1: Executive Changes - More than ten real estate companies, including Joy City Holdings, Zhongliang Holdings, and New World Development, have reported executive changes since the beginning of 2026, with reasons ranging from retirement to personal resignations [2][3]. - Joy City Holdings announced the resignation of director Chen Lang due to reaching retirement age, while Zhongliang Holdings saw the departure of executive director He Jian and the appointment of Zhao Peng as his successor [3]. - Other companies like Rongsheng Development and Guangming Real Estate have also experienced frequent executive changes, indicating a trend of leadership turnover across the sector [4][5]. Group 2: Organizational Restructuring - The beginning of the year is a critical period for real estate companies to implement reforms, with 21 companies undergoing 31 organizational adjustments since January 2025 [5]. - Major firms such as Poly, China Overseas, and Longfor have initiated new rounds of optimization adjustments, with China Overseas restructuring its management model from a three-tier to a two-tier system [6]. - The adjustments aim to enhance resource allocation and core business management, reflecting a shift towards quality-focused operations in response to market challenges [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The frequent changes in leadership are indicative of the industry's response to ongoing sales pressures and financial losses experienced by publicly listed real estate companies since 2022 [7]. - The shift from large-scale development to refined operations and asset-light models necessitates new leadership capable of navigating these changes [7]. - Companies are urged to focus on financial security, operational efficiency, and precise investment strategies to adapt to the evolving economic landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a sales amount of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026 [1][14][16]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 165.45 billion yuan [14][16]. - The sales performance threshold for the top 100 real estate companies has decreased compared to January 2025 [17]. - Seven companies entered the top 100 list for the first time, with CITIC City Opening making it into the top 30 [21]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Growth - A total of 32 companies among the top 100 experienced year-on-year growth in January 2026, with 10 companies seeing growth rates exceeding 100% [25]. - Notable performers include Junyi Holdings with a growth rate of 757.4% and Haian Group with 488.2% [27]. Group 3: Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with a transaction area of approximately 8.1 million square meters in 50 key cities [27]. - The second-hand housing market, however, saw a recovery with a transaction area of approximately 8.1 million square meters, reflecting a 16% month-on-month increase and a 33% year-on-year increase [27]. Group 4: Policy Support - In January 2026, the central government released various policies focusing on urban renewal, financing optimization, and tax incentives to support the real estate market [28]. - Financial support measures include a reduction in the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25% and a decrease in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties to 30% [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [4]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is being reintroduced in Shanghai, which is expected to effectively stabilize housing prices and stimulate market activity [10][26]. - The policy focuses on acquiring second-hand homes to address inventory issues and enhance market liquidity, with specific criteria for eligible properties [10][26]. - The anticipated financial impact includes a potential market transaction increase of approximately 1,080 billion yuan, representing a 9% boost to total market transactions and a 24% increase in new home sales [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Background of the "Old-for-New" Policy - The central government has emphasized the need for policies that control inventory and improve supply, with the "old-for-new" initiative aligning closely with these goals [10][11]. 2. Historical Experience of "Old-for-New" - The "old-for-new" model is categorized into acquisition and assistance types, with the acquisition model being more effective in driving sales [16][21]. - The acquisition model has been implemented in over 20 cities, with a total of 14,520 units identified for trial [16][21]. 3. Shanghai's "Old-for-New" Policy - The policy aims to stabilize housing prices by focusing on second-hand homes, with specific requirements for properties built before 2000 and under 400 million yuan [3][10]. - The estimated funding requirement for the acquisition of 27,000 units is approximately 54 billion yuan, leveraging a 1:2 replacement ratio to maximize market impact [3][10]. 4. Feasibility of the Latest "Old-for-New" Policy - Shanghai is positioned as a key city for the implementation of this policy due to its strong government credibility and market stability [3][10]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has shown signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the average transaction cycle to 22.2 months and a 2% month-on-month price rebound [3][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current environment, characterized by improving transaction volumes and prices in the second-hand market, presents significant investment opportunities [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Land & Investment's project, Zhonghai Huide Li, is facing scrutiny due to design violations related to gas pipeline installations in its duplex units, raising safety concerns for homeowners [2][3][5]. Group 1: Project Details - Zhonghai Huide Li is designed as a garden-style apartment with an opening price of approximately 83,000 yuan per square meter, and the project has already been delivered [2]. - Homeowners have reported that the gas pipelines were improperly installed in underground storage spaces, which were intended to serve as kitchens, leading to gas supply interruptions during renovations [3][5]. - Similar design issues have been identified in another project, Zhonghai Fuhua Li, where duplex units also feature non-compliant gas pipeline installations [6]. Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - According to the "Gas Engineering Project Specification," gas pipelines should not be installed in underground spaces where gas could accumulate, and the "Residential Project Specification" prohibits gas installations in bedrooms and vertical shafts [5][6]. - Homeowners have expressed concerns about the safety implications of these design violations, which could affect living conditions and pose risks [3][5]. Group 3: Market Impact - The market response has seen a decline in the resale prices of units in Zhonghai Huide Li, with a notable drop from initial prices exceeding 10 million yuan for some units [9]. - China Overseas Land & Investment has been actively acquiring land, with a reported land acquisition amount of 90.7 billion yuan in 2025, leading the industry [9][10]. - The company ranks fourth in sales in Beijing's real estate market, with a sales scale of 14.816 billion yuan in 2025 [10]. Group 4: Ongoing Issues - The company has faced multiple controversies in recent years, including complaints about reduced quality and discrepancies between delivery standards and marketing claims [12]. - Previous projects have also encountered issues, such as reduced exterior finishes and noise problems due to delayed installations of soundproofing measures [12].

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]